In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that electricity generation from U.S. hydropower plants will be 14% lower in 2021 than it was in 2020. Extreme and exceptional drought conditions have been affecting much of the western United States, especially California and states in the Pacific Northwest, which are home to the majority of U.S. hydropower capacity.
The Pacific Northwest’s Columbia River is the fourth-largest river in the United States by volume. Its watershed, the Columbia River Basin, covers large parts of four states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.
In 2020, hydropower plants in these states generated 136 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, representing 54% of U.S. hydropower generation that year.
After dry conditions and a record-breaking heat wave affected large parts of the Columbia River Basin this summer, drought emergencies were declared in counties across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
The dry conditions have reduced reservoir storage levels in some Columbia River Basin states. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center (NWCC), reservoir storage in Montana and Washington is at or above average. However, as of the end of August 2021, reservoir storage in Oregon measured 17% of capacity, less than half its historical average capacity of 47%. Idaho reported reservoir storage at 34% of capacity, lower than its historical average capacity of 51%.
In March and April of 2021, hydropower generation in both Washington and Oregon was 10% below the 10-year (2011–20) range. Over the summer, hydropower generation in these states moved back within the 10-year range.
California contains 13% of the United States’ hydropower capacity; in 2020, hydropower plants in California produced 7% of the country’s hydropower generation. However, the state is experiencing intense and widespread drought this year, which has reduced water supply and hydropower generation. The reservoir at Lake Oroville, the second-largest reservoir in California, hit a historic low of 35% in August 2021, prompting the Edward Hyatt Power Plant to go offline for the first time since 1967. So far this year, hydropower generation in California has been on the lower end of its 10-year range.
In STEO, we forecast electricity generation for electricity market regions instead of state geographical boundaries. The latest STEO expects hydropower generation in the Northwest electricity region, which includes the Columbia River Basin and parts of other Rocky Mountain states, to total 120 billion kWh in 2021, a 12% decline from 2020. We expect hydropower generation in the California electricity region to be 49% lower in 2021 than in 2020, at 8.5 billion kWh.
Renewables continued to dominate fossil fuels on price in 2024, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The big takeaway: Clean energy is the cheapest power around – by a wide margin. So it’s pretty bad business that the biggest grid upgrade project in US history just got kneecapped by Trump’s Department of Energy to stop the “green scam.”
On average, solar power was 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel in 2024, and onshore wind was 53% cheaper. Onshore wind held its spot as the most affordable new source of electricity at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour, with solar close behind at $0.043/kWh.
IRENA’s report says global renewables added 582 gigawatts (GW) of capacity last year, which avoided about $57 billion in fossil fuel costs. That’s not a small dent. Even more impressive: 91% of all new renewable power projects built in 2024 were cheaper than any new fossil fuel option.
Technological innovation, strong supply chains, and economies of scale are driving the cost advantage. Battery prices are helping too: IRENA says utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) are now 93% cheaper than they were in 2010, with prices averaging $192/kWh in 2024.
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But it’s not all smooth sailing. The report flags short-term cost pressures from trade tensions, material bottlenecks, and rising costs in some regions. North America and Europe feel more squeezed than others due to permitting delays, limited grid capacity, and higher system costs.
Meanwhile, countries in Asia, Africa, and South America could see faster cost drops thanks to stronger learning rates and abundant solar and wind resources.
One big challenge is financing. In developing countries, high interest rates and perceived investor risk inflate the levelized cost of electricity of renewables. For example, wind power generation costs were about the same in Europe and Africa last year ($0.052/kWh), but financing made up a much larger share of project costs in Africa. IRENA estimates the cost of capital was just 3.8% in Europe but 12% in Africa.
And even if projects are affordable to build, many are getting stuck in grid connection queues or stalled by slow permitting. Those “integration costs” are now a major hurdle, especially in fast-growing G20 and emerging markets.
Tech is helping with some of that – hybrid solar-wind-storage setups and AI-powered tools are improving grid performance and project efficiency. But digital infrastructure and grid modernization still lag in many places, holding renewables back.
“Renewables are rising, the fossil fuel age is crumbling,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But leaders must unblock barriers, build confidence, and unleash finance and investment.”
IRENA’s bottom line is that the economics of renewables are stronger than ever, but to keep the momentum going, governments and markets need to reduce risks, streamline permitting, and invest in grids.
Electrek’s Take
Speaking of unblocking barriers and investment, the opposite just happened today in Trump World. The Department of Energy just canceled a $4.9 billion conditional loan commitment for the 800-mile Grain Belt Express Phase 1 transmission project, the biggest transmission line in US history.
It’s a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line connecting Kansas wind farms across four states. It will connect four grids, improving reliability. It will be able to power 50 data centers and create 5,500 jobs. Phase 1 is due to start next year.
The new grid will also connect all forms of energy, not just renewables, and it’s super pathetic that Invenergy had to stoop to put up a map on the project’s home page today showing how it will transmit fossil fuels, the “existing dispatchable generation source,” and felt it had to leave renewables off the map entirely. Sorry, Kansas wind farms, you get no mention because this administration doesn’t like you.
Chicago-based Invenergy plans to build the 5 GW Grain Belt Express in phases from Kansas to Illinois. The company says the project will save customers $52 billion in energy costs over 15 years. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) complained to Trump about the project, calling it a “green scam,” and got the government loan canceled based on a lie, claiming it would cost taxpayers “billions.” This was Invenergy’s response on X:
This is bizarre. Senator Hawley is attempting to kill the largest transmission infrastructure project in U.S. history, which is already approved by all four states and is aligned with the President’s energy dominance agenda. Senator Hawley is trying to deprive Americans of… pic.twitter.com/ZLwTNUGZxA
As usual, Trump was swayed by the last person in the room, and Hawley shot an entire region in the foot when an upgraded grid and more renewables are needed more than ever. Hopefully, this project can continue despite the ignorant shortsightedness coming from the Republicans (who ironically released an AI Action Plan today).
It beggars belief that this political party is this isolated from the rest of the world – well, besides our besties Iran, Libya, and Yemen, who aren’t part of the Paris Agreement either – and being that the US is the world’s No 2 polluter, the world will suffer for its arrogance.
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Earnings are down 23% on falling electric vehicle sales and lower margins, but Tesla’s stock is not crashing because CEO Elon Musk is promising a return to earnings growth through autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
We previously reported on how Tesla’s Robotaxi effort is a major shift in strategy for Tesla, which has been promising unsupervised self-driving in its customer vehicles for years.
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Instead, the Robotaxi service consists of an internal fleet operating within a geo-fenced area, currently only in Austin, Texas, and powered by teleoperation and in-car supervisors with a finger on a kill switch at all times.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”
He added that he believes that regulatory approval will be the biggest hurdle, even though Tesla’s current service requires a Tesla employee in each car, which is a major hurdle to scaling.
Musk and Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of self-driving, both claimed that the Bay Area will be the first market where Tesla plans to expand its Robotaxi service. However, Elluswamy added that the program will initially have a driver in the driver’s seat.
This is laughable. Who believes that? How can Elon say that with a straight face when Tesla only has a joke of a system that requires supervision at all times?
For context, Tesla currently only operates in a little over half of Austin, Texas. Here’s the list of all the metro areas Tesla would need to launch Robotaxi by the end of the year to cover half of the US population:
Rank
Metro Area
Population
Cumulative Total
1
New York
19.15 M
19.15 M
2
Los Angeles
12.68 M
31.83 M
3
Chicago
9.04 M
40.87 M
4
Houston
6.89 M
47.76 M
5
Dallas–Fort Worth
6.73 M
54.49 M
6
Miami
6.37 M
60.86 M
7
Atlanta
6.27 M
67.13 M
8
Philadelphia
5.86 M
72.99 M
9
Washington, DC
5.60 M
78.59 M
10
Phoenix
4.83 M
83.42 M
11
Boston
4.40 M
87.82 M
12
Seattle
3.58 M
91.40 M
13
Detroit
3.54 M
94.94 M
14
San Diego
3.37 M
98.31 M
15
San Francisco
3.36 M
101.67 M
16
Tampa
3.04 M
104.71 M
17
Minneapolis–St. Paul
2.62 M
107.33 M
18
St. Louis
2.80 M
110.13 M
19
Denver
2.99 M
113.12 M
20
Baltimore
2.83 M
115.95 M
21
Orlando
2.76 M
118.71 M
22
Charlotte
2.75 M
121.46 M
23
San Antonio
2.60 M
124.06 M
24
Austin
2.42 M
126.48 M
25
Pittsburgh
2.43 M
128.91 M
26
Sacramento
2.42 M
131.33 M
27
Las Vegas
2.32 M
133.65 M
28
Cincinnati
2.26 M
135.91 M
29
Kansas City
2.19 M
138.10 M
30
Columbus
2.14 M
140.24 M
31
Cleveland
2.16 M
142.40 M
32
Indianapolis
2.12 M
144.52 M
33
San José
1.99 M
146.51 M
34
Virginia Beach–Norfolk
1.76 M
148.27 M
35
Providence
1.68 M
149.95 M
36
Milwaukee
1.57 M
151.52 M
37
Jacksonville
1.60 M
153.12 M
38
Raleigh–Durham
1.45 M
154.57 M
39
Nashville
1.43 M
156.00 M
40
Oklahoma City
1.42 M
157.42 M
41
Richmond
1.30 M
158.72 M
42
Louisville
1.28 M
160.00 M
43
Salt Lake City
1.26 M
161.26 M
44
New Orleans
1.23 M
162.49 M
45
Hartford
1.20 M
163.69 M
46
Buffalo
1.11 M
164.80 M
47
Birmingham
1.10 M
165.90 M
This is ridiculous. The lies are becoming increasingly larger and more brazen. We know what that means.
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Tesla claims to have produced the “first builds” of its new “more affordable” electric car models, which are expected to be stripped-down versions of the Model 3 and Model Y.
Since last year, Tesla has discussed launching “more affordable models” based on its existing Model 3/Y vehicle platform in the first half of 2025.
We continue to expand our vehicle offering, including first builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025.
Now, the automaker talks about launching the vehicle “in 2025” and again claims to have stuck to its “1H2025” timeline with the “initial production”:
“Plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track, including initial production of a more affordable model in 1H25.”
There’s confusion in the Tesla community around Tesla’s upcoming “affordable” vehicles because CEO Elon Musk falsely denied a report last year about Tesla’s “$25,000” EV model being canceled.
The facts are that Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla” in early 2024. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.
Instead, Musk noticed that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as the Company faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicles program based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.
We previously reported that these electric vehicles will likely look very similar to Model 3 and Model Y.
In recent months, several other media reports reinforced this, and Tesla all but confirmed it during its latest earnings call, when it stated that it is “limited in how different vehicles can be when built on the same production lines.”
The vehicle is expected to be the “stripped-down” Model Y, which will feature lesser material, fewer features, and possibly be slightly smaller.
It is rumored to start at around $35,000.
The Model Y currently starts at $45,000 in the US before any incentive.
Electrek’s Take
I previously speculated that Tesla might wait to launch the stripped-down, cheaper models in the US until after Q3 to take full advantage of the demand that will be pulled forward due to the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit starting in Q4.
Things are currently aiming in that direction.
Ultimately, I think it will help Tesla increase volumes slightly, but there will be significant cannibalization of its existing lineup. I predict that it will not compensate for the decrease in sales.
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