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Britain’s economic recovery is expected to slow over coming months thanks to staff shortages and supply chain disruption, according to a new forecast from a leading business group.

Official figures show UK GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter but the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) predicts this will slow to 2.8% in the third quarter and 1.6% in the last three months of 2021.

The BCC also warned of the “real danger” that the £12bn National Insurance hike announced this week could further stifle Britain’s bounce back.

BoE governor - Andrew Bailey
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Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he feared worker shortages could persist

The warning about the impact of labour shortages comes a day after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he feared the problem could persist.

HGV drivers and meat processing workers are among the areas where shortages have been identified.

Supply issues have affected a number of well-known businesses including Ikea, McDonald’s, Greggs and Wetherspoons.

The BCC’s forecast comes on the same day as a new report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) showed recruiters and employers faced an unprecedented decline in the availability of candidates for roles.

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According to the BCC’s new forecast, Britain will still post annual growth of 7.1% for 2021 as a whole, which would be the strongest on records going back to 1949.

However the slowdown in the pace of the recovery – after last year’s pandemic-driven recession – means it is now not expected to reach pre-COVID levels until the first quarter of next year.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the economy remained “on course for a historic revival” this year thanks to the release of pent-up consumer demand as well as higher government spending.

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‘Perfect storm’ for retailers as Brexit and pandemic hit, says babywear boss

“However, our latest outlook also points to a loss of momentum  in the coming months as staff shortages, supply chain disruption and rising cost pressures limit output from many sectors,” he added.

“A prolonged period of acute supply and staff shortages could derail the recovery by forcing firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity, eroding their ability to fulfil orders and meet customer demand.”

Hannah Essex, the BCC’s co-executive director, said: ”There is a real danger the National Insurance increase announced this week could stifle the recovery.”

The forecast came as the monthly UK report on jobs from the REC and KPMG showed a further rapid increase in hiring in August, spurred by improved confidence in the economic outlook.

At the same time a lack of availability of workers spurred sharp increases in starting salaries.

Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, said: “The number of staff available to start jobs fell at another new record rate, deepening the current labour shortage.

“Recruiters are working around the clock, placing more people into work than ever as these figures show.

“Switching the entire economy on over the summer has created a unique demand spike, and a short-term crisis.

“But it would be a mistake for businesses to think of this as only a short-term issue.

“A number of factors mean that the UK labour market will remain tight for several years to come.”

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Farage and Tice right to scrutinise one of Bank of England’s most radical monetary experiments in history

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Farage and Tice right to scrutinise one of Bank of England's most radical monetary experiments in history

There was some speculation, when it emerged that Nigel Farage was heading to Threadneedle Street to see the Bank of England governor, that he was about to “do a Trump”.

You might recall, if you follow American politics, how the US president has been, for want of a better word, trolling the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, threatening to fire him if he didn’t cut interest rates. Might Mr Farage and Reform be about to do the same thing in the UK, raising deep (and, for economists, scary) questions about the independence of the central bank?

The short answer, as far as anyone can tell following today’s meeting, is: no. Instead, Mr Farage and his fellow Reform MP Richard Tice enjoyed a relatively cordial meeting with the governor, where they discussed the intricacies of quantitative easing, the Bank’s reserves policies and even cryptocurrency – a slightly unexpected addition to the agenda which might reflect the fact that Reform is hoping to raise lots of campaign funds from crypto dudes.

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The main Bank-related issue Reform has been campaigning on – Mr Tice in particular – comes back to something seemingly arcane but certainly important. As you may be aware, in recent years, the Bank of England has, alongside its interest rate policy, been engaged in something called quantitative easing (QE). QE is complex, but it boils down to this: in an effort to boost the economy, the Bank bought up a lot of government bonds and they now sit awkwardly in its balance sheet. In recent months, the Bank has begun to reverse QE (quantitative tightening) – selling off billions of pounds of bonds.

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Bank of England’s £134bn gamble

Anyway, reach deeper into the arcane mechanism of how QE works and something interesting leaps out. Two things, actually. First, as part of QE, in order to get hold of those government bonds, the Bank created “reserves” – sort of bank-account-at-the-Bank-of-England – for the high street banks from whom it bought them.

Tens of billions to high street banks

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Those reserves earn interest at the Bank’s official interest rate. At the time of QE, the rate was near zero, so no one spent much time thinking about reserves. But since then, rates went up to 5.25%, and are now at 4%, and hence the Bank has recently been paying out a hefty amount – tens of billions of pounds – in interest to high street banks.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and deputy leader Richard Tice speaking to the media outside the Bank Of England in central London. Pic: PA
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and deputy leader Richard Tice speaking to the media outside the Bank Of England in central London. Pic: PA

This, says Richard Tice, is an abomination. In the last Reform manifesto, he said the Bank should stop paying out those reserves. Which, on the face of it, sounds perfectly sensible. However, there are a few catches.

A big bank tax

The first is that while in theory it might help recoup billions of pounds of public money, that money has to come from somewhere, and in this case, it would come from high street banks. In other words, this is, in all but name, a very big bank tax. The Bank of England’s point, when asked about all this, is that if anyone is going to do something like that, it should really be the government, since it’s rightly in charge of taxing and spending.

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The other catch is that Bank of England reserves systems are desperately complex. Changing the way they’re structured is a delicate operation. Running a coach and horses through it, as Mr Tice is suggesting, could have all sorts of unintended consequences, including undermining confidence in UK economic policy.

This, by the way, is not the only thing Reform is unhappy about: they also think the Bank should slow down its quantitative tightening programme.

But the point of all the above is that while there are some big question marks about the particular idea Reform is proposing, the worst thing of all would be not to discuss this as publicly as possible.

The worst outcome of all would be for the government and Bank to take certain decisions which affect billions of pounds of public money with only the merest of scrutiny, save at the Treasury Select Committee, whose sessions rarely get much attention beyond the financial pages. And that is more or less the situation we’ve had for the past decade and a half.

The Bank of England has introduced one of the most radical monetary experiments in history, which may or may not have been a success or a failure, but few outside of the City are even aware of it. Mr Tice’s policy platform may be flawed, but his overarching point – that this stuff desperately needs more scrutiny – is quite right.

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) “failed to finalise” a cyber insurance deal before it was struck by hackers last month, forcing a halt to production and threatening the future of its supply chain, according to an industry journal.

The Insurer, citing three insurance sector sources, said Britain’s biggest carmaker was still in negotiations over cover before the cyber attack at the end of August.

It opens the prospect that the company faces footing the bill for the hacking by itself.

Losses will easily run into many hundreds of millions of pounds, with its global factory shutdown set to last for a month at least.

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JLR shutdown extended

Marks and Spencer, which was targeted back in April, said it expected that the estimated £300m bill it was facing from the disruption would be largely offset by the cyber insurance cover it had taken out.

As frantic efforts continue at JLR to recover its systems, the government is exploring ways to support JLR’s supply chain and the 200,000 jobs within it.

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One idea under consideration, according to ITV News, was taxpayer money being used to purchase parts.

These components could then be sold back to JLR as its manufacturing operations got back up to speed, resulting in no direct losses for the public purse.

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Inside factory affected by Jaguar Land Rover shutdown

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many suppliers had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its manufacturing freeze.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

Union demands for a COVID-style furlough scheme have not been taken up by ministers, who have said that support to date has come only from JLR.

Industry minister Chris McDonald said on a visit to a West Midlands manufacturer on Tuesday he was “supremely confident” that JLR would get through the cyber attack.

He added: “What I really want this to be is a wake-up call to British industry. I’m affronted by this attack on British industry. This is a serious attack on a flagship of British industry.”

Jaguar Land Rover said it declined to comment on commercial matters.

The government has also been approached for comment.

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Co-op reveals £80m profit hit from cyber attack disruption – with more to come

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Co-op reveals £80m profit hit from cyber attack disruption - with more to come

A cyber attack in April delivered an £80m hit to half-year operating profits at the Co-operative Group, it has been revealed.

The results showed an underlying pre-tax loss of £75m over the six months to 5 July compared to a profit of £3m over the same period a year ago.

The £80m figure included a £20m hit from one-off costs. The impact of the attack on sales revenue was estimated at £206m.

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While the mutual had insurance cover for operational disruption, it did not have a policy to meet full losses arising from a cyber incident.

It further revealed that the total profit damage was expected to nudge £120m over its full financial year.

Co-op was among several retailers hit in April, including M&S, and iall its members had data stolen.

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A Co-op Group store is shown in Manchester during the height of the cyber attack disruption. Pic: PA
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A Co-op Group store is shown in Manchester during the height of the cyber attack disruption. Pic: PA

In-store, customers faced problems making payments initially and latterly empty shelves as the group struggled to restore control of key systems.

It prioritised rural stores for limited deliveries until stocks recovered in late May.

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July: Four arrested over M&S, Co-Op and Harrods cyber attacks

Co-op chair Debbie White said: “The first half of 2025 brought significant challenges, most notably from a malicious cyber attack.

“Our balance sheet strength and the magnificent response of our 53,000 colleagues enabled us to maintain vital services for our members and their communities.

“We must now build our Co-op back better and stronger to meet the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.”

The attacks on the retailers, which have resulted in four arrests, have brought the insurance issue to the fore as Jaguar Land Rover battles the impact of a similar attack.

Its factories are currently on track to produce nothing for at least a month and the government is now actively considering some kind of taxpayer support for its vast supply chain.

It has been reported that it was in discussions over cyber cover when its systems came under attack at the end of August.

Like the Co-op, it leaves the company facing the prospect of meeting many of the costs itself.

M&S put a £300m cost on the ransomware attack on its own systems ahead of Easter but expects to claw much of that money back through insurance payouts.

The government has this week described the run of hacking attempts as a further wake up call to the business community and urged continued investment in cyber security.

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