Matthew Berry’s 100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season
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adminAs far as I can tell, there are only two types of people in this world. Those who love the show “Ted Lasso” and those who haven’t seen it yet. I am in the former camp, and my favorite scene is from Season 1 and is known as “the darts scene.”
If you haven’t seen it yet and don’t want to have the scene spoiled for you, skip ahead to the next photo.
In the scene, Ted is challenged to a game of darts by Rupert, the ex-husband of Ted’s boss, Rebecca. Rupert is, to put it kindly, a real jerk, and there are significant emotional stakes up for grabs, especially for Rebecca.
After they agree to play, Rupert pulls out his own — very nice and expensive — set of darts. He’s hustling Ted.
We fast forward to the end of the game, and Rupert makes a particularly nasty comment to Rebecca. Ted asks Rupert to be quiet and then leans over to the bartender to ask what he needs to win.
He is told he needs two triple-20s and a bull’s-eye. Three extremely hard shots. The ex-husband laughs to himself. “Good luck,” he says dismissively.
And it’s at that moment when Ted nods, stands in front of the dartboard and says …
“You know, Rupert, guys have underestimated me my entire life and for years I never understood why. It used to really bother me. But then one day I was driving my little boy to school and I saw a quote by Walt Whitman. It was painted on the wall, and it said, ‘Be curious, not judgmental.’ I like that.”
(Ted throws a triple-20.)
“So I get back in my car and I’m driving to work and all of a sudden it hits me. All them fellas that used to belittle me, not a single one of them was curious. You know, they thought they had everything figured out, so they judged everything and they judged everyone. And I realized that their underestimating me — who I was — had nothing to do with it. Because if they were curious, they would have asked questions. Questions like, ‘Have you played a lot of darts, Ted?'”
(Ted throws another triple-20.)
“To which I would have answered, ‘Yes, sir. Every Sunday afternoon at a sports bar with my father from age 10 until I was 16 when he passed away.'”
(Ted stares at the board for a second.)
“Barbecue sauce.”
(Ted throws a perfect bull’s-eye to win.)
I have to tell you, as a former TV writer, that’s about as good as it gets in terms of writing, acting and directing, and my words don’t give justice to how well Jason Sudeikis plays that. But there are a million articles about how good Ted Lasso is. You didn’t come here for another.
There’s a lot in that speech I would love to unpack, but for this column, I chose that speech because of the Whitman quote.
Fantasy football needs a lot more curious. A lot more questions. Because whether it’s analysts or fantasy players, they are full of judgment. They think they have everything figured out. They think they know which players will do well, which players won’t, which positions to draft when, which NFL coaches are good and which are bad, which fantasy analysts are smart and which ones are morons. They judge everyone and they judge everything.
It’s a good lesson for life and it’s a good lesson for fantasy football. Instead of judging and thinking you know everything, be curious. Ask a question.
I’ll start.
Which of these two quarterbacks do you want in fantasy this year?
Quarterback A: One of the first things that has to concern you is whether Quarterback A will even be on the field. Having missed 18(!) games the past four seasons (nearly 30% of his games), QBA has played all 16 games in a season only once in his NFL career. Given all his missed games, you have to be concerned about his offensive line. Last season, his O-line allowed pressure at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. How bad was it? The line allowed pressure at the third-highest rate when the opponent did NOT blitz. And that’s a problem, because when blitzed, QBA’s off-target percentage was worse than Dwayne Haskins’ and Mitchell Trubisky’s, among others.
QBA’s yards per attempt has gone down three straight seasons, and who wants a dink-and-dunker in fantasy? Get this: 23.3% of his passes last season were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. His team added no significant pass-catchers this offseason, and he just lost the 1,000-yard receiver he had the highest catch rate with. His career is clearly on a downward trend (I mean, his touchdown passes are down a whopping 24% from even just two years ago).
Quarterback B: Meanwhile, Quarterback B has multiple finishes of ninth or better at the position, and he is set up for his best fantasy season ever. Why? He has a new playcaller who with his previous team got 72% of its offensive yards through the air (the sixth-highest rate in the NFL over that stretch). The coach’s offense kept getting better, as last year it had its best season during his tenure in terms of passing yards per game, fastest tempo, TD/INT ratio and fantasy points per red zone attempt.
QBB gives you points with his arm and his legs; he’s coming off a season in which he had the most rushing attempts of his career, doubled his rushing yards and rushing touchdowns from the season before and did that all in one fewer game played. He has been to multiple Pro Bowls, earned multiple NFL Player of the Week awards and is coming off career highs in completion percentage and on-target percentage, a career low in bad-throw percentage and took a big leap forward from 2019 with a higher touchdown percentage and a lower interception percentage.
So, you know everything you need to know, right? You’ve spent this whole preseason studying, mock drafting, reading, listening and watching. So let me ask you again:
Which quarterback do you want?
Understand that every single thing I wrote about each player is 100% true.
I just gave you almost 500 words of detailed research about them. Do you really need more info? You know the right one to pick, don’t you?
The draft clock is winding down. You hear my annoying voice yell at you from the computer screen. “Hurry up! Make a pick!” Gotta make a call. And you know — I mean, you know — which one you want. It’s obvious. Quarterback B, right? The guy with the multiple top-nine finishes and the fantasy-friendly playcaller?
Well, before you answer, you should probably ask me a question.
Like, “Hey, Matthew, what are those guys’ names?”
To which I would answer, “Well, Quarterback B is Jared Goff.”
“Oh, and Quarterback A is named Patrick Mahomes.”
Be curious, not judgmental.
I mean, I was just able to talk down Patrick Mahomes. I did it by using his rookie season, in which he sat for 15 games, and made it seem like he was injury-prone, while also ignoring that the reason he didn’t play all 16 games every season is the Chiefs have usually clinched a bye by Week 16 or 17. I leaned into the Chiefs’ offensive line woes without acknowledging the injuries or opt-outs from last year, or that the team feels it addressed all that during the offseason.
I didn’t mention one reason to throw a lot of short bubble screens is that when you have Tyreek Hill on your team, why not take advantage of the one of the fastest guys in the NFL? I ignored that the reason the Chiefs didn’t make any major offseason moves for a pass-catcher is that they didn’t need to and, I admit, it took me forever to find a good Sammy Watkins stat to make it seem like him leaving the team would be an issue. His 1,000-yard season was in 2015 with the Buffalo Bills, by the way. And finally, I was able to trend Mahomes down by comparing last season’s stats to his ridiculous 50-touchdown 2018 season.
As for Goff, he has, in fact, had two usable fantasy seasons in which he finished in the top nine, but certainly not last season, and there wasn’t a lot else to work with to make Goff sound good. So instead, I went with his new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and used all the ridiculous Justin Herbert stats to make Lynn and Goff sound a lot better. Goff did have four rushing touchdowns last season after getting two the season before. Lamar Jackson he isn’t, but written the right way, he can sound like a dual threat.
My point of making Goff sound great and Mahomes sound washed up is to show you how I can literally make stats say anything I want. I just have to choose the right stats and omit the others for the job. Or ask my friends “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast or Damian Dabrowski — The Stat-a-Pillar from The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+ — to find me the right stat for the job, as I did at various points while writing and researching this column.
You see, there is very little in this world I am actually good at, but one thing I am a world-class master at? Manipulating stats to tell you the story I want you to hear.
As we head into the final 10 or so days of drafts and into the 2021 season, I want you to remember I do that. I do it all the time. Every time, in fact. Podcasts, TV, columns, Twitter … I will give you only some of the story. And anyone who does this for a living or a hobby and is telling you why this guy is awesome and this one is a bum, and why that guy is undervalued and how you need to ignore this other guy, is doing the same thing. It’s all just opinion.
Your job? Watch the games, crunch the numbers, figure out which analysts you trust and whose thinking you respect. And then, most importantly, be curious — not judgmental.
Do it all, and then, at the end of the day, make your own call.
These are 100 facts you need to know. What you do with them is up to you.
1. Over the past three seasons, there are only two quarterbacks with more than 30 games with multiple touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes and … Russell Wilson. They are tied with 34.
2. Wilson is the only QB with at least 30 touchdown passes in each of the past two seasons.
2a. He has done it for four straight seasons.
3. Among QBs over the past four seasons, only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have more rushing yards than Wilson.
4. He has never missed a game in his NFL career.
5. The last season Wilson didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in total points, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow were all starting QBs in the NFL.
6. Over the past four seasons, Wilson is first among QBs in total points and fourth in points per game.
6a. He is being drafted as QB7.
7. In Week 7 of the 2019 season, Ryan Tannehill was named the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. Since that time, he has:
8. The fourth most games with at least 25 fantasy points.
9. The third most passing touchdowns.
10. … and the second most total touchdowns (tied with Josh Allen).
11. Since that time, he is averaging 21.7 points per game.
12. That is 0.6 fewer points per game than Allen and 0.9 fewer points per game than Mahomes.
13. Since becoming the starter, he is the fourth-best QB in fantasy in total points.
14. His team added Julio Jones this offseason.
15. Tannehill is being drafted as QB10.
16. In Week 14 of last season, Jalen Hurts started his first of four straight games as QB for the Philadelphia Eagles.
17. The wide receivers with the most routes run during that four-game stretch were rookie Jalen Reagor, who played his eighth career NFL game in Week 14, and former college quarterback Greg Ward, who in 2019 played wide receiver for the San Antonio Commanders of the now-defunct AAF.
18. It would be the final four games of Doug Pederson’s tenure as head coach of the Eagles.
19. Hurts threw for 919 yards on 133 attempts, ran for 272 yards and scored 10.3 points per game with his legs alone.
20. He averaged 23.0 total points per game.
20a. Last season, 23 points per game would have been QB7.
21. Those numbers prorated over a 16-game season would be 532 pass attempts and 164.8 fantasy points with his legs.
22. Last season, there were only five quarterbacks to throw at least 400 passes and score at least 60 points with their legs.
23. Those five quarterbacks were Allen (QB2), Kyler Murray (QB4), Deshaun Watson (QB5), Wilson (QB6) and Tannehill (QB9).
23a. Hurts is going in the 11th round in ESPN leagues.
24. Fifteen times over the past three seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 35 passes in a game.
25. In those games, he has averaged 313 passing yards and 21.7 fantasy points.
26. That 21.7 mark would have been good enough to be a top-10 QB last season, just 0.8 points lower than QB6, Wilson.
27. Last season, Washington’s starting quarterbacks were current Steelers backup Dwayne Haskins, current Washington backup Kyle Allen and current ESPN analyst Alex Smith.
28. With that trio under center, Washington still attempted 37.6 passes per game, ninth most in the NFL.
29. Last season, Fitzpatrick led all qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage on deep passes.
30. This offseason, Washington added Curtis Samuel (4.31 40 time) and drafted Dyami Brown (4.46) to go along with Terry McLaurin (4.35), Antonio Gibson (4.39) and 6-foot-6, 250-pound Logan Thomas (4.61).
31. Fitzpatrick is going undrafted in more than 80% of ESPN leagues.
32. Last season, seven of the top 10 QBs had at least 15% of their fantasy points come from rushing.
33. In his lone full college season, Trey Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs.
34. Since 2019, the 49ers are tied for third in rushing touchdowns, fifth in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing yards.
35. Over the past three seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo has missed 23 games.
36. Lance’s current ESPN ADP is 157.7 (QB19).
37. Since the beginning of 2019, 31 running backs have at least 300 touches.
38. Of those 31 qualified backs, Christian McCaffrey is third with 1.17 fantasy points per touch.
39. Alvin Kamara is second in fantasy points per touch, at 1.20.
40. And first, with 1.21 fantasy points per touch, is Austin Ekeler.
41. In his nine healthy games last season, Ekeler averaged 18.6 touches per game.
42. Over a 16-game season, that equals out to 297.6 total touches.
43. Last season, Ezekiel Elliott had 296 total touches, fifth most in the NFL.
44. Once he came back from injury last season, from Week 12 on, playing with Justin Herbert, no running back had a higher target share than Ekeler’s 19.9%.
45. Last season, Ekeler scored only three touchdowns.
46. In 2019, he scored 11 touchdowns.
46a. He makes Mike Clay’s list of players expected to score more touchdowns this season.
47. From 2011 to 2019, only three times did a running back have at least three runs of 70-plus yards in one season.
48. Those running backs were Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson, all in 2012.
49. None of them repeated it the next year or ever again.
50. Last season, Miles Sanders had three runs of 70-plus yards.
51. Remove those runs and last season Sanders was 41st among running backs in fantasy points per touch.
52. Sanders has never had a game with more than 20 carries in his two-year career.
53. He did, however, have three games last season with 10 or fewer total touches.
54. To put that another way, Sanders played only 12 games last season. In 25% of them, he had 10 or fewer touches.
55. New Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts from 2018 to ’20.
56. In none of those three seasons did a single RB play more than 50% of the Colts’ snaps.
57. In all three seasons, multiple running backs played at least 30% of the snaps.
58. In all three seasons, a third Colts RB played more than 15% of the team’s snaps.
59. Last season, no running back with at least 50 targets had a lower catch rate than Sanders’ 52.8%.
60. This year, the Las Vegas Raiders signed Kenyan Drake to a lucrative two-year, $14.5 million dollar contract.
61. For his career, in games in which Josh Jacobs has had fewer than 15 touches, he has never had 10 or more fantasy points.
62. For his career, in the 16 games with fewer than 20 touches, Jacobs averages 10.5 fantasy points per game.
62a. Twenty touches a game is … a lot.
63. Last season, 10.5 fantasy points per game was lower than RB31 Rex Burkhead’s 10.8 points per game.
64. Last season, among RBs with 100-plus touches, Jacobs ranked 46th in fantasy points per touch. Forty-sixth.
64a. Same category, same qualifier, RB43 was Kalen Ballage.
64b. RB44 was Brian Hill.
64c. RB45 was Devontae Booker.
64d. Booker, Hill and Ballage are all backups this year for their respective NFL teams.
65. This offseason, the Raiders lost starters Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown from their offensive line.
66. Last season, Jacobs’ yards per carry after contact fell by more than 22%.
67. For his career, he averages 1.8 receptions per game.
68. Over the past five years, the New England Patriots have had the NFL’s second-highest red zone rush rate.
69. Last season, the Patriots led the NFL in red zone rush percentage.
70. Last season, the Patriots had 53 goal-to-go carries.
71. Of those 53 carries, 49 of them went to Cam Newton, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel and Damien Harris.
72. Newton (free agent), Burkhead (Texans) and Michel (Rams) are no longer on the Patriots.
73. Last season, teams that were trailing threw the ball 68% of the time.
74. Most sportsbooks have the over/under for Detroit Lions wins this year between 4.5 and 5 wins.
75. Over the past two years, no running back has caught a higher percentage of his targets than new Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams.
76. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the third-highest RB target share in the NFL.
77. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the second-most RB receptions in the NFL.
77a. Lynn is now the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.
78. In his seven games last season with at least 10 touches, Jamaal Williams averaged 13.1 points per game, which would have been RB25 on a points-per-game basis.
79. Last season for the Lions, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson combined for 231 touches.
79a. Neither is on the team this year.
79b. Jamaal Williams is currently being drafted as RB41 on ESPN.
80. Last season, Cooper Kupp averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game and finished as WR30 on a per-game basis.
81. Since 2015, here are some of the rookie receivers who averaged fewer than 13.9 points per game in their first season: Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill.
82. Ja’Marr Chase is being drafted as a borderline top-30 wide receiver on ESPN.
83. In Weeks 1-11 last season, with a healthy Joe Burrow under center, Tyler Boyd was WR14 on a per-game basis.
84. In Weeks 1-11 last season, Ja’Marr Chase, in college, was WR … nothing. He didn’t play football last season.
85. Since the start of 2018, Tyler Boyd is WR18 in total points.
86. Boyd is currently going as WR36 on ESPN, often multiple rounds after Chase.
86a. What are we doing here, people? Seriously.
87. Since 2015, among wide receivers, Brandin Cooks ranks fifth in receiving yards, tied for 11th in receiving scores and eighth in total fantasy points.
88. Since 2015, Cooks has missed a total of three regular-season games.
89. Last season, his first in Houston, Cooks was WR17.
90. Last season, William Fuller V, Randall Cobb, Keke Coutee, Darren Fells, Chad Hansen, Kenny Stills, Steven Mitchell, Kahale Warring and Deandre Carter combined for 254 targets.
90a. None of them are on the Texans’ 53-man roster as of Sept. 1, 2021.
91. Last season, Cooks had 10 games with at least seven targets. In those 10 games, he averaged 19.7 fantasy points.
92. Last season, 19.7 fantasy points per game would have been WR4, just ahead of Calvin Ridley.
93. Cooks is currently going as WR33, in the 10th round, in ESPN leagues.
93a. I mean, honestly people. COME ON.
94. Last season, only three tight ends had more red zone targets than Logan Thomas.
95. Last season, only two tight ends had more games of double-digit fantasy points than Thomas’ 10.
96. Last season, only one tight end (Darren Waller) ran a route on a higher percentage of his team’s dropbacks than Thomas’ 82.2%.
97. And last season, no tight end ran more overall routes than Thomas.
97A. And he did all that with quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith.
98. This offseason, Washington upgraded at quarterback and gave Thomas a three-year, $24 million extension.
99. Last season, Thomas was the third-best TE in fantasy.
100. This year, he is being drafted as TE7, in the eighth round.
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Sports
Why the Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup (again)
Published
11 hours agoon
June 3, 2025By
admin
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Greg WyshynskiJun 3, 2025, 09:30 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
I want to see Connor McDavid raise the Stanley Cup.
I want to see all that regular-season hardware — five scoring titles, three Hart trophies as league MVP, the four-time NHLPA most outstanding player — metaphorically traded for a Stanley Cup ring, like when you turn in smaller prizes for a larger one during a carnival game. I want him rewarded for his 10 years of trying to will the Edmonton Oilers to their first Stanley Cup since 1990. Those fans deserve another party, with McDavid as the master of ceremonies.
I want to see him permanently overwrite those images of himself as an empty husk after Game 7 last season, his soul seemingly drained from his body by a series so emotionally erratic that he was voted the playoffs’ most valuable player moments after losing in the championship finale.
I want to see the laziest counterargument to McDavid’s status as a hockey deity — that he “never won the Cup” — rendered immaterial, as it eventually was for players such as Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I want that cathartic scream when he picks up the chalice for the first time. The king deserves his crowning moment.
Unfortunately, what I want and what the Florida Panthers are willing to give McDavid aren’t at all aligned. They deprived him of his Stanley Cup win last season. They’ve going to do it again in this Stanley Cup Final rematch, despite the sportsbooks and the majority of pundits believing that it’s McDavid’s moment.
Here are five reasons the Panthers are likely headed for a repeat:
Florida is better than last season’s Cup winner
It’s undeniable that the Oilers are a better team than they were last season.
Edmonton’s roster is deeper and more cohesive than the 2024 Western Conference champions. They’re scoring more (4.06 goals per game) than last season. Their 5-on-5 defense is remarkably better: 1.89 goals per 60 minutes, down from 2.55 last postseason.
Perhaps the most impressive part of the Oilers’ defensive game has been the ability to close out games — witness their shot suppression in the last three wins over the Dallas Stars. They were a minus-6 in the third period last postseason; they’re a plus-11 this season through 16 games. The only downgrade year-over-year is their penalty kill, which has given up 16 goals in 16 games while it gave up four in 25 games last season. One assumes the return of Mattias Ekholm will help.
But the Panthers are also better.
Like, a lot better. Which is scary.
Florida is a plus-27 in goal differential through 17 games, after finishing at a plus-11 last season. The Panthers are scoring more (3.88) and giving up less (2.29). At 5-on-5, they’ve gone from 2.39 goals per 60 minutes last season to 3.53 goals per 60 this season. Their power play is up year over year — something to keep in mind if the Oilers keep struggling on the PK — and the penalty kill is about the same.
They also upgraded in a few roster spots during the season, primarily with the additions of Seth Jones to their second defense pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.
Last season, Florida paired Niko Mikkola with Brandon Montour, a good puck-moving defenseman who parlayed his success with Florida into a free agent deal with the Seattle Kraken. The Panthers registered 49% of the shot attempts and averaged 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes when that pair was on the ice. Mikkola’s pairing with Jones is a marked upgrade: 56% of the shot attempts, 4.14 goals for and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo has an expected goals against of 1.48 per 60 minutes — Montour and Mikkola were at 2.37 last postseason.
That’s not just the addition of Jones to the Panthers’ top four. Mikkola has leveled up into something special, defending better and flashing a surprising amount of offensive speed for a 6-foot-6 defender nicknamed “The Condor.”
“Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he’s everywhere,” Marchand said. “I don’t think he gets enough credit. He’s extremely tough to play against. Then when you play with him, and you realize that he’s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he’s always on top of guys and he’s physical.”
The addition of Marchand has also made the Panthers a more dangerous team than last season — and not only in terms of what’s said on the ice during games. The third line of their Cup-winning team was anchored by center Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen, a solid duo that skated with a variety of wingers. Putting Marchand with those two after acquiring him at the trade deadline from Boston improved the team in several ways.
Marchand, Lundell and Luostarinen have earned 53% of the shot attempts at 5-on-5. They average 4.2 goals and 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 points in 17 games. Luostarinen has 13 points in 17 games. Lundell has five goals and seven assists, and continues to give this team preposterous center depth as sort of a “Baby Barkov” for the Panthers.
By solidifying that line with Marchand, it allows the Panthers to keep their top six solidified. One duo is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The other duo is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They shuttle Carter Verhaeghe, one of the playoffs’ most clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics darling, between those lines on the wing. Both combinations have yielded results for Florida.
But beyond what’s happening on the ice — or perhaps as a catalyst for it — the Panthers are playing with the poise and confidence of a champion, fortified by a proof of concept that comes only after a Stanley Cup skate.
Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
These two goalies have had similar postseason journeys: Inconsistent and middling results early in the playoffs, followed by dominant runs that began in the middle of the second round and carried through to the Stanley Cup Final.
“Middling” is probably putting it kindly for Skinner’s playoffs, where he was benched in the first round and got back into the playoffs only when Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. But from Game 4 against Vegas to the Cup Final, he’s been scorching hot: 6-1, .944 save percentage, 1.41 goals-against average and three shutouts.
0:28
Stuart Skinner makes an unbelievable diving save
Stuart Skinner makes a beautiful stick save to keep the game tied 2-2 for the Oilers vs. the Golden Knights.
Bobrovsky wasn’t all that great early either until a Game 4 shutout against the Maple Leafs. After that, he went 7-2 with a .944 save percentage, a 1.34 goals-against average and two shutouts.
The Florida netminder had a chaotic Stanley Cup Final last season, but ended it with a 23-save effort at home in Game 7 to clinch the Cup. It was the kind of game that reinforced the “Playoff Bob” legend that the Oilers will no doubt hear about again this season.
Averaged out, Skinner and Bobrovsky were both at replacement levels for the totality of the playoffs according to Stathletes. Over their past five games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) has been better analytically than Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is playing well enough where he shouldn’t lose this series for Edmonton, which is really all they can ask from him and Pickard. But Bobrovsky, assuming he’s in “Playoff Bob” mode, can win this series for Florida. That’s the difference.
The Panthers are road warriors
The most significant change year-over-year between these teams is that the Oilers have home-ice advantage this time. Unfortunately, that might play into the Panthers’ hands.
Florida is 8-2 on the road, which is tied for the sixth-best winning percentage in NHL postseason history (minimum eight road games). Their 4.80 goals per game would make them the highest-scoring road playoff team in Stanley Cup history (again, minimum eight road games). That plus-27 goal differential in the postseason? It has all come on the road, where they’ve scored 48 times and given up 21 goals. They’re even (18 for and 18 against) at home.
“It’s us against the world. That kind of feeling,” defenseman Gustav Forsling said.
There are two clear reasons for the Panthers’ road dominance. The first is that Florida is at its absolute best when it trims the flourish out of its offensive game to become a blunt instrument.
“Our mindset is just play as simple as we can,” Verhaeghe said. “Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.”
The other reason: The Panthers absolutely love to suck the energy out of a road arena and send the opposing fans home feeling miserable.
“It’s fun when you’re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we’re doing our job,” Verhaeghe said.
0:37
Fortenbaugh’s best bet for Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup rematch
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he’s taking the Panthers to repeat as champions against the Oilers.
Aleksander Barkov
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can exert their will on a period, a game and a series. McDavid is coming off a series against Dallas in which he had nine points in five games, for example.
Florida has one of those guys, too. Barkov doesn’t get mentioned with the same breathless praise as the Oilers’ duo or Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon or Sidney Crosby. He has broken 90 points only once in his career, although his points-per-game rate between 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him 12th among all skaters, right between Crosby and Cale Makar. He’s not the most vocal guy, nor does he have the most boisterous personality — Panthers coach Paul Maurice joked that Barkov is “not doing a podcast when he’s done [playing].”
All of those players mentioned are Hart Trophy guys. Barkov is a Selke Trophy guy, having been named as the NHL’s best defensive forward for the third time in his career this week. You can’t be both. Since the best defensive forward award was first handed out in 1977-78, only two players have ever won a Hart and a Selke at some point in their careers: Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke. As of this season, the highest Barkov ever placed for MVP was sixth in 2020-21.
But he’s just as much of a game changer and series shifter as any other superstar, only his ability to do so sometimes starts in the defensive zone. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice during those seven games, earning the majority of the shot attempts and scoring chances.
He can create something out of nothing with his puck control and large frame.
Witness the series clincher against Carolina:
0:53
Verhaeghe puts Panthers back in front
Carter Verhaeghe fires home a big-time goal to give the Panthers a lead late in the third period.
Rodrigues said that goal “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person” after Game 5.
“He’s so even-keeled,” Rodrigues said. “Doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he’s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.”
Which brings us to perhaps the most salient point in this prediction.
They’ll take what Edmonton gives them
This might be hyperbolic but that’s never stopped me before: I think the Panthers are basically built to be an Oilers countermeasure.
They can score with the Oilers. They can defend as good as any team in the NHL. They have impactful star players and effective role players. They’re unfazed by chaotic road environments. They’re well-coached. They play with a physicality, swagger and antagonism. They can dish it out and take it and then dish it out again.
But they also have that special trait shared with other great NHL champions, which is that they’re willing to win on their terms or on whatever terms the opponents will set for them.
Think about the Western Conference finals. Think about how the Dallas Stars felt like they had toppled into an abyss when the Oilers would score the first goal. Think about how they could send only four shots on Skinner in the third period of must-win games, frustrated to no end that they couldn’t play their game.
The Panthers don’t get flustered. They don’t lose their confidence or have their hope extinguished if things aren’t to their liking. They maximize the opportunities they earn. They’re meticulous and patient where others are harried and panicked.
Carolina was a stingy defensive team. The Panthers waited for their chances to pounce, and when they did, the games changed dramatically. In each of their wins over the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals, the Panthers scored multiple goals within four minutes of each other. Florida is the most “blood in the water” team in the NHL. In Game 3, it was five goals in 9:08. In Game 5, it was three goals in 4:36.
“We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do,” Barkov said. “The confidence level is high and everyone’s having fun right now.”
0:36
Panthers take care of Hurricanes in 5 to advance to Stanley Cup Final
The Florida Panthers win 5-3 in a back-and-forth Game 5 battle vs. the Hurricanes to advance to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final.
Prediction: Panthers in six
GM Bill Zito and his staff have constructed a Stanley Cup champion whose core players have the postseason competence and drive that other teams desperately try to import into their lineups at the deadline every season. The Panthers don’t need an infusion of “rings in the room.” They almost all have them now. Playoff self-assurance is a nucleotide in their hockey DNA.
Their “win at all costs” style has earned them detractors, but it has also earned them three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
Based on the Panthers’ recent play and their advantages in this matchup, it’ll also earn them a second straight skate with Stanley.
And if I’m wrong, then Connor McDavid has his championship moment. Which would be awesome, too.
Sports
‘As wired at breakfast as he is at game time’: What Brad Marchand has brought to the Panthers
Published
11 hours agoon
June 3, 2025By
admin
-
Greg WyshynskiJun 2, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
SUNRISE, Fla. — Brad Marchand has regrets.
He didn’t want to leave the Boston Bruins, the team that drafted him in 2006, won a Stanley Cup with him in 2011 and that he captained for the past two seasons after Patrice Bergeron retired. The team with whom he gained fame with 976 points in 1,090 games, as well as infamy as one of the NHL’s most accomplished agitators. He dreamed about being a one-team guy, one of the rarest accomplishments for veteran stars in a transient sport.
Marchand regrets not being able to say goodbye to Boston fans on his own terms before the NHL trade deadline.
“I got hurt before I got traded. The last game I’ll ever play in a Bruins jersey was not the last game I thought I was ever going to play in a Bruins jersey,” he said.
Marchand’s final home game in Boston was a loss to the New York Islanders on Feb. 27. His final game with the Bruins was March 3 in Pittsburgh. He was traded to the Florida Panthers on March 7, the result of a contract impasse with Boston management and the team’s pivot to a retool.
He fought back tears in his first public appearance as a Panther. “At the end of the day, I know the business is the business and everybody has a shelf life,” he said. “I am grateful, beyond words, for everything that organization has done for me.”
Marchand regrets not appreciating all the experiences he had in Boston.
“When you come to the rink, it can be stressful. You start overthinking things. There’s this pressure you sometimes put on yourself. You start stressing about things that you don’t need to stress about,” he said. “I know that there are moments that I missed out on or didn’t really appreciate because I was stressing about other things.”
For example, the Bruins had 135 points in 2022-23, becoming the most successful regular-season team in NHL history. The Panthers shocked the league — and began their nascent dynasty — with a seven-game upset in the first round of the playoffs that ended the series at a funeral-pitched TD Garden.
“We thought we were going to go to the finals that year. We thought we were going to win it all, and then we got pushed out in the first round,” Marchand said. “You start looking back at those moments and you realize you took all we did that season for granted because we were so worried about going to the finals. We weren’t living in the moment.”
Those are old regrets for the new Brad Marchand. The playoff disappointment, the breakup with the Bruins, the deadline trade … they were all shocks to his system that reoriented his thinking.
“I’m just not going to do that to myself this time around,” he said. “I’m coming to the rink every day just having fun and trying to live in the moment, not taking anything too seriously.”
0:44
Panthers pour it on with 2 more quick goals
The Panthers net two more goals in just over a minute to pad their lead vs. the Hurricanes.
Marchand started to rethink his own mindfulness when he arrived in Florida.
“My family’s not here and I have a lot more time to sit home and think and go over things in my head than I normally do,” he said. “Being here, they talk about being in the moment. Just going day by day. About taking time to reflect on things and appreciate them.”
And so Marchand decided he was just going to enjoy himself during this run with the Panthers, which finds them back in the Stanley Cup Final, seeking a second straight championship against the Edmonton Oilers, whom they defeated in Game 7 for the Cup last season.
“I’m literally just trying to have fun out there and have fun in here,” he said, motioning to the dressing room.
“The Dairy Queen thing is a great example.”
THE “DAIRY QUEEN THING” sprang from an interview between Marchand and Sportsnet rinkside reporter Kyle Bukauskas. He asked Marchand about a run to Dairy Queen that the Panthers made during the Eastern Conference finals games in Raleigh, and then introduced a clip of Marchand eating something with a spoon in between periods of Florida’s Game 3 win. Bukauskas asked Marchand if he was “refueling with a Blizzard” in the locker room.
Marchand extolled the virtues of the chocolate chip cookie dough Blizzard as “the best dessert in the world,” and made a pitch to DQ PR for a lifetime supply of the frozen treats for that endorsement.
“We had a little fun on the off day. There was a DQ by the hotel. We popped over and enjoyed our night,” Marchand explained.
This interview went viral, with many fans (and media) taking it as gospel that Marchand had been eating ice cream in between periods. His teammates were interviewed about it. Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice was asked about it during his news conferences.
Days later, Marchand was finally asked about eating ice cream in the locker room during a game.
“It wasn’t a Blizzard,” Marchand said, with a tone that rendered the accusation absurd. “I was not eating a Blizzard in the middle of a game.”
Marchand explained that he was referencing the Panthers’ trip to Dairy Queen during the Sportsnet interview. “I was referencing that. I was making a joke about our excursion a couple of nights before. Just kind of making a joke off of it and I think people took it seriously,” he said.
After the interview went viral, Marchand said his phone blew up with messages from people saying they were inspired by him to go to Dairy Queen.
“I appreciate the support,” he said. “I love a good Blizzard more than anybody, but it’s not something I’ve had in the middle of the game.”
For many, this was never really about whether Marchand was wolfing down ice cream in his dressing room stall. It was essentially a tribute to the mercurial nature of the star winger that he reasonably could have been the guy eating Dairy Queen between periods. There’s something indelible about the most agitating player on the ice celebrating his wickedness with spoonfuls of cookie dough ice cream during intermission.
But it wasn’t ice cream or cookie dough or peanut butter. Marchand eventually revealed he was caught consuming “something healthy” on camera.
“It was honey. I was having honey. It was a spoonful of honey.”
Because he’s sweet?
“Because I’m a bear,” he responded.
Marchand said he has always had an affinity for honey.
“Actually, when I was growing up, I loved Winnie the Pooh. So I used to have a Winnie the Pooh [doll] and I used to feed the bear honey. So it was covered with honey and would get rock hard,” he said. “I don’t think [my parents] enjoyed cleaning up the mess. But I had fun.”
Marchand paused for effect.
“It’s what we do in Halifax. We feed teddy bears honey.”
Everyone laughed.
IT’S STILL SURREAL to think about where Marchand started in his NHL career to where he has ended up.
When the Bruins won the Cup in 2011, Marchand was a brash 23-year-old winger whose burgeoning offensive game was secondary to his extracurricular activities on the ice. Like when he used Vancouver Canucks winger Daniel Sedin as a punching bag in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, delivering around six shots to his face without the on-ice officials stepping in.
When asked why he kept punching Sedin, Marchand responded, “Because I felt like it.”
He was the guy who got a misspelled tattoo after the Bruins won the Cup.
“Let me clear something up. After we won, a bunch of us got tattoos here in the dressing room of the Garden. Mine originally was misspelled,” he said in an ESPN player diary. “Instead of saying Stanley Cup Champions it said ‘Stanley Cup Champians.’ I don’t even know how that happened.”
(It was fixed before the next season.)
He was the player who was suspended six times by the NHL between 2011 and 2018 for illegal hits, and was given a six-game suspension as recently as 2022. He was a player known as much for his goading as his goal scoring.
But in 2025? Marchand was “an elder statesman” for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, according to coach Jon Cooper.
“Love him. I can’t say enough great things about him, his energy and passion. He seems to find the fountain of youth any time he comes into one of these tournaments. He’s one of the guys everybody turns to when everything’s under fire,” Cooper said. “The loudest guy on the bench, pumping everybody up, is Brad Marchand. For somebody that’s been around as long as he has, he doesn’t have to do that.”
That energy is one of the things Maurice likes best about Marchand.
“He is such a unique guy. He’s as wired at breakfast as he is at game time,” he said.
0:37
Fortenbaugh’s best bet for Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup rematch
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he’s taking the Panthers to repeat as champions against the Oilers.
Maurice remembered when GM Bill Zito told him that the Panthers would be acquiring Matthew Tkachuk in 2022 and not believing he’d be able to pull it off. He had a similar reaction when Zito told him last summer that Chicago defenseman Seth Jones might be available. When Zito told him about Marchand, he knew it was real. “If he says it, then it could happen,” Maurice said.
Truth be told, Maurice didn’t believe the Panthers had “a huge hole” in their lineup for Marchand to fill. He was also concerned about how the 37-year-old would fit on a roster that was largely the same as the one that captured the Stanley Cup last season.
Two of Marchand’s former Bruins teammates are Panthers executives: Shawn Thornton, chief revenue officer, and Gregory Campbell, assistant general manager. They assured Maurice that Marchand would be an ideal Panther.
“There’s just many stories about bringing them high-end guys toward the end of their career and it doesn’t work and it doesn’t fit. But they were sure,” the coach recalled.
When Marchand arrived with the Panthers, Maurice soon understood the fit — on the ice and off the ice.
“His personality took some pressure off the rest of the guys. I actually have more quiet guys than we have loud guys. You all know that [Aleksander] Barkov is not doing a podcast when he’s done [playing],” Maurice said. “They’re like, ‘OK, Marchy’s here, he can do all the talking and we can just relax.'”
The Panthers had some talkers last season in forward Ryan Lomberg and defenseman Brandon Montour, who both left via free agency.
“Some of these guys start talking in their car and don’t stop until they left the rink. They just go on all the time,” Maurice said. “It was nice to have that element again that we kind of lost a little bit of it. He’s brought it back.”
Marchand has also learned through years when to hold his tongue with the media. Like when Carolina defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere intentionally shot the puck at Marchand in Game 1 of the conference finals, which led to Marchand getting a misconduct penalty. When Marchand was asked about his thoughts, he replied: “Yeah, I’m not much of a thinker.”
Maurice nodded to that moment in his news conference later that day.
“He’s a great interview. He’s very, very bright, even though I hear he is a man of very few thoughts,” he said, drawing laughs. “That’s a good line. I’m stealing it.”
ON THE ICE, Marchand has been primarily paired with center Anton Lundell, 23, and winger Eetu Luostarinen, 26, during the Panthers’ run to the Final, forming one of the most effective lines in the postseason. In 17 games together, the line has had 55% of the shot attempts when on the ice, 56% of the expected goals, has 4.2 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and just 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes.
Maurice raved about what Marchand “has done with those two young players” on Florida’s third line. “The way they’ve expanded, the way they play … part of it is playing off him,” he said.
Marchand has 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in the playoffs. Luostarinen has 13 points (four goals, nine assists) while Lundell has 12 points (five goals, seven assists).
Marchand had high praise for Luostarinen.
“He plays a man’s game. He plays through bodies. He’s hard on pucks, wins a lot of battles,” Marchand said. “He’s very, very skilled. He’s great with the puck. He doesn’t force plays. He’s very smart in the way that he plays.”
Marchand then bestowed the greatest accolade he could muster onto Luostarinen: He reminds Marchand of Bergeron, his six-time Selke Trophy-winning teammate with the Bruins.
“He’s so defensively good with the stick. It reminds me a lot of Bergy, where he leads with the stick a lot, kills a lot of plays that way and creates offense from that,” Marchand said.
Marchand said he enjoys playing with his Panthers linemates because they have similar “simple, direct” games.
“We just complement each other all over the ice because we read the game pretty well on both sides of it. We support each other pretty well, all the way up and down the ice and then in the corner,” he said. “So I think we just because of that, we’re able to create offense out, little scrums, stuff like that.”
He said skating with Lundell and Luostarinen has been revitalizing.
“They play fast and they play hard and they’re young, energetic guys. It keeps me feeling young,” Marchand said. “I’m lying to myself. I feel 25 again. I feel rejuvenated and part of that comes to playing with some younger guys and part of a really good group of guys in here.”
0:36
Panthers take care of Hurricanes in 5 to advance to Stanley Cup Final
The Florida Panthers win 5-3 in a back-and-forth Game 5 battle vs. the Hurricanes to advance to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final.
Marchand didn’t always feel they were good guys. Not when Matthew Tkachuk was terrorizing his Bruins in the playoffs in 2023 and 2024.
“He’s a competitor. He’s there to win. His reputation proceeds him,” Marchand said of Tkachuk. “One of the most gifted players in the league around the net. He brings an element to the group that brings guys swagger.”
Someone asked what opponents think about having Marchand and Tkachuk — two legendary provocateurs — on the ice for Florida.
“I mostly feel sorry for the guys in our room. Not too many guys are going to get a break here now,” Marchand said of him and Tkachuk. “It’s nice to be on his team rather than going against him, for sure.”
Then there’s Sam Bennett, who appeared to sucker punch Marchand during the Panthers’ playoff series win over the Bruins in 2024. It knocked Marchand out of the series for two games and didn’t result in further discipline for Bennett. At the trade deadline in 2025, they became teammates.
“I didn’t hold a grudge. Again, I know how this game’s played. I played a similar way,” Marchand said. “It’s something that we joke about. I can laugh it off. I joke about it all the time. I joke about it more than he does, but I definitely joke about it.”
Maurice said there’s a reason that hockey players who were the fiercest rivals can become teammates without much acrimony.
“I think you find out when a player walks in the room, even if he’s had his great battles, they’re so happy that it’s over. They don’t have to fight you anymore. They don’t have to hack and whack in the corner for 60 minutes,” Maurice said. “Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett are best friends now. A year ago, you would’ve never thought that could happen.”
A year ago, Brad Marchand becoming a Florida Panther wasn’t something many believed could happen, although it makes perfect sense now: The Rat King, joining the franchise that celebrates wins by throwing plastic rats on the ice.
In fact, Marchand has become a new part of that tradition. After Florida wins, if there are rats on the ice, his teammates have taken to shooting the faux rodents at Marchand as they’re leaving for the dressing room.
“They see my family on the ice and want us to be together,” Marchand deadpanned.
As the playoffs have progressed, “they’re shooting to hurt now,” according to Marchand. “Matthew Tkachuk caught me with one last game that I actually really felt there,” he said.
Marchand is feeling a lot these days. The sting of the trade dissipates a little more with every playoff win. He’s having more fun and stressing less, among teammates with whom he has quickly bonded. And he’s a few wins from another Stanley Cup, in the third Final he has reached since winning his first ring 14 years ago.
“It’s exciting. You hope that you get to this point. Obviously, we have a great team and we played well so far. We got to the point where we want to be, but we haven’t accomplished anything yet,” Marchand said.
“I may never get back this late in the playoffs ever again in my career. These are memories and moments that you want to embrace.”
Sports
Brind’Amour says handshake line for coaches, too
Published
11 hours agoon
June 3, 2025By
admin
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Greg WyshynskiJun 3, 2025, 11:16 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
Carolina Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said he was surprised when Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice asked him not to participate in their series-ending handshake line last week and said he disagreed that it should just be for the players.
Maurice has attempted to start a new tradition in the NHL in which coaches and staff don’t participate in the handshake line, a decades-old ritual held at center ice after teams are eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs.
He asked Toronto Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube to stand down in the second round, and Berube obliged. He asked Brind’Amour to do the same after the Panthers eliminated the Hurricanes in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals in Raleigh. Maurice said he appreciated Brind’Amour agreeing to it.
“There’s this long list of people in suits and track suits. We had, like, 400 people on the ice. They’re all really important to our group, but not one of them was in the game. There’s something for me visually with the camera on just the men who played — who blocked shots and who fought for each other,” Maurice said.
At the Hurricanes’ postseason media availability Tuesday, Brind’Amour said he understood Maurice’s point of view. But he said that participating in the handshake is about “gracious losing” and that he won’t continue Maurice’s tradition next season.
“Sitting back on it and reflecting, I’ve had some pretty impactful memories and moments in that line as a coach going through it,” he said.
Brind’Amour noted that the tradition gives him a chance to have a moment with players he used to coach, such as when he shook the hands of former Hurricanes players who are now on the New Jersey Devils during Carolina’s first-round win.
“Moving forward, I think I’ll probably go back to it just because it’s a sign of respect. That’s the way I look at it. We’re not out there on the ice battling, but we’re right in there with these guys,” Brind’Amour said. “He won, so I kind of went, ‘OK, I’m going to follow your lead in that.’ But I do think it’s important, to me anyway, to show respect to the players.”
Maurice, whose first head coaching job was with the Hartford Whalers in 1995, said that staff didn’t always take part in the handshake line and that he was trying to reorient the spotlight on the players.
“When I first got in the league, we would never go shake the players. Some coach wanted to get on camera; it was the only thing I can figure out,” Maurice said.
“I think there’s a really nice, kind of beautiful part of our game, just the players shaking hands at the end. When you think of all the great competitions on the ice, they’re not sending Christmas cards to each other. This was nasty out there. And yet they shake hands like that. That’s special,” he said.
Maurice’s reigning-champion Panthers are facing the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight season. Game 1 is Wednesday night.
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