Solar Activity Was At Record-High Level In USA In 2020
One decade ago, I was writing about the rapid growth of solar power in the United States and the exciting forecast for much more solar growth in the country. The past couple of years have again brought record solar installations in the United States, and record solar activity more broadly. Of course, this is driven in large part by record-low solar prices, but not only.
Chart by U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report.
What’s Driving US Solar Power Growth?
Money, money, money — it’s hard to say that most of this growth doesn’t come down to continuous solar panel cost drops over the past decade, which as I reported last year led to an average rooftop solar power price of $2.19/watt across the USA and a Tesla rooftop solar power price of $1.49/watt across the country. Both prices are the price after the US solar tax credit, aka Investment Tax Credit (ITC), takes 26% off the consumer cost.
Related, the federal solar tax credit was on the verge of dropping from 26% of the cost of a solar power system to 22% after 2020, but it was extended at the end of the year. A desire to get the 26% credit before it was cut to 22% surely led to a solar power rush throughout the year. It turns out the tax credit was extended at the end of the year, but that doesn’t mean the systems installed due to the potential expiration are any less real.
How Much Did US Solar Power Grow In 2020?
As noted above, the big-picture view is of solar activity — or solar PV module shipments — which includes solar panel (aka solar module) imports, solar panel exports, solar panels produced, and solar panels sold domestically. (I know, it seems like a somewhat weird accumulation of different activities.) They rose to 21.8 million peak kilowatts (kW) of solar power capacity in 2020, by far their best ever. In fact, that was 5.4 million peak kW above 2019’s total, their previous best.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration adds that the COVID-19 crisis may have given rooftop solar a boost, too. “Demand for residential solar installations increased in 2020 in part because people were spending more time at home, which in turn resulted in an increased interest in home improvement.”
Though, the growth wasn’t all about rooftop solar. In fact, utility-scale solar saw an even bigger growth spurt than rooftop solar. Utility-scale solar PV installations (1 MW and above) rose by 29% in 2020, compared to 2019, whereas small-scale solar rose by 19%. The average of the two was 25% growth.
Graph by U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report
Low solar power costs combined with growing awareness and greater increase in energy self-reliance have surely led to further solar power growth in 2021, but there likely won’t be a rush induced by changes to the tax incentives again until 2022, since the 26% credit extension went through 2022, dropping to 22% in 2023 (unless it gets extended again, but that seems unlikely).
“The average value (a proxy for price) of solar shipments decreased from $1.96 per peak watt in 2010 to $0.38 per peak watt in 2020,” the EIA writes, referencing the graph above. “Lower supply chain costs and an oversupply of modules because of increased production are largely responsible for the declines in the average value of solar PV modules over the past decade.”
And here are a few more stats from the EIA team, with lead writing by Lolita Jamison: “In 2020, 89% of U.S. solar PV module shipments were imports. PV module imports in 2020 totaled 19.3 million peak kilowatts (kW), an increase of 26% from the 15.3 million peak kW imported in 2019. Vietnam was the leading importer to the United States, followed by Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand.”
As far as where in the US all of this solar power gets installed, as could be expected, the three most populated states in the nation — each of which have more than ample solar energy resources — stand out well above the crowd. Though, #4 Virginia shows an impressively large contribution, coming out of nowhere compared to previous years (it was #14 in 2018 and #19 in 2019). North Carolina, South Carolina, and New York round out the top 7, with the first and the last in that trio very familiar with top rankings, and the middle child improving on a very solid 2019 total. Here’s a short bullet-point summary for the top 10 in 2020 since the table below is a bit hard to read (all figures in MWdc):
- California — 3904
- Texas — 3425
- Florida — 2822
- Virginia — 1406
- North Carolina — 785
- South Carolina — 617
- New York — 544
- Arizona — 503
- Utah — 427
- New Jersey — 387
Table courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
2021 and Beyond
What will 2021, 2022, and 2023 bring?
The U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) projects that 2021 will set an even significantly stronger solar power installation record, and then will grow a bit more gradually in 2022 and 2023 before dropping off for a few years in 2024, 2025, and 2026 due to the US solar tax credit reduction.
Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
The trends are expected to be approximately the same in both the small-scale (typically rooftop) solar PV market and the utility-scale solar PV market.
Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.
We shall see.
Is It Time To Go Solar?
This is always the question, and the answer is always “yes.” There are a variety of factors to consider and it’s a decision for each person, family, or business to look at closely themselves. However, year after year, it is typically the case that there’s a lot of money to be made, or saved, by going solar. If financing, the long-term savings often beat business-as-usual retail electricity purchasing. If considering a cash purchase, one can also take into account other investment opportunities and risk-reward levels. One way or another, though, going solar often makes financial sense. And when you take into account the climate catastrophe we’re facing, it’s just the right thing to do.
Considering going solar at a home or business? If so, I always recommend getting at least 3 quotes from solar installers (they’re always free), looking carefully at the terms and conditions, and consulting with someone who has already gone solar if you have the opportunity. If you end up deciding on going solar with Tesla, feel free to use my referral code — https://ts.la/zachary63404 — for a $100 discount (and a bit of a bonus for me, too). That works for either conventional solar panels or a Tesla Solar Roof (solar tiles).
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Republicans announced a new tax plan today and it’s just about as bad for America as expected, taking money for healthcare, clean air and energy efficiency from American families and sending it to the ultra-wealthy instead.
You might think that this helps one of those ultra-wealthy, Elon Musk, who gave hundreds of millions of dollars to ani-EV candidates to help make this happen. But the main source of his wealth, Tesla, will be specifically harmed by rescission of EV credits – and its competitors largely won’t be.
Now that the republican party has unveiled its job-killing tax proposal, we know a little more about what’s in it.
Originally, it was thought by many that the proposal would completely kill all federal EV credits, with some estimating that the $7,500 credit would go away immediately (personally, I never thought it would be that stupid, but you never know with the republicans).
But it’s clear they want to destroy the credit and make cars more expensive for Americans. After all, Donald Trump, while running for an office he remains Constitutionally barred from holding, asked oil companies for a billion-dollar bribe in exchange for ending the EV credit, a promise he has continued to say he will uphold as he squats in the aforementioned office.
And last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the House is likely to end the credit.
It turns out the details are a little more nuanced than that, and that while the credit is ending, it will sunset a little later than many feared.
It’s likely that the credit will last through the end of this year – which makes sense, since that’s how tax changes often work. Then, at the end of the year, Inflation Reduction Act credits will largely disappear.
However, in the current draft of the bill, some automakers will retain access to some EV credits, for a time. This is due to an exception given for manufacturers who have not sold 200,000 vehicles between 2009 and 2025, a similar cap to the old EV tax credit that was first implemented in 2008, before Congress improved it and removed the cap in the Inflation Reduction Act.
So, smaller manufacturers will continue to have some support, while large manufacturers who have already sold plenty of cars will lose all of their credits.
A number of manufacturers have already reached the 200k EV cap, including Nissan, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and of course, Tesla. Those manufacturers will lose access to credits.
But others who started late or have more niche offerings continue to be under the 200k cap. These include companies like Mercedes, Honda, Lucid, Mazda and Subaru.
Specifically, Rivian has been identified as one of the possible winners here, as the company has not yet sold 200,000 vehicles, though should be crossing that line sometime in the next couple years.
And finally, the real competition for Tesla, gas cars, will not lose anything from the rescission of EV credits. Those cars will continue selling, they’ll just have a $7,500 advantage relative to today – on top of their advantage of each gas car being allowed to choke the world with $20,000+ in unpaid pollution costs, which show up on everyone’s hospital bills and health insurance premiums.
So that brings up an interesting point: when Tesla and its bad CEO Elon Musk threw their support behind all of this, what did they think they would get out of it?
After all, Tesla wrongly said, at the behest of Musk and his tortured logic, that ending EV credits would somehow help it.
We called out that obvious incorrect statement at the time, saying that No, for crying out loud, killing EV subsidies will not help an EV company.
But now it turns out that the situation is even worse for Tesla, because not only does Tesla’s gas competition get to keep the credits, but many electric competitors will get to keep them for some time as well.
And don’t forget that this last quarter, government incentives were the only thing keeping Tesla from losing money. A regulatory environment that is more hostile to Tesla could turn black to red on the balance sheet, along with dropping sales and negative brand perception. Thank the bad CEO you voted to give $55B to for that loss, shareholders.
But the oil companies, another competitor for Tesla, will continue to benefit from roughly $760 billion in subsidy per year in the US alone, in terms of the health and environmental costs they impose on society and do not pay for.
If that subsidy was ended alongside the $7,500 EV credit, then EVs would indeed come out on top. But instead of ending those massive subsidies to fossil fuels, republicans have proposed to increase them, by cutting down enforcement and loosening pollution limits, both through this tax bill and through other agency actions and proposals.
Further, the tax proposal unveiled today sunsets credits for many other products that Tesla sells. There are solar and home energy efficiency credits which Tesla takes advantage of through its Energy division, which sells solar and home battery systems to homeowners. These can be worth tens of thousands of dollars per installation, and those will go away if this proposal goes through.
So in the end, Tesla loses access to credits both on its cars and its Energy division, while its competitors get an even more beneficial regulatory environment to continue polluting. And even its electric competitors get a temporary leg up for the time being.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk gets his part of the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts that go directly to wealthy elites. So at least his pocketbook will look slightly better for a time, even though the company that has been responsible for filling it it will fall further due to less attractive product pricing and through his own association, which has driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away.
So, to those of you who wanted us to “trust the plan” – how, exactly, is this beneficial to Tesla, again?
Among the proposed cuts is the rooftop solar credit. That means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home, before republicans raise the cost of doing so by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.
To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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China’s EV giant is on a roll. BYD is coming off its best sales week in China of 2025, racking up nearly 68,000 registrations. In comparison, Tesla logged just over 3,000.
BYD notches its best EV sales week of 2025
Another week, another impressive performance from BYD. Although most automakers saw higher sales for the week ending May 11, the company continues leading China’s EV market by a mile.
According to the latest insurance registration data (via CarNewsChina), BYD registered 67,980 vehicles from May 5 to May 11. That’s up 15% from the 58,310 registrations the previous week and BYD’s best sales week of 2025.
BYD’s premium sub-brands, Denza and Fang Cheng Bao, notched 2,990 and 2,660 registrations, respectively, up 3.8% and 17.7% from the prior week.
NIO and XPeng posted stronger numbers last week in China, with 6,060 (+18.2%) and 6,870 (+23.8%) vehicle registrations. NIO’s new sub-brands are starting to gain traction. Onvo registered 1,660, and Firefly, which began deliveries on April 29, added 470 more.
During the week of May 5 to May 11, other Chinese EV brands, including Xiaomi, Deepal, and ZEEKR, also made strong showings. Xiaomi registered 5,180 vehicles of its sole EV, the SU7. Deepal registered 4,700 vehicles, and ZEEKR followed with 4,310.
Earlier today, Electrek reported that Tesla delivered just 3,070 vehicles in China last week, down 69% from the same week the prior year.
Tesla extended its 0% financing offer through June 30 to help drive demand and keep pace with BYD, SAIC, and others.
Electrek’s Take
Although EV sales were up 38% in China in April, Tesla’s fell 9% to 28,731. On the other hand, BYD sold over 380,000 new energy vehicles last month.
Those numbers include plug-in hybrids, but even if you look strictly at EV sales, BYD is leading Tesla and every automaker by a wide margin in China. Last month, BYD sold over 195,000 fully electric (EV) cars, the first time in over a year that BYD sold more EVs than PHEVs.
BYD’s overseas sales also hit a fifth straight month of growth, with over 79,000 vehicles sold. It outsold Tesla in key markets, including Germany (1,566 vs 855) and the UK (2,511 vs 512) in April.
Through April, the automaker has sold over 285,000 vehicles in overseas markets. With new manufacturing plans opening in Europe, Mexico, Brazil, Southeast Asia, and other global regions, BYD’s momentum is expected to accelerate over the next few years.
BYD is best known for its low-cost EVs, but it’s rapidly expanding into new segments with pickup trucks, luxury vehicles, and electric supercars rolling out.
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China has reclaimed the No. 1 spot on BloombergNEF’s annual Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking, bumping Canada to second place, as its low electricity prices and strong infrastructure gave it the edge in 2024.
The report ranks 30 countries based on how well they’re positioned to build a secure and sustainable battery supply chain, and this year’s reshuffling says a lot about where the market’s headed.
Canada, which had taken the lead in 2023, held onto a solid second-place finish, tied with the US. But while Canada is still a leader in battery raw materials and continues to attract investors with its stable political environment, it’s been slow to scale up battery manufacturing. That drop in momentum left the door open for China to reclaim its lead.
The US is facing its own set of challenges. The Inflation Reduction Act gave America’s battery industry a significant boost last year, but that progress is now under threat. Donald Trump’s latest tariffs and climate rollbacks are starting to push up costs for US battery makers. They’re also making the US less attractive to investors, which could slow down new projects and shrink domestic demand for EVs and storage systems.
“Brazil and Indonesia registered the largest gains in the fifth edition of the ranking,” said Ellie Gomes-Callus, a metals and mining associate at BloombergNEF. “Growth across these emerging markets has been driven by surging demand and ambitious policy roadmaps. However, all eyes will be on the US this year, as it awaits the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies.”
Japan and South Korea also climbed higher in the top 10. Their early lead in building out battery supply chains is still paying off, even as global competition heats up and profit margins shrink. Like China, they’ve managed to hold strong in all five of BloombergNEF’s scoring categories: raw materials, manufacturing, demand, ESG (environmental, social, and governance), and innovation.
Europe, on the other hand, is starting to slip. Out of 11 European countries in the ranking, only the Czech Republic and Turkey improved their standings this year. Five stayed the same, and four dropped. Hungary and Finland saw the biggest falls – seven and six spots, respectively. Hungary is now second-worst in Europe for ESG metrics, and Finland’s once-promising nickel and cobalt industries have lost steam, partly due to tough permitting rules. Case in point: BASF’s new battery component plant in Harjavalta has been delayed by permitting issues.
Without stronger government action and better support for manufacturers, Europe risks losing even more ground to fast-moving markets in South America and Southeast Asia.
The report also highlighted some other trends shaping the global battery race. Canada stayed strong overall but lost ground in manufacturing. A few major companies, including Ford, E-One Moli, and Umicore, have paused investments despite new government support, citing weaker-than-expected demand.
Meanwhile, Europe’s battery growth is slowing as capacity lags behind other regions and demand softens due to smaller market sizes and EV saturation in places like the Nordics. Countries in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia are falling behind as a result.
The raw materials side of the market isn’t looking great either. Supply is up, but demand is down. There’s too much material and not enough buyers. And while the market for mined metals is overflowing, refined battery metals tell a more mixed story. Still, one thing hasn’t changed: China remains the dominant force in refining, and it’s still leading the way in building new manufacturing capacity, even as other countries struggle to scale up.
Unless the US and Europe can course-correct quickly, they may find themselves watching from the sidelines as China and emerging economies lead the next phase of the global battery boom.
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