Florida prosecutors have repeatedly told a court that a key witness in their murder case against a former Miami Hurricanes football player accused in the 2006 killing of teammate Bryan Pata was dead.

However, with the long-delayed murder trial of Rashaun Jones only weeks from its scheduled start in Miami, ESPN reporters knocked on an apartment door in Louisville, Kentucky, recently and found the witness, Paul Conner, alive.

Conner told ESPN that he wasn’t aware anyone from Miami was looking for him and said he rarely leaves his apartment.

Prosecutors told Florida 11th Circuit Court Judge Cristina Miranda as recently as July that Conner was dead. A spokesperson for the state attorney’s office, Ed Griffith, told ESPN on Thursday that police relied on a public database that “seemed to indicate” Conner was deceased and that police asked officers in Louisville to knock on Conner’s door. He offered no documents of such a visit nor details of when an officer visited or what happened.

Griffith also pressed a reporter for the address ESPN visited — the same address that was listed on the database report Griffith cited. The lead detective in the case, Juan Segovia, also texted an ESPN reporter asking for Conner’s contact information.

It’s unclear how the revelation about Conner will affect the trial, currently set to start Oct. 6. “Is there an impact of that on the case? I would have to say yes, potentially,” Griffith said.

Jones’ attorney, Sara Alvarez, said ESPN’s finding raises further questions about the state’s case.

“I’m not shocked, but appalled,” she said by telephone Thursday. “This is a bigger issue. This is just blatant lies. Bald-faced lies.

“It’s a shame and it’s disgusting that you would be willing to send a man to prison for the rest of his life without any evidence and then not be honest about what evidence exists and doesn’t exist.”

In a conversation with an ESPN reporter and in questioning by police, Jones has said he did not kill Pata. He has pleaded not guilty.

Conner, a retired University of Miami writing instructor, once lived in the apartment complex where Pata, a likely high draft pick in the 2007 NFL draft, was shot once in the head in November 2006.

Conner contacted police soon after the shooting, saying he heard a “pop” and saw someone “jogging” away from the parking lot entrance near where Pata was shot. Conner picked Jones out of a photo lineup.

Some 13 years later, Conner was reinterviewed in 2020 and again picked Jones out of a lineup, according to Jones’ arrest warrant. And Conner recounted what he saw at a 2022 bond hearing and in a 2023 deposition with attorneys.

Conner, now 81, told ESPN in his Aug. 25 interview that he now doesn’t recall what happened in Miami, and he seemed unfamiliar with his prior statements.

“I’m getting up in years,” he said. “My memory comes and goes. How long ago was this court case?”

With Jones’ trial date looming, Miami assistant state attorney Cristina Diamond told Miranda in a July 17 hearing that officials believed Conner to be dead after multiple failed attempts to contact him and a third-party commercial database indicating he was deceased. Miranda accepted the efforts to find Conner and ruled to allow his prior testimony from the hearing and deposition to be used at trial. Jones’ attorneys had initially objected on grounds of their inability to cross-examine his statements but conceded to accept the state’s evidence during that hearing.

ESPN’s interview with Conner was actually the second confirmation that he was alive. After a reporter contacted Conner’s last known employer, a former colleague asked Louisville police to conduct a welfare check. On July 22, Conner answered and confirmed his identity, according to police bodycam images reviewed by ESPN.

The Miami-Dade Police Department’s inability to find Conner is the latest in a long string of official missteps that have dramatically prolonged the case and frustrated Pata’s still-grieving family. According to information obtained by ESPN through a lawsuit against Miami-Dade Police and other interviews and records, Jones was among the first suspects considered by police, but they didn’t arrest him until 2021, nine months after ESPN first published its findings. Jones, now 40, has remained in custody for the past four years amid court delays and changes in attorneys on both sides.

In March 2022, Miranda agreed to grant Jones an $850,000 bail and allow him out, pending trial; however, Jones has not paid the amount — typically 10%, or $85,000 — needed for release, sources told ESPN.

That bond hearing included in-person testimony from Conner. Police had no eyewitness to the shooting, so Conner was a key element to a case that relies heavily on testimony from friends and teammates that Jones and Pata fought verbally and physically before the killing and that Jones possessed a gun similar to the one likely used to kill Pata (although police never recovered the weapon).

Conner told the court he was walking to the Colony Apartment Complex, where he and Pata lived, just before 7 p.m. on Nov. 7, 2006. He was near the parking lot entrance when he heard a “loud bang.” About 15 to 20 seconds later, Conner testified, he came “face-to-face” with a man walking at a brisk pace. “He smiled at me. He had a clean set of white teeth,” Conner said. “I described him to the forensic artist.”

On the photo lineup from which Conner picked out Jones’ photo, Conner had put his signature, date and the phrase “90 percent,” and a defense attorney asked him what that meant.

“One of the detectives asked me, how sure I was that that was the defendant. And I answered 90%,” he said.

The attorney later asks, “So, if I understand you correctly, there is a 10% error in your calculation of whether or not this person is the person that you saw on that night?” to which Conner responds, “It could have been.”

The defense attorney also noted that when Conner, several years later, picked Jones out of a lineup, Jones’ picture was in the same location on a page as the first time — the top middle photo.

In building their case against Jones, prosecutors also have cited Jones’ actions that night, including his failure to attend a mandatory team meeting called after the shooting and efforts to borrow money to leave the area. They also cite cell phone records they say contradict where Jones told officers he had been.

According to a state motion filed July 8 to request the use of Conner’s prior testimony, Det. Segovia said he had been in touch with the FBI and local police in Ohio, where Conner last worked at the University of Toledo. Segovia said he learned that Conner had moved to Kentucky.

Segovia then reached out to the Louisville Police Department, and according to the motion, “contact was made with the leasing office of that address, and they indicated that Mr. Conner did not live there.” Records show prosecutors were planning to subpoena a homicide detective from Louisville. No such officer has testified in the case.

ESPN requested records from the Louisville Police Department and connected with a spokesperson multiple times to inquire about any efforts made to locate Conner and any efforts by the officer who had been subpoenaed to testify. The spokesperson there said there were no records of any officer going to Conner’s address until the welfare check requested by the university colleague and ESPN’s inquiries. Conner said he has lived at his Louisville address for about a couple of years. A family member said they knew of no reason the leasing office would say Conner didn’t live there. A call to the leasing office was not returned.

ESPN made multiple requests to police and the Miami-Dade State Attorney for records of their efforts to find Conner. After initially claiming they had no documents, they eventually provided an email exchange in which Segovia wrote that he left 15 voicemail messages with Conner since May. Segovia added that he also sent emails to an address that officers had used with him previously. They also provided a copy of a June 6 letter addressed to Conner at his Louisville address that asked him to contact their office.

During ESPN’s visit, Conner allowed a reporter to review his phone. There were dozens of unanswered calls, and he appeared unfamiliar with how to check his voicemail. Several calls came from Miami-area phone numbers, including at least one that matched a phone number for Segovia. At a prior hearing, prosecutors said they had been aware Conner struggled with “technology” and had been difficult to reach.

Miami-Dade officials and the judge did not have a death certificate, mortuary record, obituary or any other official record of death, but instead relied on a commercial third-party information provider. Such companies often provide factual background information, but their terms of use disclose that information might contain errors, and they do not guarantee accuracy.

Conner’s cousin Steve Fahey, who said he was familiar with Conner’s prior role in the case, said he sees Conner frequently. He told ESPN in a phone interview that Conner has struggled lately with memory issues. He said Conner never mentioned anyone from Miami trying to reach him, and Fahey said no one from Miami tried to contact him, either.

Miami-Dade officials noted they spoke to a “distant cousin” of Conner’s who they said was unaware of Conner’s whereabouts, but they did not name the individual.

Alvarez, Jones’ attorney, said she should be able to question Conner in front of a jury about what she said were contradictions in details he gave police at various times. Whether Conner testifies, Alvarez said she plans to question Segovia about what she calls lies and misrepresentations of evidence.

Among other issues affecting the case recently, police told the court this summer that they had lost Pata’s student judicial records from the University of Miami. Pata had been involved in — although sometimes as just a bystander — a few misdemeanor-level altercations, according to the records, which ESPN acquired years ago through a public records request.

During a July 9 hearing, Jones’ attorney asked for a copy of an unredacted “lead sheet,” which was a four-page document with all the leads officers were looking into and a list of 39 individuals. The Miami-Dade Police Department used the lead sheet in the public records litigation with ESPN to assert the case was still active.

But during the hearing, the two main detectives who had worked the case said they didn’t know where the lead sheet was, and Segovia said it likely was discarded.

Florida law governs what documents agencies may destroy and which must be kept. Part of the statute applies to “summary information on … suspects or accomplices in crimes” and says records in that category must be retained “until obsolete, superseded, or administrative value is lost.”

Officials have not provided a reason as to why Jones wasn’t arrested until 2021, other than to say the case got a “fresh set of eyes” after Segovia was assigned as lead detective in 2020. That was around the time ESPN sued the Miami-Dade Police Department over the redacted investigative file. The last dated entry in the police report before the arrest was from 2010.

In a deposition last year, Segovia testified that police did not uncover any new evidence in the ensuing years that gave them probable cause to arrest Jones in 2021. “It was there all along,” Segovia said, but in 2007, the state attorney did not believe the case was strong enough to make an arrest.

In testimony during the records lawsuit hearings, law enforcement officials argued that they had a prime suspect and that there could be an arrest “in the foreseeable future,” which they said justified that the case was still active and its records not subject to disclosure; under Florida law, records from closed or adjudicated cases are subject to release.

In a pretrial hearing July 11, ASA Diamond offered a plea agreement to Jones of 18 years with credit for time served, but Jones — who attended the hearing via video conference — and his attorney rejected the offer.

In Florida, a conviction for second-degree murder could carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

ESPN’s original investigation into the case revealed a multitude of leads that police pursued, including a dispute Pata had over stolen car wheels, an angry ex-girlfriend, a nightclub fight involving possible gang members and two alleged jailhouse confessions. Nothing came of the tips.

The investigation also found multiple inconsistencies in police statements, leads that weren’t pursued to the end and people connected to Pata who were never interviewed.

Pata’s family members have, over the years, expressed frustration and disappointment in what they see as a lack of interest and effort by police.

Leading up to the trial, Edwin Pata, Bryan’s brother, said they were ready to finally see Jones on trial.

“It’s good that we’re actually going to put it behind us,” he said. “It’s constantly on our minds … we just got to be ready for it and know what to expect and be able to handle it.”

ESPN producers Scott Frankel and Gus Navarro contributed to this report.

It’s official. Three teams have clinched playoff spots, meaning there are nine left to fill with 11 days remaining in the 2025 regular season.

For the second consecutive year, the Brewers clinched the season’s first postseason spot. They were followed by the Phillies, who first clinched a berth and won the National League East title for the second straight year the following night, and then the Cubs.

Now, we wait to see who’s next.

It’s just a matter of time before additional clubs lock up berths — such as the Blue Jays and Dodgers — but others still have a lot to play for. In the past week, we’ve seen the Mariners go on a run that has vaulted them back into first place in the division, while the Mets suffered a losing streak that almost dropped them out of the playoff picture entirely.

Some of these playoff races will go down to the final days of the season. Get ready for some exciting baseball!

Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 93-59
Previous ranking: 1

The Brewers were the first team to clinch a postseason slot this season, but they have no time to rest on their laurels. Topping the remaining to-do list is the quest to hold off the Phillies for the NL’s top seed, which could be key if the teams meet in the NLCS given how dominant they’ve both been at home. If Milwaukee does that, it’ll also tick off its other major remaining items: breaking the franchise mark for wins in a season (96, set in 2011 and tied in 2018) and clinching the NL Central title over the pesky Cubs. — Doolittle

Record: 91-62
Previous ranking: 2

The Phillies clinched their second straight NL East title with a 10-inning win at Dodger Stadium on Monday. Kyle Schwarber hit his 53rd home run and Harrison Bader stole third base in the 10th, setting up the go-ahead sacrifice fly. That led to a raucous postgame celebration. Bryce Harper drank apple juice while his teammates had some stronger refreshments. Then they rallied for another dramatic win on Tuesday as backup catcher Rafael Marchan hit a two-out, three-run home run in the ninth following an intentional walk to Bryson Stott. The Phillies look ready for October. — Schoenfield

Record: 89-63
Previous ranking: 5

Toronto’s chances of winning the American League East stand at an overwhelming 95.6%, per FanGraphs, leaving manager John Schneider to deliberate over how to arrange his playoff rotation. Kevin Gausman seems to be the most logical choice to start in Game 1, and after that, Schneider has a wealth of options: Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Eric Lauer and now rookie Trey Yesavage, who was dominant in his MLB debut on Monday. Other teams should be jealous of the Jays’ depth. — Olney

Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 3

It’s easy to focus on what Shohei Ohtani is doing in the regular season and what role he might fill in the playoffs. But the Dodgers have the serious business of winning the NL West again to still take care of. The stakes are huge. Barring collapses elsewhere in the circuit, the winner of the West is going to be a 3-seed and the second-place team is going to be No. 5. Thus the Dodgers will either get to host the struggling Mets (probably), or they’ll find themselves playing the first round at Wrigley Field against a hungry Cubs team that has been playing well. — Doolittle

Record: 88-64
Previous ranking: 7

The Cubs aren’t out of the NL Central race just yet, but even if that pursuit comes up short, they are in solid position to be the league’s top wild card — and secured a playoff berth Wednesday with a win over Pittsburgh. The offense has been ticking up a little over the past couple of weeks, though the improvement hasn’t included first-half standout Pete Crow-Armstrong. He has been better than he was in August, but given his .446 OPS that month, the bar was low. Overall, his second-half OPS sits at .625. When the Cubs were roiling the scoreboard earlier this season, it was PCA leading the charge. North Siders would feel a lot better about the coming postseason if he is able to heat up over the last few days of the season. — Doolittle

Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 4

The Tigers’ rotation struggles behind Tarik Skubal have been a little surprising, given the veterans on the roster. But that doesn’t mean manager A.J. Hinch will be without weapons in the playoffs. “You know how A.J. is — he’s going to mix and match from game to game,” said one evaluator. And the Tigers have developed or acquired a lot of bullpen options, including Troy Melton, Jose Urquidy (who pitched 1⅓ innings Sunday) and, they hope, Kyle Finnegan and Paul Sewald, who are working their way back from injury and are expected back soon. — Olney

Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 6

Jose Caballero had started six consecutive games at shortstop for the Yankees before Anthony Volpe started Tuesday’s game, notching two hits. It appears there is effectively an open competition at the position: Whoever plays better will play. With Volpe eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and with prospect George Lombard climbing (and thriving) through the farm system, it’s unclear who the Yankees’ shortstop will be in 2026. — Olney

Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 12

You may have heard that Cal Raleigh is having quite the season. He hit his 55th and 56th home runs in the same game Tuesday, passing Mickey Mantle for the most home runs in a season by a switch-hitter and tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s club record with No. 56. Suddenly, Aaron Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs is back in play if Raleigh can mount a furious finish.

Oh, and the win in Kansas City, which has been a house of horrors for Seattle in recent seasons, was also the Mariners’ 10th in a row. Dominic Canzone went 5-for-5 with three home runs in the same game, becoming the fourth player in 2025 to reach those totals and just the 45th player to do it in the majors since 1901. (No player has done it twice.) The only other Mariner to do it was Mickey Brantley in 1987. (Mike Cameron didn’t have five hits in his four-homer game.) — Schoenfield

Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 9

Will the Padres’ vaunted bullpen hold up over the stretch run and into the playoffs? Their rotation has been hit or miss for a month now, which only increases the load for a stacked bullpen fortified by the trade deadline acquisition of Mason Miller. Miller has been phenomenal as a Padre and it’s a good thing, since Jason Adam went down with an injury, Jeremiah Estrada has had a rough month in the gopher ball department and Adrian Morejon has struggled in September. Can the unit that so many viewed as the Padres’ October trump card regain its menace? — Doolittle

Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 8

When the Red Sox took the first three games of a four-game series against the Yankees in late August, New York manager Aaron Boone was asked how Boston had improved during the season. “Roman Anthony is pretty good,” he replied, noting the difference the lefty-hitting rookie made. Since Anthony has been out of the lineup with an oblique injury, Boston is now feeling his absence in a significant way. In 35 games before he got hurt, he had a .326 average, and the Red Sox were 22-13. Since his injury, the Red Sox have gone 5-7, averaging less than 4.0 runs per game. — Olney

Record: 84-69
Previous ranking: 10

Just when you thought the injury list couldn’t get any longer for the Astros, Yordan Alvarez sprained his ankle while scoring a run in Monday’s win over the Rangers and will miss significant time. Alvarez had returned three weeks ago after missing 100 games with a broken bone in his hand. Rookie Zach Cole, playing just his fourth MLB game, replaced Alvarez in the lineup and hit the go-ahead home run, then added an RBI single. The Astros beat the Rangers again Tuesday as they held on for a 6-5 win after leading 6-0. Houston’s crucial week of AL West action will continue when the Mariners come to town for the battle for first place. — Schoenfield

Record: 79-74
Previous ranking: 13

The Rangers got to within two games of first place in the division after winning the first two games against the Mets over the weekend to extend their winning streak to six in a row. It looked like the seventh consecutive win was in reach after the Rangers scored twice to force extra innings in Sunday’s game, but they couldn’t score in the top of the 10th and rookie Luis Curvelo served up the walk-off home run to Pete Alonso. Two losses to the Astros followed and the Rangers fell behind Cleveland in the wild-card standings. They might have to go 6-0 on this upcoming homestand against the Marlins and Twins to even have a chance at the postseason. — Schoenfield

Record: 78-74
Previous ranking: 11

The wild, topsy-turvy, frustrating, unpredictable year continues for the Mets as they desperately try to hang on to the final wild card. They lost eight in a row before Pete Alonso perhaps rescued the season with his 10th-inning walk-off home run to beat the Rangers on Sunday. An eight-run outburst against Padres starter Michael King followed in New York’s next game. If the Mets are to hang on, the rookie starting pitcher trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will play a huge role. McLean continues to take over as the rotation ace while Sproat’s second career start was a beauty — six scoreless innings against the Rangers. — Schoenfield

Record: 80-71
Previous ranking: 15

You really can’t apply logic to what’s going on with the Guardians these days, but here’s what’s left on the table for them as they try to press Boston for the last wild-card berth in the AL: four games in a weekend series in Minnesota, including a doubleheader Saturday, followed by six home games next week against the Tigers and Rangers. Keep in mind that Detroit is likely to be focused on preparing its rotation for the postseason, so Cleveland won’t see a full dose of Tarik Skubal, in all likelihood. — Olney

Record: 77-76
Previous ranking: 19

Arizona’s playoff odds dropped precariously close to zero near the end of August. Given the Diamondbacks’ deadline-related activity, which included trading a corner infield combo (Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez) who combined for 47 homers and 146 RBIs before being dealt, that was no surprise. What’s happened since is Arizona has climbed back to the outer perimeter of the wild-card race. How? The sagging Mets, a red-hot offense and the amazing Geraldo Perdomo, for whom you can make a solid case as the NL’s No. 2 pick on the MVP ballot behind Shohei Ohtani. — Doolittle

Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 14

A tough series at Arizona probably sapped the Giants’ second-wind playoff chase, though all is not yet technically lost. But even if the postseason is out, Giants fans can focus on powerhouse Bryce Eldridge, summoned in mid-September for his big league debut. Eldridge began the season at Double-A and later moved up to Triple-A, where his results were a mixed bag. But the Giants had a need at first base and so took a chance that Eldridge — listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds — is ready to make some McCovey Cove splashes at age 20. — Doolittle

Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 17

For now, Reds fans can continue to fixate on the wild-card standings. That’s more to the largesse of the Mets — who stubbornly refuse to put a hammerlock on the NL’s 6-seed — than anything Cincinnati has done. But the standings are what they are, and if the Reds catch fire, they might yet play some October baseball in Terry Francona’s first season managing the club. Their remaining schedule is tough, though: four home games against the Cubs, a possible breather against Pittsburgh, then three games in Milwaukee, owner of baseball’s best record. — Doolittle

Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 16

Though their chances of making the playoffs are all but zero, the Royals are still playing meaningful baseball, which is surprising given the volume of injuries they have sustained with their rotation this year. But here they are. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez has reached a couple of major benchmarks, mashing his 300th career homer (he’s now at 302) and notching his 1,000th career RBI (now 1,008). As former teammate Eric Hosmer wrote on Twitter: “HOFer on and off [the field]. If you disagree meet me in the octagon.” — Olney

Record: 74-78
Previous ranking: 18

Barring a binge of wins down the stretch, the Rays are not going to reach the playoffs this year, but they have a superstar in the making in third baseman Junior Caminero, who will likely get some top-10 MVP votes. Since the All-Star break, Caminero has clubbed 21 homers with 48 RBIs and an 0.919 OPS in 55 games. — Olney

Record: 74-79
Previous ranking: 20

To be frank, the Cardinals haven’t given their fans many reasons to remain engaged until the end of the season. Their playoff chances are spent and, as they play out the string, the September call-ups don’t involve elite prospects. Maybe the focus will be on the rumor mill with an eye toward what will happen when this ho-hum campaign finally draws to a close. We know that baseball operations chief John Mozeliak will be handing the baton to Chaim Bloom. What other changes may be in store? — Doolittle

Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 23

What more can Nick Kurtz do in his rookie season? How about blasting a titanic 493-foot grand slam Saturday that soared over the batter’s eye in center field at Sutter Health Park. It was the longest home run in the majors this season, the longest by an A’s hitter in the Statcast era (since 2015) and the longest grand slam in the Statcast era. Kurtz has slowed down a bit in September, but his OPS continues to hover just above 1.000, trailing only Aaron Judge and neck and neck with Shohei Ohtani. — Schoenfield

Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 21

Baltimore was eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday, a quiet ending to a season that began with such lofty expectations, following seasons of 101 and 91 wins in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Orioles’ greatest challenge this winter will be to build a pitching staff behind Trevor Rogers with the likes of Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and perhaps Grayson Rodriguez. They have a number of arbitration-eligible players, but not a single starter or reliever under contract for 2026, 2027 or beyond. Money talks. — Olney

Record: 70-83
Previous ranking: 22

Matt Olson homered in four straight games and has been red-hot in September, hitting well over .300 with an OPS over 1.200. He quietly has had a terrific season, leading the NL in doubles (tied with Freddie Freeman), and he has a chance to get to both 100 runs and 100 RBIs for the third time in his career. His 6.2 WAR is fourth among NL position players. No, it’s not 2023, when he led the NL in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage, but he has a good case as the best first baseman in the majors in 2025. — Schoenfield

Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 24

One thing to look forward to in 2026: Sandy Alcantara has looked much more like the pitcher he was before his Tommy John surgery, with a 3.09 ERA over his past 10 starts and 2.48 over his past six. While his 5.53 season ERA is still high, his OPS allowed is 0.712, not much higher than it was in 2023 (0.693). No, those aren’t anything close to his Cy Young numbers of 2022, but hopefully he can provide a stabilizing force next season to a rotation that has struggled overall with injuries and inconsistency and ranks 28th in ERA. — Schoenfield

Record: 66-86
Previous ranking: 26

By season’s end, Byron Buxton is likely to surpass career highs in plate appearances, hits, home runs and RBIs, among other categories. For years, he has been viewed through the prism of potential — what he might accomplish if not for the many injuries he has incurred in his career. Buxton has mostly stayed on the field this year and has likely set himself up for some top-10 votes on the AL MVP ballot. — Olney

Record: 69-83
Previous ranking: 25

The Angels’ woes continue as Seattle’s four-game sweep put them into last place behind the A’s. While they won’t reach last year’s franchise record 99 losses, they’ve locked in a 10th straight losing season. On the bright side, Jo Adell continues to mash home runs and is up to 36 on the season, although his overall value remains just 1.5 WAR due to a low OBP and subpar defensive metrics. (It hasn’t helped that the Angels have played him regularly in center field, a position he shouldn’t be playing.) Still, it’s been a nice season for the former top prospect, who entered 2025 with a career OPS+ of 79 spread across five seasons. — Schoenfield

Record: 65-88
Previous ranking: 27

Can Paul Skenes get his ERA back under 2.00 before the end of the season? His last outing (three runs and seven hits allowed over 3⅔ innings) was his poorest of the season, raising his ERA to 2.03. Pirates manager Don Kelly said that the outing would be Skenes’ last home start, and it’s up in the air whether he’ll get one or two more turns since Kelly has been using a six-man rotation. Let’s hope it’s two because Skenes Day is really all Pirates fans have to look forward to at this point. If he gets back under 2.00, he would become just the fifth pitcher to finish with a 1-something ERA over at least 100 innings in each of his first two seasons. — Doolittle

Record: 57-96
Previous ranking: 29

It’s possible — but unlikely — that the White Sox will avoid 100 losses; they would have to win six of their final 10 games in order to make that happen. Either way, it’s been a season of laying foundational pieces, none more important than shortstop Colson Montgomery, who hit 18 homers in his first 61 games in the majors (and counting). One of the challenges for the 23-year-old lefty-hitting shortstop is going to be performing better against left-handed pitching — he’s 11-for-62 (.177) against lefties with four walks. — Olney

Record: 62-91
Previous ranking: 28

The Nationals are going to need a complete overhaul in the offseason as they inch closer to 100 losses. Even James Wood and MacKenzie Gore have struggled in the second half. With 209 strikeouts, Wood has a shot to break Mark Reynolds’ MLB record of 223 set in 2009. The rotation ERA has increased from 4.77 in the first half to 5.92 in the second as Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have seen their season ERAs creep closer to 6.00. Parker has an 8.26 ERA since the beginning of August and has allowed at least one home run in nine consecutive starts. Irvin has a 7.78 ERA since late June. They shouldn’t be in the rotation, but the Nationals don’t have any other options. — Schoenfield

Record: 41-111
Previous ranking: 30

What should Rockies fans watch the rest of the way? The one-word answer: Broncos. But that’s too easy. So here’s this: One thing that is remarkable about this team is that it has drawn nearly 30,000 fans per game this season. That works out to around 55,000 per win in the overall standings. During their first two seasons in MLB, playing at Mile High Stadium, the expansion Rockies drew around 63,000 fans per win. If the Rockies can lose out while drawing an average of 45,000 fans during their remaining home games, they can just eke over the 60,000 fans-per-win mark for the first time since those expansion years. Then we can all rejoice. — Doolittle

A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers gunning for the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have also locked up their division title, and the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays are pretty much playoff locks with leads in their divisions, as well.

Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?

We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.

Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings

Who’s in?

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies clinched a spot in October on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.

Who can clinch a playoff spot next?

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to clinch their playoff spots this week. The Tigers, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason, as well.

What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?

American League

Wild-card round: (6) Red Sox at (3) Astros, (5) Mariners at (4) Yankees

ALDS: Red Sox/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Mariners/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays

National League

Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs

NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers

Breaking down the AL race

The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from each other in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Breaking down the NL race

The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Game of the day

Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:

Playoff schedule

Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium

Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*

Division series
Best of five

ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*

NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*

League championship series
Best of seven

ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*

NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*

World Series
Best of seven

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*

* If necessary