Forecast: U.S. Hydropower Generation to Decline 14% in 2021 Due to Drought
In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that electricity generation from U.S. hydropower plants will be 14% lower in 2021 than it was in 2020. Extreme and exceptional drought conditions have been affecting much of the western United States, especially California and states in the Pacific Northwest, which are home to the majority of U.S. hydropower capacity.
The Pacific Northwest’s Columbia River is the fourth-largest river in the United States by volume. Its watershed, the Columbia River Basin, covers large parts of four states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.
In 2020, hydropower plants in these states generated 136 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, representing 54% of U.S. hydropower generation that year.
After dry conditions and a record-breaking heat wave affected large parts of the Columbia River Basin this summer, drought emergencies were declared in counties across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
The dry conditions have reduced reservoir storage levels in some Columbia River Basin states. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center (NWCC), reservoir storage in Montana and Washington is at or above average. However, as of the end of August 2021, reservoir storage in Oregon measured 17% of capacity, less than half its historical average capacity of 47%. Idaho reported reservoir storage at 34% of capacity, lower than its historical average capacity of 51%.
In March and April of 2021, hydropower generation in both Washington and Oregon was 10% below the 10-year (2011–20) range. Over the summer, hydropower generation in these states moved back within the 10-year range.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
California contains 13% of the United States’ hydropower capacity; in 2020, hydropower plants in California produced 7% of the country’s hydropower generation. However, the state is experiencing intense and widespread drought this year, which has reduced water supply and hydropower generation. The reservoir at Lake Oroville, the second-largest reservoir in California, hit a historic low of 35% in August 2021, prompting the Edward Hyatt Power Plant to go offline for the first time since 1967. So far this year, hydropower generation in California has been on the lower end of its 10-year range.
In STEO, we forecast electricity generation for electricity market regions instead of state geographical boundaries. The latest STEO expects hydropower generation in the Northwest electricity region, which includes the Columbia River Basin and parts of other Rocky Mountain states, to total 120 billion kWh in 2021, a 12% decline from 2020. We expect hydropower generation in the California electricity region to be 49% lower in 2021 than in 2020, at 8.5 billion kWh.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
Principal contributors: Lindsay Aramayo, Tyler Hodge
Courtesy of Today in Energy
Featured graph by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook and Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory and the U.S. Drought Monitor.
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Tesla’s Q2 results are in, and they are way, way down from Q2 of 2024. At the same time, Nissan seems to be in serious trouble and the first-ever all-electric Dodge muscle car is getting recalled because its dumb engine noises are the wrong kind of dumb engine noises. All this and more on today’s deeply troubled episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got an awesome article from Micah Toll about a hitherto unexplored genre of electric lawn equipment, a $440 million mining equipment deal, and a list of incompetent, corrupt, and stupid politicians who voted away their constituents’ futures to line their pockets.
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OpenAI is distancing itself from Robinhood‘s latest crypto push after the trading platform began offering tokenized shares of OpenAI and SpaceX to users in Europe.
“These ‘OpenAI tokens’ are not OpenAI equity,” OpenAI wrote on X. “We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it.”
The company said that “any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval — we did not approve any transfer,” and warned users to “please be careful.”
Robinhood announced the launch Monday from Cannes, France, as part of a broader product showcase focused on tokenized equities, staking, and a new blockchain infrastructure play. The company’s stock surged above $100 to hit a new all-time high following the news.
“These tokens give retail investors indirect exposure to private markets, opening up access, and are enabled by Robinhood’s ownership stake in a special purpose vehicle,” a Robinhood spokesperson said in response to the OpenAI post.
Robinhood offered 5 euros worth of OpenAI and SpaceX tokens to eligible EU users who signed up to trade stock tokens by July 7. The assets are issued under the EU’s looser investor restrictions via Robinhood’s crypto platform.
“This is about expanding access,” said Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s SVP and GM of crypto. “The goal with tokenization is to let anyone participate in this economy.”
The episode highlights the dynamic between crypto platforms seeking to democratize access to financial products and the companies whose names and equity are being represented on-chain
U.S. users cannot access these tokens due to regulatory restrictions.
Despite the warnings, BYD continues introducing new discounts. On Wednesday, BYD’s luxury off-road brand began offering over 50% Huawei’s smart driving tech.
BYD introduces new discounts on smart driving tech
After BYD cut prices again in May, the China Automobile Manufacturers Association (CAMA) warned that the ultra-low prices are “triggering a new round of price war panic.”
Although they didn’t single out BYD, it was pretty obvious. BYD slashed prices across 22 of its vehicles by up to 34%, triggering several automakers to follow suit in China.
BYD’s cheapest EV, the Seagull, typically starts at about $10,000 (66,800 yuan). After the price cuts, the Seagull is listed at under $8,000 (55,800 yuan).
It doesn’t look like China’s EV leader plans to slow down anytime soon. Fang Cheng Bao, BYD’s luxury off-road brand, introduced new discounts on Huawei’s smart driving tech on Wednesday.
The limited-time offer cuts the price of Huawei’s Qiankun Intelligent Driving High-end Function Package to just 12,000 yuan ($1,700).
Buyers who order the smart driving tech in July will save over 50% compared to its typical price of 32,000 yuan ($4,500).
Earlier this year, Fang Chang Bao launched the Tai 3, its most affordable vehicle, starting at 139,800 yuan ($19,300). The Tai 3 is about the size of the Tesla Model Y, but costs about half as much.
The Tai 3 will spearhead a new sub-brand of electric SUVs following the more premium Bao 8 and Bao 5 hybrid SUVs.
BYD’s luxury off-road brand sold 18,903 vehicles last month, up 50% from May and 605% compared to last year. Fang Cheng Bao has now sold over 10,000 vehicles for three consecutive months.
The Chinese EV giant sold 382,585 vehicles in total in June, an increase of 12% from last year. In the first half of the year, BYD’s cumulative sales reached over 2.1 million, a YOY increase of 33%.
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