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Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.

Article courtesy of NREL.

One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.

The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.

All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.

Does any other resource like the ATB exist?

The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.

How does NREL build the data each year?

We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.

Who are the primary ATB users?

The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.

What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?

We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.

Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.

How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?

The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.

ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.

In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.

In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?

Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.

Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.

Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?

This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.

For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.

We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.

What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?

Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.

Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?

The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.

We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.

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Fintechs like Block and PayPal are battling like never before to be your all-in-one online bank

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Fintechs like Block and PayPal are battling like never before to be your all-in-one online bank

Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter Inc., speaks during the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, Florida, U.S., on Friday, June 4, 2021.

Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Jack Dorsey’s Block got started as Square, offering small businesses a simple way to accept payments via smartphone. Affirm began as an online lender, giving consumers more affordable credit options for retail purchases. PayPal upended finance more than 25 years ago by letting businesses accept online payments.

The three fintechs, which were each launched by tech luminaries in different eras of Silicon Valley history, are increasingly converging as they seek to become virtual all-in-one banks. In their latest earnings reports this month, their lofty ambitions became more clear than ever.

Block was the last of the three to report, and the high-level numbers were troubling. Earnings and revenue missed estimates, sending the stock down 18%, its steepest drop in five years. But to hear Dorsey discuss the results, Block is successfully implementing a strategy of offering consumers the ability to pay businesses by smartphone, send money to friends through Cash App, and access credit and debit services while also getting more ways to invest in bitcoin.

In 2024, we expanded Square from a payments tool into a full commerce platform, enhanced Cash App’s financial services offerings, and restructured our organization,” Dorsey said on Block’s earnings call on Thursday after the bell.

Block and an expanding roster of fintech rivals have all come to see that their moats aren’t strong enough in their core markets to keep the competition away, and that the path to growth is through a diverse set of financial services traditionally offered by banks. They’re playing to an audience of digital-first consumers who either didn’t grow up using a brick-and-mortar bank or realized at an early age that they had no need to ever set foot in a physical branch, or to meet with a loan officer or customer service rep.

“Longer term, we see a significant opportunity to grow actives, particularly among that digital-native audience like Millennial and Gen Z,” Block CFO Amrita Ahuja said on the earnings call.

Block shares drop after reporting earnings and revenue miss

As part of its expansion, Block has encroached on Affirm’s turf, with an increasing focus on buy now, pay later (BNPL) offerings that it picked up in its $29 billion purchase of Afterpay, which closed in early 2022. Block’s market share in BNPL increased by one point to 19%, while Affirm held its position at 17%, according to a recent report from Mizuho. Both companies are outperforming Klarna in BNPL, the report said.

Block’s BNPL play is now tied into Cash App, with an integration activated this week that gives users another way to make purchases through a single app. With Cash App monthly active users stagnating at 57 million for the last few quarters, the company is focused on engagement rather than rapid user acquisition.

“We think that there is significant opportunity for growth longer term, but there are some deliberate decisions we’ve made as part of our banker-based strategy in the near term” that have kept user numbers from increasing, Ahuja said. “This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base.”

Compared to Block, Wall Street had a very different reaction to Affirm’s earnings earlier this month, pushing the stock up 22% after the company’s results sailed past estimates.

Affirm founder and CEO Max Levchin, who was previously a co-founder of PayPal, built his company with the promise of giving consumers lower-cost and easy-to-tap intstallment loans for purchases like electronics, jewelry and travel.

The BNPL battlefront

Watch CNBC's full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

Under the leadership of CEO Alex Chriss, who took over the company in September 2023, PayPal is in the midst of a turnaround that involves working to better monetize products like Braintree and Venmo and joining the world of physical commerce with a debit card inside its mobile app.

Investors responded positively in 2024, pushing the stock up almost 40% after a brutal few years. But the stock dropped 13% after its earnings report, even as profit and revenue were better than expected. PayPal’s total payment volume for the quarter hit $437.8 billion, slightly below projections, while transaction margins rose to 47% from 45.8% — a sign of improving profitability.

One of Chriss’ big pushes is to get more out of Venmo, which has long been a popular way for friends to pay each other but hasn’t been a big hit with businesses. Venmo’s total payment volume in the quarter rose 10% year-over-year, with increased adoption at DoorDash, Starbucks, and Ticketmaster.

PayPal is also promoting Venmo’s debit card and “Pay With Venmo,” which saw 30% and 20% monthly active growth in 2024, respectively. The company is introducing new services to improve merchant retention, including its Fastlane one-click checkout feature, designed to compete with Apple Pay and Shopify’s Shop Pay.

Last year, the company launched PayPal Everywhere, a cashback-driven initiative designed to boost engagement within its mobile app. Chriss said on the earnings call that it’s “driving significant increases in debit card adoption and opening new categories of spend.”

As with virtually all financial services products, the new offerings from Block, Affirm and PayPal are designed to produce growth but not at the expense of profit. Banks operate at low margins, in large part because there’s so much competition for lower-priced loans and better cash-back options. There’s also all the costs associated with underwriting and compliance.

That’s the environment in which fintechs have to operate, though without the costs of running a network of physical branches.

Levchin talks about helping customers spend less, not more. And Block acknowledges the need for hefty investments to reach the company’s desired outcome.

“This is a part of our continuous enhancements to drive healthy customer engagement as we bank our base,” Ahuja said. “We’ve made investments in critical areas like compliance, support and risk. And as we’ve done that, we’ve progressed more of our actives through our identity verification process, which in turn, unlocks greater access to those actives to our full suite of financial tools.”

WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

Watch CNBC's full interview with PayPal CEO Alex Chriss

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Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

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Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings

The Trump administration is shutting down EV chargers at all federal government buildings and is also expected to sell off the General Services Administration‘s (GSA) newly bought EVs.

GSA, which manages all federal government-owned buildings, also operates the federal buildings’ EV chargers. Federally owned EVs and federal employee-owned personal EVs are charged on those 8,000 charging ports.

The Verge reports it’s been told by a source that plans will be officially announced internally next week, and it’s seen an email that GSA has already sent to regional offices about the plans:

“As GSA has worked to align with the current administration, we have received direction that all GSA-owned charging stations are not mission-critical.”

The GSA is working on the timing of canceling current network contracts that keep the EV chargers operational. Once those contracts are canceled, the stations will be taken out of service and “turned off at the breaker,” the email reads. Other chargers will be turned off starting next week.

“Neither Government Owned Vehicles nor Privately Owned Vehicles will be able to charge at these charging stations once they’re out of service.” 

Colorado Public Radio first reported yesterday that it had seen the email that was sent to the Denver Federal Center, which has 22 EV charging stations at 11 locations.

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The Trump/Elon Musk administration has taken the GSA’s fleet electrification webpage offline entirely. (An archived version is available here.)

The Verge‘s source also said that the GSA will offload the EVs it bought during the Biden administration, although it’s unknown whether they’ll be sold or stored.

Read more: Trump just canceled the federal NEVI EV charger program


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Hackers steal $1.5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

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Hackers steal .5 billion from exchange Bybit in biggest-ever crypto heist

Ben Zhou, chief executive officer of ByBit, during the Token2049 conference in Singapore, on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023. 

Joseph Nair | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bybit, a major cryptocurrency exchange, has been hacked to the tune of $1.5 billion in digital assets, in what’s estimated to be the largest crypto heist in history.

The attack compromised Bybit’s cold wallet, an offline storage system designed for security. The stolen funds, primarily in ether, were quickly transferred across multiple wallets and liquidated through various platforms.

“Please rest assured that all other cold wallets are secure,” Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, posted on X. “All withdrawals are NORMAL.”

Blockchain analysis firms, including Elliptic and Arkham Intelligence, traced the stolen crypto as it was moved to various accounts and swiftly offloaded. The hack far surpasses previous thefts in the sector, according to Elliptic. That includes the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021 and the $570 million drained from Binance in 2022.

Analysts at Elliptic later linked the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, a state-sponsored hacking collective notorious for siphoning billions of dollars from the cryptocurrency industry. The group is known for exploiting security vulnerabilities to finance North Korea’s regime, often using sophisticated laundering methods to obscure the flow of funds.

“We’ve labelled the thief’s addresses in our software, to help to prevent these funds from being cashed-out through any other exchanges,” said Tom Robinson, chief scientist at Elliptic, in an email.

The breach immediately triggered a rush of withdrawals from Bybit as users feared potential insolvency. Zhou said outflows had stabilized. To reassure customers, he announced that Bybit had secured a bridge loan from undisclosed partners to cover any unrecoverable losses and maintain operations.

The Lazarus Group’s history of targeting crypto platforms dates back to 2017, when the group infiltrated four South Korean exchanges and stole $200 million worth of bitcoin. As law enforcement agencies and crypto tracking firms work to trace the stolen assets, industry experts warn that large-scale thefts remain a fundamental risk.

“The more difficult we make it to benefit from crimes such as this, the less frequently they will take place,” Elliptic’s Robinson wrote in a post.

WATCH: Crypto stocks plunge

Crypto stocks plunge despite SEC dropping suit against Coinbase

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