Agora CO2 Redox Battery Wins Global Deeptech Competitions & Has 1 Year ROI
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4 years agoon
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adminAgora Energy Technologies just won the 2021 Keeling Curve Prize for Capture & Utilization, sharing it with another firm this year. Earlier this year, it won first prize in the Hello Tomorrow global deeptech competition against 5,000 entrants from 128 countries. Agora’s technology is revolutionary, and the awards are well deserved. They picked up the Asian Alibaba Entrepreneur Fund Award in 2020, and the CEO, Christina Gyenge, PhD, is one of three 2021 Fellows in the Cartier Women’s Initiative science and technology global competition as well. As a result, they’ve been talking to global technology firms, and Canadian trade ambassadors for France and Hong Kong among others.
So, what is their award-winning technology, and what’s so great about it? For those interested in the deep electrochemistry, I recommend reading their peer-reviewed paper on their approach, The carbon dioxide redox flow battery: Bifunctional CO2 reduction/formate oxidation electrocatalysis on binary and ternary catalysts published May 31st, 2021 in the Journal of Power Sources (Impact factor: a very respectable 8.87 in 2021), but otherwise, here’s the low down.
Agora’s technology is a redox flow battery. That tech has been around for a while. NASA was working on them in the 1970s. The first one was stood up at the University of New South Wales, Australia in 1984, using the metal vanadium as a core component of its electrolyte. Commercial variants started appearing in the past decade, all using metals as the basis of their electrolytes. Bill Gates has invested in an iron-based one via Breakthrough, and it’s one of the few of his investments in climate solutions I consider to be a decent choice.
Where do redox flow batteries fit? I have an opinion, having gone deep on energy storage over the past few years, including a series on closed-loop, pumped storage hydro and looking at lithium-ion battery futures with a PhD student of Stanford’s Mark Z. Jacobson, as well as talking with Professor Jacobson directly about storage. In my opinion, lithium-ion in its various incarnations will deal with a lot of 4-8 hour demand management and ancillary grid balancing requirements, including some duck-curve issues. Redox flow batteries will compete a bit for same day storage, depending on the technology, and extend out for 1-3 days or even longer up to several weeks. Closed-loop, pumped hydro storage will mostly take over after 2-3 days and extend out to 2-3 week storage. A lot less storage is required than many people assert, but still a great deal of storage is required, and the solutions will overlap. In other words, redox flow batteries will be a big part of a big market.
Lithium-ion batteries are limited to short-term storage because their energy and power attributes scale in lockstep. The more MWh a lithium-ion battery can store, by definition the more MW it supplies. There are some hacks you can do with that, but effectively you get to a point where you don’t need that many MW at a time, so lithium-ion is unwieldy in the system. Great for demand management with the likely 20 TWh of lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles in the US alone by 2050 by my estimation, but that won’t help much for next day or next week storage.
Redox flow batteries dodge this. They use big tanks of chemicals separate from the bits that transform one type of chemical into another, storing the energy, or transforming it back or into something else, releasing the energy. That separates the power and energy attributes of the battery. You can scale up the MWh storage of the battery as much as you want, while maintaining the same MW of electricity capacity. They share that benefit with closed-loop, pumped storage hydro, but without the necessity to put 30-foot diameter tunnels through miles of rock.
Think of it like a car engine and a gas tank. The gas tank is the energy store, and determines how long you can drive for. The engine provides the horsepower, which says how much work you can do. Energy is MWh. Horsepower is MW. Lithium-ion batteries put both in a single package, and to get more energy, you have to add lots of both energy and power, meaning you end up with too much power a lot of the time. But redox flow batteries separate the gas tank and the engine, just like in car. That means you can get as much energy as you need, with only as much power as you need. And because they are stationary, you can make the gas tank as big as you want.
Not All Redox Flow Batteries Are Created Equal
Most of the technologies were patented decades ago. Except for Agora’s, they all use metals, often toxic ones, and usually expensive ones. They have weaknesses in terms of energy density or durability. The metals used for electrolytes and the semi-precious metals used for catalysts make them capital intensive. Many of the technologies have unsolved challenges. They are batteries, and that’s all they are. Many are good, but aren’t amazing. And they are comparatively expensive.
Then there’s Agora’s solution. First, the team.
The co-founders are Christina Gyenge and Elod Gyenge, both PhDs. Christina is CEO and in addition to her chemical engineering PhD has done post-doctoral work at Stanford and multi-disciplinary work across biology and biological systems chemical and energy engineering. Elod is the President of the company and CSO as well as a professor of chemical engineering at UBC. He is a leader in electrochemical engineering research and has been recognized with numerous international awards and honors. Elod has extensive industrial experience and has collaborated with Ballard and Fortune 500 companies on chemical engineering around fuel cells and related technologies. The Director of R&D at Agora is Dr. Pooya Hosseini-Benhangi. Pooya obtained his PhD at UBC in Elod’s group and has also spent time applying electrochemistry to gold mineral processing as a post-doctoral fellow. The core redox flow battery innovations are protected by patents in various stages of finalization in 52 countries, with the Israeli patent just awarded. Several electrochemical and chemical engineers round out the mix.
Christina and Elod started working in this space in 2012. They have three primary innovations that are unique as far as I am aware.
The first is that they are using gaseous CO2 in the charging phase in a hybrid gas-liquid redox flow battery. Reversing it in the closed-loop model produces CO2 again, unpacking the energy. A major advantage of this is that CO2 and the other chemicals are cheap, non-toxic and common, unlike the metal-based electrolytes of vanadium and other metal-based redox batteries. As with many fields, paradigms are hard to dig out of, and batteries being metal-based is one of those tough paradigms. The closed-loop battery model doesn’t consume the CO2, but CO2 is very cheap by the ton, $30-$100, making the economics of this approach better than metal-based batteries, where the metals often cost thousands or tens of thousands of dollars per ton. Their work on CO2 gas diffusion exchange is cutting edge, well ahead of most others, and a massive technical differentiator as well as a strong value add.
The second deep insight is their catalyst. It’s a core part of their intellectual capital that they are protecting for a simple reason. The catalyst is a cheap and common substance, overcoming a different challenge for many other flow batteries and fuel cells, which typically use semi-precious metals such as platinum, which typically range from $30 – $60 per gram. While little of the precious metals is used per cell, when you start multiplying by thousands of cells, it starts to add up quickly.
But the biggest one in my opinion is the open-loop model. A closed-loop model transforms the CO2 from one chemistry to another, and then back. In the open-loop model when the energy is extracted, the CO2-based chemicals are transformed to carbonates or bicarbonates.
Why is that important? Well, there are a few reasons. The first is that carbonates and bicarbonates are big business. My assessment sees a $44 billion annual market for the chemicals that Agora’s tech can produce from waste CO2 and clean electricity. The second is that this displaces the Solvay process. I’ve looked at that industrial process, just as I’ve looked at cement production, and Agora’s approach is so much cleaner it’s painful. The Solvay process produces a net 2.74 tons of CO2 per tons of bicarbonates produced in the 1870s chemical process involving ammonia, heating with natural gas, and cooling in different steps. Every box of baking soda you’ve ever bought comes with an invisible 3 boxes of CO2 by mass, in other words. More on this in the next article.
In Agora’s process, lower-cost renewably generated electricity flows in at night or other times of day when it happens to be cheap, the process runs at room temperature, and no ammonia is involved. You could put Agora’s tech in a light-industrial building downtown and no one would notice. The third is that it consumes waste CO2, instead of producing a lot of CO2 as the Solvay process does. This is one of the few carbon usage models that makes fiscal and technical sense, and fits as an industrial component of the future. I know, I’ve spent a lot of time assessing carbon capture and industrial processes’ CO2 footprints.
But it’s the combination that’s key. It’s a battery. Shove renewable electricity into it, and get clean electricity back. Lots of tech does that. However, Agora’s tech has excellent energy density, and great durability too. It can store a lot of electricity for the mass and cycle it a lot of times. Using CO2 instead of metals makes it a lot cheaper. And their catalyst being cheap due to the chemistry makes it even cheaper.
Those basic factors make it cheaper than most other forms of storage automatically. Cheaper to build. Cheaper to operate. Lower cost storage. Agora has done four fiscal case studies with LafargeHolcim for the technology applied to wind energy grid balancing and an integrated low-carbon cement plant of the future, so the numbers have been scrubbed backward and forward.
And the kicker is the carbonate and bicarbonate production. It consumes waste CO2. It produces useful chemicals. Bicarbonates are in lots of things. Food. Toothpaste. Antacids. And they are worth from $200 – $600 per ton, depending on the chemistry and the purity. Imagine a battery that lasts a long time, eats CO2, and produces useful industrial chemicals. It’s a trifecta.
These battery technology comparison charts are early and indicative, not late, based on rock solid numbers, or seriously reviewed. I pulled them together based on discussions, but they haven’t been validated. My gut tells me that they are close to right in terms of scale, but there’s more work to do on them. And more variants of these assessments to produce. No wonder Hello Tomorrow, the Keeling Curve Prize Team and the Cartier’s Womens Initiative picked Agora. I saw this 20 months ago. The Agora team saw this close to a decade ago.
Their solution isn’t a thornless bed of roses, of course.
The CO2 is transformed into an acid on the way through the process into the storage medium, so that requires care in handling. The set of chemicals include bromine variants. While bromine is an essential trace element in human biology, as with dihydrogen monoxide too much is lethal. The toxicity of the bromine is a concern that must be managed. Other alternatives are less efficient.
They are at lab efficiency levels right now. While projections indicate that they will get over 80% in terms of round-trip storage, this hasn’t been demonstrated. They are at the MVP stage or technology level four, and need to build a scaled prototype. That’s going to take 2-3 years, and another few million dollars.
They aren’t a manufacturing and distribution firm or a chemical commodity firm, but a technical innovation firm. They need a global manufacturing partner and a chemical commodity partner. Firms like that have been knocking on their door a lot in the past couple of years, and a lot more with the various prizes this year.
Agora’s CO2-based redox flow batteries will be a core technology assisting us to bend the Keeling Curve back down. Hello Tomorrow indeed.
Full disclosure. I have a professional relationship with Agora as a strategic advisor and Board observer. I did an initial strategy session with Agora about their redox flow battery technology in late 2019 and was blown away by what they had in hand, and my formal role with the firm started at the beginning of 2021. I commit to being as objective and honest as always, but be aware of my affiliation.
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Environment
2025 Ram ProMaster EV (finally) lives up to its initial promise
Published
2 hours agoon
February 23, 2025By
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For 2025, the Ram ProMaster EV commercial van gets up to 180 miles range from its 110 kWh battery pack, new 12- and 13-foot cargo configurations to meet more fleets’ needs, and a starting price of “just” $56,495. All of which sounds … kind of familiar, right?
When Ram rolled out its ProMaster EV electric cargo van last year, the company promised a huge range of customizable features, 12- and 13- configurations, a “super high roof” variant, and more – even touting a heated windshield. Which is almost exactly what you’ll find hyped up in the latest Stellantis press release for the “All-new 2025 Ram ProMaster EV Cargo Van.”
So, if it’s basically the same van, what’s the story here?
Glad you asked – see, the 2024 announcement for the ProMaster EV made lots of promises, but anecdotal conversations revealed that the vast majority of ProMaster EVs that made it customers last year were the step van version, with its “pocket” side door and roll-up rear door.
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That makes sense, considering that’s how Stellantis’ prime customers for the Ram ProMaster EV, Merchants Fleet …
The Ram Truck brand has announced that Merchants Fleet will become a key commercial customer of the all-new Ram ProMaster electric van (EV) that debuts later this year. The agreement calls for the purchase of 12,500 Ram ProMaster EVs.
STELLANTIS; JUN2023.
… and Amazon …
Stellantis, with input from Amazon, designed the vehicle with unique last mile delivery features and Amazon will deploy the vehicles to routes across the United States. Building on the current relationship and as part of the long-term agreement, Stellantis and Amazon will be putting thousands of BEV ProMasters on the road every year.
STELLANTIS; JAN2022.
Spec’ed them out.
Co-developed with Amazon
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The story here, then, is that the conventional cargo variants (sliding van door, split-opening rear doors, etc.) are finally available for smaller fleets and van-lifers to order, production capacity apparently having caught up to demand. It’s that van, when ordered in a 12-foot cargo/low roof spec, that pushes that range estimate up to 180 miles. The high-roof version gets a claimed 164 miles of range.
“Our freedom of choice approach with powertrain extends to the Ram Professional lineup with an appropriate solution for last-mile delivery in the Ram ProMaster EV,” says Tim Kuniskis, Ram brand CEO. “With front-wheel drive and a low step-in height, the ProMaster is a solid player and continues to perform well in a wide variety of business sectors, such as the growing home delivery environment, construction services wholesale and IT services among others.”
For 2025, Stellantis has “repositioned” the ProMaster EV step van with a new, lower starting price to match its improved availability. The van can now be had for $69,995 plus $1,995 destination fee. That’s down significantly from the $79,990 starting price for 2024 – proving once again that old adage: good things come to those who wait.
For that money, you get the “All-new” Ram that’s so All-new, in fact, that Stellantis issued almost the exact same press photos they used at the 2024 launch. The order books for the 2025 ProMaster EV officially opened last week.
Electrek’s Take
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Commercial vans for regional fleets are a no-brainer. Why? Because fleet managers are focused on the bottom line costs of operating their fleets – and, regardless of their political leanings, EVs cost less to own and operate than comparable ICE models. Until that fact changes, converting whatever assets to they can to electric will remain a priority.
If the “All-new” 2025 model is so similar, the specs so close, the photos so indistinguishable from the 2024 model that it takes your humble author nearly a week to figure if there’s even a story here at all hardly matters for a $10,000 price cut.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Stellantis.
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Environment
Westinghouse sees path to building cheaper nuclear plants after costly past
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7 hours agoon
February 23, 2025By
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Cooling towers and reactors 3 and 4 are seen at the nuclear-powered Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, U.S. Aug. 13, 2024.
Megan Varner | Reuters
Expanding two power plants in Georgia and South Carolina with big, new reactors was supposed to spark a “nuclear renaissance” in the U.S. after a generation-long absence of new construction.
Instead, Westinghouse Electric Co.’s state-of-the-art AP1000 design resulted in long delays and steep cost overruns, culminating in its bankruptcy in 2017. The fall of Westinghouse was a major blow for an industry that the company had helped usher in at the dawn of the nuclear age. It was Westinghouse that designed the first reactor to enter commercial service in the U.S., at Shippingport, Pennsylvania in 1957.
Two new AP1000 reactors at Plant Vogtle near Augusta, Georgia started operating in 2023 and 2024, turning the plant into the largest energy generation site of any kind in the nation and marking the first new operational nuclear reactor design in 30 years. But the reactors came online seven years behind schedule and $18 billion over budget.
In the wake of Westinghouse’s bankruptcy, utilities in South Carolina stopped construction in 2017 on two reactors at the V.C. Summer plant near Columbia after sinking $9 billion into the project.
But today, interest in new nuclear power is reviving as the tech sector seeks reliable, carbon-free electricity to power its artificial intelligence ambitions, especially against China. Westinghouse emerged from bankruptcy in 2018 and was acquired by Canadian uranium miner Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management in November 2023
The changed environment means South Carolina sees an opportunity to finish the two reactors left partially built at V.C. Summer eight years ago. The state’s Santee Cooper public utility in January began seeking a buyer for the site to finish reactor construction, citing data center demand as one of the reasons to move ahead.
“We are extraordinarily bullish on the case for V.C. Summer,” Dan Lipman, president of energy systems at Westinghouse, told CNBC in an interview. “We think completing that asset is vital, doable, economic, and we will do everything we can to assist Santee Cooper and the state of South Carolina with implementing a decision that results in the completion of the site.”
Tech as a nuclear catalyst
The United States has tried to revive nuclear power for a quarter century, but the two reactors in Georgia mark the only entirely new construction across that period despite bipartisan support under every president from George W. Bush to Donald Trump.
A fresh start was supposed to have begun more than a decade ago, but was choked off by a wave of closures of older reactors as nuclear struggled to compete against a boom of cheap natural gas created by the shale revolution.
“We went from an environment in the aughts of rising gas imports and rising gas prices to fracking technology unlocking quite a bit of affordable natural gas here in the U.S., and companies didn’t really value the firm clean attribute of nuclear back then,” said John Kotek of the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry lobby group, and former assistant secretary at the Office of Nuclear Energy under President Barack Obama.
What’s different in 2025 is the tech sector’s voracious appetite for power translating into a willingness to pay a premium for nuclear. But recent investments in nuclear have focused on restarting abandoned reactors and attempting to bring online smaller, next-generation modular reactors that many believe are the future, if they can be designed and built more cheaply.
The troubled nuclear plant at Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania that almost melted down in 1979 is expected to resume operations in 2028 after owner Constellation Energy struck a power purchase agreement with Microsoft last September. Constellation wants to restart Unit 1, which shut for economic reasons in 2019, not the Unit 2 reactor that was the site of the accident.
Alphabet and Amazon invested in small nuclear reactors a month later. Meta Platforms, owner of Facebook and Instagram, asked developers in December to submit proposals for up to 4 gigawatts of new nuclear power to meet the energy needs of its data centers.
But while the recent focus in the U.S. has been on restarts and commercializing small reactors, Lipman said the extent of potential demand that has emerged from data centers over the past year has led to renewed interest in Westinghouse’s large AP1000 reactor design.
In any event, there are no operational small reactors in the U.S. today, though startups and industry stalwarts, including Westinghouse, are racing to commercialize the technology. And there only so many shuttered plants in the U.S. in good enough shape to potentially be restarted.
Gargantuan undertaking
Meanwhile, meeting the demand for power is a gargantuan undertaking. Meta’s need for new nuclear power, for example, is nearly equivalent to the entire 4.8 gigawatts of generating capacity at the Vogtle plant, enough to power more than 2 million homes and businesses. Large nuclear plants with a gigawatt or more of capacity — the size of the AP1000 — will be essential to power large industrial sites like data centers because of their economies of scale and low production costs once they’re up and running, according to a recent Department of Energy report.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp called for another reactor at Vogtle the same day he dedicated the plant expansion in May 2024. Southern Company CEO Chris Womack believes at least 10 gigawatts of large nuclear are needed. Southern is the parent company of Georgia Power which operates Vogtle.
“The people that are going to own and operate AP1000s traditionally are investor-owned electric utilities,” Lipman said. “When they look at the marketplace for a large reactor, AP1000 is where they turn because it’s got a license, it’s operational.”
Still, nobody in the U.S. is on the verge of signing an order for a new AP1000, he said. Westinghouse is focused on deploying reactors in Eastern and Central Europe, where nuclear projects are seen as a national security necessity to counter dependency on Russian natural gas after the invasion of Ukraine.
FILE PHOTO: In this Sept. 21, 2016, file photo, V.C. Summer Nuclear Station’s unit two’s turbine is under construction near Jenkinsville, S.C., during a media tour of the facility.
Chuck Burton | AP
In addition to the two units in Georgia, Westinghouse also has four operational reactors in China.
But South Carolina’s search for someone to complete the partially built reactors at V.C. Summer will likely draw investment from Big Tech “hyperscalers” building data centers, and large manufacturers like the auto industry, Lipman said.
“That kind of asset attracts industry that relies on 24/7, 365 energy and that’s what you get with an AP1000,” Lipman said. There are ongoing discussions within the industry about whether the tech sector might act as a developer that invests capital in the upfront costs of building new plants, he said.
What went wrong in the South
Any attempt to build new AP1000s in the U.S. again will almost certainly meet with skepticism after the experiences in South Carolina and Georgia.
Lipman said the challenges that the AP1000 construction faced in the South have been resolved. Back then, Westinghouse agreed to the projects before the reactor design was complete, and supply chains weren’t fully formed due to a long period in which U.S. construction was dormant, he said.
“One big lesson learned, maybe the big lesson learned, is designs need to be complete before they hit the field, meaning they have to be shovel ready,” Lipman said. The design for the AP1000 is complete and Westinghouse has its supply chain in place, he said.
“We have winnowed over our list of suppliers,” Lipman said. “They are supporting us globally, and so it’s really easy then to have them make more equipment for deployment.”
“You’re getting economies of scale,” he said.
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Ironically, given the overruns in Georgia, the original aim of AP1000 was reduce costs by creating a standardized design that requires less construction materials compared to older reactor types, Lipman said. Components of the plant are prefabricated before being assembled on site, he said.
“You basically assemble, kit-like, major portions of the plant in a modular fashion, a bit like aircraft and submarines are done,” Lipman said. “That was not fully shaken out completely at the Vogtle site.”
The Department of Energy under the Biden administration argued in a September report that future AP1000 builds should be less expensive because they won’t incur costs associated with the first-of-a-kind project in Georgia. Support from the department’s loan office, tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, and shorter construction timelines would substantially reduce costs, according to the report.
Trump plans for nuclear
While President Donald Trump is supportive of nuclear, it’s unclear whether the industry will receive support through DOE loans and the investment tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Those tools were pillars of the Biden administration’s plan to help reduce the cost of new AP1000s.
Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office that directed federal agencies to remove obstacles to development of nuclear energy resources. The same order, however, paused all spending under the IRA. Two weeks later, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright made commercializing “affordable and abundant nuclear energy” a priority in a Feb. 5 order.
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“The long talked about nuclear renaissance is finally going to happen, that is a priority for me personally and for President Trump and this administration,” Wright told CNBC in a Feb. 7 interview. Wright was previously a board member of Oklo, a nuclear startup that aims to disrupt the status quo of the industry by deploying micro reactors later this decade.
Wright emphasized commercializing small reactors and said private capital would drive the construction of new plants. Before the November election, Trump was skeptical of building large reactors, citing the cancelled project in South Carolina.
“They get too big and too complex and too expensive,” he told Joe Rogan in an October interview.
Lipman said the first Trump administration was pro-nuclear, and he expects the president will support the industry in his second term.
“If there’s going to be gigawatt scale deployment in the U.S., decision making needs to accelerate,” Lipman said. “The business model, the investment climate, any legislative changes that might be in the offing at the state level or the federal, now is the time to address those pertinent issues.”
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.
Environment
Fintechs like Block and PayPal are battling like never before to be your all-in-one online bank
Published
1 day agoon
February 22, 2025By
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Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter Inc., speaks during the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, Florida, U.S., on Friday, June 4, 2021.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Jack Dorsey’s Block got started as Square, offering small businesses a simple way to accept payments via smartphone. Affirm began as an online lender, giving consumers more affordable credit options for retail purchases. PayPal upended finance more than 25 years ago by letting businesses accept online payments.
The three fintechs, which were each launched by tech luminaries in different eras of Silicon Valley history, are increasingly converging as they seek to become virtual all-in-one banks. In their latest earnings reports this month, their lofty ambitions became more clear than ever.
Block was the last of the three to report, and the high-level numbers were troubling. Earnings and revenue missed estimates, sending the stock down 18%, its steepest drop in five years. But to hear Dorsey discuss the results, Block is successfully implementing a strategy of offering consumers the ability to pay businesses by smartphone, send money to friends through Cash App, and access credit and debit services while also getting more ways to invest in bitcoin.
“In 2024, we expanded Square from a payments tool into a full commerce platform, enhanced Cash App’s financial services offerings, and restructured our organization,” Dorsey said on Block’s earnings call on Thursday after the bell.
Block and an expanding roster of fintech rivals have all come to see that their moats aren’t strong enough in their core markets to keep the competition away, and that the path to growth is through a diverse set of financial services traditionally offered by banks. They’re playing to an audience of digital-first consumers who either didn’t grow up using a brick-and-mortar bank or realized at an early age that they had no need to ever set foot in a physical branch, or to meet with a loan officer or customer service rep.
“Longer term, we see a significant opportunity to grow actives, particularly among that digital-native audience like Millennial and Gen Z,” Block CFO Amrita Ahuja said on the earnings call.
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As part of its expansion, Block has encroached on Affirm’s turf, with an increasing focus on buy now, pay later (BNPL) offerings that it picked up in its $29 billion purchase of Afterpay, which closed in early 2022. Block’s market share in BNPL increased by one point to 19%, while Affirm held its position at 17%, according to a recent report from Mizuho. Both companies are outperforming Klarna in BNPL, the report said.
Block’s BNPL play is now tied into Cash App, with an integration activated this week that gives users another way to make purchases through a single app. With Cash App monthly active users stagnating at 57 million for the last few quarters, the company is focused on engagement rather than rapid user acquisition.
“We think that there is significant opportunity for growth longer term, but there are some deliberate decisions we’ve made as part of our banker-based strategy in the near term” that have kept user numbers from increasing, Ahuja said. “This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base.”
Compared to Block, Wall Street had a very different reaction to Affirm’s earnings earlier this month, pushing the stock up 22% after the company’s results sailed past estimates.
Affirm founder and CEO Max Levchin, who was previously a co-founder of PayPal, built his company with the promise of giving consumers lower-cost and easy-to-tap intstallment loans for purchases like electronics, jewelry and travel.
The BNPL battlefront
In its latest earnings report, Affirm posted a 35% increase in gross merchandise volume to $10.1 billion. Revenue surged 47% to $770 million, while its active consumer base grew 23% to 21 million.
Beyond BNPL, Levchin has pushed Affirm into debit with the Affirm Card, which now has 1.7 million active users, up 136% year-over-year.
“Anything we can do to personalize the experience, to give people a chance to feel like this is the best alternative they have to their debit or their credit card is what we’re busy with,” Levchin said on the earnings call. He said the goal is to get the card to 20 million users, spending on average $7,500 per year.
Affirm is also partnering with FIS to bring its debit card functionality to traditional banks.
Levchin left PayPal in 2002, after the company was acquired by eBay. It was a decade before he’d start working to help popularize the modern day BNPL market.
Now his former employer, which spun back out from eBay in 2015, is in on the BNPL game.

Under the leadership of CEO Alex Chriss, who took over the company in September 2023, PayPal is in the midst of a turnaround that involves working to better monetize products like Braintree and Venmo and joining the world of physical commerce with a debit card inside its mobile app.
Investors responded positively in 2024, pushing the stock up almost 40% after a brutal few years. But the stock dropped 13% after its earnings report, even as profit and revenue were better than expected. PayPal’s total payment volume for the quarter hit $437.8 billion, slightly below projections, while transaction margins rose to 47% from 45.8% — a sign of improving profitability.
One of Chriss’ big pushes is to get more out of Venmo, which has long been a popular way for friends to pay each other but hasn’t been a big hit with businesses. Venmo’s total payment volume in the quarter rose 10% year-over-year, with increased adoption at DoorDash, Starbucks, and Ticketmaster.
PayPal is also promoting Venmo’s debit card and “Pay With Venmo,” which saw 30% and 20% monthly active growth in 2024, respectively. The company is introducing new services to improve merchant retention, including its Fastlane one-click checkout feature, designed to compete with Apple Pay and Shopify’s Shop Pay.
Last year, the company launched PayPal Everywhere, a cashback-driven initiative designed to boost engagement within its mobile app. Chriss said on the earnings call that it’s “driving significant increases in debit card adoption and opening new categories of spend.”
As with virtually all financial services products, the new offerings from Block, Affirm and PayPal are designed to produce growth but not at the expense of profit. Banks operate at low margins, in large part because there’s so much competition for lower-priced loans and better cash-back options. There’s also all the costs associated with underwriting and compliance.
That’s the environment in which fintechs have to operate, though without the costs of running a network of physical branches.
Levchin talks about helping customers spend less, not more. And Block acknowledges the need for hefty investments to reach the company’s desired outcome.
“This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base,” Ahuja said. “We’ve made investments in critical areas like compliance, support and risk. And as we’ve done that, we’ve progressed more of our actives through our identity verification process, which in turn, unlocks greater access to those actives to our full suite of financial tools.”

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