A general view shows the Wujing Coal-Electricity Power Station in Shanghai on September 28, 2021.
Hector Retamal | AFP | Getty Images
BEIJING — Local Chinese authorities have abruptly ordered power cuts at many factories in the last week, reflecting a system trying to react to a number of directives from Beijing, and macroeconomic developments.
While a few economists have cut their forecasts on China’s GDP growth as a result, others are still waiting to see the scale of the impact.
Here’s a broad overview on how the power crunch developed:
Coal supply drops, prices surge
Back in late 2020, China stopped buying coal from Australia, once the Asian giant’s largest source of imported coal. Political tensions between the two countries have escalated after Australia supported an investigation into how Beijing handled the coronavirus pandemic.
Alongside a global surge in commodity prices, thermal coal, the primary fuel for electricity production, saw prices soar by more than 40% over 12 months to around 777 yuan per metric ton ($119.53) in December 2020 on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, according to data from Wind Information.
But as China tried to shift to renewable energy, a severe drought hit the hydropower center of Yunnan province. Water-generated power declined year-on-year in July and August by more than 4% each month, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Wind-generated power has also slowed its growth, rising 7% in August from a year ago, down from 25.4% growth in July, the commission said.
Analysts have also said China’s climate goals in the latest five-year plan are more moderate than expected. Climate Action Tracker, an international non-profit that reviews countries’ efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals, rated China’s policies and actions as “insufficient” in a report released Sept. 15.
The bulk of electricity in China is still generated by coal. Year-on-year growth in electricity use has surged to its highest in a decade, according to data accessed through Wind.
In addition to extreme temperatures, factories are demanding more electricity as they rush to fill global orders for Chinese goods. Exports have surged by double digits amid the pandemic.
“Demand for power has risen with China’s economic recovery,” Eurasia Group analysts wrote in May. They noted that “several industrial hubs along China’s eastern coast, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, have warned about potential temporary power supply shortages during the summer peak season.”
Meanwhile, coal supply was falling as mines shut down in a national effort to reduce carbon emissions. The coal inventory of major power plants reached a ten-year low in August, according to Wind data.
But in mid-August, China’s economic planning agency announced that 20 regions — accounting for about 70% of China’s GDP per Nomura — failed to meet carbon-related targets, prompting local authorities to take action.
Some authorities cut electricity overnight
Some of the latest moves were quite abrupt. For example, on Sept. 23, management of a high-tech business area in Hunan province ordered power restrictions, effective immediately, according to a copy seen by CNBC. The curbs are set to last through Thursday, the day before China’s National Day holiday that runs Oct. 1 to 7.
On Sunday, state-backed Securities Times reported of major power cuts for factories in Guangdong’s manufacturing hub of Dongguang city for the same week. The report also noted sudden power outages in many parts of northeast China, including residential areas in Liaoning province.
“The power outage means products cannot be delivered on time,” said Wen Biao, general manager at Qianhe Technology Logistics Co. in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. He said the situation is the same in Shanghai and the port city of Ningbo.
The drop in production has cut demand for shipping overseas, and prices for shipping to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $9,000 per container, down from $15,000, he said, noting the declines began Sept. 24.
For context, Guangdong province accounts for about 23% of China’s exports by value, while Liaoning accounts for 1.6%, according to official data for January to August.
The abrupt power cuts have also given foreign businesses pause on whether to invest more in China-based supply chains. Some businesses that had planned investments of tens of millions of U.S. dollars in China are now looking at Southeast Asia instead, said Johan Annell, partner at consulting firm Asia Perspective.
This week, China’s State Grid and National Development and Reform Commission pledged to ensure power, especially for residents, and said they would take measures such as allowing greater production of coal and increasing coal imports.
The commission said power demand this winter could exceed the peak levels of this past summer and winter.
Thermal coal prices have nearly doubled this year, and traded just over 1% lower around 1,319.80 yuan per metric ton as of midday Thursday.
Economic impact
The shock to many Chinese factories comes as investors worry about fallout in the massive real estate sector as indebted property giant Evergrande warns of default. Together with related industries like construction, real estate accounts for about a quarter of China’s GDP, according to Moody’s.
After the industry’s roughly two decades of rapid, debt-fueled expansion, regulators have stepped in with tighter rules on how much developers can borrow.
When it comes to the economic impact, Dan Wang, Shanghai-based chief economist at Hang Seng China, said she would “focus more on the restrictive policies in the property market.”
She attributed the power curbs mostly to an inability of authorities to adjust the electricity price, which is largely set by the state. Wang said factories’ rush to fill global demand has also created overcapacity.
“The impact from the power restriction is equivalent to a natural disaster,” she said.
“The power cuts by themselves may not be significant enough, but combined with the property sector slowdown and regional Covid outbreaks, they do make me worry more about GDP growth in Q4,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I have lowered my forecast for Q4 to around 4% from 5%, with risk on the downside.”
Economists at other financial institutions have mostly held off on forecast cuts and are waiting to see how significant the drop in production is.
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GM is laying off a total of 3,300 workers at three separate manufacturing sites in Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee, and it directly cites government actions as the reason.
The republican party has claimed that one of its primary goals in the current political environment is to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. However, as is the case with many of its claimed goals, the policy it implements acts directly against those goals.
In this case, republicans have been in the process of an all-out assault on American manufacturing – working to reduce investment in America, slow development of new manufacturing projects, make enemies out of countries and companies that had been our former allies, and directly stop efforts to boost America’s manufacturing base and prepare the country for the future.
And today, the effects of the republican party’s recent $4 trillion giveaway to wealthy elites are being felt by one of America’s largest historical manufacturing employers: General Motors.
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GM cites “evolving regulatory environment” as it fires thousands
GM announced that it would lay off 1,200 workers in in “Factory Zero” plant in Detroit and 550 in Ohio at its Ultium battery plant, along with 850 additional temporary layoffs in Ohio and another 700 temporary layoffs at its Ultium plant in Tennessee. That’s a total of 3,300 jobs lost in today’s announcement.
Both Ultium plants will be temporarily idled at the start of 2026, resuming sometime in the middle of the year, with upgrades occurring during the pause.
GM made a statement directly tying the layoffs to “an evolving regulatory environment” which has caused “slower near-term EV adoption.”
Companies have falsely claimed for around two years now that EV demand is down, despite that it has increased for that entire time. However, there was a spike in EV demand last month as the US EV tax credit ended, causing a pull-forward of demand that is likely to result in a period of lower EV sales in the US in the coming months, even as EV sales will continue to rise globally.
While GM is one of the better-selling EV brands in the US, and has quite an extensive stable of options, it has also recently unwisely pulled back on its EV ambitions, offering an opening for its domestic and foreign rivals to fill the gap created by its intransigence. And these are not the only policy-related layoffs GM has announced – it already fired thousands of workers last month.
GM recently said it will lose $1.6 billion this quarter alone as a result of these changes in policy, including rollbacks in clean air regulation from the EPA and DoT, which GM lobbied for through its membership in the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. That’s a lot of money to lose (especially after literally asking for it), so firings were basically inevitable.
Biden brought auto jobs to the US; republicans send them to China instead
The bill also led to trade deals that would help to wrest control of raw materials from China, the country that currently has most of the world’s supply and refining capacity, such as a US-Japan free-trade deal for battery minerals.
But as soon as this unquestionably good thing happened for America, republicans had to stop it. Their huge giveaway to the rich also included provisions to reverse most of the positive reforms in the Inflation Reduction Act, with the goal of stopping the boom in American manufacturing that happened under President Biden (because, of course, it threatens their oil masters).
In total, the republicans’ efforts to harm US manufacturing and make your air dirtier will likely result in 2 million job losses for America. GM’s 3,300 today are just one small story among many others – a wider retreat in American auto and clean energy manufacturing that is a direct result of the republican party’s actions.
Already, $24 billion in clean energy investments have been lost. These investments would have driven manufacturing growth and created not just those manufacturing jobs, but associated supply and service jobs to fund American communities.
And finally, the country that is most likely to benefit from this retreat in US manufacturing is China. China is currently experiencing a boom in EV manufacturing, and recently became the largest auto exporting country in the world due to Western refusal to take high-tech manufacturing seriously. The more the US retreats from manufacturing the vehicles that the whole world wants, the more China will be happy to pick up the slack. And if we stick to this unwise direction, today’s firings will only be a fraction of the misery brought upon America by republican actions.
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The Super-ONE may be Honda’s smallest and most affordable EV, but with new features like Boost Mode, this electric hot hatch punches well above its weight.
Meet Honda’s new electric hot hatch, the Super-ONE
Honda revealed the Super-ONE prototype at the Japan Mobility Show on Wednesday, claiming it will offer a new type of driving experience.
I know, I know. We’ve heard it so many times from different brands that their latest concept will be a game-changer, but this one is real. And it will begin rolling out next year.
Honda said the electric hot hatch has already undergone “extensive testing” under various conditions in Japan, the UK, and other parts of Asia.
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We actually caught a glimpse of it in July at the Goodwood Festival of Speed. The Super EV Concept, as it was called at the time, took part in the hill climb event, debuting a funky new look.
The EV hot hatch is based on the N-One, Honda’s retro-looking electric kei car. Honda gave the compact EV a bold new look, adding a body kit that makes it look much bigger than it actually is. The Super-ONE offers much more than that the company promises.
The Honda Super-ONE (Source: Honda)
Honda said the name Super-ONE represents its aspirations to create an EV that “transcends conventional norms and standards (“super”) and delivers customer value unique only to Honda (“one and only”).
One of the coolest features is the new Boost Mode, which Honda exclusively designed for the electric hot hatch. When activated, it simulates the jerking and sounds of a gas engine with a simulated 7-speed transmission and an added Active Sound Control system.
The Honda Super-ONE (Source: Honda)
Similar to Hyundai’s N Grin Boost on the IONIQ 5 N, Honda said the Boost Mode feature unlocks the vehicle’s full power output. To top it off, Honda included dedicated features, such as a triple-gauge cluster and unique lighting, that activate during Boost Mode.
The interior of the Honda Super-ONE (Source: Honda)
Inside, the Super-ONE features sports seats exclusively designed for the model and a new horizontal instrument panel.
Starting in 2026, Honda will launch the production model in Japan, followed by other regions where demand for compact EVs is on the rise, such as the UK and Asia.
Honda has yet to reveal specific details, but given the N-One is 3,395 mm (133.7″) long, you can expect the new model to arrive roughly the same size.
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