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There are just two weeks to go in the 2021 MLB regular season and we are pumped.

There’s a thrilling National League West race raging between baseball’s two best teams, the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The wild-card races are crowded in both leagues, with three American League East teams — the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays — front and center. And then there are the players looking to put the finishing touches on — or make a late push for — each of the postseason awards, from MVP to Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.

So what has us most excited about these final 14 days? Which teams have the most at stake? Which end-of-season storylines aren’t getting as much attention as they deserve? In short: How will it all shake out as September turns into October?

We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to answer those questions and more as we get set for some of the biggest baseball games of the year so far. Next stop: the playoffs!


What are you most excited about in the final two weeks of the regular season?

Doolittle: There are some fun races for playoff slots and seeds, but I’m actually more amped for the stretch run on the AL hitting leaderboards than anything. Can Salvador Perez become the first primary catcher and Kansas City Royal to hit 50 homers? Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. catch Perez and Jose Abreu in the RBI column and win the Triple Crown? Can Shohei Ohtani become the first true two-way player to lead a league in homers since Babe Ruth? I find these are the things I keep checking in on as each night’s games play out.

Gonzalez: The AL wild-card race. This was basically a three-way tie between the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays when Friday began, and a couple of critical head-to-head matches remain. The Red Sox face the Yankees this weekend and the Blue Jays play the Yankees next week, but every game these teams play moving forward will feature high stakes. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray and so many other stars that make up these supremely talented rosters will be playing in pressure-packed moments down the stretch, and nothing is more fun than that. The AL East is a juggernaut, and it’s only fitting that three of its teams will advance into the postseason. The question is: Which one will not?

Rogers: The NL wild-card race. If the St. Louis Cardinals beat out both the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, that will be quite something. And it should cost Jayce Tingler his job. The Cardinals had as many injuries to their starting staff as the Padres did but held the line while getting healthy. The way to do that, with a less talented roster due to injuries, is to beat the bad teams. Entering the weekend, the Padres were just 40-39 against minus-.500 teams. The Cardinals were 50-31. Those numbers have nothing to do with the difference between the two divisions the teams reside in.

Schoenfield: The Phillies’ four-game winning streak ended Sunday and the Braves’ four-game losing streak did, too, but Atlanta’s five-game lead has suddenly shrunk to a two-game lead. That’s exciting, but my preference remains the NL West race, where the Giants and Dodgers keep playing at an unbelievably high level. They’re done playing one another, so this is a classic scoreboard-watching race. Yes, the loser still gets the wild card, but both teams want to avoid that play-in game. Everybody has an opinion on whether they like or hate the wild card, but this is a reminder of why finishing in first is so important and why a great division race is still the best baseball has to offer.

Which team has the most at stake?

Doolittle: The Yankees. It’s a combination of factors: title drought, payroll, aggressiveness at the trade deadline, preseason expectation and the glare of New York itself. Even though it would be a wild-card berth, playing on into the postseason would stave off a lot of grief for that organization. Given that missing out on a wild-card slot likely means a fourth-place finish in this year’s AL East, the calls for sweeping change would be blaring if that happens.

Gonzalez: The Yankees, a team with the second-highest payroll in the sport and consistently the highest expectations. They doubled down in July, parting with prospects to acquire Anthony Rizzo in his final months before free agency. Missing out on the postseason wouldn’t just be a disappointment; it would trigger serious questions about the makeup of this roster and how it needs to evolve in order to seriously contend again. And there are no easy answers there.

Rogers: The Padres. Jayce Tingler and his players have been too focused on reeling off a big win streak instead of taking it one game at a time. Perhaps they got down on themselves once the division became out of reach. They should really be down if they’re sitting at home while the Dodgers play the Reds or Cardinals in the wild-card game. The latter team was ready to pack in the season when it traded for starters Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, but time was on the Cardinals’ side and they have taken advantage. Heads should roll in San Diego if the Padres don’t make it. You can’t say the same about Cincinnati or St. Louis. The Yankees have to be 1a in this discussion.

Schoenfield: Another vote for the Yankees. There are kids who just finished their Little League careers who have never seen the Yankees in a World Series. Given the preseason expectations and the recent run of crushing playoff disappointments — the Game 5 American League Division Series loss to the Rays in 2020 with Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Jose Altuve home run in the 2019 American League Championship Series, the 4-0 shutout loss in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS — a World Series-less season, let alone one without a playoff appearance, could lead to Brian Cashman rejiggering the roster, the manager, and the coaching staff.

Which storyline isn’t getting as much attention as it should?

Doolittle: I wouldn’t say that this hasn’t gotten any attention, but however much it’s garnered, it’s not enough: What Max Scherzer has done for the Dodgers is beyond unreal. With his seven shutout innings at Cincinnati on Sept. 18, Max Scherzer owns a 0.78 ERA over nine starts with the Dodgers. That is the best nine-start stretch of his big-league career, besting a run he had in 2019 for the Nationals that ended on July 6 of that season. Scherzer was a first-ballot Hall of Famer before the trade — an assertion that I don’t think many would dispute. Despite that fact, he dropped into a high-stakes division race and launched the most dominant stretch of pitching in his career. He’s been so good that it’s almost frightening to watch him work. He is just that dominant.

Gonzalez: Bryce Harper and Fernando Tatis Jr. are seemingly hashing it out for the NL MVP, but Juan Soto has been amazing for a flailing Nationals team. He has an absurd .525 on-base percentage since the All-Star break and owns a .990 OPS for the season, trailing only Harper and Guerrero. He’s doing this in his age-22 season, after batting .351/.490/.695 through the shortened 2020 season. Those Ted Williams comps don’t seem so farfetched.

Rogers: Houston’s dominance. As great as the Rays are, and as hot as the Blue Jays have been, it’s the Astros who have the best run differential in the American League. They’ve been in first place seemingly forever and every time Oakland or even Seattle has made a run, the Astros have done the same. Here’s the scariest stat for playoff opponents: Entering the weekend, Houston was 43-31 against plus-.500 teams. That’s a better win percentage than the Rays, Giants and Dodgers have.

Schoenfield: The Brewers have been so far out in front of the NL Central for so long that, perhaps aside from Corbin Burnes, they haven’t received much attention as they deserve. No, their run differential isn’t as impressive as that of the Giants/Dodgers/Astros/Rays/Blue Jays, but this is a team built for October, with the terrific trio of Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, possibly the most dominant closer in the game in Josh Hader plus the ability to mix and match Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and a deep bullpen. They need to get Willy Adames back and healthy for the postseason, but this team can win the first World Series in franchise history behind its pitching-and-defense formula.

Will any races be decided on the final day? Will there be any ties?

Doolittle: Both seem like strong possibilities, if only because of the cluster of teams competing for wild-card spots in both leagues, not to mention the neck-and-neck division title race between the Giants and Dodgers plus the suddenly hot race in the NL East with the Phillies and Braves. In the AL, you’ve got a five-team cluster for two spots in the wild-card race — all five are within four games of each other in the loss column. In the NL, you’ve got four teams within four games of each other competing for one spot. The Cardinals showed this weekend how quickly a team can create some separation, but even in the last two weeks, the outlook in all of these races could transmogrify over the course of a few days.

Gonzalez: I think the Giants and Dodgers are destined to go until the final day, possibly even beyond that. There have been more than 20 instances since the start of August when the Dodgers have won and have not been able to gain any ground on the Giants. It’s only fitting that these two longtime rivals settle it in Game 163.

Rogers: The AL wild card might be decided the day after the final day. So yes, it will come down to that final Sunday — at least.

Schoenfield: Yes, with four races in play — three teams (and maybe the A’s) for two AL wild cards, the second wild card, plus the NL East and NL West — I think there is a 50/50 chance we get some sort of tiebreaker on Monday. If you really want chaos, we get the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Reds and Padres all finishing with the same record, creating a five-way tie for the NL East and the second wild card (and maybe an NL West tiebreaker to boot!). Come on, baseball gods, we need this.

Which team is going to win the NL West?

Doolittle: While I remain steadfast that the Dodgers are better than the Giants, and everyone else for that matter, the simple fact remains that San Francisco has the current edge and has shown zero inclination of regressing to preseason expectations. There are no remaining head-to-head meetings between them, so at this point, the math very slightly favors the Giants. Who am I to argue with math? But… with the lead down to one game, if I think the Dodgers are the better team, then I kind of have to pick them.

Gonzalez: I still say the Dodgers, even though the Giants have led for so long and actually won the season series (just barely). The Dodgers are rolling with a rotation of Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias for these final two weeks; a lineup featuring Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Will Smith; and a bullpen with Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel. From a pure talent perspective, they are impossible to match. And I’ll roll with talent.

Rogers: It’ll be the Dodgers. San Francisco held out as long as they could but L.A. is a machine right now. Championship hangovers usually end during the second half and the Dodgers are no different.

Schoenfield: We keep waiting for the Giants to at least bend, but their second-best month was August (19-9) and their best month has been September (13-5 so far). Those six remaining games against the Padres suddenly don’t look so tough with the Padres self-destructing — and in public, as we saw Saturday night with Manny Machado yelling at Tatis. The Giants hold off the Dodgers, 106 wins to 105.

Who are your wild-card picks and why?

Doolittle: The Dodgers … and three other teams. Want more? Ugh. Fine. In the NL, I still think the Padres are the most talented of the five teams angling for the second wild-card slot, even with their improv rotation. But the Cardinals are the only one of those teams playing winning baseball in September and they just gut-punched the Padres all weekend. Right now, I am taking them. In the AL, geesh, it’s like eating soup with a fork. Every time you think the race is starting to clarify, someone gets hot and someone else goes into the tank. The Yankees are wavering after getting pounded in two home games against Cleveland over the weekend, but they have series left against both Toronto and Boston to make up the gap. I’m going with the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Gonzalez: I’ll pick the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL, and I have the Reds winning the second wild-card spot in the NL. The Padres’ remaining schedule is just too difficult, and their rotation is banged up at the wrong time. If the Reds continue to get what they got from Luis Castillo on Friday, they’re a dangerous team.

Rogers: St. Louis will prevail in the NL. Its final 13 games will come against a Brewers team that’s clinched and a Cubs team that is bad. Counting on wins against teams with less to play for is always dangerous, as the Reds proved by barely winning 1 of 3 against the Pirates recently, but the Cardinals are the Cardinals. They usually prevail when it’s close. Somehow, someway, the Yankees will squeak in with the Blue Jays. And somehow, someway, the Red Sox won’t.

Schoenfield: The Yankees finish with a six-game road trip to Boston and Toronto and then three at home against the Rays. They have no games left against the Orioles. The Red Sox finish with six games against the Orioles and Nationals. The Blue Jays have a four-game series against the Twins and finish with three games at home against the Orioles. I’ll go with Boston and Toronto. In the NL, I’m eliminating the Padres. If the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals and Reds all end up tied, the formula is simple: The Braves play the Phillies for the NL East title while the Cardinals and Reds play to stay in the race. The loser of Braves/Phillies plays the winner of Cardinals/Reds for the wild card. There is no current formula if the Padres are also in that mix. My head hurts.

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Sale returns strong, but Braves fall again to Philly

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Sale returns strong, but Braves fall again to Philly

Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale returned from the 60-day injured list for a strong start Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Sale, a nine-time All-Star, struck out nine and gave up three hits in six innings. His only blemish came on Weston Wilson‘s solo homer in the third.

But Trea Turner hit a two-run single with two outs in the 10th inning to lift the Phillies to a 3-2 win over the Braves.

The reigning National League Cy Young winner, Sale had been out since suffering a fractured left rib cage in June when he dove to field a grounder. He had pitched 4⅔ innings in his third and most recent rehab start at Triple-A last week.

Sale’s return ended a stretch since late July in which all of the Braves’ Opening Day starters had been on the injured list. Atlanta has stumbled to a 61-75 record and is set to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

Sale, 36, is 5-4 and has a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts this season. He won the pitching Triple Crown in his first season in Atlanta in 2024, finishing with an NL high in wins (18) and strikeouts (225) and a league-low ERA of 2.38.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Where Cal Raleigh’s 50-home run season ranks among all-time surprising power years

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Where Cal Raleigh's 50-home run season ranks among all-time surprising power years

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh blasted his 48th and 49th home runs on Sunday in back-to-back at-bats in the first two innings against the Athletics, breaking Salvador Perez‘s record for most home runs in a season by a catcher. The next night, he became the second switch-hitter with 50 home runs in a season, joining Mickey Mantle in the exclusive club.

While Raleigh’s season hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere — he reached 30 home runs the previous two years — the fact that we’re not even in September yet certainly makes his power exploits even more impressive.

In honor of his record-breaking season, let’s dig into some of the numbers around his 2025 campaign. And with Raleigh now at 50 home runs, we’ll also break down where his season ranks among the most surprising 50-homer seasons in MLB history.


So, is this the greatest power-hitting season ever from a catcher?

If you want to get technical about it, this is open for discussion. Like Perez with the Kansas City Royals in 2021, Raleigh has benefited from some DH time, with nine of his home runs coming as a DH. Perez’s figures were even more extreme, with 15 of his 48 home runs coming as a DH.

The record for home runs while only playing catcher belongs to Javy Lopez, who hit 42 for the Atlanta Braves in 2003 in just 117 games (he hit one more as a pinch-hitter). That was an impressive season for Lopez, who hit .328/.378/.687 with a 1.065 OPS. He fell seven plate appearances short of the 502 needed for official qualification, otherwise his OPS would rank as the second-highest ever for a catcher (behind Mike Piazza’s 1.070 in 1997) and his .687 slugging as the highest ever (Piazza slugged .638 in ’97). (And we would be remiss not to mention Josh Gibson’s hitting heroics in the Negro Leagues, as he topped both those figures multiple times.)

Raleigh leads the majors in home runs, which would put him alongside Johnny Bench as the only catcher to lead the majors if he maintains his lead over Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani. Bench, who topped the majors with 45 home runs in 1970 and 40 in 1972, played 158 games in 1970 and 147 in 1972, occasionally playing other positions when he wasn’t catching in lieu of the option to DH.


Could any other catcher in history have hit this many?

Lopez would have been the obvious candidate. Raleigh will soar past 600 plate appearances; Lopez’s home run rate prorated to 625 plate appearances gets him to 54 home runs. Piazza hit 40 home runs in 1997, but did bat 633 times while playing in 152 games, so you can’t really fudge more than a few extra home runs, even if he had more DH opportunities. Roy Campanella hit 41 for Brooklyn in 1953, batting 590 times while playing 144 games (although starting just 130). Give him the 162-game schedule and some DH starts and maybe he gets close to 50. Todd Hundley is the only other catcher with a 40-homer season, hitting 41 for the 1996 New York Mets in 624 plate appearances.

While Raleigh has slowed down since the All-Star break, especially in the batting average department, his season is also particularly impressive because he’s doing this in a very pitcher-friendly home park. He’s hitting .223/.317/.572 with 24 home runs at home and .269/.385/.614 with 25 home runs on the road. His home run rate is similar, but no doubt he has lost a few home runs to the marine layer in Seattle. To hit 50 home runs in a tough home run park as a catcher playing almost every game is a stunning accomplishment.


Are there any other records Raleigh can break?

Glad you asked. It feels like the record for home runs by a switch-hitter isn’t getting enough publicity. Mickey Mantle — now that’s a big name — holds the mark with 54 in 1961. Indeed, he is the only other switch-hitter with a 50-homer season, also hitting 52 in 1956. Raleigh is now third on the all-time list, having soared past Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones, who had 45 in their best seasons. He’s projected to surpass that 54 mark, so this could be the next record to fall.

Then there’s the Mariners team record: Ken Griffey Jr. had back-to-back 56-homer seasons in 1997 and ’98. With 31 games left on the Mariners’ schedule, Raleigh has certainly put that total in play as well.


What were the most surprising 50-homer seasons?

Once he hits No. 50, Raleigh will have the 51st season in MLB history with 50 home runs — by 33 different players.

Which of those were most surprising? Obviously, there were a lot of goofy home run totals from the steroid eras, and a couple of those seasons crack our top seven list:

7. Luis Gonzalez, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2001 (57)

Gonzalez topped 30 home runs just one other time in his career (31 in 2000) but hit .325/.429/.688 with 57 home runs and 142 RBIs in the D-backs’ World Series-winning season. The offensive numbers were so extreme in the NL in 2001, however, that Gonzalez finished just third in home runs (behind Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa) and third in the MVP voting.

6. Roger Maris, New York Yankees, 1961 (61)

Maris’ historic season obviously can’t be considered a complete fluke considering he hit 39 home runs and won the AL MVP Award in 1960, but breaking Babe Ruth’s home run record of 60 set in 1927 is one of the great achievements in MLB history. That was the year that MLB expanded, and Maris’ teammate Mickey Mantle also hit 54 home runs, while three other American Leaguers hit at least 45.

5. George Foster, Cincinnati Reds, 1977 (52)

Foster had hit 29 home runs in 1976 and would follow up his 1977 MVP season with 40 home runs in 1978, but he hit 30 home runs just one other time (30 in 1979). His ’77 season also stands out because it was the only 50-homer season between Willie Mays in 1965 and Cecil Fielder in 1990. Foster did benefit from a new, livelier ball, after MLB switched its manufacturer from Spalding to Rawlings. The NL batting average increased from .255 to .262 in 1977 and home runs per game increased 47%, from .057 to 0.84.

4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, 2017 (52)

3. Pete Alonso, New York Mets, 2019 (53)

These seasons don’t look so surprising in retrospect, but both were shocking at the time since they occurred in their rookie seasons, with Judge setting a record in 2017 and then Alonso breaking it just two years later. Both were regarded as good prospects — but not great ones. Judge was No. 44 on ESPN’s preseason Top 100 list in 2017 while Alonso was No. 90 in 2019. Judge had hit just 19 home runs in the minors in 2016 (in 93 games), although his raw power was obvious; Alonso had hit 36 in the minors, so at least looked like your more prototypical hitting prospect.

Alonso’s year, in particular, is fascinating because he wasn’t even guaranteed a roster spot entering the season — the Mets had publicly mentioned his defense as a reason he hadn’t been called up in 2018. They also had a crowded field contending for first base in spring training: former top prospect Dominic Smith, Todd Frazier and J.D. Davis (both couldn’t play third base), as well as Jed Lowrie, who the Mets had signed as a free agent but couldn’t play at second base because they had traded for Robinson Cano. Lowrie hurt his left knee in spring training and Frazier was also injured at the start of the season while Alonso had a strong spring, earning the starting job over Smith.

2. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 2010 (54)

Bautista was a 29-year-old journeyman coming off a 13-homer season, so he stunned everyone with this 54-homer season. He had overhauled his swing and started not only hitting the ball in the air more but pulling it much more often (his pull rate improved from 34% to 49%). He would prove it wasn’t a fluke, hitting 43 home runs in 2011 and 40 in 2015.

1. Brady Anderson, Baltimore Orioles, 1996 (50)

Anderson’s season still stands out as one of the fluke home run seasons of all time — his second-highest total was 24 home runs in 1999. Considering he was 32 years old at the time and coming off a 16-homer season, conspiracy theorists attribute his power spike to performance-enhancing drugs, which Anderson has consistently denied he used. Like Bautista, he pulled the ball more than ever that year while also hitting more fly balls. He played through a broken rib the following season and then he played through neck and back issues in 1998, both of which might have affected his power output. But that 50-homer season will live forever.

So where does Raleigh rank?

Probably along the lines of Gonzalez and Foster — a good power hitter having a career season, except Raleigh gets a little extra surprise credit for doing it as a catcher. Of course, we don’t know what he’ll do in the future, although you do wonder if he can keep playing this many games season after season. He has missed just three games all season, including just one since the All-Star break, but with the Mariners battling for both the division title and a wild-card spot, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult for manager Dan Wilson to rest Raleigh. The strikeouts have really piled up in August, including one five-strikeout game and three three-strikeout games, so it feels like he could use a day off or two. For now, the Mariners will hope he can keep grinding and keep hitting home runs.

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Giants reliever Rodriguez opts to have TJ surgery

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Giants reliever Rodriguez opts to have TJ surgery

SAN FRANCISCO — San Francisco Giants All-Star reliever Randy Rodriguez will have season-ending Tommy John surgery, the team said Saturday.

Last weekend, the Giants placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list with a right elbow sprain. The 25-year-old right-hander sought multiple opinions about the injury and was hoping to avoid having surgery before doctors made the recommendation to move forward with the procedure.

“Randy is going to get the surgery,” Giants manager Bob Melvin said before Saturday’s game against Baltimore. “He’s just now deciding on who’s going to do it and what the (timetable) will be.”

Rodriguez had emerged as a valued piece in the Giants’ bullpen this season. He had a 1.78 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings with four saves while helping anchor the back end of San Francisco’s bullpen.

Rodriguez had been the Giants’ primary closer after the team dealt Camilo Doval to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Rodriguez converted four of five save opportunities before getting hurt.

Rodriguez will miss the remainder of this season and possibly most, if not all, of 2026.

“I really don’t know,” Melvin said. “I think that depends on what happens in the surgery and what the doctor will have to say about what he saw.”

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