Training camp position battles to watch for all 32 teams: Who will start at QB for the Pats, Saints and Broncos?
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NFL NationESPN
Whether you are a fantasy football hawk, a super fan of your favorite team or prepping to place NFL bets in 2021, figuring out who will come out on top of key position battles is an important part of the preseason.
The New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are among the teams with quarterback battles. The San Francisco 49ers and Washington Football Team are fleshing out their wide receiver corps. Much of the NFL is settling their offensive lines. And the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals have competitions at linebacker.
NFL Nation reporters break down the biggest competitions in training camp for all 32 teams.
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ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Cornerback
Offensive guard and defensive end are honorable mentions here, but the battle between Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson was specifically mentioned by defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier at the beginning of training camp. Wallace is the Bills’ incumbent starter of the past three seasons and has staved off any attempt to take his job during that span — and he has done so again with Jackson during the past two weeks. But Jackson is a playmaker and could make a case for himself during the preseason. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Center
This wasn’t the position battle Dolphins fans circled in March after the team signed Matt Skura in free agency. But Michael Deiter is also getting a steady run as the Dolphins try to find the five best linemen to start. Miami will let this battle play out over the next few weeks. — Jeremy Fowler
Quarterback
Bill Belichick has said Cam Newton is the starting quarterback, but he has also made it clear that it’s a clean slate for everyone and that every player still has to solidify their place on the depth chart. So nothing is a given. And it sure seems like Mac Jones has been coming on strong, with the preseason opener against Washington on Thursday being another key checkpoint. — Mike Reiss
Right tackle
It’s incumbent George Fant versus recently signed Morgan Moses, who has the edge because of his experience and consistent performances over the years. Fant got off to a slow start because he missed the first eight practices (COVID-19 list), but his return Saturday probably means a rotation for the remainder of the competition. Look for a quick resolution; the starting five needs as many reps as possible. Barring an upset, it will be Moses, who can provide stability on the line. — Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Left guard
This is the biggest question mark in the Ravens’ rebuilt offensive line. With Bradley Bozeman moving to center, Ben Cleveland, Ben Powers and Tyre Phillips are competing to replace him at left guard. Cleveland, a burley rookie third-round pick, has become the favorite to win the job because he has impressed even more since the full-padded practices have begun. “He’s stepped in here, and he’s embraced everything we’ve asked him to do,” Ravens offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris said, “and he’s doing one heck of a job.” — Jamison Hensley
Right guard
The Bengals are still searching for the starting right guard who must keep Joe Burrow upright. The competition features veteran Xavier Su’a-Filo and rookie Jackson Carman, the team’s second-round draft pick who played left tackle at Clemson. Carman started training camp buried on the depth chart. Su’a-Filo has enough savvy to take advantage of his opportunities if the rookie isn’t ready. — Ben Baby
Linebacker
The only real position competition in camp might be at linebacker, where incumbents Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, Jacob Phillips and Malcolm Smith are attempting to fend off Anthony Walker and rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (who missed the beginning of camp after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list) for playing time and even roster spots. Despite a minor knee injury, Walker appears to have a starting job all but locked up inside — leaving a fierce series of battles to determine the rest of the Browns’ linebacking corps. — Jake Trotter
Backup quarterback
Neither of the guys battling for this spot will see significant playing time in the regular season unless something goes horribly awry, but the competition between Dwayne Haskins and Mason Rudolph could signal the direction of the quarterback position whenever Ben Roethlisberger hangs it up. Rudolph is the only quarterback under contract for 2022, but Haskins has a real shot to rehab his reputation in Pittsburgh and get his career, one that began as a first-round pick, back on track. The winner of the No. 2 spot could very well wind up being the successor to Roethlisberger if this is indeed his last season. — Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Running back
The Texans have a crowded running back room after restructuring David Johnson‘s contract and adding veteran backs Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead. Johnson, last year’s starter, is expected to fill a different role, similar to Duke Johnson’s in 2020, with Lindsay as the starter. Coach David Culley has praised Ingram’s leadership on the field … so could Houston keep all four running backs? — Sarah Barshop
Quarterback
No, Carson Wentz is not at risk of losing his starting job. The question is who will start Week 1 if Wentz isn’t back from his foot injury? The two primary candidates are Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. The Colts are giving Eason, who is in his second year, every opportunity to win the job if Wentz isn’t ready, but Ehlinger — who on Tuesday got first-team reps for the first time — is right in the mix. The rookie Ehlinger doesn’t have nearly the same arm strength as Eason, but what he has done much better is make quicker decisions with the ball, which has impressed many in the organization. — Mike Wells
Offensive tackle
Second-round pick Walker Little has been very impressive in camp, so much so that right tackle Jawaan Taylor and left tackle Cam Robinson better be on notice. Coach Urban Meyer said both players needed to be better in 2021 than they were last season (per ESPN Stats & Information, Taylor gave up 18 sacks and Robinson nine). Even though the Jaguars picked up the fifth-year option on Robinson and will pay him $13.75 million in 2021, he’s not a lock to start if Little, who played left tackle at Stanford and has begun cross-training at right tackle this past week, continues to impress. — Mike DiRocco
Right tackle
What was once a three-man race has expanded to include veteran tackle David Quessenberry. Free-agent addition Kendall Lamm appears to have the inside track toward the starting spot for the season opener, while Ty Sambrailo hasn’t done much due to injury. Ideally it would be rookie Dillon Radunz taking hold of the position, but he has been asked to play multiple spots along the line and has struggled a bit in the process. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Quarterback
Coach Vic Fangio said he has yet to see any “separation” between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater throughout the first week of training camp. The coming week is important for them, as the Broncos will have joint practices with the Minnesota Vikings for two days before facing the Vikings in the preseason opener. Lock and Bridgewater have gotten an equal number of snaps with the offensive starters, and while each has had days when they looked like the answer, neither has strung those days together. For a team that had the most turnovers last season and had the worst turnover margin (by six), those turnovers might be one of the biggest factors during the competition until Fangio names a starter. — Jeff Legwold
Offensive line
The Chiefs have eight legitimate roster candidates who weren’t with the team last year, making for some interesting battles for starting jobs and roster spots. They will likely emerge from training camp with a rookie starting at center (Creed Humphrey), right guard (Trey Smith) and possibly even right tackle (Lucas Niang). Whatever the Chiefs do, they have to get these decisions right. They have too much invested for their line not to be a strength. — Adam Teicher
Nickel corner
New DC Gus Bradley’s base defense is essentially a nickel scheme, and while Nevin Lawson has been getting the majority of first-team reps as the fifth DB, he will serve a two-game suspension to start the season. However, fifth-round draft pick Nate Hobbs has been impressive throughout the offseason program, as well as the first two weeks of camp, setting up an interesting showdown. Do the Raiders continue to run Lawson out there, even if he will be ineligible to start the season, or does the rookie Hobbs get more time? And that’s not mentioning second-year corner Amik Robertson, who also has flashed at times in the slot. — Paul Gutierrez
Kicker
Michael Badgley missed 12 total kicks in 2020 — nine field goals and three extra points. The Chargers brought in Alex Kessman from the University of Pittsburgh and Tristan Vizcaino, who was with the 49ers last season. Coach Brandon Staley believes in working on the kicking game in real time, and the competition figures to be intense as Badgley fights to save his job. — Shelley Smith
NFC EAST
Linebacker
The group looks to be as deep as it has been in years, and how defensive coordinator Dan Quinn divvies up the work will be interesting. Jaylon Smith played 97.8% of the snaps last season. If it’s that high again, it would be surprising. Not because of Smith, necessarily, but because of the packages and different looks Quinn wants to give. This year’s first-round pick, Micah Parsons, has had a strong camp and made plays from multiple spots. Leighton Vander Esch, their No. 1 pick in 2018, has looked as good as he did when he made the Pro Bowl. Keanu Neal has made a smooth transition from safety to linebacker and has Quinn’s trust. Those are four players to mix in for two spots most of the time, considering how much they will use a sub package. Parsons and Smith can rush from the outside, which will allow Quinn to be versatile. — Todd Archer
Right tackle
Second-year tackle Matt Peart is getting every opportunity to be the starting right tackle. But veteran Nate Solder lurks. Solder has looked good after not playing last season as an opt-out. It would be foolish to discount him as the possible starter Week 1 versus Denver. Solder has seemed to sneak in more first-team reps of late. — Jordan Raanan
Running back
Left tackle was the competition to watch entering camp, but Jordan Mailata appears to have taken a sizable lead over Andre Dillard. The attention turns to running back, where there’s sorting out to do behind Miles Sanders. Rookie Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott are fighting for snaps, while Jordan Howard, Kerryon Johnson and blazer Jason Huntley jockey for spots on the 53-man roster. Preseason games have meaning for this position group. — Tim McManus
Wide receiver
Washington has far better receiving depth than a year ago. A lot of the fringe guys this season would have been locks in 2020. If it keeps six, the first five would be Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, Dyami Brown and Cam Sims. That means players such as Antonio Gandy-Golden, Kelvin Harmon, Steven Sims Jr., DeAndre Carter and rookie Dax Milne are fighting for the last one, or maybe two, spots. Carter could make it just as a dual returner. Gandy-Golden has an edge because he was a fourth-round pick in 2020 and he has flashed. But Harmon and Sims both have had solid moments this camp — and Milne is a guy they want to develop. More than likely they’ll lose someone they wish they could have kept but just didn’t have room. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
Left tackle
The Bears’ original plan was to start rookie second-round pick Teven Jenkins at left tackle in Week 1. However, Jenkins has been sidelined with a back injury since the beginning of training camp, raising questions about whether he’ll be ready when the regular season begins. Next up was veteran Elijah Wilkinson, who handled left tackle at practice before he went on the reserve/COVID-19 list. With Jenkins and Wilkinson both unavailable, the Bears turned to rookie fifth-round choice Larry Borom to fill in on the left side. — Jeff Dickerson
Inside linebacker/safety
Fans should track the positional competition between inside linebacker first, then safety. First-year Lions coach Dan Campbell says these are the most important battles. Why? “I’m not just talking about starting. I’m talking about who’s the next guy in,” Campbell said. “We could have three starters, if you know what I mean. They’re rotating through. We can have four. So much is going to play into how special teams goes too, especially in that position.” The Lions finished 2020 with the worst defense in the league. They will need key guys in those roles, such as Will Harris, Dean Marlowe and Tracy Walker at safety, and also inside linebackers Jamie Collins Sr., Alex Anzalone, Jahlani Tavai and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, to try and make an impact during camp. — Eric Woodyard
Offensive line
What’s more important than keeping Aaron Rodgers upright? Left tackle David Bakhtiari isn’t likely to be cleared from his January ACL repair in time for the opener, so it looks like Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins will move out to tackle. There are three competing for the two guard spots: returning starter Lucas Patrick plus second-year pros Jon Runyan Jr. and Ben Braden. Runyan played 160 snaps last season as a rookie, while Braden played only four (all kneel-downs) but it has been a close competition. The most common combination has been Runyan at left guard and Patrick at right guard, but Braden remains in the mix. Throw in a new starting center, second-round pick Josh Myers to replace the departed Corey Linsley (who signed with the Chargers in free agency), and it’s imperative that the Packers get their front five right. — Rob Demovsky
Right guard
Last season, 20 of the 39 sacks Kirk Cousins took came through the interior of the offensive line, which prompted the Vikings to improve their personnel around center Garrett Bradbury. Moving Ezra Cleveland to left guard created a competition at right guard where Oli Udoh and Dakota Dozier spent the first two weeks of camp splitting reps with the first-team offensive line. While Udoh might have the edge right now, given how well his length fits at the position, don’t rule out rookie Wyatt Davis. With a couple of strong performances in preseason games, the third-rounder could emerge as a candidate to start at right guard. — Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Right tackle
This is easy because it has been a legitimate question throughout camp. It might not have a real conclusion until Kaleb McGary returns from the PUP list, but third-round pick Jalen Mayfield looked like he was in good position to have a shot at the job. At least until Friday, when Mayfield was moved out of the first five for the first time all camp. On Saturday, Willie Beavers replaced him for every first-team snap. After practice, coach Arthur Smith said Beavers had earned it through his practice play, and he wanted to create competition — but if this continues through the week, it’ll create a real competition at right tackle for at least a little while. — Michael Rothstein
Left tackle
This has been a revolving door since Jordan Gross retired after the 2013 season. Free-agent signee Cameron Erving is first up, with Greg Little and Trent Scott also taking turns with the first team. Right tackle Taylor Moton has gotten some reps there as well, so don’t rule him completely out, though right side is his strength. Preseason games will decide this, and it appears to be Erving’s to lose. But keeping Sam Darnold upright is essential to success. — David Newton
Quarterback
This one is pretty obvious in New Orleans, where the Saints have a job opening for the first time in 16 years, following Drew Brees’ retirement. (So far it’s still too close to call between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, who have both performed mostly well taking turns with the first string in practice.) But the QBs aren’t alone. The Saints also have major voids at CB and WR, among other spots, with at least 10 new starters expected in Week 1. — Mike Triplett
Wide receiver
Yes, you read that correctly. The position group that boasts Pro Bowlers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and is arguably the top group of wideouts in the league, is the most important position group battle in Bucs camp. Hear me out. The question isn’t who wins a starting job. It’s where coach Bruce Arians and GM Jason Licht make the cut. Those three and Scotty Miller will no doubt make the team. But behind them is Jaydon Mickens, rookie Jaelon Darden, Tyler Johnson, Travis Jonsen and Cyril Grayson (Justin Watson is expected to miss another three months due to a knee injury). How many can they afford to keep? Mickens has had an exceptional camp, Darden continues to get a ton of first-team reps, and they’re excited about Jonsen, which might mean Johnson, who started three games last season, is the odd man out. Arians already called Johnson out for coming to camp out of shape, so he’s having to work his way out of the dog house. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Inside linebacker
It might not seem like this is the most important position battle at training camp because first-round pick Zaven Collins and last year’s first-round pick Isaiah Simmons were anointed the starters this offseason, but fellow linebacker Jordan Hicks is pushing the two of them every day to prove he’s still worthy of a starting job — the starting job that he held the last two seasons. It might not change the minds of Arizona’s decision-makers, but Hicks will push the two youngsters as hard as he can for that job. — Josh Weinfuss
Outside linebacker
The Rams opened training camp with most of their starting roles accounted for, but questions remain at outside linebacker opposite Leonard Floyd. Justin Hollins, a 2019 fifth-round pick, whom the Rams claimed off waivers last season, and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, a 2018 fifth-round pick, are competing for a job. Hollins appears to be the frontrunner to win the role. However, it seems most likely that both will contribute in a rotation. “Justin Hollins is a guy that used all the things that he did really well last year, and he has really continued to build and grow and excited about him,” Rams coach Sean McVay said. “And Ogbo is a guy that has a lot of ability as well.” In 16 games last season, Hollins had three sacks, a forced fumble and a pass deflection. In 20 games over the past two seasons, Okoronkwo has 2.5 sacks and a pass deflection. — Lindsey Thiry
Wide receiver
With Kendrick Bourne off to New England, the Niners aren’t exactly loaded at receiver behind starters Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The contenders for roster spots bring a mix of experience (Mohamed Sanu, Richie James Jr., Travis Benjamin) and potential (Jalen Hurd, Jauan Jennings, Trent Sherfield). Another year removed from ankle surgery, Sanu looks like an early favorite for a role. Although the Niners don’t use three-receiver sets often, compared to most of the league (29th in 2020), it’s important to establish an option for the slot and also to define a pecking order of capable options in case of injury to Samuel or Aiyuk. — Nick Wagoner
Center
Pete Carroll said over the offseason that Kyle Fuller would get a legitimate shot to win the job even though Seattle re-signed Ethan Pocic, who started there last season. Pocic’s experience and his $3 million contract made him the clear favorite heading into camp, but he missed the first few days with a hamstring injury that he recently re-aggravated. So the gap between those two doesn’t seem as wide as it did a few weeks ago. — Brady Henderson
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Andrea Adelson
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Andrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
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David Hale
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David Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
March is a busy month on the sports calendar, with college basketball jumping headlong into tournament season, the NBA and NHL hitting their playoff pushes and baseball getting ready for Opening Day.
It also provides college football coaches, players and fans with their first look at what could be in store for the 2025 season as teams conduct spring practices.
We begin our power conference spring previews with the ACC, which has no shortage of compelling storylines.
How will Georgia transfer Carson Beck fare at Miami as Cam Ward’s replacement as the Canes’ starting quarterback? Can Clemson’s defense deliver as the Tigers seem poised for big things? What does SMU do for an encore after ripping through the ACC unbeaten in its first season in the conference? How does Florida State pick up the pieces from a 2-10 campaign in 2024?
And then there’s North Carolina, which opens camp with Bill Belichick in charge after one of the most shocking coaching hires in recent memory.
Here’s a look at the top storyline, a position of intrigue and player to watch for every ACC team as spring camps get underway.
2024 record: 7-6 (4-4 ACC)
Spring storyline: Who’s the starting QB? In 2023, BC named a starter, then made a switch by Week 2. In 2024, BC again benched its starter, Thomas Castellanos, during the season, which led to his transfer. Now the Eagles enter spring with Grayson James as the incumbent but a big-name transfer in Dylan Lonergan pushing for the job. Getting this decision right the first time might be critical if the Eagles want to finally get over that seven-win hump.
Position of intrigue: The offensive line has long been a position of strength for BC, including on last year’s group, which featured an All-ACC season from Ozzy Trapilo. He’s gone, as is stalwart center Drew Kendall, and the Eagles are looking to rebuild with some veteran talent from the FCS ranks, including Amir Johnson (Merrimack) and Tommy Matheson (Princeton).
Player to watch: Linebacker Bryce Steele took a redshirt year in 2024 while recovering from cancer. He saw serious action in BC’s bowl game, however, and he hopes to be back to full strength for 2025, where he’ll compete for a starting job in hopes of regaining the reputation he held as a blue-chip recruit.
2024 record: 6-7 (2-6)
Spring storyline: Coach Justin Wilcox overhauled his offensive staff after the Bears lost four games by 5 points or fewer in their ACC debut, culminating with yet another season with more frustration than joy. Wilcox hired former Boise State and Auburn coach Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, while also bringing in new assistants to coach the offensive line, receivers and running backs. He also hired former Washington State coach Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon is reportedly moving on to the New Orleans Saints, which means this staff will look almost entirely different when spring kicks off.
Position of intrigue: Fernando Mendoza transferred to Indiana, leaving an open quarterback competition behind. Ohio State transfer Devin Brown is expected to compete with true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who transferred to the Bears a month after signing with Oregon. Sagapolutele had flipped to Oregon after initially committing to Cal, but after joining the Ducks for their Rose Bowl prep, he changed his mind and decided he wanted to come to Cal after all.
Player to watch: Cal got huge news when running back Jaydn Ott decided to return for one more year after an ankle injury hindered him for most of 2024. With Ott and Jaivian Thomas returning, Cal has one of the best running back duos in the ACC.
2024 record: 10-4 (7-1)
Spring storyline: There’s a new sheriff on D, as Clemson parted ways with Wes Goodwin in favor of former Penn State coordinator Tom Allen. The goal is to rejuvenate a pass rush that has floundered in recent years, and fresh off a dominant season coaching the likes of Abdul Carter, Allen should have plenty to work with, including T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, on the line of scrimmage.
Position of intrigue: The Tigers were stymied by a late-season injury to Phil Mafah, and they struggled to get the running game going down the stretch. This spring, Clemson will be looking to iron out a backfield that has ample options but no lead rusher. Former blue-chip receiver Adam Randall is making the full-time switch to tailback, and he’ll get plenty of run alongside David Eziomume, but the biggest name to watch might be freshman Gideon Davidson, whom Dabo Swinney believes could be the best first-year back in the country.
Player to watch: In what might have been the biggest shocker of the offseason, Clemson took a big name from the transfer portal for the first time, landing former Purdue edge rusher Will Heldt. That he’s Swinney’s first big signing in the portal means Heldt will undoubtedly be an object of fascination around Death Valley, but the bigger story is that Clemson is desperate for a big impact off the edge — something that was sorely lacking at times in 2024.
2024 record: 9-4 (5-3)
Spring storyline: Is Duke ready to push into the ACC’s upper echelon? Here’s a fun fact: The only teams with more conference wins in the past three years than Duke (14) are Clemson and Louisville. After last season’s surprising 9-4 finish, Duke spent big to land transfer Darian Mensah at QB, and expectations are incredibly high in Durham for the first time in — well, it’s been a while.
Position of intrigue: Mensah was the big offseason splash, but there remains a question as to who he’ll be throwing the ball to. The Blue Devils’ top two receivers and their leading pass catcher at tight end from 2024 are all gone. In their wake, Duke will rely on third-year option Que’Sean Brown, who emerged late in the season, and a pair of transfers in Andrel Anthony (from Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (from Princeton).
Player to watch: Jaquez Moore was supposed to be a centerpiece to Duke’s offense in 2024, but an early injury upended his season, and he finished with just 32 carries. He’s healthy again, and if he can get back into the form he showed as an all-around playmaker in 2022 and 2023, the Blue Devils should have a nicely balanced attack.
2024 record: 2-10 (1-7)
Spring storyline: Can Will Smith or Tommy Lee Jones show up on day one and zap away all memories of 2024? If so, that’d be a good start for Florida State, a team that went from the penthouse (13-0, ACC title before a bowl blowout in 2023) to the outhouse (2-10 and a big part of the coaching staff fired in 2024). The Seminoles are looking to find their footing again. Mike Norvell said he has invested in the right guys — attitude, work ethic, character — in the transfer portal, but there’s a lot of work to be done to move past a disastrous 2024 campaign.
Position of intrigue: Take your pick. At virtually every spot, Florida State has a big question after last year’s debacle. QB certainly fits the bill as “intriguing,” but BC transfer Thomas Castellanos isn’t likely to change a lot of hearts and minds this spring by himself. The bigger issue might be getting the O-line in order after an unmitigated disaster last season. If FSU can’t block, it won’t matter who’s in the backfield.
Player to watch: The defense is getting a fresh start under new coordinator Tony White, and he brings two transfers with him from Nebraska — edge rusher James Williams and linebacker Stefon Thompson. Williams arrives with his share of hype, and if FSU is going to regain some semblance of its 2023 magic, finding a pass rusher in the mold of Jermaine Johnson or Jared Verse will be critical.
2024 record: 7-6 (5-3)
Spring storyline: Georgia Tech ended last season with a good bit of buzz, and the Yellow Jackets return one of the most productive QBs in the ACC in Haynes King. Will all of that add up to a breakthrough season? There’s a lot to like on this team, but the story of coach Brent Key’s first few years in Atlanta has been the Jackets’ ability to play their best in big games then stub their toes against teams they should beat. Key is a ferocious competitor, and this spring seems like it should be a turning point when he pushes Tech from surprising upstart to a real contender.
Position of intrigue: The wide receiver room will look a lot different this spring. Three of the five wideouts with at least 100 receiving yards last season are gone, including star Eric Singleton, who exited via the portal for Auburn. Malik Rutherford is back, and he’ll be joined by a pair of FIU transfers in Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 112 catches and 19 touchdowns last year, as well as freshman Jamari Bruce.
Player to watch: Key is a former offensive lineman, and he believes championship teams are built in the trenches. Enter Josh Petty, a five-star recruit and arguably the most talented O-lineman the Jackets have landed in decades (and their first five-star signee since Calvin Johnson). Petty will need to work his way into the starting five, which already features talented veterans in Joe Fusile and Keylan Rutledge, but that doesn’t mean all eyes won’t be on the talented freshman this spring to see just how much bang Georgia Tech is getting for its buck.
2024 record: 9-4 (5-3)
Spring storyline: Just how good can this offense be? In his first year, Jeff Brohm made the most of veteran QB Jack Plummer. Last season, Tyler Shough developed into one of the most productive QBs in the country. Now Brohm turns to USC transfer Miller Moss, perhaps the most talented QB he has had at Louisville, and the Cards will surround Moss with a host of ubertalented skill players, including Caullin Lacy and Isaac Brown. Brohm’s offenses are always explosive, but this Cardinals squad has a chance to be one of the most terrifying units in America.
Position of intrigue: The secondary is littered with transfers — no shocker at Louisville — including the two corner positions, where Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State), Rodney Johnson (Southern) and Justin Agu (Louisiana) will be in the mix for playing time. There’s a big void in the secondary, after Louisville said goodbye to a host of veterans, including Quincy Riley. How this new unit jells will be crucial for a Louisville D that was far too susceptible to the big play in 2024.
Player to watch: Here’s a fun scenario: Isaac Brown was among the most prolific freshmen in the country last season, racking up 1,527 all-purpose yards. And yet, it’s another rising sophomore — Duke Watson — who might be the more explosive player. Watson got just 67 carries last season but averaged nearly 9 yards per rush and scored seven times. His role will grow alongside Brown in 2025, giving Louisville arguably the best 1-2 punch at tailback of any squad since last season’s Ohio State national champs.
2024 record: 10-3 (6-2)
Spring storyline: Can the defense get turned around? Miami parted ways with Lance Guidry after the D let the Canes down in 2024, and new coordinator Corey Hetherman is taking over with sights set on a far more dominant unit. Getting star defensive lineman Rueben Bain healthy will be a big first step, but figuring out a game plan for a beleaguered secondary will be even more significant.
Position of intrigue: Did we mention the secondary? Yes, breakout freshman OJ Frederique returns, but most of the rest of the DB room gets a fresh start with transfers Ethan O’Connor (Washington State), Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) arriving with ample hype, alongside blue-chip freshman Bryce Fitzgerald, among others. Miami’s DBs were a mess down the stretch last season — in part due to talent, in part due to injuries — so this spring is about breaking in the new faces and developing some depth at key spots.
Player to watch: How do you follow a season with Cam Ward at QB? By landing the best transfer available in former Georgia star Carson Beck. Once considered a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick, Beck saw his stock slip a bit last season, but with more playmakers at his disposal in 2025, he could be in for a huge final season.
2024 record: 6-7 (3-5)
Spring storyline: Last year, NC State hit the portal hard — and with ample hype — only to see its season dissolve behind an injured QB and an underperforming supporting cast. Dave Doeren learned some lessons from all that, and he insists the focus this year is on chemistry and continuity, starting with a hefty investment in building around QB CJ Bailey, who flashed signs of stardom as a freshman but still has much to learn before he’s ready to take the Wolfpack to the next level.
Position of intrigue: NC State needs far more from its O-line that it got last season — or really, at almost any time in the past few seasons. With that in mind, the Wolfpack added some experienced toughness up front with transfers Teague Andersen (Utah State), Brock Stukes (North Carolina A&T) and Jalen Grant (Purdue). The run game improved as last season progressed, but with Hollywood Smothers and Kendrick Raphael looking like potential stars, NC State must find a combination up front that can run block with some consistency. NC State hasn’t finished in the top eight in the ACC in rush yards per game since 2017.
Player to watch: Bailey might be the key to NC State’s 2025 campaign. He was forced into action last season before he was ready but put together some solid numbers — 22 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 8 yards per pass — but he was wildly inconsistent. With a chance for him to get a full offseason under his belt and some gaps in his foundation filled in, the expectations go way up. NC State promoted QB coach Kurt Roper to offensive coordinator, a move made as much to help Bailey as anything.
2024 record: 6-7 (3-5)
Spring storyline: Oh, there’s not really much to talk about at North Carolina this spring. Just a normal offseason in which … a six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach took over the program. That’s right, Bill Belichick is in Chapel Hill now, and he will undoubtedly be one of the biggest storylines in the country. How will the Heels look under a head coach with six rings but no college experience? It’s anyone’s guess. The move will either be a stroke of genius or a source of endless second guessing. Either way, it’s bound to be fun.
Position of intrigue: Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door, as they say, but UNC’s QB room could sure use him. The Heels saw two of the three quarterbacks to start for them last season leave via transfer, while the third, Max Johnson, is still rehabbing a bad leg injury suffered in the season opener. Belichick has put his faith (so far, at least) in Purdue transfer Ryan Browne and freshman Bryce Baker and — well, much like hiring Belichick in the first place, this seems like a big gamble. Of course, Belichick knows a thing or two about finding a good QB, so if he doesn’t see a gem this spring, he might be able to upgrade in the next portal window.
Player to watch: Belichick spent last season as an advisor at Washington, where his son Steve was defensive coordinator. Both are at UNC now, and they brought some talent with them, including corner Thaddeus Dixon and safety Peyton Waters, who will try to lock down a Tar Heels secondary that looked a mess at times in 2024.
2024 record: 7-6 (3-5)
Spring storyline: Pitt got off to an unexpected 7-0 start last season, only to finish on an equally unexpected six-game losing streak. After winning 20 games between 2021 and 2022, Pitt has struggled to find the same winning consistency the past two seasons. The hope is that the return of quarterback Eli Holstein and all-everything back Desmond Reid, plus a healthier offensive line, in Year 2 under offensive coordinator Kade Bell will allow the Panthers to find the rhythm and consistency to win.
Position of intrigue: Pitt struggled on the offensive line last season for a variety of reasons, including injuries that hindered the overall cohesion of the group. The Panthers put an emphasis on this position group in the portal, particularly offensive tackle, signing transfers Jeff Persi (Michigan) and Kendall Stanley (Charlotte). Stanley played 706 offensive snaps, all at right tackle, this past season, while the 6-foot-8, 310-pound Persi brings an imposing presence — though he has spent the majority of his career as a backup.
Player to watch: Pitt does a terrific job developing defensive backs, and safety Cruce Brookins could be next in line. With All-ACC safety Donovan McMillon gone to the NFL, Brookins has drawn praise for his striking ability and ball skills (two interceptions in reserve duty last season, including one against West Virginia).
2024 record: 11-3 (8-0)
Spring storyline: SMU did the unprecedented last year, rolling to an ACC championship game appearance in its first year in a power conference. Despite the success the Mustangs had in their inaugural ACC season, they lost to Clemson in the ACC title game and then lost to Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. While Year 1 should be considered a success, all eyes will be on SMU to see whether it is able to sustain its momentum and position near the top of the conference.
Position of intrigue: Brashard Smith emerged last season as a dynamic playmaker for the Mustangs, gaining a school-record 1,977 all-purpose yards; now they have to find a way to replace his production. SMU signed Miami transfer Chris Johnson Jr., hoping he can follow in the footsteps of Smith, also a Miami transfer. Johnson joins returning players LJ Johnson and Derrick McFall, who showed playmaking ability as a true freshman last season in the handful of games he played.
Player to watch: The biggest question here is how quarterback Kevin Jennings responds after throwing three interceptions — two that were returned for touchdowns — in the CFP loss to Penn State. Jennings was so good for SMU the bulk of the season; how he responds to the adversity from that game will be telling.
2024 record: 3-9 (2-6)
Spring storyline: It was more of the same for Stanford in Year 1 in the ACC — a fourth straight 3-9 campaign that has increased the sense of urgency for Troy Taylor headed into his third season as Cardinal coach. Stanford was active in the transfer portal to fill key holes at receiver, offensive line and defensive back, so how those players mesh with the young talent Taylor has recruited to The Farm will ultimately determine how well Stanford does this season.
Position of intrigue: With Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson gone, former four-star recruit Elijah Brown is expected to enter spring as the starter at quarterback, and with good reason. Brown came into Stanford last year as an ESPN 300 prospect, immediately boosting hopes he could help the Cardinal win again. An injury limited him last season, so 2025 is his chance to prove he has what it takes to lead this team.
Player to watch: The new receivers are all intriguing, as Stanford looks to replace Elic Ayomanor and several others who transferred. Three are enrolled for spring: Caden High (South Carolina State), Jordan Onovughe (Colorado) and CJ Williams (Wisconsin).
2024 record: 10-3 (5-3)
Spring storyline: Fran Brown surprised and impressed in Year 1, leading Syracuse to its first 10-win season since 2018, including a regular-season finale victory over Miami that kept the Hurricanes out of the ACC title game. But this will be a very different team on offense this spring with Kyle McCord, LeQuint Allen and Oronde Gadsden all gone to the NFL draft. Indeed, the biggest questions this spring surround how the Orange are going to replace all that production.
Position of intrigue: Replacing McCord is at the top of the list. Syracuse signed transfer Rickie Collins from LSU and returns backup Michael Johnson Jr. and redshirt freshman Jakhari Williams. In addition, the Orange signed two freshmen quarterbacks in Luke Carney and Rich Belin. Offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon said Syracuse will have an open quarterback competition this spring. Though the room is missing the veteran presence McCord brought last season, Nixon said he is pleased with the depth he has among his quarterbacks.
Player to watch: Syracuse was not nearly as aggressive in the transfer portal as it was a year ago, but landing defensive lineman Chris Thomas Jr. from Marshall should help shore up a run defense that was inconsistent for most of last season.
2024 record: 5-7 (3-5)
Spring storyline: Virginia hit the transfer portal hard to boost its roster, signing 16 players in hopes of putting the Cavaliers in position to make a bowl game for the first time since 2021. While the program has made some strides since Tony Elliott was hired in 2022, he also knows this has to be the year in which significant progress is shown. His players have already spoken confidently about putting Virginia in a spot where it can compete for championships. We will get our first glimpse at the possibility this spring.
Position of intrigue: Virginia lost quarterbacks Anthony Colandrea (portal) and Tony Muskett (final season) and went into the portal to find their replacements. The headliner is Chandler Morris, now at his fourth school after spending last season at North Texas. Virginia also signed Daniel Kaelin from Nebraska as the potential quarterback of the future with four years of eligibility remaining. Look for Morris to take the reins giving his experience.
Player to watch: Linebacker Fisher Camac, a transfer from UNLV, has the ability to make the type of plays that set the tone on defense. Last season, he had 15 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 5 pass breakups, 3 QB hurries and a forced fumble.
2024 record: 6-7 (4-4)
Spring storyline: Last season was supposed to be a breakout year for Virginia Tech. Instead, the Hokies struggled to a 6-7 record, lost 24 players to the transfer portal and saw some of their best players move on to the NFL draft. Though the Hokies bring back veteran quarterback Kyron Drones, there will a lot of changes, not only from a personnel perspective but among its coaching staff, with new offensive (Philip Montgomery) and defensive coordinators (Sam Siefkes).
Position of intrigue: The Hokies have holes to fill across the board, given the roster turnover. But let’s stick with offense and look at the running back room, where leading rusher Bhayshul Tuten is off to the NFL and backup Malachi Thomas transferred. Virginia Tech signed three transfer backs: Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri State) to fill the void.
Player to watch: Wide receiver Donavon Greene, a Wake Forest transfer, brings much needed experience and a veteran presence to the young, unproven Virginia Tech receiver group. Greene has been limited by injuries over the past few seasons, so staying healthy is imperative.
2024 record: 4-8 (2-6)
Spring storyline: New coach Jake Dickert replaces Dave Clawson, who stepped down after 11 seasons and one of the most successful tenures in Wake Forest football history. Dickert spent the past four seasons at Washington State, and though he has spent the majority of his career outside the Eastern time zone, he has found success at schools similar in stature to the Demon Deacons. Much will be different this spring beyond the head coach. Wake Forest will feature a new offensive scheme for the first time in 12 years.
Position of intrigue: Wake Forest goes into spring practice with a three-way competition at quarterback, a position the Demon Deacons have struggled with since Sam Hartman departed in 2022. Sophomore Jeremy Hecklinski returns, but Wake added two transfers: Robby Ashford from South Carolina and Deshawn Purdie, who played at Charlotte last season as a freshman before briefly signing with Florida in December, then opting to leave in January.
Player to watch: Running back Demond Claiborne is one of the most under-the-radar players in the country, so keeping him in the mix is huge for Wake Forest. As their leading rusher and a dynamic kickoff returner, Claiborne ranked No. 11 in the nation in all-purpose yards in 2024 with 131.7 per game.
(The full, nine-inning Playbook was originally published during the spring of 2020. The following 2025 analysis is new.)
We’ve gone through the basics of fantasy baseball, discussed salary cap strategy and how to build a cheat sheet. We’ve also provided in-season trade and free agency tips, dug deep into the advanced stats (including those provided by Statcast) and examined the latest trends around the league.
Still, even with all those tools at your disposal, there’s no greater truth to fantasy baseball success than this: The key ingredient to winning a championship is an extensive knowledge of the player pool itself.
This final edition of the Playbook takes you through my own playbook — a file I compile and maintain annually containing notes on hundreds of players, where I’ll jot down any sort of injury report, statistical nugget or neat fact that might help in the decision-making process. It’s from this file that I craft my player rankings and ultimately create my own cheat sheets.
They’re things you might consider when drafting any of the listed names, though my rankings ultimately provide you my best estimate of each player’s current-season worth.
With that in mind, here are a few of those players who have sprung to the front of my mind as we get ready for the spring action to come:
To illustrate how truly special a talent Bobby Witt Jr. is, Statcast’s Barrel and sprint-speed metrics paint quite the picture. He is the only player in the 10-year history for which we have that data to have managed at least 10% Barrel and 30% sprint-speed rates. He placed in the 92nd percentile in the former, the 100th in the latter and is baseball’s first player with multiple 30/30 seasons before turning 25 years old.
Aaron Judge might be coming off one of the best hitting seasons in baseball history as his 223 OPS-plus was sixth-best among batting title-eligibles during the Integration Era, and he scored 630 fantasy points. However, historic campaigns often coax us to overlook the effects of regression or a player’s past injury history.
Consider that, from 2000-23, there were 39 instances of a hitter scoring 600-plus fantasy points. Over each player’s following season, that group averaged 21.4 fewer games and only 507.4 points. One-third of those players scored fewer than 500 fantasy points — including Judge himself, who missed 54 days and 42 team games with a 2023 toe injury suffered when he crashed into an outfield wall at Dodger Stadium (as well as another 11 days and 10 team games with a hip issue earlier in the year). He finished 2023 with only 106 games played and 340 fantasy points, sixth-worst among those 39 “follow-up” campaigns.
I’m as big a Judge fan as anyone, but if he’s going to cost a hefty, almost Shohei Ohtani-like premium in drafts, I’m passing on him for 2025.
A first-round pick last year, Corbin Carroll began 2024 as one of its biggest disappointments, in large part due to his struggles adapting to some swing changes he had made last winter. Carroll straightened things out shortly thereafter — something I examined in this June column — batting .256/.348/.522 with 20 home runs, 26 stolen bases and a seventh-best-among-hitters 331 fantasy points. That’s a much better representation of what should be expected from him going forward than his ghastly numbers over 2024’s first 10 weeks.
Kyle Tucker‘s injury last season — a small fracture in his shin suffered on June 3 during an at-bat — was more of a fluke than a long-term concern. Keep that in mind when evaluating him entering what is his walk year, as well as his first with the Chicago Cubs. Tucker had scored the third-most fantasy points at the time of his injury (222), and he was comparably excellent after his return, ranking 21st with 58 points from Sept. 6 until the end of the regular season. At the time he got hurt, he was on track for a third consecutive 25/25 (HR/SB) campaign, something that has been done by only nine players in history.
Although Julio Rodriguez endured a disappointing, injury-marred 2024, he still managed a third consecutive 20/20 campaign to begin his MLB career. He’s only 24 years old, and he finished last season on a high note. He hit .295/.345/.486 with nine home runs and six stolen bases over his final 43 games, during which time he had comparable Statcast average exit velocity (92.3 mph), hard-hit (50.4%) and Barrel rates (11.3%) to his numbers from 2022-23 combined (92.4, 51.7% and 12.4%). Rodriguez’s free-swinging nature continues to make him more of a premium pick in rotisserie leagues than he is in ESPN’s points-based standard, but there’s an excellent chance he’s aligned for 2025 results closer to those of 2022 or 2023.
Combining the past three seasons, only two hitters have had at least a 15% Statcast Barrel and at most a 17.5% strikeout rate: Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez. We all think of Soto as one of the best all-around hitters, with elite raw power and contact ability, but do we regard Alvarez the same? Probably not … but we should.
It’s a shame that the San Diego Padres couldn’t have claimed they played in the AL just so that Jackson Merrill could have snagged a Rookie of the Year Award in a season in which he was plenty deserving of the honor. That’s not to criticize Paul Skenes, who was every bit as worthy (and my personal pick for the award), but Merrill set a record for a player 21 years or younger with five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later. It underscored the Padres slugger’s rapidly growing raw power skills, which were most evident from June 12 onward, when he hit .304/.336/.596 with 21 home runs over 89 games. During that time, Merrill’s 14.8% Statcast Barrel rate ranked 14th, and his 38.1% fly-ball rate sat third among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances.
Let’s set aside shortened MLB seasons — the COVID-shortened 2020, in this example — for a moment. If we do that, Manny Machado would have nine consecutive complete MLB seasons with at least 28 home runs. That would make him one of only 16 players in baseball history with a streak of at least that length, underscoring his consistently excellent production even as he enters his age-32 season.
Few 2024-ending injuries warrant as close attention this spring than Rafael Devers‘ shoulder issue, which cost him 11 of the Boston Red Sox‘s final 31 games and caused him to hit only .164 with one extra-base hit, a double, in the other 20. To further illustrate the effects of the shoulder injury on his production, he had 46.0% hard-hit and 39.0% whiff rates, the former 8% beneath his rate up to that point in 2024, the latter more than 9% greater than his early-season exploits.
Statcast estimated that Anthony Santander should have been expected to hit only 36.6 home runs last season, (awfully close to the 33.3 he had in that category in the two previous seasons) and within range of the 33 (2022) and 28 (2023) he actually hit. He ended up with 44. When figuring out a three-year average to help project his 2025 potential HR output, it’s probably much wiser to chip 8-10 homers off last season’s total. Set a number around 32 as your baseline for his 2025 expectations.
Adley Rutschman was struck on the hand by a foul tip in a June 27 game, missing the Baltimore Orioles‘ next contest but no additional time. After that point, however, he managed to hit only .189/.279/.280 with four home runs over 71 games — a surefire signal that the injury took a toll on his production. Rutschman is another player whose health warrants monitoring during Grapefruit League action, as from the date of his MLB debut (5/21/22) until the date of that injury, his 214 fantasy points led all catchers and were tied for 17th-best among hitters.
Although his 2024 U.S. debut didn’t go quite as well as many hoped, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, at times, still flashed the top-shelf stuff that should quickly make him one of fantasy’s best starting pitchers. After surrendering five runs in the first inning of the season’s opening game in Japan, he posted the majors’ ninth-best ERA (2.34), 11th-best strikeout rate (28.1%) and 11th-best K/BB ratio (5.13) until he got hurt in a June 15 start. During that span, only 14 starting pitchers averaged better than his 15.3 fantasy points per start.
If rationales for Jarren Duran‘s breakthrough 2024 are what you seek, his defensive improvements rank high on that list. A liability in the field in his early MLB days, Duran was worth 11 runs defensively last season, tied for eighth-most among outfielders, and his 10 Statcast Outs Above Average between left and center field were tied for 12th-best among outfielders. That’s the kind of defensive skill that earns a player a fantasy-beneficial everyday role, as Duran played in 160 games and had a league-leading 735 plate appearances. Expect more of the same in 2025, despite Boston’s crowded roster.
Speaking of playing time benefits, Jurickson Profar‘s career bests of 158 games and 668 plate appearances had a lot to do with his 2024 rebound — one you can term a breakthrough if you weren’t wowed by his 2018. It probably also helped that he had a full spring training this time around. You may recall that after signing late in 2023, he had a miserable season. Regression nevertheless appears likely to have an effect on his 2025, especially as he hit .235/.345/.409 over his final 66 games last season.
Devin Williams‘ back injury, which cost him the first four months of the 2024 season, didn’t seem to have any adverse impact upon his performance after his activation. Among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched from the date of his July 28 activation onward, his 43.2% strikeout rate ranked second, his 14 saves tied for fourth and his .133 BAA ranked 10th.
Keep tabs on the Texas Rangers‘ lineup plans during spring training, as Marcus Semien‘s status as the team’s leadoff hitter has a good amount of say in his fantasy value. He leads the majors with 2,919 plate appearances across the past four seasons, resulting in his scoring 1,841 fantasy points, seventh-best among hitters. Going by his per-game average, however, his 2.86 ranked only 15th among hitters (minimum 400 games), and he’s coming off what was a down year as a 33-year-old in 2024. Fortunately, Semien has remained in the leadoff spot in early spring games, but any change would deepen his downside.
Matt Olson has hit 74 home runs after the All-Star break over the last four years combined, second-most in baseball to Judge’s 89. Olson has also averaged 0.49 fantasy points per game more after the break compared to his pre-break numbers over this stretch. Keep that in mind when you’re evaluating an aggressive bid for him at the draft table, relative to letting him go and instead trying to make an in-season trade for him.
George Kirby has quickly become one of my favorite high-floor fantasy pitching targets, thanks to his pinpoint control and elite stuff. In both 2023 and 2024, he pitched at least 190 innings with a sub-3% walk rate, accounting for two of the only 12 such seasons this century. Kirby, however, is one of only three different pitchers to have done that while also sporting at least a 7.5 K/BB ratio in the same year, joining Greg Maddux (1995, 1997), Cliff Lee (2010) and Phil Hughes (2014). Though Hughes is the outlier on that list, Kirby is in some impressive company with Maddux and Lee, and he’ll play this season at only 27 years old.
Only two qualified hitters last season managed at least a 45% Statcast hard-hit rate but also no greater than a 15% whiff rate on all swings last season: Yandy Diaz and Vinnie Pasquantino. Both players’ elite skills with the bat make them undervalued players, particularly Pasquantino, who hit 24 homers in the minors in 2022 and 28 combined between the majors and minors in 2023.
Willy Adames‘ 224 plate appearances with runners in scoring position last season was an MLB-leading total, as well as the most by any player since Hunter Pence in 2012. Adames drove in a league-best 93 runners in the process, something that he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat in 2025. He also stole 21 bases, almost double his previous career high for stolen base attempts (11, in 2018 and 2022). Adames remains a very good, top 10-capable fantasy shortstop, but he’s bound to regress in both the RBI and SB categories in 2025.
Over the last four seasons, Isaac Paredes has pulled 71 home runs and Christian Walker 70, the 10th- and 11th-most by any right-handed batter during that time span. That’s important, considering both players are now with the Houston Astros, where their home ballpark, Daikin Park, has the Crawford Boxes in closer-than-league-average proximity to home plate in left field.
Mason Miller became only the third rookie reliever to manage at least 25 saves, 100 strikeouts and a sub-2.50 ERA, joining Terry Forster (1972) and Craig Kimbrel (2011), which is why I was shocked to see him place only fourth in the wide-open AL Rookie of the Year balloting. Perhaps that will help him sneak relatively beneath the radar when compared to other top closers, but he has the raw stuff that compares to anyone’s. Miller led all pitchers (minimum 50 IP) in strikeout rate (41.8%), average fastball velocity (100.9 mph) and Statcast’s expected ERA (1.77).
At the age of 34 and in his 13th season in the majors, Sonny Gray enjoyed what could by many measures have been regarded a career year in 2024. If you’re worried about his ability to maintain his performance at his age, consider what he just accomplished. His 5.8% walk rate was a personal best, and last season represented the first time in his career that he has had three pitches that he threw at least 10% of the time generate at least a 30% whiff rate (sweeper, cutter and curveball).
It’s easy to underrate closers who only recently moved into their jobs, such as the Ryan Walker of the San Francisco Giants. He notched his first save last season on Aug. 10. From that date forward, his 122 fantasy points were seventh-best among relief pitchers. Among those with at least 15 appearances during that time span, his 37.3% strikeout rate tied for ninth-best, his 26.8% hard-hit rate allowed ranked 11th-best, and his 1.91 FIP was 15th-best. Walker has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy closer in 2025.
To give you a sense of what a healthy Hunter Greene can do, consider that he stayed mostly injury-free between Aug. 20, 2023, and Aug. 13, 2024 (other than a 10-day IL stint in September 2023) spanning 158 Cincinnati Reds games. Even accounting for that brief absence, he scored 416 fantasy points, a total exceeded by only 10 other starting pitchers over that time. Additionally, in that same time span, only seven qualified starting pitchers had better than his 29.3% whiff rate.
Brandon Pfaadt had a 1.11 differential between his ERA (4.71) and FIP (3.61) last season, the third-widest in that direction among qualified pitchers. It was only the 10th time this century that a qualified pitcher had an ERA more than a run higher than his FIP, as well as a sub-four FIP, signaling a high degree of unluckiness for the Arizona Diamondbacks starter. Pfaadt is a potential bargain this season.
Yes, Jacob deGrom is one of baseball’s greatest injury risks, but he has been consistently excellent around his absences. In the last five seasons alone, coming off what were back-to-back NL Cy Young Award campaigns for the right-hander, 91.5% of his starts resulted in double-digit fantasy points, the best rate in baseball among pitchers with at least five starts. That included two of his three starts fresh off Tommy John surgery in 2024, when he was limited in terms of pitch count. Additionally, 51.1% of deGrom’s starts in that same five-year span were worth at least 20 fantasy points, also an MLB-leading rate.
If there’s any time to take a chance on deGrom, it’s now, with him fully recovered from his most recent surgery and having shown a high level of skill in his brief return.
Elly De La Cruz did have an MLB-leading 218 strikeouts during his breakthrough 2024, but don’t let that scare you about his potential growth entering his third big-league season. That he incrementally improved his selectivity at the plate last season bodes well. In 2023, De La Cruz chased a non-strike 29.2% of the time while in Triple-A ball, and 32.8% of the time with the Reds. Last season, he cut that rate down to 26.9%.
Mind Spencer Schwellenbach‘s workload increased last season, as it’s probably the best argument against his potential to advance into the top-10 fantasy starting pitchers in 2025. He was one of 16 pitchers in professional ball to experience at least a 100-inning boost, accounting for work at all pro levels and in foreign leagues, and he was the youngest pitcher among that group.
For those curious about the other pitchers under the age of 30 who were also on that list: Aaron Ashby, Shane Baz, Garrett Crochet, Davis Daniel, Ryan Feltner, Luis Gil, J.T. Ginn, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Carlos Rodon, Yariel Rodriguez and Trevor Rogers.
The Astros seemed to crack the Yusei Kikuchi code, following their acquisition of the left-hander at the trade deadline. They coaxed him to decrease his four-seam fastball usage while leaning much more heavily upon his slider. In fact, last August and September were two of the only four months in which he has thrown fewer than 50% four-seamers and 30%-plus sliders across the past three seasons.
In those four months, he averaged 12.3 fantasy points per appearance. In the other 14 months, he averaged just 7.9 points per outing. Kikuchi’s time with the Astros represented two of his seven best-scoring months from 2021-23. Here’s hoping the Los Angeles Angels, his new team, have him continue with similar pitch selection.
James Wood does need to get more lift on the ball before he’ll truly break out at the MLB level, but to give you an idea of how much offensive potential he’d have once he does, consider his contact quality of 2024. His 59.1% Statcast hard-hit rate while at Triple-A Rochester led that level (among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances), while his 52.0% rate in his 79 games while with the Washington Nationals placed in the 96th percentile among hitters with at least 150 batted balls. Keep an eye out for any shifts in Wood’s swing path this spring.
Only two players had at least 150 plate appearances in each of the past three seasons, while improving their in-zone contact rate in both of the past two years: Shea Langeliers and Michael Massey. In Langeliers’ case, he’s a potential bargain backstop, and bear in mind that his 534 plate appearances last season were seventh-most among catchers.
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