How Long Does It Take For Solar Panels To Pay For Themselves?
Anyone considering investing in solar panels will of course expect that it will be a while before they have paid for themselves producing valuable electricity. How long it will take to reach break even depends on many factors: The initial price of the system including full installation, the longevity of the hardware components of the system itself, the price rate structure of the utility energy provider including the grid operator, taxes on both sell and buy rates, whether you opt to include battery storage, and how much the system changes the value of the building on which the it is installed. Of course you could have a situation where panels are just installed and you pay on a monthly basis without actually owning the system in which case none of the following matters, except maybe the electric vehicle bits.
A Typical Solar Installation
To be honest, the overall question of this article is in reality impossible to answer accurately for any given system, but since I’ve had my solar panels for exactly 10 years know, I can at least provide some data for you to look at. These basic data of how much electricity is generated is useful for making more precise calculations for your local pricing structure, and thus help you forecast how long a given system you are interested in would be able to pay for itself. But first, some specifications on my system:
- 16 panels with a total peak capacity of 4 kWp (I have only come close to this output at noon on very cold and windy summer days).
- 2 inverters capable of 2 kW throughput each (at the time this was cheaper than 1 single 4 kW inverter and would make it easier to install an extra 2 kWp had I needed it).
- Price including all hardware, installation, and tax credit (in 2011 the labour cost was deductible in Denmark): 100,000 DKK ($16,000). A similar system price today 10 years later: 50,000 — 70,000 DKK ($8,000 — 11,000) depending on local tax credits.
- Geographical attributes: Panels facing south at a 30 degree angle, latitude and longitude (Decimal degrees): 56.3332, 10.3826.
Why not 6 kW, which is the largest allowed grid connected system on private property in my area? Well, although it would easily fit on my roof, I simply could not afford it at the time, and up until I got an electric car it would have more capacity than I needed all things considered.
Things to consider that can have a positive impact utilizing excess energy periods when not having opted for a battery as storage:
- Fridge and deep freezer with timer.
- Water heater with timer.
- HVAC system with timer and zone optimisation.
- Electric vehicle with timer and rate configuration of charge.
- Training you own sense of when to use electricity, like vacuuming and washing when the sun is shining.
Of the points above I have really only focused on the last two in my everyday routines, and when the electric vehicle came into play, it became a challenge to micromanage the system to optimize the utilization of the system. It just so happened that the local net metering scheme changed at about the same time I purchased my latest EV, and it actually resulted in choosing the larger battery option in the car than I had originally planned. I have described the detailed considerations in an earlier article, and it seems obvious now 2 years later that the larger EV battery was worth it.
My calculations at the time showed that a battery that was 20 kWh larger would pay for itself within 10 years if I could manage the charging just by prioritizing sunshine. Since then I have changed my electricity supplier to one that sells electricity cheaper when wind turbines produce more power, thus making me prioritize charging in windy situations too.
Electricity consumption
First and foremost let’s look at electricity consumption. On average I use 3,000 kWh of electricity every year in my household. I do not use electricity for heating or cooling my house which is why total consumption might seem low. I am connected to district heating, and in Denmark the average outdoor temperature is so low that use of air conditioning systems (HVAC) for cooling is rare.
In the graph below covering a decade of net electricity consumption I have highlighted 4 years:
- 2010 (blue): No solar panels and no EV. This represents my baseline electricity consumption in a typical full year.
- 2014 (yellow): Solar panels installed, but still no EV. From March through September I get a surplus of electricity production.
- 2016 (green): First full year of driving an EV, Nissan Leaf, 25,000 km/year (16,000 miles/year). Electricity consumption doubles to 6,000 kWh, and only in the summer is it possible to balance out consumption and production.
- 2021 (red): With a Tesla Model 3 long range 75 kWh driving 35,000 km/year (22,000 miles/year) and the yearly net metering out the window, I prioritize free referral code Supercharging in the winter when solar power is low.
When I bought my panels a net metering scheme based on yearly accounting was in effect, but 2 years ago it was replaced with hourly accounting, which left many private solar system owners angry and a class-action lawsuit was initiated but dismissed in court. For nearly 8 years I had conveniently been able to do the math once a year: Subtract kWh consumed from kWh produced and as it turned out the average 3,750 kWh produced each year covered with a comfortable margin the 3,000 kWh consumed.
Getting and EV in the household countered to some degree the disadvantage of net metering on a yearly basis to an hourly basis by making sure to charge as often as possible when the panel generated a surplus of electricity. As mentioned this is the reason I chose a larger range EV than I had planned for. The 20+ kWh of battery capacity in the long range Tesla Model 3 made it easier to charge less often in order to prioritize the sunshine. Not perfect, but still noticeable in terms of freedom of when to charge compared to the low range Nissan Leaf and BMW i3 I had been driving the years prior.
Electricity Production
In order to get a sense of when an investment in a solar power installation will have paid for itself it is of course essential to pay close attention to how much electricity is being generated by the system.
In the graphs below it’s evident that I live relatively far north on the northern hemisphere. Note that this year in red actually deviates quite a lot from the yearly average since May and July usually are the best performing months due to slightly lower average temperatures than June. Solar panels perform best with clear skies and low temperatures preferably with a breeze cooling the panel even more. That’s why you see record outputs in May and July because June is often hotter and more humid. Except this year giving the exact opposite of the norm.
You might think that the sun is up the longest in June and thus should give more power, but since the panels are oriented south and given how far north I live, the sun rises in the north-east and sets in the north-west, sunlight in those very early and late hours do not fall on the panels.
What about degradation? Well, 10 years is of course not a lot to go by, but if the trend in the graph showing total year output persists there might be a couple of percent performance loss per decade. The big risk with panels is more in terms of build quality. If they puncture and moisture gets inside they will fail fast. I chose a high quality brand at the time, even though there where many much cheaper options available. In fact I could have saved 30 — 40% in total costs, but I figured that might cut the lifetime by maybe 50% thinking 4 decades out, and indeed I have spotted many solar panels of the same age and lower price beginning to deteriorate. Since production of silicon based solar panels is an energy intensive process, the longer they sit on the roof producing energy the better.
Note: In Denmark I pay roughly 2.2 DKK/kWh (35 cents/kWh) for grid electricity including taxes. When I sell surplus electricity to the grid I get paid a maximum of 0.3 DKK/kWh (5 cents/kWh) because taxes are not a part of it. No, this is not a typo, there is a lot of tax on energy in this country. This incentifies me to use my generated electricity rather than sell it, which is a challenge with hourly net metering. This is where a home battery and/or EV helps a lot.
Break Even
So, when will the system have paid for itself? Well, in my situation, accounting for the many variable parameters, it looks as if it will be another 2 years before I can say the panels finally produces energy for free. That’s 12 years total, which is not bad considering the panels themselves has a 20 year warranty on construction defects. I expect no less than 30 years of operation.
Checking prices today, I find that an equivalent quality system would cost 60% of what I paid 10 years ago including installation, so investing in solar just makes even more sense now, and more so going forward. Solar panel prices has fallen almost 10× in the last 15 years!
However, it gets more complicated when an EV is included in the mix. You could argue that the EV is part of the system, and that you would now have to look at the combined cost of the solar system and electric vehicle as one single utility since they are practically dependent of each other. I save money on energy to move the car around, and I am able to soak up the surplus energy from the panels much more efficiently.
I could choose to ask the question of when the whole package has paid for it self compared to buying all the electricity from the grid or compare the payback time of the electric vehicle to an equivalent fossil fueled vehicle. In any case solar and EV is without a doubt a win-win.
The share of global solar energy will certainly accelerate with battery storage pricing plummeting. Will I invest in a home battery? I will consider it when energy arbitrage and virtual power plants becomes the norm. In such a scenario it might even be feasible to move the old panels over on top of my garage and replace my whole 50 year old roof with solar tiles. Who knows?
The Takeaway
So, as I said, it’s no easy task to answer the main question of this article, and it is clear that the financial parameters change all the time, so maybe one should not spend too much time trying to calculate this to perfection, but rather just get on with investing in a solar system and rejoice over the savings from day one. It probably will pay off in the end no matter what.
And remember, it is clear that if you plan to include an EV into the mix sooner or later, a matching installed solar capacity could greatly lower the payback time for the combined financial expenditure, more so the more your driving needs.
Below is a few photos of the installation of my panels 10 years ago:
16 panels each with a peak output of 250 Watts
Panels are configured in 2 strands connected to 2 separate 2 kW inverters
The finished system busy doing its photon to electron magic
![Hyundai's small new EV has a wild aero hatch design and ducktail spoiler [Image]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/12/Hyundai-small-EV-design.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
The IONIQ 3 is set to arrive as a smaller sibling to the IONIQ 5, but it will look a little different from other Hyundai EVs.
The Hyundai IONIQ 3 will debut a new EV design
Hyundai previewed the new electric hatchback, dubbed the Concept Three, at the Munich Motor Show in September.
The “Three” is Hyundai’s first compact electric vehicle concept under the IONIQ series, set to bring a radical new design to the family.
According to Hyundai, the Concept Three “represents the next step in the company’s electrification journey.” Production is expected to begin in early 2026 at Hyundai’s manufacturing plant in Turkey, with deliveries starting shortly thereafter.
The new design, “Art of Steel,” is inspired by Hyundai’s advanced steel technology. Hyundai calls the Aero Hatch profile “a new typology that reimagines the compact EV silhouette.”
Hyundai kept a few of its signature design elements from other IONIQ EV models, like the Parametric Pixel lights at the front and rear.
With its official debut approaching, a few IONIQ 3 prototypes have been spotted driving in public in South Korea. Despite heavy camouflage, you could tell the production version was shaping up to be nearly identical to the Concept Three.
A new image from KindelAuto offers a closer look at the IONIQ 3, spotted in Europe with barely any camouflage.
You can clearly see the vehicle’s profile stays close to the concept, with a sleek, hot-hatch design and a ducktail spoiler.
The compact EV is 4,287 mm long, 1,940 mm wide, and 1,428 mm tall, with a wheelbase of 2,722 mm, or about the size of the Kia EV3 or Volkswagen ID.3.
Hyundai has yet to reveal battery specs or prices, but it’s expected to offer 58.3 kWh and 81.4 kWh battery packs, like the Kia EV3, providing a WLTP range of around 365 miles. Given the Kona Electric starts at £35,000 ($47,000), the IONIQ 3 will likely be priced closer to £25,000 ($33,700).
For those in the US, sadly, the IONIQ 3 is not expected to make the trip overseas, given America’s growing love for bigger trucks and SUVs.
The IONIQ 5 does, however, remain one of the most affordable EVs in the US, starting at under $35,000 with leases as low as $189 per month.
If you’re considering an EV, Hyundai’s lineup is absolutely worth checking out — offering over 300 miles of range, fast charging, modern tech, at a price that’s actually reasonable. Check out the links below to see what’s available by you.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk went on a podcast this week to express regret over the time he spent trying to destroy the American government, claiming that he wouldn’t do it again.
In the first half of this year, Musk took a position advising convicted felon Donald Trump (who cannot legally hold office in the US) on what essential government jobs to trim.
He named the group he led the “Department of Government Efficiency,” despite that it was never an actual government department, nor did it do a whole lot to increase efficiency as we will see below.
Musk claimed before taking the position that he could save the government $2 trillion – which was always going to be literally impossible, given the amount of discretionary spending in the US budget, as anyone with a passing interest in American government could have told you at the time.
Unsurprisingly, Musk was unable to succeed in the impossible cuts he had proposed. After less than half a year (incidentally, not far off from the 130-day cap for unofficial advisory positions), Musk left the position amid a fiery breakup with Mr. Trump. The breakup led to a big drop in Tesla stock, which had been inflated due to expectations of corruption.
All in all, Musk claims that he cut around $200 billion from the government’s budget, but actual analyses show that those numbers were fake and in fact that his actions likely increased the budget deficit, rather than decreasing it. This is due to the disruption in necessary government services, higher costs for employee severance, and lost revenue for the government as ultra-wealthy tax cheats will be able to get off without paying their fair share.
And, in the interim, republicans passed a law that gives away $4 trillion to those same wealthy elites, adding $3.3 trillion to the deficit. That number is 16 times larger than even the inflated $200 billion “savings” number Musk claims.
How Musk’s actions harmed Tesla, not just the US
But Musk’s actions cosplaying as a government official had other effects than his failure to effectively cut waste: they turned public opinion against his companies, mainly Tesla.
Over the last couple years, Musk has increasingly tried to involve himself in politics, both in the US and abroad. His politics have largely focused on pushing white supremacist nonsense including support for German neo-Nazis and agreeing with a defense of Hitler, and funding and supporting groups that oppose renewable energy and vehicle electrification. He’s even rhetorically got into climate change denial himself.
These actions have directly harmed Tesla through loss of expected revenue, and have also reduced the brand’s profile in the public eye. Tesla is now the only EV brand with negative perception, and it’s due to Musk himself. His actions have driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away – including business customers.
As a result, Tesla’s sales have been falling both in the US and around the globe in a rising EV market. All told, one study found that he cost Tesla over 1 million sales in the US alone with his braindead political takes. Even his own company had to chide him.
It wasn’t hard to see this coming
These results were eminently foreseeable – anyone can tell you that business leaders typically should remain neutral on politics as a rule, and generally only speak on issues that directly involve their company or industry.
Wading into wedge issues and identity politics as a business leader can only serve to turn off customers, and since negative motivations are generally stronger than positive ones, you will net lose sales even if you appeal to some portion of the population with your advocacy.
And if you do advocate for something, it should probably be for something that will help your companies, rather than hurt them.
But Elon Musk is different. Unlike most business leaders, he has millions of useful idiots at his beck and call on twitter at any time (and it is indeed where he spends all of his time), ready and willing to tell him that all of his ideas are genius, no matter how braindead they are, or how recycled they are from his rage-filled feed which seems to be his only source of information these days. Why should conventional wisdom apply to someone who is constantly told conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to him?
And so, he ignored – or rather, probably didn’t even see, given the echo chamber he has formed around himself – the conventional wisdom telling him what a bad idea all of this was. And now, years later, he’s finally showing the slightest moment of lucidity that perhaps all of the above was not a great use of time.
Musk finally recognizes what we’ve been telling him all along
This week, Musk went on a podcast (hosted by Katie Miller, wife of American white supremacist Stephen Miller) and claimed that his advisory board was “a little bit successful. We were somewhat successful,” which is a rather middling assessment given his big initial claims of being able to save the government trillions of dollars.
But further, he went on to say that he wouldn’t do it all over again, and that “instead of doing DOGE, I would have, basically, built … worked on my companies.”
He said that if he had done that instead, “they wouldn’t have been burning the cars.” This is a reference to Tesla protests, which have largely not included burning anything, but which have been widespread globally.
We, of course, agree that that would have been a better course of action. Which is why we said it at the time. Perhaps it’s time to get off twitter and read some real thoughts for once, Mr. Musk. We’re not sure if the damage you’ve done is repairable (though it was certainly preventable), but as they say, “garbage in, garbage out” – the more nonsense you read, the more nonsense you’ll continue to get up to.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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BMW is the latest major automaker to officially gain access to the Tesla Supercharger network in North America. Starting today, BMW EV drivers in the US can access over 25,000 Tesla Superchargers, adding a massive boost to the charging options for owners of the i4, iX, and other electric models from the German automaker.
It follows a wave of other automakers gaining access over the last year as the industry transitions to NACS (North American Charging Standard), Tesla’s proprietary connector that has now become the standard.
BMW confirmed today that the update is effective immediately. Owners can find Tesla Superchargers directly in their vehicle’s navigation system and the My BMW app.
However, like most other automakers making this transition, there is hardware involved. Current BMW EVs, which are equipped with CCS ports, will require a CCS-to-NACS adapter to use the vast majority of Tesla’s V3 and V4 Superchargers.
According to BMW, official adapters will go on sale as accessories starting in Q2 2026. That is a bit of a wait, but in the meantime, some third-party adapters are already on the market.
For those lucky enough to live near one of Tesla’s few “Magic Dock” locations (Superchargers with a built-in CCS adapter), any BMW EV can charge immediately without needing to buy extra hardware.
BMW also clarified its timeline for native NACS ports, which will eliminate the need for an adapter entirely. The transition begins with the 2026 BMW i5 M60, followed by other models throughout the year, including the highly anticipated Neue Klasse iX3, which is expected to be a competitor of the higher-end trims of Tesla’s popular Model Y.
Interestingly, there is a software hurdle for some specific 2026 models. BMW noted that the 2026 iX and i5 eDrive40 will not be able to use Tesla Superchargers until they receive a remote software upgrade, also scheduled for Q2 2026.
One of the biggest pain points for non-Tesla EVs using the Supercharger network has been the user experience. Tesla has set a high bar with its “plug and play” ecosystem.
BMW seems to have done a good job integrating this. The automaker says that its Plug & Charge is supported at Tesla stations. You won’t need the Tesla app to start a session. Instead, billing is handled through the customer’s Shell Recharge account, which is integrated into the My BMW app.
Pricing will follow Tesla’s standard rate structure for non-Tesla vehicles, which is generally higher than what Tesla owners pay unless you pay a monthly membership fee.
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