The government’s coronavirus furlough scheme ends today after supporting millions of workers during the pandemic.
Ministers say the wages of more than 11 million jobs were subsidised for at least some of the scheme’s duration, at a cost of about £70bn.
There is now uncertainty over the almost one million people still thought to be on the scheme at the end of September, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates.
Meanwhile, job vacancies in the UK have hit a record of more than a million, according to recent ONS data, with openings in the hospitality and transport sectors up more than 75% in three months.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke told Sky News: “There is a lot of opportunity out there for people now. There’s never an easy moment to end these measures.
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“They’ve been hugely important but it is also time to recognise that we are now, thankfully, out of the teeth of this pandemic… and we’re in a situation where normal opportunity is back out there for people to embrace.”
But economists say there is likely to be a rise in unemployment due to new redundancies, despite the fact some may be able to find work in recovering sectors such as travel and hospitality.
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‘More redundancies’ at travel firms as furlough ends – ABTA boss
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he still had “doubts” about whether the economy had recovered enough to re-employ all those coming off furlough.
The winding up of the scheme could hit some especially hard as it comes at the same time as the £20 Universal Credit uplift ends, and amid a background of rising energy bills.
The Liberal Democrats have warned of a “tidal wave” of job losses and want furlough to continue for some sectors.
In a letter to the chancellor, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Christine Jardine said furlough should be maintained for another six months for 10 industries particularly badly affected by the pandemic, such as air travel.
“The withdrawal of furlough risks having a devastating impact on countless families already facing a winter of soaring energy bills,” said Ms Jardine.
“The government needs to rethink its approach or the country could face a Coronavirus Black Thursday.”
The party says the extension would cost about £600m.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “I am immensely proud of the furlough scheme, and even more proud of UK workers and businesses whose resolve has seen us through an immensely difficult time.
“With the recovery well underway, and more than one million job vacancies, now is the right time for the scheme to draw to a close.
“But that in no way means the end of our support. Our Plan for Jobs is helping people into work and making sure they have the skills needed for the jobs of the future.”
Following the end of the furlough scheme, the government has launched a £500m support package for vulnerable households over winter.
The new Household Support Fund will help people with essentials over the coming months and will be distributed by councils in England.
It will be available as small grants to meet daily needs such as food, clothing, and utilities and will be available to councils from October.
The devolved administrations will receive up to £79m of the £500m.
He was sentenced to 10 weeks behind bars after he pleaded guilty to the assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of 26 October.
He announced his resignation as MP for Runcorn and Helsby in a social media post on Monday, describing the assault as a “deeply regrettable incident” for which he had “rightly been punished”.
“I am sincerely sorry to Paul Fellows, my family, colleagues and constituents,” he added.
A by-election will now be triggered in Runcorn and Helsby, where constituents will vote to elect a new MP.
Image: Mike Amesbury leaving Chester Crown Court in February. Pic: PA
By-election a ‘big test’ for PM
It will be the first by-election since Sir Keir Starmer became prime minister, in what Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates said would be a “big test” in a seat where Reform UK came second last year.
“Losing it would be an unmitigated disaster given the 14,000 majority achieved last time round,” said Bates.
Amesbury came first in Runcorn and Helsby with 22,358 votes at the 2024 general election – equating to 52.9% of the electorate.
Reform UK came in second with 7,662 votes (18.1%) and the Tories in third with 6,756 votes (16%).
Reform has yet to announce a candidate, but Karen Shore, the deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will run for Labour.
The Conservatives have opted for Sean Houlston, a membership services manager for the National Federation of Builders.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer’s government has been polling very badly indeed. Pic: PA
When will the by-election be?
Under parliamentary procedure, an MP cannot simply resign but must be disqualified from holding their seat.
To do this, they must apply for a role in the paid office of the Crown, meaning they automatically lose their seat because working for the Crown is not seen as impartial.
Titles include the crown steward and bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds and the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Rachel Reeves has now appointed Amesbury to be steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, meaning the parliamentary seat is officially vacant.
Once he does, the chief whip will put forward a motion to Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, to officially begin the process of disqualifying the MP – known as “moving the writ”.
The Speaker then puts the motion to MPs for a vote. If they agree, the writ passes through the Commons and ends up with the returning officer in the local constituency who oversees the by-election.
The writ is typically issued within three months of the MP resigning from their seat and in doing so, the date of the by-election is fixed.
It could potentially coincide with the local elections in May.
The welfare state will be there for those who need it “now and for years to come”, the work and pensions secretary has said – as the government faces pressure from its own MPs over benefit changes.
Liz Kendall acknowledged there has been “lots of speculation” about the government’s plans to reform welfare, which are due to be announced on Tuesday following a delay because of concerns from Labour backbenchers.
Speaking in the House of Commons, Ms Kendall said she wanted to assure the public the announcements will “ensure there is trust and fairness in the social security system” – and that it will remain in place for those who need it.
Ministers had wanted to stop PIP (a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions, and disabilities) rising with inflation as part of a drive to cut the welfare budget.
The proposal had been set to save about £5bn, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves searches for savings.
She has lost £9.9bn of fiscal headroom (the amount she could increase spending or cut taxes without breaking her fiscal rules) since the October budget due to a poor economy and geopolitical events.
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Will there be a backlash over benefits?
What’s the government’s case?
The government is expected to make qualifying for PIP more difficult when Ms Kendall reveals her plans on Tuesday.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates, on the Politics At Sam And Anne’s podcast, said the Treasury is also expected to abolish the Work Capability Assessment, which determines whether someone is fit or not to work and to then receive disability payments.
The government has described the system as “dysfunctional”, as those “not fit for work” do not receive employment support or further engagement after the assessment, which could lock them out of future work altogether.
Sir Keir Starmer has made cutting the welfare budget a key project, as spending on sickness benefits soared to £65bn last year – a 25% increase since the year before the pandemic – and is expected to rise to £100bn before the next general election in 2029.
The number of people in England and Wales claiming either sickness or disability benefit has gone from 2.8 million to about four million since 2019.
Ms Kendall also revealed in the Commons the number of young people not working because of mental health conditions has risen by more than 25% in the last year, with the number considered “economically inactive” now reaching 270,000.
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‘1,000 people every day signing on to PIP benefits’
Unhappy Labour MPs
Ms Kendall had been expected to announce welfare cut plans last week.
But due to the scale of the backlash, the government took the unusual step of asking all 404 Labour MPs to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street last week.
Sky News’ political correspondent Amanda Akasssaid Ms Kendall’s Commons appearance offered no real answers to the “serious concerns” raised by MPs, though social security minister Stephen Timms insisted they would “welcome” many of the changes when they are announced.
Treasury minister Emma Reynolds earlier played down the level of discontent over plans to freeze PIP, telling Sky News the roundtables were nothing more than “everyday business”.
She pointed out Labour created the welfare state in 1945, but said it needs to be “more sustainable”.
A “significant number” of countries will provide troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force, Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said.
On Saturday, leaders from 26 Western countries – plus two EU leaders and NATO’s secretary general – gathered for a virtual call of the “coalition of the willing”, hosted by Sir Keir after Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a 30-day interim ceasefire agreement.
The prime minister said military chiefs would meet this Thursday to discuss the next “operational phase” in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force – if a deal can be agreed with Russia.
Speaking on Monday, Sir Keir’s spokesman said they now expect “more than 30” countries to be involved in the coalition – but did not reveal which other countries had joined since Saturday.
He added: “The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group contributing in other ways.”
The spokesman did not say which countries agreed to be part of a peacekeeping force, which Sir Keir and French leader Emmanuel Macron have confirmed the UK and France will be part of.
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What could a peacekeeping force actually do?
Could troops end up fighting?
Russia has repeatedly said it would not accept soldiers from NATO countries being stationed in Ukraine.
Asked if British troops fired on by Russia in Ukraine would be allowed to fire back, the spokesman said: “It’s worth remembering that Russia didn’t ask Ukraine when it deployed troops.
“We’ve got operational planning meetings that they are going through.”
The spokesman also said he did not know if the US – notably absent from the coalition – will be joining the military chiefs’ meeting on Thursday, but said the UK is having “regular discussions with our American counterparts”.
Both the UK and France are pushing for the US to provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from reneging on any peace deal with Ukraine.
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Which nations will join peacekeeping efforts?
Trump and Putin to hold talks
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports the truce brokered by the US in Saudi Arabia, but “lots of questions” remain over the proposals.
Donald Trump said on Sunday night he will speak to Mr Putin on Tuesday about ending the war and negotiators have already discussed “dividing up certain assets”, including land and power plants.
He said a “lot of work” had been done over the weekend on a peace deal.
The leaders involved in Saturday’s call were from: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Antonio Costa also joined.