Boris Johnson is expected to raise national insurance by about 1.2% to pay for a pledge to end the “catastrophic costs” of social care, a move Tory MPs claim amounts to a £10bn tax raid.
On Tuesday, he is planning a major launch of a long-awaited shake-up which he claims will fulfil a pledge he made when he became prime minister two years ago to “fix the broken care system”.
The national insurance hike will also help fund a major drive to clear the massive backlog in NHS operations and treatment caused by COVID, which has seen waiting lists soar to over five million.
Image: Chancellor Rishi Sunak made an appeal for loyalty to the PM on Monday night
The extra cash for the NHS will be targeted on boosting capacity in hospitals amid predictions that the backlog could more than double to 13 million people on waiting lists by the end of this year.
After driving his plan through his potentially mutinous cabinet at its first meeting in Number 10 for more than a year, Mr Johnson will confront Tory critics and opposition MPs in a House of Commons statement.
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He will then attempt to portray a united cabinet front as he unveils the government’s proposals at a Downing Street news conference, flanked by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak and the Health Secretary Sajid Javid.
The prime minister claims the social care package is a “fair, reasonable and necessary plan” to ensure the NHS has the long-term funding it needs.
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But he is facing a furious backlash from ministers and backbench MPs who are incensed that the PM is poised to break a promise in the Tories’ 2019 election manifesto not to raise national insurance.
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July 2019 – Boris Johnson’s first speech as PM in full
Other Tory MPs claim the proposals will hit workers on low and modest incomes while protecting better off couples who are currently forced to sell their home to pay for care in later life.
But speaking ahead of the launch, a defiant Mr Johnson declared: “The NHS is the pride of our United Kingdom, but it has been put under enormous strain by the pandemic. We cannot expect it to recover alone.
Image: The 2019 Conservative manifesto included a personal ‘guarantee’ from Boris Johnson that there wouldn’t be tax rises
“We must act now to ensure the health and care system has the long-term funding it needs to continue fighting COVID and start tackling the backlogs, and end the injustice of catastrophic costs for social care.
“My government will not duck the tough decisions needed to get NHS patients the treatment they need and to fix our broken social care system.”
But while the Conservative manifesto promised a “long-term solution” on social care, it also pledged: “We promise not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.
“This is a tax guarantee that will protect the incomes of hard-working families across the next parliament.”
Labour’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth hit back at the PM ahead of the unveiling of his social care plans.
“A Tory decade of neglect left us unprepared for the pandemic and means waiting lists are at record levels with patients waiting longer in pain, A&Es regularly in crisis, cancer survival rates at risk of going backwards and millions struggling to access adequate mental health support,” Mr Ashworth said.
“In social care, swingeing cuts have left the service at breaking points and left over a million of the most vulnerable without help.
“A long-term plan on social care and a rescue plan to address the crisis the NHS has been in for years are both long overdue.
“The NHS is in desperate need, but the prime minister – along with every Conservative MP – was elected on a manifesto that promised to fix social care on a plan that had been developed and promised no rise in national insurance.
“His broken promises on tax rises cannot be followed by more broken promises for the NHS.”
Image: The PM made a pledge two years ago to ‘fix the broken care system’
In an 11th-hour attempt to win over angry Tory MPs, Mr Sunak made an appeal for loyalty to the PM in a speech to the backbench 1922 Committee on Monday night.
“It’s fair to say that we’ve got a tough autumn ahead,” the chancellor said.
“That doesn’t mean there won’t be disagreements. There always are. But we should never lose sight of the central fact that we are a team, leading with our values and presenting a united front to the country.
“I, like all of you, take our lead from the prime minister, the leader of our party and the country. We owe him our support and loyalty.”
Foreshadowing the PM’s funding plans, a government source said: “The NHS cared for us during the worst pandemic in a century.
“Over half a million COVID patients have been admitted to hospital since March 2020, and on one day alone in January 2021, over 34,000 patients were in hospital.
“During national restrictions, the NHS remained open for anyone who needed it. Urgent treatment, including cancer care and A&E services, continued.
“NHS staff and beds were redirected from non-urgent care to help the influx of COVID patients. An entire vaccination system was set up from scratch, administering 88 million vaccines so far and saving countless lives.
“Less urgent treatment was temporarily paused and as a result, the number of people waiting for treatment has quickly multiplied.”
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NHS to get extra £5.4bn, says Javid
The government says a new plan is now needed to put the necessary resources in place to provide care and treatment for all and to protect the NHS’s ability to deliver the core function it was set up for.
Ministers admit that the number of patients now waiting for elective surgery and routine treatment in England is at a record high of over five million and – left unchecked – could reach 13 million by the end of the year.
Before the pandemic, nine out of 10 people were treated within 26 weeks. Despite huge efforts by NHS staff, that is now 44 weeks, and more than 300,000 people have been waiting over a year for non-urgent care.
This includes hip replacements, knee surgery, and cataract treatment, all of which can severely limit someone’s quality of life.
On social care, the government says that under the current system anyone with assets over £23,350 pays for their care in full. This can lead to spiralling costs and the complete liquidation of someone’s assets.
Around one in seven people now pay over £100,000 and there is an unfair discrepancy between someone who has dementia paying for their care in full, while someone cared for by the NHS receives care for free.
Sir Keir Starmer has authorised an “urgent” review into the extent of foreign interference in British politics, as he prepares to change the law to tighten donation rules.
Ministers have initiated a rapid inquiry into current financial rules on donations and election safeguards, which will report at the end of March.
It will be led by Philip Rycroft, the former permanent secretary of the Brexit department.
The inquiry is a direct response to the jailing of Nathan Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, who admitted accepting tens of thousands of pounds in cash to make pro-Russian statements to the media and European Parliament.
In this case, officers said that they believed some individuals had a direct link to Vladimir Putin.
Communities Secretary Steve Reed, who announced the inquiry to the Commons on Tuesday, wants Mr Rycroft to assess how well the rules work at the moment and promised the report will be published in full.
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Mr Reed told MPs that the “conduct [of Gill] is a stain on our democracy”.
“The independent review will work to remove that stain,” he said.
The review could then lead to changes in the Elections Bill, due this spring, which could significantly change the way elections are financed.
Tuesday’s announcement is likely to ignite a firestorm of criticism.
Among the changes that could result from the Rycroft report could be a clampdown on cryptocurrency donations, which Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said in the past would be a direct attack on his party.
It could introduce new rules for donations to thinktanks, which fall outside any regulatory regime at the moment, and could see new rules around foreign donations.
Image: Philip Rycroft will carry out the review
Foreign donors can effectively give money if they have a trading UK subsidiary at the moment.
The government has already promised to clamp down on “shell” companies, but this could give more clarity over how this will work.
It could also look at funding of “troll farms” – vast banks of social media accounts based overseas designed to try and sway public opinion as part of state disinformation campaigns.
However, the financial affairs of and donations to Labour MPs could be in the scope of the review, and those named in the report could face fresh disciplinary consequences.
The government also singled out Christine Lee, the UK-based lawyer accused of working covertly on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party, as another case of concern.
Image: Christine Lee is accused of working on behalf of the CCP
Nevertheless, other parties are likely to suggest this is an attempt to change the donation rules in Labour’s favour, after promising to lower the voting age to 16 and cancelling some mayoral elections because of a local government re-organisation.
The review will invite all party leaders to take part in “in-depth assessment of the current financial rules and safeguards and offer recommendations to further mitigate risks from foreign political interference”.
Mr Rycroft cannot compel politicians to give evidence, but he will have access to the security services, though the extent of their cooperation is unclear.
The conduct around the Brexit referendum has been specifically excluded in the terms of reference, and Mr Rycroft will be instructed to focus on more “recent” cases, although there is no specific start date.
The 12-week timeline for the inquiry, alongside the lack of statutory powers, is likely to make it hard for Mr Rycroft to uncover substantial new incidents of bribery or corruption and prove them to a standard necessary to put details in the public domain.
The publication date, at the end of March, comes just five weeks before local elections in which Reform UK is expected to do well, and opposition politicians are likely to question the timing.
How worried should we be about Russia bribing politicians?
Mr Rycroft has previously locked horns with Boris Johnson.
He argued that, at times, Mr Johnson was a PM who “only speaks for England”, his government was “not sensitive to the niceties of constitutional convention” and had “imperious disregard” for devolved policies, fuelling the breakup of the UK.
In June last year, just before the election, when Rishi Sunak was PM, he signed a letter to The Times which said: “Trust in politics, and in the people and institutions of public life, is at an all-time low.
“This is a serious problem for the health of our democracy and is indicative of the need for substantial improvement in the governance of the UK.”
Mr Rycroft has previously expressed his caution about the relationship between big tech and politics, telling Sky News two years ago: “Politicians do have to be a little bit careful in this space.
“Nobody’s elected Elon Musk, his opinions are those of a businessman, he is not a statesman.
“Clearly, they can court business people for their investment, but they shouldn’t look as though they’re kowtowing to them in terms of their regulatory concepts.
“They should listen to their views, but it should be democratically elected politicians that take those really, really important decisions, and let’s hope that’s the case in the UK.”
It comes as Reform and the Conservatives both received significantly higher donations than Labour in the first three quarters of this year.
They included the largest ever political donation from a living person: £9m to Reform UK from British-Thai businessman Christopher Harborne.
Scotland’s justice secretary has survived a vote of no confidence amid claims she misrepresented a leading expert on grooming gangs and therefore misled parliament.
MSP Angela Constance has ignored calls to stand down and has First Minister John Swinney’s full backing in the wake of comments she made about Professor Alexis Jay.
Mr Swinney led her defence, describing her as a “sincere minister” who was “getting on with the job of making Scotland safer”.
Both Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives lodged motions of no confidence, with a debate held at Holyrood on Tuesday afternoon.
Scottish Labour, the Scottish Tories and the Scottish Liberal Democrats joined forces to vote against Ms Constance, but the motion failed due to the backing of the SNP and Scottish Greens.
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Image: Justice Secretary Angela Constance at Holyrood on Tuesday. Pic: PA
MSP Russell Findlay, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said: “Shameless SNP and Green MSPs put partisan politics before truth and integrity, to the understandable fury of grooming gang victims.
“To any reasonable person, Angela Constance’s position is untenable. She misled parliament by misrepresenting Professor Jay, tried to cover it up and then publicly lied after being caught.
“She twisted Professor Jay’s words to reject our calls for a Scottish grooming gangs inquiry and then failed to correct the record.
“It’s an open-and-shut case of a ministerial code breach for which she should lose her job.”
Amid a failed Scottish Conservative amendment for a public inquiry to be established into grooming gangs in Scotland, Ms Constance insisted Professor Jay agreed with her that such a probe was not needed.
However, emails made public by the Scottish government last week revealed the professor – who led the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Exploitation in Rotherham in 2014 – later contacted Ms Constance to say she would “appreciate” her position “being clarified”.
Professor Jay added that her comments quoted by Ms Constance had “nothing to do” with the situation in Scotland.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said he supported the motion as “victims and survivors of grooming gangs and child sexual exploitation have lost confidence in this justice secretary”.
He added: “The justice secretary misrepresented Professor Jay’s views in order to find an excuse not to have an inquiry into grooming gangs.
“Victims and survivors should be able to rely on their justice system, and their government, to tell the truth, to act with integrity and to put them first.
“On this, the justice secretary has failed.”
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During First Minister’s Questions last week, Mr Swinney claimed Ms Constance “was making a general comment” on the situation as he gave his justice secretary his full backing.
He reiterated his support for Ms Constance during the debate, saying: “The cabinet secretary in the debate in September did not state that Professor Jay was speaking directly about the amendment.
“She made a general point drawing on the publicly stated views of Professor Jay.
“But I acknowledge that members of parliament and members of the public will draw different conclusions from the words we all use.”
Mr Swinney described Ms Constance as a “sincere minister who would never address parliament in a way that would in any way mislead parliament or the public”.
The first minister added: “She’s never shied away from asking tough questions about our approach to justice.
“Nor has she ever avoided tackling some of the biggest issues that we face.
“For these reasons, Angela Constance has my full confidence as justice secretary.
“She’s getting on with the job of making Scotland safer, and I urge members to enable her to continue doing that by rejecting this motion today.”
The motion was defeated by 57 votes to 67, with one abstention
US Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the more outspoken voices against digital assets in Congress, is calling for answers from Justice Department and Treasury Department officials about a potential investigation into decentralized crypto exchanges, citing concerns over PancakeSwap and Uniswap.
In a Monday letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Attorney General Pam Bondi, Warren asked whether their respective departments were “investigating significant national security risks posed by decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges like PancakeSwap.”
The Massachusetts senator raised concerns about “improper political influence” from the Trump administration over the selective enforcement of crypto companies and reports of money laundering tied to North Korea, asking for a response by Jan. 12.
“As Congress considers crypto market structure legislation—including rules to prevent terrorists, criminals, and rogue states from exploiting decentralized finance (DeFi) to fund their activities—it is critical to understand whether you are seriously investigating these risks,” Warren wrote to Bessent and Bondi, adding:
“The public deserves to know whether you are investigating the serious risks identified by national security experts and the crypto industry itself.”
Warren’s letter came as the US Senate prepared to wind down activities before the chamber broke for the holidays. Some Republicans on the Banking Committee had expected to address the digital market structure bill, known as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, before the end of the year. However, Chair Tim Scott confirmed on Monday that a markup hearing on the legislation had been pushed to 2026.
The Massachusetts senator also raised concerns over reports that PancakeSwap had been “drumming up interest among traders to use coins issued by the Trump family’s main crypto company, World Liberty Financial.”
Some Senate Democrats have raised concerns about the US president’s potential influence and conflicts of interest regarding the legislation, given his and his family’s ties to the crypto industry.
XRP lawyer who challenged Warren in 2024 will run again
John Deaton, the lawyer who ran against Warren in the 2024 US election, is making another bid for Congress. Deaton has been an advocate for XRP (XRP) holders in court, emerging as a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry over the past few years.
In November, he announced that he would run as a Republican for the US Senate again in 2026. Warren is not up for reelection next year, so Deaton will be attempting to unseat Democratic Senator Ed Markey.