As far as I can tell, there are only two types of people in this world. Those who love the show “Ted Lasso” and those who haven’t seen it yet. I am in the former camp, and my favorite scene is from Season 1 and is known as “the darts scene.”
If you haven’t seen it yet and don’t want to have the scene spoiled for you, skip ahead to the next photo.
In the scene, Ted is challenged to a game of darts by Rupert, the ex-husband of Ted’s boss, Rebecca. Rupert is, to put it kindly, a real jerk, and there are significant emotional stakes up for grabs, especially for Rebecca.
After they agree to play, Rupert pulls out his own — very nice and expensive — set of darts. He’s hustling Ted.
We fast forward to the end of the game, and Rupert makes a particularly nasty comment to Rebecca. Ted asks Rupert to be quiet and then leans over to the bartender to ask what he needs to win.
He is told he needs two triple-20s and a bull’s-eye. Three extremely hard shots. The ex-husband laughs to himself. “Good luck,” he says dismissively.
And it’s at that moment when Ted nods, stands in front of the dartboard and says …
“You know, Rupert, guys have underestimated me my entire life and for years I never understood why. It used to really bother me. But then one day I was driving my little boy to school and I saw a quote by Walt Whitman. It was painted on the wall, and it said, ‘Be curious, not judgmental.’ I like that.”
(Ted throws a triple-20.)
“So I get back in my car and I’m driving to work and all of a sudden it hits me. All them fellas that used to belittle me, not a single one of them was curious. You know, they thought they had everything figured out, so they judged everything and they judged everyone. And I realized that their underestimating me — who I was — had nothing to do with it. Because if they were curious, they would have asked questions. Questions like, ‘Have you played a lot of darts, Ted?'”
(Ted throws another triple-20.)
“To which I would have answered, ‘Yes, sir. Every Sunday afternoon at a sports bar with my father from age 10 until I was 16 when he passed away.'”
(Ted stares at the board for a second.)
“Barbecue sauce.”
(Ted throws a perfect bull’s-eye to win.)
I have to tell you, as a former TV writer, that’s about as good as it gets in terms of writing, acting and directing, and my words don’t give justice to how well Jason Sudeikis plays that. But there are a million articles about how good Ted Lasso is. You didn’t come here for another.
There’s a lot in that speech I would love to unpack, but for this column, I chose that speech because of the Whitman quote.
Fantasy football needs a lot more curious. A lot more questions. Because whether it’s analysts or fantasy players, they are full of judgment. They think they have everything figured out. They think they know which players will do well, which players won’t, which positions to draft when, which NFL coaches are good and which are bad, which fantasy analysts are smart and which ones are morons. They judge everyone and they judge everything.
It’s a good lesson for life and it’s a good lesson for fantasy football. Instead of judging and thinking you know everything, be curious. Ask a question.
I’ll start.
Which of these two quarterbacks do you want in fantasy this year?
Quarterback A: One of the first things that has to concern you is whether Quarterback A will even be on the field. Having missed 18(!) games the past four seasons (nearly 30% of his games), QBA has played all 16 games in a season only once in his NFL career. Given all his missed games, you have to be concerned about his offensive line. Last season, his O-line allowed pressure at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. How bad was it? The line allowed pressure at the third-highest rate when the opponent did NOT blitz. And that’s a problem, because when blitzed, QBA’s off-target percentage was worse than Dwayne Haskins’ and Mitchell Trubisky’s, among others.
QBA’s yards per attempt has gone down three straight seasons, and who wants a dink-and-dunker in fantasy? Get this: 23.3% of his passes last season were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. His team added no significant pass-catchers this offseason, and he just lost the 1,000-yard receiver he had the highest catch rate with. His career is clearly on a downward trend (I mean, his touchdown passes are down a whopping 24% from even just two years ago).
Quarterback B: Meanwhile, Quarterback B has multiple finishes of ninth or better at the position, and he is set up for his best fantasy season ever. Why? He has a new playcaller who with his previous team got 72% of its offensive yards through the air (the sixth-highest rate in the NFL over that stretch). The coach’s offense kept getting better, as last year it had its best season during his tenure in terms of passing yards per game, fastest tempo, TD/INT ratio and fantasy points per red zone attempt.
QBB gives you points with his arm and his legs; he’s coming off a season in which he had the most rushing attempts of his career, doubled his rushing yards and rushing touchdowns from the season before and did that all in one fewer game played. He has been to multiple Pro Bowls, earned multiple NFL Player of the Week awards and is coming off career highs in completion percentage and on-target percentage, a career low in bad-throw percentage and took a big leap forward from 2019 with a higher touchdown percentage and a lower interception percentage.
So, you know everything you need to know, right? You’ve spent this whole preseason studying, mock drafting, reading, listening and watching. So let me ask you again:
Which quarterback do you want?
Understand that every single thing I wrote about each player is 100% true.
I just gave you almost 500 words of detailed research about them. Do you really need more info? You know the right one to pick, don’t you?
The draft clock is winding down. You hear my annoying voice yell at you from the computer screen. “Hurry up! Make a pick!” Gotta make a call. And you know — I mean, you know — which one you want. It’s obvious. Quarterback B, right? The guy with the multiple top-nine finishes and the fantasy-friendly playcaller?
Well, before you answer, you should probably ask me a question.
Like, “Hey, Matthew, what are those guys’ names?”
To which I would answer, “Well, Quarterback B is Jared Goff.”
I mean, I was just able to talk down Patrick Mahomes. I did it by using his rookie season, in which he sat for 15 games, and made it seem like he was injury-prone, while also ignoring that the reason he didn’t play all 16 games every season is the Chiefs have usually clinched a bye by Week 16 or 17. I leaned into the Chiefs’ offensive line woes without acknowledging the injuries or opt-outs from last year, or that the team feels it addressed all that during the offseason.
I didn’t mention one reason to throw a lot of short bubble screens is that when you have Tyreek Hill on your team, why not take advantage of the one of the fastest guys in the NFL? I ignored that the reason the Chiefs didn’t make any major offseason moves for a pass-catcher is that they didn’t need to and, I admit, it took me forever to find a good Sammy Watkins stat to make it seem like him leaving the team would be an issue. His 1,000-yard season was in 2015 with the Buffalo Bills, by the way. And finally, I was able to trend Mahomes down by comparing last season’s stats to his ridiculous 50-touchdown 2018 season.
As for Goff, he has, in fact, had two usable fantasy seasons in which he finished in the top nine, but certainly not last season, and there wasn’t a lot else to work with to make Goff sound good. So instead, I went with his new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and used all the ridiculous Justin Herbert stats to make Lynn and Goff sound a lot better. Goff did have four rushing touchdowns last season after getting two the season before. Lamar Jackson he isn’t, but written the right way, he can sound like a dual threat.
My point of making Goff sound great and Mahomes sound washed up is to show you how I can literally make stats say anything I want. I just have to choose the right stats and omit the others for the job. Or ask my friends “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast or Damian Dabrowski — The Stat-a-Pillar from The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+ — to find me the right stat for the job, as I did at various points while writing and researching this column.
You see, there is very little in this world I am actually good at, but one thing I am a world-class master at? Manipulating stats to tell you the story I want you to hear.
As we head into the final 10 or so days of drafts and into the 2021 season, I want you to remember I do that. I do it all the time. Every time, in fact. Podcasts, TV, columns, Twitter … I will give you only some of the story. And anyone who does this for a living or a hobby and is telling you why this guy is awesome and this one is a bum, and why that guy is undervalued and how you need to ignore this other guy, is doing the same thing. It’s all just opinion.
Your job? Watch the games, crunch the numbers, figure out which analysts you trust and whose thinking you respect. And then, most importantly, be curious — not judgmental.
Do it all, and then, at the end of the day, make your own call.
These are 100 facts you need to know. What you do with them is up to you.
1. Over the past three seasons, there are only two quarterbacks with more than 30 games with multiple touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes and … Russell Wilson. They are tied with 34.
2. Wilson is the only QB with at least 30 touchdown passes in each of the past two seasons.
2a. He has done it for four straight seasons.
3. Among QBs over the past four seasons, only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have more rushing yards than Wilson.
4. He has never missed a game in his NFL career.
5. The last season Wilson didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in total points, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow were all starting QBs in the NFL.
6. Over the past four seasons, Wilson is first among QBs in total points and fourth in points per game.
6a. He is being drafted as QB7.
7. In Week 7 of the 2019 season, Ryan Tannehill was named the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. Since that time, he has:
8. The fourth most games with at least 25 fantasy points.
9. The third most passing touchdowns.
10. … and the second most total touchdowns (tied with Josh Allen).
11. Since that time, he is averaging 21.7 points per game.
12. That is 0.6 fewer points per game than Allen and 0.9 fewer points per game than Mahomes.
13. Since becoming the starter, he is the fourth-best QB in fantasy in total points.
17. The wide receivers with the most routes run during that four-game stretch were rookie Jalen Reagor, who played his eighth career NFL game in Week 14, and former college quarterback Greg Ward, who in 2019 played wide receiver for the San Antonio Commanders of the now-defunct AAF.
18. It would be the final four games of Doug Pederson’s tenure as head coach of the Eagles.
19. Hurts threw for 919 yards on 133 attempts, ran for 272 yards and scored 10.3 points per game with his legs alone.
20. He averaged 23.0 total points per game.
20a. Last season, 23 points per game would have been QB7.
21. Those numbers prorated over a 16-game season would be 532 pass attempts and 164.8 fantasy points with his legs.
22. Last season, there were only five quarterbacks to throw at least 400 passes and score at least 60 points with their legs.
23. Those five quarterbacks were Allen (QB2), Kyler Murray (QB4), Deshaun Watson (QB5), Wilson (QB6) and Tannehill (QB9).
23a. Hurts is going in the 11th round in ESPN leagues.
24. Fifteen times over the past three seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 35 passes in a game.
25. In those games, he has averaged 313 passing yards and 21.7 fantasy points.
26. That 21.7 mark would have been good enough to be a top-10 QB last season, just 0.8 points lower than QB6, Wilson.
27. Last season, Washington’s starting quarterbacks were current Steelers backup Dwayne Haskins, current Washington backup Kyle Allen and current ESPN analyst Alex Smith.
28. With that trio under center, Washington still attempted 37.6 passes per game, ninth most in the NFL.
29. Last season, Fitzpatrick led all qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage on deep passes.
31. Fitzpatrick is going undrafted in more than 80% of ESPN leagues.
32. Last season, seven of the top 10 QBs had at least 15% of their fantasy points come from rushing.
33. In his lone full college season, Trey Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs.
34. Since 2019, the 49ers are tied for third in rushing touchdowns, fifth in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing yards.
35. Over the past three seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo has missed 23 games.
36. Lance’s current ESPN ADP is 157.7 (QB19).
37. Since the beginning of 2019, 31 running backs have at least 300 touches.
38. Of those 31 qualified backs, Christian McCaffrey is third with 1.17 fantasy points per touch.
39. Alvin Kamara is second in fantasy points per touch, at 1.20.
40. And first, with 1.21 fantasy points per touch, is Austin Ekeler.
41. In his nine healthy games last season, Ekeler averaged 18.6 touches per game.
42. Over a 16-game season, that equals out to 297.6 total touches.
43. Last season, Ezekiel Elliott had 296 total touches, fifth most in the NFL.
44. Once he came back from injury last season, from Week 12 on, playing with Justin Herbert, no running back had a higher target share than Ekeler’s 19.9%.
45. Last season, Ekeler scored only three touchdowns.
72. Newton (free agent), Burkhead (Texans) and Michel (Rams) are no longer on the Patriots.
73. Last season, teams that were trailing threw the ball 68% of the time.
74. Most sportsbooks have the over/under for Detroit Lions wins this year between 4.5 and 5 wins.
75. Over the past two years, no running back has caught a higher percentage of his targets than new Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams.
76. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the third-highest RB target share in the NFL.
77. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the second-most RB receptions in the NFL.
77a. Lynn is now the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.
78. In his seven games last season with at least 10 touches, Jamaal Williams averaged 13.1 points per game, which would have been RB25 on a points-per-game basis.
79. Last season for the Lions, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson combined for 231 touches.
79a. Neither is on the team this year.
79b. Jamaal Williams is currently being drafted as RB41 on ESPN.
80. Last season, Cooper Kupp averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game and finished as WR30 on a per-game basis.
81. Since 2015, here are some of the rookie receivers who averaged fewer than 13.9 points per game in their first season: Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill.
82. Ja’Marr Chase is being drafted as a borderline top-30 wide receiver on ESPN.
83. In Weeks 1-11 last season, with a healthy Joe Burrow under center, Tyler Boyd was WR14 on a per-game basis.
84. In Weeks 1-11 last season, Ja’Marr Chase, in college, was WR … nothing. He didn’t play football last season.
85. Since the start of 2018, Tyler Boyd is WR18 in total points.
86. Boyd is currently going as WR36 on ESPN, often multiple rounds after Chase.
86a. What are we doing here, people? Seriously.
87. Since 2015, among wide receivers, Brandin Cooks ranks fifth in receiving yards, tied for 11th in receiving scores and eighth in total fantasy points.
88. Since 2015, Cooks has missed a total of three regular-season games.
89. Last season, his first in Houston, Cooks was WR17.
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. — Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes champion Sovereignty rallied after losing position heading into the final turn to win the $500,000 Jim Dandy by a length at Saratoga on Saturday.
Ridden by Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty ran nine furlongs in 1:49.52 and paid $3 to win as the 1-2 favorite against four rivals, the smallest field of his career.
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said Sovereignty would be pointed toward the $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 23 at the upstate New York track.
Approaching the turn, there were a few tense moments as it appeared Sovereignty was retreating when losing position to the advancing Baeza and deep closers Sandman and Hill Road, leaving Sovereignty in last for a few strides.
Alvarado said he never had a doubt that Sovereignty would come up with his expected run.
“It was everybody else moving and at that time I was just like, ‘Alright let me now kind of start picking it up,'” Alvarado said. “I had 100% confidence. I knew what I had underneath me.”
Baeza, third to Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont, finished second. Hill Road was another 9¼ lengths back in third. Mo Plex was fourth and Sandman fifth.
INDIANAPOLIS — Chase Briscoe became the first driver to win poles at NASCAR’s first three crown jewel races in one season Saturday, taking the Brickyard 400 pole with a fast lap of 183.165 mph.
His late run bumped Bubba Wallace out of the top starting spot.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won nine career poles, five coming this season including those at the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600 and now the only race held in Briscoe’s home state. He’ll have a chance to complete a crown jewel sweep at the Southern 500 in late August.
Briscoe has the most pole wins this season, his latest coming on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s 2.5-mile oval. It also came on the same weekend his sister was married in Indiana. Briscoe has never won the Brickyard.
Wallace starts next to Briscoe on the front row after posting a lap of 183.117 mph. Those two also led a pack of five Toyotas to the front of the field — marking the first time the engine manufacturer has swept the top five spots.
Qualifying was held after a brief, rescheduled practice session. Friday’s practice was rained out.
Briscoe’s teammate, Ty Gibbs, has the early edge in the championship round of NASCAR’s first In-Season Challenge. He qualified fifth at 182.445. Ty Dillon starts 26th. The winner will be crowned champion and walk away with $1 million.
Last week’s race winner Denny Hamlin faces a major hurdle in winning his first Brickyard title. He crashed hard during qualifying and will start from the back of the field, 39th, as he tries to become the fifth driver to complete a career sweep of the Cup’s crown jewel races. The 44-year-old Hamlin signed a two-year contract extension with JGR on Friday.
There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.
Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:
1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead
2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves
2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead
2007: Phillies finished one game ahead
2008: Phillies finished three games ahead
2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves
So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.
The perfect trade deadline for the Mets
1. Bullpen help
The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.
Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.
They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.
Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.
Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.
Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.
The perfect deadline for the Phillies
1. Acquire Jhoan Duran
Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).
And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.
So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.
The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.
Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.
That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.
Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.
