Hydrogen Demand: And Now The Contentious Disappointments
In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.
Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.
Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2
This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.
That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.
His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.
On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.
Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.
Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.
Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons
Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.
Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author
Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.
Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.
Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.
Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author
And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.
The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?
Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.
As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.
Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons
And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.
There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.
No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.
My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.
And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.
Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.
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Renault has released more information about its upcoming Renault 5 Turbo 3E electric rally car, and boy howdy, does it look hot as hell.
For background: auto enthusiasts look very fondly on the rally scene in the 1980s, when there was a serious arms race between auto manufacturers (particularly European ones) to make wilder and wilder race cars.
One of the most famous cars from that time period was the Renault 5 Turbo, with its iconic boxy design and chunky rear fenders which stood out even against other boxy cars of that age. It was based on the old Renault 5 hatchback, which recently got an electric rebirth of its own.
Calling on that history, Renault first showed off a 5 Turbo-inspired drift car concept back in 2022, but it was very clearly a concept – it didn’t really have an interior, for one.
Then, this last December, Renault came back and said no, really, we’re serious – we want to make this thing, and we want to put 540hp of electric power in it. At that time, it was just renders, but now Renault has a real prototype, and is putting plans in writing as to how it’s going to bring this crazy concept to market.
Today Renault unveiled what it’s calling “the first electric mini-supercar,” with lots of extra details on what looks like eye-watering performance in an actual sporty package (unlike so many of the giant electric SUVs we keep seeing these days…).
The biggest headline specs are these: 540hp (400kW), 3,196lbs (1,450kg), 160 inches (4,080mm) long, with a 0-60 time of <3.5 seconds and a top speed of 168mph (270km/h).
Heck. Yeah.
The power is delivered by dual motors – but rather than putting them inboard on the front and rear axles, like so many EVs do, the Renault 5 Turbo 3E uses in-wheel motors, with one in each rear wheel. So this thing is rear-wheel drive, just like the original 5 Turbo.
But unlike the original 5 Turbo, which topped out at around 163 lbft (220Nm) of torque (and only after you got it up to 3,250rpm first), Renault claims the 5 Turbo 3E’s motors are capable of an absurd 3,500lbft (4,800Nm) of torque (though that number is measured at the wheels, not at the driveshaft… because it doesn’t have a driveshaft, since it’s using in-wheel motors. So it’s not really directly comparable to other vehicles’ torque numbers).
All that torque on the rear wheels means one thing: this car will surely go sideways at will. But to make that job even easier, Renault offers a truly silly giant handbrake right smack in the middle of the car’s two front (and only) seats.
And if that wild dash and seat design doesn’t do it for you – Renault says it will offer basically unlimited customization to its customers.
Along with a long list of personalization options, many of which are inspired by famous versions of the original Renault 5 Turbo, Renault designers will help customers put together these options to make each vehicle unique.
But despite all this excitement, there’s one (or, more than a hundred thousand) big downsides: it’s not gonna be cheap. While Renault hasn’t listed a price yet, rumor is that it will start firmly in the six figure range, and potentially go up to around 200,000 (Dollars, Euros or Pounds – take your pick), depending on which personalizations you select.
But even more disappointingly: there’s no good reason for us to quote that price in dollars, because like every other fun thing it’s not coming to the US. Renault plans to offer it in “several key markets including Europe, the Middle East, Japan and Australia.”
And the last caveat: even with the money, it might be hard to get your hands on one of these. Renault will only sell 1,980 examples, referring back to the year that the original 5 Turbo was introduced. So, better get chummy with your local Renault rep, cause we can’t imagine those will last long.
Electrek’s Take
In a world where EVs (and cars in general) seem to just be getting bigger and bigger, heavier and heavier, this one is finally putting us back in the right direction.
Now, of course, it’s still quite a lot heavier (+~1,000lbs) than the 1980s version, and longer too (+~16 inches). Part of this is due to changing consumer tastes, part of it is due to stricter safety standards, and part of it is because companies aren’t pushing the envelope as hard as they were in the time of Group B rally cars. And then of course there’s the battery – a chonky 70kWh for ~250mi (~400km) of range, per WLTP standards (it will also have 350kW, 800V charging, taking 15 minutes to go from 15-80%).
But it’s also one of the first times we’ve seen an actual date associated with what looks like a truly violent electric hot hatch. Renault actually put out, in writing, that they plan to get this car to road in 2027 – unlike the Mercedes EQA concept, which turned into a freaking SUV; or the Golf GTI, which we’ve heard nothing about since 2023; or the Rally-inspired Rivian R3X, which looks awesome but we’ll have to wait until after the R2 comes out first.
There are some other extant cars that you might consider an electric hot hatch – like the Ioniq 5N – but that’s more than two feet longer and ~1,600lbs heavier than the 5 Turbo 3E claims it will be, so they’re really not in the same class at all. Closer to the same class is the Volvo EX30, at 7 inches longer, ~800lbs heavier, and ~120 less horsepower. Then there are the similarly-sized Mini Cooper SE, and even-smaller Fiat 500e Abarth, but both of those pack less than a third as much horsepower at comparable weights to the Renault.
So, with the specs we’ve seen, it’s in a class of its own – at least on paper, and at least for now. Your turn, Rivian – and the rest of the industry, too. Renault looks like they’re throwing down a gauntlet and showing us what can be done, but let’s stop seeing cancelled concepts and limited-edition prestige cars, and get some more fun, small, powerful EVs – and some of us would love to see them outside of Europe, too.
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EV drivers in the Borough of Camden in London will soon see a major boost in sidewalk chargers, thanks to a new partnership between Camden Council and Scottish charge point company Trojan Energy.
The council awarded Trojan Energy a contract to install over 570 on-street Level 2 EV chargers by 2026. The project kicks off with an initial rollout of 70 chargers in July 2025, with the rest coming as suitable locations are identified. This expansion builds on a successful trial from 2022, which received positive responses from local EV owners.
Trojan’s 22 kW chargers have a clever design—they sit “flat and flush” with sidewalks, meaning no bulky units cluttering up the pavement. Residents without driveways can easily “plug and play” using personal adapters, connecting their EVs to points linked via underground cables to a nearby cabinet. The chargers are grouped in clusters, increasing availability and convenience for drivers. Trojan launched an app last month that enables drivers to find chargers, check availability, and check charging history.
The sidewalk EV chargers won’t just help individual EV owners in the London borough; it’ll also support car-sharing programs, helping Camden reduce unnecessary car ownership and encourage more people to walk, bike, or take transit. Funding for the project comes from the UK government’s On-street Residential Chargepoint Scheme (ORCS).
Councillor Adam Harrison, cabinet member for Planning and a Sustainable Camden (pictured above left) said, “By promoting active travel such as walking and cycling and facilitating this shift to electric vehicles with convenient charging points, we hope to improve air quality, reduce emissions, and support environmental resilience across the borough.”
Read more: New York awards $60M to Revel to install 267 DC fast chargers
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The Xpeng G6 all-electric SUV has received a raft of 81 updates for the 2025 model year – and chief among these is a new, “bulletproof,” ultra-fast 5C charging “A.I. battery” that can go from 10 to 80% charge in just twelve minutes.
Sized and priced to put the best-selling Tesla Model Y firmly in its crosshairs, the Xpeng G6 SUV has been substantially upgraded for 2025 with three trim levels starting at “just” 176,800 yuan ($27,620, as I type this). Meaning that, despite the improved range, ADAS offerings, and charging speed, the 2025 model’s starting price is nearly 11% lower than last year’s already popular model.
For that money, G6 buyers will get the Xpeng-developed Turing AI intelligent driving system – an advanced ADAS system powered by the company’s 40-core “Turing chip” processor that promises to deliver the power of three high-performance chips in one.
The Turing chip is the basis for Xpeng’s Canghai neural network, which the company claims will eventually support full-scale L4 autonomous driving with enhanced safety features that have 33x the bandwidth, and 12x faster camera image processing than its main competitors, creating a foundation for full-scenario AI-enabled driving experiences that probably won’t smash your car into a Wile E. Coyote-style mural.
Turing AI launch
The newsworthy specs don’t stop there, however. The new 2025 Xpeng G6 also offers the company’s new “bulletproof” 5C AI batteries.
For those of you not in the know, the “5C” there refers to “five cycles,” and basically means that the battery can go from 10 to 80% full five times in an hour. 60 minutes in an hour, 12 minutes to go from 10-80%, that’s 1/5th of an hour, so it’s 5 cycles … or: 5C. A 6C battery would do the trick in 10 minutes, a 4C in 15, etc.
As for what makes the Xpeng AI batteries “bulletproof,” the company claims the battery is wrapped in a sort of armor that can withstand more than 1,000 degrees C of heat, up to 80 tons of collision force in a side-impact scenario, and more than 2000 joules of impact from the bottom.
2025 Xpeng G6 available models
- 625 Long-range Max Technology Edition: 176,800 yuan (~ $24,400)
- 625 Long-range Max Ultimate Edition: 186,800 yuan (~ $25,800)
- 725 Ultra-long-range Max Ultimate Edition: 198,800 yuan (~ $27,500)
The 625 models get 625 km of range on the CLTC (China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle), which translates to about 275 miles of EPA range. The 725 model adds another 100 km (60 miles) of range. The AI batteries in all three models go from 3C to 5C charging speed and ship with the Turing AI self-driving system as standard equipment.
Other upgrades for 2025 include a 9-inch streaming rearview mirror, updates to the soft-touch rubber and plastic materials in the cabin, and Xpeng’s new “cloud-sense” seats that support heat, ventilation, and (up front) even massage.
Two new body colors have also been added to the G6′ pallette: Starry Purple and Cloud Beige (shown, below), bring the total of available colors to six.
Xpeng went to Weibo to announce that it took the redesigned 2025 G6 just seven minutes to log 5,000 firm orders, on its first day of availability.
Electrek’s Take
I don’t always agree with Ford CEO Chris Jim Farley, but he’s absolutely right about Chinese EVs setting the standard for range, performance, and technology. It seems like every new EV that emerges from China’s tech-forward car brands makes EVs from Ford and Tesla look the level-three generic offerings from whatever the automotive equivalent of Dollar Tree is.
The only problem with that analogy is that the American offerings often cost consumers twice as much. And, before you jump into the comments and write about government subsidies and federalized healthcare costs and other supposed Chinese advantages – remember that we could do those things, too, if we wanted.
What would our excuse be then?
SOURCE | IMAGES: Xpeng, via CarNewsChina; CNEVPost.
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