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As many as one-in-four UK households receive energy from providers that could face collapse as a consequence of soaring gas prices, industry sources have warned.

A 250% increase in prices has exposed providers whose wholesale supplies are not “hedged” or insured against market fluctuations, meaning they can now only fulfil supply deals with customers at a significant loss.

The increase has already triggered the collapse of two providers and left others vulnerable including Bulb, one of the larger new entrants to the market which has 1.5 million customers.

The scale of the crisis emerged after a third day of emergency talks between energy providers, regulators and business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng aimed at protecting customers of failing firms.

Customers of failed providers are automatically passed to another supplier, but the gap between real-world prices and the Ofgem price cap, estimated at at least £300 a year, means they will be doing so at a loss.

Industry insiders estimate that providing unhedged energy for every one million new customers at current market rates would cost £1bn, a total bill of up to £6bn if every unhedged firm was to fail.

The huge potential exposure has prompted Mr Kwarteng to consider granting government-backed loans to established providers to ensure they are able to take on new customers.

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In talks Mr Kwarteng has stressed that the government will not bail out failing firms and that no company is “too big to fail”, but the loan proposal is an acknowledgement that the current market is dysfunctional.

Providers would still have to borrow the funds on commercial markets, but the loans would be secured against government guarantee and be paid back over a long period, with the cost shared across all energy bills.

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Greg Jackson, the CEO of Octopus Energy, updates Ian King on the market struggles that are forcing bills up.

British Gas today confirmed it is taking on 350,000 customers from the collapsed People’s Energy under the existing “Supplier of Last Resort” arrangements.

Under the scheme it said any costs it could not recover, including those incurred from buying energy, would be recovered from an industry levy.

Many hedged providers argue that the crisis is not about prices, but prudent management and believe that smaller companies who profited from not hedging when prices were falling are now reaping the consequences.

“The market is a dog’s dinner,” said Dale Vince, founder of renewable provider Ecotricity, which hedges all but 10% of its supply.

“We have seen companies selling power for less than they can buy it for and running constant losses to grow a customer base very quickly.

“Then at the same time we’ve got a regulator that says even though there are 70 competitors in the market there’s no competition so let’s have a price cap.

“There is too much interference there, but not enough with the business models and the need for hedging.

“Shouldn’t it be a requirement that energy companies buy what they’re going to sell?”

Newer entrants, however, argue they meet a demand for more straightforward bills and cheaper supply to challenge the dominance of the bigger established players.

Simon McGirr, chief executive of Green Energy, which has 250,000 customers but is unhedged, does not expect the company to survive the winter.

“With the current market conditions we are facing huge financial distress and it will be very difficult to continue trading,” he said.

“Hedging is a fine art and we have not been able to forecast the changing conditions across lockdowns and different rules in different regions.

“We have given people what they wanted, simple cheap tariffs and 95% of customers fully online, but now we are being swept under the carpet by the government.”

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City traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned after 10-year fight

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City traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned after 10-year fight

Two traders jailed for rigging benchmark interest rates have had their convictions overturned by the Supreme Court.

Tom Hayes, 45, was handed a 14-year jail sentence – cut to 11 years on appeal – in 2015, which was one of the toughest ever to be imposed for white-collar crime in UK history.

The former Citigroup and UBS trader, along with Carlo Palombo, 46, who was jailed for four years in 2019 over rigging the Euribor interest rates, took their cases to the country’s highest court after the Court of Appeal dismissed their appeals last year.

The Supreme Court unanimously allowed Mr Hayes’ appeal, overturning his 2015 conviction of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud by manipulating Libor, a now-defunct benchmark interest rate.

Tom Hayes and  Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
Pic: Reuters
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their convictions were overturned. Pic: Reuters

Ex-vice president of euro rates at Barclays bank Mr Palombo’s conviction for conspiring with others to submit false or misleading Euribor submissions between 2005 and 2009 was also quashed.

Mr Hayes, who served five and a half years in prison before being released on licence in 2021, described the “incredible feeling” after the ruling.

“My faith in the criminal justice system at times was likely destroyed and it has been restored by the justices from the Supreme Court today and I think it’s only right that more criminal appeals should be heard at this level,” he said.

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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo outside the Supreme Court. Pic: Reuters

Both he and Mr Palombo have been described as “scapegoats” for the 2008 financial crisis, but Mr Hayes said: “We literally had nothing to do with it.”

A spokesperson for the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), which opposed the appeals, said it would not be seeking a retrial.

In 2012, the SFO began criminal investigations into traders it suspected of manipulating the Libor and Euribor benchmark interest rates.

Former trader Tom Hayes.
Pic: PA
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Former trader Tom Hayes. Pic: PA

Mr Hayes was the first person to be prosecuted by the SFO, which brought prosecutions against 20 people between 2013 and 2019, seven of whom were convicted at trial, two pleaded guilty and 11 were acquitted.

He had also been facing criminal charges in the US but these were dismissed after two other men involved in a similar case had their convictions reversed in 2022.

Mr Hayes, a gifted mathematician who is autistic, was described at his Southwark Crown Court trial as the “ringmaster” at the centre of an enormous fraud to manipulate benchmark interest rates and boost his own six-figure earnings.

He has always maintained that the Libor rates he requested fell within a permissible range and that his conduct was common at the time and condoned by bosses.

Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo argued their convictions depended on a definition of Libor and Euribor which assumes there is an absolute legal bar on a bank’s commercial interests being taken into account when setting rates.

The panel of five Supreme Court justices found there was “ample evidence” for a jury to convict the two men if it had been properly directed.

But in an 82-page judgment, Lord Leggatt said jury direction errors made both convictions unsafe, adding: “That misdirection undermined the fairness of the trial.”

Lawyers representing Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo said the ruling could open the door for the seven others found guilty to have their convictions overturned and that there were grounds for a public inquiry.

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

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Goldman Sachs boss sounds warning to Reeves on tax and regulation

London and the UK’s leading status in the global financial system is “fragile”, the boss of Goldman Sachs has warned, as the government grapples with a tough economy.

Speaking ahead of a meeting with the prime minister, David Solomon – chairman and chief executive of the huge US investment bank – told Sky News presenter Wilfred Frost’s The Master Investor Podcast of several concerns related to tax and regulation.

He urged the government not to push people and business away through poor policy that would damage its primary aim of securing improved economic growth, arguing that European rivals were currently proving more attractive.

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He said: “The financial industry is still driven by talent and capital formation. And those things are much more mobile than they were 25 years ago.

“London continues to be an important financial centre. But because of Brexit, because of the way the world’s evolving, the talent that was more centred here is more mobile.

“We as a firm have many more people on the continent. Policy matters, incentives matter.

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“I’m encouraged by some of what the current government is talking about in terms of supporting business and trying to support a more growth oriented agenda.

“But if you don’t set a policy that keeps talent here, that encourages capital formation here, I think over time you risk that.”

He had a stark warning about the recent reversal of the “Non Dom” tax policy, which occurred across both the prior Conservative government and the current Labour government, which has played a part in some senior Goldman partners relocating away from London.

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Chancellor will not be drawn on wealth tax

Richard Gnodde, one of the bank’s vice-chairs, left for Milan earlier this year.

“Incentives matter if you create tax policy or incentives that push people away, you harm your economy,” Mr Solomon continued.

“If you go back, you know, ten years ago, I think we probably had 80 people in Paris. You know, we have 400 people in Paris now… And so in Goldman Sachs today, if you’re in Europe, you can live in London, you can live in Paris, you can live in Germany, in Frankfurt or Munich, you can live in Italy, you can live in Switzerland.

“And we’ve got, you know, real offices. You just have to recognise talent is more mobile.”

Goldman is understood to have about 6,000 employees in the UK.

Rachel Reeves is currently seeking ways to fill a black hole in the public finances and has refused to rule out wealth taxes at the next budget.

Mr Solomon expressed sympathy for her as her tears in parliament earlier this month led to speculation about the pressure of the job.

“I have sympathy, I have empathy not just for the chancellor, but for anyone who’s serving in one of these governments,” he said, referring to the turbulent political landscape globally.

Commenting on the chancellor’s Mansion House speech last week, he added: “The chancellor spoke here about regulation, she’s talking about regulation not just for safety and soundness, but also for growth.

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Takeaways from chancellor’s Mansion House speech

“And now we have to see the action steps that actually follow through and encourage that.”

One area he was particularly keen to see follow through from her Mansion House speech was ringfencing – the post financial crisis regulation that requires banks to separate their retail activities from their investment banking activities.

“It’s a place where the UK is an outlier, and by being an outlier, it prevents capital formation and growth.

“What’s the justification for being an outlier? Why is this so difficult to change? It’s hard to make a substantive policy argument that this is like a great policy for the UK. So why is it so hard to change?”

The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost is available across multiple podcast platforms

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Government borrowing soars to second-highest level on record

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Government borrowing soars to second-highest level on record

Government borrowing rose significantly more than expected last month as debt interest payments soared.

Official figures show the cost of public services and interest payments on government debt rose faster than the increases in income tax and national insurance contributions.

It means government borrowing reached the second-highest level in June since records began in 1993, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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June’s borrowing figures – £20.684bn – were second only to the highs seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when many workers were furloughed.

The figure was a surprise, nearly £4bn higher than anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

State borrowing – the difference between income from things like taxes and expenditure on the likes of public services – was more than £6bn higher than the same month last year.

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Pushing the borrowing figure up was the high cost of interest payments, which was the second-highest June figure since those records began in 1997. Only June 2022 saw higher spending on government debt.

But despite the latest rise, borrowing this year is in line with the March forecast from the independent forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), though it’s the second month in a row borrowing was above its projections.

It’s bad news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has vowed to bring down government debt and balance the budget by 2030 as part of her self-imposed fiscal rules.

She’s expected to increase taxes to meet the gap between spending and tax revenue.

The pressure is such that analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.”

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What’s the deal with wealth taxes?

Rob Wood, its chief UK economist, estimated the size of the gap between government expenditure and income has grown.

“All told, we estimate that the chancellor’s £9.9bn of headroom has turned into a £13bn hole, meaning that Ms Reeves would need to raise taxes or cut spending by a little over £20bn in the autumn budget to restore her slim margin of headroom,” he said.

“We expect ‘sin tax’ and duty hikes, freezing income tax thresholds for an extra year in 2029 and a pensions tax raid – reinstating the lifetime limit on pension pots and cutting relief – to fill most of the hole.”

Taxes on goods such as alcohol and tobacco are classed as sin taxes.

Darren Jones, Ms Reeves’s deputy as the chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “We are committed to tough fiscal rules, so we do not borrow for day-to-day spending and get debt down as a share of our economy.”

“This commitment to economic stability means we can get on with investing in Britain’s renewal.”

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