Soaring demand for the world’s least-liked commodity sees thermal coal prices jump 106% this year

Published

3 years ago

August 19, 2021

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A freight train transports coal from the Gunnedah Coal Handling and Prepararation Plant, operated by Whitehaven Coal Ltd., in Gunnedah, New South Wales, Australia, on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020.

David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least liked commodity.

Australian thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has climbed 106% this year to more than $166 per metric ton, according to the latest weekly assessment by commodity price provider Argus.

The Newcastle weekly index, which stood at a 2020 low of $46.18 in early September, now appears to be closing in on an all-time high of $195.20 from July 2008. Its South African equivalent, the Richards Bay index, ended the week through to Aug. 13 at $137.06 per metric ton, up more than 55% this year.

To put thermal coal’s remarkable rally into some context, international benchmark Brent crude is one of few assets to have recorded comparable gains this year. The oil contract is up 33% year-to-date.

The resurgence of thermal coal, which is burned to generate electricity, raises serious questions about the so-called “energy transition.” To be sure, coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel in terms of emissions and therefore the most important target for replacement in the pivot to renewable alternatives.

Yet, as policymakers and business leaders repeatedly tout their commitment to the demands of the deepening climate emergency, many still rely on fossil fuels to keep pace with rising power demand.

It comes shortly after the world’s leading climate scientists delivered their starkest warning yet about the speed and scale of the climate crisis. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s landmark report, published Aug. 9, warned a key temperature limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius could be broken in just over a decade without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres, described the report’s findings as a “code red for humanity,” adding that it “must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels before they destroy our planet.”

Earlier this year, Guterres pushed for all governments, private companies and local authorities to “end the deadly addiction to coal” by scrapping all future global projects. The move to phase out coal from the electricity sector was “the single most important step” to align with the 1.5-degree goal of the Paris Agreement, he said.

Outlook for thermal coal prices

Yulia Buchneva, director in natural resources at Fitch Ratings, told CNBC that thermal coal remains a key global energy source, noting the commodity still has a more than 35% share in global power generation.

“We expect that the share of coal in energy generation will decline driven by the energy transition agenda, however this will have a rather longer-term impact on the market. In the medium-term demand for coal in emerging markets with less strict environmental agenda, in particular in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, where coal-fired power dominates generation, is expected to rise,” Buchneva said.

By comparison, Buchneva said that since the U.S. and EU account for only 10% of worldwide demand for coal, an expected contraction in these regions would have a limited impact on the global market.

When asked whether thermal coal prices could push even higher in the coming months, Buchneva replied: “The current high thermal coal prices have decoupled from costs and are therefore not sustainable. We expect that prices will normalize during the remainder of the year.”

Fitch Ratings assumes the price of high energy Australia coal will decline toward $81.

A bucket-wheel reclaimer stands next to a pile of coal at the Port of Newcastle in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia, on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.

David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Energy analysts cited a variety of reasons for thermal coal’s breakneck rally. These included rebounding power demand in China, Beijing’s informal ban on coal imports from Australia, supply disruptions in Australia, South Africa and Colombia, and rising global gas prices.

For the latter, analysts at Argus said Europe had incurred unseasonably low gas storages, weak liquified natural gas imports and modest pipeline imports from Russia. It has coincided with gas prices rising more sharply than coal and thus led to an increased incentive to burn coal at the expense of gas for power generation.

“Coal as an expensive substitute, especially in Europe given the need to buy pollution offsets via emission futures, is likely to continue into the winter period,” Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank, told CNBC via email.

“This in response to low gas stock levels both in the US and Europe following a high demand season driven by extreme heat and economic activity,” he continued. “All in all, coal is in demand despite raised focus on climate change.”

Hansen said this was simply due to the lack of supplies from coal’s biggest competitor: natural gas.

Financing coal projects to become more difficult

“I’m reluctant to get into how this is going to continue to play out over the next few months. I think things are fairly fluid in terms of the impact of the virus on various economies and it doesn’t take much of a slowdown for things to really start impacting a commodity like coal,” Seth Feaster, energy data analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, told CNBC via telephone.

“One thing I can say is that prices have been very volatile. And from a U.S. perspective, when coal companies talk about exports being their savior, we find that pretty suspect because volatility makes it very difficult for coal companies to have any kind of long-term plan around thermal coal exports.”

Smoke and steam rises from the Bayswater coal-powered thermal power station located near the central New South Wales town of Muswellbrook, New South Wales, in Australia.

David Gray | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Feaster said that while some countries appeared hesitant to move away from coal, it is becoming “abundantly clear” that financing for coal projects is drying up. “It is going to be very difficult going forward to fund any kind of new power projects for coal,” he continued.

“I think that that’s really going to become a pariah around the world for anybody to finance coal projects. It is going to become more expensive and more difficult.”

Environment

Toyota to buy clean power from a $1.1 billion solar farm in Texas

Published

14 hours ago

November 1, 2024

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Toyota to buy clean power from a .1 billion solar farm in Texas

solar farm — https://unsplash.com/photos/solar-panels-on-green-field-513dBrMJ_5w

Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, just announced it’s moving forward with an 815-megawatt (MW) solar project called Sequoia in Texas. When it’s done, it’ll be one of the largest solar farms in North America. The project’s price tag is a hefty $1.1 billion.

Enbridge’s Sequoia, around 150 miles west of Dallas, has already landed long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with AT&T and Toyota, ensuring most of its output is sold for years to come. This deal was highlighted in Enbridge’s third-quarter report on Friday.

Sequoia will be built in two phases, with power expected to start flowing in 2025 and 2026. Enbridge says it’s taken steps to reduce risks by securing equipment and procurement contracts in advance. Permits and purchase orders are also locked down.

Toyota’s PPA with Enbridge’s Texas solar project is part of Toyota’s broader push toward sustainability, as the automaker aims to achieve net zero by 2035 and match 45% of its purchased power with renewable electricity by 2026 as it still clings to its “diverse powertrain strategy.”

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Environment

NIO’s EV sales top 20,000 for the sixth straight month as new low-cost SUV shows promise

Published

15 hours ago

November 1, 2024

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NIO's EV sales top 20,000 for the sixth straight month as new low-cost SUV shows promise

With its new electric SUV rolling out, NIO’s (NIO) sales topped the 20,000 mark again in Oct, its sixth straight month hitting the milestone.

NIO sold 20,976 vehicles last month, up 30.5% from October 2023. The NIO brand sold 16,657 vehicles, while its new “family-oriented smart vehicle brand,” Onvo, contributed 4,319 in its first full sales month.

After launching its new mid-size Onvo L60 electric SUV in September, NIO said production and deliveries are steadily ramping up.

At the end of October, NIO’s Onvo had 166 Centers and Spaces throughout 60 cities. Onvo plans to continue expanding its network to drive future growth.

NIO’s new electric SUV starts at around $21,200 (149,900) and is a direct rival to Tesla’s Model Y. The base $21K model is if you rent the battery. Even with the battery included, Onvo L60 prices still start at under $30,000 (206,900 yuan), with a CLTC range of up to 341 miles (555 km). That’s still less than the Model Y.

Tesla’s Model Y RWD starts at around $35,000 (249,900 yuan) with 344 mi (554 km) CLTC range in China.

NIO’s new Onvo brand drives higher Oct sales

NIO has often compared its new electric SUV to the Model Y, claiming it’s superior in many ways. The L60 has better consumption at 12.1 kWh/100km compared to the Model Y at 12.5 kWh/100km).

With a longer wheelbase (2,950 mm vs 2,890 mm), NIO’s electric SUV also provides slightly more interior space.

Despite the L60’s success so far, NIO believes its second Onvo model will be an even bigger hit. It could be a potential game-changer.

“If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product,” NIO’s CEO William Li told CnEVPost after launching the L60. Onvo will launch a new EV every year. Following the L60, Onvo will launch a new mid-to-large-size electric SUV next year.

NIO’s leader claims the new model will be revolutionary. According to Li, it will offer even more surprises than the L60. Deliveries are planned to begin in Q3 2025.

NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y trims	Range (CLTC)	Starting Price
NIO Onvo L60 (Battery rental)	555 km (341 mi) 730 km (454 mi)	149,900 yuan ($21,200)
NIO Onvo L60 (60 kWh)	555 km (341 mi)	206,900 yuan ($29,300)
NIO Onvo L60 (85 kWh)	730 km (454 mi)	235,900 yuan ($33,400)
NIO Onvo L60 (150 kWh)	+1,000 km (+621 mi)	TBD
Tesla Model Y RWD	554 km (344 mi)	249,900 yuan ($34,600)
Tesla Model Y AWD Long Range	688 km (427 mi)	290,900 yuan ($40,300)
Tesla Model Y AWD Performance	615 km (382 mi)	354,900 yuan ($49,100)

NIO Onvo L60 compared to Tesla Model Y prices and range in China

Local reports suggest a six-or seven-seat electric SUV could hit the market even sooner. With rumors of a launch around Q1 2025, deliveries could happen as soon as May 2025.

According to sources close to the matter, the L60 is just a “stepping stone” with even more exciting EVs on the way. The source claimed the new six-seat option will start at around $42,100 (300,000 yuan).

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Velotric Ebikes’ big early-bird Black Friday discounts are here!

Published

16 hours ago

November 1, 2024

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Velotric Ebikes' big early-bird Black Friday discounts are here!

Velotric Ebikes are designed by some of the most brilliant minds in the business. And now, you have the opportunity to own one (or two!) of these high-performance, elegant, reliable rides. You won’t want to miss these fantastic early-bird Black Friday deals running from November 1-14, and, also get a sneak peek at special offers that start on November 8.

Read on to find the right model for you and learn how you can donate $5 to get up to $550 off a superb Velotric electric bike.

Velotric Black Friday deals – give to get back

If you donate $5 to either the Clean Air Task Force or the Solutions Project at checkout, you’ll unlock some fantastic discounts off Velotric e-bikes:

Clean Air Task Force: Fighting air pollution for healthier communities
The Solutions Project: Advocating for 100% renewable energy in frontline communities

Plus, Velotric is giving Electrek readers an exclusive discount: Enter the code Electrek20 at checkout to get an additional $20 OFF!

Velotric Discover 2 Ebike

The Velotric Discover 2, Velotric’s most comfortable e-bike, now has even more power, with a 750W high-performance motor and 75 Nm of torque. The 48V 706 Wh battery, providing up to 75 miles per charge, maximizes your range.

You can ride in comfort, as the frame design supports an upright posture; plus, it’s got a 200mm wide saddle and ergonomic grips, reducing long-ride strain. Enjoy a premium, versatile ride that turns every journey into a joyride.

Discover 2 – Save up to $200

Velotric Summit 1 Ebike

If you want both an everyday bike and a trekking bike, then this is the one for you. The customizable Velotric Summit 1 Ebike is a hybrid e-bike featuring a 750W motor with 90 Nm of torque that delivers exceptional power for both city streets and offroad terrain, and the intuitive throttle means you can access that power effortlessly. When you’re off-road, the 120mm travel suspension absorbs the impacts, resulting in a smoother ride. The 48V, 705.6Wh battery provides up to 70 miles of charge.

Plus, it features a vibrant multifunctional screen with three configurations and use the Velotric app to monitor mileage and access real-time bike data.

Summit 1 – Save up to $200

Velotric Nomad 1 Plus Ebike

The Nomad 1 Plus Ebike‘s 750W motor and 75 Nm torque allow you to conquer just about any terrain. The 691Wh battery keeps you on the move for up to 55 miles, an 80mm suspension fork smooths your ride, and powerful waterproof hydraulic brakes give you full control.

The Nomad 1 Plus features an adjustable stem, a brighter front light, and max speed adjustable range is 12-28 mph.

Nomad 1 Plus – save up to $550

Velotric Fold 1 Ebike

The Velotric Fold 1 Ebike becomes compact in just three quick moves, but don’t mistake it for simple. The high-performance 750W motor and generates 70 Nm torque, beating most of the competition for acceleration and climbing ability. The 608Wh battery will give you up to 55 miles of range, its step-through design is 20% lower than the competition, and when you’re done zipping around town or commuting, you can pop it into a car trunk or even a closet.

Plus, the Fold 1 is compatible with a wide range of cool accessories so you can customize it to meet your needs.

Fold 1 – Save up to $350

Velotric T1 ST Plus Ebike

The Velotric T1 ST Plus Ebike is an ultra-compact, 39-pound city-and-gravel bike that’s designed for riders with an active lifestyle. But don’t be fooled by its sleek look because it’s very well-equipped: The five pedal-assist-level T1 ST has a 70-mile range and three riding modes, and the peak 600W motor generates 40Nm of torque. It also comes with Apple Find My integration.

T1 ST Plus – Save up to $400

Velotric Discover 1 Plus Ebike

The Velotric Discover 1 Plus Ebike is a fantastic commuter bike that’s designed for comfort. (Plus, it’s kinda fun that it comes in five color choices.) If your commuting route is a bit more challenging, then the Discover 1 Plus might be the right fit for you. It features a rear light with braking high-beam, a 60 Lux front light, and double hydraulic disc brakes for extra safety. Plus, Velotric rigorously tests its frames 150,000 times under tough conditions for quality assurance.

This commuter e-bike that rides like a cruiser has a pedal assist range of 65 miles and throttle range of 58 miles on a 900W peak motor that generates 65 Nm of torque.

Discover 1 Plus – Save up to $550

Velotric Go 1 Ebike

Velotric’s Go 1 Ebike is small but mighty – it can carry up to 440 pounds comfortably. This ride has hydraulic suspension and a plush saddle, and it can be kitted out with a wide range of accessories, making it a versatile form of transport for everything from a fun day out to carting groceries across town.

It’s powered by Velotric’s proprietary Velopower H50 Drive System, which provides a range of up to 55 miles on pedal assist up to 25 mph (unlocked) with a peak 900W motor.

Go 1 – Save up to $400*

Regular price: $1,399 ~~$1,699~~
Promotion: Get $100 off total saving $400
Discounted price: $1,299
Get 3 accessories & unlock 30% off on selected accessories

*Not included in the early-bird Black Friday deal, this deal runs from November 8-28 only

Velotric Packer 1 Ebike

From kids to cargo, the Velotric Packer 1 Ebike was designed to haul it all! The Packer 1 features Velotric’s proprietary Velopower H75 Drive System, which provides a range of up to 52 miles on pedal assist up to 25 mph (unlocked) with a 750W motor.

It can carry up to 440 pounds and has a 176-pound rear cargo carry capacity, plus hydraulic suspension with 80 mm of travel for a smooth ride. If you’re running a child to school every day, this would be a fantastic choice. Be sure to check out all the great accessories.

Packer 1 – Save up to $600