Looking Into The Future Of The Grid
Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.
Article courtesy of NREL.
One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.
The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.
All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.
Does any other resource like the ATB exist?
The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.
How does NREL build the data each year?
We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.
Who are the primary ATB users?
The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.
What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?
We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.
Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.
How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?
The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.
ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.
In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.
In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?
Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.
Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.
Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?
This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.
For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.
We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.
What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?
Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.
Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?
The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.
We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.
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Honda announced that it is pausing about $15 billion in planned EV investments to build electric vehicle and battery factories in Canada amid uncertainty over trade.
It’s the latest example of Canada’s backing the US plan backfiring.
A few years ago, Canada sided with the US in its plan to save the US auto industry, which was falling behind the rest of the world in the transition to electric vehicles.
Canada agreed to heavily tariff Chinese EVs to keep them away from the North American market, which mainly helps the US auto manufacturing industry, and in return, Canada’s EV production was included in Biden’s IRA to encourage foreign automakers to invest in EV production in both US and Canada to get access to the US market.
However, when Trump came into power earlier this year, he threw a wrench into this entire plan by canceling IRA funding, planning to kill the EV tax credit, and placing tariffs on many countries, including Canada.
It has resulted in planned investments in the EV sector in Canada to cool down.
Now, one of Canada’s most significant EV investments has been paused.
Honda has announced that it is pausing for two years its plan to establish a massive new EV production base in Canada:
“Due to the recent slowdown of the EV market, Honda Motor has announced an approximate two-year postponement of the comprehensive value chain investment project in Canada. The company will continue to evaluate the timing and project progression as market conditions change.”
The investment was announced just over a year ago. It was supposed to include a new EV factory in Ontario and a battery factory, totaling more than $10 billion in investments.
It was supposed to create over 1,000 jobs in Ontario and help retain the 4,200 jobs at Honda’s current assembly plant in Ontario, which are threatened by the electric transition.
Electrek’s Take
Canada is taking a beating here and all for mostly just protecting the US auto industry.
As I have been saying for a while, at this point, you should just invite the Chinese automakers to join.
You can do a deal à la India, where you remove tariffs for Chinese automakers willing to invest in the EV supply chain in Canada.
There’s no point in protecting the US automakers if the US is purposefully destroying the Canadian auto sector.
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A new company out of Germany called ONOX is bringing sustainable technology to the agriculture industry. After garnering design awards, the ONOX electric tractor prototype is in operation overseas as its makers look to scale and bring its unique modular design, complete with swappable battery packs, to farms everywhere.
It’s been less than two years since ONOX hit the tech scene with a prototype of its flagship electric tractor, which debuted at Agritechnica 2023 in Hanover, Germany. In April of 2024, the German startup’s electric tractor was awarded an iF Design Gold Award.
That same summer, the ONOX1 finalized commissioning before entering an extensive test phase. By December, the startup had snagged another trophy – the Federal Ecodesign Award. This past February, the ONOX electric tractor received road approval in Germany and began operations while the design team continues its mission of making electric agricultural machinery a reality.
The ONOX electric tractor is unique in that it utilizes modular battery swap technology, in which farmers can choose from three different mounting areas (see below).
ONOX’s electric tractor could breathe new life into farming
Since the ONOX electric tractor remains a prototype, many of its specs are targets and estimates, but the initial design is quite impressive. The electric tractor’s motor offers peak power of 70 kW with over 2,400 Nm of torque up front and over 5,500 Nm in the rear. ONOX’s targeted top speed is 40 km/h (~25 mph).
The ONOX tractor features an integrated 20-kWh battery pack and room for additional swappable packs of 30 kWh each. The entire system operates on 48V power, so maintenance is safer and easier for users without further training since there is no risk of exposure to high-voltage components.
The ONOX design team has also integrated an Airline system with mounting rails on the tractor’s hood, enabling future owners to mount cargo, haul hay or produce, or customize the area with other parts. The front of the tractor is also front-loader-ready, adding to its modularity and versatility.
The ONOX website says the electric tractor is self-sufficient using its own solar energy, but from the specs and images we’ve seen, there is no evidence of any solar technology implemented on the current prototype. Perhaps they mean the swappable batteries can be charged using solar when not installed on the tractor.
We will monitor ONOX’s progress as electric tractor development continues en route to commercial sales.
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Toyota upgraded its electric SUV in just about every way possible. The 2026 Toyota bZ is refined from end to end with a fresh new style, more driving range, advanced new tech, and much more. It even has an NACS port, so you can charge at Tesla Superchargers. Here’s our first look at Toyota’s new EV.
Meet the 2026 Toyota bZ electric SUV
Remember the bZ4X? It’s currently the only EV Toyota sells in North America. It’s now called the “bZ,” and it’s better than ever.
The 2026 Toyota bZ has an estimated driving range of 314 miles, a 25% improvement over the outgoing bZ4X. It also has a built-in NACS charging port, unlocking access to Tesla’s vast Supercharger network across North America.
Toyota said the upgraded EV can charge from 10% to 80% “under ideal conditions” when using DC fast charging. With added Plug & Charge capabilities, charging has never been easier.
The AWD models now have up to 338 hp, a 50% improvement thanks to new SIC semiconductors. Front-wheel-drive (FWD) models deliver 221 hp, up from 201 HP in the 2025 bZ4X.
Other upgrades, including battery pre-conditioning and a thermal management system, help optimize charging speeds in cold weather.
Battery options and driving range
The 2026 Toyota bZ will have two battery options: 57.7 kWh and 74.7 kWh. Toyota estimates that the larger (74.7 kWh) battery will provide up to 314 miles of range, while the smaller (57.7 kWh) option will get up to 236 miles.
Toyota upgraded the electric SUV inside and out. The exterior features Toyota’s new “hammerhead front end,” which is shown on updated vehicles like the Camry and Crown. The new styling includes redesigned front overfenders and slim LED daytime running lights.
The interior received a few upgrades, including a redesigned center console. The setup now includes a larger 14″ Toyota Audio Multimedia touchscreen, two wireless phone chargers, and a slimmed-down dashboard.
Standard features include a 7″ driver display screen, heated front and rear seats, regenerative braking, Toyota Safety Sense 3.0, and more.
Upgrading to the Limited trim will gain you 20″ black alloy wheels, multi-LED headlights, SofTex®-trimmed seats, ventilated front seating, and added safety/ driver assist features. Other options include a panoramic moonroof with power sunshade (XLE) and a premium 9-speaker JBL Audio system (Limited).
.
| 2026 Toyota bZ trim | Battery | Range (Manufacturer estimated) |
| XLE FWD | 57.7 kWh | 236 miles |
| XLE FWD Plus | 74.7 kWh | 314 miles |
| XLE AWD | 74.7 kWh | 288 miles |
| Limited FWD | 74.7 kWh | 299 miles |
| Limited AWD | 74.7 kWh | 278 miles |
According to Toyota, the new name will help simplify things for buyers. We suspect it’s also designed to revamp the brand’s sole EV after a slow (to say it nicely) rollout in North America. The bZ4X was recalled shortly after launch over concerns that the wheels may fall off.
The 2026 Toyota bZ is expected to arrive at dealerships in the second half of 2025. Check back for more info as prices will be revealed soon.
With the upgraded 2026 model arriving, Toyota is offering close-out prices on the 2024 and 2025 bZ4X. The 2024 bZ4X is listed with up to $19,000 in lease cash, while 2025 models can be leased for as low as $269 per month. You can use our link to find deals on the 2024 and 2025 Toyota bZ4X in your area today.
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