IEEFA Says New Coal Power Plants In India Will Become Stranded Assets
In theory, economics is pretty simple stuff. If Farmer A is selling apples 4 for a dollar and Farmer B is selling them 5 for a dollar, who you gonna call when you need apples? Farmer B, of course. You’d be crazy to pay more for apples than you need to, especially if you hope to resell them and become the Jeff Bezos of the apple world.
Now imagine you are a native of India and want to supply electricity to the teeming masses. You can either build coal-fired generating stations that cost more to operate or build renewable energy resources like solar and wind farms that cost less to operate. Once again, you’d be crazy to select the more expensive option, but that is just what India plans to do? Why? Because coal is like a religion and common sense rarely applies to theological discussions.
The Institute For Energy Economics And Financial Analysis says India is hell bent on building a fleet of new coal-fired generating stations — 33 gigawatts (GW) currently under construction and another 29 GW in pre-construction. All of them will wind up being stranded assets, says Kashish Shah, a research analyst at IEEFA. “Coal-fired power simply cannot compete with the ongoing cost reductions of renewables. Solar tariffs in India are now below even the fuel costs of running most existing coal-fired power plants.
“In the last 12 months no new coal-fired power plants have been announced, and there has been no movement in the 29 GW of pre-construction capacity. This reflects the lack of financing available for new coal fired power projects, and also the flattening of electricity demand growth, which has impacted coal the most.”
Despite such headwinds, the Central Electricity Authority still projects India will reach 267 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2030. That will require adding 58 GW of net new capacity additions, or about 6.4 GW annually.
IEEFA says it is “highly improbable” that the CEA’s projections will materialize, given the ongoing financial and operational stress in the thermal power sector, which means India’s coal capacity plans should be urgently revised.
“Any projections for India’s future generation mix should take into account that new coal-fired power plants are likely to become stranded assets,” says Shah. “The new capacity would only be economically viable if it replaced end-of-life, polluting power plants with outdated combustion technology and locations remote to coal mines.
“Even then, there would need to be sufficient coal plant flexibility to deliver power into periods of peak demand, and the time-of-day pricing would need to be high enough to justify the low over the day utilisation rates.”
Shah adds that without material growth in electricity demand, installing additional inflexible high-emissions baseload capacity will increase the financial distress of state-owned distribution companies by adding to their burden of paying fixed-capacity charges to thermal power plants that are used only sparingly.
The International Energy Agency’s road map for reaching net zero emissions by 2050 recommends no new investment in fossil fuel supply projects, and no further final investment decisions for new unabated coal plants. IEEFA notes there is little appetite from private investors to risk new capital in a sector that continues to carry US$40–60 billion of non-performing or stranded assets.
Only India’s state-owned Power Finance Corporation and Rural Electrification Corporation continue to tout new coal-fired power capacity, but that may have more to do with politics than economics. Nearly half of the 33 GW of capacity now under construction in India is sponsored by those state-owned companies. IEEFA suggests they should “walk away” from those “under construction” projects now to avoid the risk of them sitting idle after they are completed.
“Governments, investors and utilities across the globe are rapidly transitioning to cheaper domestic zero emissions renewable energy,” says Shah. “India should be taking advantage of the falling cost of renewables plus rising viability of battery storage, which can provide clean grid-firming, to meet incremental power demand.
“Accelerating renewable energy capacity commissioning is critical to lower India’s overall energy costs and support faster electrification of transportation and other industries. Ultra-low cost renewables would also enable development of a green hydrogen economy to strengthen India’s long-term objective of energy security.” Seems like basic economics to us.
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No matter how badly a fleet wants to electrify their operations and take advantage of reduced fuel costs and TCO, the fact remains that there are substantial up-front obstacles to commercial EV adoption … or are there? We’ve got fleet financing expert Guy O’Brien here to help walk us through it on today’s fiscally responsible episode of Quick Charge!
This conversation was motivated by the recent uncertainty surrounding EVs and EV infrastructure at the Federal level, and how that turmoil is leading some to believe they should wait to electrify. The truth? There’s never been a better time to make the switch!
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Vermont’s EV adoption has surged by an impressive 41% over the past year, with nearly 18,000 EVs now registered statewide.
According to data from Drive Electric Vermont and the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, 17,939 EVs were registered as of January 2025, increasing by 5,185 vehicles. Notably, over 12% of all new cars registered last year in Vermont had a plug. Additionally, used EVs are gaining popularity, accounting for about 15% of new EV registrations.
To put it in perspective, Vermont took six years to register its first 5,000 EVs – and the last 5,000 were added in just the previous year.
Rapid growth, expanding infrastructure
In just two years, Vermont has doubled its fleet of EVs, underscoring residents’ enthusiasm for electric driving. To support this surge, the state now boasts 459 public EV chargers, including 92 DC fast chargers.
The EV mix in Vermont is leaning increasingly toward BEVs, which represent 60% of the state’s EV fleet. The remaining 40% consists of PHEVs, offering flexible fuel options for drivers.
Top EV models in Vermont
Vermont’s favorite EVs in late 2024 included the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Nissan Ariya, Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV, Tesla Model Y, and the Ford F-150 Lightning. These vehicles have appealed to Vermont drivers looking for reliability, performance, and practical features that work well in Vermont’s climate.
Leading the US in reducing emissions
This strong adoption of EVs earned Vermont the top ranking from the Natural Resources Defense Council for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in transportation in 2023. “It’s only getting easier for Vermonters to drive electric,” noted Michele Boomhower, Vermont’s Department of Transportation director. She emphasized the growing variety of EV models, including electric trucks and SUVs with essential features like all-wheel drive, crucial for Vermont’s climate and terrain.
Local dealerships boost EV accessibility
Nucar Automall, an auto dealer in St. Albans, is a great example of local support driving this trend. With help from Efficiency Vermont’s EV dealer incentives – receiving $25,000 through the EV Readiness Incentive program – it recently installed 15 EV chargers for new buyers and existing drivers to use.
“Having these chargers on the lot makes it easier for customers to see just how simple charging an EV can be,” said Ryan Ortiz, general manager at Nucar Automall. Ortiz also pointed out the growing affordability of EVs, thanks to more models becoming available and an increase in pre-owned EVs coming off leases.
Read more: Vermont becomes the first US state to pass a law requiring Big Oil to pay for climate damage
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Elon Musk said Tesla’s self-driving will start contributing to the company’s profits… wait for it… “next year” with “millions of Tesla robotaxis in operation during the second half of the year.”
The claim has become a running joke, as he has made it for the last decade.
During Tesla’s conference call following the release of its Q1 2025 financial results, Musk updated shareholders about Tesla’s self-driving plans, which he again presented as critical to the company’s future.
He made a series of claims, mainly updating timelines about Tesla’s self-driving efforts.
Here are the main comments:
- The CEO reiterated that Tesla will launch its paid autonomous ride-sharing service in Austin in June.
- He did clarify that the fleet will consist of Model Y vehicles and not the new Cybercab.
- Musk also confirmed that Tesla is currently training a fleet specifically for Austin.
- As we previously reported, this internal ride-hailing fleet operating in a geo-fenced with teleoperation assist is a big change from Tesla’s approach.
- Musk said “10 to 20 vehicles” on day one.
- Musk said that Tesla’s self-driving will start contributing positively to the company financially in the middle of next year, and “There will be millions of Teslas operating autonomously in the second half of next year.”
- Musk has literally said something similar every year for the past decade and therefore, it’s hard to take him seriously.
- The CEO claimed that Tesla would get “a 90-something percentage market share” in the autonomous market.
- Musk again claimed that no one else is getting close to Tesla’s capacity, and he criticized Waymo for being too expensive.
- Musk is “confident” that the first Model Y will drive itself from the factory to a customer’s home later this year.
- The CEO said that he is confident that Tesla will deliver “unsupervised full self-driving” in consumer vehicles by the end of the year.
Despite Tesla missing earnings expectations by a wide margin, the company’s stock rose 4% in after-hours trading following Musk’s comments, indicating that shareholders still believe Musk’s self-driving predictions, despite his predictions having been incorrect for almost a decade.
Electrek’s Take
The first point I believe will happen. Tesla needs it to happen. It badly needs a win on the self-driving front.
However, as we previously explained, while Tesla will claim a win in June, it will be with a limited geo-fenced and teleoperation-assisted system that won’t scale to customer vehicles, which is what has been promised for years.
Tesla was even asked how it plans to launch this in Austin in June, when FSD in consumer vehicles currently requires frequent interventions from drivers, and Ashok, Tesla’s head of autonomous driving, admitted his team is currently focused on solving the intervention specifically related to driving in Austin.
With training on specific Austin routes and using teleoperations, Tesla can make that happen, but the road between that and unsupervised self-driving in consumer vehicles and “million of Tesla robotaxis” in the second of next year is a long one.
Basically, other than the first point, I believe Tesla will not achieve any of the other on anything close to the timelines announced by Musk today.
I’m willing to take bets on that.
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