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The prime minister is expected to announce a rise in national insurance payments to fund social care, despite this being a breach of the 2019 Tory manifesto.

Reports in The Times and The Daily Telegraph say the plans could be revealed as soon as next week when parliament returns from its summer recess.

Both newspapers said national insurance is the favoured approach but there are varying reports of how much the rise could be.

The Times said Health Secretary Sajid Javid is pushing for a 2% increase while Chancellor Rishi Sunak is arguing against any increase of more than 1%.

The Daily Telegraph said Number 10 wants a one percentage point rise but the Treasury is pushing to go higher, possibly 1.25 percentage points.

Social care is in desperate need of funding reform but any plan to increase national insurance payments is likely to disproportionately hit millions of younger people.

It will also break a promise made by the Conservatives ahead of the 2019 general election, which guaranteed there would be no increase to the rate of income tax, VAT, or national insurance.

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This promise was confirmed in July by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who told Sky News: “That’s what it says in the manifesto, I don’t see how we could increase national insurance.

“But you know things have been very flexible over the last 18 months, we’ve lived through an unprecedented time, we’ve been spending huge amounts of money that we never thought was possible and it’s up to the chancellor and the Treasury, and the wider government, to decide a budget.”

Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrats spokesperson for health and social care, said in a statement the increase of two percentage points was “unfair and unjust”.

“Sajid Javid is putting the burden on the same people who have been hardest hit by the pandemic, and Boris Johnson has today broken his manifesto promise not to raise taxes.

“Has it really taken all this time, to make a decision to rip-off the people who can least afford to shoulder the burden of social care?”

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Another tantrum from the Labour backbenches is inevitable

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).

Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”

Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”

Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”

Fast-forward 15 minutes.

Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”

(Pause)

Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”

Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.

Politics latest: Former Labour leader calls for wealth tax on assets above £10m

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Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma

That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.

In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.

As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.

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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.

So what can be done?

Well, the government could change the rules.

Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.

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Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM

A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.

Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.

That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.

The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.

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Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?

The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.

Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.

In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.

If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.

And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.

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UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria

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UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria

The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.

The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.

It marks the latest diplomatic move since Bashar al Assad’s regime was toppled by rebel groups led by HTS in December.

In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.

“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.

“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”

Foreign Secretary David Lammy shakes hands with Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.

While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.

The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.

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Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.

In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.

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From May: Trump says US will end sanctions for Syria

He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.

“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

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Secret Service seizes $400M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

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Secret Service seizes 0M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Secret Service seizes 0M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Secret Service quietly amasses one of the world’s largest crypto cold wallets with $400 million seized, exposing scams through blockchain sleuthing and VPN missteps.

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