Scotland’s First Minister Humza Yousaf is battling to save his job as he faces a knife-edge no-confidence vote.

The SNP leader triggered a crisis at Holyrood after he dramatically brought the power sharing deal with the Scottish Greens to an end.

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The backlash has plunged Mr Yousaf’s future into doubt, although party colleagues insist he will not resign.

How did we get here?

The Bute House Agreement – signed back in 2021 and named after the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh – brought the Green Party into government for the first time anywhere in the UK.

It gave the SNP a majority at Holyrood when the votes of its MSPs were combined with those of the seven Green members, and also made Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater junior ministers.

Without it, the SNP would need to have operated as a minority administration at Holyrood.

What caused the relationship to sour?

There had been mounting tensions between the largest party at Holyrood and their junior partners in government.

The Greens were angered at the SNP-led administration’s recent decision to ditch a key climate change target.

That, combined with the decision to pause the prescription of new puberty blockers to under-18s at Scotland’s only gender clinic, resulted in the Greens announcing they would have a vote on the future of the power sharing deal.

What brought things to a head?

Mr Yousaf decided to pull the plug on the agreement – arguing it had “served its purpose” – prompting a major fallout with his former allies, who vowed to back a no-confidence motion in his leadership proposed by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross.

So how do the numbers stack up?

Tight to say the least.

As the leader of a now minority government, Mr Yousaf’s fate is set to depend on just one vote – that of a former SNP leadership rival.

In the Scottish parliament, the SNP has 63 seats out of 129, two short of an outright majority.

The Greens voting in favour of the no-confidence motion would mean 64 MSPs do not back the first minister.

The presiding officer Alison Johnstone, the equivalent of the Commons speaker, traditionally does not vote and would only so so in the event of a tiebreak and would be expected to support the status quo – so back the first minister.

That leaves Ash Regan, the one-time SNP leadership rival to Mr Yousaf who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last October.

She has written to the first minister, setting out demands in exchange for her support.

When will the vote be held?

Any no-confidence vote in Mr Yousaf is likely to take place next week, with timings to be confirmed by parliamentary business managers who are expected to meet on Tuesday.

What happens if Mr Yousaf loses?

The vote is not binding and so he would not be forced to step down – but he would be under immense pressure to quit, and his position likely to be judged untenable if he did not have the confidence of most MSPs.

However, the resignation of the first minister would not automatically trigger a Holyrood election, with a 28-day grace period for MSPs to choose a replacement.

This means that if Mr Yousaf was to quit, the SNP may seek to have a replacement leader installed in the post – assuming they could muster enough support.

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Is that all?

No. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar says he will separately lay a motion of no confidence in the Scottish government.

While this carries more far-reaching implications by compelling ministers to resign and raising the prospect of an election, it is unlikely to succeed.

Alba has already ruled out its pivotal support, accusing Mr Sarwar of “grandstanding”.

Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done. 

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

Read more from Sky News:
A crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for the government
Future of Scottish FM Humza Yousaf hangs in balance

Electoral Dysfunction

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‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

Voters in Grimsby – one of Sky News’s election Target Towns – have been offering their views on politics, politicians and “broken promises”.

The electoral battle in Grimsby and Cleethorpes, the Target Towns, will be fierce. Labour will need an 11.7 point swing to win this newly-merged constituency back from the Conservatives.

In 2019, residents in Grimsby voted Tory for the first time since the end of the Second World War. The old Cleethorpes constituency was always more of a bellwether, having voted Conservative since 2010.

However, it has shed some of its rural, Conservative-voting residents in the merger.

Politics live: Why have politicians lost people’s trust?

Speaking on the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, small business owner Shannon said she might not vote in the next general election later this year as she “just can’t trust anything anybody says”.

She said she has felt this way since Brexit – something Grimsby was overwhelmingly in support of – because “we were promised ‘x’ and ‘y’ and it hasn’t happened, so I’m just totally disengaged from it”.

Asked whether local MPs on the panel – Conservative Lia Nici and Labour’s Melanie Onn – could change her mind, Shannon said “possibly”, but reiterated how let down local people feel.

“We’re promised a lot, but it’s never delivered,” she said. “Talk of things happening… and then it doesn’t happen and people are just fed up… have been told this is what we’re going to get, but it doesn’t actually happen. And that’s why people have just lost faith.”

Read more:
Why pre-election pledges might not be enough
Analysis: Crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for government

‘Lack of leadership’

Steven told Sophy Ridge that he will “force” himself to vote at the election as “you should”, but he doesn’t believe there is anyone worth voting for.

“I find politics almost unbelievable,” he added. “It’s nothing to believe in. There’s no one to believe in.”

He puts the blame down to a “lack of leadership nationally” and that the current crop of politicians “lack the statesmanship” needed.

“The politicians that we looked up to and respected as children and young people seem to have vanished,” he added. “It seems to be petty about scandal, backbiting.

“I think there are important issues that need to be addressed in this country, and I think turn on the television or watch debates, and that seems to be sorely lacking in politics at the moment.”

‘Start caring about us’

Sarah used a former US president to express her upset at the state of politics today, telling Sophy Ridge: “I think Ronald Regan said it best – the most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help’, which I think is basically what most people think about the intervention of either Labour or a Conservative government.”

She said neither party had done anything for the town during their stints in power, and despite growing up in Grimsby, she was keen to leave as a result.

“It’s a shame really, because, you know, my family is from here, I’ve lived most of my life here, so it should be a place that is going to be a draw for young people – especially when you look at the housing prices.

“We just went to Liverpool in February and that’s such a wonderful city, you know, it’s like apples and oranges. But you look at what’s going [in Grimsby] and… the town centre is all fake shops or barbers or charity shops.

“No one does care about us and at the end of the day you can vote for any politician, but when they start caring about us, maybe we’ll care back.”

‘We fight for your town’

So what did the politicians have to say in response?

Both the Tory and Labour MPs accepted their roles in the downbeat feelings, with Ms Onn saying: “I do think I’m part of a system that bears responsibility for not communicating politics well, not engaging with people, not making them feel that they are heard enough through the course of our debates.

“I think the British public at large probably deserve to hear people occasionally say we haven’t always been as good as we could.”

But Ms Nici insisted it was not all just sniping in parliament and MPs do care about what happens to their constituents – and the country.

“What your MP does is go out, have a look at the legislation and then fight for your town,” she said. “I work hard every day to make sure that I’m listening to what you want and to be able to represent that right at the heart of at Grimsby.”

And both MPs agreed the town had a great future ahead after the next election. But it will be for the Shannons, Stevens and Sarahs to decide who stands up for them after the next election.