The Taliban’s triumphant march into Kabul seven days ago was the result of long-term planning and rank opportunism.
For weeks, Western leaders had insisted it just wouldn’t happen; in one heated briefing with journalists, the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nicholas Carter, even attacked the media for being unpatriotic and claimed that NATO forces had scored a strategic victory.
But for 72 hours over an August weekend, and with many senior officials away on their summer holidays, the world watched wide-eyed as the Taliban made their way into the central squares of city after city and finally through the gates of Kabul itself.
So how did this happen? How did 20 years of hard fighting, close mentoring, and vast financial investment unravel in only 11 days?
How did the “greatest military force ever assembled”, as George W Bush called it, not manage to defeat a group of mere “country boys”, as Gen Carter described them?
For this article, Sky News has spoken to a series of serving and retired military commanders, intelligence officials, and politicians. Between them they have decades of experience in Afghanistan. They tell a story of abandonment that has “left a stain on the West”, political short-sightedness that “demonstrates an ignorance of history and culture” and a future that is “uncertain, unpredictable, and will almost certainly come back to bite”.
From The White House briefing room in Washington DC, president Donald Trump described American forces as “the greatest fighters in the world”, but said “it’s time, after all these years, to bring our people home”.
Around the same time in Kabul, his defense secretary Mark Esper admitted “the road ahead won’t be easy”, while Afghanistan’s then-president Ashraf Ghani, standing next to the American but not a part of the talks, said his government was “ready to negotiate with the Taliban”.
From NATO to the UN, Berlin to London, the deal was welcomed with caution. Although many failed to share the American optimism, most knew the day had been long coming and accepted it.
“We went in together and we will leave together,” the alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the time.
Britain’s defence secretary, initially a cautious supporter of the deal, has since described it as “rotten”, but too late. At the time Britain and other allies kept on message, afraid of angering Washington. On reflection, perhaps they should have spoken out sooner.
After the deaths of 2,400 US troops, 457 British troops and more than 60,000 Afghans, this was the beginning of the end – just not how anyone expected it.
Image: British troops departed upon the end of operations in Helmand in October 2014, although a small number remained
It isn’t possible to point to a precise moment when everything started to unravel. Instead a series of events culminated over a relatively short period that, in the words of a military commander with knowledge of the situation, “sapped the confidence of the Afghan forces and passed the initiative to the enemy”.
The departure of civilian contractors, many of them ex-military, removed the network of logistical and engineering support so vital to any war effort.
But it was perhaps the loss of allied air support that crippled the fighting power of the Afghan forces and left them so exposed on the battlefield.
“For years they had gone into the fight with ground knowledge from our ISR assets (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), knowing they could then call-in air power if needed,” one former RAF pilot told us.
“We trained them to fight like that.
“You suddenly remove this safety blanket and they’re on their own; they knew that, and even worse, so did the Taliban.
“The truth is, most NATO forces wouldn’t fight without this backup, and yet we were expecting the Afghans to.”
Although the US continued limited airstrikes against Taliban positions, they weren’t enough to halt the advance, and besides, the Pentagon had made clear that support would come to an end by September.
“(US President Joe) Biden and others can say what they like about the failings of the Afghan Security Forces in recent weeks, but they merely expose their lack of understanding of warfare – it is not about numbers, or even training or equipment. It is about morale, will and confidence,” is the blunt assessment of one former head of British forces in Helmand Province.
“The US and NATO’s abandonment left them floundering, devoid of belief and fighting spirit. By contrast it buoyed the Taliban, giving them an unwarranted sense of legitimacy. The result, while swifter than most informed people expected, was pretty much inevitable.”
Through July, as the Taliban advance grew momentum, Afghan forces withdrew from some of the rural areas to concentrate on major routes, border crossings and key cities. It was a deliberate strategy to protect the bits that mattered, but the strategy of an army already on the run.
In late July, I met the Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib on a visit to London. He tried to put a brave spin on events: “Losing districts means we can focus on other areas. It’s not as bad as the Taliban would have you believe – they are winning the media war but not the military one.”
But Mr Mohib, who has since fled Afghanistan, knew by then that things weren’t looking good.
“The Americans probably didn’t realise how dependent the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces]were on our NATO partners. The withdrawal has had a devastating impact. The Taliban are like zombies: kill or be killed.”
Despite this downbeat assessment, Mr Mohib was still devising his national security strategy for the coming six months; if he had any inkling of what was coming, he never let on.
For years they had gone into the fight with ground knowledge from our ISR assets (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), knowing they could then call-in air power if needed…
The truth is, most NATO forces wouldn’t fight without this backup, and yet we were expecting the Afghans to.
Through my many trips to Afghanistan perhaps one message was more consistent than any other, no more so than when I stood in the hills outside Kabul and watched new officer recruits tackling an assault course.
This “Sandhurst in the Sand” academy was supposed to be Britain’s legacy to Afghanistan, and I was repeatedly told how it was a “generational commitment” to train, mentor and nurture the commanding officers who would ensure stability and peace long after NATO left.
“We need to be here for years, possibly decades,” a British soldier told me at the time. “When an entire generation has passed through these gates and the head of the Afghan Armed Forces has been trained by us, here at this academy, then it will be ok to leave.”
That was only three years ago. The commitment will never be fulfilled.
On my last visit to Kabul, the city felt different to previous trips. Afghans oversaw security, manned checkpoints, and guarded major buildings. NATO forces sped across the capital in armoured vehicles but stayed largely behind the scenes. It was very clear there had been a deliberate shift in responsibilities.
The Taliban still launched attacks from rural strongholds, and although the attrition rate among Afghan soldiers was high – too high – they were just about holding the peace. As far as NATO commanders were concerned, it was a workable situation.
“The more we stepped back, the more they stood up, but international assistance in the background was vital,” one former commander of Task Force Helmand reflected.
“They have the capacity for great courage and resilience, but the development of real institutional resilience was work in progress – it takes decades, not years, to grow institutions, particularly against the backdrop of Afghanistan’s wider challenges.”
The US withdrawal cut this short.
President Biden inherited the Trump peace plan but didn’t change it. In fact he expediated it by a few months, eager to make good on a campaign promise to bring America’s longest war to an end.
In recent days Mr Biden has sought to justify his decision by arguing that remaining in the country for another “ten, fifteen years” would have made little difference. Maybe he’s right, we’ll never know, but few outside of government share that view.
The Afghan soldiers have the capacity for great courage and resilience, but the development of real institutional resilience was work in progress – it takes decades, not years, to grow institutions, particularly against the backdrop of Afghanistan’s wider challenges.
For one recently retired British general, with long operational experience in the Middle East, the politicians are to blame for what the country is going through now.
“As an Afghan, who do you trust more: the countryman who says he will kill you, or the foreigner who says he will protect you? When we lead, or fight alongside ‘native troops’, they will perform wonders, but their own commanders and political masters routinely betray them by corruption or refusal to accept responsibility.
“The US withdrawal and the inevitable collapse of the Afghan security forces means that every other aspect of our 20-year engagement (political, institutional, educational, social, health etc) has also collapsed.
“What was an ‘economy of force’ operation (very little blood, and relatively small amounts of treasure, given our overall investment in Afghanistan, rightly or wrongly) was needlessly and avoidably halted, with all the predictable consequences, so Joe Biden could meet a totally artificial deadline.”
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President Biden’s criticism of Afghan forces for failing to stand up to the Taliban has been widely criticised
He is not alone in pointing the finger at Washington.
“Yes, exit was Trump’s policy,” tweeted the former British ambassador Tom Fletcher. “Yes, he would have communicated and executed it in an even clumsier, more crass way. But we expect empathy, strategy and wisdom from Biden. His messaging targeted Trump’s base, not the rest of world and not allies past or future.”
Others are angry at their own party.
One British Conservative MP texted to say: “I don’t really see the point of being in the Tory party anymore”, while another simply messaged three words: “Tragic. Unnecessary. Shameful.”
A few days before the collapse of Kabul, Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, himself a former soldier, broke diplomatic cover to reveal that he had tried to persuade some fellow NATO allies to stay in Afghanistan once the US had left. He failed, and by then it was too late.
The appetite to operate without American backup just wasn’t there – this chaotic episode has exposed NATO’s weaknesses and shone a harsh light on years of defence cuts that have left the British Armed Forces either unable or unwilling to go it alone.
President Biden’s criticism of Afghan forces for failing to stand up to the Taliban has been widely criticised. As a nation Afghans have paid a far, far higher toll than any other, but as the inevitable became clear, they deserted their posts and in some cases the country altogether.
On Saturday 14 August, the day before Kabul fell, 24 Afghan helicopters carrying almost 600 servicemen flew in secret to Uzbekistan.
Hundreds more crossed the Amu Darya river on Afghanistan’s northern border, but were detained by Uzbek border troops.
Image: The rusting Soviet tanks in the Panjshir Valley are relics of a long history of resistance. Pic: AP
Others made for the Panjshir Valley, north of Kabul in the Hindu Kush. The lush, mountainous region is still dotted with rusting tanks, destroyed during the Soviet occupation in the 1980s, relics of a long history of resistance. If an uprising against the Taliban is going to come from anywhere, it will be the Panjshir, the one corner of Afghanistan the Taliban doesn’t control.
By Sunday lunchtime it was all but over. By now the Taliban was inside the capital, and en route to the Presidential Palace.
Knowing the game was up, soldiers changed out of their combat fatigues and melted into the crowds, fearful of Taliban retribution.
Western capitals watched aghast. The few official statements that did come out were largely out of touch and outpaced by the fast-moving events on the ground.
Remarkably some still called for a “political solution”, but there was nothing left to negotiate. The Taliban had won.
NATO might have abandoned Afghanistan first, but the country’s president and senior leadership followed swiftly afterwards.
Ashraf Ghani fled with his family and close aides. Reports said he was denied entry to Turkmenistan; he eventually surfaced in the United Arab Emirates, vowing to return and fight but Mr Ghani, not hugely popular when in power, is even less so after deserting his country.
Echoing the thoughts of so many who deployed in service of their country, one officer, still serving at the top of the chain, wrote to say: “The abandonment of our Afghan partners is a stain on the West. It leaves those who sweated, fought, suffered (and continue to suffer) and grieved feeling horrified and betrayed.”
One intelligence source defended accusations they didn’t see it coming, saying: “We did.
“Ok, maybe the speed of the Taliban advance took us a bit by surprise, but a swift Taliban overthrow was one of the scenarios we put to politicians. The problem is, they either didn’t want to hear it, or didn’t know what to do with it.”
MI6 and the CIA could do nothing but stand back and watch as the Taliban ripped through.
“I felt like crying,” another British intelligence officer confided. “We’ve spent decades trying to understand the country, building networks and relationships to ultimately keep Britain safe. Within days it was all undone. We go back to the drawing board. Many of the assets, who risked their lives to help us, are now in grave danger.”
In 20 years of conflict and reconstruction, however, Afghanistan has been undeniably transformed.
Education attendance is up, especially among girls; women have been able to work and represent their country in government, sport and music; roads have been tarmacked, improving transport links; and access to medical services, especially maternity care is vastly better. When widows and injured veterans reasonably ask: “Was it all worth it?”, these are the improvements they can be rightly proud of.
Image: Some Afghans were so desperate to escape the Taliban that they clung to a plane as it tried to take off from Kabul
But for all that, the enduring images that publishers will put on the front covers, when the historians write the final accounts of yet another failed intervention in this graveyard of empires, will be two moments in the dying days of this mission. One is the heartbreaking sight of babies being passed over barbed wire to helpless soldiers by mothers so desperate, that they can see no other way.
The other is a photograph of Afghan men, clinging to the side of a giant US C17 transport aircraft as it gathers pace down the runway of Kabul airport leaving Afghanistan behind, in the hands of the Taliban.
For 20 years, as the fighting raged and death toll increased, the Taliban waited, believing NATO would eventually run out of patience. It turns out, they were right.
Tens of thousands of people have packed St Peter’s Square as the funeral of Pope Francis begins.
Royals, world leaders and cardinals joined scores of worshippers at the Vatican, as mourning of the 266th pontiff transcended wealth and social class.
In keeping with Francis’s life as a breaker of tradition, many of the more elaborate and expensive rituals customary for the burial of popes have been foregone in favour of simpler options.
Around 200,000 people are attending the funeral, with around 50,000 packing out St Peter’s Square.
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His body had been lying in state since his death aged 88 on Easter Monday, spending the last few days in St Peter’s Basilica to allow mourners to pay their respects.
The Vatican – where the funeral service is taking place – and Rome – where Francis will be laid to rest – are under heavy security, with a no-fly zone in place overhead.
Image: The coffin of Pope Francis is borne aloft by pallbearers. Pic: Reuters
Image: Members of the clergy gathered to say farewell to their pontiff. Pic: Reuters
Francis’s coffin has been taken out into St Peter’s Square where 220 cardinals and 750 bishops and priests are sitting in rows, waiting to say goodbye to the Bishop of Rome.
A series of readings and prayers are being read before the 50,000 faithful gathered before the basilica, and the coffin will be sprinkled with holy water and incense.
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2:27
Singing rings out at the Vatican
Image: Members of the clergy stand in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
It began with Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re reading the Penitential Act – a way for the faithful to confess their sinfulness.
This was followed by the Liturgy of the Word, a part in Catholic mass where faithful gather to hear and reflect on the word of God.
Cardinal Re then delivered the homily, speaking about Pope Francis’ life and service to God.
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0:52
Applause breaks out as Zelenskyy arrives
Image: Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re read the homily
The cardinal praised the pontiff as someone who “touched the minds and hearts of people” who was “attentive to the signs of the times”.
He added: “Despite his frailty and suffering towards the end, Pope Francis chose to follow this path of self-giving until the last day of his earthly life.”
He said Francis “was a pope among the people, with an open heart towards everyone”.
Image: Tens of thousands pack St Peter’s Square for the funeral. Pic: AP
Image: Clergy seated during the funeral. Pic: AP
At the end of the mass, the choir will sing in Latin: “May the angels lead you into paradise; may the martyrs come and welcome you and take you into the holy city, the new and eternal Jerusalem.”
After the service, Pope Francis’s body will be taken in procession through the streets of Rome to his final resting place at his favourite church, the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore.
Image: Worshippers outside the Papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore. Pic: Reuters
He will be ushered into the basilica – dedicated to the Virgin Mary – by prisoners and migrants, a last reflection of his priorities as pope.
In a break with tradition, the Popeoutlined in his will his request to be buried “in the ground, without particular ornamentation” but simply with the inscription “Franciscus”.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
Image: Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, told NBC News that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Dini von Mueffling, Giuffre’s representative, also told the outlet: “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims. She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words. It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
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Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘I am now a survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
As the line of mourners moves slowly along behind him, Ciriaco Sarnelli peers at me from beneath the immaculate brim of his cap.
The military police chief looks, by any standards, magnificent – shoulders back and proudly wearing the black uniform of the Carabinieri.
“Our history goes back more than 200 years,” he says. “We remember our past, and our place. The only people with black uniforms are the priests, the judges and the Carabinieri.”
He leaves the rest unsaid – the Carabinieri sit at the heart of Italian cultural life.
Image: Ciriaco Sarnelli, Carabinieri military police chief
Once, they defended the borders of a young nation. Now, they have a new challenge that has its own weighty burden – to keep St Peter’s Square safe during the funeral of Pope Francis.
This is no easy task. Hundreds of thousands will descend upon the Vatican for the event.
Inside will be Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Prince William and dozens upon dozens of other dignitaries.
Outside will be the Carabinieri.
They won’t be alone – there are thousands of other police officers due to be assigned to protect the event – but the Carabinieri are affiliated to the military; the most highly-trained officers on duty.
Image: A member of the security personnel wields an anti-drone gun for the Pope’s funeral
“This is an extraordinary operation,” says Sarnelli, as we look out over the crowd. “So we have employed some special units that belong to Carabinieri – the bomb squad, a dogs unit, snipers and helicopters. We want to assure the people who are arriving here that they can take part in this event in the best way, in a secure way.”
He says they are ready for “common crimes” – like pickpockets in the crowd – but also “the biggest, terrifying events”.
He says there is “excellent coordination” with police forces from other countries.
Around him, his officers are smiling, chatting to tourists and Romans alike.
The security here is overt but friendly, even if I’m told there are also plenty of plain-clothed officers mingling within the crowd.
Guns and grins both on show.
A police helicopter circles above. In the port of Rome, a naval destroyer has been primed for action; there are fighter jets ready to take off.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
Image: Huge crowds have come from around the world to see the Pope’s body
If the impression is relaxed, the reality is different. The classic swan.
All the strands are pulled together from one place and, what’s more, it offers a perfect view of Vatican City.
From where I’m standing, I can see the front of St Peter’s Basilica, the side, and the roads around it. I can see the crowds coming in, and the crowds going out.
And I can see an anxious policeman drumming his fingers.
But we are not in St Peter’s and not even in the Vatican.
This is the high-security control room on the fifth floor of Rome’s police headquarters.
And from here, you can see everything.
Image: The control room from where security officials can see across the Italian capital
An array of screens are in front of us and, watching them, men and women, huddled over screens and all wearing contrasting uniforms.
Some are military, some national police, some wear the clothes of firefighters. A few are in plain clothes and there is even a man wearing the badge of the prison officers’ service.
This centre is a hub for collaboration and decision-making and it brings together every service that is involved in ensuring the safety and security of the funeral.
There is a Carabinieri officer here, as well as the Guardia di Finanza national police and the Roman force. The government’s secret intelligence service is represented here, too.
Elisabetta Accardo is from Rome’s police department. We talk against the gentle hubbub in the control room, colleagues pointing at screens and agreeing plans.
Image: Elisabetta Accardo, Rome Police control room spokeswoman
I ask when Italy last had to deal with a security operation on this scale, and she laughs. “Hundreds of years,” she says.
“It is unprecedented. The level of security is at the maximum.” She describes the plan as “structured three-dimensional security”.
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It is a plan that has been long in the making, but which has been reshaped over the past few days to react to the whims of the Pope’s final wishes.
It is, after all, more than a century since a pope was buried outside the walls of the Vatican.
You get the impression that the people designing the security plan could rather have done without having to add an hour-long procession through Rome into the plan.
But so be it.
By Saturday night, it will be done. Rome can start to get back to normal; the foreign leaders will be on their way home.
And the Rome police will breathe just a little bit easier.