Europe’s energy crisis is making the market nervous. And analysts expect record-high prices to persist

Published

3 years ago

September 16, 2021

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Round bales of straw drying on the field are seen in front of the power station operated by RWE AG near Rommerskirchen, Germany on August 10, 2021. The cost of natural gas and electricity has surged across Europe.

Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty Images

LONDON — European power prices have spiraled to multi-year highs on a confluence of factors in recent weeks, ranging from extremely strong commodity and carbon prices to low wind output.

What’s more, the record run in energy prices is not expected to end any time soon, with energy analysts warning market nervousness is likely to persist throughout winter.

The October gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, was seen to climb to a record high of 79 euros ($93.31) a megawatt-hour on Wednesday. The contract has risen more than 250% since January, according to Reuters, while benchmark power contracts in France and Germany have both doubled.

In the U.K., where electricity bills are now the most expensive in Europe, power prices have soared amid the country’s high dependence on gas and renewables to generate electricity.

British day-ahead electricity prices rose nearly 19% to reach 475 pounds ($656.5) on Wednesday, Reuters reported. The contract was already trading near record highs shortly after a fire at a U.K.-France power link cut electricity imports to Britain.

“By far the biggest factor is gas prices,” Glenn Rickson, head of European power analysis at S&P Global Platts Analytics, told CNBC via email.

Higher gas prices have also been a “big driver” in lifting carbon and coal prices to record highs too, Rickson said, although he noted there are other supporting factors at play, such as low wind generation and nuclear plant unavailability across the continent.

Carbon prices in Europe have nearly trebled this year as the European Union reduces the supply of emissions credits. The EU’s benchmark carbon price climbed above 60 euros per metric ton for the first time ever in recent weeks, trading slightly below this threshold on Thursday.

The EU’s Emissions Trading System is the world’s largest carbon trading program, covering around 40% of the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions and charging emitters for every metric ton of carbon dioxide they emit. Record carbon prices have made highly polluting sources of energy generation even less attractive because coal, for example, emits more carbon dioxide when burnt.

Rickson said the outlook for European power prices this winter will be “highly dependent” on gas prices, adding that he expects gas prices to rise even further in the coming months. “Aside from the ‘average’ picture, we expect prices to be highly volatile, with swings from low or even negative hourly prices when wind generation is high, to very high prices as already seen when wind is low, and demand is high.”

How did we get here?

European gas prices have accelerated since the start of April, when unseasonably cold weather conditions meant Europe’s gas in storage dipped below the pre-pandemic five-year average, indicating a potential supply crunch.

Europe has since struggled to bring gas supplies that are necessary for the winter period back to where they should be. An economic rebound as countries eased Covid-19 restrictions also coincided with higher-than-expected demand that led to a shortage of gas.

An output filtration facility of a gas treatment unit at the Slavyanskaya compressor station (operated by Gazprom), the starting point of the Nord Stream 2 offshore natural gas pipeline. According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the construction of Nord Stream 2 will be completed by the end of this year.

Peter Kovalev | TASS | Getty Images

Further to this, Russia has been seen to slow its delivery of piped natural gas to the region, raising questions about whether this may be a deliberate move to bolster its case for starting flows via Nord Stream 2. The controversial pipeline, bringing natural gas to Europe from Russia, bypassing Ukraine and Poland, is soon expected to be fully operational and could resolve some of the region’s supply problems.

This deficit is “making the market nervous as we approach winter,” Stefan Konstantinov, senior analyst at ICIS Energy, a commodity intelligence service, told CNBC. “That is coupled with the very significant competition for LNG supplies from Asia and South America, which is driving gas prices up.”

Climate crisis concerns

Earlier this month, soaring gas prices and low wind output prompted the U.K. to fire up an old coal power plant to meet its electricity needs.

The move raises serious questions about the government’s environmental commitments amid the climate crisis. To be sure, coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel in terms of emissions and therefore the most important target for replacement in the proposed pivot to renewable alternatives.

When asked how the U.K.’s decision to turn to coal could possibly be squared with the urgent need to dramatically scale down fossil fuel use, Konstantinov replied: “It’s a bit ironic isn’t it?”

Activists march with flags and placards, during the march at Extinction Rebellion’s Nature Protest held in Central London about how nature is in crisis.

Loredana Sangiuliano | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

“If there was enough wind, it could maybe meet more than half or two-thirds of U.K. power demand on a relatively low power demand day. But instead what we are seeing is that actually we’ve got no wind and we are forced to fire up polluting coal-fired generation.”

“At first glance, that doesn’t tally up with the government’s ambition to decarbonize. But this is very much driven by the intermittent nature of renewables: both wind and solar,” he added.

The U.K. has committed to phasing out coal power completely by Oct. 2024 to cut carbon emissions.

“The fundamental drivers, i.e. high gas prices and high carbon prices, we at ICIS believe they are here to stay for the coming months,” Konstantinov said.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie, a global natural resources consultancy, also expect U.K. and European gas prices “to remain elevated at current levels throughout winter.”

“A recovery in UK gas production is critical for this winter,” they added. “And going forward, investment into domestic gas supply remains crucial to ensure a smooth energy transition to renewables and new technologies.”

Environment

YMX Logistics deploys 20 new Orange EV electric yard trucks

Published

8 hours ago

November 22, 2024

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YMX Logistics deploys 20 new Orange EV electric yard trucks

YMX Logistics and Orange EV Join Forces to Deliver Zero Emission Transportation Solutions to Yard Operations Across North America

Leading yard operation 3PL YMX Logistics has announced plans to deploy fully twenty (20) of Orange EV’s fully electric Class 8 terminal trucks at a number of distribution and manufacturing sites across North America.

As the shipping and logistics industries increasingly move to embrace electrification, yard operations have proven to be an almost ideal use case for EVs, enabling companies like Orange EV, which specialize in yard hostlers or terminal tractors, to drive real, impactful change. To that end, companies like YMX are partnering with Orange EV.

“This relationship between YMX and Orange EV is a significant step forward in transforming yard operations across North America,” said Matt Yearling, CEO of YMX Logistics. “Besides the initial benefits of reduction in emissions and carbon footprint, our customers are also seeing improvements in the overall operational efficiency and seeking to expand. Our team members have also been sharing positive feedback about their new equipment and highlighting the positive impact on their health and day-to-day activities.”

This Orange looks good in blue

YMX Logistics electric yard trucks; by Orange EV.

One of the most interesting aspects of this story – beyond the Orange EV HUSK-e XP’s almost unbelievable 180,000 lb. GCWR spec. – is that this isn’t a story about California’s ports, which mandate EVs. Instead, YMX is truly deploying these trucks throughout the country, with at least four currently in Chicago (and more on the way).

“Our collaboration with YMX Logistics represents a powerful stride in delivering sustainable yard solutions at scale for enterprise customers,” explains Wayne Mathisen, CEO of Orange EV. “With rising demand for electric yard trucks, our joint efforts ensure that more companies can access the environmental, financial, and operational benefits of electrification … this is a win for the planet, the workforce, and the bottom line of these organizations.”

We interviewed Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens on The Heavy Equipment Podcast a few months back, but if you’re not familiar with these purpose-built trucks, it’s worth a listen.

HEP-isode 26

SOURCE | IMAGES: YMX Logistics.

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Environment

Hyundai IONIQ 9 debut, new NACS Kia, solid state batteries from Honda

Published

9 hours ago

November 22, 2024

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Hyundai IONIQ 9 debut, new NACS Kia, solid state batteries from Honda

On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the all-new Hyundai IONIQ 9 and its “a “rolling living room” pivoting captain’s chairs, Kia gets a go-fast 7 passenger SUV and an updated EV6, while Honda announces plans to start producing solid-state batteries at its new facility in just a few weeks.

We’ve also got big news for American workers – a Minnesota power company is ditching coal for solar while ExxonMobil and LG Chem get to work extracting thousands of tons of lithium out of Tennessee’s soil.

Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations sitewide. Learn more by clicking here.

You can watch the episode, below.

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Environment

One of the US’s first solar peaker plants – with Tesla Megapacks – just came online

Published

11 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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One of the US’s first solar peaker plants – with Tesla Megapacks – just came online

Arevon Energy has kicked off operations at Vikings Solar-plus-Storage – one of the US’s first utility-scale solar peaker plants.

The $529 million project in Imperial County, California, near Holtville, features 157 megawatts of solar power paired with 150 megawatts/600 megawatt hours of battery storage.

Vikings Solar-plus-Storage is designed to take cheap daytime solar power and store it for use during more expensive peak demand times, like late afternoons and evenings. The battery storage system can quickly respond to changes in demand, helping tackle critical grid needs.

Vikings leverages provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that support affordable clean energy, strengthen grid resilience, boost US manufacturing, and create good jobs.

The Vikings project has already brought significant benefits to the local area. It employed over 170 people during construction, many local workers, and boosted nearby businesses like restaurants, hotels, and stores. On top of that, Vikings will pay out more than $17 million to local governments over its lifespan.

“Vikings’ advanced design sets the standard for safe and reliable solar-plus-storage configurations,” said Arevon CEO Kevin Smith. “The project incorporates solar panels, trackers, and batteries that showcase the growing strength of US renewable energy manufacturing.”

The project includes Tesla Megapack battery systems made in California, First Solar’s thin-film solar panels, and smart solar trackers from Nextracker. San Diego-based SOLV Energy handled the engineering, procurement, and construction work.

San Diego Community Power (SDCP) will buy the energy from the Vikings project under a long-term deal, helping power nearly 1 million customer accounts. SDCP and Arevon have also signed an agreement for the 200 MW Avocet Energy Storage Project in Carson, California, which will start construction in early 2025.

Vikings is named after the Holtville High School mascot, and Arevon is giving back to the local community by funding scholarships for deserving Holtville High students.

Arevon is a major renewable energy developer across the US and a key player in California, with nearly 2,500 MW in operation and more than 1,250 MW under construction.

If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*

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