During the last 17 months we have become almost inured to the terrifying increases in government borrowing incurred in grappling with the pandemic.
The government borrowed £303bn during the 2020-21 financial year, a peacetime record, equivalent to 14.5% of UK GDP.
Yet something interesting has been happening during the current financial year.
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Tax burden to reach highest level since 1960s
In each of the first four months government borrowing, while still high, has come in significantly below the levels forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The latest figures for the public sector finances, published today, revealed that the government borrowed £10.4bn in July.
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Make no mistake, this is still a terrifyingly high number, equivalent to borrowing of nearly £233,000 every minute.
It was, however, £10.1bn less than in July last year – and also significantly lower than the £11.8bn that City economists had been expecting.
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The figure means that, during the first four months of the current financial year, the government borrowed £78bn – some £26bn less than the OBR had been forecasting at this stage.
There are a couple of key points to make about the numbers.
Image: July’s figures are normally boosted by self-assessed tax returns
First of all, July is usually a strong month for tax receipts and therefore the public finances, because it is one of two months in the year – the other is January – in which the deadline falls due for payments by those completing self-assessed tax returns.
It was not unusual, pre-pandemic, for the government to record a surplus during July.
That appears to have been a key factor this month.
The government enjoyed tax receipts of £70bn during July – up £9.5bn on the same month last year.
Behind that was a £3.7bn improvement in self-assessed tax receipts on the same month last year, when HMRC allowed tax payments to be deferred, chiefly to support the self-employed.
But it probably also reflects that the economy is starting to recover.
VAT receipts were up by £1.2bn on July last year, fuel duty was up by £400m – partly reflecting higher petrol and diesel prices – and regular income tax payments were up by £800m.
There was also a big jump in stamp duty receipts, which at £1.4bn were double the level they were in July last year, reflecting a rush to beat the deadline for the end of the temporary £500,000 nil-rate band.
Image: Fuel duty was up by £400m
Receipts from corporation tax, which is levied on company profits, also came in higher than the OBR had been expecting.
Secondly, government spending was lower, with the government shelling out £79.8bn during the month.
That was down £2.9bn on July last year and probably reflects that, not only did the government begin to taper away its furlough scheme, but also that there were fewer workers participating in the scheme.
Government spending on the furlough scheme during July was down £4.2bn on the same month last year while spending on the equivalent scheme for the self-employed was down £200m.
Worryingly, though, interest payments on the national debt came in at £3.4bn during the month – up £1.1bn on July last year.
As for the national debt, that stood at £2.216trn at the end of July, equivalent to 98.8% of GDP, which the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said was the highest it has been since March 1962.
The figures were welcomed by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, who has been spelling out the need to restore order to the public finances.
He said: “Our recovery from the pandemic is well under way, boosted by the huge amount of support government has provided.
Image: A rise in stamp duty receipts reflected a rush to complete deals before the winding down of a stamp duty holiday
“But the last 18 months have had a huge impact on our economy and public finances, and many risks remain.
“We’re committed to keeping the public finances on a sustainable footing, which is why at the budget in March I set out the steps we are taking to keep debt under control in the years to come.”
That is not to say the chancellor faces anything other than a major challenge on that front.
Isabel Stockton, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies said: “Even if, as recent revisions to economic forecasts suggest, some of this improvement persists the coming Spending Review will still require some very difficult decisions and, most likely, more generous spending totals than currently pencilled in by the chancellor given the myriad pressures on public services and the benefit system following the pandemic.”
That is why the government sought to cut its overseas aid budget by £4bn – but that is a comparatively small sum in the context of overall government finances.
Elsewhere the government has committed to raise public spending by £55bn this year to help clear backlogs in the NHS and in the courts system.
Most economists believe the ultimate bill will be higher.
That is why the chancellor is dropping heavy hints that a rise in state pensions this year under the “triple lock” – whereby the benefit increases by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or average earnings – is not going to happen.
Image: The government has committed to spending increases to clear NHS backlogs
Were the triple lock to apply, the state pension will have to match the rise in average earnings for May to July which, if as expected comes in at about 8% could cost the Treasury an extra £7bn a year.
Accordingly, Mr Sunak is arguing the lock should not apply.
He can reasonably point out that average earnings growth has been flattered by the fact that, a year ago, it was depressed by pay cuts, mass redundancies and the furlough scheme.
Yet the decision will be politically fraught.
The triple lock was a Conservative manifesto pledge and opinion polls suggest the public opposes scrapping it, even younger voters, despite the intergenerational unfairness implicit in the policy.
Mr Sunak is due already to announce the government’s three year Spending Review this autumn but there is also currently speculation in Westminster about the timing of the next budget.
Some Treasury officials would rather, it is said, have an early budget to nail down the government’s spending and taxation plans for the coming year in order to prevent the prime minister from making outlandish spending commitments ahead of the COP26 summit in November.
Others would prefer to postpone the budget until spring next year so the chancellor can better assess the strength of the recovery and the lasting damage done to the economy by the pandemic.
Image: It is arguably the most challenging situation any chancellor has faced since, Labour’s Denis Healey in 1976
That happened last time when the budget was pushed back from autumn last year to March this year.
Making the chancellor’s job much harder would be an earlier than expected rise in interest rates.
This is due to the way the Bank of England’s asset purchase programme – quantitative easing in the jargon – works.
When the Bank buys a government bond, it credits the account of the seller, who effectively receives a deposit at the Bank.
These are known as “reserves” and the Bank pays interest on those reserves at Bank rate – currently 0.1%.
It means that the cost of QE rises if interest rates do.
All of this adds up to the most challenging situation any chancellor has faced since, arguably, Labour’s Denis Healey was forced in 1976 to seek a bail-out from the International Monetary Fund and possibly since the war.
A larger than expected hike in the energy price cap from October is largely down to higher costs being imposed by the government.
The typical sum households face paying for gas and electricity when using direct debit is to rise by 2% – or £2.93 per month – to £1,755, the energy watchdog Ofgem announced.
The latest bill settlement, covering the final quarter of the year until the next price review takes effect from January, will affect around 20 million households.
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Bills must rise to pay for energy transition
The discount is set to add £15 to the average annual bill.
It will provide £150 in support to 2.7 million extra people this year, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to six million.
The balance is made up from money needed to upgrade the power network.
Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While there is still more to do, we are seeing signs of a healthier market. There are more people on fixed tariffs saving themselves money, switching is rising as options for consumers increase, and we’ve seen increases in customer satisfaction, alongside a reduction in complaints.
“While today’s change is below inflation, we know customers might not be feeling it in their pockets. There are things you can do though – consider a fixed tariff as this could save more than £200 against the new cap. Paying by direct debit or smart pay as you go could also save you money.
“In the longer term, we will continue to see fluctuations in our energy prices until we are insulated from volatile international gas markets. That’s why we continue to work with government and the sector to diversify our energy mix to reduce the reliance on markets we do not control.”
The looming price cap lift will leave bills around the same sort of level they were in October last year but it will take hold at a time when overall inflation is higher.
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Inflation has gone up again – this explains why
Food price increases, also partly blamed on government measures such as the national insurance contributions hike imposed on employers, have led the main consumer prices index to a current level of 3.8%.
It is predicted to rise to at least 4% in the coming months, further squeezing household budgets.
Ministers argue that efforts to make the UK less reliant on natural gas, through investment in renewable power sources, will help bring down bills in future.
Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We know that any price rise is a concern for families. Wholesale gas prices remain 75% above their levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. That is the fossil fuel penalty being paid by families, businesses and our economy.
“That is why the only answer for Britain is this government’s mission to get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices and onto clean, homegrown power we control, to bring down bills for good.
“At the same time, we are determined to take urgent action to support vulnerable families this winter. That includes expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million more households and stepping up our overhaul of the energy system to increase protections for customers.”
The small increase in domestic energy bills announced today confirms that prices have stabilised since the ruinous spikes that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but remain 40% higher than before the war – around 20% in real terms – with little chance of falling in the medium-term.
Any increase in the annual cost of gas and electricity is unwelcome. But, at 2%, it is so marginal that in practice many consumers will not notice it unless they pay close attention to their consumption.
Regulator Ofgem uses a notional figure for “typical” annual consumption of gas and electricity to capture the impact of price change, which shows a £34 increase to £1,755.
At less than £3 a month it’s a small increase that could be wiped out by a warm week in October, doubled by an early cold snap, and only applies to those households that pay a variable rate for their power.
That number is declining as 37% of customers now take advantage of cheaper fixed rate deals that have returned to the market, as well as direct debit payments, options often not available to those struggling most.
Ofgem’s headline number is useful as a guide but what really counts is how much energy you use, and the cap the regulator applies to the underlying unit prices and standing charges.
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Here the maximum chargeable rate for electricity rises from 25.73p per kWh to 26.35p, while the unit cost of gas actually falls, from 6.33p per kWh to 6.26p. Daily standing charges for both increase however, by a total of 7p.
That increase provides an insight into the factors that will determine prices today and in future.
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Energy price cap rises by 2%
The biggest factor remains the international price of wholesale gas. It was what drove prices north of £4,000 a year after the pipelines to Russia were turned off, and has dragged them back down as Norway and liquid natural gas imported from the US, Australia and Qatar filled the gap.
The long-term solution is to replace reliance on gas with renewable and low-carbon sources of energy but shifting the balance comes with an up-front cost shared by all bill payers. So too is the cost of energy poverty that has soared since 2022.
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Bills must rise to pay for energy transition
This price cap includes an increase to cover “balancing costs”. These are fees typically paid to renewable generators to stop producing electricity because the national grid can’t always handle the transfer of power from Scotland, where the bulk is produced, to the south, where the lion’s share is consumed.
There is also an increase to cover the expansion of the Warm Homes Discount, a £150 payment extended to 2.7 million people by the government during the tortuous process of withdrawing and then partially re-instating the winter fuel payment to pensioners.
And while the unit price of gas has actually fallen, the daily standing charge, which covers the cost of maintaining the gas network, has risen by 4p, somewhat counterintuitively because we are using less.
While warmer weather and greater efficiency of homes means consumption has fallen, the cost of maintaining the network remains, and has to be shared across fewer units of gas. Expect that trend to be magnified as gas use declines but remains essential to maintaining electricity supply at short notice on a grid dominated by renewables.
Cash-strapped Thames Water has agreed a payment plan with regulators to cover off a record fine that threatened to exacerbate its financial difficulties.
Britain’s biggest supplier was to pay £24.5m of the £122.7m sum by 30 September under the agreement.
Ofwat, which imposed the penalty in May for breaches of its rules over sewage discharges and dividend payments, said the balance would be due once a rescue financing deal was agreed or if it was placed into a special administration regime by the government.
Sky News revealed earlier this month that Steve Reed, the environment secretary, had signed off on the appointment of FTI Consulting to assist with contingency planning for putting Thames into a special administration regime.
It further meant that FTI was the frontrunner to act as the company’s administrator, should Thames fail to secure its private sector bailout.
Sky’s City editor Mark Kleinman said that the deal on the table, that would see Thames’s lenders injecting about £5bn of new capital and writing off roughly £12bn of value across its capital structure, was potentially dependent on Ofwat’s handling of the water firm’s fines.
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Administrator lined up for Thames Water
Thames has argued it needs financial space to guarantee its turnaround.
Thames initially had until 20 August to pay the £122.7m sum, but it requested the agreement of a payment plan.
Ofwat’s deal with Thames only kicks the can down the road.
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The regulator said on Wednesday that it had set a “backstop date” of 31 March 2030 for the remaining penalties.
Thames Water said the fines would not be paid for out of customer bills.
It added: “The company continues to work closely with stakeholders to secure a market-led recapitalisation which delivers for customers and the environment as soon as practicable.”
The agreement was announced as the water watchdog prepares to be abolished under government plans to bolster oversight of the industry.
Lynn Parker, senior director of enforcement at Ofwat, said: “This payment plan continues to hold Thames Water to account for their failures but also recognises the ongoing equity raise and recapitalisation process.
“Our focus remains on ensuring that the company takes the right steps to deliver a turnaround in its operational performance and strengthen its financial resilience to the benefit of customers.”