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Will Britain elect a prime minister people see as weak? This unfortunate question is one Sir Keir Starmer must confront on the eve of his first in-person party conference as Labour leader, however personally painful he finds it.

Can he reverse voters’ first impressions of him by taking on his party in Brighton then imprinting on the nation a vision of a better more prosperous Britain under Labour this week?

Or can other qualities of the Labour leader and his party ensure he is still electable?

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Labour leader attempts conference reset

What seems in little doubt is that is what the public currently think.

Exclusive polling for Sky News by Opinium makes stark reading.

By a two to one margin the public believe Sir Keir is a weak leader, according to polling conducted on Monday to Wednesday of this week, with 47% saying he is weak and 21% saying he is strong. The rest do not know.

Perhaps even more extraordinarily, the poll suggests existing Labour voters are evenly split over Sir Keir’s strength – 39% think he is strong but 37% think weak.

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Pollsters believe that being seen as “weak” by the public ultimately scuppered Theresa May and Gordon Brown, so Sir Keir would be unwise to ignore the finding. But who he should fight, and how, remain big unknowns.

Many Labour MPs are crying out for Sir Keir to show spark and verve when he addresses the faithful on Wednesday.

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After all, he is up against Boris Johnson, who revels in rejecting the qualities Sir Keir espouses, and appears to profit politically from doing so.

The PM is currently successfully dealing with a competent, safe, managerial and cautious opponent with his wild proclamations, fights with the French in Franglais, a speak-first-check-later approach to the facts, a disdain for the law, conventions, courts, judges and elite opinion and an enthusiasm to be on TV bizarrely unmatched by anyone in the Labour Party.

That these qualities prove a vote winner for Mr Johnson have surprised many in Labour and Sir Keir may just be wondering whether anyone will “donnez moi un break”, but this is the reality Labour must deal with.

The Opinium poll also suggests the wider public want inspiration. 39% of voters say he is boring, while just 18% call Sir Keir interesting.

Labour voters are more likely to see him as boring, with 32% who currently vote for his party saying so, against 31% who say he is interesting.

“The public had a good first impression of Starmer, with more saying they had a positive view of him than any opposition leader since Tony Blair last summer,” explains pollster Chris Curtis from Opinium.

“But over the last 12-14 months his popularity has dropped substantially. While voters still see him as someone who is competent and cares about people’s concerns, he is not currently viewed as strong enough to be Britain’s prime minister.”

Sir Keir has a clear two-pronged plan to upend his reputation this week in Brighton, and the leader’s allies talk of him wanting to “turn the page”.

The first prong is to change some internal party rules on the Saturday and Sunday, the second is to flesh out his vision for the country between Monday and Wednesday, culminating in the speech he will make to conclude the conference.

But the rule changes have already run into trouble, and it is not clear whether Sir Keir will have the strength to push them through in the next 36 hours.

His flagship move is to scrap the way future Labour leaders are chosen, abandoning the One Member One Vote system introduced by Ed Miliband which elected Jeremy Corbyn and Sir Keir, and return to the electoral college system used previously.

Neither would have stopped Mr Corbyn’s 2015 election, yet the initiative appears designed to pick a deliberate fight with the Corbyn-supporting left.

It is not entirely clear why, however, there appears to have been a cooler than expected reaction from the unions like Unite, with it unclear whether more pro-Starmer unions like GMB will win the day.

The biggest issue, however, as the row sucks energy and oxygen out of the start of conference, is what it reveals about Sir Keir’s priorities.

Why change the rules governing the selection of his successor at all?

The Labour leadership have done a poor job explaining why this is necessary, with Sir Keir largely avoiding the media this week and Shabana Mahmood, the party’s campaign coordinator, telling me only that it was part of a “wider package of measures” but declining to go into detail why this specific change is so important.

Into this vacuum, the left is coming up with excitable conspiracy theories whether or not some around Sir Keir might try to engineer a vacancy – highly unlikely but nevertheless unhelpful speculation.

Then there is the question of whether Sir Keir can manage to speak to the country, through senior members of his frontbench team on Monday and Tuesday and his own speech on Wednesday.

The first draft of his vision came out on Wednesday night in the 11,500 word Fabian pamphlet about his vision of a contributory society.

Based on reflections from his travel around the country this summer, it suggests he sees a need for more workers’ rights, tougher laws to tackle violence against women and a strong hint that Labour would reintroduce a class size cap.

Presented as a document designed to burnish Sir Keir’s centre ground credentials, it stresses the need for partnership with the private sector and even nods to the legitimate causes of Brexit.

But this needs to be translated into a vision that captivates.

Although hard, it can be done like David Cameron’s speech as Leader of the Opposition in 2006 or Ed Miliband’s Predators v Producers speech of 2011, who were both leaders on the back foot at the time their speeches turned their fortunes around.

The scale of Sir Keir’s challenge can be seen in the hardest to measure metric of all: the silence of people who should be allies.

The Labour leader’s office committed an act of self harm this week, in the face of the energy crisis and run-up to Labour conference, not even able to field frontbench supporters to go on TV and radio to cheer for Sir Keir and his rule changes and attack the government.

Instead it was left to Gordon Brown and John McDonnell to fill the airwaves.

Asked by Kay Burley on Sky News why the absence, Party chairwoman Anneliese Dodds suggested: “I’m sure it was more to do with some kind of logistical issues rather than anything more serious than that.”

Asked in private this week what they make of the operation and preparations for the conference, many have said they don’t disagree but the handling of the last few days felt so chaotic they want to avoid intervening.

“I’m not sure what he’s passionate about,” says one Labour MP who should on paper be one of Sir Keir’s strongest allies.

“I think the rule change is the right thing to do I’m just not going out to bat for it when they’ve cocked up the execution so badly.”

MPs like the former party chairman Ian Lavery are now openly giving odds on Sir Keir being gone by Christmas, giving a one in five chance of this outcome.

If he wants to persuade voters he is indeed a strong leader, Sir Keir needs his allies cheering him on and making that case.

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Rishi Sunak: How Tory MPs can get rid of the prime minister – and who could be in the running to replace him

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Rishi Sunak: How Tory MPs can get rid of the prime minister - and who could be in the running to replace him

Rishi Sunak looks to have seen off his backbenchers – at least for now.

The nascent rebellions have gone quiet in the past few weeks and the Commons is currently in its Easter recess, with MPs returning to Westminster on 15 April.

Time away from parliament normally strengthens – or at least prevents the further collapse – of a prime minister, as MPs disperse back to their constituencies and away from the plot-heavy fug of Westminster.

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But a potential flashpoint is looming – May’s local elections.

A particularly bad performance by the Tories could lead to fresh pressure on the PM’s leadership and prove to be the catalyst for a concrete move to oust Mr Sunak.

Sky News explains how Tory MPs could get rid of the PM and – if they are successful – who would likely be in the running to replace him.

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How to depose a prime minister

The process of removing a Tory leader is governed by the 1922 Committee – also known as the ’22 – a group of backbench Tory MPs.

If a Conservative MP wants a new leader, they write to the head of the ’22 saying they have no confidence in the incumbent.

The chair of the committee is Sir Graham Brady.

Under party rules, 15% of Tory MPs need to write to Sir Graham in order to trigger a vote. Currently, there are 348 MPs, meaning the 15% threshold sits at 53.

There is often lots of speculation about how many letters have been submitted, but the only person who truly knows is Sir Graham himself.

1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady makes a statement outside Parliament after Liz Truss announced her resignation as PM. Pic: PA
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Sir Graham Brady has overseen numerous Tory leadership contests since becoming chair of the 1922 committee in 2010. Pic: PA

When the threshold is met, Sir Graham will make an announcement to the media.

There would then be a vote of all Tory MPs on whether to unseat Mr Sunak. If a majority say they have no confidence in him (50% +1) a leadership contest is triggered.

Mr Sunak would be barred from standing in the subsequent contest.

However, if the leader wins a vote of no confidence, they are then immune from a further such challenge for a year.

This happened with Theresa May in 2018, although she opted to resign a few months later amid continuing struggles to get a Brexit deal passed by MPs.

Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after she survived an attempt by Tory MPs to oust her with a vote of no confidence. Pic: PA
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Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence, but it proved to be a brief respite. Pic: PA

Her successor Boris Johnson also survived a confidence vote of Tory MPs in June 2022, but emerged from the ordeal weakened as a significant number of Conservatives (148, 41%) voted against him.

He announced his resignation a little more than a month later.

Are there any other circumstances in which the PM could go?

Another way Mr Sunak could be ousted is if the so-called “men in grey suits” tell him to step aside and he heeds their advice.

This is when senior Conservative MPs – like Sir Graham – tell the party leader they do not have the support of the party, and should step aside to save the ignominy of the above votes.

Of course, Mr Sunak could decide himself that the game is up and opt to jump before he is potentially pushed, but this is unlikely.

How would the contest pan out?

The exact rules for the contest would be set out by the ’22 after it is triggered.

Nominations for candidates would likely open quickly, with prospective leaders needing the support of a certain number of colleagues to stand.

Once nominations have closed, there would then be rounds of voting among Tory MPs for their preferred new leader. The worst-performing candidate in each ballot would be eliminated, until just two remain.

This pair would then compete for the votes of Conservative Party members, slugging it out to become party leader and prime minister.

This is what happened in the summer of 2022, when Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were left as the last two candidates in the race to succeed Mr Johnson.

How a Conservative leadership contest pans out

They then spent the summer campaigning for votes, with Ms Truss emerging victorious.

However, there have been examples in recent years of truncated contests.

The most recent of which was the second leadership contest of 2022, which Mr Sunak won unopposed after Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out.

In 2016, Tory members also didn’t get a chance to have their say.

Theresa May won both ballots of MPs, but she then became party leader unopposed after rival Andrea Leadsom pulled out in the wake of a controversial newspaper interview she later apologised for.

Will there be an election if there’s a new leader and PM?

In short, no.

Under our parliamentary system, the prime minister is leader of the largest party in the Commons.

If the Tories decide to get rid of Sunak and replace him, there is no legal obligation upon the party or the new leader to seek a fresh mandate from the electorate straight away.

The new PM could decide to call an election soon after taking office anyway, or they could wait it out until January 2025.

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Labour’s Gordon Brown didn’t call an election when he succeeded Sir Tony Blair as PM in 2007, although he did flirt with the idea of a snap poll.

The aforementioned Theresa May did go to the country early, but this was almost a year after she took office. Boris Johnson did call an election within a few months of entering Number 10, winning a big Tory majority in December 2019.

Neither Ms Truss or Mr Sunak opted to call an election on becoming PM, although it should be noted the former didn’t get much of a chance as she was in office for less than six weeks.

Who is likely to be in the running to succeed Sunak if he goes?

Given there is not long before there absolutely has to be an election – January 2025 at the very latest – and the polls suggest the Tories are on course for defeat, you might expect the field of likely contenders to succeed Mr Sunak to be quite narrow.

But a number of names have been suggested as potential replacements if he goes.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has emerged as someone who could look to run for the top job, having called for defence spending to rise to 3% of GDP – something that could win the support of Tory backbenchers.

Grant Shapps, who has also served as transport secretary, previously ran to be Tory leader in 2022.

James Cleverly

The home secretary, who has also served as foreign secretary, is being talked about in moderate Tory circles as someone who could unify the party.

A key part of James Cleverly’s brief as home secretary is the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – something he is said to have reservations about in private, despite his denials.

He caused controversy last year – and was forced to apologise – after making a joke about date rape which he admitted may have undermined the government’s work to tackle drink spiking.

Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, is seen as the darling of the right and has impressed some in the party with her no-nonsense approach.

One of her strongest advocates is Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary who has also run for leader in the past.

Ms Badenoch ran in the last Tory leadership of 2022 following Mr Johnson’s resignation, in which she was eliminated in the fourth ballot.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has been at the heart of the rumours of a plot to replace Mr Sunak, although the Commons leader has insisted she is “getting on” with her job.

She has been mooted as a “compromise” candidate for those on the rightF because of her Brexit credentials and her performances in the Commons.

She is viewed as one of the more centrist figures in the party, but current polling suggests she could lose her seat at the next election.

Priti Patel

Former home secretary Priti Patel, who now sits on the backbenches, was a key torchbearer for the right before she was eclipsed by Suella Braverman following the demise of Mr Johnson.

She is seen as flying below the radar but making important interventions on tax, for example.

Ms Patel is seen as one the more traditional right-wing MPs in the party, compared with her successor Ms Braverman, who holds appeal with some of the Tory MPs elected in 2019. Her seat of Witham in Essex is also one of the safest in the country.

Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick has held a number of ministerial roles, including as communities secretary, a position he lost in one of Boris Johnson’s reshuffles.

He was originally seen as a Sunak loyalist and was appointed immigration minister, partly to keep Ms Braverman in check.

However, he later hit the headlines when he resigned over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill, saying he could not continue in government when he had such “strong disagreements with the direction of the government’s policy on immigration”.

Suella Braverman

Suella Braverman has cultivated a reputation on the right as someone who is not afraid to voice controversial opinions on immigration and law and order.

She was brought in by Mr Sunak to cater to the right of the party, where she commanded support.

However, her sacking as home secretary over comments that homelessness was a “lifestyle choice” – may have affected her standing among Tory MPs.

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat is regarded highly in the One Nation group of moderate Tory MPs.

He has previously run for Tory leader, but was knocked out of the race early and later threw his support behind Liz Truss.

His recent intervention on defence spending suggests he could decide to run for the top job again.

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Abdul Ezedi: ‘Lefty lawyers’ criticised after documents reveal why Clapham attacker was granted asylum

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Abdul Ezedi: 'Lefty lawyers' criticised after documents reveal why Clapham attacker was granted asylum

A minister has hit out at “credulous clerics” and “lefty lawyers” after documents seen by Sky News revealed how the Clapham chemical attacker Abdul Ezedi was granted asylum after he was baptised.

Science minister Andrew Griffith said Ezedi, who attacked a woman and two children with an alkali in London earlier this year, should not have been able to enter the UK illegally and remain here after being vouched for by a priest.

Home Secretary James Cleverly has summoned the “vast majority” of Christian churches to “relay the potential damage” of “being seen, rightly or wrongly, as acting against the integrity of our asylum system, where Christian conversion has been brought up at appeal”, a source close to him said.

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Minister blames ‘credulous clerics’ and ‘loophole lawyers’

Ezedi, who was from Afghanistan, had twice been refused asylum by the Home Office after arriving in the UK on the back of a lorry in 2016.

The second refusal was overturned by a judge in an appeal hearing in October 2020 because of Ezedi’s claim to have converted to Christianity. A suggestion that he would be at risk of persecution if he returned to Afghanistan was supported by a vicar.

A huge search operation was launched for Ezedi after the attack on 31 January, with CCTV images showing serious injuries to his face. His body was recovered from the River Thames a few weeks later.

Mr Griffith told Kay Burley on Breakfast: “We can’t run an asylum system based on credulous clerics and lefty lawyers.

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“That is why we are fundamentally reforming it.”

Challenged on what he meant by “credulous clerics”, Mr Griffith said: “To be credulous is not to be, you know, diligent and inquiring and accept that this could be something that is being faked for that purpose.

“And we know, we know about this particular case, but we do know that there are loophole lawyers that are grooming people…”

Mr Griffith initially stuck by his use of the word “grooming” before agreeing that “coaching” was a “better word”.

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Abdul Ezedi
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Abdul Ezedi

A source close to the home secretary said the consequences of Ezedi having his asylum case approved were “appalling”.

“That reputational risk is only amplified by the fact some who denied knowledge of Ezedi at the time had in fact known of him within their church, and had supported and vouched for him.”

As well as the documents coming to light, Sky News has also obtained pictures of Ezedi, who was also a convicted sex offender, being baptised in church.

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Mr Griffith highlighted how Ezedi had not originally claimed asylum on the grounds of his religion and said the government’s Safety of Rwanda Bill – which will see certain migrants deported to the east African country – would help prevent similar cases arising again.

Labour’s shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The home secretary must explain why his department failed to remove Ezedi from the UK in the two years after his first asylum claim was rejected – particularly after he was convicted of sexual offences.”

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Record number of migrants cross English Channel so far this year

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Record number of migrants cross English Channel so far this year

A record number of migrants have crossed the English Channel so far this year, according to provisional Home Office figures.

Some 4,644 have made the journey in 2024 – a record for the first three months of a calendar year.

Of the total, 338 people arrived in the UK in seven boats on Tuesday.

Politics latest: New figures spell trouble for one of Rishi Sunak’s pledges

The latest data exceeds the previous record high figure of 4,548 for January to March 2022 and had already surpassed the 3,793 arrivals in the first few months of last year.

It comes after Rishi Sunak continued to insist his plan to “stop the boats” was working despite crossings in 2024 tracking ahead of recent years.

A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dover, Kent, from a Border Force vessel following a small boat incident in the Channel. Picture date: Tuesday March 26, 2024.
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A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dover, Kent, on 26 March. Pic: PA

Last week, Downing Street declared that the government was dealing with a “migration emergency” after a record day for crossings.

Some 514 people made the journey in 10 boats on 20 March, making this the busiest day since the start of the year.

The “stop the boats” pledge was one of the prime minister’s five priorities that he set out at the start of 2023, in which he said he would “pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”.

In keeping with this, last year a total of 29,437 migrants arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel, down 36% on a record 45,774 arrivals in 2022.

But figures from this year show that so far, crossings are 23% higher than the same time in 2023, and 12% higher than the same time in 2022, according to analysis of government data by the PA news agency.

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Home Office launches social media ads in Vietnam to deter small boat migrants
Video appears to show French police using aggressive tactics

The government’s Rwanda Bill also remains stuck in parliamentary limbo after a series of further defeats in the Lords, with MPs not scheduled to debate it again until after Westminster returns from its Easter break.

‘Time to get a grip’

Reacting to the figures on Wednesday, Labour said it was “time to get a grip and restore order to the border”.

Stephen Kinnock, shadow immigration minister, said: “Despite all the evidence to the contrary, Rishi Sunak keeps on telling the British people that small boat arrivals are coming down and his promise to stop the boats remains on track.

“Can he not see what is happening from inside his No 10 bunker, or does he think we can’t see it for ourselves?

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‘Aggressive tactics’ used on boats

“Either way, it’s time to get a grip and restore order to the border.”

He said a Labour government would strengthen border security, crush smuggling gangs, clear the asylum backlog, end hotel use and set up a new returns and enforcement unit.

In its latest statement on small boat crossings, the Home Office said: “The unacceptable number of people who continue to cross the Channel demonstrates exactly why we must get flights to Rwanda off the ground as soon as possible.

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“We continue to work closely with French police who are facing increasing violence and disruption on their beaches as they work tirelessly to prevent these dangerous, illegal and unnecessary journeys.

“We remain committed to building on the successes that saw arrivals drop by more than a third last year, including tougher legislation and agreements with international partners, in order to save lives and stop the boats.”

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