Connect with us

Published

on

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the focus has been on the evacuation effort, as people scramble to leave a country which has been grappling with war for two decades.

Western forces have now left the country and thoughts will turn to what a post-Western Afghanistan will look like, with the Taliban in control.

In the short-term, neighbours will be watching, hoping for stability and the Taliban will be hoping for international recognition as they seek to establish a government after 20 years in the wilderness.

Chinese delates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Bejing looks set to support the country
Image:
Chinese delegates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Beijing looks set to support the country

There will be much soul-searching in Washington, London and other NATO capitals as the fallout of the last few weeks is scrutinised.

But in the cities, mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the attention will turn to writing the history of the fallout of the Taliban’s victory.

Afghanistan, and the wider region, is a different place compared to 2001 when the US military intervention began after 9/11. The US had issued a threat to Pakistan at the time, telling it to sever ties with the Taliban or be treated like them by US forces.

It has never been clear whether Pakistan complied with this threat but Pakistan, like China and Iran, will be a key player in Afghanistan’s future simply because of their proximity.

More on Afghanistan

All of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries will react to the developments in the last week; Iran shares a long border with western Afghanistan; China has a comparatively small border to the northeast; while Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are to the north.

Could ISIS Khorasan cause a civil war?

Dr Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow at the University of Nottingham, suggests Afghanistan could be better without a US military presence in its territory.

“Over the last 20 years, the West has constantly indicated a complete lack of cultural and strategic intelligence. The West fails to understand that the Taliban came into existence to fight corruption, and it instead installed a government in a position that is known to be corrupt,” he told Sky News.

There is a concern from neighbouring countries that the Taliban could spread instability into its borders and Afghanistan slides back into a civil war.

Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, believes the US military has taken the “brunt of the instability and with the US departure there will be an onus on the region to take the stability”.

“Many of these neighbouring states are in antipathy with the US, not a single one hosts a US military base,” he told Sky News.

“In the medium-term, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbours all have the incentive to allow ISIS not to use Afghanistan as a breeding ground for extremism. They should work together; it would be smart for the Taliban by helping to not export the violence.”

The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short-term
Image:
The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short term

In varying degrees, Tehran and Beijing are each in dispute with Washington and even the government in Islamabad has grown weary of the US.

Prime Minister Imran Kahn was critical of the US last week when he said: “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind.” And Mr Puri suggests a “US failure is going to be a good thing” for the region.

But for all the neighbouring countries, the immediate worry could be one of civil war. ISIS Khorasan, who claimed the attack outside Kabul airport on 25 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and have a vested interest in stopping and disrupting the Taliban.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The US is reported to have killed 10 members of one family after it tried to stop suicide bombers attacking Kabul airport.

The ISIS-K attack killed 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members.

In response, the US launched an airstrike against what the US military said was a vehicle carrying three ISIL-KP members and another drone strike was carried out on 29 August – allegedly killing 10 members of a family, including children.

But Dr Ashraf believes the threat of a civil war caused by ISIS-K is low. He said: “I doubt there will be a civil war because ISIS-K is too small in number and too dispersed for anything that can be identified close to a civil war.

Evacuation flights resumed after 95 civilians and 13 US military personnel killed in two suicide bombings and gun attack.
Image:
Western forces have left Afghanistan after 20 years in the country

“The only part of Afghanistan where they have a significant rebellion involving fighting is in the Panjshir Valley and even that cannot be called a civil war.

“It would be interesting to see how the Taliban deal with ISIS. They potentially have the ability to deal with them more effectively than the previous government supported by the CIA and other western agencies. They will be keen to eliminate ISIS, but it is less certain as to how and when they can achieve that.”

While stability is uncertain, the Taliban should focus on its economy

In the short-term, the region’s focus, and that of the Taliban, will be on security but the new leaders will need to look at rebuilding the economy, something that will require corporation and support from its neighbours.

Dr Ashraf said: “The Taliban are hugely dependent on international support. What they are saying is our ‘country boys’ are great at facing and firing bullets, but they can’t do much anything else.

“That’s why they want a representative government and want to retain as many people as possible in government and elsewhere.

“What is different is they are a little more serious and savvier about the fact they won’t be able to live only on handouts, like the previous government.”

Given 20 years of war, it is going to be politically difficult for the western governments to be seen to be funding and supporting a Taliban-led government, even if they wanted to.

They could indirectly provide assistance through the significant work of the United Nations in the country but it is likely that most support comes from other sources in the region.

Pic: @DefenceHQ
Image:
In the last week, the focus has been on evacuating those on the ground. Soon it will turn to what a Taliban-led Afghanistan looks like Pic: @DefenceHQ

“They will want to invest any support on becoming self-sufficient. They could possibly have some investment from Qatar and other Middle Eastern governments for economic and social development,” Dr Ashraf adds.

Unlike in 2001, the region has greater corporation capability through the multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

All but one country, Iran, hold membership status to the SCO and at the latest summit in July 2021, the instability in Afghanistan was discussed.

Afghanistan has held observer status since 2012, and while formal membership may be delayed, it offers a diplomatic mechanism to coordinate a regional response to the ever-changing realities of Taliban rule.

ISIS-K have released a picture they claim is of one of the suicide bombers. The caption reads: 'Martyrdom photograph of Abdul Rahman al-Logari who carried out the martyrdom operation near Kabul airport'
Image:
ISIS-K, who carried out the attack outside the airport on 26 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and will seek to disrupt them

The SCO was formed in 1996 as a reaction to the civil war in Afghanistan and the dissolution of the USSR.

It offered ways to foster economic cooperation in the region for its founders China and Russia, as well as a way to track security threats.

While the SCO will look at how they can help the Taliban bring stability, Afghanistan’s neighbours will have their own bilateral responses.

China’s foreign minister met with representatives of the Taliban earlier this week and according to Dr Hongyi Lai, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham in China, Beijing will “see it as a positive development”.

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks about Afghanistan, from the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S. August 26, 2021. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Image:
From a Chinese point of view, aligning themselves with Afghanistan will allow them to use it as a bargaining chip on the global stage

“They [China] will be aware of the political and security challenges for them but it is an opportunity for China to play out its influence with the Taliban as a diplomatic tool with the US and Joe Biden,” he said.

“They will use it as a bargaining chip and initially the Taliban will need to gain international recognition with the help of China.

“Chinese mentality regarding stability is they will focus on the economic solution rather than government, which is postulated by the West.”

Follow the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker.

Dr Lai and Dr Ashraf both suggested mining rare metals could give the potential for both sides to corporate and build up Afghanistan’s economy.

Dr Ashraf adds that Afghanistan has the potential the develop its economy through agriculture, something that is relatively cost-effective and offsets the potential for radicalisation through the creation of jobs.

Mr Puri also suggests a potential bilateral trade deal between China and Kabul and Dr Ashraf is “confident initially it will be a bilateral” agreement with China.

The Taliban has long-established existing relationships with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – they have offices in Doha and both countries have supported the group financially in recent years.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

General Lord Richard Dannatt ponders the future for Afghanistan now that the Taliban have gained control.

Neither Doha nor Abu Dhabi will want the Taliban to fall into old habits and use the drug trade as a way to survive financially and Dr Ashraf suggests that this will stop senior Taliban officials from investing in the trade and potentially risk important funding now 80% of aid has been cut by the United States.

While it isn’t clear yet whether it is bilateral or multilateral ties that bind Afghanistan to its neighbours, it is evident regional cooperation without western involvement is much more developed now than it was 20 years ago.

Afghanistan’s neighbouring states will be initially looking to shore up their border against any threat of the instability spilling over but once the dust has settled, they will seek to work together to minimise the impact of the US departure.

Continue Reading

World

COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

Published

on

By

COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.

The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.

Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.

It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.

But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.

Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.

More from Science, Climate & Tech

“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”

The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.

The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.

A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.

Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.

They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks

The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.

A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.

A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.

Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.

Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.

‘Not everything we wanted’

👉 Tap here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts 👈

The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.

“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.

“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.

“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)
Image:
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP

Read more:
Azerbaijan president hails oil and gas as ‘gift from God’
UN climate summits ‘no longer fit for purpose’

The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.

“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”

Continue Reading

World

At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

Published

on

By

At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.

Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.

The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.

The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut, where four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike
Image:
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut

Map of Lebanon and Israel

The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.

At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.

A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.

The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.

Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.

The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.

Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.

It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

Read more:
No 10 indicates Netanyahu would be arrested
‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike

Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.

Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.

The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.

The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.

US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.

Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.

Continue Reading

World

Mossad investigating disappearance of rabbi in Abu Dhabi in potential terror incident, Israeli PM’s office says

Published

on

By

Mossad investigating disappearance of rabbi in Abu Dhabi in potential terror incident, Israeli PM's office says

Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is investigating the disappearance of a rabbi in Abu Dhabi after receiving information indicating a “terrorist incident”, the Israeli prime minister’s office has said.

Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan citizen, has been missing since Thursday.

Mr Kogan is the Chabad representative in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The Israeli prime minister’s office said the country’s security and intelligence services have been investigating in Abu Dhabi.

It said: “Mossad has updated that since his disappearance, and given information indicating that this is a terrorist incident, an active investigation has been going on in the country.

“Israeli security and intelligence organisations, concerned for Kogan’s safety and wellbeing, have been working tirelessly on this case.”

In a travel advisory, it warned Israelis: “In major cities, or locations where demonstrations or protests are taking place, conceal anything that could identify you as Israeli or Jewish.”

Read more:
Hamas claims Israeli hostage killed in IDF attack on Gaza
No 10 indicates Netanyahu would be arrested

The Israeli government’s travel advisory service warns its citizens to “avoid unnecessary travel” to the UAE as “there is terrorist activity in the UAE, which constitutes a real risk to Israelis who are staying/visiting in the country”.

The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020, a deal it has honoured throughout the Israel-Hamas war and Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon.

The Chabad movement is a Hasidic branch of Judaism, according to Chabad Lubavitch UK.

The organisation describes the work of emissaries like Zvi Kogan as “explaining, shedding light, dispelling myths, countering stereotypes” about Judaism.

Continue Reading

Trending