This is a delicate time for Iran. President Raisi was the second most important man in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

His death, now confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences.

Although Khamenei has tried to reassure the country in recent hours, the regime will know this is a perilous moment that must be handled carefully.

Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash

There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.

In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.

Mokhber isn’t as close to the supreme leader as Raisi was, and won’t enjoy his standing, but he has run much of Khamenei’s finances for years and is credited with helping Iran evade some of the many sanctions levied on it.

Raisi’s successor will most likely be the chosen candidate of the supreme leader and certainly another ultra-conservative hardliner – a shift back to the moderates is highly unlikely.

Likewise, we shouldn’t expect any significant change in Iran’s foreign activities or involvement with the war in Gaza. It will be business as usual, as much as possible.

However, after years of anti-government demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, this might be a moment for the protest movement to rise up and take to the streets again.

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Islamic State may seek to take advantage

There are also many dissident groups inside Iran, including an off-shoot of Islamic State – they might seek to take advantage of this situation.

Raisi became president in 2021 at the second time of asking and only with a turnout of 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution.

He was not a universally popular figure and many inside Iran will celebrate his death.

Consequences for supreme leader

Longer term, Raisi’s death will have consequences for the supreme leader.

He was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei on his death – the other being Khamanei’s son Mojtaba.

For religious and conservative Iranians, Raisi’s death will be mourned; for many though, it will be the passing of a man who had blood on his hands.

Iranian protesters have expressed “joy” over the death of President Ebrahim Raisi who was dubbed the “Butcher of Tehran”.

Speaking to Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim, three Iranians spoke on the condition of anonymity over fears of being tracked down by the country’s regime.

A protest leader – who is currently in hiding – suggested Sunday’s crash, that also killed Iran’s foreign minister, was “pre-planned”.

“We may not be across everything, but it’s been a known fact for a long time that Raisi was a serious contender to replace the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and perhaps some didn’t want that to happen.

“But all in all, this was very good news.

“All I can say is that the only thing that has made me truly happy over the past five years has been the news of Raisi’s death.”

Mr Raisi’s time in charge included major protests over Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly.

The US said Mr Raisi had “blood on his hands” as the former hardline cleric was “a brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for nearly four decades”.

Iran also took the unprecedented decision in April to launch a drone and missile attack on Israel.

A 23-year-old student – who has taken part in a number of protests – said: “The death of Raisi has made the people of Iran very happy.

“On the streets, people were handing out sweets, they were smiling at each other.

“That’s the extent to which this news has spread joy amongst people.”

Read more:
Who was hardliner Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi?
‘Butcher of Tehran’ had fearsome reputation – many will fear instability

Raisi’s death may not mean immediate change for Iran

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

From the voices speaking out on The World with Yalda Hakim from inside Iran there was a sense of celebration on the eve of the funeral of their dead president but also a sense of realism.

One dead president the fall of a regime does not make. That is the bitter truth for those brave Iranians speaking out and the millions of Iranians they represent. They detest a man who presided over a brutal crackdown on protests that saw hundreds killed on the streets, and thousands incarcerated, tortured, raped or killed after their arbitrary arrest.

But there are reasons for Iranians to find some hope in the news of the president’s death.

Analysts have compared the Iranian theocratic Islamic regime to the Soviet Union in its dying days.

It is ideologically bankrupt. Its people do not believe in what it stands for anymore. It is morally bankrupt too, after the brutal repression that crushed the Women, Life and Freedom protests. But it remains powerful, with many people on its payroll and it is hard to predict how or when it falls.

Iran’s people want one thing though, and its government the opposite, and that ultimately is impossible to sustain.

Raisi had a unique skill set. He was both a zealous idealogue and an ex-judge. A man who understood how both Iran’s judiciary and presidency works. He combined a passionate belief in the Iranian revolution with an expertise in how its regime operated.

It has been said many times in the last 24 hours that Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, will find another hardliner to replace him. There are plenty more where he came from.

But no one with quite his skills and expertise. That may not be important immediately but at the moment of greatest danger in the not so distant future when Khamenei dies, it could make all the difference.

With no anointed successor, the supreme leader’s passing could usher in a period of instability and weakness for the regime. Raisi was seen as a potential successor but also a powerful stabilising force as president in that perilous hiatus, someone who could hold the ring while the new order is established and power struggles fought out.

Raisi’s death may well not mean immediate change for Iran but it could ultimately hasten its end.

A housewife, who was beaten up for taking parting in the “Woman, Life, Protest” movements, said: “The public hatred towards this regime is not a secret to anyone.

“Raisi’s death proved that the pain that this inflicted on our people will one day hit them back.

“My personal reaction to the death of Raisi… I was very happy.

“I’m not upset at all. Even though I never wish death on anyone, but this man, not only did he not do anything for our nation, but he ordered the death of countless young innocent people.”

Following news of Mr Raisi’s death, US State department spokesperson Matt Miller said the Iranian president “was involved in numerous horrific human rights abuses, including playing a key role in the extra judicial killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988”.

“Some of the worst human rights abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran,” he added.

The US approach to Iran “will not change” because of Mr Raisi’s death, Mr Miller said.

Joe Biden has said ‘what is happening in Gaza is not genocide’ following an arrest warrant request by the International Criminal Court prosecutor for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The US president branded the warrant request as “outrageous,” adding “whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas.”

“What’s happening in Gaza is not genocide. We reject that,” Mr Biden said at a Jewish American Heritage Month event at the White House.

He said American support for the safety and security of Israelis is “ironclad”.

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan KC has applied for arrest warrants to be issued for Israel’s prime minister and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar over alleged war crimes.

He is also seeking arrest warrants for Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant – and other top Hamas leaders Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri, more commonly known as Deif (commander-in-chief of the military wing of Hamas, known as the al Qassam Brigades), and Ismail Haniyeh (head of Hamas’s political bureau).

Mr Netanyahu said: “As prime minister of Israel, I reject with disgust the Hague prosecutor’s comparison between democratic Israel and the mass murderers of Hamas.

“With what audacity do you compare Hamas that murdered, burned, butchered, decapitated, raped and kidnapped our brothers and sisters and the IDF soldiers fighting a just war.

“No pressure and no decision in any international forum will prevent us from striking those who seek to destroy us.”

In a statement, Mr Khan outlined the reasons his office was applying for the arrest warrants.

“Now, more than ever, we must collectively demonstrate that international humanitarian law, the foundational baseline for human conduct during conflict, applies to all individuals and applies equally across the situations addressed by my office and the court,” he said.

“This is how we will prove, tangibly, that the lives of all human beings have equal value.”

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On the Hamas leaders, he said he has reasonable grounds to believe they “bear criminal responsibility” for “war crimes and crimes against humanity”.

He outlined a list of alleged crimes, including murder, taking hostages and rape and other acts of sexual violence.

“We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Israel by Hamas and other armed groups pursuant to organisational policies. Some of these crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day,” he said.

On Mr Netanyahu and his defence minister Mr Gallant, Mr Khan said he has reasonable grounds to believe they too “bear criminal responsibility” for “war crimes and crimes against humanity”.

He outlined a list of alleged crimes, including “starvation of civilians” and “intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population”.

“We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to state policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day,” he said.

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Benny Gantz, a former military chief and member of Israel’s war cabinet, harshly criticised Mr Khan’s announcement, saying Israel fights with “one of the strictest” moral codes and has a robust judiciary capable of investigating itself.

South Africa, which has been leading a genocide case against Israel, welcomed the news Mr Khan was seeking the arrest of Israeli and Hamas leaders.

“The law must be applied equally to all in order to uphold the international rule of law,” the office of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa said.