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A general view shows the Wujing Coal-Electricity Power Station in Shanghai on September 28, 2021.
Hector Retamal | AFP | Getty Images

BEIJING — Local Chinese authorities have abruptly ordered power cuts at many factories in the last week, reflecting a system trying to react to a number of directives from Beijing, and macroeconomic developments.

While a few economists have cut their forecasts on China’s GDP growth as a result, others are still waiting to see the scale of the impact.

Here’s a broad overview on how the power crunch developed:

Coal supply drops, prices surge

Back in late 2020, China stopped buying coal from Australia, once the Asian giant’s largest source of imported coal. Political tensions between the two countries have escalated after Australia supported an investigation into how Beijing handled the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, historically cold weather that winter drove up demand for coal. Some cities reportedly restricted electricity use in homes and factories.

Alongside a global surge in commodity prices, thermal coal, the primary fuel for electricity production, saw prices soar by more than 40% over 12 months to around 777 yuan per metric ton ($119.53) in December 2020 on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, according to data from Wind Information.

As spring approached, central government authorities announced five-year targets for the country to achieve its publicly declared goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030. China aims in the next five years to boost the share of non-fossil fuels to about 20% of energy consumption, up from about 15% currently.

Renewable energy falls off

But as China tried to shift to renewable energy, a severe drought hit the hydropower center of Yunnan province. Water-generated power declined year-on-year in July and August by more than 4% each month, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

Wind-generated power has also slowed its growth, rising 7% in August from a year ago, down from 25.4% growth in July, the commission said.

Analysts have also said China’s climate goals in the latest five-year plan are more moderate than expected. Climate Action Tracker, an international non-profit that reviews countries’ efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals, rated China’s policies and actions as “insufficient” in a report released Sept. 15.

The bulk of electricity in China is still generated by coal. Year-on-year growth in electricity use has surged to its highest in a decade, according to data accessed through Wind.

Power rationing begins

In addition to extreme temperatures, factories are demanding more electricity as they rush to fill global orders for Chinese goods. Exports have surged by double digits amid the pandemic.

“Demand for power has risen with China’s economic recovery,” Eurasia Group analysts wrote in May. They noted that “several industrial hubs along China’s eastern coast, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, have warned about potential temporary power supply shortages during the summer peak season.”

In June, state-backed Securities Times reported of some power restrictions in parts of the export hub of Guangdong.

Meanwhile, coal supply was falling as mines shut down in a national effort to reduce carbon emissions. The coal inventory of major power plants reached a ten-year low in August, according to Wind data.

But in mid-August, China’s economic planning agency announced that 20 regions — accounting for about 70% of China’s GDP per Nomura — failed to meet carbon-related targets, prompting local authorities to take action.

Some authorities cut electricity overnight

Some of the latest moves were quite abrupt. For example, on Sept. 23, management of a high-tech business area in Hunan province ordered power restrictions, effective immediately, according to a copy seen by CNBC. The curbs are set to last through Thursday, the day before China’s National Day holiday that runs Oct. 1 to 7.

On Sunday, state-backed Securities Times reported of major power cuts for factories in Guangdong’s manufacturing hub of Dongguang city for the same week. The report also noted sudden power outages in many parts of northeast China, including residential areas in Liaoning province.

“The power outage means products cannot be delivered on time,” said Wen Biao, general manager at Qianhe Technology Logistics Co. in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. He said the situation is the same in Shanghai and the port city of Ningbo.

The drop in production has cut demand for shipping overseas, and prices for shipping to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $9,000 per container, down from $15,000, he said, noting the declines began Sept. 24.

In all, Reuters reported that more than 10 provinces and regions have restricted power use.

For context, Guangdong province accounts for about 23% of China’s exports by value, while Liaoning accounts for 1.6%, according to official data for January to August.

The abrupt power cuts have also given foreign businesses pause on whether to invest more in China-based supply chains. Some businesses that had planned investments of tens of millions of U.S. dollars in China are now looking at Southeast Asia instead, said Johan Annell, partner at consulting firm Asia Perspective.

This week, China’s State Grid and National Development and Reform Commission pledged to ensure power, especially for residents, and said they would take measures such as allowing greater production of coal and increasing coal imports.

The commission said power demand this winter could exceed the peak levels of this past summer and winter.

Thermal coal prices have nearly doubled this year, and traded just over 1% lower around 1,319.80 yuan per metric ton as of midday Thursday.

Economic impact

The shock to many Chinese factories comes as investors worry about fallout in the massive real estate sector as indebted property giant Evergrande warns of default. Together with related industries like construction, real estate accounts for about a quarter of China’s GDP, according to Moody’s.

After the industry’s roughly two decades of rapid, debt-fueled expansion, regulators have stepped in with tighter rules on how much developers can borrow.

When it comes to the economic impact, Dan Wang, Shanghai-based chief economist at Hang Seng China, said she would “focus more on the restrictive policies in the property market.”

She attributed the power curbs mostly to an inability of authorities to adjust the electricity price, which is largely set by the state. Wang said factories’ rush to fill global demand has also created overcapacity.

“The impact from the power restriction is equivalent to a natural disaster,” she said.

Some economists expect a more severe impact. Among major investment banks, Nomura cut its China GDP forecast on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.

“The power cuts by themselves may not be significant enough, but combined with the property sector slowdown and regional Covid outbreaks, they do make me worry more about GDP growth in Q4,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I have lowered my forecast for Q4 to around 4% from 5%, with risk on the downside.”

Economists at other financial institutions have mostly held off on forecast cuts and are waiting to see how significant the drop in production is.

Also weighing on growth is a crackdown on major internet technology companies for alleged monopolistic practices. A sudden order in July that after-school tutoring companies restructure as non-profits has put hundreds of thousands of jobs — and incomes — in question.

Consumer spending, a major driver of Chinese economic growth, has also been sluggish since the pandemic as Covid-related restrictions have kept many people from traveling and eating out.

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Former coal mine land to host 5.5 GW of solar as Peabody partners with RWE

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Former coal mine land to host 5.5 GW of solar as Peabody partners with RWE

US coal giant Peabody and Germany’s RWE are teaming up to develop 5.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar and energy storage projects on former mining land in the Midwest.

It’s an unlikely but strategic partnership: RWE is one of the world’s leading renewable energy developers, while Peabody was once the largest private-sector coal company in the world.

RWE is buying into R3 Renewables, a joint venture that Peabody launched alongside Summit Partners Credit Advisors and Riverstone Credit Partners. With this move, RWE is acquiring Summit and Riverstone’s stakes and taking a majority position, while Peabody will hold on to a 25% equity interest. The projects are spread across Indiana and Illinois, focusing on large-scale solar and energy storage on land that Peabody previously mined for coal.

The plan is to develop 10 projects totaling 5.5 GW. RWE will take over seven of these projects, while the remaining three will continue under a joint venture with Peabody. If all goes to plan, these projects could generate enough electricity to power more than 850,000 homes.

For Peabody, which has faced growing pressure to pivot as the world transitions away from fossil fuels, the partnership is part of a broader effort to create value from its reclaimed mining sites. Jim Grech, Peabody’s CEO, says the partnership with RWE marks “significant added momentum” for their renewable energy initiatives.

RWE sees this as a big opportunity to expand in the US Midwest. Andrew Flanagan, CEO of RWE Clean Energy, called the partnership “an exciting opportunity to invest in rural regions of Indiana and Illinois,” promising economic development through construction jobs, investment, and community benefits. The plan aims to support the energy transition while ensuring that communities historically tied to coal still see benefits – this time from clean energy.

Read more: Ørsted’s largest solar farm in the world is now online in Texas


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Wall Street launches new ways to bet on bitcoin

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Wall Street launches new ways to bet on bitcoin

Bitcoin hits fresh record high after Nasdaq lists options on BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF

For years, bitcoin won by being boring.

Investors weren’t able to do all that much with it besides buy and hold it. But that was precisely why the world’s largest cryptocurrency was valuable.

It was a commodity, like gold — or corn. It didn’t get too fancy on its offerings. In fact, bitcoin’s core team of developers has intentionally moved as slowly as possible on everything that touches the base blockchain specifically to avoid breaking things. That’s why many of crypto’s more cavalier coders headed to other blockchains to tinker and do things like build decentralized applications.

The approach worked. Traders poured their money into bitcoin not just because it was the OG coin but also because the network was robust and reliable, and they knew what they were getting. As solana reported hack after hack, bitcoin didn’t really change. The asset was volatile, but aside from a major system upgrade that took four years to design and green-light, bitcoin kept its status as the world’s biggest cryptocurrency by market cap by sticking to the status quo.

But times are changing for the original coin.

Developers are increasingly building on bitcoin’s base blockchain in unexpected ways. Wall Street is also decking the coin out with all its familiar trappings such as exchange-traded fund wrappers and allowing traders to hedge positions and make leveraged bets.

In January, spot bitcoin ETFs began trading, which opened the door to more mainstream investors. Last week, options on those spot crypto products finally started to go live on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange. CBOE Global Markets is also set to list its first cash-settled bitcoin ETF options Dec. 2.

Creating this new margin framework around bitcoin means that both retail traders and institutions alike will be able to get more exposure to the asset class relative to how much cash they’re investing.

How Wall Street is capitalizing on crypto resurgence as market cap hits record $3.2 trillion

New ways to bet on bitcoin

Collectively, the U.S.-issued spot bitcoin funds hold north of $100 billion in assets under management. Last week, they notched their largest weekly inflows on record, totaling more than $3.1 billion. And according to CoinShares, year-to-date net flows are up to $37 billion versus U.S. Gold ETFs, which drew around $309 million in their first year.

Nearly half of those flows into the spot bitcoin products took place after U.S. interest rates were cut for the first time in four years in September.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, told CNBC there has been record high open interest for futures on the CME derivatives exchange, the way most U.S. institutions currently buy bitcoin futures contracts. But a lot of traders have been waiting for options on spot bitcoin ETFs on major exchanges such as the NYSE and Nasdaq, since it enhances liquidity and offers hedging tools.

Lunde says that demand for leveraged long exposure to bitcoin and ether is climbing, with VolatilityShares’ BTC exposure hitting new all-time highs.

Galaxy Digital’s trading team told CNBC the firm has observed significant volume in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF options, the first to launch on the Nasdaq last week. BlackRock is the largest digital asset manager in the world after it eclipsed Grayscale in August. BlackRock’s bitcoin trust IBIT holds $48.4 billion in bitcoin compared with the $34 billion in its gold trust.

Options on IBIT had a blockbuster debut, with 353,716 contracts traded on its first day, according to Galaxy Digital. The firm noted that the previous most active debut of options trading was when Facebook options went live in 2012 and 360,000 contracts changed hands.

Galaxy sees notable trading activity extending out to January 2027, roughly halfway into Donald Trump’s administration. On the campaign trail, the president-elect had an about-face on bitcoin and went from criticizing digital assets to making big promises to the crypto industry. Bitcoin is up roughly 40% since Election Day, Nov. 5.

“This level of concentrated, long-dated activity reflects investor confidence in the ETF’s long-term growth potential, signaling bullish sentiment for the years ahead,” Galaxy’s trading team told CNBC.

Until now, offshore crypto native platforms such as Binance and Deribit have been the main marketplace for bitcoin derivatives trading. Galaxy told CNBC there is a noticeable volatility premium between Deribit, CME and IBIT, which could present arbitrage opportunities among the varying platforms offering derivatives trading.

On Friday, more than $9 billion in bitcoin options contracts expire on Deribit, which could lead to greater price volatility as the expiration date approaches.

“There’s a ton of leverage in the system right now,” Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, a longtime crypto investor, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.

“You look at the funding rates to do crypto in our market, right? The perpetual market, as high as they’ve been, the basis is high,” Novogratz said. “The crypto community is levered to the gills, and so there will be a correction.”

Bitcoin was within striking distance of $100,000 on Friday but retrenched over the weekend. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $95,000.

Bitcoin tops $82,000 as crypto euphoria over Trump win shows no sign of waning

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Hyundai doesn’t care if Trump kills the EV tax credit, it plans to keep growing either way

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Hyundai doesn't care if Trump kills the EV tax credit, it plans to keep growing either way

Although President-Elect Donald Trump is promising to end the $7,500 EV tax credit, Hyundai is confident it will continue growing in the US. The company just opened a massive new $7.6 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia as it looks to grab a bigger share of the US market.

A Reuters report earlier this month claiming Trump’s transition team is planning to end the $7,500 federal EV tax credit is causing US automakers to brace for the potential major impacts.

Although US market leader Tesla reportedly supports the move, Hyundai Motor, including Kia, is preparing for any outcome.

“Hyundai did not build our [US] investment plan based on incentives; the plan was even made before Trump’s [first] term,” Hyundai’s newly elected CEO, Jose Munoz, said at the LA Auto Show last week.

In an interview with Korean media at the event (via Korea JongAng Daily), Munoz said, “If the Inflation Reduction Act goes out, it goes out for everybody, and we can even do better.” Although Hyundai’s EVs currently don’t qualify for the full $7,500 credit, like some US rivals, the company is still gaining market share.

“Competitors like Tesla step by step are losing market share and we continue to increase our share,” Hyundai’s current global chief operating officer explained.

Hyundai-Trump-EV-credit
Jose Munoz with the Hyundai IONIQ 9 (Source: Hyundai)

Hyundai to remain flexible if Trump ends the EV tax credit

Hyundai opened its massive new $7.6 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia last month. The first vehicle that rolled off the assembly line was the new US-made 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5. Hyundai upgraded its top-selling EV with more range, features, and a sleek new design. It also comes with an NACS port to charge at Tesla Superchargers.

Last week, the company also unveiled its first three-row electric SUV, the IONIQ 9, which will also be built at the facility.

2025-Hyundai-IONIQ-5-prices
Hyundai’s new 2025 IONIQ 5 Limited with a Tesla NACS port (Source: Hyundai)

However, until the battery unit opens next year, Hyundai’s US-built EVs qualify for a partial $3,750 credit. Until then, Hyundai is passing on the full $7,500 for leases.

Hyundai fast-tracked production to level the playing field in the US, its most important market. With Trump reportedly planning to end subsidies, Hyundai’s new CEO said the company will remain flexible.

“We will not only produce EVs but also hybrids and extended-range EVs at our plants, and therefore, the key for us is flexibility and then being able to adjust to what the customers want,” Munoz told reporters.

2025-Hyundai-IONIQ-5-prices
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 (Source: Hyundai)

As the US is expected to pull back, China’s EV market continues surging. China became the first country to build over 10 million new energy vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) in a single year.

EV leaders, like BYD, are looking overseas to drive growth as a wave of low-cost rivals is hitting China. As sales continue surging, BYD is quickly catching up to Ford in global deliveries.

Hyundai-Trump-EV-tax-credit
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 XRT (Source: Hyundai)

Munoz said, “China is a big threat,” but he believes Hyundai can compete with “technological prowess” and “quality.”

“A lot of consumers, when they buy Chinese products, they realize maybe the quality is not as good as others,” Hyundai leaders explained. That’s where Hyundai wants to “elevate our game in terms of providing not only the best quality but also the best services to our customers.”

Hyundai Motor, including Kia and Genesis, is outpacing Ford and GM as the second-largest seller of EVs in the US through September. With US production kicking off, Hyundai aims to solidify its spot in the US auto market.

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