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Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.

Article courtesy of NREL.

One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.

The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.

All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.

Does any other resource like the ATB exist?

The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.

How does NREL build the data each year?

We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.

Who are the primary ATB users?

The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.

What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?

We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.

Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.

How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?

The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.

ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.

In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.

In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?

Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.

Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.

Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?

This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.

For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.

We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.

What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?

Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.

Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?

The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.

We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.

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GM’s promised affordable EVs hit another hurdle, but there’s more to the story

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GM's promised affordable EVs hit another hurdle, but there's more to the story

The new Chevy Bolt EV is set to enter production later this year, with one fewer shift, following GM’s reduction in production plans at several US plants. Apart from the Bolt, GM promised a new family of affordable EVs. Are those, too, now at risk?

GM says more affordable EVs are coming, but when?

GM remained the number two EV maker in the US after back-to-back record sales months in July and August. However, with the $7,500 federal tax credit set to expire at the end of the month, the company expects a slowdown.

On Thursday, GM sent a note to employees at its Spring Hill plant in Tennessee, outlining plans to reduce output of two Cadillac electric SUVs, the Lyriq and Vistiq.

A source close to the matter confirmed the news to Reuters, saying the production halt will begin in December. GM will significantly reduce output during the first five months of 2026, according to the source.

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GM is also delaying the second shift at its Fairfax Assembly Plant in Kansas City, where the new Chevy Bolt is slated to enter production later this year. The Bolt will be the first of a new series of affordable EVs that GM intends to build in Kansas.

GM-affordable-EVs
GM plans to build a “next-gen affordable EV) in Kansas (Source: GM)

However, those too, may now be in jeopardy. According to local news outlets, GM Korea Technical Research Center (GMTCK), a spin-off of GM’s Korean subsidiary, was recently cut out of a secret small EV project it was developing.

GMTCK president Brian McMurray reportedly announced internally last month during a trip to the US that the project was cancelled and only 30% to 40% complete.

A GM Korea spokesperson clarified that “the EV project being led by GMTCK was a global undertaking, not undertaken solely by GM Korea. The spokesperson added, “The project itself has not been canceled; the role of the Korean team has simply changed.”

The new electric car, dubbed “Fun Family,” was scheduled to launch under the Chevy and Buick brands, using a single platform. Production was expected to begin in 2027 with deliveries starting in 2028.

Chevy-Bolt-EV
2022 Chevy Bolt EUV (Source: GM)

GM Korea exports over 90% of the vehicles it makes to the US, but with the new auto tariffs, the subsidiary is expected to play a drastically smaller role, if any at all. The news is fueling the ongoing rumors that GM could withdraw from Korea altogether.

In addition to the tariffs, South Korea’s recently passed “Yellow Envelope Law” could make it even more difficult for GM with new labor laws.

Chevy-Equinox-EV-discounts
Chevy Equinox EV LT (Source: GM)

Will this impact the affordable EVs GM is promising to launch in the US? They are scheduled to be built in Kansas, but with the R&D Center, GM’s second largest globally, following the US, claiming to be excluded from a major global EV project, it can’t be a good sign.

In the meantime, GM already has one of the most affordable electric vehicles in the US, the Chevy Equinox EV. Starting at under $35,000, the company calls it “America’s most affordable” EV with over 315 miles of range.

With the $7,500 federal tax credit still available, GM is promoting Chevy Equinox EV leases for under $250 a month. Nowadays, it’s hard to find any vehicle for under that.

Source: Newsworks Korea

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Connecticut, Rhode Island sue Trump to save 80% complete offshore wind farm

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Connecticut, Rhode Island sue Trump to save 80% complete offshore wind farm

Connecticut and Rhode Island are suing the Trump administration to overturn its “baseless” decision to halt Revolution Wind, a nearly completed offshore wind farm set to deliver clean power to New England.

Attorneys General William Tong of Connecticut and Peter Neronha of Rhode Island announced Thursday that they’ll file suit in Rhode Island federal court to overturn the August 22 stop-work order from the Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management (BOEM). The order abruptly shut down construction without citing any violation of law or safety threats. Instead, BOEM vaguely referred to “concerns” under its Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act authority, offering no explanation.

Revolution Wind is 15 nautical miles off Rhode Island and expected to come online in 2026. Once complete, the $6 billion project would supply 350,000 homes with electricity and save ratepayers in Connecticut and Rhode Island hundreds of millions of dollars over 20 years. The project supports more than 2,500 jobs across the US, including over 1,000 union construction jobs, and has already cleared every required state and federal review. Construction is already 80% complete.

The lawsuit, to be filed against the Department of the Interior, BOEM, and their nominated leaders, argues that the stop-work order violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the agency’s authority under OCSLA. The complaint says the government’s action is arbitrary, capricious, and undermines both states’ legal and financial commitments.

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“Revolution Wind is fully permitted, nearly complete, and months from providing enough American-made, clean, affordable energy to power 350,000 homes. Now, with zero justification, Trump wants to mothball the project, send workers home, and saddle Connecticut families with millions of dollars in higher energy costs,” Tong said. “This kind of erratic and reckless governing is blatantly illegal, and we’re suing to stop it.”

Neronha added, “With Revolution Wind, we have an opportunity to create good-paying jobs for Rhode Islanders, enhance energy reliability, and ensure energy cost savings while protecting our environment. And yet, this stop-work order is not even the latest development in this administration’s all-out assault on wind energy. Just yesterday, we learned of reports that the Administration is pulling in staff from several different unrelated federal agencies, including Health and Human Services, to do its bidding. This is bizarre, this is unlawful, this is potentially devastating, and we won’t stand by and watch it happen.”

Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont said the administration has offered no explanation nearly two weeks after the order. “We hoped to work with the Administration to lower energy costs, strengthen grid reliability, create jobs, and drive economic growth, but only if they share those goals. But if they do not, we will act to preserve this vital project and protect the energy future of Connecticut and the entire New England region,” he said.

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) called the shutdown “insane, illogical, and illegal,” while Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said, “The Revolution Wind project has already made it through exhaustive reviews by multiple federal agencies, and I doubt Trump’s flimsy excuses for scuttling this project will stand up to legal scrutiny.”

Danish renewables developer Ørsted, which owns a 50% share in Revolution Wind, also announced Thursday that it’s suing the Trump administration in a bid to restart construction on the blocked wind farm.

Read more: Trump’s latest offshore wind cancellation is a threat to the grid – ISO New England


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Canada may get cheap Chinese EVs because of cooking oil – here’s why

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Canada may get cheap Chinese EVs because of cooking oil - here's why

Canada is “reviewing” its current 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, which could potentially give another entry point for the inexpensive, advanced vehicles into the North American market.

The strange part? The review is being pushed for, mainly, by the premiers of right-leaning provinces. And it has everything to do with your cooking oil.

The news of the review came yesterday from the National Post, who confirmed with Canada’s national finance minister that “officials are currently undertaking work on this review, including an assessment of China’s policies and trade practices, and whether the scope of the surtaxes, as well as the surtax rate, remain appropriate.”

Canada currently has a 100% tariff (surtax) on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum, implemented last October. Canada’s tariffs came after similar tariffs implemented by US President Biden, though they were justified by claiming that China engages in unfair competition in EVs.

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The country does have a significant auto industry, with about 10% of Canada’s exports consisting of cars, trucks and the parts and accessories for each. This auto industry is heavily tied with the US auto industry, which is centered in Detroit, a literal stone’s throw away from the Canadian border.

As a result, Canada followed the US’ lead with tariffs, recognizing that our two countries, historically tied together by the close trade and cultural relationships across the longest border on Earth should be on the same page about an industry that is shared and important to each of us (nevermind that the US tariffs were dumb to begin with).

A souring US-Canada relationship

But since then, things have changed. A contentious election in the US led to the dumbest person on the planet squatting in an office that he is Constitutionally barred from holding, and after that election the ignoramus in question illegally imposed even dumber tariffs on China and the rest of the world.

The same ignoramus also made numerous threats against Canada’s sovereignty and targeted the country with tariffs despite the close relationship between the US and Canada.

This caused disruption in Canada’s auto industry, including immediate job losses and a scramble to beg for exemptions for the industry that has long-benefitted from free cross-border movement of supplies. (Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney today cited US tariffs as his reason for delaying Canada’s EV transition, showing how the actions of US republicans aren’t just poisoning Americans, but Canadians as well.

All told, all of this nonsense had the primary effect of swinging a sure-bet election for Canada’s right-wing into a solid win for the incumbent Liberal party.

And it has left Canadians thinking more about their own national identity, and searching to establish some independence from the United States of America’s whims on the International stage.

It’s all about cooking oil

With the US-Canada relationship already soured, China struck a characteristically surgical blow. In response to Canada’s tariffs on EVs, China announced it would impose heavy tariffs of 76% on… canola. Yes, the thing that’s in your cooking oil.

Canada is the world’s top producer of canola, ahead of China. And China is the world’s top consumer of canola (though US is Canada’s largest buyer of canola). So, China’s move removes a big market for Canadian farmers and disrupts the global canola market significantly. It’s estimated this has cost Western Canadian farmers nearly a billion dollars already (China did a similar move in 2018 with a soybean tariff on the US).

Now here’s the rub: Western Canada is the more rural part of the country, with giant plains provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta whose primary industries are farming and oil. That’s where the canola is grown. These provinces, predictably, are pretty conservative. And they’re mad about these tariffs.

Canada’s right-wing leads charge for Chinese EVs

And so, the right-wing premiers of both Saskatchewan and Alberta have recently demanded that the Canadian government remove tariffs on Chinese EVs, in the hope that it would get China to remove the tariffs that are currently ruining Canada’s canola farmers. Saskatchewan’s premier is even heading to China right now to negotiate.

From the US, this seems counterintuitive – why would the right-wing be asking for more EVs, when the right wing in the US is so stupidly against improving our transportation options.

And it even seems counterintuitive from the Canadian perspective, as the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan both have ridiculous registration taxes for electric cars, where EVs suffer high opposition due to the prominence of the oil industry in the each of them. Alberta, in particular, is often referred to as the “Texas of Canada,” and has a brewing separatist movement, some members of which want Alberta to join the USA. So how’s that for an inversion of expectations.

But as a result of the US’ haphazard tariff nonsense, its own allies in Canada (even specifically those in the Canadian right wing) have been pushed towards a deeper relationship with China, with Canadian PM Carney stating this week “there may be areas where… we can expand the commercial relationship with things that China does well.”

And the charge by right-wing premiers seems to be working. After yesterday’s announcement of the Canadian federal government’s “review” of Chinese EV tariffs, and the impending trip to China by Canadian trade officials and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, China delayed the imposition of canola tariffs just today.

So, Canadian farmers get some breathing room – and depending on the results of the tariff “review,” if they end up getting access to cheap Chinese EVs, they might breathe more freely in more ways than one.


The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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