As the West leaves Afghanistan, Kabul’s neighbours will need to work with the Taliban to bring stability to the region
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the focus has been on the evacuation effort, as people scramble to leave a country which has been grappling with war for two decades.
Western forces have now left the country and thoughts will turn to what a post-Western Afghanistan will look like, with the Taliban in control.
In the short-term, neighbours will be watching, hoping for stability and the Taliban will be hoping for international recognition as they seek to establish a government after 20 years in the wilderness.
Chinese delegates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Beijing looks set to support the country
There will be much soul-searching in Washington, London and other NATO capitals as the fallout of the last few weeks is scrutinised.
But in the cities, mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the attention will turn to writing the history of the fallout of the Taliban’s victory.
Afghanistan, and the wider region, is a different place compared to 2001 when the US military intervention began after 9/11. The US had issued a threat to Pakistan at the time, telling it to sever ties with the Taliban or be treated like them by US forces.
It has never been clear whether Pakistan complied with this threat but Pakistan, like China and Iran, will be a key player in Afghanistan’s future simply because of their proximity.
All of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries will react to the developments in the last week; Iran shares a long border with western Afghanistan; China has a comparatively small border to the northeast; while Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are to the north.
Could ISIS Khorasan cause a civil war?
Dr Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow at the University of Nottingham, suggests Afghanistan could be better without a US military presence in its territory.
“Over the last 20 years, the West has constantly indicated a complete lack of cultural and strategic intelligence. The West fails to understand that the Taliban came into existence to fight corruption, and it instead installed a government in a position that is known to be corrupt,” he told Sky News.
There is a concern from neighbouring countries that the Taliban could spread instability into its borders and Afghanistan slides back into a civil war.
Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, believes the US military has taken the “brunt of the instability and with the US departure there will be an onus on the region to take the stability”.
“Many of these neighbouring states are in antipathy with the US, not a single one hosts a US military base,” he told Sky News.
“In the medium-term, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbours all have the incentive to allow ISIS not to use Afghanistan as a breeding ground for extremism. They should work together; it would be smart for the Taliban by helping to not export the violence.”
The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short term
In varying degrees, Tehran and Beijing are each in dispute with Washington and even the government in Islamabad has grown weary of the US.
Prime Minister Imran Kahn was critical of the US last week when he said: “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind.” And Mr Puri suggests a “US failure is going to be a good thing” for the region.
But for all the neighbouring countries, the immediate worry could be one of civil war. ISIS Khorasan, who claimed the attack outside Kabul airport on 25 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and have a vested interest in stopping and disrupting the Taliban.
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The US is reported to have killed 10 members of one family after it tried to stop suicide bombers attacking Kabul airport.
The ISIS-K attack killed 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members.
In response, the US launched an airstrike against what the US military said was a vehicle carrying three ISIL-KP members and another drone strike was carried out on 29 August – allegedly killing 10 members of a family, including children.
But Dr Ashraf believes the threat of a civil war caused by ISIS-K is low. He said: “I doubt there will be a civil war because ISIS-K is too small in number and too dispersed for anything that can be identified close to a civil war.
Western forces have left Afghanistan after 20 years in the country
“The only part of Afghanistan where they have a significant rebellion involving fighting is in the Panjshir Valley and even that cannot be called a civil war.
“It would be interesting to see how the Taliban deal with ISIS. They potentially have the ability to deal with them more effectively than the previous government supported by the CIA and other western agencies. They will be keen to eliminate ISIS, but it is less certain as to how and when they can achieve that.”
While stability is uncertain, the Taliban should focus on its economy
In the short-term, the region’s focus, and that of the Taliban, will be on security but the new leaders will need to look at rebuilding the economy, something that will require corporation and support from its neighbours.
Dr Ashraf said: “The Taliban are hugely dependent on international support. What they are saying is our ‘country boys’ are great at facing and firing bullets, but they can’t do much anything else.
“That’s why they want a representative government and want to retain as many people as possible in government and elsewhere.
“What is different is they are a little more serious and savvier about the fact they won’t be able to live only on handouts, like the previous government.”
Given 20 years of war, it is going to be politically difficult for the western governments to be seen to be funding and supporting a Taliban-led government, even if they wanted to.
They could indirectly provide assistance through the significant work of the United Nations in the country but it is likely that most support comes from other sources in the region.
In the last week, the focus has been on evacuating those on the ground. Soon it will turn to what a Taliban-led Afghanistan looks like Pic: @DefenceHQ
“They will want to invest any support on becoming self-sufficient. They could possibly have some investment from Qatar and other Middle Eastern governments for economic and social development,” Dr Ashraf adds.
Unlike in 2001, the region has greater corporation capability through the multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
All but one country, Iran, hold membership status to the SCO and at the latest summit in July 2021, the instability in Afghanistan was discussed.
Afghanistan has held observer status since 2012, and while formal membership may be delayed, it offers a diplomatic mechanism to coordinate a regional response to the ever-changing realities of Taliban rule.
ISIS-K, who carried out the attack outside the airport on 26 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and will seek to disrupt them
The SCO was formed in 1996 as a reaction to the civil war in Afghanistan and the dissolution of the USSR.
It offered ways to foster economic cooperation in the region for its founders China and Russia, as well as a way to track security threats.
While the SCO will look at how they can help the Taliban bring stability, Afghanistan’s neighbours will have their own bilateral responses.
China’s foreign minister met with representatives of the Taliban earlier this week and according to Dr Hongyi Lai, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham in China, Beijing will “see it as a positive development”.
From a Chinese point of view, aligning themselves with Afghanistan will allow them to use it as a bargaining chip on the global stage
“They [China] will be aware of the political and security challenges for them but it is an opportunity for China to play out its influence with the Taliban as a diplomatic tool with the US and Joe Biden,” he said.
“They will use it as a bargaining chip and initially the Taliban will need to gain international recognition with the help of China.
“Chinese mentality regarding stability is they will focus on the economic solution rather than government, which is postulated by the West.”
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Dr Lai and Dr Ashraf both suggested mining rare metals could give the potential for both sides to corporate and build up Afghanistan’s economy.
Dr Ashraf adds that Afghanistan has the potential the develop its economy through agriculture, something that is relatively cost-effective and offsets the potential for radicalisation through the creation of jobs.
Mr Puri also suggests a potential bilateral trade deal between China and Kabul and Dr Ashraf is “confident initially it will be a bilateral” agreement with China.
The Taliban has long-established existing relationships with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – they have offices in Doha and both countries have supported the group financially in recent years.
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General Lord Richard Dannatt ponders the future for Afghanistan now that the Taliban have gained control.
Neither Doha nor Abu Dhabi will want the Taliban to fall into old habits and use the drug trade as a way to survive financially and Dr Ashraf suggests that this will stop senior Taliban officials from investing in the trade and potentially risk important funding now 80% of aid has been cut by the United States.
While it isn’t clear yet whether it is bilateral or multilateral ties that bind Afghanistan to its neighbours, it is evident regional cooperation without western involvement is much more developed now than it was 20 years ago.
Afghanistan’s neighbouring states will be initially looking to shore up their border against any threat of the instability spilling over but once the dust has settled, they will seek to work together to minimise the impact of the US departure.
World
America will not put up with it for much longer!’: Donald Trump hits out at Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy once again
Donald Trump has hit out at the Ukrainian president once again, just four days after an explosive on-camera spat between the pair.
The US president posted on Truth Social saying Volodymyr Zelenskyy made “the worst statement that could have been made” when he said the end of the war with Russia is “very, very far away”.
“America will not put up with it for much longer!” Mr Trump posted.
Live updates: Trump hits out at Zelenskyy again
“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.
Mr Zelenskyy then posted on X saying Ukraine is “working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace”.
“Peace is needed as soon as possible,” he posted.
Mr Trump also appeared to attack Mr Zelenskyy and Europe after yesterday’s Ukraine summit in London at which leaders, according to Mr Trump: “stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the US.”
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The Ukraine summit: How the day unfolded
“What are they thinking?” Mr Trump asked.
Hours later, however, during a press conference at the White House, Mr Trump praised Europe, saying its leaders have “acted very well”.
“We’re going to make deals with everybody… including Europe and European nations – and they’ve acted very well… they’re good people,” he said.
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He told reporters the deal with Ukraine wasn’t dead despite the ongoing disagreements between himself and Mr Zelenskyy.
Donald Trump speaking to reporters on Monday night. Pic: Reuters
“It’s a great deal for us,” he said.
“I just think he [President Zelenskyy] should be more appreciative.”
A deal to end the war was still “very, very far away”, Mr Zelenskyy said earlier, adding he expects to keep receiving US support despite the two leaders’ public spat.
“I think our relationship [with the US] will continue because it’s more than an occasional relationship,” the Ukrainian president added.
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Sky News meets Zelenskyy: The key moments
Despite the confrontation leading to Mr Zelenskyy being told to leave the White House, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage told Sky News’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig the argument may have been a “blessing”.
“Zelenskyy needed to wake up and smell the coffee,” said Mr Farage.
“And since that meeting, he’s done so, by the way, I’m told from people inside the White House that before they left the building, Zelenskyy wanted to go back in and sign the deal.”
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Pro-Ukrainian protesters gather in London
Mr Zelenskyy was in London over the weekend to meet with Sir Keir Starmer and King Charles and took part in a European summit on Ukraine convened by the UK.
Following the summit, Sir Keir announced a “coalition of the willing” to potentially provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
Read more: The ‘coalition of the willing’ – who’s in, who’s out?
US secretary of state Marco Rubio today thanked Foreign Secretary David Lammy for “the UK’s role in encouraging Europe to provide for its own defence and push for peace in Ukraine”, according to US state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.
“The secretary confirmed the United States is ready to negotiate to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict and will continue working with the UK towards peace in Ukraine,” she said.
Russia is finding it “significantly” harder to conduct combat operations against Ukraine because of a rise in Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian weapons supplies, ammunition depots and fuel refineries, a senior commander has said.
Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol signalled these attacks would grow, revealing that his country plans to more than quadruple the production rate of deep strike drones – with a range of hundreds of miles – to more than 2,000 aircraft a month.
Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol
Ukraine has been intensifying the tempo of its long-range drone strikes against targets inside Russia and Russian-occupied territory since late December – demonstrating what defence sources say is a world-leading capability that the Kremlin is struggling to counter.
The mission is an example of how Kyiv remains focused on combatting Moscow’s invasion even as world attention fixates on the fallout from a row between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as efforts by Europe to prepare a plan for peace.
Live updates: Ukraine war latest
The comments by Brigadier Shchygol, who coordinates long-range drone strikes for Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, offer a rare insight into the impact of the covert mission, which is also carried out by other branches of the Ukrainian military and security services.
“Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to conceal the extent of the damage,” the commander told Sky News in an interview at an undisclosed location in Kyiv.
“Headquarters have been hit, command structures weakened, and panic is spreading among their officers. Compared to a year ago, conducting full-scale combat operations has become significantly more challenging for [the Russians].”
Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading
Sky News analysis of long-range drone strikes last month found that since December, there had been a ramping up of attacks against oil refineries in Russia that are used to fuel Russian tanks, jets and warships.
The analysis took in strikes officially confirmed by the Ukrainian armed forces. Brigadier Shchygol said “far more” drone attacks by Ukraine are not publicly confirmed.
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Ukraine ramps up attacks on oil depots
In a sign of the importance placed on long-range drones, he said Kyiv’s ability to manufacture this weapon has already jumped 100-fold since late 2022 to more than 500 per month.
While the officer would not say how many of these drones are then deployed on operations, he noted: “Nothing is just sitting in storage unused.”
He said recent operations had targeted several storage sites for Russia’s Iranian-designed Shahed one-way attack drones – used by the Russian armed forces against Ukrainian military and civilian targets.
More than 3,000 Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, according to the officer, who said: “As a result, their deployment of these drones has significantly decreased.”
Top secret drone mission
Sky News was given rare access to view a drone mission last week at a top-secret area.
As night fell, soldiers dressed in black – all members of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, an elite branch of the armed forces – prepared a line of about 10 drones.
Ukrainian drones being launched from a secret location
Each aircraft looked like a giant, grey metal mosquito.
The model is called “Lutti”, which is Ukrainian for “Fury”.
One by one, the drones burst into life, a propeller on the back whirring, pushing the aircraft forward at ever greater speed until it took off into the darkness.
We were told their target was an ammunition depot inside Russia.
Ukraine’s drone technology is considered to be world-leading
“Vector” spoke with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity
“Vector”, the commander on the ground, said his drones have a success rate of 70 to 80%.
He said Ukraine’s deep strike operations are “very important”.
“We change the war with these drones,” Vector said, speaking with a balaclava pulled up to his eyes to protect his identity.
“We can show [Russia] that the war can come in their houses, in their towns, cities.”
Russia’s sheer size makes it vulnerable
Using drones to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia is a complex challenge.
As night falls, members of an elite branch of Ukraine’s armed forces prepare a line of drones
But the sheer size of their enemy’s country works in Ukraine’s favour. The Russian military has weapons sites, ammunition storage areas, oil refineries and military headquarters dotted across its territory and lacks the air defences to be able to protect them all.
“We are reaching those targets. The slowing pace of their offensives – and in some places, even Ukrainian counter-offensives reclaiming territory – proves that our strikes are effective and growing more so,” Brigadier Shchygol said.
Read more:
Which countries could send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine?
In the room with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A huge planning and reconnaissance effort underpins Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes.
It identifies targets and coordinates attacks between the different teams.
Varying volumes of drones are required for each mission – with some of the most complex strikes needing 100 unmanned aircraft.
From farm aircraft to fighter drone
The brigadier was speaking in a large room inside a disused building in Kyiv where five examples of different Ukrainian long-range drones were on display.
Brigadier Shchygol spoke to Sky News from a room where long-range drones were on display
They tell the story of the evolution of vital battlefield technology that began life on a farm.
The earliest form of the long-range drone looks like an ordinary light aircraft, with rectangular wings and two propellers. It is a lot smaller than a manned plane but much larger than a regular drone – probably about the length of a car, with a similar wingspan.
This model, fitted with a camera and a large fuel tank to fly for long periods, had been used for surveillance for agricultural purposes.
It was adapted after Russia’s full-scale invasion to conduct reconnaissance and even bombing missions.
The idea was then modified further to develop similar-sized drones that look more like fighter jets, with pointed noses and triangular wings. These were designed to hold explosives in the main body of the plane.
Some of the drones are remotely piloted, others work via autopilot.
Russia’s war has forced Ukraine to use technology and innovation to fight back against its far more powerful foe.
It has accelerated the use of autonomous machines in an irreversible transformation of the warzone that everyone is watching and learning from.
Brigadier Shchygol said: “Right now, Ukraine’s battlefield experience is essentially a manual for the world.”
A “coalition of the willing” could provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
The phrase was a central theme of Sir Keir Starmer’s speech after European leaders gathered in London for crucial talks about Ukraine’s future.
Led by the UK and France, the initiative could see troops from a number of European and NATO countries deployed to Ukraine as peacekeepers in order to deter Vladimir Putin from rearming and attacking again in the future.
Follow latest: Russia not ready to negotiate, Zelenskyy says
Sir Keir said Europe “must do the heavy lifting” on defence and indicated several countries had expressed interest in being part of the coalition.
So who’s in, who’s out – and what’s behind these latest buzzwords?
The UK, France and Ukraine are leading on developing a peace deal. Pic: PA
What is a coalition of the willing?
The prime minister has said the UK, France and Ukraine will work together on a peace deal that could be presented to the US.
The countries committed to working together on this deal would form a “coalition of the willing”.
Countries in the coalition could end up sending soldiers to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
Military analyst Michael Clarke said: “It has to be a coalition of the willing because you have at least two NATO members – Slovakia and Hungary – who are vetoing anything that Putin would not like… it’s the same with the EU.”
This approach would allow NATO members to act in a group but not under the NATO umbrella, avoiding vetoes from member states who don’t approve or don’t wish to be involved.
Sir Keir’s choice of the term “coalition of the willing” is also interesting. It’s perhaps intended to remind an American audience of a previous use of the same phrase: when the UK, Poland and other countries joined the US invasion of Iraq.
Russia has so far rejected the idea of any NATO or European peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Map of military personnel by country, based on NATO estimates.
Who’s in?
Sir Keir is being “quite coy about who the willing are”, Prof Clarke said.
The initiative is being led by the UK and France, so it seems a safe bet that both countries would be involved in the coalition.
Both have powerful militaries and the two nations are also the only countries in Europe with nuclear weapons.
“The important thing is that Britain and France are going to lead it because they are the two most important military powers in Europe,” Prof Clarke told Sky News.
It is notable that France’s President Emmanuel Macron originally raised the possibility of French troops in Ukraine last year, when he refused to rule it out.
An F-16 aircraft releases flares during a NATO exercise over Poland. Pic: Reuters
The Baltic states – Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia – are also likely to be involved, along with Finland, Prof Clarke says. All four countries are in NATO and share borders with Russia.
Italy could be involved too, Prof Clarke said, though Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has clashed with Mr Macron over the idea last week.
Not in Europe but a NATO member, Canada seems another potential contributor to the coalition of the willing.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when asked about a potential deployment of troops as part of a peacekeeping force, said yesterday: “Canada has looked at the ways it can best help and as I’ve said a few days ago, everything’s on the table.”
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The Ukraine summit: How the day unfolded
Who’s out?
Prof Clarke said Poland, Spain and Germany are not expected to send troops as peacekeepers, for different reasons.
Poland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and aims to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence this year, well above the NATO target.
But it also has a long border with Ukraine and Belarus and is concerned about its own security.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last month said: “We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to the territory of Ukraine.”
“We will… give logistical and political support to the countries that will possibly want to provide such guarantees in the future, such physical guarantees.”
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has been critical of plans to send troops to Ukraine
Spain’s foreign minister Jose Manuel Albares said last month that it was “too early at the moment to talk about deploying troops in Ukraine”, in remarks quoted by AFP.
He added: “There is no peace at the moment, and the effort has to be to achieve it as soon as possible.”
Spain’s government has faced a number of crises at home and spends around 1.28% of GDP on defence, well below the NATO 2% target.
As the biggest economy in Europe, Germany is a crucial part of any united response to the Ukraine war.
But a new government has not yet been formed after last month’s elections.
Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Pic: Reuters
Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has previously ruled out sending German troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.
While his government has provided substantial support to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, he has been seen by some as hesitant – for example resisting calls to send the vaunted Taurus missiles to Kyiv.
Friedrich Merz, who is expected to replace him as chancellor once the new government is in place, has taken a harder line, including on pledging Taurus missiles, so it remains to be seen if his attitude on deploying troops will also deviate from his predecessor.
‘Coalition of the willing’ is a curious term to revive
The use of the term “coalition of the willing” to describe the nations that agree to support an international force to help protect any ceasefire deal in Ukraine is interesting and notable.
It could perhaps be an attempt by Sir Keir Starmer to appeal to an American audience as this was the phrase the United States used for its “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq more than two decades ago.
That intervention ended in disaster, triggering a bloody insurgency and locking the US and its allies into a costly war, despite the successful toppling of Saddam Hussein.
But reviving the words “coalition of the willing” will – if nothing else – remind Washington that London was its biggest and strongest backer when it turned to allies to back its 2003 invasion.
What about America?
The elephant in the room is the biggest contributor to NATO: the US.
For example, of the 5,015 fighter and fighter ground-attack aircraft in NATO, 2,951 of them are from the US, and a further 1,108 are US-made, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies thinktank.
And America’s military is not just the largest in the world, but its ability to support troops in the field in terms of logistics is very hard to replace.
The coalition of the willing initiative seems designed to show President Donald Trump that Europe is serious about shouldering the defence burden and taking on more responsibility for the defence of Ukraine.
It should be pointed out that while the US is the single biggest donor to Kyiv, Europe as a whole has pledged more, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy thinktank.
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The hope seems to be that the coalition of the willing initiative would persuade the US as the world’s most powerful military to pledge support as a backstop, to underwrite the peace deal.
It’s unclear so far what Washington’s response will be, particularly after the fiery recent meeting between Mr Trump, vice president JD Vance and Mr Zelenskyy.
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