Hydrogen Demand: And Now The Contentious Disappointments
In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.
Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.
Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2
This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.
That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.
His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.
On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.
Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.
Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.
Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons
Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.
Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author
Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.
Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.
Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.
Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author
And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.
The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?
Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.
As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.
Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons
And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.
There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.
No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.
My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.
And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.
Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.
Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.
In a discussion on the increase in crime committed by individuals riding electric motorbikes, the Hampshire Police and Crime Commissioner, Donna Jones, has claimed that a certain style of bike is being used “almost exclusively” for criminal actions.
Jones, a British Conservative Party politician, made the claim in reference to Sur Ron-style electric motorbikes, which resemble something fitting between a small dirt bike and a large electric bicycle.
These vehicles, which can often reach around 50 mph (80 km/h), are technically not electric bicycles but rather small electric motorcycles. They are designed primarily for use on off-road trails and other non-street uses, meaning they are rarely street-legal. However, young riders often use them on streets anyway.
According to the Daily Mail, “The Police and Crime Commissioner claimed the majority of people using these type of e-bikes are ‘doing something wrong’ as she voiced her concerns over the spate of crime gripping Britain.”
Jones says that these electric motorbikes have been used extensively in street crime, usually in the form of phone snatching. Social media is full of videos of pedestrians walking down the street while using their phones and having them grabbed by a rider of a Sur Ron-style electric motorbike.
Scotland Yard has reportedly been in contact with the Chinese company Sur Ron, the manufacturer of many of these electric motorbikes, and the company has apparently vowed to cooperate with police.
Sur-Ron-style electric motorbikes have surged in popularity among young riders in Britain, particularly in urban areas where their lightweight frames, high torque, and near-silent operation make them appealing for both recreation and practical commuting. However, we’ve also seen them become a praised getaway vehicle for criminals, even if Jones’ claim that they are used “almost exclusively” for crime is quite likely an exaggeration based on confirmation bias.
Unlike traditional combustion engine motorcycles, these e-motorbikes can be more easily obtained to be ridden without a license, even if that is not permitted by local laws. Additionally, many are easily modified to exceed UK regulations with higher speed and power than is traditionally permitted.
Their ability to accelerate quickly and maneuver through traffic with ease has also made them a tool of choice for criminal activity, particularly in these types of phone-snatching and ride-by thefts, where offenders use the bikes to evade police and disappear into narrow streets or pedestrian areas.
With police enforcement struggling to keep pace with their widespread, often unregistered use, authorities continue to debate whether tougher restrictions or alternative solutions are needed to curb both their illegal modifications and criminal misuse.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
After dominating in China, BYD is making an aggressive push into Europe. With another EV plant reportedly coming soon, this time in Germany, BYD is taking direct aim at Volkswagen, BMW, and other domestic OEMs.
BYD wants a third EV plant in Europe, likely in Germany
BYD is already quickly expanding its European footprint with two manufacturing plants under construction. One is in Hungary, and the other is in Turkey.
According to a new report, a third could be coming soon. BYD’s executive vice president, Stella Li, recently told German newspaper Automobilwoche that the Chinese EV maker is eyeing another plant, and this time, it could be in Germany, the heart of Europe’s auto industry.
Although Li didn’t offer any other details, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Germany is likely BYD’s best option.
Germany is home to Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and several others, which could lead to a major market shakeup.
BYD has been gaining momentum, with overseas sales surging in the first two months of 2025. In January, the company sold a record 66,336 NEVs overseas. Last month, BYD topped that with just over 67,000 vehicles shipped to overseas markets.
Chinese brands continued gaining traction despite new vehicle registrations falling 2% in Europe in January. With over 37,100 vehicles registered, Chinese brands accounted for 3.7% of the market, up from 2.4% in January 2023.
BYD wants to grow the brand in Europe and connect with local buyers. Although Germany would likely be the best place to do so, high energy costs could be a challenge.
Last Summer, BYD bought out its German distributor, Heden Electric Mobility, giving it more control over pricing and out.put
With the EU imposing new tariffs on EV imports from China, BYD could offset some of the costs through local production. Meanwhile, China has also warned domestic companies not to invest in countries applying additional tariffs.
BYD’s plant in Hungary is scheduled to open in October. The second in Turkey will come online in 2026, and both plants are expected to have a combined annual production capacity of 500,000.
Although BYD is best known for its low-cost electric cars, like the Dolphin and Atto 3, the company is expanding with luxury EVs, pickups, smart SUVs, and supercars now hitting the market.
BYD is aggressively ramping up in the region. According to S&P Global Mobility, BYD’s sales are expected to double in 2025 to 186,000. By 2029, the company is expected to sell around 400,000 vehicles with a full lineup.
No final decision has been made yet, but Li said the third plant could come within the next two years. After overtaking Volkswagen as China’s largest automaker, BYD could set up shop on its home turf. Check back soon for more. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
We EV enthusiasts have heard it all from the haters before. “What are you gonna do with all those batteries?” “There’s just not enough range,” and, of course, “Charging takes so much longer than a gas station visit.” As previously teased, Chinese auto conglomerate BYD has introduced a new 1,000-volt EV platform that can enable charging rates as fast (or perhaps faster) than a trip to the gas station. We’re talking five minutes.
We got official confirmation from BYD this morning (evening in Shenzen, China) following a report we followed last Friday. On its Weibo page last week, Build Your Dreams (BYD) teased some capabilities of a new EV architecture it calls the “Super E-Platform,” sharing that it will enable charging parity with gas station visits.
To achieve that, BYD promised 1,000 kW charge speeds—double the current industry leaders, including Tesla. In reality, it’s tripling the standard as most fast chargers on the market can only reach about 350 kW, and many of them (in the US, at least) are usually more in the 200s.
While there are some ultra-luxe EV models powered by higher voltage platforms, 800V has been the ceiling for a while, and to be honest, most models today cannot even hit 350 kW. BYD plans to change that with its new “Super E-Platform,” which has officially been unveiled and offers 1,000V and charge rates up to 1,000 kW.
BYD delivers charging speeds similar to gas station visits
As promised last Friday, BYD held a livestream event at its headquarters in Shenzen, China, where it officially unveiled its new 1,000V Super E-Platform, capable of charging 1MW+ (1,000 kW) rates. Per its Weibo post (translated from Chinese):
BYD officially releases flash charging battery with ultra-high voltage of 1000V, ultra-large current of 1000A and ultra-large power of 1000kW, achieving global mass production of megawatt flash charging with the highest peak charging speed of 1 second and 2 kilometers, completely solving users’ charging anxiety when traveling.
As you can see from the images detailing the new platform’s specs above, this is a 1,000-volt, 1,000-amp platform that enables charging up to 400km (249 miles) of range in a mere five minutes. As we pointed out last week, today’s event also marked the launch of BYD’s new Han L and Tang L models in China, which will utilize the new fast-charging platform.
To support future models capable of these industry-leading charging speeds, BYD plans to implement over 4,000 ultra-fast charging stations around China. However, the timeline of that rollout remains unknown to the public. You can watch BYD’s complete live stream, debuting the technology and its capabilities here.
Electrek’s take
While this technology is designed in China, for China (at least for now), BYD’s debut of the Super E-Platform is a momentous day for the EV industry. BYD has developed and delivered platform architecture that is the best in the world on paper and has proven that it is possible to deliver charging speeds that are on par with a trip to the gas station.
Charging times remain a huge hurdle for larger EV adoption, so news like this breaks a ceiling for the current industry and offers a glimpse into the future to a day when more and more electric vehicles can recharge quickly, taking one more argument away from naysayers. Bravo BYD.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports12 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway