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Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.

Article courtesy of NREL.

One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.

The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.

All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.

Does any other resource like the ATB exist?

The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.

How does NREL build the data each year?

We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.

Who are the primary ATB users?

The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.

What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?

We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.

Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.

How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?

The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.

ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.

In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.

In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?

Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.

Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.

Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?

This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.

For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.

We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.

What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?

Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.

Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?

The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.

We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.

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From $189 a month: 5 of the best EV lease deals in December 

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From 9 a month: 5 of the best EV lease deals in December 

Yes, Virginia, there are still great EV lease deals to be had in December. Hyundai continues to offer EV leases for under $200 a month, and the BMW i4 can be leased for the same price it was when the federal tax credit was still in effect. With 2025 models disappearing fast, this might be your last shot to snag a year-end lease deal on an EV. Check out the standouts below.

Hyundai-discounting-EVs
Hyundai IONIQ 6 (Source: Hyundai)

2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 lease from $189/month

The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 remains a fantastic deal: the IONIQ 6 SE Standard Range can be leased from $189 per month for 24 months with a $3,999 due at signing (12,000 miles per year). Its effective cost is just $356, and this month’s IONIQ 6 SE lease includes $13,000 in lease cash that you can’t get elsewhere. The offer is good until January 2.

Our friends at CarsDirect report that the SEL trim is actually a better deal at $239 with $3,999 at signing, with an effective cost of $406. Even though its MSRP is over $7,700 higher than the SE, it’s just $50 more a month to lease. The SE Standard Range has a range of 240 miles, whereas other styles have a range of up to 342.

As usual, offers vary according to location, and this is a regional offer based in California.

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Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Hyundai IONIQ 6 in stock. –trusted affiliate link

Hyundai-IONIQ-5-lease-deal
Photo: Hyundai

2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 lease from $189/month

Believe it or not, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 SE Standard Range RWD, which starts at $44,200, can still be leased through January 2 for $189 a month for 36 months (10,000 miles per year) with $3,999 due at signing. That works out to an effective monthly cost of about $300.

The IONIQ 5 SE RWD Standard Range offers an EPA-estimated 245 miles of range, and this particular offer is available in the Los Angeles and greater California metro areas (I’ve seen it at dealers in Carlsbad and Santa Monica, for example). And if you’re tempted by an upgrade, the SEL RWD trim is just $50 more per month under the same terms. 

Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Hyundai IONIQ 5 in stock. –trusted affiliate link

Subaru-EV-plans
2026 Subaru Solterra EV (Source: Subaru)

2026 Subaru Solterra 5 lease from $299/month

In several regions, the 2026 Subaru Solterra Premium can be leased for $299 per month for 36 months, with a down payment of $2,799 due at signing, resulting in an effective monthly cost of $377. That makes it $95 per month cheaper to lease than a 2026 Toyota bZ, which is $472. (These figures are for California.)

A $500 loyalty discount is available to returning lessees. It doesn’t require a trade-in and can be transferred to household members. If you factor in the loyalty discount, the Solterra’s effective cost drops to $363. The offer ends January 2.

Subaru’s advertised lease prices are based on 10,000 miles a year, but that’s changeable. However, a larger mileage allowance will lower the EV’s residual value, making it more expensive.

Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Subaru Solterra in stock. –trusted affiliate link

Ford Mustang Mach-e
2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E (Source: Ford)

2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E from $219/month

The 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E can still be leased for $219 per month for 24 months with a $4,499 due at signing (10,500 miles per year) until January 5. In this configuration, the Mach-E has a range of up to 300 miles.

This is a regional offer for California, but the great deal isn’t limited to just that state. The example includes a total of $8,750 in lease cash; however, the catch is that if you opt for the lease cash, you have to decline the free home charger with installation or Ford’s $2,000 public charging credit.

Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Ford Mustang Mach-E in stock. –trusted affiliate link

Photo: BMW

2025 BMW i4 from $399/month

Remarkably, the 2025 BMW i4 is still leasing for the same price as it was when the federal tax credit was still in effect. In many regions, the eDrive40 can be leased for $399 for 36 months with $4,999 due at signing (10,000 miles per year). Its effective cost is just $538 per month, which is impressive when you consider that the i4’s retail price is over $60,000.

The offer, available until January 2, includes a $7,500 lease credit, and a $1,000 loyalty discount is also available for returning lessees. With the loyalty bonus, the i4’s effective monthly cost could be as low as $510.

In this configuration, the i4 has an EPA-estimated range of 318 miles. As before, BMW’s lease includes two years or 1,000 kWh of free charging with Electrify America.

Click here to find a local dealer that may have the BMW i4 in stock. –trusted affiliate link


The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them. 

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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The Kia EV5 is now on sale as one of Canada’s most affordable electric SUVs

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The Kia EV5 is now on sale as one of Canada's most affordable electric SUVs

Kia now has one of the most affordable electric SUVs in Canada. The EV5 is now on sale, starting at $43,495 CAD.

Kia opens EV5 orders in Canada

The EV5 is the electric SUV we want in the US, but we will likely never see it. After opening online orders on December 4, Kia revealed prices for the entire 2027 EV5 lineup.

Surprisingly, buyers can choose from nine trims, with prices ranging from $43,495 CAD for the base Light model to $61,495 CAD for the flagship AWD GT-Line Limited edition.

Outside of the Light trim, all EV5 variants are offered with front-wheel or all-wheel drive. Upgrading to AWD costs an extra $2,500 CAD.

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Likewise, all EV5 trims, except the Light variant, are powered by an 81.4 kWh battery, providing up to 460 km (285 miles) of driving range. The entry-level Light uses a 60.4 kWh battery, good for a driving range of up to 335 km (208 miles).

All EV5 models come with a built-in NACS port, nearly 30″ of screen space in a curved panoramic display, heated front seats, and Kia Connect with OTA updates.

The interior features Kia’s new Connect Car Navigation (CCNC) infotainment system with dual 12.3″ driver display and touchscreen navigation screens, plus a 5″ climate control screen. The setup includes wireless Android Auto and Apple CarPlay capabilities.

Kia grouped the EV5 trims into tiers based on what buyers are looking for. As expected, the Light FWD trim is the best value for your money.

For those looking for a little more driving range, the Wind FWD offers up to 460 km range, while the Wind AWD is built for Canada’s harsh winters. Both include a heat pump as standard.

Kia-EV5-prices-Canada
The Kia EV5 (Source: Kia)

2027 Kia EV5 prices and range by trim

Kia said the EV5 Land Rover trim is the best option if you’re looking for a little more out of the interior. The Land Rover trim adds a memory function to the driver’s seat, a heated steering wheel, a panoramic sunroof, a smart power tailgate, and 19″ wheels.

And then there’s the EV5 GT-Line, for those looking for added performance, a sporty new look inside and out, and driver-assistance features like lane-change assist.

2027 Kia EV5 trim Starting Price (CAD) (FWD/AWD) Battery Target Range (FWD/ AWD) Selling Points
Light traction $43,495 60.4 kWh 335 km Entry-level price, standard battery life
Wind $47,495 / $49,995 81.4 kWh 460 km / 415 km Long-life battery, heat pump
Land $49,995 / $52,495 81.4 kWh 460 km / 415 km Panoramic roof, smart tailgate, V2L
GT-Line $55,495 / $57,995 81.4 kWh 460 km / 410 km HDA2, FCA 2, ventilated seats, sporty style
GT-Line Limited $58,995 / $61,495 81.4 kWh 460 km / 410 km Head-up display, RSPA 2, Harman Kardon, digital key
Kia EV5 prices and range by trim in Canada

The EV5 is now available to order in Canada, outside of the entry-level FWD Light variant, which is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026.

Despite the wait, Kia claimed the 2027 EV5 is going on sale as “Canada’s most affordable electric SUV,” starting $43,495.

For those in the US, don’t get your hopes up. Kia said the EV5 will be sold exclusively in Canada for the North American market.

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If you think Trump will bring tiny kei cars to the US, you might be as dumb as he is

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If you think Trump will bring tiny kei cars to the US, you might be as dumb as he is

Multiple outlets are reporting on Donald Trump’s apparent effort to change US regulations to bring tiny Japanese kei cars to the US, but there’s little reason to think that effort will be serious.

Convicted felon Donald Trump has directed former reality TV contestant Sean Duffy to examine how kei cars, a category of Japanese microcars, could be brought to the US, calling them “cute.”

The statement was made yesterday at the announcement of a fuel efficiency rollback, which will raise your fuel costs by $23 billion and is explicitly intended to make cars bigger and less efficient.

And so, simply by reading the preceding two sentences, you should understand how unserious this effort is. At the same moment that a new proposal was announced to reduce fuel efficiency targets by a third, the same person who is trying to increase your fuel costs and make cars bigger and less efficient apparently also wants tiny efficient vehicles in the US. How does that make sense?

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If Trump did know anything about how the auto industry works, he would not speak about making cars smaller at an event to announce rules explicitly intended towards making cars bigger – these are not compatible thoughts, and betray a lack of understanding of the reason he was even in the room to begin with.

Further, in addition to yesterday’s effort to remove CAFE rules, the EPA is currently trying to roll back President Biden’s improved exhaust standards which included a recognition of vehicle sizes becoming too large and a desire to reduce SUV/truck market share, and Mr. Trump is trying to place a 15% tariff on all Japanese goods, meaning higher prices for Americans if these cars were to come to the US.

Thinking more deeply about the reason why Mr. Trump might have mentioned kei cars to begin with, it is likely related to his recent trip to Japan. He went to Japan to negotiate an end to the unwise tariffs that he himself announced on one of America’s closest trading partners (despite that he does not have the Constitutional authority to apply them).

During that trip, he seems to have seen the tiny cars for the first time (or the first time he can remember, given his senility), and been enamored by them. So, he said yesterday (while flanked by Duffy, who showed apparent surprise as the flippant statement came out of his mouth):

“They’re very small, they’re really cute, and I said ‘How would that do in this country?’… But we’re not allowed to make them in this country and I think you’re gonna do very well with those cars, so we’re gonna approve those cars.”

-Donald Trump, upon witnessing a type of vehicle he should have known of by now, having spent 79 years globetrotting around this Earth, so how can he just be seeing this for the first time except if he’s senile.

Now, technically, here he says he wants the US to build the cars here, rather than import them from Japan. Kei cars are very popular in Japan, but rarer in other countries. Some other countries do have their own small cars similar to kei cars (for example, China’s 115-inch Wuling Mini EV), but Japan is where these vehicles have traditionally held the highest share.

GM's-top-selling-EV-China
New Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (Source: China’s MIIT)

There are various reasons for this, but one of them is due to the high density of Japanese cities. Kei cars are very space efficient for cities that are obsessed with space efficiency in a way that simply is not the case in the US.

Japanese cities are also connected by efficient, fast and reasonably-priced bullet trains, so getting from one side of the country to the other is easy to do without having to stuff the whole family into a vehicle that is under 134 inches long. And the regulatory regime in Japan has been built around kei cars, giving them certain advantages to incentivize their use.

mitsubishi electric kei car
Mitsubishi eK X EV

Meanwhile, it’s nigh-impossible to convince any manufacturer to even build a sedan, hatchback or small SUV for the US, or to build any small-displacement vehicle. So this would require a massive change in consumer tastes, which of course manufacturers haven’t been particularly interested in leading, given they’ve been pushing SUVs for decades now.

That said, one of the reasons manufacturers have pushed SUVs is due to regulations which treat them more favorably than smaller vehicles. If those regulations were changed – and that’s what Trump and Duffy have floated – it could open the doors for smaller cars.

But there’s little reason to think either of them are serious about this, given the amount of work that would have to be done to change regulations, and given the work they’re currently doing to change the regulations in the exact opposite direction.

At a minimum, Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) would have to change significantly. This is the set of rules governing safety requirements for all motor vehicles, with requirements for various vehicle classes that have been built and tweaked over time. And these requirements are tailored to how we build roads, infrastructure, and signage in this country, which differs from how these things are done in Japan or Europe or China.

While an effort to harmonize FMVSS and infrastructure standards with other countries would be admirable and has been desired for a long time in the auto industry, the enormity of the undertaking is much greater than a single flippant comment (from someone who probably doesn’t even know what FMVSS stands for).

And in fact, US regulations already do allow for exemptions to many regulations for low volume vehicles. So it already is possible to build small cars in the US, at least if you build fewer than 2,500 per year. So a startup focused on tiny cars could already get started here, and could have been selling kei-like cars all along (say, TELO, for example… but even they are offering a 152in truck, a foot and a half longer than a kei car, and with 500hp, about 8x more than a kei car).

TELO’s tiny truck next to a full size Dodge RAM

But why haven’t manufacturers made these cars already, then?

Again, going back to the above, regulations and manufacturers have both pushed vehicle sizes larger and larger, and consumer tastes have happily followed, with US drivers wasting more and more money and space on larger and more polluting vehicles.

There is a perception that these larger vehicles are safer (even though they aren’t, and we are currently nearing an all-time high in pedestrian fatalities), so if vehicles keep getting bigger as a result of regulations allowing them to, US consumers will be afraid to buy a car that’s even smaller than the smallest available today. And yesterday’s proposed rule explicitly claims, in its third paragraph, that smaller cars are undesirable for this reason (without recognizing that it’s actually the larger cars that are responsible this problem).

Kei cars are also typically less powerful than the average American car, which even Duffy claimed himself, saying “are they going to work on the freeways? Probably not” (even though most vehicles use about ~20hp to sustain highway speeds).

And given that the American consumer has been sold the dream of buying a vehicle not for what it will be used for, but for every conceivable purpose they could ever dream of using any vehicle for, it seems unlikely that many will line up for a car that they have been told can’t even get on the freeway.

After all, Smart cars did exist in the US, as have various other small vehicles, but they’ve always been marginalized, because the whole culture, manufacturing base and regulatory regime around cars and roads has been built to advantage large vehicles, not small ones.

So despite that microcar enthusiasts like myself want to see tiny cars in the US, the idea that manufacturers will suddenly scale up production of these vehicles in the US seems extremely unlikely without a concerted effort to show that they are welcome here and that there will be a market for them.

And I’m not convinced that concerted effort will be undertaken by people who are currently undertaking a concerted effort to do the exact opposite, and by someone who seems to change his mind with whatever stupid nonsense he happened to see 12 seconds ago on fox. Companies don’t build manufacturing facilities based on the whims of an idiot, they do so with clear and consistent policy that they can be certain will last through a vehicle model’s development and sales timeline (typically around ~14 years from start of development to end of production).

So I don’t think this is going to happen. Prove me wrong, I will be happy to eat crow here.


The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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