Boris Johnson is expected to raise national insurance by about 1.2% to pay for a pledge to end the “catastrophic costs” of social care, a move Tory MPs claim amounts to a £10bn tax raid.
On Tuesday, he is planning a major launch of a long-awaited shake-up which he claims will fulfil a pledge he made when he became prime minister two years ago to “fix the broken care system”.
The national insurance hike will also help fund a major drive to clear the massive backlog in NHS operations and treatment caused by COVID, which has seen waiting lists soar to over five million.
Image: Chancellor Rishi Sunak made an appeal for loyalty to the PM on Monday night
The extra cash for the NHS will be targeted on boosting capacity in hospitals amid predictions that the backlog could more than double to 13 million people on waiting lists by the end of this year.
After driving his plan through his potentially mutinous cabinet at its first meeting in Number 10 for more than a year, Mr Johnson will confront Tory critics and opposition MPs in a House of Commons statement.
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He will then attempt to portray a united cabinet front as he unveils the government’s proposals at a Downing Street news conference, flanked by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak and the Health Secretary Sajid Javid.
The prime minister claims the social care package is a “fair, reasonable and necessary plan” to ensure the NHS has the long-term funding it needs.
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But he is facing a furious backlash from ministers and backbench MPs who are incensed that the PM is poised to break a promise in the Tories’ 2019 election manifesto not to raise national insurance.
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July 2019 – Boris Johnson’s first speech as PM in full
Other Tory MPs claim the proposals will hit workers on low and modest incomes while protecting better off couples who are currently forced to sell their home to pay for care in later life.
But speaking ahead of the launch, a defiant Mr Johnson declared: “The NHS is the pride of our United Kingdom, but it has been put under enormous strain by the pandemic. We cannot expect it to recover alone.
Image: The 2019 Conservative manifesto included a personal ‘guarantee’ from Boris Johnson that there wouldn’t be tax rises
“We must act now to ensure the health and care system has the long-term funding it needs to continue fighting COVID and start tackling the backlogs, and end the injustice of catastrophic costs for social care.
“My government will not duck the tough decisions needed to get NHS patients the treatment they need and to fix our broken social care system.”
But while the Conservative manifesto promised a “long-term solution” on social care, it also pledged: “We promise not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.
“This is a tax guarantee that will protect the incomes of hard-working families across the next parliament.”
Labour’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth hit back at the PM ahead of the unveiling of his social care plans.
“A Tory decade of neglect left us unprepared for the pandemic and means waiting lists are at record levels with patients waiting longer in pain, A&Es regularly in crisis, cancer survival rates at risk of going backwards and millions struggling to access adequate mental health support,” Mr Ashworth said.
“In social care, swingeing cuts have left the service at breaking points and left over a million of the most vulnerable without help.
“A long-term plan on social care and a rescue plan to address the crisis the NHS has been in for years are both long overdue.
“The NHS is in desperate need, but the prime minister – along with every Conservative MP – was elected on a manifesto that promised to fix social care on a plan that had been developed and promised no rise in national insurance.
“His broken promises on tax rises cannot be followed by more broken promises for the NHS.”
Image: The PM made a pledge two years ago to ‘fix the broken care system’
In an 11th-hour attempt to win over angry Tory MPs, Mr Sunak made an appeal for loyalty to the PM in a speech to the backbench 1922 Committee on Monday night.
“It’s fair to say that we’ve got a tough autumn ahead,” the chancellor said.
“That doesn’t mean there won’t be disagreements. There always are. But we should never lose sight of the central fact that we are a team, leading with our values and presenting a united front to the country.
“I, like all of you, take our lead from the prime minister, the leader of our party and the country. We owe him our support and loyalty.”
Foreshadowing the PM’s funding plans, a government source said: “The NHS cared for us during the worst pandemic in a century.
“Over half a million COVID patients have been admitted to hospital since March 2020, and on one day alone in January 2021, over 34,000 patients were in hospital.
“During national restrictions, the NHS remained open for anyone who needed it. Urgent treatment, including cancer care and A&E services, continued.
“NHS staff and beds were redirected from non-urgent care to help the influx of COVID patients. An entire vaccination system was set up from scratch, administering 88 million vaccines so far and saving countless lives.
“Less urgent treatment was temporarily paused and as a result, the number of people waiting for treatment has quickly multiplied.”
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NHS to get extra £5.4bn, says Javid
The government says a new plan is now needed to put the necessary resources in place to provide care and treatment for all and to protect the NHS’s ability to deliver the core function it was set up for.
Ministers admit that the number of patients now waiting for elective surgery and routine treatment in England is at a record high of over five million and – left unchecked – could reach 13 million by the end of the year.
Before the pandemic, nine out of 10 people were treated within 26 weeks. Despite huge efforts by NHS staff, that is now 44 weeks, and more than 300,000 people have been waiting over a year for non-urgent care.
This includes hip replacements, knee surgery, and cataract treatment, all of which can severely limit someone’s quality of life.
On social care, the government says that under the current system anyone with assets over £23,350 pays for their care in full. This can lead to spiralling costs and the complete liquidation of someone’s assets.
Around one in seven people now pay over £100,000 and there is an unfair discrepancy between someone who has dementia paying for their care in full, while someone cared for by the NHS receives care for free.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.
High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.
The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.
Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.
The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.
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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.
French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.
A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.
“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.
“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”
It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.
“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.
“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.
He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.
“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.
“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.
“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”
Ex-Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry has defected to Reform, in the latest blow to the Conservatives.
The former MP for Rossendale and Darwen, who served as Northern Powerhouse minister under Boris Johnson and lost his seat last year, said he had defected to Nigel Farage’s party because the Tories had “lost their way”.
Reform UK confirmed the defection to Sky News, which was first broken by The Sun.
Speaking to the paper, Sir Jake said Mr Farage’s party was the “last chance to pull Britain back from terminal decline”.
“Our streets are completely lawless,” he said.
“Migration is out of control. Taxes are going through the roof.
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“And day after day, I hear from people in my community and beyond who say the same thing: ‘This isn’t the Britain I grew up in’.”
Sir Jake accused his former party of “abandoning the British people” but said he was not “giving up”.
“I’m staying. And I’m fighting.
“Fighting for the Britain I want my kids, and one day, my grandkids, to grow up in.”
Mr Farage welcomed what he said was “a very brave decision” by Sir Jake.
“His admission that the Conservative government he was part of broke the country is unprecedented and principled,” he added.
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Reform support increasing the benefits bill by removing the two-child cap, and nationalising British industry. By contrast the Conservatives, under new leadership, will keep making the case for sound money, lower taxes and bringing the welfare bill under control.
“We wish Jake well in his new high spend, high tax party.”
Sir Jake’s defection to Reform comes just days after former Conservative cabinet minister David Jones joined Reform UK, which continues to lead in the polls.
Image: Former Welsh secretary David Jones (R) alongside Tory MP Mark Francois. Pic: PA
Mr Jones, who was MP for Clwyd West from 2005 until standing down in 2024, said he had quit the Tories after “more than 50 years of continuous membership”.
Sir Jake was the MP Rossendale and Darwen in Lancashire between 2010 and 2024, when he was defeated by Labour’s Andy MacNae.
He held several ministerial posts including in the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Energy and Climate Change and the Cabinet Office.
Image: Nigel Farage after winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Pic: Reuters
He was also chairman of the Conservative Party from September to October 2022, under Liz Truss.
Announcing his defection – which comes a year after the Tories suffered their worst ever election defeat – Sir Jake said “Britain was broken” and “the Conservative governments I was part of share the blame”.
“We now have a tax system that punishes hard work and ambition,” he said.
“Just this week, we saw record numbers of our brightest and best people leaving Britain because they can’t see a future here. At the same time, our benefits system is pulling in the world’s poor with no plan for integration and no control over who comes in.
“If you were deliberately trying to wreck the country, you’d be hard-pressed to do a better job than the last two decades of Labour and Tory rule.
“Millions of people, just like me, want a country they can be proud of again. The only way we get that is with Reform in government. That’s why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party. I’m now backing Reform UK and working to make them the next party of government.”
He added: “And with Nigel Farage leading Reform, we’ve got someone the country can actually trust. He doesn’t change his views to fit the mood of the day. And people respect that. So do I. That’s why I believe he should be our next prime minister.”
A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Not content with taking advice from Liz Truss, Nigel Farage has now tempted her Tory Party chairman into his ranks.
“It’s clear Farage wants Liz Truss’s reckless economics, which crashed our economy and sent mortgages spiralling, to be Reform’s blueprint for Britain. It’s a recipe for disaster and working people would be left paying the price.”
In a bid to thwart further opposition to the bill following last week’s climbdown, the government said it would not try to introduce any more reforms to personal independence payments (PIP) until a review by work and pensions minister Sir Stephen Timms on the assessment process has concluded.
Sir Stephen said he wanted to finish his review by next autumn, but that the government would not agree to complete the review in 12 months as some MPs wanted.
Marie Tidball, the Labour MP who had called for the 12-month limit, later signalled she was happy with the government’s compromise.
Ministers also agreed to her calls to have a majority of the taskforce looking at PIP to be disabled or from disability organisations, and for the outcome of the review to come before any PIP changes. It will also be voted on by MPs.
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A total of 47 Labour MPs have rebelled against the government to vote against its welfare reforms.
Mother of the House Diane Abbott, former minister Dawn Butler, Andy McDonald, Stella Creasy and Jonathan Brash were among those in the “no” lobby.
Meanwhile, MPs rejected a separate amendment by Green MP Sian Berry, which called for the basic rate of universal credit to increase by 4.8% above inflation each year until 2030.
A total of 39 Labour MPs voted for scrapping the clauses that halved Universal Credit for new claimants – the only major cut left in the bill after the government made its concessions.
The passing of the bill will come as a relief to Sir Keir Starmer, who last week was forced into a humiliating climbdown over his flagship welfare package in the face of significant opposition from his own MPs.
Prior to the vote last Tuesday, the government offered significant concessions including exempting existing personal independence payment claimants (PIP) from stricter new criteria and only freezing and cutting the universal credit health top-up for new applications.
As the vote last week unfolded, it offered further confessions amid concerns the bill could be voted down – notably, that changes in eligibility for PIP would not take place until a review he is carrying out into the benefit is published in autumn 2026.
They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.