Getting To 40% Solar Energy In The US By 2035 Is A Piece Of Cake, Kind Of
The Biden administration is out with a new memo that anticipates getting to 40% solar energy in the US by 2035. That might not be in time to settle out this whole thing about catastrophic climate change, but it should put the nation on track to meet the President’s ambitious goal for decarbonizing the nation’s power generation profile. Of course, the devil is in the details, and the big question is whether or not certain elected officials will get with the planet-saving program.
Getting To 40% Solar Energy By 2035
The new memo comes from the US Department of Energy under the title, “Investing in a Clean Energy Future: Solar Energy Research, Deployment, and Workforce Priorities,” which hints at the problem. The impacts of catastrophic climate change are already nipping at the heels of the Earth, and it will take a swift, massive redirection of economic assets to turn the ship around.
The memo cautions that keeping the nation’s existing fleet of nuclear power plants afloat is a key piece of the puzzle, alongside wind power, carbon capture, and something called “clean” hydrogen, which is not necessarily the same as green hydrogen (more on that in a sec).
However, the memo underscores the critical importance of the solar energy factor.
“Solar is the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation in the nation – growing 4,000 percent over the past decade – and will play an important role in reaching the administration’s goals,” the Energy Department enthuses.
“Large-scale decarbonization of the electricity sector could move solar from 3 percent of generation today to over 40 percent by 2035,” they add.
And now, for the bad news. The Energy Department cites a yet-to-be published analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which calculates that “solar deployment would need to accelerate to three to four times faster than its current rate by 2030,” if the power sector is to be decarbonized by 2035.
“Meeting these goals will require billions in investment and market opportunities through 2050 across clean energy generation, energy storage, electricity delivery, and operations and maintenance – including in low-income and community solar,” the Energy Department explains.
If you caught that thing about “market opportunities,” that’s where state and federal legislation comes into play. Right now the US is a patchwork of solar-loving and solar un-loving jurisdictions. That will have to change if a swift energy transition is to be orchestrated.
Why 40% Solar Energy By 2035 Is Possible
Despite the challenges, the clean power transition is already inevitable. The massive drought in the western US has exposed the shortcomings of over-reliance on power generation technology that relies on water, including hydropower as well as coal, gas, and nuclear energy. The US grid needs to diversify as well as decarbonize while keeping a close eye on the energy-water nexus.
Solar energy is not necessarily a water-free technology, partly due to the need for keeping solar panels free of dust and debris. However, low-water and waterless cleaning technologies are already at hand.
The Energy Department also cites resiliency as a key factor favoring solar power:
“Solar deployed at scale, when combined with energy storage, can make America’s energy supply more resilient, particularly from power disruptions in the event of manmade and natural threats. Smaller-scale solar, as part of microgrids or hybrid plants, can drive greater local self-sufficiency and community-level resilience. Solar with storage solutions can already provide hours of backup power for individual buildings and, in the future, could provide days of backup power and even seasonal stored power. This storage option can help manage the grid, prevent outages, and even restart the grid after a power outage.”
Potholes On The Road To 40%
As for the details, the road to 40% solar energy by 20305 is not going to be a smooth ride.
For example, the memo advocates for continuing to provide tax credits for clean power investment and production, pointing out that they “have been successful tools in helping to expand solar and wind energy generation” by cutting the cost of investing in clean power.
Unfortunately, the production tax credit is set to die at the end of this year, and the investment tax credit will follow it to the grave shortly thereafter unless certain members of Congress (you know who you are) get their act together.
The memo also brings up the need for new electricity transmission lines to transmit all that new solar energy, which is a super duper touchy subject. Anybody remember Clean Line Energy? The company’s ambitious plans for a new network of clean power lines in the US fell to pieces after a few years due to local opposition and state-based legislative roadblocks.
On the plus side, some of those pieces are still clinging to life. Other signs of new transmission line activity have been springing up in recent years, though some of that is occurring in Texas, which has already sunk its hooks deep into new clean power transmission lines.
The Energy Department memo advocates for tax incentives for transmission projects as well as energy storage, but those pesky opponents could halt or delay projects for years to come.
The Once & Future Energy King Is The US
The memo is on more solid ground in the area of innovation and manufacturing, pointing out that “the solar industry has its roots in America, and a key part of lowering the costs of solar involves investing in technology innovation, manufacturing, and the solar supply chain.”
“U.S. research and development has helped lower manufacturing costs, increase efficiency and performance, and improve reliability of solar technologies,” they add.
US innovators are still driving the global market, even though the nation lost its pole position in the solar manufacturing race long ago. According to the Energy Department, its funding stream has supported almost half of worldwide solar cell efficiency records over the past 35 years, in addition to playing a key role in the global concentrating solar power industry.
Not specifically mentioned in the memo is the agency’s long term love affair with perovskite solar cell technology, but it does reference the related field of thin film solar as a means of re-domesticating the solar cell industry, which is important because that would avoid overseas labor issues as well as supply chain issues.
More Solar Power For Everybody
The memo also points out that the solar market in the US is far from saturated. Aside from the potential for growth in the field of luxury and market-rate housing, there is a vast untapped reservoir of potential growth in the low- and moderate-income areas.
“Low- and moderate- income Americans are less likely to adopt solar due to issues like lack of access to financing, which perpetuates energy inequalities and leads to lower overall levels of solar deployment,” DOE explains, adding that “Access to credit is a key barrier to solar adoption for low- and moderate-income households; almost 90 percent of 2018 solar adopters have either prime or super-prime credit scores.”
Addressing the root causes of structural racism in the US would help solve some of that problem, but in the meantime the Energy Department has been doing some of the heavy lifting by promoting the community solar model.
Community solar projects are designed to provide all ratepayers with access to affordable solar power, regardless of whether or not they rent or own property, or what their tax status is (looking at you, non-profits), and if their property can support its own solar panels.
The Energy Department began a concerted effort to promote community solar during the Obama administration. So far the effort has survived the Trump administration and the COVID-19 pandemic, but most of the activity is currently centered in just four states.
On the plus side, the memo notes that some activity is beginning to bubble up in 35 other states and the District of Columbia, indicating the potential for a renewed push. The memo explains that “green banks and other financing mechanisms that invest in community solar can help families and businesses gain access to zero-carbon solar” would help things along, hinting that state and federal legislators still need to get on board with the plan.
What About Green Hydrogen & Solar Energy?
As for “clean” hydrogen, don’t be fooled. Hydrogen is ubiquitous throughout the industrial economy, from fuel to fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and processed foods. The problem is that almost the entire global supply of hydrogen comes from fossil natural gas, along with a smattering of coal, and no matter which way you turn it, hydrogen is not going away anytime soon.
Fossil energy stakeholders have proposed slapping carbon capture systems onto hydrogen production and calling it “clean,” which would be super funny except when you’re staring into the void of a massive global catastrophe.
The alternative would be to extract hydrogen from other sources, and that is already beginning to happen. For example, interest is coalescing around the use of offshore wind farms to generate electricity for electrolysis systems, which extract hydrogen from water.
A similar feat can be accomplished with onshore wind farms or solar arrays. The missing piece is political will, but keep an eye on that newly recharged bipartisan energy storage caucus in Congress for some movement in that direction.
Follow me on Twitter: @TinaMCasey.
Image (screenshot): Solar energy memo via US Department of Energy.
BYD’s new electric car may be small, but it’s expected to be a big problem for Toyota and other Japanese auto brands.
BYD’s first EV kei car will give Toyota a wake-up call
It’s no secret by now that BYD is best known for its ultra-affordable EVs. It’s cheapest, the Seagull, can be bought for under $10,000 in China.
At the Japan Mobility Show on Friday, the Chinese EV giant will unveil a new type of vehicle. BYD will debut its first electric kei car, or what it calls a “light EV.”
If you’re not familiar, kei cars are one of the most popular choices in Japan as affordable, ultra-compact vehicles perfect for getting around the city. About a third of passenger vehicles sold in Japan last year were kei cars.
BYD is preparing to take its first crack at the market, a rare move for a foreign brand. Domestic automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have historically dominated the Japanese market. Last year, they accounted for over 90% of the 3.7 million new cars sold in the country.
Although it launched its first vehicle in January 2023, BYD has struggled to gain traction in Japan. Since entering the market, the company has only sold about 6,600 electric vehicles. That’s far from what it was expected to sell at this time.
“In terms of our initial expectations, our sales in Japan are missing a zero,” Atsuki Tofukuji, BYD’s head of sales in Japan, told Reuters in an interview.
Although BYD’s electric kei car won’t go on sale until next year, government officials and auto industry leaders are already preparing for a shake-up.
According to Reuters, over half a dozen Japanese government officials and auto industry insiders said the government is still paying close attention to China’s EV leader.
Three of them even admitted BYD represented “a much-needed wake-up call for Japanese automakers that have been focused primarily on hybrid technology,” the report said, like Toyota.
Meanwhile, BYD sees an opportunity as more buyers in Japan shift from gas-powered cars to EVs. The automaker aims to establish its presence in all 47 prefectures in Japan by the end of 2026, Tofukuji said during the interview.
After updating its EV subsidy program last year, Japan now takes into account factors such as the number of charging stations an automaker builds.
The changes make BYD vehicles eligible for a 350,000 yen ($2,300) subsidy, down from up to 850,000 yen they previously qualified for.
Although BYD has yet to reveal prices, it’s expected to use in-house Blade LFP batteries to cut costs. It’s expected to start at around 2.5 million yen ($18,000), putting it on par with the Nissan Sakura, Japan’s best-selling EV last year.
Honda also launched its first electric kei car, the N-ONE, last month. Prices for the Honda N-ONE EV start at 2.7 million yen ($18,300).
BYD will unveil the new EV at the Japan Mobility Show, which opens on Friday, October 30. Press days start on Thursday, October 29. Check back soon for the latest updates.
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Elon Musk and Tesla’s board keep repeating the threat that the CEO will leave if shareholders don’t approve his ridiculous new compensation package.
This is not happening and amounts to nothing more than blackmail.
Musk is not new to blackmailing Tesla shareholders.
It started in 2024, when Musk threatened to stop building AI products at Tesla unless he gained control of 25% of the company’s shares.
That’s even though he had claimed Tesla was now an “AI company” and that AI products were “critical to Tesla’s future”. Furthermore, the fact that he didn’t have close to 25% control was due to his own doing: selling Tesla shares to buy Twitter.
The CEO insists that his request for more shares is not about the money that comes with them but to have “control” over the AI products, especially the robots, that Tesla may eventually produce.
The problem with this narrative is that Musk consistently ignores other ways to increase his stake in Tesla without issuing more stock options, such as stock buybacks.
Lately, and amid an upcoming shareholders’ vote on a new CEO compensation package proposed by Tesla’s board, Musk has updated his threat from “not building AI products at Tesla” to “leaving Tesla”.
The CEO has both made the threat directly and through the company’s board over the last week.
Elon Musk already has full control over Tesla
The board is framing the compensation package, which is worth up to $1 trillion, as a way to keep Musk motivated to work at Tesla.
Meanwhile, Musk says he wants the extra shares to boost his stake and gain more control over what he claims will be a “robot army” Tesla will soon build.
There are issues with both claims.
First off, Musk is already the largest individual shareholder in Tesla and therefore, he benefits the most from Tesla’s share price increase. He should already have plenty of motivations.
Other CEOs, such as Jeff Bezos, notoriously didn’t give themselves any stock options to run their companies for that specific reason.
Others, such as Musk’s close friend Larry Ellison, did stock buybacks at Oracle rather than granting himself stock options to increase his stake in the company, benefiting all shareholders.
Secondly, Musk already has full control over Tesla.
Can anyone name a single instance over the last 20 years of Tesla’s existence where Musk didn’t get his way?
He was even caught lying to shareholders by the SEC, yet instead of being banned from running Tesla, he was allowed to retain his role as CEO and had to step down only as Tesla’s chairman for three years.
Musk installed a puppet chairperson who has been doing precisely what he wants for the last 7 years, including proposing increasingly more ridiculous CEO compensation plans.
Furthermore, Tesla has a strong retail shareholder base that believes everything he says and approves of these ridiculous CEO compensation plans.
There’s literally no evidence that Musk is lacking control over Tesla.
Why Elon Musk won’t leave Tesla
Musk and the board are trying to frame this as a confidence vote because that’s a lot easier to pass than giving up to $1 trillion to the CEO, but I don’t think Musk has any intention of leaving Tesla.
As I wrote in the last section, he already effectively controls Tesla.
If he were to leave, he would likely sell his shares, as he is not known to invest in companies that he is not actively involved in. For example, he invested in Twitter only a few months before he went for a full takeover.
As we have previously highlighted in the Tesla dilemma report, Musk’s leaving would likely result in a short-term crash in Tesla’s share price, as most of the company’s market capitalization currently hinges on Musk’s claims that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving and that its humanoid robot program is worth trillions of dollars.
There’s little to no evidence to support either of those claims. Shareholders believe it because of Musk. If Musk leaves, he will leave behind the belief in those programs.
Therefore, Musk’s stake in Tesla would be worth much less if he left.
Furthermore, the sale of his Tesla shares is likely to put tremendous pressure on the share price, resulting in him getting a lot less for them.
All of these things are self-defeating for Musk.
Electrek’s Take
Musk is bluffing. Plain and simple.
There are a few things that are incredibly wrong about this stock compensation package, and these blackmailing threats are forcing shareholders to ignore them.
First off, shareholders like to focus on Musk only getting paid if Tesla’s stock continues to increase, which is technically true, but not the proper way to look at it.
The way the plan is structured, Musk could get the first few tranches of the compensation plans over the next 10 years, while Tesla returns below the S&P average returns. That makes no sense.
Why give the CEO up to $40 billion, the biggest CEO pay ever, for returning below average returns?
The go-to argument from Elon fans is: you don’t want him to get paid?
The problem with that is Musk is the one who is forcing this all-or-nothing compensation plan. It’s like the board is also having shareholders vote on a more reasonable compensation package.
If you are to believe Musk and the board, you give him the most ridiculous compensation package of all time, or he leaves.
You should be extremely wary of anyone giving you such a choice.
Lastly, I want to highlight that the compensation package’s milestones are poorly designed. Why is delivering unsupervised self-driving as promised and sold to customers for almost a decade not in the milestones?
Instead, there are things like “10 million active Full Self-Driving”, which could be achieved without delivering the promised unsupervised self-driving, and “1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation”, which has the same issue, considering Tesla counts its ride-hailing service on FSD as “robotaxis”.
The compensation package is designed to be abused and benefit Musk way more than the shareholders.
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Environment
Slate confirms Tesla Supercharger access and unique approach to service and installations
Young American EV brand Slate hit the public with not one, but two, press announcements this morning. First, Slate confirmed its flagship vehicle will utilize the North American Charging Standard (NACS), enabling access to the Tesla Supercharger network. Speaking of networks, the company has also secured a national service partner for its vehicles after they reach customers.
Ever since Slate popped up in the internet ether last spring, we’ve been excited to report any and all updates on the American EV startup. As you may recall, Slate approach to EVs revolves around “Blank Slate” design.
Its flagship product is a bare-bones all-electric pickup, with the option for customers to add over 100 accessories, as well as a five-seat SUV conversion kit. In late August, Slate opened the doors of its future home to EV production – repurposing a paper plant in Warsaw, Indiana.
It is there that Slate targets a start of vehicle production in Q4 2026, ahead of initial customer deliveries. While that milestone still remains over a year away, Slate has shared some tidbits that those would-be customers can look forward to, including confirmation of the NACS charging port.
Slate confirms Tesla Supercharging with NACS
Slate’s comms team issued two separate press releases this morning, confirming that its flagship model will offer access to Tesla’s Supercharger network via the NACS port, which has become the widely accepted standard among nearly all automakers.
What’s even more exciting is that Slate’s news extends beyond NACS-enabled Tesla charging, as it has secured an OEM partnership with RepairPal, an online search tool that helps you find certified service and repair centers near you. If it wasn’t clear enough when Slate debuted, promising an ultra-affordable “no frills” electric pickup, the American startup is trying to disrupt the EV industry.
Its partnership with RepairPal is another example of this strategy, offering future owners the freedom to have their Slate EV serviced or customized wherever they’d like, as long as it’s RepairPal certified. Per the release:
DIY and open source are ingrained in Slate’s DNA. Slate believes that customers deserve the power to customize, accessorize, and repair their own vehicles, backed by the support of RepairPal’s network of highly skilled service technicians.
Slate said that RepairPal-certified technicians will be trained in accessory installation, in case you’re not a DIYer, and select shops will be trained in Slate-specific procedures, enabling them to perform high-voltage service. Slate’s chief commercial officer, Jeremy Snyder, elaborated:
Slate’s OEM partnership with RepairPal’s nationwide network of service centers will give Slate customers peace of mind, while empowering independent service shops to provide accessorization and service
Last May, a representative for Slate shared that the company had already secured over 100,000 reservations, which required a $50 refundable deposit. A source familiar with the matter wouldn’t give Electrek a concrete reservation tally, but said it is now “well over 100,000.”
Design your own Slate EV here!
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