Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD is on track to overtake Tesla in battery electric vehicle sales this year, with its BEV market share expected to surge, according to a Counterpoint Research report.

“This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the global EV market,” Counterpoint analysts said in the report released Tuesday.

BYD’s second-quarter battery EV sales jumped nearly 21% year on year to 426,039 units, according to CNBC’s calculations. Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries fell 4.8% to 443,956 vehicles.

Last year, BYD’s total production – comprising battery-only powered cars as well as hybrids – was more than 3 million and surpassed Tesla’s production of 1.84 million cars for a second straight year.

BYD, however, manufactured 1.6 million battery-only passenger cars and 1.4 million hybrids, putting Tesla on top in terms of BEV production.

BYD also lost the top EV vendor spot to the U.S. EV giant in the first quarter.

Counterpoint said China “remains a dominant force in the BEV market” with BYD leading the way. China’s BEV sales are estimated to be four times that of North America’s in 2024, the research firm said.

China will continue to hold more than 50% market share of global BEV sales until 2027 and Chinese BEV sales are projected to top the combined sales of North America and Europe in 2030, according to Counterpoint.

Last month, the European Union announced it would slap additional tariffs on Chinese EV firms to tackle the “threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry.”

BYD will be subject to additional tariffs of 17.4%, Geely will invite an extra 20% duty. SAIC will have to pay additional duties of 38.1% — the highest among the three. This is on top of the standard 10% duty already imposed on imported EVs.

The duties are currently provisional, but will be introduced from July 4, if discussions with Chinese authorities do not result in a resolution, the commission said in a statement on June 12.

“The EU’s new tariff rates for Chinese EVs aim to level the playing field for European EV manufacturers, which are struggling to compete with lower-priced Chinese imports,” said Counterpoint Research’s associate director Liz Lee.

“These tariffs might push Chinese automakers towards emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand,” Lee added.

Global BEV sales are projected to reach 10 million in 2024, coinciding with the continued decline of internal combustion engine vehicles, the report said. The growth will be supported by efforts aimed at improving cost-efficiency and affordability for EVs and EV batteries.

– CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

Tesla on Tuesday posted its second-quarter vehicle production and deliveries numbers for 2024, beating analysts expectations.

Here are the key numbers:

Total deliveries Q2 2024: 443,956 vehicles

Total production Q2 2024: 410,831 vehicles

Tesla’s numbers beat Wall Street estimates. Analysts expected Tesla deliveries to hit 439,000 in the three months ending June 30, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. The total number of deliveries in the second quarter was down 4.8% from 466,140 a year earlier but 14.8% higher than the first quarter of 2024.

Shares in the EV maker rose more than 8% in early trading on better-than-expected deliveries report.

Before the report, Tesla shares were down 16% in 2024 even after rallying 6% on Monday.

Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the electric vehicle maker. Tesla groups deliveries into two categories — Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, and all other vehicles — but doesn’t report numbers for individual models or specific regions.

Tesla’s current lineup includes its popular Model Y crossover utility vehicles, Model 3 sedans and the new Cybertruck pickups, as well as the Model X SUV and flagship Model S sedan.

In April, Tesla reported a drop of 8.5% in first-quarter deliveries to 386,810, the first annual decline since 2020. Weeks later the company reported a 13% decline in year-over-year revenue for the quarter, “primarily due to lower average selling price.”

Sluggish sales were in part the result of temporary factory shutdowns initiated in response to an alleged arson attack at Tesla’s factory in Germany, as well as shipping delays following Red Sea conflicts, Tesla said.

But the sales drop also correlated with Tesla’s aging lineup of vehicles, increased competition from other EV makers especially in China, and brand erosion that one recent survey attributed partly to CEO Elon Musk’s “antics” and “political rants.”

Tesla has offered a range of discounts and other incentives this year to try to spur sales.

In China, Tesla is currently offering a zero-interest loan as an incentive to get customers to buy a Model 3 or Model Y by July 31. According to its 2023 annual filing, Tesla generated about $21.75 billion of its overall revenue from China, representing 22.5% of total sales.

Colin Langan, an analyst at Wells Fargo, issued a report on Monday, saying the firm sees “declining delivery growth driven by lower demand & diminished return on price cuts.” He recommends selling Tesla shares.

Wells Fargo expects automotive gross margins at Tesla, not including environmental credits, to fall given the “likelihood of more price cuts & lower volumes” as the year continues.

Investor focus will now shift to Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report later this month and a separate marketing event planned for August when the company intends to reveal its design for a dedicated robotaxi or “CyberCab.”

— CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

Bitcoin has not reached the top of its current appreciation cycle and is likely to go past its all-time high this year, according to a research report released by CCData on Tuesday.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of above $73,700 in March but has since been trading within a range between roughly $59,000 and $72,000.

The journey to the record high in March was largely driven by the approval and launch of the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the U.S. in January. They have attracted net inflows to date of around $14.41 billion to date, according to CCData.

ETFs allow investors to buy a product that tracks the price of bitcoin without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. Crypto proponents say this has helped legitimize the asset class and make it easier for larger institutional investors to get involved.

The bitcoin “cycle” refers to the period in which the digital currency ascends to a new record high, then falls again to enter a bear market or “crypto winter.” These cycles — of which three have now been completed since the launch of bitcoin — have tended to follow a similar pattern.

That has been centered around an event called the halving, during which the reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the supply of bitcoin onto the market.

Typically, halving often occurs months before bitcoin hits an all-time high for the cycle. This current cycle has been different. Bitcoin rose to its latest record high before halving due to the bullishness around the ETFs in the U.S.

With bitcoin trading within a range after the all-time high, many have questioned whether the cryptocurrency has reached the top of the current cycle.

CCData’s report, which examined historical bitcoin price movements, suggests it can reach a new height. The data and research firm said historical trends have shown that the halving event has always preceded a period of price expansion that can last anywhere from 366 days to 548 days “before producing a cycle top, with each halving experiencing a longer cycle than the one prior, due to maturation of the asset class and lowered volatility.”

The last bitcoin halving took place on April 19 this year, so those historical timeframes have yet to pass.

“Moreover, we have observed a decline in trading activity on centralised exchanges for nearly two months following the halving event in previous cycles, which seems to have mirrored this cycle. This suggests that the current cycle could expand further into 2025,” CCData said.

The analysts acknowledged that the “influence of institutional participants in the industry” in the current cycle has “altered the previous trends,” adding that low trading activity is likely to take place in the third quarter, which could in turn suggest more sideways price action.

“However, the data and previous trends are strong enough to suggest that any sideways price action is temporary, and we are likely to breach the previous all-time highs once again before the end of the year,” CCData said.

The company’s report said that the upcoming launch of an Ethereum ETF in the U.S. and other similar products around the world “is destined to bring further capital, liquidity and demand to the asset class.”

CCData highlighted another key historical data point to support its thesis, saying that the price appreciation of bitcoin takes place over a short time. For example, in the 2012 cycle, 91.4% of bitcoin’s overall price expansion from halving to the record high happened in the four months before the cycle peak. This share of price increase was 78.8% and 71.5% in the four months before the respective record highs of the 2016 and 2020 cycles.

“Such parabolic expansion is yet to be made in the current cycle,” CCData said.

Other commentators have highlighted how historical patterns in bitcoin have played out.

“Historically, market cycles peak 12 to 18 months after a Bitcoin Halving, which last took place in April of this year. We also haven’t seen volatility reach prior peak highs. Lastly, prior market cycle peaks coincided with a rapid succession of all time highs – upwards of 10 to 20 new highs set in a 30-day window,” Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken told CNBC by email.

“We haven’t triggered any of these signals yet,” Perfumo said.