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As many as one-in-four UK households receive energy from providers that could face collapse as a consequence of soaring gas prices, industry sources have warned.

A 250% increase in prices has exposed providers whose wholesale supplies are not “hedged” or insured against market fluctuations, meaning they can now only fulfil supply deals with customers at a significant loss.

The increase has already triggered the collapse of two providers and left others vulnerable including Bulb, one of the larger new entrants to the market which has 1.5 million customers.

The scale of the crisis emerged after a third day of emergency talks between energy providers, regulators and business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng aimed at protecting customers of failing firms.

Customers of failed providers are automatically passed to another supplier, but the gap between real-world prices and the Ofgem price cap, estimated at at least £300 a year, means they will be doing so at a loss.

Industry insiders estimate that providing unhedged energy for every one million new customers at current market rates would cost £1bn, a total bill of up to £6bn if every unhedged firm was to fail.

The huge potential exposure has prompted Mr Kwarteng to consider granting government-backed loans to established providers to ensure they are able to take on new customers.

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In talks Mr Kwarteng has stressed that the government will not bail out failing firms and that no company is “too big to fail”, but the loan proposal is an acknowledgement that the current market is dysfunctional.

Providers would still have to borrow the funds on commercial markets, but the loans would be secured against government guarantee and be paid back over a long period, with the cost shared across all energy bills.

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Greg Jackson, the CEO of Octopus Energy, updates Ian King on the market struggles that are forcing bills up.

British Gas today confirmed it is taking on 350,000 customers from the collapsed People’s Energy under the existing “Supplier of Last Resort” arrangements.

Under the scheme it said any costs it could not recover, including those incurred from buying energy, would be recovered from an industry levy.

Many hedged providers argue that the crisis is not about prices, but prudent management and believe that smaller companies who profited from not hedging when prices were falling are now reaping the consequences.

“The market is a dog’s dinner,” said Dale Vince, founder of renewable provider Ecotricity, which hedges all but 10% of its supply.

“We have seen companies selling power for less than they can buy it for and running constant losses to grow a customer base very quickly.

“Then at the same time we’ve got a regulator that says even though there are 70 competitors in the market there’s no competition so let’s have a price cap.

“There is too much interference there, but not enough with the business models and the need for hedging.

“Shouldn’t it be a requirement that energy companies buy what they’re going to sell?”

Newer entrants, however, argue they meet a demand for more straightforward bills and cheaper supply to challenge the dominance of the bigger established players.

Simon McGirr, chief executive of Green Energy, which has 250,000 customers but is unhedged, does not expect the company to survive the winter.

“With the current market conditions we are facing huge financial distress and it will be very difficult to continue trading,” he said.

“Hedging is a fine art and we have not been able to forecast the changing conditions across lockdowns and different rules in different regions.

“We have given people what they wanted, simple cheap tariffs and 95% of customers fully online, but now we are being swept under the carpet by the government.”

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Hobbycraft to axe stores and jobs in radical restructuring

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Hobbycraft to axe stores and jobs in radical restructuring

The new owner of WH Smith’s high street arm is drawing up plans which could result in the closure of nearly a quarter of the stores operated by Hobbycraft, the arts and crafts chain.

Sky News has learnt that Modella Capital, a private investment firm which specialises in taking over troubled retailers, is preparing to launch a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at Hobbycraft as soon as Wednesday.

People close to the proposals said that nine of its shops would be closed, with the loss of roughly 100 jobs, and that 18 more would remain open only if negotiations with landlords over rent cuts concluded successfully.

A further 97 stores will remain unaffected by the CVA, the people added, protecting 1,800 jobs.

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If the talks with landlords do not progress as envisaged and the 18 affected stores are also earmarked for closure, at least 150 more redundancies could be triggered based on Hobbycraft’s average number of employees per store.

Some job losses are also expected at the company’s head office and distribution operations, according to insiders.

The Hobbycraft CVA is expected to be launched shortly before Modella also pursues a restructuring at The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), the discount chain it acquired just two months ago.

An HMRC investigation into minimum wage breaches found WHSmith was the worst offender
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Modella owns WH Smith. File pic: NetStorage

One industry source speculated that as many as between 30 and 40 TOFS outlets could close, resulting in hundreds more layoffs.

The dual restructuring processes will raise questions about whether Modella plans a similar cull of shops and workers at WH Smith, which it has said will be renamed TG Jones following the takeover.

In a statement, a Modella spokesman said: “Modella Capital is absolutely committed to bricks and mortar retail, at a time when the sector is coming under increasing pressure.

“[Modella] understands that high streets provide a vital service to consumers, are an essential source of employment and are key to the future success of local economies.

“Modella Capital believes that many retailers can thrive on the high street; particularly those with a distinctive offer and a loyal customer base.

“Where necessary, Modella Capital has the skills and experience to restructure retailers that require it, in order to ensure they create profitable, ongoing businesses that will continue to serve communities and employ thousands of people across the UK.”

FRP, the professional services firm, is overseeing the Hobbycraft CVA, while Interpath Advisory is working on the equivalent process at TOFS.

CVAs – a widely used tool in the retail and hospitality sectors in recent years – are frequently utilised to facilitate store closures and rent cuts from landlords.

Modella bought Hobbycraft, which was founded in 1995, from the private equity firm Bridgepoint last summer.

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

Rachel Reeves will pledge to “stand up for Britain’s national interest” as she heads to Washington DC amid hopes of a UK/US trade deal.

The chancellor will fly to the US capital for her spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the first of which began on Sunday.

During her three-day visit, Ms Reeves is set to hold meetings with G7, G20 and IMF counterparts about the changing global economy and is expected to make the case for open trade.

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Her visit comes after Donald Trump imposed blanket 10% tariffs on all imports into the US, including from the UK, and as talks about reaching a trade deal intensified.

The chancellor will also hold her first in-person meeting with her US counterpart, treasury secretary Scott Bessent, about striking a new trade agreement, which the UK hopes will take the sting out of Mr Trump’s tariffs.

In addition to the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.

Ms Reeves will also be hoping to encourage fellow European finance ministers to increase their defence spending and discuss the best ways to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

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Speaking ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “The world has changed, and we are in a new era of global trade. I am in no doubt that the imposition of tariffs will have a profound impact on the global economy and the economy at home.

“This changing world is unsettling for families who are worried about the cost of living and businesses concerned about what tariffs will mean for them. But our task as a government is not to be knocked off course or to take rash action which risks undermining people’s security.

“Instead, we must rise to meet the moment and I will always act to defend British interests as part of our plan for change.

“We need a world economy that provides stability and fairness for businesses wanting to invest and trade, more trade and global partnerships between nations with shared interests, and security for working people who want to get on with their lives.”

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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