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During monsoon, or even otherwise, there have been innumerable times that have we stepped out of our homes without an umbrella only to find the rain surprising us. To add to our troubles, on days even the weather forecasts have been bad at predicting the chances of rain and have let us down miserably. Now, scientists at the Google-owned London lab DeepMind have developed a forecasting system based on artificial intelligence (AI) that, they claim, can tell more accurately than the existing systems if there is any likelihood of rain in the next two hours.

To develop the AI-based “nowcasting” system, scientists at DeepMind have partnered with the meteorologists working in the 24/7 operational centre at the Met Office (the UK’s national meteorology service).

The report of the study was published in the journal Nature. It says that high-resolution forecasting of rainfall up to two hours ahead, known as precipitation nowcasting, is crucial and goes on to add that four consecutive radar observations of the past 20 minutes are used as context for a generator to estimate if rainfall is expected in the next 90 minutes.

The report also states that “using statistical, economic, and cognitive measures” the system “provides improved forecast quality, forecast consistency, and forecast value, providing fast and accurate short-term predictions at lead times where existing methods struggle”.

To train and evaluate nowcasting models over the UK, the system used radar composites collected every five minutes between January 1, 2016, and December 31. 2019. The report stated that the DeepMind team’s model provided “improved forecast quality, forecast consistency, and forecast value”, and, “using a systematic evaluation by more than 50 expert meteorologists”, was accurate in 89 percent of cases against two existing rain prediction systems.

However, the report also states that there are challenges for this approach to probabilistic nowcasting. Though, through meteorologist assessment, the system proved to be good at skillful predictions compared to other solutions, “the prediction of heavy precipitation at long lead times remains difficult for all approaches”. But the scientists hope that their “work will serve as a foundation for new data, code and verification methods — as well as the greater integration of machine learning and environmental science in forecasting larger sets of environmental variables — that makes it possible to both provide competitive verification and operational utility”.


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Scientists Predict Under Sea Volcano Eruption Near Oregon Coast in 2025

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Scientists Predict Under Sea Volcano Eruption Near Oregon Coast in 2025

An undersea volcano situated roughly 470 kilometers off Oregon’s coastline, Axial Seamount, is showing signs of imminent activity. Researchers have noted telltale signals such as ground deformation, heightened seismic activity, and magma accumulation beneath the surface. These observations have led to a forecast suggesting that the volcano could erupt as early as 2025. This prediction represents a significant milestone in volcanic monitoring, as it is rare for scientists to anticipate eruptions with such precision.

Advanced Monitoring Reveals Key Indicators

According to the study Axial Seamount Has Suddenly Woken Up! An Update on the Latest Inflation and Seismic Data and a New Eruption Forecast presented at the American Geophysical Union meeting, Axial Seamount is among the most closely monitored submarine volcanoes globally. Instruments installed on the seafloor record real-time data, enabling scientists to study its activity continuously. Notable patterns, such as surface swelling and earthquake swarms similar to those preceding the volcano’s 2015 eruption, have been observed again, suggesting a repeat event may be on the horizon.

Insights from Predictive Technologies

As per reports, the potential eruption has also spurred advancements in predictive models. Artificial intelligence is being employed to analyse seismic data collected during the 2015 eruption. This technology has identified specific patterns linked to magma movement, which could refine forecasting accuracy. Researchers view Axial Seamount as a critical testing ground for these innovations, which, if successful, could inform strategies for monitoring other volcanic systems.

Potential Impacts and Global Significance

While Axial Seamount poses minimal immediate threat to human populations, the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, which caused a Pacific-wide tsunami, underscores the need for preparedness. Enhanced forecasting could provide timely warnings for coastal regions at risk. As the forecasted eruption draws closer, efforts to monitor and study the volcano will continue, with findings expected to have implications far beyond the Pacific Northwest.

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Organic Molecules in Space: A Key to Understanding Life’s Cosmic Origins

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Organic Molecules in Space: A Key to Understanding Life’s Cosmic Origins

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Organic Molecules in Space: A Key to Understanding Life's Cosmic Origins

As researchers delve into the cosmos, organic molecules—the building blocks of life—emerge as a recurring theme, hinting at answers to some of science’s most profound questions. Recent studies, including data from missions like the European Space Agency’s Rosetta and NASA’s Osiris-Rex, continue to reveal the ubiquity of these compounds across the universe. According to reports, these discoveries shed light on how planets like Earth may have acquired the raw materials for life long before the Sun formed.

Cosmic Origins of Organic Molecules

As reported in Quanta Magazine, researchers have traced these molecules to interstellar clouds, comets and asteroids. These celestial objects serve as reservoirs for the compounds that constitute biological systems. Rosetta’s mission to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko detected 44 distinct organic molecules, including glycine—a precursor to proteins—and dimethyl sulfide, a compound associated with biological activity on Earth. Such findings emphasise that life’s precursors existed in space long before planets formed.

Asteroids: Organic Richness

Asteroids also harbor an abundance of organic materials. Studies of samples returned by Japan’s Hayabusa2 and NASA’s Osiris-Rex missions revealed tens of thousands of organic compounds on asteroids Ryugu and Bennu. According to Philippe Schmitt-Kopplin of the Technical University of Munich, in a statement to Quanta Magazine, this demonstrates that “everything possible from which life could emerge” exists in space. Ryugu, for example, yielded 15 amino acids, crucial for life’s building blocks.

Molecular Evolution in Space

Organic molecules form through two primary pathways: combustion-like reactions in dying stars and on icy dust grains in molecular clouds. In the latter process, radiation and cosmic rays trigger the formation of molecules like methanol on these icy grains. Research demonstrated that glycine, the simplest amino acid, can form under such conditions, underscoring the molecular complexity present even before star systems emerged.

Organic Molecules in Planetary Birthplaces

Protoplanetary disks, the regions where stars and planets form, are rich with organic compounds. Observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) have identified methanol and other molecules in these disks. Computational models suggest these compounds survive the chaotic processes of planetary formation and continue to evolve chemically, enhancing the potential for life.

Clues for Astrobiology

The discovery of complex organics has profound implications for astrobiology. These molecules may serve as biosignatures, pointing to potential life beyond Earth. Upcoming missions like NASA’s Dragonfly to Saturn’s moon Titan aim to explore organic compounds in environments conducive to life, such as hydrocarbon lakes and thick atmospheres.

Ultimately, the universality of organic chemistry reinforces the idea that life’s building blocks are not unique to Earth, offering hope that life may exist elsewhere in the universe.

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ISRO’s Spadex Mission to Demonstrate Satellite Docking on December 30

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ISRO's Spadex Mission to Demonstrate Satellite Docking on December 30

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is set to close the year with the Spadex mission, scheduled for launch at 9:58 pm on December 30 from the Sriharikota spaceport. This mission involves two satellites, SDX01 (Chaser) and SDX02 (Target), aimed at demonstrating docking capabilities in orbit. By showcasing the alignment, connection, and power transfer between these satellites, the mission is expected to pave the way for future endeavours, including the Chandrayaan-4 and the proposed Bharatiya Antariksh Station.

Mission Details and Objectives

According to reports, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C60) will place the 220-kg satellites into a 470-km circular orbit. The satellites will begin by separating to a distance of 10–20 km using relative velocity adjustments provided by the rocket. The Target satellite’s propulsion system will then maintain this distance to prevent further drift, marking the start of what is referred to as the “far rendezvous.” Gradual approaches by the Chaser satellite will follow, reducing the gap in calculated stages until docking is achieved.

Once docked, the satellites will demonstrate electrical power transfer and joint spacecraft control. Following separation, both satellites will operate their respective payloads, which are designed to function for two years.

Technological Highlights and Payloads

The Spadex mission is reported to employ innovative technologies, including docking mechanisms and advanced sensors, ensuring precision during the docking process. A relative orbit determination and propagation system, based on navigation constellations, is also part of this mission. The Chaser satellite features a high-resolution miniature surveillance camera, while the Target satellite carries a multispectral payload for monitoring vegetation and natural resources. A radiation monitor onboard the Target will collect space radiation data for analysis.

Additional Experiments

As per several reports, the rocket’s final stage will host experiments involving 24 payloads, including a robotic arm for debris capture and a study on seed germination and plant growth. The mission marks a significant leap in demonstrating small satellite docking, a challenging feat requiring precise control and coordination.

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