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2010–2020 Showed Strong Wins For Wind & Solar In China, Nuclear Lagging

In 2014, I made the strong assertion that China’s track record on wind and nuclear generation deployments showed clearly that wind energy was more scalable. In 2019, I returned to the subject, and assessed wind, solar and nuclear total TWh of generation, asserting that wind and solar were outperforming nuclear substantially in total annual generation, and projected that the two renewable forms of generation would be producing 4 times the total TWh of nuclear by 2030 each year between them. Mea culpa: in the 2019 assessment, I overstated the experienced capacity factor for wind generation in China, which still lags US experiences, but has improved substantially in the past few years.

My thesis on scalability of deployment has remained unchanged: the massive numerical economies of scale for manufacturing and distributing wind and solar components, combined with the massive parallelization of construction that is possible with those technologies, will always make them faster and easier to scale in capacity and generation than the megaprojects of GW-scale nuclear plants. This was obvious in 2014, it was obviously true in 2019, and it remains clearly demonstrable today. Further, my point was that China was the perfect natural experiment for this assessment, as it was treating both deployments as national strategies (an absolute condition of success for nuclear) and had the ability and will to override local regulations and any NIMBYism. No other country could be used to easily assess which technologies could be deployed more quickly.

In March of this year I was giving the WWEA USA+Canada wind energy update as part of WWEA’s regular round-the-world presentation by industry analysts in the different geographies. My report was unsurprising. In 2020’s update, the focus had been on what the impact of COVID-19 would be on wind deployments around the world. My update focused on the much greater focus on the force majeure portions of wind construction contracts, and I expected that Canada and the USA would miss expectations substantially. The story was much the same in other geographies. And that was true for Canada, the USA and most of the rest of the geographies.

But China surprised the world in 2020, deploying not only 72 GW of wind energy, vastly more than expected, but also 48 GW of solar capacity. The wind deployment was a Chinese and global record for a single country, and the solar deployment was over 50% more than the previous year. Meanwhile, exactly zero nuclear reactors were commissioned in 2020.

And so, I return to my analysis of Chinese low-carbon energy deployment, looking at installed capacity and annual added extra generation.

Grid-connections of nameplate capacity of wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020

Grid-connections of nameplate capacity of wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020 chart by author

I’ve aggregated this added additional capacity from multiple sources, including the World Nuclear Association, the Global Wind Energy Council, and the International Energy Agency’s photovoltaic material. In three of the 11 years from 2010 to 2020, China attached no nuclear generation to the grid at all. It’s adding more this year, but the year is not complete.

The solar and wind programs had been started in the mid-2000s, and wind energy initially saw much greater deployments. Having paid much more attention to wind energy than solar for the past decade, I was surprised that solar capacity deployments exceeded wind energy in 2017 and 2018, undoubtedly part of why solar was on track to double China’s 2020 target for the technology, while wind energy was only expected to reach 125% of targets. Nuclear was lagging targets substantially, and there was no expectation of achieving them. In 2019, the clear indication was that China would make substantially higher targets for wind and solar, and downgrade their expectations for nuclear, which has been borne out.

But nameplate capacity doesn’t matter as much as actual generation. As stated in the mea culpa, wind energy in China has underperformed. This was assessed in a Letter in the journal Environmental Research by European and North American researchers in 2018.

“Our findings underscore that the larger gap between actual performance and technical potential in China compared to the United States is significantly driven by delays in grid connection (14% of the gap) and curtailment due to constraints in grid management (10% of the gap), two challenges of China’s wind power expansion covered extensively in the literature. However, our findings show that China’s underperformance is also driven by suboptimal turbine model selection (31% of the gap), wind farm siting (23% of the gap), and turbine hub heights (6% of the gap)—factors that have received less attention in the literature and, crucially, are locked-in for the lifetime of wind farms.”

Some of the capacity factor issues are locked in, and some aren’t, but overall wind energy in China’s capacity is well below that of the US fleet still. I’ve adjusted capacity factors for wind energy to be 21% at the beginning of the decade, and up to 26% for 2020 deployments, still well below US experience. Solar, on the other hand, is less susceptible to some of the challenges of that impede wind energy’s generation, and the Chinese experienced median of 20% is used throughout the decade. China’s nuclear fleet has had much better ability to connect to the grid, and as the reactors are new, they aren’t being taken offline for substantial maintenance yet. The average capacity factor for the fleet of 91.1% for the decade is used.

Generation in TWh added each year by wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020

Generation in TWh added each year by wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020

And this tells the tale. Even adjusted for the poor capacity factor’s wind experienced and the above global average capacity factor for nuclear, in no year did the nuclear fleet add more actual generation than wind energy. The story is more mixed in the solar vs nuclear story, but only once in the past five years was more annual generation in TWh added by the nuclear program than by solar. And as a reminder, the Chinese wind and solar deployment programs started well over a decade after the nuclear program which saw its first grid connections in 1994.

What is also interesting to see is that the reversal in wind and solar deployments in China in the past two years. 2019 and 2020 saw double or more than double the actual generation in TWh added by wind than solar. To be clear, some of this is uptick is due to an expected and subsequently announced elimination of federal subsidies for utility-scale solar, commercial solar and onshore wind projects in 2021.

“The new rule, effective from Aug. 1, follows a drastic fall in manufacturing costs for solar and wind devices amid booming renewable capacity in China.”

This appears to have driven Chinese 2020 wind energy deployments to ensure that they would receive the compensation, just as US deployments have seen significant surges and lulls due to changes in the production tax credit. As a result, there is speculation that the announced wind generation capacity is not as fully completed as announced. However, that should not change the expected capacity factors for the coming years, and so I’ve left the 120 TWh projected delivery from the wind farms deployed in 2020 as is.

It’s worth noting that as of today, 7 of the 10 largest wind turbine manufacturers, and 9 of the 10 largest solar component manufacturers are Chinese companies. China remains, as I pointed out a couple of years ago, the only scaled manufacturer of many of the technologies necessary for decarbonization. Further, it’s expanding its market share in those technologies rapidly.

My 2014 thesis continues to be supported by the natural experiment being played out in China. In my recent published assessment of small modular nuclear reactors (tl’dr: bad idea, not going to work), it became clear to me that China has fallen into one of the many failure conditions of rapid deployment of nuclear, which is to say an expanding set of technologies instead of a standardized single technology, something that is one of the many reasons why SMRs won’t be deployed in any great numbers.

Wind and solar are going to be the primary providers of low-carbon energy for the coming century, and as we electrify everything, the electrons will be coming mostly from the wind and sun, in an efficient, effective and low-cost energy model that doesn’t pollute or cause global warming. Good news indeed that these technologies are so clearly delivering on their promise to help us deal with the climate crisis.

 

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This battery pack makes Tesla Roadster 400 lbs lighter, but it ain’t cheap

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This battery pack makes Tesla Roadster 400 lbs lighter, but it ain't cheap

A battery pack manufacturer has released a new solution for Tesla Roadster with aging battery packs. It would slash the car’s weight by about 400 lbs, but it’s not cheap.

In many ways, the Tesla Roadster sparked the electric vehicle revolution.

It was the first commercially available consumer EV with lithium battery cells – enabling over 200 miles of range on a single charge.

The vehicle had comparable or better performance than many other gas-powered vehicles in its segment.

The Roadster had its problem. It was a suboptimal solution as it was still heavily based on the Lotus Elise and not designed from the ground up to be electric, but it did its job as a proof-of-concept.

Tesla only manufactured about 2,000 of them between 2008 and 2011 before moving on to the Model S and other vehicle programs that were built to be electric from the ground up.

Despite being 13 to 16 years old, many Roadsters are still doing well. Electrek’s own Jamie Dow drives his daily. That’s despite Tesla not doing anything with the Roadster program since 2017 when it launched the Roadster 3.0 replacement pack.

Battery technology has improved a lot since then, and a company has decided to take advantage of that and offer a new battery pack for Tesla Roadster owners.

re/cell, a Texas-based supplier of remanufactured battery packs for EVs, has unveiled a new Roadster battery pack that aims to slash hundreds of pounds off of the sports car.

Unlike Tesla’s latest vehicles, which are equipped with skateboard-like platform battery packs, the Roadster has a pack that sits behind the seats in the back and the modules are in the shape seen above.

It does cause problems with balancing the weight of the vehicle.

The pack is able to achieve the Roadster’s peak power output, but it should be a lot more fun to drive by shaving up to 400 lbs off of the car’s original 2,877 lb (1,305 kg) weight.

It does come with a lower energy capacity than the original 53 kWh, but you should be able to achieve very similar range (over 220 miles) thanks to the efficiency gain from the weight loss.

Here are the full specs of re/cell’s new Roadster battery replacement pack:

  • Peak Power Output: 260 kW / 285 kW
  • Weight Savings: up to 400 lbs / 180 kg
  • Volume Savings: 3.7 cu ft / 100 liters
  • Energy Capacity: 38 kWh / 47 kWh
  • Rated Range: 220-240 miles / 350-390 km
  • Cell Type: 18650 / 3500 mAh
  • Cell Configuration: 31p99s / 39p99s

re/cell describes some of the improvements that they were able to make to the pack:

The revolutionary cooling-block design is a single-piece molded core with Palladium-class cooling ribbons for improved cooling and temperature management. The contact area for heat transfer is 50x larger than the cooling tubes used in the original Roadster sheets and the overall surface area for cooling and heating is now more than double. No more vacant cooling voids allowing for hot spots or uneven cooling or heating – the entire cell is now fully encapsulated and temperature controlled!

However, this offer is not going to be for everyone since Roadster owners need to be willing to invest $28,000 in their aging vehicle, which is the price of the pack if you give your existing pack to re/cell.

Interestingly, the company is also thinking about offering other upgrades that can be enabled by space freed up by the new pack.

For example, re/cell believes it would be easier to make the pack capable of DC fast-charging. liquid cooling for the PEM and Motor 

Electrek’s Take

I really enjoyed driving the Roadster 3.0, and I’d be curious to see how much better it would handle with 14% less weight.

There are just no other electric vehicles out there that weigh just 2,400 lbs. Even a Fiat 500e weighs nearly 3,000 lbs.

I can’t wait for small electric sports cars around 2,500 lbs. They should be so much fun and it sounds like this, despite not being designed from the ground up for it, could be an interesting preview.

And there’s not better way to power your electric sports car than with solar. If you want to make sure you’re finding a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage. EnergySage is a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar – whether you’re a homeowner or renter. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, including some who install Tesla products like Powerwalls. They ensure you get high-quality solutions and save 20 to 30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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GM is offering $1,000 off select Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC EV models for Veterans Day

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GM is offering ,000 off select Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC EV models for Veterans Day

GM is honoring those who served our country with a new incentive to go electric. For Veterans Day and through November, GM is offering $1,000 off select Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC EV models. Here’s how you can score some savings this month.

GM EV offers for Veterans Day and November 2024

GM launched a new military appreciation offer this month, offering $1,000 off on select electric models to those who served.

The offer is good on most 2023, 2024, and 2025 electric models from GM’s Chevy, GMC, and Cadillac brands. Electric models included in the deal include the following:

  • 2023, 2024, and 2025 GMC Hummer EV
  • 2023, 2024, and 2025 Cadillac Lyriq
  • 2024, 2025 Chevy Blazer EV
  • 2024, 2025 Chevy Equinox EV
  • 2024, 2025 Chevy Silverado EV
  • 2024, 2025 GMC Sierra EV

Those interested can select their vehicle on GM’s Military Appreciation page. You will then be sent an authorization number, which you can use at a GM dealer.

The program includes Active Duty, Reservists, National Guard members, and Retirees of the US Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. To validate your military status, you will need to register through ID.me.

GM-EV-Veterans-Day
Chevy Blazer EV (left), Chevy Equinox EV (middle), Chevy Silverado EV (right) (Source: GM)

GM claims it has “the most inclusive military offer from any car company.” After selling a record 32,000 EVs last quarter, GM topped Ford to become America’s number two seller of electric vehicles.

Earlier today, GM announced EV sales in the US broke the 300,000 mark last month since 2016. The company said the sales surge is due to key new models rolling out.

GM-EV-sales-300,000
Chevy Silverado EV LT trim (Source: Chevrolet)

With the lower-priced 2025 Chevy Equinox EV and Silverado EV LT models now arriving at dealerships, GM is poised to see even more demand going into next year.

For non-military members, GM still offers some of the most affordable EVs on the market. You can use our links below to find the best deals on GM’s all-electric models at a dealer near you.

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Coinbase, a16z and others pour more than $78 million into pro-crypto PAC for 2026 election

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Coinbase, a16z and others pour more than  million into pro-crypto PAC for 2026 election

Crypto donor Chris Larsen on why he's giving millions to the Harris campaign

With one day to go until the U.S. general election, crypto companies have already poured tens of millions of dollars into the upcoming 2026 cycle. The pro-crypto and bipartisan super PAC Fairshake said Monday that the committee and its affiliates have raised $78 million for the 2026 midterm elections.

That $78 million breaks down to more than $30 million raised, plus another $48 million in new commitments from centralized crypto exchange Coinbase and Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, among other companies.

Early Monday, a16z general partner Chris Dixon, who heads up the fund’s crypto book, published a note explaining why the company contributed another $23 million to Fairshake.

“Regardless of what happens in the 2024 elections, we’re committed to supporting policymakers, irrespective of party affiliation, who will work to establish a practical regulatory framework that protects consumers while allowing the industry to grow,” the letter read.

Dixon added that “supporting a PAC like Fairshake is just one crucial part of the strategy needed to achieve our larger policy goals” and that a16z would continue to meet with policymakers on both sides of the aisle to advocate for the industry.

All in, a16z has given $70 million to Fairshake as the VC looks to support the PAC’s larger mission of building a Congress comprised of pro-crypto legislators.

On Wednesday, Coinbase announced it would give another $25 million to Fairshake.

Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission over claims that it engaged in unregistered sales of securities. It’s among Fairshake’s top contributors this cycle. The exchange has given more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliated PACs.

“We know we need to have pro-crypto legislation passed in this country,” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. Coinbase shares plummeted 15% after the company reported a miss on the top and bottom lines.

Ripple Labs is another major political donor this cycle that has given around $50 million to Fairshake. A spokesperson said the company committed $25 million both this year and last year and intends to remain a strong force in DC for years to come.

Coinbase's legal chief on crypto's 2024 election spending

Fairshake told CNBC it’s raised around $170 million this cycle and disbursed approximately $135 million.

The majority of the group’s funds can be traced to Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Ripple Labs. The remaining balance comes from a mix of companies and individual donors. Armstrong, for example, gave $1 million, while the Winklevoss twins put in $5 million.

Fairshake was launched last year by a consortium of crypto firms and is one of the top-spending PACs in 2024, even against oil companies and banks, which have historically been big political contributors. Nearly half of all the corporate money flowing into the election has come from the crypto industry, according to a report from the nonprofit watchdog group Public Citizen. 

Fairshake’s spending, which has targeted House and Senate races in the 2024 cycle, is effective. Public Citizen’s report found that of the 42 primary races that attracted money from crypto-backed super PACs, 36 were won by the candidate supported by the crypto industry.

Fairshake’s corporate and individual donors want crypto laws passed in the U.S.

Dixon and others say they’re looking for comprehensive market structure legislation for digital assets and a law to govern stablecoins, tokens pegged to the value of a real-world asset that are now virtually synonymous with U.S. dollar-pegged coins.

“Many industries come to DC asking to roll back rules, and we have come to DC asking to establish them,” Dixon wrote in his post Monday.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

Crypto climbs and bitcoin nears all-time high ahead of U.S. election

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