As the West leaves Afghanistan, Kabul’s neighbours will need to work with the Taliban to bring stability to the region
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the focus has been on the evacuation effort, as people scramble to leave a country which has been grappling with war for two decades.
Western forces have now left the country and thoughts will turn to what a post-Western Afghanistan will look like, with the Taliban in control.
In the short-term, neighbours will be watching, hoping for stability and the Taliban will be hoping for international recognition as they seek to establish a government after 20 years in the wilderness.
Chinese delegates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Beijing looks set to support the country
There will be much soul-searching in Washington, London and other NATO capitals as the fallout of the last few weeks is scrutinised.
But in the cities, mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the attention will turn to writing the history of the fallout of the Taliban’s victory.
Afghanistan, and the wider region, is a different place compared to 2001 when the US military intervention began after 9/11. The US had issued a threat to Pakistan at the time, telling it to sever ties with the Taliban or be treated like them by US forces.
It has never been clear whether Pakistan complied with this threat but Pakistan, like China and Iran, will be a key player in Afghanistan’s future simply because of their proximity.
All of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries will react to the developments in the last week; Iran shares a long border with western Afghanistan; China has a comparatively small border to the northeast; while Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are to the north.
Could ISIS Khorasan cause a civil war?
Dr Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow at the University of Nottingham, suggests Afghanistan could be better without a US military presence in its territory.
“Over the last 20 years, the West has constantly indicated a complete lack of cultural and strategic intelligence. The West fails to understand that the Taliban came into existence to fight corruption, and it instead installed a government in a position that is known to be corrupt,” he told Sky News.
There is a concern from neighbouring countries that the Taliban could spread instability into its borders and Afghanistan slides back into a civil war.
Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, believes the US military has taken the “brunt of the instability and with the US departure there will be an onus on the region to take the stability”.
“Many of these neighbouring states are in antipathy with the US, not a single one hosts a US military base,” he told Sky News.
“In the medium-term, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbours all have the incentive to allow ISIS not to use Afghanistan as a breeding ground for extremism. They should work together; it would be smart for the Taliban by helping to not export the violence.”
The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short term
In varying degrees, Tehran and Beijing are each in dispute with Washington and even the government in Islamabad has grown weary of the US.
Prime Minister Imran Kahn was critical of the US last week when he said: “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind.” And Mr Puri suggests a “US failure is going to be a good thing” for the region.
But for all the neighbouring countries, the immediate worry could be one of civil war. ISIS Khorasan, who claimed the attack outside Kabul airport on 25 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and have a vested interest in stopping and disrupting the Taliban.
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The US is reported to have killed 10 members of one family after it tried to stop suicide bombers attacking Kabul airport.
The ISIS-K attack killed 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members.
In response, the US launched an airstrike against what the US military said was a vehicle carrying three ISIL-KP members and another drone strike was carried out on 29 August – allegedly killing 10 members of a family, including children.
But Dr Ashraf believes the threat of a civil war caused by ISIS-K is low. He said: “I doubt there will be a civil war because ISIS-K is too small in number and too dispersed for anything that can be identified close to a civil war.
Western forces have left Afghanistan after 20 years in the country
“The only part of Afghanistan where they have a significant rebellion involving fighting is in the Panjshir Valley and even that cannot be called a civil war.
“It would be interesting to see how the Taliban deal with ISIS. They potentially have the ability to deal with them more effectively than the previous government supported by the CIA and other western agencies. They will be keen to eliminate ISIS, but it is less certain as to how and when they can achieve that.”
While stability is uncertain, the Taliban should focus on its economy
In the short-term, the region’s focus, and that of the Taliban, will be on security but the new leaders will need to look at rebuilding the economy, something that will require corporation and support from its neighbours.
Dr Ashraf said: “The Taliban are hugely dependent on international support. What they are saying is our ‘country boys’ are great at facing and firing bullets, but they can’t do much anything else.
“That’s why they want a representative government and want to retain as many people as possible in government and elsewhere.
“What is different is they are a little more serious and savvier about the fact they won’t be able to live only on handouts, like the previous government.”
Given 20 years of war, it is going to be politically difficult for the western governments to be seen to be funding and supporting a Taliban-led government, even if they wanted to.
They could indirectly provide assistance through the significant work of the United Nations in the country but it is likely that most support comes from other sources in the region.
In the last week, the focus has been on evacuating those on the ground. Soon it will turn to what a Taliban-led Afghanistan looks like Pic: @DefenceHQ
“They will want to invest any support on becoming self-sufficient. They could possibly have some investment from Qatar and other Middle Eastern governments for economic and social development,” Dr Ashraf adds.
Unlike in 2001, the region has greater corporation capability through the multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
All but one country, Iran, hold membership status to the SCO and at the latest summit in July 2021, the instability in Afghanistan was discussed.
Afghanistan has held observer status since 2012, and while formal membership may be delayed, it offers a diplomatic mechanism to coordinate a regional response to the ever-changing realities of Taliban rule.
ISIS-K, who carried out the attack outside the airport on 26 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and will seek to disrupt them
The SCO was formed in 1996 as a reaction to the civil war in Afghanistan and the dissolution of the USSR.
It offered ways to foster economic cooperation in the region for its founders China and Russia, as well as a way to track security threats.
While the SCO will look at how they can help the Taliban bring stability, Afghanistan’s neighbours will have their own bilateral responses.
China’s foreign minister met with representatives of the Taliban earlier this week and according to Dr Hongyi Lai, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham in China, Beijing will “see it as a positive development”.
From a Chinese point of view, aligning themselves with Afghanistan will allow them to use it as a bargaining chip on the global stage
“They [China] will be aware of the political and security challenges for them but it is an opportunity for China to play out its influence with the Taliban as a diplomatic tool with the US and Joe Biden,” he said.
“They will use it as a bargaining chip and initially the Taliban will need to gain international recognition with the help of China.
“Chinese mentality regarding stability is they will focus on the economic solution rather than government, which is postulated by the West.”
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Dr Lai and Dr Ashraf both suggested mining rare metals could give the potential for both sides to corporate and build up Afghanistan’s economy.
Dr Ashraf adds that Afghanistan has the potential the develop its economy through agriculture, something that is relatively cost-effective and offsets the potential for radicalisation through the creation of jobs.
Mr Puri also suggests a potential bilateral trade deal between China and Kabul and Dr Ashraf is “confident initially it will be a bilateral” agreement with China.
The Taliban has long-established existing relationships with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – they have offices in Doha and both countries have supported the group financially in recent years.
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General Lord Richard Dannatt ponders the future for Afghanistan now that the Taliban have gained control.
Neither Doha nor Abu Dhabi will want the Taliban to fall into old habits and use the drug trade as a way to survive financially and Dr Ashraf suggests that this will stop senior Taliban officials from investing in the trade and potentially risk important funding now 80% of aid has been cut by the United States.
While it isn’t clear yet whether it is bilateral or multilateral ties that bind Afghanistan to its neighbours, it is evident regional cooperation without western involvement is much more developed now than it was 20 years ago.
Afghanistan’s neighbouring states will be initially looking to shore up their border against any threat of the instability spilling over but once the dust has settled, they will seek to work together to minimise the impact of the US departure.
An audacious Ukrainian drone attack against multiple airbases across Russia is a humiliating security breach for Vladimir Putin that will doubtless trigger a furious response.
Pro-Kremlin bloggers have described the drone assault – which Ukrainian security sources said hit more than 40 Russian warplanes – as “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” in reference to the Japanese attack against the US in 1941 that prompted Washington to enter the Second World War.
Ukraine war latest: Russia accuses Kyiv of ‘terrorist attack’
The Ukrainian operation – which used small drones smuggled into Russia, hidden in mobile sheds and launched off the back of trucks – also demonstrated how technology and imagination have transformed the battlefield, enabling Ukraine to seriously hurt its far more powerful opponent.
Moscow will have to retaliate, with speculation already appearing online about whether President Putin will again threaten the use of nuclear weapons.
“We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on their Pearl Harbor or even harsher,” military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on his Telegram channel.
Codenamed ‘Spider’s Web’, the mission on Sunday was the culmination of one and a half years of planning, according to a security source.
In that time, Ukraine’s secret service smuggled first-person view (FPV) drones into Russia, sources with knowledge of the operation said.
Flat-pack, garden-office style sheds were also secretly transported into the country.
The drones were hidden in truck containers. Pic: SBU Security Service
The oblong sheds were then built and drones were hidden inside, before the containers were put on the back of trucks and driven to within range of their respective targets.
At a chosen time, doors on the roofs of the huts were opened remotely and the drones were flown out. Each was armed with a bomb that was flown into the airfields, with videos released by the security service that purportedly showed them blasting into Russian aircraft.
These drones were used to destroy Russian bomber aircraft. Pic: SBU Security Service
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Among the targets were Tu-95 and Tu-22 bomber aircraft that can launch cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian side. An A-50 airborne early warning aircraft was also allegedly hit. This is a valuable platform that is used to command and control operations.
The use of such simple technology to destroy multi-million-pound aircraft will be watched with concern by governments around the world.
Suddenly, every single military base, airfield and warship will appear that little bit more vulnerable if any truck nearby could be loaded with killer drones.
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The most immediate focus, though, will be on how Mr Putin responds.
Previous attacks by Ukraine inside Russia have triggered retaliatory strikes and increasingly threatening rhetoric from the Kremlin.
But this latest operation is one of the biggest and most significant, and comes on the eve of a new round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv that are meant to take place in Turkey. It is not clear if that will still happen.
US President Donald Trump has been pushing for the two sides to make peace but Russia has only escalated its war.
Ukraine clearly felt it had nothing to lose but to also go on the attack.
World
Eight injured in petrol bomb and ‘flamethrower’ attack at rally for Hamas-held hostages in Colorado
Eight people have been injured at a US rally for Israeli hostages after they were attacked by a man with a makeshift flamethrower and petrol bombs.
A group of people in Boulder, Colorado, were holding a regular demonstration to raise awareness of Hamas-held hostages in Gaza when they were allegedly targeted by a man who shouted “Free Palestine” on Sunday. The suspect was arrested at the scene.
Four women and four men aged between 52 and 88 were injured and transported to hospitals, Boulder police said.
The force said the injuries ranged from “very serious” to “more minor”.
Some of the victims were airlifted to hospital.
Authorities had earlier put the count of the injured at six and said at least one of them was in a critical condition.
Mohamed Soliman, 45, was holding several bottles
The FBI says the attack was a targeted “act of terrorism” and named the suspect as 45-year-old Mohamed Soliman from El Paso County, Colorado.
He was also taken to hospital after the alleged attack.
Eyewitnesses said the suspect threw Molotov cocktails, an improvised bomb made from a bottle filled with petrol and stuffed with a piece of cloth to use as a fuse, into people attending the demonstration.
He also used a “makeshift flamethrower” during the attack, according to Mark Michalek, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Denver field office.
Two senior law enforcement officials told Sky News’ US partner network that Soliman is an Egyptian national who seemingly acted alone. They said he has no previous significant contact with law enforcement.
The ground appeared burned as the man was detained
People doused one of the victims with water as police arrested the suspect
The White House described the suspect as an “illegal alien” who had received a work permit under the Biden administration despite overstaying a tourist visa.
A large part of downtown Boulder was cordoned off as sniffer dogs and the bomb squad searched for potential devices.
Police chief Steve Redfearn said the attack happened around 1.26pm on Sunday and that initial reports were that “people were being set on fire”.
Phone footage showed smoke rising from a distance
“When we arrived we encountered multiple victims that were injured, with injuries consistent with burns,” Mr Redfearn told the media.
The police chief also said he did not believe anyone else was involved.
“We’re fairly confident we have the lone suspect in custody,” he said.
The suspect is detained in Colorado. Pic: Reuters
Boulder’s police chief said the attack happened as a “group of pro-Israel people” were peacefully demonstrating.
The walk is held regularly by a volunteer group called Run For Their Lives, which aims to raise awareness of the hostages who remain in Gaza.
Video from the scene showed a bare-chested man shouting and clutching two bottles after the attack.
Other footage showed him being held down and arrested by police as people doused one of the victims with water.
Nearby there appears to be a large black burn mark on the ground.
Law enforcement used armoured suits as they searched for bombs. Pic: AP
Brooke Coffman, a 19-year-old student, described seeing four women on the ground with burns on their legs. She said one appeared badly burned on most of her body and had been wrapped in a flag.
She described seeing a man whom she presumed to be the attacker standing in the courtyard shirtless, holding a glass
bottle of clear liquid and shouting.
“Everybody is yelling, ‘get water, get water,'” Ms Coffman said.
Lady on fire ‘from head to toe’
Another eyewitness, who did not give his name, said: “It was very strange to just hear a crash on the ground of a bottle breaking and then it sounded like a boom and then people started yelling and screaming.
“But I saw fire, I saw people screaming and crying and tripping and I saw the attacker – he had three Molotov cocktails.
“One of them he threw inside a group and one lady lit on fire from head to toe and then the other four people were also injured in the fire, but not as bad as the first one.”
A bomb disposal robot and sniffer dogs were also at the scene. Pic: AP
The eyewitness continued: “The attacker came out from the bushes and the trees… he threw another cocktail, and on the second one he lit himself on fire – I imagine accidentally.
“He seemed to have a bullet proof vest on, or some kind of vest, and then a shirt underneath it.
“And after he lit himself on fire he took off the vest and the shirt and he was shirtless.
“But he still had his Molotov cocktails in his hands ready to use them… ready to throw them and explode them on people.”
Lynn Segal, another eyewitness, said: “These shoots of fire, linear, about 20 feet long, spears of fire, two of them at least, came across right into the group, about 15 feet from me.”
The 72-year-old said two neighbours of hers, a husband and wife in their 80s, were at the demonstration. She added that the wife was one of the victims and appeared to be the most seriously injured.
“They’re both elders in their 80s, and you can’t take something like this assault to your body as easily as someone younger.”
Pic: AP
Ms Segal, who was wearing a “Free Palestine” T-shirt, said she watches the demonstrations to “try and listen” to what the volunteers are “talking about” because she is concerned about the hostages.
She added that she is concerned the attack will “divide this community”.
Another eyewitness told MSNBC that he saw the suspect “lighting people on fire while spraying gasoline on them”.
Brian, who is himself Jewish and asked that his last name not be made public, added that he saw victims “having their skin melt off their bodies”.
A statement from Boulder’s Jewish community said “an incendiary device was thrown at walkers at the Run for Their Lives walk on Pearl Street as they were raising awareness for the hostages still held in Gaza”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement this morning: “This attack was aimed against peaceful people who wished to express their solidarity with the hostages held by Hamas, simply because they were Jews.
“I trust the United States authorities to prosecute the cold blood perpetrator to the fullest extent of the law and do everything possible to prevent future attacks against innocent civilians.
“The antisemitic attacks around the world are a direct result of blood libels against the Jewish state and people, and this must be stopped.”
US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a prominent Jewish Democrat , said it was an antisemitic attack.
“This is horrifying, and this cannot continue. We must stand up to antisemitism,” he said on X.
A man pinned a sticker of the Israeli flag to a post near the scene. Pic: Reuters
Boulder is a university city of about 105,000 people on the northwest edge of Denver, in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.
The attack follows the arrest of a Chicago-born man in the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy employees in Washington DC two weeks ago.
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Tensions are simmering in the US over Israel’s war in Gaza.
There has been an increase in antisemitic hate crime, as well as moves by some supporters of Israel to brand pro-Palestinian protests as antisemitic.
President Trump’s administration has detained protesters without charge and pulled funding from elite universities that have permitted such demonstrations.
Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from Donald Trump, has won Poland’s presidential election.
Mr Nawrocki secured 50.89% of votes while his opponent, Liberal pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, took 49.11%.
Earlier, an exit poll called the result the other way around – with both men declaring victory.
Mr Nawrocki had positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, aligning himself with US conservatives, including Mr Trump, and showing scepticism towards the EU.
Rafal Trzaskowski in Warsaw after the exit poll announcement. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, Mr Trzaskowski, 53, had promised to ease abortion restrictions, introduce civil partnerships for LGBT couples and promote constructive ties with European partners.
The vote has been closely watched in neighbouring Ukraine as well as in Russia, the European Union and the United States – with the election being framed as Poland choosing between more liberal norms or a more nationalist path.
Karol Nawrocki addresses his supporters. Pic: AP
This runoff follows a tightly-contested first round of voting in May, which saw Mr Trzaskowski win just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.
Mr Nawrocki won the vote despite discussions about his past dominating the last days of the campaign – from questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner to an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls.
“Everything was on a knife edge,” said 32-year-old IT specialist Patryk Marek. “Feelings are for sure mixed for this moment. But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters.”
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Outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke to Sky News earlier this year
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Poland’s new president will have significant influence over whether the country’s centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.
Led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the government had struggled to pass legislation with Poland’s previous president in power and may find the same is true once Mr Nawrocki is sworn in.
Like his predecessor, Mr Nawrocki is expected to block any attempts by the government to liberalise abortion or reform the judiciary.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was convinced the EU could continue its “very good cooperation” with Poland.
“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home,” she said.
There has been some discussion about whether a win for Mr Nawrocki could lead to fresh elections in Poland.
Jacek Sasin, a politician for the opposition Law and Justice party, said: “The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won.”
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