‘A code red for humanity’: Landmark climate report says global warming limit to be hit within 20 years
Heatwaves, flooding and droughts will be more frequent and more intense as the world is set to hit the 1.5C global warming limit in the next 20 years, a landmark United Nations review has predicted.
The milestone scientific assessment says the rate of warming in the last 2,000 years has been “unprecedented” and it was “unequivocal” that human influence is already responsible for 1.1C of global warming since 1850.
Every inhabited region on Earth is already impacted by climate change and the report found that the accepted 1.5C limit will be met even in the best case scenario, causing more regular extreme weather events.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, more than 190 governments agreed the world should limit global warming to 2C or ideally 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Hot extremes are taking hold around the world. Pic: IPCC
The report warns that even in the best case scenarios, some changes are already locked in to our systems, including sea level rise. This will never be reversed, not even under the lowest scenario.
The language in the review is bolder than the last equivalent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN’s climate science body, which in 2013 called human influence on the climate system “clear”.
The “good news” in the report, said Dr Joeri Rogelj, climate change lecturer at Imperial College London, was that if the world did achieve net zero by 2050, there was a “significant chance” that we eventually stabilise below 1.5C.
Lead author Dr Tamsin Edwards told Sky News: “That is something people may see as optimistic, but we’re not there, and we are on higher emissions pathways at the moment that would lead to much greater climate change.”
Unless there are “immediate, rapid and large scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”, the 1.5C target will be beyond reach, she added.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the study made for “sobering reading” and that the next decade would be “pivotal to securing the future of our planet”.
This is the first time the influential group of scientists could say climate change is already impacting every single region on the planet.
This “major new development” is thanks to advances in attribution science – which assesses human influence on weather – said a report author Dr Friederike Otto, associate climate professor at Oxford University.
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Labour’s Ed Miliband said the report “confirms in prose” what recent fires and floods had shown in picture: that “climate breakdown has already begun… and that extraordinary changes to our planet – from heavier rains and ocean acidification to glacier melt to sea-level rise – are already baked in for centuries to come”.
“Thanks to reports like this, the paths of our different futures are now mapped and modelled in front of us; and we still have a choice about the path to which we will commit ourselves and future generations,” the shadow business secretary said.
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The IPCC investigated five future scenarios based on how much carbon dioxide the world continues to emit and what we do to compensate.
They found that even under the most optimistic pathway, which assumes “very low” emissions and achieving net zero around 2050, the world will hit 1.5 degrees in the next 20 years – though it could level off at 1.4C towards the end of the century.
In a briefing, a group of eight of the lead authors were at pains to stress that the goal of limiting warming to 1.5C was not a “cliff edge”.
“The consequences get worse and worse and worse as we get warmer and warmer,” said Ed Hawkins, climate science professor at Reading University. “And so every tonne of CO2 matters and every bit of warming matters.”
As in previous years, the report will likely set the scene for this year’s annual UN climate change negotiations, COP26, in Glasgow.
Many countries including the UK have pledged by 2050 to reach net zero – which means reducing emissions as much as possible and offsetting the rest – but have been criticised for failing to match this rhetoric with action.
Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist Dr Doug Parr said this generation of world leaders was the “last that can afford to ignore” the “gravity of the climate crisis”.
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Dr Parr said the increased “frequency, scale and intensity of climate disasters that have scorched and flooded many parts of the world in recent months is the result of past inaction”.
“We need concrete policies to cut carbon emissions as fast as possible, phase out fossil fuels, transform our food system and deliver more cash to the countries worst hit by the climate crisis.”
A map shows how human influence is influencing rainfall and precipitation. Pic: IPCC
The report cautioned 2C warming would likely breach extreme heat thresholds for agriculture and health.
The assessment found carbon removal could reverse some of the increase in global temperatures – although a lot of this technology is unproven to work at scale, says Friends of the Earth.
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Sky News has launched the first daily prime time news show dedicated to climate change.
The Daily Climate Show is broadcast at 6.30pm and 9.30pm Monday to Friday on Sky News, the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.
Hosted by Anna Jones, it follows Sky News correspondents as they investigate how global warming is changing our landscape and how we all live our lives.
The show also highlights solutions to the crisis and how small changes can make a big difference.
Firefighters rescued 28 people who were stuck dangling 100ft upside down on a ride at an amusement park in Oregon.
One person with a pre-existing medical condition was taken to hospital as a precaution after the AtmosFEAR ride stopped, Oaks Amusement Park, in Portland, said in a statement posted on social media.
However, they said no one was injured in the incident.
Chris Ryan said he and his wife, who were at the park for his birthday were just about to go on the ride – which operates like a pendulum, with the capacity to swing riders completely upside down – when they saw it was stuck.
He heard people saying: “Oh my God, they are upside down.” He said they decided to walk away because of “how scary the situation was”.
Pic: Tieanna Joseph Cade/AP
They eventually got on a Ferris wheel and heard a loudspeaker announcement that the park was closed and that people should evacuate.
Portland Fire and Rescue said on X that firefighters worked with engineers at Oaks Park, which first opened in 1905, to manually lower the ride, but that crews had been preparing to conduct a high-angle ropes rescue if necessary.
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When the ride stopped, park staff immediately called the emergency services, who arrived around 25 minutes later.
Maintenance workers were then able to return the ride to its unloading position minutes later, the park said in a statement.
Pic: Oregon Amusement Ride-Rescue/AP
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The ride has been in operation since 2021 and has not had any prior incidents, the park said. It will remain closed until further notice.
The park said it would work with the ride’s manufacturer and state inspectors to determine the cause of the stoppage.
“We wish to express our deepest appreciation to the first responders and our staff for taking prompt action, leading to a positive outcome today, and to the rest of the park guests who swiftly followed directions to vacate the park to make way for the emergency responders to attend to the situation,” it said.
Oaks Park’s website says it offers a “uniquely Portland blend of modern thrills and turn-of-the-century charm on a midway that has delighted generations of Northwesterners”.
His voice quiet and at times wobbly, a Ukrainian soldier called Maksym candidly shares his mental trauma from fighting on the frontline.
“Everything the Russians have done – trying to destroy us, killing our fellow soldiers – it deeply affects my emotional state,” he said. “War is tough.”
The soldier agreed to speak to Sky News as he received support at a makeshift psychological centre in eastern Ukraine, set up by fellow troops from 41st Brigade.
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The facility can hold around 10 service personnel at a time, each able to stay for a few days.
As well as being offered a bed, food and space to relax, each visitor is also assessed by military psychologists and encouraged to speak about what is going on in their mind.
Maksym candidly shares his mental trauma
Maksym said as soon as he left a two-week rotation in the frontline town of Chasiv Yar, in the Donbas, he knew something was wrong.
“There were a lot of thoughts swirling in my head about what had happened, and I couldn’t shake them off,” he said, clasping his hands and at times staring into space.
“It was all weighing heavily on me, so I turned to a psychologist to provide me with some assistance.”
Like the majority of Ukrainians fighting Russia’s full-scale war, Maksym had previously been a civilian. He worked as an electrical engineer but signed up to fight in April 2022.
Apologising as his voice broke with emotion, he said that the war had changed him.
He described the pain of being unable to see his family easily when deployed on operations – and the agony of not knowing at times whether he would survive to be with them again.
Maksym said the support hub offered some respite.
“This place is very helpful because you try to get rid of everything you’ve been through, to recover, to gather your thoughts… because a soldier who is broken inside…”
He suddenly paused and said sorry once more for his voice faltering.
Maksym then continued: “He cannot perform these tasks properly and can cause harm.”
It is a warning that rings true for every conflict, where mental health conditions – such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) – caused by exposure to violence, danger and loss can be devastating if left untreated.
There are no publicly available figures on the number of Ukrainian military personnel and veterans who have PTSD, according to a report by the Kyiv Independent new outlet.
However, it cited health ministry figures that showed a sharp rise last year in diagnoses of the condition to 12,494 cases, compared with 3,167 in 2021, though it was unclear whether servicemen and women were included in the data.
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Ilya, a lieutenant, is a military psychologist who works at the support centre, which was set up inside what had been an abandoned building.
The place is quite basic with a line of camp beds, separated by makeshift dividers, and a small canteen. Staff said they would love additional equipment such as board games, a snooker table and a better television set.
Still, the facility is a relatively new idea to be able to treat Ukrainian soldiers’ hidden mental wounds close to the frontline.
There have long been stabilisation hubs to deal with physical injuries.
“The main goal is to rehabilitate servicemen so that they remain healthy, both physically and mentally, emotionally, and with their thoughts in order,” Ilya said.
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He was previously a combat soldier, so understands the trauma of war from personal experience – a background that means his patients feel more comfortable to open up about their own experiences.
He said it is vital to pay attention to a person’s mental scars.
“I tell the guys: You can stay silent, but it [the trauma] will stay inside you, and the more you accumulate, the worse it becomes… None of us is made of steel.”
Ilya, a lieutenant, is a military psychologist
As for the danger of leaving mental injuries untreated, he said: “We may lose a serviceman. He will start having problems, and besides harming himself, he may harm other people.”
But with Ukraine suffering troop shortages, only those at the centre who display the most serious signs of mental trauma are sent on for further treatment.
The rest must return to the frontline.
Maksym said he believes he will soon be asked to fight once again “because it’s war”.
He added: “This is our land… If we retreat, we will lose Ukraine. Next will be Poland, then other countries. The aggression won’t stop. We need to stop it where we can.”
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