Why China’s power crunch is such a big deal

Published

4 years ago

September 30, 2021

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A general view shows the Wujing Coal-Electricity Power Station in Shanghai on September 28, 2021.

Hector Retamal | AFP | Getty Images

BEIJING — Local Chinese authorities have abruptly ordered power cuts at many factories in the last week, reflecting a system trying to react to a number of directives from Beijing, and macroeconomic developments.

While a few economists have cut their forecasts on China’s GDP growth as a result, others are still waiting to see the scale of the impact.

Here’s a broad overview on how the power crunch developed:

Coal supply drops, prices surge

Back in late 2020, China stopped buying coal from Australia, once the Asian giant’s largest source of imported coal. Political tensions between the two countries have escalated after Australia supported an investigation into how Beijing handled the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, historically cold weather that winter drove up demand for coal. Some cities reportedly restricted electricity use in homes and factories.

Alongside a global surge in commodity prices, thermal coal, the primary fuel for electricity production, saw prices soar by more than 40% over 12 months to around 777 yuan per metric ton ($119.53) in December 2020 on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, according to data from Wind Information.

As spring approached, central government authorities announced five-year targets for the country to achieve its publicly declared goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030. China aims in the next five years to boost the share of non-fossil fuels to about 20% of energy consumption, up from about 15% currently.

Renewable energy falls off

But as China tried to shift to renewable energy, a severe drought hit the hydropower center of Yunnan province. Water-generated power declined year-on-year in July and August by more than 4% each month, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

Wind-generated power has also slowed its growth, rising 7% in August from a year ago, down from 25.4% growth in July, the commission said.

Analysts have also said China’s climate goals in the latest five-year plan are more moderate than expected. Climate Action Tracker, an international non-profit that reviews countries’ efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals, rated China’s policies and actions as “insufficient” in a report released Sept. 15.

The bulk of electricity in China is still generated by coal. Year-on-year growth in electricity use has surged to its highest in a decade, according to data accessed through Wind.

Power rationing begins

In addition to extreme temperatures, factories are demanding more electricity as they rush to fill global orders for Chinese goods. Exports have surged by double digits amid the pandemic.

“Demand for power has risen with China’s economic recovery,” Eurasia Group analysts wrote in May. They noted that “several industrial hubs along China’s eastern coast, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, have warned about potential temporary power supply shortages during the summer peak season.”

In June, state-backed Securities Times reported of some power restrictions in parts of the export hub of Guangdong.

Meanwhile, coal supply was falling as mines shut down in a national effort to reduce carbon emissions. The coal inventory of major power plants reached a ten-year low in August, according to Wind data.

But in mid-August, China’s economic planning agency announced that 20 regions — accounting for about 70% of China’s GDP per Nomura — failed to meet carbon-related targets, prompting local authorities to take action.

Some authorities cut electricity overnight

Some of the latest moves were quite abrupt. For example, on Sept. 23, management of a high-tech business area in Hunan province ordered power restrictions, effective immediately, according to a copy seen by CNBC. The curbs are set to last through Thursday, the day before China’s National Day holiday that runs Oct. 1 to 7.

On Sunday, state-backed Securities Times reported of major power cuts for factories in Guangdong’s manufacturing hub of Dongguang city for the same week. The report also noted sudden power outages in many parts of northeast China, including residential areas in Liaoning province.

“The power outage means products cannot be delivered on time,” said Wen Biao, general manager at Qianhe Technology Logistics Co. in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. He said the situation is the same in Shanghai and the port city of Ningbo.

The drop in production has cut demand for shipping overseas, and prices for shipping to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $9,000 per container, down from $15,000, he said, noting the declines began Sept. 24.

In all, Reuters reported that more than 10 provinces and regions have restricted power use.

For context, Guangdong province accounts for about 23% of China’s exports by value, while Liaoning accounts for 1.6%, according to official data for January to August.

Economic impact

The shock to many Chinese factories comes as investors worry about fallout in the massive real estate sector as indebted property giant Evergrande warns of default. Together with related industries like construction, real estate accounts for about a quarter of China’s GDP, according to Moody’s.

After the industry’s roughly two decades of rapid, debt-fueled expansion, regulators have stepped in with tighter rules on how much developers can borrow.

When it comes to the economic impact, Dan Wang, Shanghai-based chief economist at Hang Seng China, said she would “focus more on the restrictive policies in the property market.”

She attributed the power curbs mostly to an inability of authorities to adjust the electricity price, which is largely set by the state. Wang said factories’ rush to fill global demand has also created overcapacity.

“The impact from the power restriction is equivalent to a natural disaster,” she said.

Some economists expect a more severe impact. Among major investment banks, Nomura cut its China GDP forecast on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.

“The power cuts by themselves may not be significant enough, but combined with the property sector slowdown and regional Covid outbreaks, they do make me worry more about GDP growth in Q4,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I have lowered my forecast for Q4 to around 4% from 5%, with risk on the downside.”

Economists at other financial institutions have mostly held off on forecast cuts and are waiting to see how significant the drop in production is.

Also weighing on growth is a crackdown on major internet technology companies for alleged monopolistic practices. A sudden order in July that after-school tutoring companies restructure as non-profits has put hundreds of thousands of jobs — and incomes — in question.

Consumer spending, a major driver of Chinese economic growth, has also been sluggish since the pandemic as Covid-related restrictions have kept many people from traveling and eating out.

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Perplexity partners with PayPal for in-chat shopping as AI race heats up

Published

4 hours ago

May 14, 2025

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Perplexity partners with PayPal for in-chat shopping as AI race heats up

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Perplexity is extending its bet on chat-powered shopping, aiming to stand out in the crowded generative artificial intelligence market against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.

The company said on Wednesday that it’s partnering with PayPal to let users make purchases directly in chat. U.S. customers will soon be able to book travel, buy products, and secure concert tickets without leaving the platform.

Payments will be completed in the chat with PayPal or Venmo, and PayPal will handle processing, shipping, tracking, and invoicing. Purchases will be completed with one click, with the help of the payment company’s passkey checkout.

“Perplexity wants to be wherever users are asking questions and making decisions,” said Ryan Foutty, Perplexity’s vice president of business. “Our vision for assistive AI is that everything just gets better and easier for people — wherever they are and however they prefer to make decisions.”

1 in 4 cars sold in 2025 will be EVs, and that’s just the beginning

Published

11 hours ago

May 14, 2025

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1 in 4 cars sold in 2025 will be EVs, and that's just the beginning

BYD's-largest-car-transport-ship — BYD Shenzhen, the world’s largest car transport ship (Source: BYD)

More than 1 in 4 cars sold around the world in 2025 are expected to be EVs, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). And if EVs stay on track, they could make up over 40% of global car sales by 2030.

The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2025 report, released today, shows the electric car market is still charging ahead, even with some bumps in the road. Despite economic pressures on the auto sector, EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024, pushing their global market share past 20% for the first time. That momentum carried into early 2025, with EV sales jumping 35% in Q1 year-over-year. All major markets saw record-breaking Q1 numbers.

China continues to lead the EV race by a wide margin. Nearly half the cars sold there in 2024 were electric. That’s over 11 million EVs – more than the entire world sold just two years earlier. EV adoption is also booming in emerging markets across Asia and Latin America, where sales shot up by more than 60% last year.

In the US, EV sales grew about 10% year over year, with electric vehicles now making up over 10% of all new car sales. Meanwhile, Europe’s EV sales hit a plateau. As government incentives started to taper off, the continent’s market share held steady at around 20%.

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“Our data shows that, despite significant uncertainties, electric cars remain on a strong growth trajectory globally,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “Sales continue to set new records, with major implications for the international auto industry.”

One of the main drivers is lower prices. The average cost of a battery electric car dropped in 2024, thanks to increased competition and falling battery prices. In China, two-thirds of EVs sold last year were cheaper than their gas-powered counterparts, and that’s without subsidies. But in markets like the US and Germany, EVs are still pricier up front: around 30% more in the US, and 20% more in Germany.

Still, EVs win when it comes to operating costs. Even if oil drops to $40 per barrel, it’s still about half as expensive to charge and run an EV at home in Europe than to drive a gas car.

The report also notes the growing role of Chinese EV exports. About 20% of all EVs sold globally last year were imported. China, which produces over 70% of the world’s EVs, exported 1.25 million of them in 2024. These exports have helped push down prices in emerging markets.

And it’s not just electric cars that are on the rise. Electric truck sales jumped 80% globally last year, now making up nearly 2% of the truck market. Most of that growth came from China, where some heavy-duty electric trucks are already cheaper to run than diesel, even if the upfront cost is higher.

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April’s global EV sales were up 29% compared to a year ago, once again led by China

Published

16 hours ago

May 13, 2025

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April's global EV sales were up 29% compared to a year ago, once again led by China

Global research firm Rho Motion has shared its monthly global EV sales report for April, which details continued long-term growth. While global EV sales are down compared to March 2025, the year-over-year tally remains strong, despite uncertainty amid the threat of tariffs and trade wars.

Since merging with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence last June, Rho Motion has become one of the go-to platforms for data surrounding critical mineral and energy transition supply chains. Its monthly updates on market intelligence, including prices and sales data, are must-see research every time they’re published.

This month’s report is no different.

In March 2025, we reported that EV sales worldwide had surged to 1.7 million units, bringing the total to 4.1 million units for Q1. March marked a 40% increase compared to February 2025, and a 29% increase year-over-year.

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For April 2025, Global EV sales stumbled slightly compared to the prior month, but held steady in YoY growth.

April global EV sales fall MoM but rise YoY

According to Rho Motion’s latest report, global EV sales for April 2025 were 1.5 million units, bringing the year-to-date tally to 5.6 million NEVs (BEVs, PHEVs, and LDVs). April sales fell 12% compared to March 2025, but matched the previous month’s year-over-year growth at 29%.

Here’s how those 2025 global EV sales breakdown by region, compared to January to April 2024:

Global: 5.6 million, +29%
China: 3.3 million, +35%
Europe: 1.2 million, +25%
North America: 0.6 million, +5%
Rest of World: 0.5 million, +37%

As has been the case with every Rho Motion report we cover, China continues to lead the world in EV adoption despite sales dropping 9% month-over-month. Having recently visited the Shanghai Auto Show alongside some OEM visits in Hangzhou, I can see why adoption is moving more quickly. The number of available makes and models at affordable prices is incredible, and the technology you get for your money is downright staggering.

Even amongst ongoing talks of tariffs between global superpowers, including EV powerhouse China, EV sales continue to grow. Per Rho Motion data manager, Charles Lester:

Ongoing tariff negotiations are dominating talk in the electric vehicle industry but quietly, domestic manufacturers in China and the EU continue to perform well and grow market share. The EU is certainly the success story for EV sales in 2025 so far, with emissions targets lighting a fire under the industry to accelerate the switch to electric, they have grown the market by a quarter in the first third of the year. In China, that year on year sales increase is even greater at 35%, spurred on by the vehicle trade in scheme.

Europe, whose adoption numbers stumbled in 2024, has seen steady growth in EV adoption in 2025, landing second to China in sales growth last month (a 25% increase). This increase has been fueled by the increasing number of BEV and PHEV imports to the region from China from brands like BYD, ZEEKR, NIO, and XPeng.

North American sales have only grown by 5% in 2025, with Mexico leading the pack. The rest of the global EV market saw a 37% increase in sales, but those numbers only accounted for about half a million units.

Next time anyone tells you EV adoption is slowing down, you can just send them this data, because it is quite the contrary. Global EV sales continued to grow in April, and that trend should continue through 2025 and beyond.

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