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Boris Johnson will be confident of victory in a snap Commons vote on his NHS bailout and social care shake-up, which MPs are claiming is the biggest political gamble of his premiership.

Defying potential Tory rebels, the prime minister has raised taxes to their highest level since the Second World War and broken Conservative manifesto pledges on taxation and pensions.

And ahead of a debate and vote on what some senior Tories are calling a one-item Budget, the threat of a damaging backbench rebellion was receding and a full-scale mutiny close to collapse.

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PM promises social care boost

The crucial vote, just 24 hours after Mr Johnson unveiled his £12 billion tax hike, is on a motion to give the government the authority to create a healthcare levy and change the rate of national insurance.

Writing in the Daily Mail, the prime minister said he wanted to put an end to the “cruel lottery” of who will or will not face financial ruin to meet their care costs.

Mr Johnson conceded that a lot of the money raised would not, at least in the short term, be going towards social care reform, but would be used to relieve pressure on the NHS and to clear the “backlog of missed operations and treatments”.

He said he had ruled out borrowing to pay for his proposed reforms and instead had “reluctantly concluded that the only responsible course is to ask everyone to pay more”.

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He added: “No one in this Conservative government wants to raise taxes. But after the extraordinary exertions of the NHS – and the sacrifices made by countless people – we cannot shirk the challenge.”

And although the PM has not ruled out further tax rises, most Conservative MPs back the post-COVID emergency cash injection to tackle the massive NHS backlog and accept that reform of social care funding is long overdue.

Many MPs also see the snap vote as a move to bounce potential rebels into backing the controversial proposals and claim the threat of an imminent government reshuffle is being used by No. 10 to exert pressure on MPs and ministers to remain loyal.

The prime minister’s move to combine his tax hike to pay for social care reforms with extra cash to fight the COVID backlog in the NHS is being seen as a political masterstroke that effectively killed off the threat of a major rebellion.

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Is the social care plan fair or unfair?

Defending the tax hike, Chancellor Rishi Sunak writes in The Times: “This is one of the most consequential decisions a government has made on a matter of public policy in my lifetime; a decision that governments of all political colours have said they would make, but ultimately ducked.

“But we can’t spend money we don’t have, and this will come at a cost. There will be some who will say that we should borrow, and hope that in the end it will all come good. But no responsible government would ever plan on that basis.

“With national debt set to reach nearly 100 per cent of GDP and our borrowing levels high as a result of the pandemic, we must take the difficult decisions. So we have made the tough but responsible choice to raise taxes.

“And the only way to raise such significant sums is from income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions (NICs). We believe NICs is the fairest and most progressive approach.”

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A budget in all but name

The Commons vote presents a dilemma for Labour, which also backs more cash for the NHS but is opposed to the 1.25% rise in national insurance. Sir Keir Starmer held an emergency meeting of his shadow cabinet to decide how to respond.

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Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

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Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

A plan reportedly circulating in the Trump administration would sees the US take over Gaza and give Palestinians a digital token for their land.

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Reform deputy attacks govt for ‘protecting rights’ of illegal migrants – and fires back at Archbishop of York

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Reform deputy attacks govt for 'protecting rights' of illegal migrants - and fires back at Archbishop of York

Reform UK has hit back at both the Archbishop of York and the government following criticism of its immigration policies.

Leader Nigel Farage announced the party’s flagship immigration plan during a flashy news conference held at an aircraft hangar in Oxford on Tuesday.

The party pledged to deport anybody who comes to the UK illegally, regardless of whether they might come to harm, and said it would pay countries with questionable human rights records – such as Afghanistan – to take people back.

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It also said it would leave numerous international agreements, and revoke the Human Rights Act, in order to do this.

The policy was criticised by the Conservatives, who said Mr Farage was “copying our homework”, while parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens condemned it.

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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA
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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA

But the plan came under fire from an altogether different angle on Saturday, when the Archbishop of York accused it of being an “isolationist, short-term kneejerk” approach, with no “long-term solutions”.

Stephen Cottrell, who is the acting head of the Church of England, told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he had “every sympathy” with those who find the issue of immigration tricky. But he said Reform UK’s plan does “nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country”, and would in fact, make “the problem worse”.

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In full: Richard Tice on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

Speaking on the same programme, Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, responded to the archbishop’s criticisms, saying that “all of it is wrong”.

The MP for Boston and Skegness said he was a Christian who “enjoys” the church – but that the “role of the archbishop is not actually to interfere with international migration policies”.

Mr Tice then turned his fire on the government, accusing ministers of being “more interested in protecting the rights of people who’ve come here illegally… than looking after the rights of British citizens”.

He accused ministers of having “abandoned” their duty of “looking after the interests of British citizens”.

Mr Tice reaffirmed his party’s policy that the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), calling it a “70-year-old, out-of-date, unfit-for-purpose agreement”.

The Reform UK deputy leader also:

• Defended plans to pay the Taliban to take migrants back, comparing it to doing business deals with “people you don’t like”

• Said the Royal Navy should be deployed in the English Channel as a “deterrent”, but added: “We’re not saying sink the boats”

• Urged the government to call an early general election

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Farage ‘wants to provoke anger’

Meanwhile, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, told Sky News that Reform “want to provoke anger, but they don’t actually want to solve the problems that we face in front of us”.

She told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the UK had a “proud tradition [of] supporting those facing persecution”.

But she added: “We will make sure that people who have no right to be in this country are removed from this country. That’s right. It’s what people expect. It’s what this government will deliver.”

Ms Phillipson also insisted there “needs to be reform of the ECHR” and said the home secretary is “looking at the article eight provisions”, which cover the right to a private and family life, to see “whether they need updating and reforming for the modern age”.

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However, she refused to say what the government would do if it is found that the ECHR is unreformable. Instead, she defended Labour’s position of staying in the governance of the convention, saying that honouring the “rule of law” is important.

She added: “Our standing in the world matters if we want to strike trade deals with countries. We need to be a country that’s taken seriously. We need to be a country that honours our obligations and honours the rule of law.”

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Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

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Asylum seekers to remain at Bell Hotel

Ms Phillipson was also drawn on the recent court ruling in favour of the Home Office, which overturned an injunction banning The Bell Hotel in Epping from housing asylum seekers.

Challenged on whether the government is prioritising the rights of asylum seekers over British citizens, she said it “is about a balance of rights”.

The cabinet minister also repeated the government’s plans to end the use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.

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‘We should have overruled law’

Shadow Cabinet Office minister Alex Burghart said the Conservatives would be willing to leave the ECHR – if this route is recommended to them.

The Tories have asked a senior judge to look into the “legal intricacies” of leaving the convention, which he said is “not straightforward”. He said when the party receives that report, it will then make a decision.

Challenged on whether the Tories will leave if that is what the report recommends, he added: “If that’s what’s necessary, we will do it.”

Mr Burghart also said he believed the previous Conservative government’s biggest mistake was that “we did not go far enough on overruling human rights legislation”, which prevented it from “taking the tough action that was absolutely necessary”.

But he added the Conservatives have now “put forward very clear legislation that would solve this problem” – though he concluded Labour “isn’t going to do it” so the problem “is going to get worse”.

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage ‘kneejerk’ migrant deportation plan won’t solve problem

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage 'kneejerk' migrant deportation plan won't solve problem

The Archbishop of York has told Sky News the UK should resist Reform’s “kneejerk” plan for the mass deportation of migrants, telling Nigel Farage he is not offering any “long-term solution”.

Stephen Cottrell said in an interview with Trevor Phillips he has “every sympathy” with people who are concerned about asylum seekers coming to the country illegally.

But he criticised the plan announced by Reform on Tuesday to deport 600,000 people, which would be enabled by striking deals with the Taliban and Iran, saying it will not “solve the problem”.

Mr Cottrell is currently acting head of the Church of England while a new Archbishop of Canterbury is chosen.

Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire
Image:
Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire

The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA
Image:
The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA

Phillips asked him: “What’s your response to the people who are saying the policy should be ‘you land here, unlawfully, you get locked up and you get deported straight away. No ifs, no buts’?”

Mr Cottrell said he would tell them “you haven’t solved the problem”, adding: “You’ve just put it somewhere else and you’ve done nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country.

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“And so if you think that’s the answer, you will discover in due course that all you have done is made the problem worse.

“Don’t misunderstand me, I have every sympathy with those who find this difficult, every sympathy – as I do with those living in poverty.

“But… we should actively resist the kind of isolationist, short term kneejerk ‘send them home’.”

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What do public make of Reform’s plans?

Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK's plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK’s plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA

Asked if that was his message to the Reform leader, he said: “Well, it is. I mean, Mr Farage is saying the things he’s saying, but he is not offering any long-term solution to the big issues which are convulsing our world, which lead to this. And, I see no other way.”

You can watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am

Mr Farage, the MP for Clacton, was asked at a news conference this week what he would say if Christian leaders opposed his plan.

“Whoever the Christian leaders are at any given point in time, I think over the last decades, quite a few of them have been rather out of touch, perhaps with their own flock,” he said.

“We believe that what we’re offering is right and proper, and we believe for a political party that was founded around the slogan of family, community, country that we are doing right by all of those things, with these plans we put forward today.”

Sky News has approached Mr Farage for comment.

Farage won’t be greeting this as good news of the gospel – nor will govt ministers

When Tony Blair’s spin doctor Alastair Campbell told journalists that “We don’t do God”, many took it as a statement of ideology.

In fact it was the caution of a canny operator who knows that the most dangerous opponent in politics is a religious leader licensed to challenge your very morality.

Stephen Cottrell, the Archbishop of York, currently the effective head of the worldwide Anglican communion, could not have been clearer in his denunciation of what he calls the Reform party’s “isolationist, short term, kneejerk ‘send them home'” approach to asylum and immigration.

I sense that having ruled himself out of the race for next Archbishop of Canterbury, Reverend Cottrell feels free to preach a liberal doctrine.

Unusually, in our interview he pinpoints a political leader as, in effect, failing to demonstrate Christian charity.

Nigel Farage, who describes himself as a practising Christian, won’t be greeting this as the good news of the gospel.

But government ministers will also be feeling nervous.

Battered for allowing record numbers of cross- Channel migrants, and facing legal battles on asylum hotels that may go all the way to the Supreme Court, Labour has tried to head off the Reform challenge with tougher language on border control.

The last thing the prime minister needs right now is to make an enemy of the Almighty – or at least of his representatives on Earth.

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