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Here’s an interesting coincidence. This morning, I was reading the latest email from Bloomberg Green about how Europe is struggling with high energy prices right now and has to make a decision — build more unnatural gas capacity or install more renewable energy. It’s a question fraught with weighty political considerations.

Then I came across an article in Renew Economy about how South Australia has not lost a single hour of electricity due to load shedding since 2018. In the four years prior to that, its energy grid shed 7 million hours of electricity. The difference? South Australia has made a major commitment to renewable energy and grid scale battery storage since the catastrophic power outage that hit the state in 2016.

Energy analyst Simon Holmes à Court tells Renew Economy the blackout “was seen by many as the end to the state’s — and Australia’s — renewables ambitions.” Instead, it marked the beginning of the renewable energy and battery storage miracle in South Australia.

Dan van Holst Pellekaan, South Australia’s energy minister, said this week, “Five years ago South Australia was plunged into a statewide blackout that put lives at risk, inflicted immense damage on our economy, and made us the laughing stock of the nation. Today South Australia has the best performing electricity grid in the nation as the Marshall government’s energy policies have strengthened what was a fragile, unstable, and highly vulnerable electricity network.”

The blackout was triggered by strong storms that toppled several transmission towers and three transmission links. It quickly became a political football and an ideological battleground between those who were in favor of renewables and those who opposed them.

It amplified the “when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine” meme, but far from putting a stop to renewables in South Australia, those attacks ensured that more work was done to underpin the massive rollout of large-scale wind and solar that followed.

In the past 12 months, South Australia can boast of being a world leader in renewables. Today it gets 62% of its electricity from wind and solar. At the time of the blackout, that number stood at 48%. It leads the world in rooftop solar, which could supply 100% of the state’s electricity by the end of this year. That is unheard of in a gigawatt-scale grid, Renew Economy says.

South Australia boasts new resources, including three big grid-scale batteries — at Hornsdale, Lake Bonney, and Dalrymple North. It also has several large-scale virtual power plants and new synchronous condensers that, in conjunction with those batteries, provide critical grid services that were once delivered by coal and gas.

The state is adding even more wind and solar capacity, including the country’s biggest wind and solar hybrid project at Port Augusta, and has a huge pipeline of new wind, solar, battery and hydrogen projects that will be unlocked by the new transmission link to New South Wales.

The Liberal government has a stated target of reaching “net 100 per cent renewables” by 2030, but is likely to get there well before then. It is looking to produce five times the state’s grid demand from renewables in the future in order to make renewable hydrogen and become a renewable export superpower.

Image credit: Renew Economy.

Van Holst Pellekaan noted that South Australia is the only state in the country to avoid forced outages since 2018. By comparison, the two Australian states with the greatest dependence on coal-fired generating stations — Queensland and New South Wales — have suffered the most load shedding in recent years. And still the naysayers at the state and federal level continue their cynical attacks on renewables.

In actuality, says Simon Holmes à Cou, the 2016 blackout turned out to be merely a bump in the road and a warning to the country’s energy regulator and the other states to raise their renewable energy game and get on with decarbonizing the grid.

“South Australians were let down by the former Labor Government’s chaotic energy policies that resulted in us having some of the most unreliable and expensive electricity in the world,” says van Holst Pellekaan. “The Marshall government has made over two dozen substantive interventions to get energy security back under control since coming to government.

“What makes this achievement even more extraordinary is that the Marshall government has delivered a $303 reduction for the average household after bills went up $477 under the last two years of Labor. (Emphasis added.) “And we still have more benefits on the way for South Australian via Project EnergyConnect, the interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales.

The Problem In Europe

In today’s Bloomberg Green email, Akshat Rathi says, “Europe’s going through an energy crunch with electricity prices at record highs and fears that the continent may have to shut factories to ensure homes have gas for heat.” Drivers in the UK are panicking about finding petrol for their cars while EV drivers — who typically charge up at home overnight — are driving wherever they please. In a delicious irony, the range anxiety shoe is now on the other foot and interest in electric cars is skyrocketing.

Rashti points out that Europe and the UK are subject to precisely the same polarizing notions about renewable energy that have afflicted Australia for the past 5 years or more.”If Europe’s climate policies are your primary bugbear, for example, you might say something like: ‘Green warriors are on a mission to stamp out prosperity as we know it.’” In fact, The Telegraph ran a story with that exact title recently.

On the other hand, if you’re bound by a climate law as the UK government is, you could double down on the energy transition, Rathi says. “The U.K.’s exposure to volatile global gas prices underscores the importance of our plan to build a strong, home-grown renewable energy sector,” Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary who’s also responsible for energy issues, wrote on Twitter. “In moving away from fossil fuels, we can insulate ourselves.”

It all depends on the larger sentiment around tackling climate change. “If the political context is favorable to the transition, people are going to leverage the crisis to double down on renewables,” says Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “If the political context is against the transition, people are going to use it as a way to have it slow down.”

Public opinion is often influenced by simplified narratives that may not always reflect the facts, Rathi writes. And crises present a ripe opportunity for opinion makers who know that fear sells. [See Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine for more on this topic.] That’s why some UK newspapers have run front page articles about a “Winter of Woe” or how energy bills are headed for a “Catastrophic Price Rise.”

Whether those new arguments take hold, however, depends on the existing base of knowledge and prevailing narratives. “The oil industry’s propaganda around climate issues has been pervasive in the US for decades,” says Carroll Muffett, president of the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law. “While we’ve seen industry efforts in the EU, they’ve never reached the levels of pervasiveness, funding and coordination we’ve seen in the US.”

The Takeaway

The experience of South Australia strongly supports the notion that renewable energy can and will meet all of society’s needs for electricity and do it without adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and at lower cost than thermal generation. And yet, social media influencers seem to be able to take the perfectly obvious and make into a fog of fear and doubt with just a few keystrokes. People simply cannot bring themselves to question something they read online, like the Covid vaccine makes utensils stick to your skin or that Democrats are running a child pornography ring out of a pizza parlor in Georgetown. In the age of artificial stupidity, ignorance is rampant upon the land.

The internet was supposed to bring the collective brain power of all the world’s citizens together to solve the existential problems that beset humanity — war, poverty, hunger, and inequality , for example. Instead, it has fragmented us into smaller and smaller groups where opinions and beliefs overrule common sense. The potential to power all of humanity’s needs is within our grasp but is in danger of slipping through our fingers.

We have one chance to get this right. What is troubling is how many people are willing to throw renewable energy under the bus because of something they saw online posted by an agent of the fossil fuel companies who knows what levers to pull to fill our minds with fear. My old Irish grandmother talked about people with two perfectly good eyes who lacked the power to see what was right in front of them. Unless we rediscover the ability to engage in critical thinking, we are doomed.

 

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

A Wallbox EV charger for electric car is displayed during the “Mondial de l’Auto” at Parc des Expositions on October 15, 2024 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Silicon anodes appear to be leading the way in the race to commercialize next-generation battery technologies for electric vehicles.

The buzz around silicon-based anodes, which promise improved power and faster charging capabilities for EVs, has been growing in recent months — just as the hype around solid-state batteries seems to have fizzled.

It comes as increasing EV sales continue to drive up global battery demand, prompting auto giants to team up with major cell manufacturers on the road to full electrification.

While some OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have inked deals with solid-state battery developers, carmakers such as Mercedes, Porsche and GM have all bet big on silicon anodes to deliver transformative change in the science behind EVs.

A recent report from consultancy IDTechEx described the promise of advanced silicon anode materials as “immense” for improving critical areas of battery performance, noting that this potential hadn’t gone unnoticed by carmakers and key players in the battery industry.

It warned, however, that challenges such as cycle life, shelf life and — perhaps most importantly — cost, need to be addressed for widespread adoption.

Venkat Srinivasan, director of the Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science at the U.S. government’s Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, said silicon anodes appear to have the edge over solid-state batteries.

“If there’s a horse race, silicon does seem to be ahead at least at this moment, but we haven’t commercialized either one of them,” Srinivasan told CNBC via videoconference.

How silicon could enable cheaper EVs, electric flight and more powerful batteries

Srinivasan said five years ago silicon-anode batteries had a calendar life of roughly one year, but recent data appears to show a dramatic improvement in the durability of these materials, with some tests now projecting a three to four-year calendar life.

Unlike the cycle life of a battery, which counts the number of times it can be charged and discharged, the calendar life measures degradation over time. Typically, the calendar life of a battery refers to the period in which it can function at over 80% of its initial capacity, regardless of its usage.

Srinivasan said solid-state batteries, long billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving, still have a long way to go before they can match the recent progress made by silicon anodes.

“That transition still has to be made in solid-state with their metal batteries and that’s why I think you’re hearing from people that, hey, it looks like that promise hasn’t panned out,” Srinivasan said.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t get there. It may happen in a few years. It just means that it feels like today silicon is in a different part of the technology readiness level.”

Silicon anodes vs. solid-state batteries

Analysts say silicon anodes theoretically offer 10 times the energy density as graphite, which are commonly used in battery anodes today. Yet, these same materials typically suffer from rapid degradation when lots of silicon is used.

“Silicon anodes and solid-state batteries are two emerging technology trends in the EV battery market aimed at pushing the boundaries of high-performance battery cells,” Rory McNulty, senior research analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told CNBC via email.

A researcher checks the electromagnet de-ironing machine at the Daejoo Electronic Materials Co. R&D center in Siheung, South Korea, on Thursday, June 22, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

It has typically been the case that better battery performance comes at the cost of longevity or safety, McNulty said. Silicon anodes, for example, are known to swell significantly during charging, which reduces the battery’s longevity.

By comparison, McNulty said solid-state batteries were claimed to greatly improve the stability of the electrolyte to high performance electrode materials, combating the challenges of using high energy density materials such as silicon and lithium.

As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.

Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China.

Georgi Georgiev

Battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets

Japan’s Toyota and Nissan have both said they are aiming to bring solid-state batteries into mass production over the coming years, while China’s SAIC Motor Corp reportedly said in early September that its MG brand would equip cars with solid-state batteries within the next 12 months.

Nonetheless, analysts remain skeptical about when solid-state batteries will actually make it to market.

A strategic opportunity?

“Silicon based anodes promise to be the next-generation technology in the anode field, providing a solution for faster charging,” Georgi Georgiev, battery raw materials analyst at consultancy Fastmarkets, told CNBC via email.

Georgiev said several industry players have been looking into the potential of silicon anodes, from well-established anode suppliers in China and South Korea to new players like Taiwan’s ProLogium and U.S. manufacturers Group14 and Sila Nanotechnologies.

“Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China, which dominates the graphite-based anode supply chains with Chinese anode producers holding 98% of the global anode market for batteries,” Georgiev said.

“However, there are significant technical challenges going to 100% silicon anode such as silicon expansion affecting the longevity of the batteries and currently there are several routes to produce silicon anodes,” he added.

A FEV x ProLogium Technology Co. 100% silicon composite anode next-generation battery at the Paris Motor Show in Paris, France, on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium debuted the world’s first fully silicon anode battery at the Paris Motor Show last month, saying it’s new fast-charging battery system not only surpassed traditional lithium-ion batteries in performance and charging efficiency but also “critical industry challenges.”

ProLogium, citing test data, said it’s 100% silicon anode battery could charge from 5% to 60% in just 5 minutes, and reach 80% in 8.5 minutes. It described the advancement as an “unmatched achievement in the competitive EV market,” which will help to reduce charging times and extend the range of EVs.

Fastmarkets’ Georgiev said a big question mark over the commercialization of silicon anodes is the cost of production and whether any of the major silicon-anode producers “could produce material at scale with a consistent quality and at a competitive price — [a] major requirements of OEMs.”

“At this stage silicon anodes are used more as an additive to graphite-based anodes and in the years to come we expect to see increase of silicon share in anode, but in combination with graphite, while 100% silicon anodes will take longer time to enter the mass market,” he added.

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal

Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters

Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.

The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.

The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.

The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”

Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.

The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.

Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.

The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.

The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.

OPEC chief says delayed December output hike is 'nothing unusual'

“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”

The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!

Today’s episode is the first with our new title sponsor, BLUETTI – a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems.

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New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonusLucid proves than an EV company can keep its promises while Xiaomi teams up with Chevrolet and Honda to prove – at least conceptually – that records are made to be broken. audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

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