A freight train transports coal from the Gunnedah Coal Handling and Prepararation Plant, operated by Whitehaven Coal Ltd., in Gunnedah, New South Wales, Australia, on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020.
David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least liked commodity.
Australian thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has climbed 106% this year to more than $166 per metric ton, according to the latest weekly assessment by commodity price provider Argus.
The Newcastle weekly index, which stood at a 2020 low of $46.18 in early September, now appears to be closing in on an all-time high of $195.20 from July 2008. Its South African equivalent, the Richards Bay index, ended the week through to Aug. 13 at $137.06 per metric ton, up more than 55% this year.
To put thermal coal’s remarkable rally into some context, international benchmark Brent crude is one of few assets to have recorded comparable gains this year. The oil contract is up 33% year-to-date.
The resurgence of thermal coal, which is burned to generate electricity, raises serious questions about the so-called “energy transition.” To be sure, coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel in terms of emissions and therefore the most important target for replacement in the pivot to renewable alternatives.
Yet, as policymakers and business leaders repeatedly tout their commitment to the demands of the deepening climate emergency, many still rely on fossil fuels to keep pace with rising power demand.
It comes shortly after the world’s leading climate scientists delivered their starkest warning yet about the speed and scale of the climate crisis. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s landmark report, published Aug. 9, warned a key temperature limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius could be broken in just over a decade without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres, described the report’s findings as a “code red for humanity,” adding that it “must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels before they destroy our planet.”
Earlier this year, Guterres pushed for all governments, private companies and local authorities to “end the deadly addiction to coal” by scrapping all future global projects. The move to phase out coal from the electricity sector was “the single most important step” to align with the 1.5-degree goal of the Paris Agreement, he said.
Outlook for thermal coal prices
Yulia Buchneva, director in natural resources at Fitch Ratings, told CNBC that thermal coal remains a key global energy source, noting the commodity still has a more than 35% share in global power generation.
“We expect that the share of coal in energy generation will decline driven by the energy transition agenda, however this will have a rather longer-term impact on the market. In the medium-term demand for coal in emerging markets with less strict environmental agenda, in particular in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, where coal-fired power dominates generation, is expected to rise,” Buchneva said.
By comparison, Buchneva said that since the U.S. and EU account for only 10% of worldwide demand for coal, an expected contraction in these regions would have a limited impact on the global market.
When asked whether thermal coal prices could push even higher in the coming months, Buchneva replied: “The current high thermal coal prices have decoupled from costs and are therefore not sustainable. We expect that prices will normalize during the remainder of the year.”
Fitch Ratings assumes the price of high energy Australia coal will decline toward $81.
A bucket-wheel reclaimer stands next to a pile of coal at the Port of Newcastle in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia, on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.
David Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Energy analysts cited a variety of reasons for thermal coal’s breakneck rally. These included rebounding power demand in China, Beijing’s informal ban on coal imports from Australia, supply disruptions in Australia, South Africa and Colombia, and rising global gas prices.
For the latter, analysts at Argus said Europe had incurred unseasonably low gas storages, weak liquified natural gas imports and modest pipeline imports from Russia. It has coincided with gas prices rising more sharply than coal and thus led to an increased incentive to burn coal at the expense of gas for power generation.
“Coal as an expensive substitute, especially in Europe given the need to buy pollution offsets via emission futures, is likely to continue into the winter period,” Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank, told CNBC via email.
“This in response to low gas stock levels both in the US and Europe following a high demand season driven by extreme heat and economic activity,” he continued. “All in all, coal is in demand despite raised focus on climate change.”
Hansen said this was simply due to the lack of supplies from coal’s biggest competitor: natural gas.
Financing coal projects to become more difficult
“I’m reluctant to get into how this is going to continue to play out over the next few months. I think things are fairly fluid in terms of the impact of the virus on various economies and it doesn’t take much of a slowdown for things to really start impacting a commodity like coal,” Seth Feaster, energy data analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, told CNBC via telephone.
“One thing I can say is that prices have been very volatile. And from a U.S. perspective, when coal companies talk about exports being their savior, we find that pretty suspect because volatility makes it very difficult for coal companies to have any kind of long-term plan around thermal coal exports.”
Smoke and steam rises from the Bayswater coal-powered thermal power station located near the central New South Wales town of Muswellbrook, New South Wales, in Australia.
David Gray | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Feaster said that while some countries appeared hesitant to move away from coal, it is becoming “abundantly clear” that financing for coal projects is drying up. “It is going to be very difficult going forward to fund any kind of new power projects for coal,” he continued.
“I think that that’s really going to become a pariah around the world for anybody to finance coal projects. It is going to become more expensive and more difficult.”
Aptera has publicly unveiled the production-intent version of its long-awaited solar EV, which it says will start deliveries by the end of this year.
Update: We swung by the booth a took a few pictures of Aptera’s production-intent vehicle chassis, see below.
Aptera has a long history in the automotive space, dating all the way back to its original founding in 2006 by co-founders Steve Fambro and Chris Anthony. It has had the same basic teardrop design all along, but at the time it was going to be fueled by a small gas engine, promising 330 miles per gallon.
But the last iteration of Aptera hit many bumps in the road, and went defunct in 2011, having to return thousands of customer deposits.
Then, in 2019, the company was relaunched, by the same original founders as before. But this time, it had a solar-powered electric car – which, frankly, makes a lot more sense for a futuristic vehicle than a gas engine does.
That’s the iteration we’re on now, and six years later – and nearly 20 years after the company’s first founding – Aptera says it’s finally ready to produce its solar EV.
It’s showing off its production-intent chassis at the Consumer Electronics Show this week, offering the public a chance to see this vehicle which it says will go into production and delivery this year. Its booth is in the central plaza, outdoors in the sun – where a solar EV belongs.
The company has been showing off its progress towards production intent over the course of the last years, doing wind tunnel testing of what it claims will be one of the lowest-drag vehicles ever (with a previously-claimed .13 Cd), receiving carbon bodies in August and completing its first low-speed drive in October.
Now the car is out and about driving normally at CES (and Aptera is offering media ride-alongs, which we’ll hopefully get a chance to fit in). Aptera says that it drove the car for around 20 miles yesterday, and it ended the day with more charge than it started due to its extensive solar panels, which Aptera is showing off in production-intent form for the first time.
The panels cover the vehicle’s hood, dash, roof and hatch and Aptera says they can generate up to 40 miles of free driving per days, powered by sunlight. In sunny climates, this will give owners over 10,000 miles per year of solar-powered driving.
On a sunny Las Vegas winter day, as it was for the reveal, the solar panels should be working quite nicely (though they would work even better if it weren’t one of the shortest days of the year).
The unveil included a short livestream at Aptera’s outdoor booth in the Central Plaza, which you can watch below:
The livestream included a short speech by co-CEO Chris Anthony and a quick vehicle walkaround, including showing off the vehicle’s NACS port, which Aptera was the first to announce adoption of way back in 2022.
Aptera says it has another announcement coming soon regarding the vehicle’s battery pack, and that its anticipating offering track time in the car in a few months for investors (the company is funding itself through a crowdfunding campaign through which it has raised $135 million of equity).
Previously, Aptera said the vehicle would have multiple battery options, with 250, 400, and even 1,000-mile (!) battery packs (which this author thinks is unrealistically excessive, and frankly a sign for pause). But Aptera has backed off from talking much about its previous 1,000-mile target, and all we heard about during this reveal is the 400-mile, 45kWh pack that will be included on the company’s $40,000 launch edition vehicle (which will have limited options otherwise).
Aptera says that it anticipates first deliveries of its launch edition by the end of this year – a timeline which the company has stated before, but which we wouldn’t be surprised to see slip. Nevertheless, that’s the messaging.
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Who said minivans weren’t cool? Hyundai’s first electric minivan (which could double as a camper van) was spotted in public without camouflage, giving us a better look at what to expect. Check out the upcoming EV below.
When will Hyundai’s first electric minivan launch?
Hyundai is preparing to launch its first all-electric minivan this year. The Staria is the electric successor to the Starex, Hyundai’s multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) introduced in 2021.
Last March, Hyundai revealed its new ST1 electric business van platform, based on the Staria powertrain. The ST1 is Hyundai’s first commercial EV with configurations including a refrigerated van and chassis cab. Meanwhile, the minivan will get its own model in 2025.
According to Korea’s Newsis, Hyundai will convert one of its production lines at its Ulsan Plant 4 on January 25, 2025, for the Staria electric.
Ahead of its official debut, we are already getting a look at Hyundai’s first electric minivan undisguised. The Staria EV was spotted by the online community “Family Staria” in a Korean parking lot without camouflage.
You can see that the EV model has a design similar to that of Hyundai’s Staria Lounge, which transforms from a seven- or nine-seat limousine into a full-fledged camper van.
Outside of the grille, which is now closed and includes a charging port, the electric minivan is a near replica of the premium Staria Lounge.
Hyundai Staria Lounge(Source: Hyundai)
Given it’s still a test vehicle, the design could change once finalized. A tag on the windshield reads “Vehicle for UT Evaluation of the Road Vulnerable,” suggesting it has a few more tests before being released to the general public.
The Staria electric is expected to feature Hyundai’s latest 84 kWh batteries. Local reports suggest it will be able to handle over 10% more capacity than the ST1.
Hyundai Staria Lounge Camper Van (Source: Hyundai)
Hyundai’s first electric van is expected to launch in overseas markets. According to The Korean Economic Daily, Hyundai plans to start production of the Staria EV in Europe in the first half of 2026. European-made models will be sold locally and overseas, such as in Australia and Thailand.
Will Hyundai launch a camper van version like the Staria Lounge? More info will likely be released soon with an official launch expected this year. Stay tuned for updates.
Elon Musk is claiming that Tesla has started doing ‘unsupervised self-driving trials internally’. He made the claim while playing video games, and It should be taken with a grain, or pound, of salt.
Yesterday afternoon, on a Tuesday, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and defacto in charge of 6 companies and a government department, was playing video games and streaming on X for more than an hour.
During the stream, fans were asking him questions and one of them was about Tesla’s self-driving effort.
Musk said:
Tesla Full Self-Driving unsupervised, maybe I’ll mention, we are going to [correct himself], we actually are doing trials of that with Tesla employees already and we expect to have that in commercial service sometime this year, which I mentioned at the last earnings call.
There are two things that Musk said at the last earnings call. He did indeed claim that Tesla would launch its “unsupervised Full Self-Driving” capability in California and Texas around Q2 2025.
He also said that Tesla started testing its robotaxi ride-hailing app with employees in the Bay Area:
We have for Tesla employees in the Bay Area. We already are offering ride-hailing capabilities. So, you can actually — with the development app, you can request a ride, and it will take you anywhere in the Bay Area.
However, he also said that Tesla had “safety drivers” behind the wheel for this test program, which means that it is no more than its current “Supervised Full Self-Driving,” a level 2 driver assist system. It is mainly to test the ridesharing features of the app rather than a different version of its self-driving system.
That makes sense, considering that Tesla would need a permit to operate a self-driving vehicle in California, even as part of a test program, and we haven’t found Tesla’s permit application yet
With this new comment, Musk clearly said “unsupervised” self-driving.
Electrek’s Take
I wouldn’t be shocked if Elon misspoke here while playing video games or he is plain confused about the situation.
Considering Tesla doesn’t have any permit to operate driverless vehicles, if it is operating a “unsupervised self-driving trials internally”, it has to be doing it on private property, which could be no more than the Cybercabs we have seen driving around Gigafactory Texas.
It’s not much different than Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ event, which was purposely located at Warner Bros’ studio lot, which are private roads.
I seriously doubt that Tesla is currently operating unsupervised self-driving vehicles on public roads.
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