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Up to 660,000 jobs – many in the UK’s industrial heartlands – are at risk unless Boris Johnson speeds up green investment and moving to “net zero” carbon dioxide emissions, according to a major study.

Many of the areas where jobs are most under threat include the “red wall” constituencies won by the Conservatives from Labour at the last election, and the unemployment threat will worry Tory MPs from these areas.

The warning comes in analysis by the TUC as it begins a three-day conference and just weeks before the Prime Minister welcomes world leaders including President Biden to the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow.

Besides climate change, being debated on day one, the TUC’s part-virtual conference at its London HQ will be dominated by protecting jobs post-COVID, opposition to last week’s national insurance hike and the planned £20 universal credit cut next month.

Spelling out the jobs warning, general secretary Frances O’Grady, who speaks in person on day two of the conference, declared: “The world is moving very clearly in one direction – away from carbon and toward net zero. The UK must keep up with the pace of change.

“There’s still time to protect vital jobs in manufacturing and its supply chains. But the clock is ticking.

“Unless the government urgently scales up investment in green tech and industry, we risk losing hundreds of thousands of decent jobs to competitor nations.

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“If we move quickly, we can still safeguard Britain’s industrial heartlands. The government should boost investment to at least the G7 average and commit to the Green Jobs Taskforce plans in full.

“Then today’s workers will know that their jobs are safe, and the future can be bright with decent jobs for their children too.”

Sir Keir Starmer will address the conference in person on Tuesday
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Sir Keir Starmer will address the conference in person on Tuesday

The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will address the conference in person on Tuesday, in what is likely to be a dress rehearsal for his Labour conference speech in Brighton two weeks later, which critics claim will be make-or-break for his leadership.

The conference will also see the public debut of new Unite general secretary Sharon Graham, elected last month, who is also due to speak on Tuesday, in support of a TUC motion demanding an end to “fire and rehire” by employers.

The TUC’s job losses analysis is based on data from the Office of National Statistics and researchers Catapult Energy Systems, a company funded by the government through Innovate UK, the UK’s innovation agency.

The unions want the government to implement recommendations in a report in July by its Green Jobs Taskforce, chaired by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, and launch an £85bn green recovery package to create 1.24 million green jobs.

The TUC claims that unless the government acts now nearly 260,000 manufacturing jobs and more than 400,000 in supply chains could be moved offshore to countries that offer superior green infrastructure and greater support for decarbonising industry.

According to a TUC report in June, the UK Treasury is investing £180 per person on green recovery and jobs over the next decade, compared to President Biden planning £2,960 per person on green recovery, jobs and programmes like public transport, electric vehicles and energy efficiency.

Men queue outside of a Job Centre
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Hundreds of thousands of people face unemployment, the TUC has warned

The industries facing the biggest job losses, according to the TUC analysis, are:

• Rubber and plastics: nearly 80,000 jobs;
• Chemicals: 63,000;
• Glass and ceramics: more than 40,000;
• Iron and steel: nearly 27,000;
• Textiles: 18,000;
• Paper, pulp and printing: 15,500.

Supply chain jobs threatened include those in construction, producing and maintaining industrial machinery, transport, and trade, bringing the total number of jobs at risk to 660,000, according to the TUC.

The TUC also claims workers in the UK’s industrial heartlands are particularly at risk, with nearly 40,000 under threat in North West England, nearly 37,000 in Yorkshire and the Humber and more than 30,000 in the West Midlands.

According to the TUC, jobs in the steel industry are at a high risk because manufacturing is currently dependent on burning coal for high temperatures required to produce high-grade steel.

Alan Coombs, who has worked at Port Talbot steelworks for 40 years, said: “Companies overseas are already setting target dates for green steel. But the UK isn’t even putting our toe in the water.

“We have families here who are third or fourth generation working at the plant. If we don’t have apprenticeships in green steel technology soon, there won’t be another generation.

“If we put ourselves at forefront of green innovation, we can protect the workforce. But it needs government action.”

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2024 review: Some of the year’s big moments in eight charts

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2024 review: Some of the year's big moments in eight charts

What a year 2024 was.

A massive election – well, two massive elections on either side of the Atlantic, and more elsewhere around the planet – followed by changes of government and plenty of economic milestones along the way. So let’s remind ourselves of some of the big moments of the year, in chart form.

We begin with the big economic picture. Growth. This time last year, the UK was (unbeknownst to us at the time) actually in recession. The news was only confirmed in the spring of this year, but for two successive quarters in the second half of last year, economic growth fell.

The UK's economy failed to grow in Q3 2024

What’s equally intriguing is what happened next: a rapid bounce-back as gross domestic product increased by more than expected in the first two quarters of the year. Since then, it has tailed off markedly, causing some consternation in the Treasury.

Indeed, an initial estimate of 0.1 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2024 was revised down to zero growth – stagnation.

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Still, interest rates are now finally on the way down. They were cut in August for the first time following the cost of living crisis, and are expected to fall further next year. However, the scale of those expected falls is considerably smaller now than before the Budget. Why? Because the government is planning to borrow and spend considerably more next year.

That wasn’t the only policy in the Budget. Alongside those increases in borrowing and spending, Chancellor Rachel Reeves decided to introduce some significant tax raises – chief among them a big increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

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And while Labour insists this will not be visible on your pay check – and hence isn’t breaking their pre-election pledge – we will, as a nation, be paying considerably more in taxes as a result. Indeed, the tax burden, the total amount of tax incurred by the population as a percentage of GDP, is now heading up to the highest level on record. This is, it’s worth saying, a stark contrast with the costed measures Labour put in their manifesto.

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*There were two general elections in 1974 – in February and October

That brings us to the election itself – an election in which Labour rode to an extraordinary landslide, winning more than 400 seats for the first time since the glory days of Tony Blair. It represented an immense comeback for the party, following such a drubbing in 2019. However, there are some important provisos to note.

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Chief among them is the fact that the party won the smallest share of the vote of any winning party in the modern era. This was not a landslide victory in terms of overall popular support.

Among the issues that has resounded this year, both before the election and after, was migration. This time last year the data suggested that net migration into the UK had peaked at just over 750,000.

But then, last month, new data brought with it a shocking revision. In fact, the Home Office had both undercounted the number of people coming into the country and overcounted the number leaving. The upshot was a new figure: in fact 906,000 more people had entered than departed in the year to last summer. Not just a new record – a totally gobsmacking figure.

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The vast, vast majority of that migration was not the “small boats” so much has been made of but legal migration, more or less equally divided between work and study. It was to some extent the consequence of the post-COVID bounceback and, even more so, changes in government policy as post-Brexit migration rules came into force.

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Another issue which came to light throughout the year was something else: the leakiness of Britain’s sanctions regime with Russia. While government ministers like to boast about how this is the toughest regime on Russia in history, our analysis found that sanctioned British goods are routinely being shipped into Russia via its neighbours in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

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In a series of investigations, we tracked how this carousel works for the trade of cars, which get sent to countries like Azerbaijan before being shuffled around the Caucasus and entering Russia via Georgia and other routes. But that same carousel is likely being used for equipment like drone parts and radar equipment. We know it’s being sent to Russian neighbours. We know it’s ending up on the battlefield. The data tells a stark story about the reality of the sanctions regime – and helps illustrate how Russia is continuing to keep its forces armed and equipped with components from the West.

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Pizza Hut restaurant operator races to finalise new ownership

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Pizza Hut restaurant operator races to finalise new ownership

The operator of nearly 150 Pizza Hut restaurants in the UK is in advanced talks with potential buyers as it races to wrap up a deal to secure its future.

Sky News has learnt that Heart With Smart (HWS), the US-owned brand’s biggest UK franchisee, is aiming to select a preferred bidder in January after weeks of talks with suitors.

Sources close to the process said a range of trade and financial buyers had expressed interest in acquiring a large stake in the dine-in chain.

In November, Sky News revealed that HWS had begun approaching potential bidders as it sought to mitigate the impact of tax hikes announced in the previous month’s Budget.

HWS, which operates roughly 140 Pizza Hut restaurants, is working with Interpath Advisory on the process.

The company, which was previously called Pizza Hut Restaurants, employs about 3,000 people, making it one of the most significant operators in Britain’s casual dining industry.

It is owned by a combination of Pricoa and the company’s management, led by chief executive Jens Hofma.

They led a management buyout reportedly worth £100m in 2018, with the business having previously been owned by Rutland Partners, a private equity firm.

HWS licenses the Pizza Hut name from Yum! Brands, the American food giant which also owns KFC.

Insiders told Sky News last month that the increases to the national living wage and employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) unveiled in the budget by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, would add approximately £4m to HWS’s annual costs – equivalent to more than half of last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

The structure of a takeover or capital injection was unclear on Monday, although the last eight weeks have seen a string of bleak warnings from the hospitality industry.

Even before the budget, restaurant operators were feeling significant pressure, with TGI Fridays collapsing into administration before being sold to a consortium of Breal Capital and Calveton.

Sky News also revealed during the autumn that Pizza Express had hired investment bankers to advise on a debt refinancing.

HWS operates all of Pizza Hut’s dine-in restaurants in Britain, but has no involvement with its large number of delivery outlets, which are run by individual franchisees.

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Accounts filed at Companies House for HWS4 for the period from 5 December 2022 to 3 December 2023 show that it completed a restructuring of its debt under which its lenders agreed to suspend repayments of some of its borrowings until November next year.

The terms of the same facilities were also extended to September 2027, while it also signed a new 10-year Pizza Hut franchise agreement with Yum Brands which expires in 2032.

“Whilst market conditions have improved noticeably since 2022, consumers remain challenged by higher-than-average levels of inflation, high mortgage costs and slow growth in the economy,” the accounts said.

It added: “The costs of business remain challenging.”

Pizza Hut opened its first UK restaurant in the early 1970s and expanded rapidly over the following 15 years.

In 2020, the company announced that it was closing dozens of restaurants, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).

At that time, it operated more than 240 sites across the UK.

HWS declined to comment.

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Almost 170,000 retail jobs lost in 2024 – and there could be even more next year

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Almost 170,000 retail jobs lost in 2024 - and there could be even more next year

Almost 170,000 retail workers lost their jobs this year after the collapse of major high street chains, according to data.

It is the highest since more than 200,000 jobs in the sector were lost in 2020 in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, which forced retailers to shut their stores during lockdowns.

The figures, compiled by the Centre for Retail Research, show a total of 169,395 retail jobs were lost in the 2024 calendar year to date – up 49,990 – an increase of 41.9% – compared with 2023.

It said its latest analysis showed the number of job losses spiked amid the collapse of major chains such as Homebase and Ted Baker.

Around a third of all retail job losses in 2024, 33% or 55,914 in total, resulted from the collapse of businesses, with 38 major retailers going into administration, including other household names such as Lloyds Pharmacy, The Body Shop, and Carpetright.

The rest were through “rationalisation”, as part of cost-cutting programmes by large retailers or small independents choosing to close their stores for good, according to the centre.

Pic: PA
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File pic: PA

Professor Joshua Bamfield, director of the Centre for Retail Research, said: “The comparatively low figures for 2023 now look like an anomaly, a pause for breath by many retailers after lockdowns if you like.

“The problems of changed customer shopping habits, inflation, rising energy costs, rents and business rates have continued and forced many retailers to cut back even more strongly in 2024.”

Independent retailers, which are generally small businesses with between one and five stores, shed 58,616 jobs in total during the year.

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Experts said 2025 is expected to be another challenging year for high street firms, with an increase in national insurance contributions as well as a reduction in discounts for business rates – the property tax affecting high street firms.

The current 75% discount to business rates – due to end on 31 March 2025 – will be replaced by a less generous discount of 40%, with the maximum discount remaining at £110,000.

Alex Probyn, president of property tax at real estate adviser Altus Group, said: “The cut in the business rates discount from 1 April will disproportionately affect independent retailers who will see their bills rise on average by 140% adding an extra £5,024 for the average shop.”

Altus forecasts have predicted the change will save the Treasury money but cost the retail sector an extra £688m.

The British Retail Consortium has also predicted that an increase in employer national insurance contributions and a reduction in the threshold at which firms start paying will create a £2.3bn bill for the sector.

Professor Bamfield has predicted as many as 202,000 jobs could be lost in the sector in 2025.

“By increasing both the costs of running stores and the costs on each consumer’s household it is highly likely that we will see retail job losses eclipse the height of the pandemic in 2020,” he added.

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