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A common talking point in political circles is that climate action costs a lot. Even among proponents of strong climate action, there is a common tendency to just accept that as fact. However, this is not like going shopping for toys at Toys-R-Us (or I guess Amazon these days). It’s not like you either spend money or you spend $0. Lack of climate action comes at a cost, a very high cost.

As Arthur Hasler pointed out earlier today, if you just look at the costs of oversized, over-pumped storms, the results are horrendous. “Hurricane Sandy was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Inflicting around $210 billion in damage, it was the second-costliest hurricane on record in the United States until it was surpassed by Hurricane Maria ($215 billion) in 2017. It was also approximately tied by Hurricane Harvey ($210 billion) in 2017. (Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have cost $320 billion.) All of these disasters have occurred since 2005.”

Storms are getting stronger, and much costlier. So are fires. Interestingly, at the same time, technology costs for key cleantech industries have been coming down. About a decade ago 16 years ago, some researchers and analysts published the following chart along with a study on the impacts and costs of climate change. The key finding: the damages cost a lot less if you take strong climate action sooner.

Chart courtesy of Skeptical Science.

If you spend a little bit on climate action today, the costs of climate damage are going to be relatively large. If you spend a lot on climate action today, the damages from climate-related disasters won’t be nearly as high.

That said, that chart above has a couple of issues. Firstly, it’s from 2005. Global heating and all of its ramifications have been occurring at a much quicker clip than expected back then. Secondly, solar, wind, and battery costs have dropped much more quickly than people expected. That means the chart should show a significantly higher gap between the costs of climate action and the costs of total climate catastrophe from inaction.

I don’t have up-to-date figures, and no one really does since even a thorough report would have to estimate and forecast assumptions about sales, pricing, etc., but however many trillions of dollars it costs to adequately address global heating, it would cost multiples of that amount if we ignored the need to act and simply let global heating play out.

Growing climate catastrophes are going to grab more and more headlines in the coming decade. They are already baked in, but will only get worse and worse as time marches on. The more we can do so, we should point out that, yes, it costs money to investment in solar  power, wind power, battery storage, and electric vehicles, but it will cost several times more to face destruction from hurricanes, fires, drought, flooding, and heat — not to mention all the extra suffering. It may cost $30 trillion to make adequate investments into energy and technology transitions, but if so, it’d probably cost $60 trillion, $90 trillion, or some other multiple of $30 trillion to do nothing. Ahem, Manchin.

 

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

A Wallbox EV charger for electric car is displayed during the “Mondial de l’Auto” at Parc des Expositions on October 15, 2024 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Silicon anodes appear to be leading the way in the race to commercialize next-generation battery technologies for electric vehicles.

The buzz around silicon-based anodes, which promise improved power and faster charging capabilities for EVs, has been growing in recent months — just as the hype around solid-state batteries seems to have fizzled.

It comes as increasing EV sales continue to drive up global battery demand, prompting auto giants to team up with major cell manufacturers on the road to full electrification.

While some OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have inked deals with solid-state battery developers, carmakers such as Mercedes, Porsche and GM have all bet big on silicon anodes to deliver transformative change in the science behind EVs.

A recent report from consultancy IDTechEx described the promise of advanced silicon anode materials as “immense” for improving critical areas of battery performance, noting that this potential hadn’t gone unnoticed by carmakers and key players in the battery industry.

It warned, however, that challenges such as cycle life, shelf life and — perhaps most importantly — cost, need to be addressed for widespread adoption.

Venkat Srinivasan, director of the Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science at the U.S. government’s Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, said silicon anodes appear to have the edge over solid-state batteries.

“If there’s a horse race, silicon does seem to be ahead at least at this moment, but we haven’t commercialized either one of them,” Srinivasan told CNBC via videoconference.

How silicon could enable cheaper EVs, electric flight and more powerful batteries

Srinivasan said five years ago silicon-anode batteries had a calendar life of roughly one year, but recent data appears to show a dramatic improvement in the durability of these materials, with some tests now projecting a three to four-year calendar life.

Unlike the cycle life of a battery, which counts the number of times it can be charged and discharged, the calendar life measures degradation over time. Typically, the calendar life of a battery refers to the period in which it can function at over 80% of its initial capacity, regardless of its usage.

Srinivasan said solid-state batteries, long billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving, still have a long way to go before they can match the recent progress made by silicon anodes.

“That transition still has to be made in solid-state with their metal batteries and that’s why I think you’re hearing from people that, hey, it looks like that promise hasn’t panned out,” Srinivasan said.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t get there. It may happen in a few years. It just means that it feels like today silicon is in a different part of the technology readiness level.”

Silicon anodes vs. solid-state batteries

Analysts say silicon anodes theoretically offer 10 times the energy density as graphite, which are commonly used in battery anodes today. Yet, these same materials typically suffer from rapid degradation when lots of silicon is used.

“Silicon anodes and solid-state batteries are two emerging technology trends in the EV battery market aimed at pushing the boundaries of high-performance battery cells,” Rory McNulty, senior research analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told CNBC via email.

A researcher checks the electromagnet de-ironing machine at the Daejoo Electronic Materials Co. R&D center in Siheung, South Korea, on Thursday, June 22, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

It has typically been the case that better battery performance comes at the cost of longevity or safety, McNulty said. Silicon anodes, for example, are known to swell significantly during charging, which reduces the battery’s longevity.

By comparison, McNulty said solid-state batteries were claimed to greatly improve the stability of the electrolyte to high performance electrode materials, combating the challenges of using high energy density materials such as silicon and lithium.

As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.

Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China.

Georgi Georgiev

Battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets

Japan’s Toyota and Nissan have both said they are aiming to bring solid-state batteries into mass production over the coming years, while China’s SAIC Motor Corp reportedly said in early September that its MG brand would equip cars with solid-state batteries within the next 12 months.

Nonetheless, analysts remain skeptical about when solid-state batteries will actually make it to market.

A strategic opportunity?

“Silicon based anodes promise to be the next-generation technology in the anode field, providing a solution for faster charging,” Georgi Georgiev, battery raw materials analyst at consultancy Fastmarkets, told CNBC via email.

Georgiev said several industry players have been looking into the potential of silicon anodes, from well-established anode suppliers in China and South Korea to new players like Taiwan’s ProLogium and U.S. manufacturers Group14 and Sila Nanotechnologies.

“Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China, which dominates the graphite-based anode supply chains with Chinese anode producers holding 98% of the global anode market for batteries,” Georgiev said.

“However, there are significant technical challenges going to 100% silicon anode such as silicon expansion affecting the longevity of the batteries and currently there are several routes to produce silicon anodes,” he added.

A FEV x ProLogium Technology Co. 100% silicon composite anode next-generation battery at the Paris Motor Show in Paris, France, on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium debuted the world’s first fully silicon anode battery at the Paris Motor Show last month, saying it’s new fast-charging battery system not only surpassed traditional lithium-ion batteries in performance and charging efficiency but also “critical industry challenges.”

ProLogium, citing test data, said it’s 100% silicon anode battery could charge from 5% to 60% in just 5 minutes, and reach 80% in 8.5 minutes. It described the advancement as an “unmatched achievement in the competitive EV market,” which will help to reduce charging times and extend the range of EVs.

Fastmarkets’ Georgiev said a big question mark over the commercialization of silicon anodes is the cost of production and whether any of the major silicon-anode producers “could produce material at scale with a consistent quality and at a competitive price — [a] major requirements of OEMs.”

“At this stage silicon anodes are used more as an additive to graphite-based anodes and in the years to come we expect to see increase of silicon share in anode, but in combination with graphite, while 100% silicon anodes will take longer time to enter the mass market,” he added.

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal

Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters

Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.

The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.

The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.

The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”

Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.

The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.

Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.

The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.

The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.

OPEC chief says delayed December output hike is 'nothing unusual'

“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”

The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!

Today’s episode is the first with our new title sponsor, BLUETTI – a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems.

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New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonusLucid proves than an EV company can keep its promises while Xiaomi teams up with Chevrolet and Honda to prove – at least conceptually – that records are made to be broken. audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

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