Looking Into The Future Of The Grid
Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.
Article courtesy of NREL.
One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.
The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.
All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.
Does any other resource like the ATB exist?
The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.
How does NREL build the data each year?
We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.
Who are the primary ATB users?
The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.
What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?
We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.
Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.
How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?
The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.
ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.
In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.
In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?
Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.
Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.
Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?
This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.
For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.
We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.
What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?
Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.
Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?
The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.
We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.
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Italian electric motorcycle manufacturer Energica has just been handed a lifeline. Previously owned by US company Ideanomics, the famed motorcycle brand entered insolvency late last year after a period of financial duress prevented it from making payroll and continuing production.
Now, a new group of investors from Singapore has stepped in to take over.
The news was shared on Energica’s YouTube channel, and the company confirmed on LinkedIn that “The judicial process undergoing the sale of Energica has received an offer with a significant deposit from investors based in Singapore.” Energica says that the investors, who so far remain unnamed, “are enthusiasts that believe in, and share the common values of Energica.”
While it’s not certain how the buyout and revival will unfold, it appears that Energica is planning on getting the band back together. “If the process comes through successfully,” the company explained, “the same team behind Energica will be entrusted to run the operations, and we will continue creating cutting-edge technologies for our customers.”
With many of Energica’s impressive electric motorcycles already in circulation from years of sales leading up to the 2024 bankruptcy, the company seems focused on starting by supporting those riders. ” Our first order of business is to support the customers and community. The judicial process will be completed in 60 days, and we will continue to share updates during the time.”
Energica rose to fame by building high-performance electric motorcycles in Modena, Italy, and was one of the early pioneers in the premium electric two-wheeler space. Its lineup includes models like the Experia electric touring bike and the Ego sportbike. The company previously supplied race bikes for the MotoE World Cup until Ducati took over the role in 2023.
After being acquired by US-based Ideanomics in 2021, Energica initially benefited from an injection of capital that helped expand production and dealer networks. But Ideanomics itself has faced serious financial trouble, becoming unable to invest in the future of Energica.
Energica’s future prospects seemed dim at the time of its insolvency in 2024, but the uncertainty appears to be clearing with the hope that new owners can breathe fresh life into the company.
Even so, Energica’s core competency is building the fastest, most powerful, and longest range production electric motorcycles the world has ever seen, and that’s not exactly an inexpensive enterprise. Combined with current market trends that favor smaller, lighter, and less expensive commuter-spec electric motorcycles, it begs the question of whether or not a newly revived Energica will find a receptive market, or whether the company will be forced to expand the scope of its products to match better the type of electric motorcycles that are selling today.
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Chinese carmaker XPeng is getting perilously close to bringing its AeroHT consumer eVTOL concept to market, thanks to a $250 million Series B round that’s set to accelerate the company’s modular “flying car” production plans.
XPeng subsidiary AeroHT had its first successful proof of concept test flight ahead of the brand’s annual 1024 back in 2023, where the company unveiled a pair of flying car designs. The X3 is an actual flying “car” that can drive, park, and take off on its own, and a second, modular eVTOL that folds up into the back of an electric van called the Land Aircraft Carrier.
That vehicle pair, shown at CES in January, was set to begin production this year, with the eVTOL component set to begin production in 2026 – and that’s looking a lot more likely thanks to the new infusion of capital!
AeroHT at CES 2025
Xpeng Aeroht raised $150 million in Series B1 funding last August, before launching its Series B2 funding round. The most recent announcement that the company has secured an additional $100 million in its Series B2 funding round brings the total amount raised to more than $750 million, with a $1B pre-revenue valuation.
CNEVPost reports that company aims to establish itself as a commercial pioneer in urban air mobility ahead of a potential IPO – and may get there sooner than later, thanks to several hundred pre-orders at the $280,000 projected price.
Electrek’s Take
Scooter Doll said it best, writing, “this footage (of the AeroHT test flight) is as scary and concerning as it is exciting and awe-inspiring.” Which is to say that these things are real, they seem like they’re getting built, and they seem like they’ll sell well enough to convince at least one or two remaining boomers that the flying car they’ve been promised their whole lives is – finally! – coming to market.
Here’s hoping.
SOURCE: Xpeng, via CNEVPost; gallery photos by the author.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Flooring manufacturer Beauflor USA just turned on the biggest rooftop solar system by capacity in metro Atlanta — and it’s now powering part of its Georgia factory.
The new 1,040 kW system in Cartersville officially beats metro Atlanta’s previous rooftop solar record of 1,034 kW. The new array produces enough energy to power more than 100 homes. The system is expected to cover about 10% of Beauflor’s electricity needs and cut its carbon emissions by about 920 metric tons annually.
“This solar installation represents our commitment to sustainable manufacturing practices while making sound business decisions,” said Emile Coopman, continuous improvement manager at Beauflor. He added that the system is designed with room to grow: “This is the first step toward more renewable energy.”
The company partnered with Cherry Street Energy to install the nearly 2,000-panel system, which was completed in less than four months. Cherry Street invested $1.8 million into the project and is covering all construction and maintenance costs through a 30-year energy procurement agreement. Beauflor will buy solar power directly from Cherry Street, allowing it to avoid upfront capital costs while still lowering its energy bills.
“As Georgia’s manufacturers ramp up production amid rising costs for grid energy, sophisticated operators seek ways to quickly and sustainably address their energy needs,” said Cherry Street CEO Michael Chanin. “On-site solar with no capital expense delivers just that: reliable, affordable electricity.”
Chanin added that the system’s power output is especially impressive: “The previous record-holder for metro Atlanta’s largest rooftop solar required over 4,000 panels. We’re using less than 2,000 to reliably generate even more power.”
Read more: This is New Jersey’s largest high-rise residential rooftop solar array
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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