A Decade Of Wind, Solar, & Nuclear In China Shows Clear Scalability Winners
2010–2020 Showed Strong Wins For Wind & Solar In China, Nuclear Lagging
In 2014, I made the strong assertion that China’s track record on wind and nuclear generation deployments showed clearly that wind energy was more scalable. In 2019, I returned to the subject, and assessed wind, solar and nuclear total TWh of generation, asserting that wind and solar were outperforming nuclear substantially in total annual generation, and projected that the two renewable forms of generation would be producing 4 times the total TWh of nuclear by 2030 each year between them. Mea culpa: in the 2019 assessment, I overstated the experienced capacity factor for wind generation in China, which still lags US experiences, but has improved substantially in the past few years.
My thesis on scalability of deployment has remained unchanged: the massive numerical economies of scale for manufacturing and distributing wind and solar components, combined with the massive parallelization of construction that is possible with those technologies, will always make them faster and easier to scale in capacity and generation than the megaprojects of GW-scale nuclear plants. This was obvious in 2014, it was obviously true in 2019, and it remains clearly demonstrable today. Further, my point was that China was the perfect natural experiment for this assessment, as it was treating both deployments as national strategies (an absolute condition of success for nuclear) and had the ability and will to override local regulations and any NIMBYism. No other country could be used to easily assess which technologies could be deployed more quickly.
In March of this year I was giving the WWEA USA+Canada wind energy update as part of WWEA’s regular round-the-world presentation by industry analysts in the different geographies. My report was unsurprising. In 2020’s update, the focus had been on what the impact of COVID-19 would be on wind deployments around the world. My update focused on the much greater focus on the force majeure portions of wind construction contracts, and I expected that Canada and the USA would miss expectations substantially. The story was much the same in other geographies. And that was true for Canada, the USA and most of the rest of the geographies.
But China surprised the world in 2020, deploying not only 72 GW of wind energy, vastly more than expected, but also 48 GW of solar capacity. The wind deployment was a Chinese and global record for a single country, and the solar deployment was over 50% more than the previous year. Meanwhile, exactly zero nuclear reactors were commissioned in 2020.
And so, I return to my analysis of Chinese low-carbon energy deployment, looking at installed capacity and annual added extra generation.
Grid-connections of nameplate capacity of wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020 chart by author
I’ve aggregated this added additional capacity from multiple sources, including the World Nuclear Association, the Global Wind Energy Council, and the International Energy Agency’s photovoltaic material. In three of the 11 years from 2010 to 2020, China attached no nuclear generation to the grid at all. It’s adding more this year, but the year is not complete.
The solar and wind programs had been started in the mid-2000s, and wind energy initially saw much greater deployments. Having paid much more attention to wind energy than solar for the past decade, I was surprised that solar capacity deployments exceeded wind energy in 2017 and 2018, undoubtedly part of why solar was on track to double China’s 2020 target for the technology, while wind energy was only expected to reach 125% of targets. Nuclear was lagging targets substantially, and there was no expectation of achieving them. In 2019, the clear indication was that China would make substantially higher targets for wind and solar, and downgrade their expectations for nuclear, which has been borne out.
But nameplate capacity doesn’t matter as much as actual generation. As stated in the mea culpa, wind energy in China has underperformed. This was assessed in a Letter in the journal Environmental Research by European and North American researchers in 2018.
“Our findings underscore that the larger gap between actual performance and technical potential in China compared to the United States is significantly driven by delays in grid connection (14% of the gap) and curtailment due to constraints in grid management (10% of the gap), two challenges of China’s wind power expansion covered extensively in the literature. However, our findings show that China’s underperformance is also driven by suboptimal turbine model selection (31% of the gap), wind farm siting (23% of the gap), and turbine hub heights (6% of the gap)—factors that have received less attention in the literature and, crucially, are locked-in for the lifetime of wind farms.”
Some of the capacity factor issues are locked in, and some aren’t, but overall wind energy in China’s capacity is well below that of the US fleet still. I’ve adjusted capacity factors for wind energy to be 21% at the beginning of the decade, and up to 26% for 2020 deployments, still well below US experience. Solar, on the other hand, is less susceptible to some of the challenges of that impede wind energy’s generation, and the Chinese experienced median of 20% is used throughout the decade. China’s nuclear fleet has had much better ability to connect to the grid, and as the reactors are new, they aren’t being taken offline for substantial maintenance yet. The average capacity factor for the fleet of 91.1% for the decade is used.
Generation in TWh added each year by wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020
And this tells the tale. Even adjusted for the poor capacity factor’s wind experienced and the above global average capacity factor for nuclear, in no year did the nuclear fleet add more actual generation than wind energy. The story is more mixed in the solar vs nuclear story, but only once in the past five years was more annual generation in TWh added by the nuclear program than by solar. And as a reminder, the Chinese wind and solar deployment programs started well over a decade after the nuclear program which saw its first grid connections in 1994.
What is also interesting to see is that the reversal in wind and solar deployments in China in the past two years. 2019 and 2020 saw double or more than double the actual generation in TWh added by wind than solar. To be clear, some of this is uptick is due to an expected and subsequently announced elimination of federal subsidies for utility-scale solar, commercial solar and onshore wind projects in 2021.
“The new rule, effective from Aug. 1, follows a drastic fall in manufacturing costs for solar and wind devices amid booming renewable capacity in China.”
This appears to have driven Chinese 2020 wind energy deployments to ensure that they would receive the compensation, just as US deployments have seen significant surges and lulls due to changes in the production tax credit. As a result, there is speculation that the announced wind generation capacity is not as fully completed as announced. However, that should not change the expected capacity factors for the coming years, and so I’ve left the 120 TWh projected delivery from the wind farms deployed in 2020 as is.
It’s worth noting that as of today, 7 of the 10 largest wind turbine manufacturers, and 9 of the 10 largest solar component manufacturers are Chinese companies. China remains, as I pointed out a couple of years ago, the only scaled manufacturer of many of the technologies necessary for decarbonization. Further, it’s expanding its market share in those technologies rapidly.
My 2014 thesis continues to be supported by the natural experiment being played out in China. In my recent published assessment of small modular nuclear reactors (tl’dr: bad idea, not going to work), it became clear to me that China has fallen into one of the many failure conditions of rapid deployment of nuclear, which is to say an expanding set of technologies instead of a standardized single technology, something that is one of the many reasons why SMRs won’t be deployed in any great numbers.
Wind and solar are going to be the primary providers of low-carbon energy for the coming century, and as we electrify everything, the electrons will be coming mostly from the wind and sun, in an efficient, effective and low-cost energy model that doesn’t pollute or cause global warming. Good news indeed that these technologies are so clearly delivering on their promise to help us deal with the climate crisis.
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Following on the heel’s of last month’s major leak of the design of Rivian’s secretive ALSO e-bike, now we’ve just gotten a much better look at the upcoming entry to the US micromobility market. And it’s a doozy.
Our previously best look came in the form of blurrier images that were mistakenly left in a marketing video prepared by the company’s social media team.
But thanks to an eagle-eyed reader who spotted the yet-to-be-released e-bike on the Caltrain yesterday morning (hat tip to Adem Rudin), now we’ve got a great view from the expensive seats, barely two days ahead of the anticipated official reveal.
The bike looks to be a test mule based on the extra engineering hardware and the missing shroud covering the wiring run on the front of the battery case. There appear to be several sensors mounted to the bike, including an expensive triaxial accelerometer on the side of the battery and some piece of diagnostic hardware strapped to the downtube.
But otherwise, it looks like the real deal and matches the several different angles we saw in blurrier form in my previous leak.
Now we have a great view of the front fork, which is confirmed to be an inverted fork. Fascinatingly, it has structural bosses for mounting a front rack, and we can see the orange cargo box employed on that rack for gear hauling duty. That’s likely a custom-designed fork, as I’m not aware of any other cargo forks of this style currently on the market. It’s also a bit of a strange choice. It certainly adds to the utility of the bike, but most e-bike manufacturers have moved to headtube-mounted racks for better stability. A fork-mounted rack swings with the handlebars, meaning heavier loads will change the dynamics of the ride, reduce the front-end handling, and can even lead to dangerous oscillations under the right (or wrong) conditions.
Moving further down, we can clearly see a tone ring built into the front disc brake rotor, which is a giveaway that the bike will feature anti-lock braking (ABS), or at least front wheel ABS. Front-wheel ABS would be a major safety upgrade and is rarely found on bicycles. Between the inverted front fork and the ABS tone ring, the front end of the bike looks more like light motorcycle gear.
The front and rear racks point towards fairly obvious utility intentions for the bike, though the full-suspension and Kenda El Capo tires seem like they belong more on the dirt trails than the bike lanes. It’s a strange mix, but perhaps the tires were just temporary replacements on the test mule. Full-suspension, while more common on off-road bikes, can still be a major upgrade for an urban commuter. We’ve seen it on premium models from companies like Riese & Müller, though also with incredibly premium price tags.
We’re also getting our best look yet at the battery, which seems to be a removable unit that slides in from the side of the bike. It takes up a big portion of the central frame area, whose panels also likely cover a mid-drive motor and the bike’s speed controller, among other critical electronics. We can also see now that the belt drive is a Gates center-drive system, one of the most premium belt drives out there for bicycles (not to mention that Gates is the belt drive maker of choice for high-power electric motorcycles like those from LiveWire and Zero).
The rear suspension is still shrouded and we don’t get a great look at it. However, we can see some linkage and it may be a four-bar setup – again pointing to the sophisticated engineering that went into designing this frame.
The handlebars appear to support button clusters on each side, though we can’t see what functions they might offer. It’s not clear if there are any shifters or if the bike is a single-speed, and we also don’t see a throttle, though it could be a thumb throttle that is obscured from view. The grips appear to be single lock-ons, so I don’t think we’re looking at a full-width twist throttle like you’d find on a motorcycle.
The mirror and the sumo wrestler bike horn are presumably the test engineer’s add-ons, though we can’t rule out for certain that ALSO riders will get their own mostly naked audio warning device.
What else can you see on the bike that I missed? Let me know in the comments below!
Electrek’s Take
I guess the unveiling was only two days away when this photo was snapped yesterday, and I had already spoiled a blurrier look at the bike last month, but I’m surprised they’re just parading around the yet-to-be-officially-unveiled bike in public like this. Back when Mike Radenbaugh was running the show at Rad Power Bikes, he used to personally ride upcoming bikes and camouflage them with cardboard or other concealers to make them look like any other beater city bike. So I’m surprised more effort wasn’t put into obscuring what is obviously a very unique-looking bike.
I’m glad to see more details here and it’s interesting how much investment was put into the bike’s hardware. Other than a few catalog parts like the tires, wheels, brake levers, etc, nearly the entirety of the bike appears to be custom-designed and produced for ALSO. Even for off-the-shelf parts, they went with a lot of high-end stuff. The tires and the water bottle holder are the only cheaper things I can see (mirror and sumo horn excluded). Features like ABS aren’t cheap. And it’s not clear if there is a gearbox in the mid-drive motor, but I would assume so since a single-speed would be unmarketable at this premium level. All of these features point to a bike that probably has very high performance – perhaps almost as high as its invetiable price tag.
And therein lies the rub. It’s shaping up to be a great bike, but also one that very few people will be able to afford. Or even for those who could afford it, it may be difficult to justify all the extra features and tech when, at the end of the day, it still goes just as fast and as far as all the $999 e-bikes out there. I’m not saying that’s the right way to compare it, but I am saying that’s how it WILL be compared. The simple fact of the matter is that there are few e-bike markets that are more price sensitive than in the US. Americans have become used to getting more affordable Chinese manufacturing for years, and lately they’ve seen how good that cheap manufacturing has become on pretty darn decent budget-priced electric bikes.
So will Americans pony up what will probably be 3-4x the price of a budget e-bike for one that has full-suspension, ABS, and very likely some cool connectivity-based features? Time will reveal the answer.
But let’s just say, I’m not yet convinced.
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Environment
Spiro raises massive $100M to supercharge Africa’s battery-swapping electric motorcycle revolution
Spiro, the fast-growing electric mobility company based in Africa, has just secured a historic US $100 million funding round – marking the continent’s largest-ever investment in two-wheel electric transport. And if you haven’t been paying attention to the battery-swapping boom across Africa, now might be a good time to start.
We’ve seen battery-swapping take off around the world, with leaders like Gogoro in Asia, Swobbee in Europe, and Vammo in South America, all demonstrating the effectiveness of swappable battery networks for major two-wheeler markets. But don’t count Africa out, either. Spiro has spent the last few years building up its own homegrown battery swapping network for its locally-built electric motorcycles, and is now set to jump-start that impressive growth with a mega funding round.
The impressive fundraising round was led by The Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the impact investment arm of Afreximbank, which contributed US $75 million. The funding will allow Spiro to dramatically scale its fleet of electric motorcycles and expand its already impressive network of battery-swapping stations across the continent.
Swapping gas for watts
Spiro’s model is simple but powerful: affordable electric motorcycles backed by a vast battery-swapping network that eliminates the wait time and charging infrastructure hurdles that typically slow down EV adoption. With over 60,000 electric motorcycles already on the road, more than 1,200 battery swap stations, and 800 million kilometers of low-carbon travel already under its belt, Spiro is building what it claims is Africa’s largest clean two-wheeler ecosystem – and it’s growing fast.
In fact, the company expects to deploy over 100,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, representing a 400% increase year over year. It’s a lofty goal, but Spiro’s rapid growth over the last few years demonstrates that it’s still attainable.
“Africa is at an inflection point in personal mobility. Riders are rapidly shifting from internal combustion motorcycles to Spiro’s more affordable and accessible battery-swapping ecosystem and motorcycles. For the first time, riders are embracing sustainable transportation because it performs better, costs less to operate, and offers greater profitability than traditional gas-powered vehicles,” said Kaushik Burman, Spiro’s CEO. “This is just the beginning – we’re just getting started.”
I had the chance to speak with Kaushik last month, where he explained to me how a big part of Spiro’s success is helping motorcycle taxi riders – the majority of its customers – achieve a higher standard of living by becoming more profitable with electric motorcycles over gasoline-powered motorcycles. The bikes aren’t just cheaper to purchase, but significantly cheaper to operate, meaning riders can as much as double their daily take-home pay. With that kind of economics, it makes sense why Spiro is seeing such high demand for its motorcycles and battery-swapping network.
More than motorcycles
While Spiro’s bikes are the vehicle – literally – for this transition, the real secret sauce is the swapping network. Riders don’t need to charge at home or wait around for a plug. They just pull into a station, swap out a depleted battery for a fresh one, and get back on the road. It’s a system that’s already proven effective in other regions around the world, and Spiro is now proving it can work at scale in Africa too.
The investment here is also about more than just clean transportation. According to Professor Benedict Oramah, president of Afreximbank, it’s part of a broader push to boost intra-African trade, create local manufacturing jobs, and reduce dependence on imported, second-hand gas-powered vehicles.
“We are delighted to partner with Spiro on this transformative initiative,” said Oramah. “Together, we are laying the groundwork for a new era of intra-African trade and industrialization by stimulating local vehicle manufacturing, strengthening regional integration, and enhancing trade flows.”
Made in Africa, for Africa
Founded in 2022, Spiro is leaning into local production as part of its growth strategy. The company has assembly facilities operating in Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria, and Rwanda, with new pilot programs now underway in Tanzania and Cameroon.
This latest funding builds on more than $180 million already raised from backers like Equitane and Société Générale, further underscoring investors’ confidence in Spiro’s model.
“Spiro’s rapid expansion into new markets demonstrates the immense appetite for clean, affordable, and efficient transport across the continent,” said Gagan Gupta, Chairman of Equitane. “With FEDA’s support, Spiro is exceptionally well positioned to scale even faster.”
Electrek’s Take
While most electric motorcycle battery swapping headlines are dominated by Europe, the US, or China, this is a powerful reminder that Africa is carving out its own lane – and it’s doing it with a smarter, scalable approach that solves local problems in local ways. Battery swapping may not be the answer everywhere, but it’s proving to be a perfect solution in dense urban areas where fuel is expensive and charging access is limited.
And if Spiro hits that 100,000-vehicle goal next year? Well, don’t be surprised if Africa ends up leading the world in practical, everyday e-mobility adoption. After all, doesn’t a 100 kg electric vehicle make a lot more sense for a quick taxi trip than a 2,500 kg one?
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