Hydrogen Demand: And Now The Contentious Disappointments
In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.
Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.
Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2
This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.
That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.
His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.
On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.
Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.
Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.
Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons
Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.
Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author
Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.
Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.
Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.
Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author
And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.
The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?
Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.
As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.
Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons
And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.
There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.
No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.
My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.
And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.
Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.
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GM’s most affordable electric SUV just got a bit cheaper. Chevy introduced a new 0% financing offer on the 2026 Equinox EV, knocking about $4,000 off the price.
2026 Chevy Equinox EV financing offers
The electric Chevy Equinox is already one of the most affordable EVs you can get your hands on, with starting prices under $35,000.
Although the 2026 Chevy Equinox EV starts at $36,495, $1,500 more than the 2025 model year, Chevy is making up for it with its latest promo.
Chevy introduced a new 0% financing offer for 60 months on all 2026 Chevy Equinox EV trims last Friday. That’s a drastically lower rate than the previous 3.9% APR it was offering. According to online auto research firm CarsDirect, the rate cut could save you about $4,000 on a $40,000 loan.
For comparison, Tesla is advertising a 3.99% APR financing rate for the Model Y Standard, which starts at $39,990.
You might even be able to finance the $44,000 RS trim for less than the Model Y. The sporty trim offers an upgraded design with 21″ black wheels, a blacked-out grille, and other RS-exclusive features.
GM also extended the $1,250 conquest bonus to the 2026 Equinox EV. It’s available for those who own or lease a non-GM vehicle that’s at least a 2011 model year.
The 2026 Chevy Equinox EV starts at $36,495 with up to 319 miles of range, including a $1,395 destination fee. You can upgrade to AWD for an extra $5,300. The AWD variants offer up to 307 miles of range.
All 2025 model year Chevy electric vehicles, including the Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado, are available with 0% financing for 60 months.
| Chevy Equinox EV trim | 2025 Starting Price | 2026 Starting Price | EPA-estimated Range |
| LT 1 FWD | $34,995 | $36,495 | 319 miles |
| LT 1 AWD | $38,295 | $39,795 | 307 miles |
| LT 2 FWD | $43,295 | $43,295 | 319 miles |
| LT 2 AWD | $46,595 | $46,595 | 307 miles |
| RS FWD | $44,795 | $45,595 | 319 miles |
| RS AWD | $48,095 | $48,895 | 307 miles |
You can also score a $3,000 Customer Cash bonus on the 2025 Chevy Equinox EV, plus the $1,250 conquest offer. The 2025 Chevy Blazer EV is available with $3,500 in Customer Cash and a $1,250 conquest bonus.
With an affordable price and over 300 miles of driving range, the electric Chevy Equinox has become the third-most-popular EV in the US, trailing just the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
Want to check out Chevy’s electric vehicles for yourself? You can use our links below to find Chevy Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs at a dealership near you.
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Environment
Anker launches SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 station starting from $749, save up to $1,116 during Tenways’ early Black Friday e-bike sale, more
Headlining today’s Green Deals is the official launch of Anker’s new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 Portable Power Station and bundles that start at $749 for folks who took advantage of the early-bird savings promotion, while everyone else can score them starting from $799. We also have Tenways’ Early Black Friday Sale with up to $1,116 in savings on e-bikes, as well as select 50% off Power Bank (range extender) bundle options – all starting from $1,499. From there, we have exclusive Bluetti Halloween Sale deals on the Apex 300 Versatile Power Station and bundles starting from a new $1,349 low, as well as lawncare equipment from Worx and Greenworks, first savings on VIOFO’s new A229 Ultra dash cams, and more ongoing favorites waiting for you below. And don’t forget about the hangover deals from last week that are collected together at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s Aventon Level 3 Smart Commuter e-bike early Black Friday savings, EcoFlow’s latest 48-hour Halloween flash sale that ends tonight, and more.
Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.
Anker officially launches new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station and bundles with up to 50% savings from $749
Anker has officially launched its new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 Portable Power Station with up to $1,100 savings, unless you subscribed ahead of time to receive the code that allows for additional savings from the brand’s direct website. For folks who missed out on the early-bird deals, you can pick up the power station on its own for $799 shipped, which is also matching in price over at Amazon. It will normally fetch $1,499 at full price once these launch deals end, with the folks who subscribed and scored the code ahead of time getting an additional $50 off the price for $749 shipped. These are the very first savings of $700 and $750 off the going rate, setting the bar for future deals. Head below to learn more about this station’s capabilities, as well as get the full lineup of bundle deals we’re seeing both from the brand’s website and Amazon.
Coming as a remodeling of the legacy F2000 model, Anker’s new SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station brings more power and faster charging within a smaller and lighter form factor. It’s base LiFePO4 battery capacity starts at 2,048Wh and can be expanded up to 4,096Wh with the expansion battery bundle below. Through its 11 output ports (five ACs, one TT-30R RV port, three USB-Cs, one USB-A, and a car port) it delivers up to 2,400W of power that can surge up to 4,000W, which beats out its predecessor by 400W.
Anker’s SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 comes with six primary recharging methods, including an AC outlet (88 minutes for 100%), a gas generator (88 minutes for 100%), up to 800W of solar input (three hours for 100%), using both AC and solar simultaneously (58 minutes for 100%), your car’s auxiliary port (23 hours for 100%), or with the brand’s new 800W alternator charger.
***Note: The prices below do not factor in the early-bird savings code you should have received by subscribing ahead of this launch, so be sure to use it at checkout for even lower rates!
Anker SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 launch deals:
- C2000 Gen 2 (2,048Wh) power station: $799 (Reg. $1,499) | matched at Amazon
- C2000 Gen 2 (2,048Wh) with 200W solar panel: $1,049 (Reg. $1,998)
- C2000 Gen 2 (2,048Wh) with 400W solar panel: $1,299 (Reg. $2,398)
- C2000 Gen 2 (4,096Wh) with expansion battery: $1,398 (Reg. $2,498)
If you’re looking for something more compact, you can still score Anker’s PowerCore Reserve 60,000mAh/192Wh power station down at $80 right now. There’s also the brand’s Halloween Sale that is offering up to 63% discounts on units, with camping-ready solutions starting from $398, while we’re also seeing returning low prices on the SOLIX F3000 power station and bundles starting from $1,399, as well as the F3800 Plus power station and bundles starting from $2,599.
Get up to $1,116 early Black Friday savings on Tenways e-bike bundles starting from $1,499
Tenways has launched its Early Black Friday Sale, with up to $600 in savings on e-bikes alongside 50% off accessories, including the ongoing $1,116 savings on the AGO X All-Terrain Mid-Drive e-bike that gets a FREE Power Bank (range extender). Among the other deals we’re seeing, you can find Tenways’ CGO600 Pro Lightweight Commuter e-bike (both the chain and belt drives) with $118 in FREE add-on gear at $1,499 shipped – plus, you can add on a Power Bank (range extender) at 50% off on the page. Normally going for $1,899 in full, we’ve mostly been seeing the price taken down to $1,599 since March due to tariff hikes, with occasional falls lower to $1,499 for short timeframes. While we have seen it go lower in the past pre-tariff market, the deal here is a solid $400 price cut lending to a total $518 in savings ($672 if you add the Power Bank) that is the best price we’ve seen in our post-tariff market. You can also score an additional $150 off when buying two e-bikes together, with the usual medical provider, first responder, teacher, or military member discounts available too.
If you want to learn more about these particular e-bikes, as well as browse the full lineup of deals, be sure to check out our original coverage of this Early Black Friday Sale here.
Bluetti offers up to 47% exclusive Halloween savings on its Apex 300 series starting from new $1,349 low
As part of its newly launched Halloween Sale, and running parallel to the ongoing exclusive Pioneer Na(Sodium) power station launch savings, we are seeing lower-than-ever pricing on the brand’s Apex 300 Versatile Power Station and its bundles. Prices start from $1,349.10 shipped for the power station alone, after using the exclusive code 9TO5TOYS10F at checkout (and which only works for this series). It’s been carrying a $2,399 MSRP since releasing in May, though we’ve regularly had exclusive deals for our readers that take significantly more off the tag. We spotted this station previously dropping down the lowest three weeks ago during Prime Day, when it hit $1,394, but that rate is beaten out here by $45, giving you a total $1,050 savings at the best price we have tracked.
If you want to learn more about this power station series, or see the full lineup of offers, be sure to check out our original coverage of these exclusive deals here.
Worx’s 20V 10-inch cordless chainsaw gains extended reach with the pole attachment for $130
Amazon is offering the versatile Worx 20V 10-inch Cordless PowerShare Pole/Chainsaw Kit at $129.99 shipped. While it carries a $190 MSRP directly from the brand, it’s been keeping to $158 at full price here, with discounts mostly dropping costs between $140 and $130, though we did spy a one-time drop to $102 back in February. Aside from the early-year deal, you’re getting the next-best price that we have tracked over 2025, with $28 cut from Amazon’s going rate (and $60 off the MSRP).
If you want to learn more about this handy 2-in-1 tool, be sure to check out our original coverage of this deal here.
Best Fall EV deals!
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (camo) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $3,048 (Reg. $3,298)
- Velotric Nomad 2X e-bike (sage or fig) with DELTA 3 Plus station: $2,948 (Reg. $3,298)
- Heybike Hero 750W Mid-Drive Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (return low): $2,299 (Reg. $3,099)
- Rad Power Radster Road Commuter e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Rad Power Radster Trail Off-Road e-bike: $1,999 (Reg. $2,199)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 35Ah Cargo e-bike w/ up to $762 bundle: $1,999 (Reg. $2,761)
- Heybike Hero 1,000W Carbon-Fiber All-Terrain e-bike (new low): $1,899 (Reg. $2,599)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (gray or white) with DELTA 2 station: $1,898 (Reg. $2,198)
- Velotric Fold 1 Plus e-bike (mango or blue) with DELTA 2 station: $1,828 (Reg. $2,198)
- Aventon Aventure 3 Smart All-Terrain e-bike (first discount): $1,799 (Reg. $1,999)
- Aventon Aventure 3 Smart Step-Through All-Terrain e-bike (first discount): $1,799 (Reg. $1,999)
- Lectric XP Trike2 750 Long-Range eTrike with $558 bundle: $1,799 (Reg. $2,357)
- Rad Power RadExpand 5 Plus Folding e-bike (lowest price): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 26Ah Cargo e-bike w/ $613 bundle: $1,799 (Reg. $2,412)
- Aventon Level 3 Step-Over Smart Commuter e-bike (first discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Aventon Level 3 Step-Through Smart Commuter e-bike (first discount): $1,699 (Reg. $1,899)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Long-Range Off-Road e-bike with $404 bundle: $1,699 (Reg. $2,103)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike with extra battery: $1,599 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Abound Cargo e-bike: $1,599 (Reg. $1,999)
- Ride1Up VORSA Modular Multi-Use e-bike: $1,595 (Reg. $1,695)
- Rad Power RadRunner Cargo Utility e-bike with extra battery: $1,499 (No pirce cut)
- Lectric XPeak 2.0 Standard Off-Road e-bike with $247 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,746)
- Lectric XP Trike2 with $257 bundle: $1,499 (Reg. $1,756)
- Rad Power RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,799)
- Aventon Aventure 2 All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,999)
- Lectric XPedition 2.0 13Ah Cargo e-bike with $346 bundle: $1,399 (Reg. $1,745)
- Aventon Level 2 Commuter e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,899)
- Rad Power RadRover 6 Plus Step-Thru Fat Tire e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,599)
- Heybike ALPHA All-Terrain e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,699)
- Hiboy TITAN Pro Electric Scooter (new model, code HSTP10): $1,350 (Reg. $2,000)
- Lectric XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $439 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,703)
- Lectric XP4 750 LR Folding Utility e-bikes with up to $514 bundle: $1,299 (Reg. $1,813)
- Heybike Hauler Dual-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $1,299 (Reg. $1,899)
- Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with extra battery: $1,199 (Reg. $1,848)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 JW Black LR e-bike with $414 bundle: $1,099 (Reg. $1,513)
- Hiboy TITAN Electric Scooter (new model, code HST9): $1,001 (Reg. $1,700)
- Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $79 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,078)
- Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $414 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,438)
- Heybike Hauler Single-Battery Cargo e-bike (new low): $899 (Reg. $1,413)
- Segway E3 Pro Electric Scooter: $600 (Reg. $700)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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Tesla’s chairwoman said that the automaker might redesign the Cybercab, specifically add a steering wheel and pedals.
Last year, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab, a two-seater electric car without a steering wheel or pedals.
Musk was quoted during the design of the Cybercab:
No mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel. Let me be clear. This vehicle must be designed as a clean robotaxi. We’re going to take that risk…But we are not going to design some sort of amphibian frog that’s a halfway car. We are all in on autonomy.
Here’s the interior of the Tesla Cybercab:
The vehicle was one of several new, cheaper electric vehicles that Tesla was developing for its new ‘unboxed’ platform, but CEO Elon Musk canceled the others, believing they wouldn’t be needed with the advent of autonomous driving.
However, Tesla has yet to solve unsupervised autonomous driving, and Musk has been consistently wrong about predicting when it will happen.
Tesla plans to bring the Cybercab to production in 2026, and during Tesla’s earnings call last week, Musk said the Cybercab will account for the bulk of Tesla’s upcoming production growth.
That’s not going to happen if Tesla hasn’t solved unsupervised self-driving.
Furthermore, while federal regulations for self-driving vehicles have been relaxed recently, there’s only an exemption available for 2,500 passenger vehicles without a steering wheel or pedals per manufacturer per year.
Now, Tesla chairwoman Robin Denholm said in an interview with Bloomberg today that Tesla plans to add a steering wheel and pedals to the Cybercab if needed:
“If we have to have a steering wheel, it can have a steering wheel and pedals.”
Tesla is currently setting up Cybercab production at Gigafactory Texas near Austin.
The automaker has framed the vehicle as a cheaper alternative to Model Y for its Robotaxi service.
Electrek’s Take
Just yesterday, I was talking to my friend Bastien, and he called it. He told me he bets Tesla does launch the Cybercab next year, but with a steering wheel and pedals.
Now, let’s be clear. As of today, Tesla’s need for a steering wheel and pedals in the Cybercab is not driven by regulators, as Denholm suggests.
Tesla hasn’t solved unsupervised self-driving as evidenced by the current version of ‘Full Self-Driving (Supervised)’ in consumer vehicles, and its Robotaxi service still has safety monitors.
If Tesla wants to produce and deliver the Cybercab in any significant volume, it would need a steering wheel.
The regulations are just an excuse as of now.
It could change in the future, but for now, Tesla’s technology is without a doubt the limiting factor.
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