Hydrogen Demand: And Now The Contentious Disappointments
In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.
Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.
Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2
This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.
That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.
His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.
On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.
Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.
Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.
Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons
Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.
Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author
Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.
Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.
Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.
Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author
And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.
The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?
Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.
As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.
Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons
And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.
There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.
No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.
My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.
And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.
Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.
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With its sleek, uncluttered styling and more than 100 miles of battery-electric range before the extended range electric sedan’s gas engine kicks on, maybe the new Nissan N6 really should have been the next Maxima!
Struggling Japanese carmaker Nissan is dealing with an aging lineup and a brand identity driven more by subprime financing than any suggestion of reliability or sportiness here in the US – but overseas? The brand is rolling out hit after hit, and the latest Nissan N6 plug-in sedan promises exactly the sort of entry-level panache that could change its American fortunes.
“Under our Re:Nissan plan, we are redefining what Nissan delivers today and beyond,” explains Nissan President and CEO Ivan Espinosa. “It’s about strengthening our core, reigniting Nissan’s heartbeat, and creating products that inspire excitement and trust. It is about a sharper, more focused product strategy, a stronger brand, and a renewed commitment to our customers. Integral to this transformation is China — an essential market whose speed, technological leadership, and customer insights are setting the pace for the global auto industry.”
Developed by the Nissan Dongfeng JV in China, the new N6 is more compact that the well-received N7 BEV. In fact, the new Nissan N6, at 190.1″ long, compares nicely to the 192.8″ length of the most recent (and largest-ever) US Maxima, discontinued in 2023. Like the Maxima, the top-shelf version features modern, near-luxe features like soft, leather-like surfaces, LED mood lighting, multi-way adjustable seats, and mimosas or something.
Mimosas or something
The four or five passengers inside the N6 are propelled down the road exclusively by the car’s 208 hp electric motor, which is efficient enough to take you 112 miles on a full charge of its 21.1 kWh LFP battery. Once that charge is depleted, a 1.5L gas engine kicks on as a high-efficiency generator to keep the good times rolling.
Nissan says the N6′ exterior design, “features a V-Motion signature grille and expressive LED lighting at the front and rear.” And says that the car’s crisp lines give it, “a confident, dynamic presence.”
All of which sounds good on its own, but sounds absolutely miraculous when you consider the car’s Chinese price: ¥106,900 – or about $15,000 US for the base Nissan N6 180 Pro, as I type this.
Even with a nearly 100% markup to give it a $29,990 price tag in the US, I think the N6 would be a huge hit in the North American market. And – good news! – thanks to Canada’s apparent willingness to give Chinese carmakers a shot, we might find out if I’m right somewhat sooner than later.
Check out the Nissan N6 image gallery, below, then let us know what you think of the car’s US and Canadian appeal in the comments.
Nissan N6 gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: Nissan.
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Environment
BLUETTI just dropped new home backup power stations – and slashed prices up to 65% for Black Friday
Whether you’re prepping for winter power outages, loading up the RV for a long-haul trip, or want clean, reliable power anywhere you go, BLUETTI has a portable power option for every need. And right now, the clean energy experts are offering up to 65% off their most popular products for Black Friday – plus they’ve just dropped two major new releases: the Elite 400 and B500K expansion battery.
Here’s a complete guide to what’s new, what’s on sale, and how to pick the model that fits your lifestyle best. There are also some special deals just for Electrek readers, so don’t miss out!
For home backup + outdoor adventures: Elite 200 V2 and all-new Elite 400
Elite 200 V2 – Best value for backup, camping, and van life
BLUETTI’s Elite 200 V2 is designed for power users who need versatility. It’s nicknamed the “Swiss Army Knife” of portable power stations because it powers everything from your fridge to your laptop — whether you’re off the grid or just want to keep the lights on during a storm.
Key specs:
- Battery capacity: 2,073.6Wh
- Continuous power output: 2,600W (3,900W surge)
- 9 output ports: AC, DC, USB-C, and more
- Recharges to 80% in just over one hour
- Ultra-quiet 16 dB operation
- LiFePO₄ battery with a 17-year lifespan (3,500+ cycles)
Who it’s for:
- RVers, weekend campers, off-grid explorers, small cabin owners
- Homeowners looking for dependable backup power
Commonly powered devices: Mini-fridges, coffee makers, power tools, microwaves, kettles, electric blankets, laptops, LED lights, wifi routers
Its compact profile makes it easy to tuck away in an RV cabinet, trunk, or apartment closet.
Elite 200 V2 Portable Power Station is regularly priced at $1,699, and it’s on sale for the record-low price of $699 – that’s a 59% discount for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Elite 400 Rolling Power Station — New and optimized for home
Launching November 15, the Elite 400 is a powerful 3.8kWh portable station designed with mobility and backup readiness in mind. With built-in wheels, a telescoping handle, and side grips, you can roll it anywhere – even if you’re flying solo.
Key specs:
- Battery capacity: 3,840Wh
- Continuous power output: 2,600W (3,900W lifting power)
- 9 output ports for simultaneous device charging
- 15ms UPS switchover during power outages
- Recharges to 80% in 70 minutes using AC + solar
- Low standby energy use (3W) with app-control wakeup and timers
Who it’s for:
- Homeowners needing serious backup power
- Outdoor event hosts, road trippers, off-grid enthusiasts
Commonly powered devices: Full-size refrigerators, sump pumps, CPAP machines, space heaters, power tools, projectors, outdoor cooking appliances, large TVs
Whether you’re powering your home in a blackout or running a campsite movie night, the Elite 400 delivers enough capacity to handle just about anything.
The new Elite 400 Portable Power Station is regularly priced at $2,999, and it’s making its debut on November 15 for $1,499 – that’s a 50% discount for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
For whole-home power and off-grid living: Meet the new B500K expansion battery
If you’re looking for a system that grows with your energy needs, the B500K expansion battery delivers massive storage potential at a competitive cost of around $0.33/Wh – making it an excellent choice for users seeking higher capacity than the well-acclaimed B300K. Paired with the Apex 300, it also qualifies for the soon-to-end 30% Federal Tax Credit. Designed to integrate seamlessly into BLUETTI’s modular ecosystem, it’s ideal for home battery backup or off-grid setups.
Key specs:
- Supports up to 100 kWh storage (paired with Apex 300 system)
- Compatible with BLUETTI’s SolarX 4K, B300K, Hub D1, and more
- Acts as both standalone power or an expansion battery
- Future-proof with long-term ecosystem integration
The new B500K expansion battery is regularly priced at $2,999, and it’s making its debut on November 15 for $1,699 – that’s a 43% discount for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Ideal bundles:
- Apex 300 + B500K: Best for large homes, off-grid living, and whole-home backup. With a larger individual capacity, the B500K enables a plug-and-play power system that can be expanded to a massive 100 kWh with the Apex 300. It provides 3.8 kW of power output and 7,884.8 Wh of capacity in total.
The Apex 300 + B500K Home Battery Backup is priced at $4,998, and it’s on sale for Black Friday for $3,098 – that’s a 38% discount.
- Apex 300 + B300K: The Apex 300, paired with the B300K, provides 5.5 kWh of capacity and up to 3.8kW of power output, offering smaller households or remote cabins reliable off-grid energy with room to scale. It’s an ideal way to support essential loads, such as refrigerators, lights, fans, and wifi routers, without the need to invest in a larger setup.
The Apex 300 + B300K is normally priced at $4,098, and it’s on sale for Black Friday for $2,299 –that’s a 44% discount.
Plus! Both bundles are fully eligible for the 30% federal Residential Clean Energy Credit through December 2025.
For everyday portability: Elite 30 V2 and the new Elite 10
Elite 30 V2 – now in EcoTide colors
If you need lightweight, flexible power for camping, car trips, desk-side charging, or college dorm use, the Elite 30 V2 is the sweet spot. Weighing just 4.3 kg, it’s a portable backup that fits in your backpack or on a small shelf. Plus, it comes in six fun colors.
Key specs:
- Battery capacity: 288Wh
- Continuous power output: 600W (1,500W surge)
- 9 output ports including 140W USB-C PD
- Charges to 80% in 45 minutes
- Quiet operation under 30 dB
- 10-year LiFePO₄ battery lifespan, with a 5-year warranty
Ideal for powering: Laptops, DSLR cameras, portable fans, smartphones, drones, modems, LED lighting, external hard drives
It’s perfect for digital nomads, travelers, or anyone who needs reliable backup power without adding bulk.
Elite 30 V2 Portable Power Station is regularly priced at $304, and it’s on sale for $199 – that’s a 35% discount for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. You can buy it on BLUETTI’s website here and on Amazon here.
Sneak preview: The new Elite 10 – pocket-sized power
Launching on November 20, the palm-sized Elite 10 is BLUETTI’s most compact power station yet. It’s the perfect in-between if a power bank won’t cut it, but you don’t want a full-sized power station.
Key specs:
- Battery capacity: 128Wh
- Power output: 200W AC (300W peak, 400W surge)
- 5 DC outlets + 200W AC outlet
- Fully recharges in 70 minutes
- LED light modes: reading, warm, SOS
Perfect for powering: Bluetooth speakers, portable fans, DSLR cameras, tablets, Chromebooks, routers, handheld consoles, mini-fridges
Small enough to slip into a tote, train bag, or glovebox, the Elite 10 is built for everyday carry and quick power access.
The Elite 10 launches next week and is said to be the best budget-friendly option yet – available for under $150, and rumored to go even lower. You’ll be able to grab it on BLUETTI’s website and on Amazon here starting November 20.
Electrek exclusive discounts
In addition to the fantastic Black Friday Cyber Monday sale prices, up to 65% off, BLUETTI is offering a special discount code just for Electrek readers!
- 95% of BLUETTI products qualify for an extra 5% off with code: ELECTREK5OFF
- The new Elite 400 and all Apex 300 series products qualify for 6% off with code: ELECTREK6OFF
Now is the best time to invest in a power system that’s quiet, clean, and ready whenever you need it – at home or beyond the grid.
The trusted name offers a full lineup of portable power stations to keep you charged – whether a winter storm hits or you’re enjoying outdoor adventures – and stay charged, no matter where life takes you.
Follow BLUETTI on Twitter/X here and on Facebook here.
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While other semi truck brands hide delays and missed deadlines behind press releases and fake updates, Volvo Trucks is busy cementing its position as the heavy-duty EV leader, thanks to great market share and a certified dealer network that’s seen 8,200% growth this decade.
Beginning with TEC Equipment in Fontana as the company’s only certified EV dealer in July 2021, Volvo Trucks’ BEV sales network has expanded quickly to 83 certified locations across 33 US states and four Canadian provinces, with four new dealer groups recently joining the program and another 13 rooftops currently in the certification pipeline. Those dealers have helped Volvo Trucks gain a leading position globally and maintain more than 30% market share in the North American electric truck segment over the past five years.
“Reaching this milestone is a testament to our customers’ commitment to sustainable transportation and our dealer network’s dedication to supporting them every step of the way,” explains Peter Voorhoeve, president, Volvo Trucks North America. “The path to zero emissions is shaped by market conditions, which are moving slowly. We remain committed to our vision to create a world we want to live in by using zero emissions solutions in combination with fuel efficient combustion engines with reduced climate impact. Solutions that will work for our clients where sustainability meets affordability.”
So far, those dealers have deployed over 700 battery electric semi trucks (out of 5,700 globally) that have logged more than 20 million zero-emission miles and eliminated an estimated 34,000 metric tons of CO2 – the equivalent of over 7,000 passenger cars.
Electrek’s Take
I’m struggling to reconcile Volvo’s true net zero rhetoric and seemingly dedicated push towards progressive and sustainable business practices with the US branch’s recent attempts to weasel out of their deal with California and, more specifically, CARB. Volvo is a leader in this space, and they should also lead by example where it matters.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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