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In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.

Hydrogen demand through 2100 by author

Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.

Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2

This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.

That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.

His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.

On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.

Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.

Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100.

Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons

Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.

Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author

Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.

High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.

Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.

Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.

Demand management strategies vs V2g projection

Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author

And the emergence of massive electrification increases the ability to do demand management at much larger scales.

The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?

Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.

As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.

Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons

And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions.

There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.

No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.

My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.


And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.

Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.

 

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Hyundai IONIQ 5 vs Chevy Equinox EV: Which makes the better lease?

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Hyundai IONIQ 5 vs Chevy Equinox EV: Which makes the better lease?

The new and improved Hyundai IONIQ 5, or the hot-selling Chevy Equinox EV? Which electric SUV makes the smarter lease? Here’s the rundown.

Over 607,000 electric vehicles were sold in the US in the first half of 2025, thanks to some big discounts. Many automakers are currently offering generous savings, as Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is set to end federal EV incentives at the end of September.

According to Cox Automotive’s latest EV Market Monitor report, EV incentives reached a record of nearly $8,500 in June, or about 15% off the average transaction price (ATP).

That’s more than double the incentives offered on gas-powered vehicles. Seven electric vehicles had an ATP below $40,000, including the Chevy Equinox EV. The Equinox EV was the top-selling EV in the price range.

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Starting at just $34,995, GM calls it “America’s most affordable 315+ range EV.” The electric Equinox has already propelled Chevy to become the number two EV brand in the US behind Tesla.

Chevy-Equinox-EV-lease
2025 Chevy Equinox EV LT (Source: GM)

Through the first half of the year, the Chevy Equinox EV accounted for nearly a third of GM’s electric vehicle sales. And it could have sold even more. A dealer in California reached out to Electrek, claiming they had to wait over a month to receive Equinox EV models. It’s now on track to be among the top three selling EVs in the US.

Chevy-Equinox-EV-lease
Chevy Equinox EV interior (Source: GM)

Which EV to lease: Chevy Equinox EV or Hyundai IONIQ 5

With leases starting at just $289 per month, it’s no wonder the electric SUV is flying off the lot. The offer is for 24 months with $3,909 due at signing.

Alternatively, you can opt for 0% APR financing for 60 months, which Chevy is offering on all 2025 electric vehicle models.

2025 Chevy Equinox EV trim Starting Price EPA-estimated Range Monthly lease Price
(July 2025)
LT FWD $34,995 319 miles $289
LT AWD $40,295 307 miles $351
RS FWD $45,790 319 miles $416
RS AWD $49,090 307 miles $453
2025 Chevy Equinox EV prices, range, and lease price (Including $1,395 destination fee)

The base 2025 Chevy Equinox EV LT starts at $34,995 with up to 319 miles of range. The interior boasts up to 57.2 cu ft of space and a 17.7″ infotainment screen.

How does it compare to the IONIQ 5? Hyundai has upgraded its best-selling electric SUV with major improvements, including increased range (now up to 318 miles), a revamped interior and exterior, and a built-in NACS port to access Tesla Superchargers.

Hyundai-IONIQ-5-lease
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 at a Tesla Supercharger (Source: Hyundai)

After cutting lease prices again this month, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 is currently listed at just $179 per month.

However, that’s for the base SE mode, which has an EPA-estimated driving range of 245 miles. The longer-range IONIQ 5 SE RWD, with 318 miles range, can still be leased for just $199 per month right now. Both offers are for 24 months with $3,999 due at signing.

2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 Trim EV Powertrain Driving Range (miles) Starting Price*  Monthly lease price July 2025
IONIQ 5 SE RWD Standard Range 168-horsepower rear motor 245 $42,500 $179
IONIQ 5 SE RWD 225-horsepower rear motor 318 $46,550 $199
IONIQ 5 SEL RWD 225-horsepower rear motor 318 $49,500 $209
IONIQ 5 Limited RWD 225-horsepower rear motor 318 $54,200 $309
IONIQ 5 SE Dual Motor AWD 320-horsepower dual motor 290 $50,050 $249
IONIQ 5 SEL Dual Motor AWD 320-horsepower dual motor 290 $53,000 $259
IONIQ 5 XRT Dual Motor  AWD 320 horsepower dual motor 259 $55,400 $359
IONIQ 5 Limited Dual Motor AWD 320-horsepower dual motor 269 $58,100 $299
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 price, range, and lease price

Hyundai is also throwing in a complimentary ChargePoint Level 2 home charger with the purchase or lease of a new 2025 IONIQ 5. All IONIQ 5 trims are listed with 1.99% APR financing for up to 60 months.

The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 offers up to 59.3 cu ft of cargo space with a dual 12.3″ driver display and infotainment system setup.

Hyundai-IONIQ-5-lease
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 Limited interior (Source: Hyundai)

Both the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Chevy Equinox EV are hard to pass up right now, with lease prices expected to be as low as they will ever be.

Looking to snag the savings while they last? You can use our links below to find offers on the Chevy Equinox EV and Hyundai IONIQ 5 near you.

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VW’s ID. EVs shrug off 100k miles with 91% battery health

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VW’s ID. EVs shrug off 100k miles with 91% battery health

Volkswagen’s ID.3 just got a gold star from the folks at ADAC, Europe’s largest automobile club. After four years of pushing the all-electric hatchback to its limits in a long-term endurance test, the VW ID.3’s battery still held 91% of its original capacity – a big win for EV durability.

Engineers at ADAC’s Test and Technology Centre in Landsberg am Lech, Germany, put the ID.3 Pro S through its paces, clocking over 160,000 kilometers (roughly 99,400 miles). That’s the full length of VW’s battery warranty – eight years or 160,000 km – and the car came out swinging.

The ID.3 Pro S is equipped with a 77 kWh net-capacity battery. Volkswagen guarantees that its ID. models will keep at least 70% of their original net battery capacity by the end of the warranty period. After the test, the ID.3 beat that benchmark by a long shot.

The ADAC didn’t baby this car, either. Over 40% of the charging was done using DC fast chargers, and the vehicle was frequently left at 100% charge between test drives, sometimes for days at a time. (That’s a no-no for battery longevity, but it’s precisely why this test matters.)

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Engineers kept a close eye on the ID.3’s battery health between drives. They also regularly updated the vehicle software, including installing Volkswagen’s EV Route Planner, which calculates optimal charging stops using real-time traffic and charge level data. One major update even bumped up the charging rate to 170 kW.

The software upgrades didn’t just improve charging – they helped boost efficiency too, especially over short distances and during chilly winter temps (0–5C/32–41F).

Beyond battery life, the VW ID.3 also scored high marks for build quality. Even after all those kilometers, ADAC said the chassis, suspension, steering, and body were still in solid shape – no significant wear or issues.

ADAC’s big piece of advice is to keep your software up to date. That made a noticeable difference in range and driving experience over the four-year test.

Martin Sander, a Volkswagen board of management member responsible for sales, marketing and after sales, says the results show its ID. line (including the US-made ID.4s) is built to last. “A high battery capacity of over 90% after 160,000 kilometers confirms our ID. models are also very attractive as used cars and continue to meet the requirements of our customers.”


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Podcast: Tesla announces new EV variants, Robotaxi wars, big Lucid news, and more

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Podcast: Tesla announces new EV variants, Robotaxi wars, big Lucid news, and more

In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla announcing new Model 3 and Model Y variants, the robotaxi expansion wars, big Lucid news, and more

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:

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