Connect with us

Published

4 years ago

on

7:00 AM ET

Exactly one month from today, Major League Baseball’s 2021 regular season will come to a close.

When it does, which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs? Which teams will be on the outside looking in? Will the San Francisco Giants edge the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, or vice versa? Who will be the favorites to reach the Fall Classic? How will the MVP and Cy Young award races shape up? What will Shohei Ohtani‘s final batting and pitching lines look like at the end of the two-way star’s historic year for the Los Angeles Angels?

And what other surprises might await us down the stretch?

To get a sense of what the final month of the regular season might bring, we convened a panel of 17 ESPN baseball experts to answer some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked them to justify their answers — particularly those who went against the grain.

Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, the major awards and more, including a few out-on-a-limb answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.

Which team currently in or very close to the playoff field is most likely to miss out?

Reds: 8
Red Sox: 5
Padres: 2
A’s: 1
Yankees: 1

So we’re not sold on the Reds, eh? None of the teams that would currently make the playoffs are really floundering. The Reds are probably the closest to a team playing over its head, while the Padres are the one team in striking distance that has fallen short of expectations. Cincinnati may hold on, and the field grows more crowded by the day, but San Diego has more talent than the Reds, Cardinals or Phillies. — Bradford Doolittle

Nor the Red Sox? Let me just say: I still think the Red Sox make the postseason. But if there’s anything likely at this point to completely derail a team, it’s a COVID-19 outbreak that turns over a third of the roster, and that’s exactly what the Red Sox are dealing with right now. They’ve weathered it reasonably well so far, but they’ve still got series against the Rays and White Sox over the next 10 days, and with Oakland just one game back in the loss column and Toronto ever lurking and dangerous, the Red Sox have work to do if they want to send Chris Sale to the mound in the AL wild-card game. — Jeff Passan

Who will finish the regular season with more wins: the Giants or the Dodgers — and how many W’s for each?

Dodgers: 11 (High: 105; Low: 99; Average: 102)

Giants: 6 (High: 105; Low: 98; Average: 101)

Why the Dodgers? While San Francisco is without a doubt the biggest surprise team in the majors this year, it will feel like a heartbreak when the Giants finish second — because they’re going to wind up with 102 or 103 regular-season victories and get stuck playing a one-game wild-card in the postseason. A great year of progress will all come down to those nine innings. The Dodgers, building on the momentum they have gathered since the trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, will finish with 105 victories. They may not be one of the best teams of all time, which seemed possible in April, but they’ve got the best shot of any team since the Yankees clubs of 1996-2000 to go back-to-back. — Buster Olney

Why the Giants? While some of the Giants’ September schedule is tough, as they’ll take on the Padres and Dodgers in the division, about half their games are against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Rockies. The Giants aren’t one of these highly volatile teams with huge swings at home or on the road or against plus and minus .500 teams. They’re solid in all areas. There’s no reason to think they’ll slow down in the final month after playing great baseball for so long. They may get beat out by the Dodgers but it’ll be because Los Angeles is just that good. The Giants will keep proving they are as well. — Jesse Rogers

You voted for a season-ending tiebreaker. Paint us a picture. The great NL race between the surprising Giants and star-laden Dodgers goes down to the wire — and ends in a tie, both teams with 103 wins. So we get the third Giants-Dodgers tiebreaker in history, following 1951 (“The Giants win the pennant!”) and 1962 (the Giants won that one as well, with four runs in the top of the ninth in Game 3 when it was a best-of-three). The Dodgers go with Walker Buehler and he clinches the Cy Young Award with a 4-0 shutout win, relegating the Giants to the wild card. — David Schoenfield

Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL?

Rays 14
Astros 2
White Sox 1

What makes the Rays so dominant? The Rays are the best-run organization in baseball from rookie ball through the major leagues. Their secret, among many, is that everyone plays, everyone contributes. Their 25th man is better than anyone else’s 25th man. Their 20th through 25th men are better than any other team’s 20th through 25th. The Yankees won 13 games in a row in August, and lost ground to the Rays, making the Yankees the fourth team in history to do that in any month, the first since the 1965 Giants. — Tim Kurkjian

Yet you chose the Astros. Why? It’s as simple as the schedule: The Astros’ remaining slate is a little easier than the Rays’ — those being my top two candidates — and when the two teams link up for three in the final week, with home field probably on the line, the games will be played in Houston. Plus, the Astros are a better — and healthier — team today than the one we’ve seen the past month-plus, with Alex Bregman and Jose Urquidy now back (or close to it, with the latter). — Tristan Cockcroft

And you were the one person who chose the White Sox. Why Chicago? Six of Chicago’s last nine series will come against teams that don’t have anything to play for in this final month (two against the Tigers and one each against the Royals, Angels, Rangers and Indians). The Rays, residing at the top of a fiercely competitive division, still have to play the Blue Jays (twice), Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. It’s a massive gap to make up, I know, but the White Sox have the talent to get scorching hot when they want. — Alden Gonzalez

The 2021 World Series matchup will be … ?

AL
White Sox 7
Astros 5
Rays 4
Yankees 1

NL
Dodgers 12
Giants 3
Brewers 2

Dodgers-White Sox was our most-picked matchup. Why will these two teams meet in October? The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. The White Sox might not be the best team in their own league, and they’re six games back of the best record, but here’s what they do have. Luis Robert, healthy and awesome. Yasmani Grandal, healthy and awesome. Perhaps the deepest lineup in the league. Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dylan Cease. And a fearsome bullpen, which has been pretty rough, truthfully, in the second half but is calibrated for playoff excellence. Explaining why the Dodgers is like explaining why cookies. Just because, OK? The White Sox, on the other hand, might ultimately not be the best, but they look the part more than any of their AL contemporaries. — Passan

Our runners-up in each league were the Astros and Giants. You picked both. What makes you think they’re the teams to beat? The Giants have been consistently excellent. Their offense remains a constant threat for the long ball, yet their pitching keeps the ball in the ballpark. They get the quick score, but make opponents work for every run. The Astros have been a run-differential machine, outscoring opponents through a high-powered offense that got healthier with the return of Alex Bregman. Their pitching has been effective with a mix of young arms coming into their own, excellent defense and strong additions in the bullpen at the trade deadline. These are undoubtedly two of the best teams in baseball, and there is no clear favorite over either of them in their respective leagues. The Astros have shown they can get smoking hot; no reason they can’t do the same in the postseason. — Doug Glanville

You cast the lone vote for the Yankees — and one of just two for the Brewers. Tell us why. When your preseason pick is still alive, despite some ups and downs, now is not the time to abandon it. The Yankees fixed their lineup at the trade deadline and have a sneaky-effective starting staff. If Aroldis Chapman has one good month in him, watch out: The men in pinstripes will pull off an upset or two and still be standing for the Fall Classic. On the other side, how can you not like the Brewers? They have everything a team needs to go all the way — a solid offense, three top starters and a good bullpen led by lefty Josh Hader. On top of everything, they have dominated the powerhouse NL West all season, compiling a 23-9 record against the division including a 12-6 mark against the Dodgers, Giants and Padres so far. Milwaukee should be one of the favorites in the NL. — Rogers

The 2021 AL and NL MVPs will be … ?

AL
Shohei Ohtani 17

NL
Fernando Tatis Jr. 13
Bryce Harper 2
Freddie Freeman 1
Trea Turner 1

How great has Ohtani been? The most futile task in sports is defining Shohei Ohtani’s season. Comparisons no longer work, since there are no longer any reputable comparisons. The stat-facts that begin, “Shohei Ohtani became the first player in 103 years to do something that nobody will ever do again,” have long ago lapsed into parody. Adjectives — astonishing, incredible, unprecedented — are true but unhelpful. He is not just a pitcher who hits, or a hitter who pitches; he is among the top four or five most proficient people in the world at both. He has consistently thrown the ball faster than anybody in baseball while consistently hitting the ball harder and farther than anybody in baseball. It is, in a word, indescribable. — Tim Keown

Why vote for Harper — and not Tatis? Tatis, who seems to lack his typically infectious energy since making the temporary move to the outfield, could be another shoulder subluxation away from his season coming to an abrupt end. Harper doesn’t have those concerns. And he has been scorching hot at the plate, batting .332/.448/.668 since the start of July. There’s no reason for that not to carry over into what will be a critical September for his Phillies. — Gonzalez

And the Cy Youngs will go to … ?

AL
Gerrit Cole 12
Lance Lynn 3
Robbie Ray 2

NL
Walker Buehler 12
Corbin Burnes 2
Zack Wheeler 2
Josh Hader 1

It’s Cole and Buehler by a mile. What gives them such a huge edge? This is really just a case of consistency meeting expectation, for both pitchers. To start the season, Cole and Jacob deGrom were the consensus best pitchers in the game. Cole started like a house on fire, fell off some after the new sticky-stuff enforcement (but not all that much, really) and has since resumed his place atop the pecking order. Buehler was probably more like the fourth- or fifth-best NL pitcher going into the season (by perception). Then deGrom got hurt, Clayton Kershaw got hurt, etc. Buehler has been the only elite NL hurler to exceed expectation over the course of the full season. Because Cole and Buehler are doing what they were supposed to do, there’s no reason to think it won’t continue to the end of the season. So they have become no-brainer Cy Young picks in their respective leagues. — Doolittle

Buehler? Buehler? Sorry, friends, but you biffed the NL Cy Young voting. What if I told you there’s a pitcher who leads all qualified starters in strikeouts per nine, ranks third in walks per nine and leads in homers per nine with a number nearly twice as good as the next guy? He is the Cy Young winner, right? Of course he is, which is why the choice of the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler over Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes is just wrong. The AL isn’t cut-and-dried, either, with Robbie Ray and Lance Lynn at least in Gerrit Cole’s neighborhood. But overlooking Burnes is silly. Buehler has been undeniable: an MLB-best 2.05 ERA, 176 innings pitched (ranking second overall), great peripherals. A vote for Buehler is understandable. It’s just not the right choice when Burnes is punching out 12.24 per nine, walking 1.68 in the same time period and allowing only five home runs in 139 innings. This much is for sure: The winner of the NL Cy Young almost certainly will have a last name that starts with B-U. — Passan

Why Josh Hader? I am getting more and more reluctant to give this award to a “starter.” The ability to win a game is so much more heavily dependent on the right matchups in the bullpen. Even the best starters do not complete games or even enter the seventh inning, let alone the ninth. That might not be their fault, but someone like Lance Lynn, who has had a great year, averages less than six innings per start. If Craig Kimbrel had the kind of year he is having but had been in the American League all season, he would deserve a lot of votes — just as someone like Ryan Pressly is worth considering. But as we know, there is a lot of baseball left and relievers’ numbers can implode with one bad outing. — Glanville

This has been the Year of Shohei Ohtani. What will be his final batting and pitching lines?

Average batting line: 49 HR, 107 RBIs, .262 BA

Average pitching line: 10-2, 159 SO, 3.07 ERA

As a group, we have Ohtani finishing just shy of 50 homers. You were the high vote — at 51. Why? Ohtani would need nine homers in September to get to 51, something he has done in two of the five months so far this season — in June, when he hit 13 homers, and in July, when he hit nine. August was Ohtani’s worst month at the plate — he slashed just .202/.345/.404 — but given that the Angels won’t be making the playoffs, all that’s left for September (and the first few days of October) is putting the cherry on top of his magical season. — Joon Lee

Looks like Mike Trout was right. Ohtani will finish with 50 homers, and 10 victories — which means that Trout’s preseason prediction of 30-plus homers and 10-plus wins for Ohtani will be right on. It’s been a frustrating, injury-plagued season for Trout, but he saw before anybody how extraordinary Ohtani’s season would be. — Olney

Ohtani … for Cy Young? Ohtani will get MVP votes and Cy Young votes. And I think he stays at his current pace. He has been amazingly consistent considering the many roles he is playing. That alone is amazing. My first full season as an everyday starter, I completely collapsed in September. It is hard enough to be an everyday player, let alone at this level in more than one major role. — Glanville

Make one bold prediction about the final stretch

In the American League …

The Yankees will win the AL East. — Marly Rivera

The Red Sox have appeared to be in deep trouble multiple times this year, and each time, mainly because of manager Alex Cora, they pull out of it and start winning again. The Yankees looked like they were going to run away with the first wild-card spot, then became the first team since the 1994 Royals to lose three in a row directly after winning 13 in a row. These teams are headed for a tie at the end of the regular season for the first wild-card spot. Then we will get Gerrit Cole against Chris Sale in a winner-take-all game. It can’t get much better than that. — Kurkjian

In the National League …

Atlanta has me believing. The Braves will double their lead in the division and win it by eight or more games, something that was inconceivable a month or so ago. — Rogers

The San Diego Padres will find their way and climb their way back to the playoffs. This is the first major obstacle that the Tatis-era Padres face, given the expectations placed on the team. This Padres core has the potential to be one of the defining teams of this era of baseball, but talent can take you only so far, especially in a sport with so many games. This squad clearly has the talent to go far in the postseason, but these Padres will need to overcome some obstacles and gain some experience under their belt to establish themselves as a serious postseason force. — Lee

The Brewers will tie the Giants with 100 wins and earn the NL’s No. 1 seed. Everyone’s talking about the exciting NL West race, but the Brewers boast three legit aces, the best one-two bullpen tandem and an emerging offense, especially after Christian Yelich hit .313 in August. Perhaps his power returns soon, too. This is a dangerous team, with an appealing September schedule, and definitely a World Series contender. — Eric Karabell

The Mets discourse gets even more dismal. I sent in that prediction before the Zack Scott DWI, marking the “thumbs down” circus as the spot from where I thought things would get worse — and they already have. The Mets are down to a single-digit percentage chance of making the playoffs and now there is widespread and well-founded concern about literally every single part of the organization. The Mets have two first-round draft picks next summer, but this group just oversaw the worst draft-related disaster in recent memory. The Mets should be competitive next year, but I don’t see them taking a step forward until at least 2023, unless drastic (and successful) changes are made. The changes part is looking more likely by the day, but the successful part is still an open question. — Kiley McDaniel

In both leagues …

The Phillies rally past the Braves to win the NL East and end the longest playoff drought in the NL and, in even more improbable fashion, the Mariners rally past the A’s and Red Sox to win the second wild card and end the longest playoff drought in the majors (since 2001). Since the Reds will also make the playoffs, the new longest playoff drought will belong to the Tigers and Angels, who last made it in 2014. — Schoenfield

As for individual players …

Logan Webb will become known far and wide. Webb has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 consecutive starts. He is proof that a sinker-slider guy who doesn’t rely on spin rate and the high fastball can still dominate major league hitters. He throws a “heavy ball” — “Like catching a shot put,” Giants catcher Curt Casali says — and his wipeout slider is becoming one of the best pitches in the game. One huge reason the Giants have been able to remain the best team in baseball: Second-half Webb has been first-half Kevin Gausman. Right now, he is the guy to start a wild-card game or the first game of a series. If you don’t know him, you will soon. Hitters already do. — Keown

The Royals’ Salvador Perez will not only blow by Johnny Bench’s record for homers by a primary catcher in a season, but he’ll also break Jorge Soler‘s Royals record (48) and become the first backstop to go deep 50 times. — Doolittle

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win the American League’s Triple Crown. Maybe that isn’t such a crazy thought, because as we closed on August, Vlad Jr. led the AL in runs, hits, on-base percentage, total bases and OPS+. His biggest challenge will be leading the AL in RBIs, given Jose Abreu‘s lead. But remember: Vlad Jr. has a bunch of games left against the Orioles, and White Sox manager Tony La Russa will be customizing Abreu’s workload to prepare him for October. — Olney

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Sports

NHL Power Rankings: Every team’s current pace vs. preseason projections

Published

5 hours ago

on

November 7, 2025

By

NHL Power Rankings: Every team's current pace vs. preseason projections

The 2025-26 NHL season turned one month old on Friday.

It’s way too early to draw firm conclusions, right?

Forget it. For this edition of the Power Rankings, we’ll be taking a look at the preseason over/under point totals compared to each team’s current points pace. Which teams are the furthest off their projections — in each direction?

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our list.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Oct. 31. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.

Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 75%

Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 123

One of seven teams with a triple-digit over/under in the preseason, the Avs are currently well ahead of that projection, with just one loss in regulation through 14 games.

Next seven days: @ EDM (Nov. 8), @ VAN (Nov. 9), vs. ANA (Nov. 11), vs. BUF (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 71.4%

Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 117.1

A surprise entrant in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Habs weren’t expected to be nearly this dominant in 2025-26. And yet, here we are.

Next seven days: vs. UTA (Nov. 8), vs. LA (Nov. 11), vs. DAL (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 69.2%

Preseason O/U: 97.5
Current points pace: 113.5

The sportsbooks expected the Jets to be well off their Presidents’ Trophy-winning pace of 116 from last season, but so far they are pushing the Avs atop the Central Division.

Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 7), @ ANA (Nov. 9), @ VAN (Nov. 11), @ SEA (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 71.4%

Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 117.1

A 2025 playoff team, the Devils were expected to be back in that situation again this coming spring — and so far, they’re ahead of last season’s pace.

Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 8), vs. NYI (Nov. 10), @ CHI (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 65.4%

Preseason O/U: 104.5
Current points pace: 107.2

One of the great Western powers continues to roll along, with Jack Eichel looking every bit the part of a leading Hart Trophy candidate.

Next seven days: vs. ANA (Nov. 8), vs. FLA (Nov. 10), vs. NYI (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 64.3%

Preseason O/U: 92.5
Current points pace: 105.4

Is Salt Lake City ready to host playoff hockey? The Mammoth appear to be trending in that direction, with one of the NHL’s most impressive young cores.

Next seven days: @ MTL (Nov. 8), @ OTT (Nov. 9), vs. BUF (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 69.2%

Preseason O/U: 105.5
Current points pace: 113.5

Finishing a season in triple digits in standings points is nothing new for the Canes, and they are on track to pull off the feat again by the end of this season.

Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 8), @ TOR (Nov. 9), vs. WSH (Nov. 11)

Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 73.1%

Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 119.8

An article from the season’s first week pondered whether the Ducks had built the next great Western power. Through the season’s first month, the answer is a resounding “yes!”

Next seven days: @ VGK (Nov. 8), vs. WPG (Nov. 9), @ COL (Nov. 11), @ DET (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 64.3%

Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 105.4

Is the “Yzerplan” finally coming to fruition, returning the Red Wings to their rightful place in the postseason?

Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 7), vs. CHI (Nov. 9), vs. ANA (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 66.7%

Preseason O/U: 77.5
Current points pace: 109.3

Much of the Penguins-oriented chatter this preseason revolved around whether Sidney Crosby would be traded to a contender. Well, apparently he’s already on a contender.

Next seven days: @ NJ (Nov. 8), vs. LA (Nov. 9)

Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60.7%

Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 99.6

The prognosticators expected an elite performance out of the Stars, and they’re getting near a 100-point pace so far. The big question is for the spring: Can this team finally get over the conference finals hump?

Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 8), vs. SEA (Nov. 9), @ OTT (Nov. 11), @ MTL (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60.7%

Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 99.6

Hey, sometimes the sportsbooks nail their projections! The question now is where that points pace gets the Leafs in the postseason mix.

Next seven days: vs. BOS (Nov. 8), vs. CAR (Nov. 9), @ BOS (Nov. 11), vs. LA (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 53.6%

Preseason O/U: 96.5
Current points pace: 87.9

Much like the Jets, the Capitals were expected to take a step back — and as of now, they certainly have.

Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 8), @ CAR (Nov. 11), @ FLA (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 61.5%

Preseason O/U: 78.5
Current points pace: 100.9

Aside from one playoff appearance (2023), the Kraken had been treading water — a stark contrast to the fearsome sea beast that serves as their moniker. New coach Lane Lambert seems to have gotten them pointed back in the right direction.

Next seven days: @ STL (Nov. 8), @ DAL (Nov. 9), vs. CBJ (Nov. 11), vs. WPG (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 60.7%

Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 99.6

After a simmering build the past two seasons, have the Flyers arrived as legitimate playoff contenders in Year 1 of the Rick Tocchet era?

Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 8), vs. EDM (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.3%

Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 87.5

The final season of legendary Kings center Anze Kopitar‘s career hasn’t gotten off to the start many expected.

Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 9), @ MTL (Nov. 11), @ TOR (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 57.1%

Preseason O/U: 101.5
Current points pace: 93.7

Just one win in the first seven games put the Lightning in a pretty deep hole; a subsequent five-game winning streak helped them dig out. Which is the real version of this team?

Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 8), vs. NYR (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 53.3%

Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 87.5

Throughout the summer and most of the preseason, many surmised that a lingering lack of a contract beyond 2025-26 for Connor McDavid would be a distraction hanging over the Oilers this season. McDavid inked his extension on the eve of the campaign, and yet the Oilers have sputtered out of the gates.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Nov. 8), vs. CBJ (Nov. 10), @ PHI (Nov. 12), @ CBJ (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.9%

Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 88.3

After the Blue Jackets were in the mix for a playoff spot up until the final weeks of the 2024-25 season, there was some belief that they’d get over the hump and back into the postseason this time around. They still might, but not at this pace.

Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 8), @ EDM (Nov. 10), @ SEA (Nov. 11), vs. EDM (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 56.3%

Preseason O/U: 80.5
Current points pace: 92.3

The Bruins are in a period of transition, as they wait for 2025 lottery pick James Hagens to take over as their franchise center. So far, they’ve been a bit better than most expected.

Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 8), vs. TOR (Nov. 11), @ OTT (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 53.6%

Preseason O/U: 67.5
Current points pace: 87.9

Speaking of better than expected … have the Blackhawks finally arrived as legitimate contenders? It’s probably too soon to go that far in describing Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar & Co., but the pieces are definitely in place for a serious run in the next few seasons.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 7), @ DET (Nov. 9), vs. NJ (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 53.6%

Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 87.9

An injury to captain Brady Tkachuk appeared to take the wind out of the Senators’ sails a bit. His return — likely sometime after American Thanksgiving — can’t come soon enough.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 8), vs. UTA (Nov. 9), vs. DAL (Nov. 11), vs. BOS (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 53.9%

Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 88.3

Thanks to what is becoming a historic rookie season for 2025 first pick Matthew Schaefer, the Isles are creeping into the must-watch category.

Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 7), @ NYR (Nov. 8), @ NJ (Nov. 10), @ VGK (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 53.6%

Preseason O/U: 106.5
Current points pace: 87.9

With Aleksander Barkov out for the regular season and Matthew Tkachuk out until sometime in December, it’s not surprising that the back-to-back champs have taken a (hopefully temporary) step backward.

Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 8), @ VGK (Nov. 10), vs. WSH (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 50%

Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 82

At some point, one presumes, the Sabres will end the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports. But one presumes this will not be the year it happens.

Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 8), @ UTA (Nov. 12), @ COL (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50%

Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 82

The Rangers have continually tinkered with their personnel over the past 12 months — including trading away Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller; acquiring J.T. Miller; and hiring Mike Sullivan as head coach. The new concoction hasn’t yielded better results yet.

Next seven days: @ DET (Nov. 7), vs. NYI (Nov. 8), vs. NSH (Nov. 10), @ TB (Nov. 12)

Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 46.7%

Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 76.5

The Canucks missed the playoffs by six points in 2024-25 — and are way off that pace so far in 2025-26.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 8), vs. COL (Nov. 9), vs. WPG (Nov. 11)

Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 43.8%

Preseason O/U: 86.5
Current points pace: 71.8

The big winners of 2024 free agency were one of the NHL’s biggest flops last season, finishing with 68 points. They’re currently a bit ahead of that pace but certainly not threatening for a playoff spot one month in.

Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 8), @ NYR (Nov. 10)

Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 43.3%

Preseason O/U: 94.5
Current points pace: 71.1

The Wild are scoring 2.80 goals this season, which is 22nd in the NHL. The Wild are allowing 3.67 goals per game, which is 29th (or fourth worst). That combo has not led to great results, as you might have guessed.

Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 7), vs. CGY (Nov. 9), vs. SJ (Nov. 11)

Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 46.4%

Preseason O/U: 70.5
Current points pace: 76.1

Last season’s fun bad team, the Sharks are … maybe not that bad anymore? Potential Canadian Olympian Macklin Celebrini, age 19, has 21 points through 14 games, good for a share of the league scoring lead.

Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 7), vs. FLA (Nov. 8), @ MIN (Nov. 11), @ CGY (Nov. 13)

Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 40%

Preseason O/U: 92.5
Current points pace: 65.6

Aside from Jordan Binnington‘s puck-stealing antics, there hasn’t been much to be excited about when it comes to the 2025-26 Blues. Then again, we’re old enough to remember what happened the last time this team got off to a really bad start.

Next seven days: vs. SEA (Nov. 8), vs. CGY (Nov. 11)

Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 33.3%

Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 54.7

Perhaps the 2024-25 season — when the Flames missed the playoffs because of a standings tiebreaker — was an aberration. Could the Flames again prioritize the future like they did during the 2024 trade season?

Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 7), @ MIN (Nov. 9), @ STL (Nov. 11), vs. SJ (Nov. 13)

Continue Reading

Sports

Breaking down Texas Tech’s tortilla toss tradition and why it’s banned

Published

5 hours ago

on

November 7, 2025

By

Breaking down Texas Tech's tortilla toss tradition and why it's banned

When No. 8 Texas Tech takes the field this Saturday against No. 7 BYU (12 p.m. ET, ABC), the on-field action between the two top-10 Big 12 teams may seem familiar, but something will be missing from the game’s opening kickoff aesthetic: tortillas won’t be flying in Jones AT&T Stadium.

The signature sign a Red Raiders football game is taking place has been around since the late 1980s — home or away. It reached its peak during the 1990s and has since become cemented in college football lore.

While meant for Texas Tech fans, even some players have taken part in the tradition.

Most recently, during Colorado‘s 2024 matchup against the Red Raiders in Lubbock, former two-way Heisman Trophy winner and current Jacksonville Jaguars WR/CB Travis Hunter snagged a tortilla that landed a few inches in front of him on the field seconds before a Texas Tech snap and stuffed it in his pants.

Midgame snack? Perhaps.

But the tradition seems to be over after the Big 12 doubled down on a cancellation.

Here is everything you need to know about Texas Tech’s tortilla tradition.

When and why did the tortilla toss begin?

In the late 1980s, Texas Tech fans would throw the lids of their 44-ounce Cokes onto the field, according to the Lubbock Avalanche Journal. Concessions discontinued the sales of the large sodas, resulting in fans resorting to a cheaper and easily accessible item: tortillas.

One theory traces the tradition back to 1992, when Texas Tech faced then-No. 5 Texas A&M in College Station and an announcer said there was “nothing but Tech football and a tortilla factory in Lubbock,” leading up to the game, prompting fans to toss tortillas in response.

When did the tortilla toss get banned?

Texas Tech officially announced the change to its game-day fan policy on Oct. 20, stating that objects thrown in Jones AT&T Stadium — name-dropping tortillas specifically — would result in immediate ejection and the prevention of future ticket privileges for the remainder of the season for the fans who commit the act.

The school also directly asked fans not to participate in the tortilla toss “at any point in the game.”

Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt and head coach Joey McGuire also announced the halt of the game-day tradition in a news conference that same day.

Why did the tortilla toss get banned?

In August, Big 12 athletic directors voted to penalize teams 15 yards after two warnings for objects being thrown onto the field. It was a 15-1 vote –Texas Tech’s Hocutt being the only AD to vote against the matter.

Hocutt was determined to find a way to keep the tortilla toss tradition alive, writing on social media after the decision: “the rules can change. But our tradition will not.”

Texas Tech then matched up with Kansas on Oct. 11 in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders were assessed two penalties for fans throwing tortillas in a 42-17 win. Following the victory, McGuire embraced Kansas head coach Lance Leipold at midfield, where the two had a heated exchange over the tortillas.

Leipold called out the Big 12 about the issue, saying it was “poorly handled.”

With the Red Raiders off to one of the best starts in school history, Hocutt and McGuire ultimately changed course on the tradition.

“We know that as Red Raiders, no one tells us what to do. We make our own decisions. This situation is on me. I leaned into throwing tortillas at the beginning of the football season. Now I must ask everyone to stop,” Hocutt said.

How is the tortilla toss ban being enforced?

Texas Tech says that it has installed a number of new surveillance cameras to help with security in Jones AT&T Stadium. It will refer to the cameras to point out violators who throw tortillas — or any other item — which could result in immediate ejection and the loss of future ticket privileges for the remainder of the season.

As for the Red Raiders program, officials will assess a warning before a 15-yard penalty and $100,000 fine is issued.

Continue Reading

Sports

‘I’ve never seen a D-line like this’: Texas Tech’s $7M offseason overhaul paying off

Published

5 hours ago

on

November 7, 2025

By

'I've never seen a D-line like this': Texas Tech's M offseason overhaul paying off

  • Max OlsonNov 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

    Close

    • Covers the Big 12
    • Joined ESPN in 2012
    • Graduate of the University of Nebraska

LUBBOCK, Texas — I have the deal of a lifetime for you. Give me a call, bro.

Minutes after David Bailey entered the transfer portal March 28, Texas Tech general manager James Blanchard sent him that text message. The pass rusher from Stanford didn’t respond. He wasn’t answering calls, either.

Blanchard reached out to Bailey’s agent, who informed him that the coveted transfer was leaning toward going to UCLA. But Blanchard wasn’t giving up that easily. That night, he tried appealing to Bailey with one more text.

David, give me 120 seconds to have a convo with you. If you’re not interested after that, I’ll leave you alone.

Bailey remembers he was hanging out at a friend’s house on a Friday night, back home after recently graduating from Stanford. He took the phone call out of curiosity. Bailey had been at the top of Blanchard’s list of edge rusher targets in December, and the GM was willing to pay whatever he wanted.

Texas Tech wasn’t just talking about going to $2 million. They were ultimately willing to make him the highest-paid defensive player in college football with a deal exceeding $3 million in compensation, sources familiar with the negotiation told ESPN. It’s possible no defender in college football has earned more in the NIL era.

“I took that call,” Bailey said, “and, yeah, everything changed for me.”

Within two days, Bailey was on Texas Tech’s campus for a visit. He still went on trips to Texas and UCLA, trying to gather as much information as he could ahead of a life-changing decision. But in the end, the Red Raiders made an offer he couldn’t refuse.

And just like that, Texas Tech has built what it believed to be the best defensive line in college football. Bailey and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) bringing nonstop pressure off the edge. Lee Hunter (UCF), Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) and A.J. Holmes Jr. (Houston) wreaking havoc inside. Five hand-picked players out of the portal who could transform not just their front but their entire defense.

Blanchard knew it when he first spoke with Bailey. “I’m telling you this is going to be the outcome,” he remembers saying. Bailey asked what made him so certain.

“The Big 12 isn’t equipped to deal with this,” Blanchard said.

The Red Raiders invested more than $7 million to secure these newcomers along the defensive line. They’ve been worth every penny for a program chasing its first Big 12 title and now ranks No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Saturday’s game with unbeaten BYU (12 p.m. ET, ABC).

Bailey is the national sack leader with 11.5 and well on his way to becoming a first-round pick. He and Height, whom Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire lovingly refers to both as “Velociraptors,” are two of the most destructive pass rushers in the sport. Hunter, their star defensive tackle, is enjoying a career-best year. The Red Raiders have generated an FBS-high 175 pressures through nine games and needed just seven games to surpass their 2024 season sack total.

Now, BYU and “College GameDay” come to town in the Red Raiders’ most anticipated and consequential home game since they stunned Texas in 2008. Texas Tech assembled the most talented defensive line this program has seen — and spent all those millions — for moments like these.

“Ever since we walked in the building, I told Lee, ‘Man, this team is going to be special. We’re going to go a long way. This team is going to go far,'” Height said. “Lee was like, ‘We’re going to see.’ But now we all see.”

ROMELLO HEIGHT DOESN’T hesitate to explain why he picked Texas Tech last December.

“I’m not shy to tell you about this NIL,” he said. “It’s all over the internet now.”

Height said he made $250,000 last year at Georgia Tech. His agent was seeking a raise to $500,000 ahead of Height’s senior season, a number he felt was fair market value, but was rebuffed. The 6-foot-3, 240-pound outside linebacker had a good year for the Yellow Jackets after transferring from USC, totalling a team-high 29 pressures off the edge, but finished with only 2.5 sacks. Height insists he wasn’t looking to leave.

“They were like, ‘Nah, we overpaid him already,'” Height said. “So, my agent was like, ‘All right, we’re going to go get overpaid somewhere else.'”

Height was a big priority for Blanchard. He had watched tape of 50 other defensive ends and outside linebackers, and felt strongly that Height had all the traits he was looking for as the top pass rusher available in the December portal period. Blanchard wasn’t concerned about the lack of sack production. The way he sees it, sacks are 1% of the equation, and Height does the other 99% of his job at a high level, consistently forcing QBs to move off their spot.

“People were trying to say it was other guys, but Romello was the best one,” Blanchard said. “Y’all don’t know what y’all are looking at.”

His value in Texas Tech’s estimation: $1.5 million.

“Super jaw-dropping,” Height said.

The Red Raiders made the decision even easier for Height when they signed Hunter. The two were close friends from playing together at Auburn in 2021 and eager to reunite.

Hunter, the massive 6-foot-4, 330-pound defensive tackle from UCF whom teammates nicknamed “The Fridge,” entered the portal after coach Guz Malzahn left to become the OC at Florida State. Hunter had a lot of loyalty to Malzahn, who had recruited him since he was a high school freshman, and felt ready for a fresh start.

He lined up visits to Texas Tech followed by Texas, but committed during his trip to Lubbock. While he felt at home on the visit, he credits his mother for encouraging his decision. He said she has always been good at reading people and their “energy and vibe,” and she was totally won over by the warmth and authenticity of McGuire.

“When your mama keeps telling you something, you got to go with it, you know?” Hunter said. “Probably one of the best decisions I ever made in my life.”

The next morning, Hunter and Blanchard were at breakfast, and Texas kept calling.

“He said, ‘Don’t worry, Blanch, I gave my word, we good,'” Blanchard said.

Hunter flew to DFW International Airport on his way home to Mobile, Alabama. He said Longhorn coaches were waiting for him at the airport, in a last-ditch effort to get him on a flight to Austin.

“Me and my mom didn’t have much time to talk because we had like 10 minutes to get to the next gate,” Hunter said. “We kept walking. I got on a plane and went to Alabama and came back a Red Raider.”

Texas Tech paired him with two more key defensive tackles in Gill-Howard from Northern Illinois and Holmes from Houston. Many coaches were hesitant to pursue Gill-Howard based on his size (he was listed at 6-foot-1 and 285 pounds), lack of starting experience and concerns he might not perform at the Power 4 level.

Blanchard had stumbled upon him during the scouting process and trusted what he saw on tape, a disruptive player on a top-25 defense who played well against Notre Dame. He felt comfortable taking a chance on Holmes, a 16-game starter who had just played for new Red Raiders defensive coordinator Shiel Wood at Houston. Wood believed he hadn’t come close to reaching his ceiling.

All four of those moves might’ve been more than enough for Texas Tech as it aspired to build the top portal recruiting class in college football. But then, in the middle of spring practice, Bailey hit the portal after Stanford fired coach Troy Taylor.

It wasn’t hard for Blanchard to sell him to Wood. The defensive coordinator said Bailey was a “two-clipper.”

“You watch two clips and say, ‘Yeah, I like him. Absolutely,'” Wood said with a laugh. “I was like, ‘If there’s a possibility of getting this guy to come here and y’all think you can make that happen, please do so. We’ll find a spot for him to play.'”

Height was a big fan of that idea, too. McGuire needed a little more convincing.

“We’re halfway through the spring, and Romello is just unblockable,” McGuire said. “I go, ‘You’re telling me he’s better than him?'”

As they watched Bailey’s Stanford film together, McGuire knew he was a “no-brainer” evaluation just like Height and Hunter. But did Tech really need him? Blanchard kept talking him up and explaining how they could get Bailey enrolled immediately for spring practice. Then, Blanchard brought up the defending Super Bowl champs.

“What would the Eagles do? They’d take another defensive lineman.”

Bailey arrived in Lubbock in time to go through the Red Raiders’ final spring practices. As he watched Height, Hunter and Gill-Howard compete in one-on-ones, Bailey was blown away.

“I’ve never seen a D-line like this,” he said. “I’ve seen some high-caliber skill players. But a D-line like this? This is different.”

BAILEY CAME TO Texas Tech to finally win some football games.

He hasn’t seen anything close to this, enduring three consecutive 3-9 seasons at Stanford. He was underutilized last year, playing 20 to 30 snaps a game and special teams for much of the season. What he sought most in the portal — more than the money — was a team that would play as much as possible.

“I’m playing free and I’m playing fast,” he said, “because I know I got guys around me.”

Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech’s All-America senior linebacker, keeps coming back to the word “unreal” as he attempts to describe what the Red Raiders have put together on defense.

“I’ve never played football like this,” Rodriguez said. “It’s all 11 people on the field flying around and doing their job and executing at a high level. It makes football so simple and so easy. I’ve never had this much fun playing football ever.”

It wasn’t fun for Texas Tech’s offense in practices this offseason.

Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich said there were a few days when his unit couldn’t get a first down. After Texas Tech’s second spring scrimmage, he overheard tackle Howard Sampson lamenting to Blanchard, “Man, I don’t know, we’re going to suck on offense.” McGuire reminded a frustrated Clay McGuire, Tech’s offensive line coach, that it wasn’t a fair fight for the No. 2 offensive line in practice because Texas Tech’s No. 2 defensive line was made up of last year’s starters.

“Mello and David were running so fast around the edge, beating the tackle so bad, that they were running into each other before they hit the quarterback,” Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton said.

“I’m telling him to slow down, bro!” Height said with a laugh. “It takes me three seconds. It takes him 1½ seconds.”

Any concerns about how these highly paid free agents might be welcomed by this new team were squashed from the start. Morton said the newcomers didn’t act like mercenaries “just trying to get money.” They fit right in far better than most would expect in the increasingly transactional portal era.

“They’ve connected so well with this team that it really does feel like Lee Hunter and Romello Height have been here their entire career,” McGuire said. “I hope they feel that way, that they feel at home.”

McGuire and Blanchard did their homework on these transfers, calling their former coaches to find out everything they needed to know. The process of identifying the right players for Texas Tech went far beyond the tape and included input from a sports analytics firm — as well as from the folks cutting the checks.

Blanchard kept billionaire boosters Cody Campbell and John Sellers involved in the portal process from start to finish, getting together for countless meetings and videoconference sessions where they’d watch film and discuss targets and what it would cost to go get them. Campbell would even queue up film on his tablet to break down at home.

“That was a lot of fun, to be honest with you,” Campbell said.

Campbell, Texas Tech’s board chairman, was a starting offensive lineman for the Red Raiders during his playing days and tends to keep his eyes affixed on the line of scrimmage during games. As exciting as it was to piece together a highly touted portal class, Campbell’s objective from the start was winning in the trenches.

Once Bailey was on board, Campbell was confident they’d assembled the best defensive line in Texas Tech history. That’s what he’s seeing every Saturday.

“They didn’t miss on anybody,” Campbell said. “It helps a lot with keeping donors happy whenever they see that return on investment.”

Blanchard has a theory about guys such as Bailey and Hunter and why they’ve proven to be ideal fits, something he picked up as a scout with the Carolina Panthers in 2020: He likes the best players on losing teams.

All they’ve ever done during their careers is go above and beyond to help make up for the talent around them. They’re used to having to strain, sacrifice and do more for their team to be competitive.

“Let’s put them in an environment where now they’ve got dudes around them,” Blanchard said, “and let’s see what happens.”

As the Red Raiders made their way through the tunnel into Jones AT&T Stadium to a sold-out crowd for a Saturday night kickoff against Kansas earlier this season, Hunter ran beside Height and let out a roar.

“I looked up,” Hunter remembers, “and I said, ‘This is what the f— we signed up for!'”

IT’S A RACE to the quarterback every time Texas Tech’s defensive line gets an opportunity to rush the passer.

“Nobody’s looking at each other,” Height said. “We’re looking at the ball. It’s time to go get it. It’s money time.”

Against Kansas State on Saturday, Bailey burst past the Wildcats’ right tackle on a third down and crashed into quarterback Avery Johnson within 2.2 seconds. In the fourth quarter, Height hunted him down from behind for a sack and forced fumble that Tech linebacker John Curry scooped up for a score.

After a long afternoon of hard hits, scrambles and incompletions in a 43-20 defeat, Johnson was asked if Texas Tech’s D-line was as good as advertised.

“Uh, yeah, I would say so,” Johnson said. “That’s probably the best defense I’ve faced in my three years in college.”

Texas Tech has built a top-five scoring defense thanks to an overwhelming amount of pressure up front.

The Red Raiders have generated 175 pass rush pressures this season, according to ESPN Research, despite blitzing only 20% of the time. Bailey (46) and Height (37) rank first and third, respectively, in edge pressures this season, and Holmes ranks fourth in defensive tackle pressures (18) since stepping in for Gill-Howard, who’s sidelined after undergoing surgery for an ankle injury last month. Together, they’ve already broken Texas Tech’s single-game record with nine sacks against Kansas.

“It’s a tremendous advantage when you can get pressure with four, and that’s what we’re able to do,” Wood said. “We’re able to affect the quarterback with rushing four guys on first, second and third down. It changes the complexion of the game when you can do that.”

From Day 1, though, Wood preached to his players that they had to earn the right to rush the passer. If they wanted to be a championship defense, he said, they had to stop the run. The Red Raiders have the No. 1 run defense in the country, holding six of nine opponents under 100 rushing yards, and have an FBS-high 16 forced fumbles.

But ask anyone in the program why they’re elite against the run and they point to Hunter. He’s doing the dirty work, taking on two or three linemen and creating clear gaps and easy plays for Rodriguez and the linebackers.

“I know I’m going to get two,” Hunter said. “If two people are on me, my linebackers can eat. My brothers can eat. As long as everybody around me is eating and we’re winning, I’m happy.”

Another critical byproduct of the dominance up front: Texas Tech has the most improved pass defense in the country, allowing 111 fewer passing yards per game than a year ago. Tie it all together, like Wood has with sharp in-game adjustments and a variety of creative alignments, and you get a defense that makes game-changing plays and has helped create 88 points off turnovers.

“It’s not easy to get something built and up and running at a high level in Year 1,” Wood said, “We’re sitting here because of the great effort that our players have put in.”

Blanchard knew if he got the right players up front, Tech could overwhelm its conference foes. Over the past decade, the Big 12 has produced two offensive linemen selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Both came from Oklahoma, now in the SEC. The first big test came in the Big 12 opener at Utah, against two potential first-round tackles in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu and an offensive line that Utah’s Kyle Whittingham called the best he has ever coached.

“That week, everybody was hyping us up, saying, ‘Y’all are going to kill them,'” Height said. “I didn’t hear David say a word about killing them that whole week. I dang sure didn’t say a word about killing them. We have a humble mindset going into every game, knowing we just got to do our job.”

The results? Texas Tech’s defense got 19 pressures and forced six three-and-outs and four turnovers in a 34-10 rout.

“I never would’ve believed it if you would’ve said we would lose the line of scrimmage,” Whittingham said afterward. “Never would’ve believed that in a million years. But we did.”

Bailey is performing like a first-rounder and is the No. 12 pick in Jordan Reid’s latest 2026 mock draft. Hunter is Mel Kiper’s third-ranked defensive tackle prospect, and Height is his No. 5 outside linebacker. All three have significantly boosted their draft status at Texas Tech. And that proof of concept is making it even easier for Blanchard to assemble next year’s defensive line.

Texas Tech has landed commitments from LaDamion Guyton, ESPN’s No. 1 outside linebacker in the 2026 class, and top-ranked 2027 defensive tackle Jalen Brewster. And through his daily conversations with agents, Blanchard already knows which potential transfers he wants for 2026.

“We say it all the time now,” McGuire said. “I was literally just saying to him, ‘Blanch, just go get the D-linemen and O-linemen.'”

Texas Tech’s defense used to be a punchline in the Big 12, the second worst among all Power 5 programs in scoring defense over the past decade. Not anymore. The Red Raiders will keep spending and keep bringing blue-chip big men to Lubbock. That’s what it takes to contend with the best and do what has never been done in program history.

“We told Joey to spend what it takes,” Campbell said. “We were willing to do it to be in this position we’re in now.

“We got our money’s worth.”

Continue Reading

Trending