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A charity has raised its concerns about the looming end of the £20-a-week uplift to Universal Credit, describing it as the “biggest overnight cut in benefits since the Second World War”. 

According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 413 out of a total of 632 parliamentary constituencies in England, Wales and Scotland will see more than one in three families and their children affected as a result of the £1,040 a year cut.

Of these constituencies, 191 are held by Conservative MPs and 53 were won at the last general election or in a subsequent by-election.

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March: Sunak extends universal credit uplift

In some Labour-held areas, more than three-quarters of families with children will be affected.

The JRF report comes as Citizens Advice warns that if the planned cut goes ahead, 38% of those on Universal Credit would be in debt after paying just their essential bills, rising to nearly half (49%) of households on Universal Credit in so-called “Red Wall” areas.

The temporary increase in Universal Credit was introduced last year amid the COVID-19 pandemic and extended for six months in March, but MPs and charities have called for it to stay.

The cut, which is due to come into force on 6 October, is expected to have the most severe impact in Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, North West, and West Midlands.

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But the JRF has said the policy change will have “deep and far-reaching consequences on families with children across Britain”.

Katie Schmuecker, the charity’s deputy director of policy and partnerships, said: “We are just over a month away from the UK government imposing the biggest overnight cut to the basic rate of social security since the Second World War.

“This latest analysis lays bare the deep and far-reaching impact that cutting Universal Credit will have on millions of low-income families across Britain.

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April 2020: One million sign up for Universal Credit

“MPs from across the political spectrum are already expressing their deep concerns about this planned cut. Now is the time for all MPs to step up and oppose this cut to their constituents’ living standards.

“Plunging low-income families into deeper poverty and debt as well as sucking billions of pounds out of local economies is no way to level up. It’s not too late for the prime minister and chancellor to listen to the huge opposition to this damaging cut and change course.”

Two examples cited by the JRF are in Peterborough (Conservative), where 64% of working-age families with children will be hit and Bradford West (Labour), where 82% of families with children will be affected.

Naz Shah, MP for the latter constituency, said “additional funding” was needed in her area instead of the planned cut.

She said: “The same party that refused to pay for free school meals to feed hungry children is now refusing to keep the Universal Credit uplift which as research shows will put 500,000 people into poverty and impact those already struggling in my constituency.”

According to analysis from the JRF, on average 21% of all working-age families in Great Britain will see a £1,040 a year cut to their incomes on 6 October.

In the 58 seats newly won by the Tories, that average is 23%, the charity found.

Labour has said it would keep the uplift in place if it was in power and has pledged to eventually replace UC with a “fairer” system.

The party’s shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: “The government’s £1,000 a year cut will be a hammer blow to millions of families, hitting the lowest paid hardest and hurting our economic recovery.

“Time is running out for the Conservatives to see sense, back struggling families and cancel their cut to Universal Credit.”

Responding to the report, a government spokesperson said: “The temporary uplift to Universal Credit was designed to help claimants through the economic shock and financial disruption of the toughest stages of the pandemic, and it has done so.

“Universal Credit will continue to provide a vital safety net and with record vacancies available, alongside the successful vaccination rollout, it’s right that we now focus on our Plan for Jobs, helping claimants to increase their earnings by boosting their skills and getting into work, progressing in work or increasing their hours.”

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Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch to be crowned Tory leader today – but whoever wins contest faces daunting task

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Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch to be crowned Tory leader today - but whoever wins contest faces daunting task

The next leader of the Conservative party will be announced today, following a run-off between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

The winner will replace Rishi Sunak as the leader of the opposition, after he led the party to a crushing election defeat in July, losing almost two thirds of its MPs.

His successor faces the daunting task of rebuilding the Tory party after years of division, scandal and economic turbulence, which saw Labour eject them from power by a landslide.

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Voting by tens of thousands of party members, who need to have joined at least 90 days ago, closed on Thursday. Both candidates have claimed the result will be close.

The Conservatives do not disclose how many members the party has, but the figure was about 172,000 in 2022, and research suggests they are disproportionately affluent, older white men.

Both candidates are seen as on the party’s right wing. Kemi Badenoch, 44, is the former trade secretary, who was born in London to middle-class Nigerian parents but spent most of her childhood in Lagos.

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After moving back to the UK aged 16, she stayed with a family friend while taking her A-levels, and has spoken of her time working at McDonald’s as a teenager.

Having studied computer science at Sussex University, she then worked as a software engineer before entering London politics and becoming MP for Saffron Walden in Essex in 2017.

Ms Badenoch prides herself on being outspoken and has said the Conservatives lost because they “talked right and governed left”. But her critics paint her as abrasive and prone to misspeaking.

At the Conservative Party conference, a crucial staging post in the contest, she began her speech which followed three other male candidates by saying: “Nice speeches, boys, but I think you all know I’m the one everyone’s been waiting for.”

Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch,
Pic: PA
Image:
Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. Pics: PA

Her rival Robert Jenrick, 42, has been on a political journey. Elected as a Cameroon Conservative in 2014, he was one of the rising star ministers who swung behind Boris Johnson as prime minister and was later a vocal supporter of Rishi Sunak.

But he resigned as immigration minister in December 2023, claiming Sunak’s government was breaking its promises to cut immigration.

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The MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire says he had a “working-class” upbringing in Wolverhampton. He read history at Cambridge University and worked at Christie’s auctioneers before winning a by-election.

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October: Jenrick v Badenoch for Tory leadership

After a long ministerial career where he was seen as mild-mannered, he is said to have been “radicalised” by his time at the Home Office and has focused his campaign on a promise to slash immigration and leave the European Convention on Human Rights to “stand for our nation and our culture, our identity and our way of life”.

He has put forward more policies than his rival, but attracted criticism for some of his claims – including that Britain’s former colonies owe the Empire a “debt of gratitude”.

A survey of party members by the website Conservative Home last week put Kemi Badenoch in the lead by 55 points to Mr Jenrick’s 31 with polls still open.

James Cleverly, the shadow home secretary and seen as a more centrist candidate was knocked out of the race last month. One of his supporters, the Conservative peer and former Scotland leader Ruth Davidson, has predicted neither Mr Jenrick nor Ms Badenoch will stay as leader until the next general election.

She told the Sky News Electoral Dysfunction podcast: “I’ve now voted for Robert Jenrick, who I don’t think will win. I struggle to believe that the person that’s the next leader of the Tory party is going to take us into the next election in five years’ time and I struggle to believe that they’re going to leave the leadership at a time of their own choosing.”

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‘All candidates should get job in shadow cabinet’

Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConHome, said the contest which Tory officials decided would take almost three months, has not led to enough scrutiny – because the MP rounds of voting took so long.

“We know much less [about them] than I think we should”, he said. “The problem with this contest is the party decided to go really long, but at the same time, they confined the membership vote – with just the final two – to just three weeks, and ballots dropped halfway through that process.

“We had months and months with loads of candidates in the race, but also that was the MP rounds and you’d think the MPs will have a chance to get to know these people already. For the actual choice the members are going to be making, there has been barely any time to scrutinise that.

He added: “I think the party remembers Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak taking weeks to take lumps out of each other in 2022 and wanted to avoid that. But it means the two campaigns haven’t really been attacking each other and that tends to be how you expose people’s weaknesses.”

(left to right) Tory leadership candidates, Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick , James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat, stand together on stage after delivering their speeches during the Conservative Party Conference at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham. Picture date: Wednesday October 2, 2024.
Image:
(L-R) Ms Badenoch, Mr Jenrick, and previous leadership rivals James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat at the Conservative Party conference. Pic: PA

After 14 years in government under five prime ministers, it is not since David Cameron in 2005 that the party has elected a leader to go into opposition – with a long road until the next general election.

Veteran ex-MP Graham Brady, who served as chair of the backbench 1922 committee, told Sky News that the position was more hopeful than after the 1997 landslide.

He said: “The biggest challenge for a leader of the opposition in these circumstances is just to be heard, to be noticed. I came into the House of Commons in 1997 at the time of that huge Blair landslide.

“We worked very, very hard in opposition during that parliament, and at the next general election [in 2001], we made a net gain of one seat.

“Now, there is a huge difference between now and 1997. The Blair government remained very popular and Tony Blair personally remained very popular through that whole parliament and beyond. And in 100 days or so, Keir Starmer has already fallen way behind.

“So I think we’ve got a great opportunity. I don’t think we’re up against an insuperable challenge, but it’s a big challenge.”

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Grant Shapps’ warning for next Tory leader

Kate Fall, now Baroness Fall, worked with Lord Cameron in opposition and later in Downing Street when he was prime minister in the coalition government. She said the next leader needed to keep the party “united and disciplined”.

“The first thing is to think about why we lost. The second thing is what do we have to say? Then they need to be agile, they need to be reactive, but pick their fight, not fight over everything. They also need to get out and about,” she said.

Lord Cameron travelled around the country holding question and answer sessions called Cameron Direct. “When you’re prime minister, you can’t do that as much as you like. But as leader of the opposition you can get out, talk to people, we thought it was very trendy to have a podcast and so on.”

She says this week’s budget gives the next leader “an ideological divide” to get into, but warns that the next leader must not risk alienating former Tories who switched to Labour and the Lib Dems.

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The leader of the opposition will cut their teeth at weekly Prime Minister’s Questions sessions opposite Sir Keir Starmer and respond to set piece events such as the budget.

They will need to get the party’s campaign machine ready for the local elections in England in May 2025, Scottish elections in 2026 and the next general election expected in 2029.

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