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During monsoon, or even otherwise, there have been innumerable times that have we stepped out of our homes without an umbrella only to find the rain surprising us. To add to our troubles, on days even the weather forecasts have been bad at predicting the chances of rain and have let us down miserably. Now, scientists at the Google-owned London lab DeepMind have developed a forecasting system based on artificial intelligence (AI) that, they claim, can tell more accurately than the existing systems if there is any likelihood of rain in the next two hours.

To develop the AI-based “nowcasting” system, scientists at DeepMind have partnered with the meteorologists working in the 24/7 operational centre at the Met Office (the UK’s national meteorology service).

The report of the study was published in the journal Nature. It says that high-resolution forecasting of rainfall up to two hours ahead, known as precipitation nowcasting, is crucial and goes on to add that four consecutive radar observations of the past 20 minutes are used as context for a generator to estimate if rainfall is expected in the next 90 minutes.

The report also states that “using statistical, economic, and cognitive measures” the system “provides improved forecast quality, forecast consistency, and forecast value, providing fast and accurate short-term predictions at lead times where existing methods struggle”.

To train and evaluate nowcasting models over the UK, the system used radar composites collected every five minutes between January 1, 2016, and December 31. 2019. The report stated that the DeepMind team’s model provided “improved forecast quality, forecast consistency, and forecast value”, and, “using a systematic evaluation by more than 50 expert meteorologists”, was accurate in 89 percent of cases against two existing rain prediction systems.

However, the report also states that there are challenges for this approach to probabilistic nowcasting. Though, through meteorologist assessment, the system proved to be good at skillful predictions compared to other solutions, “the prediction of heavy precipitation at long lead times remains difficult for all approaches”. But the scientists hope that their “work will serve as a foundation for new data, code and verification methods — as well as the greater integration of machine learning and environmental science in forecasting larger sets of environmental variables — that makes it possible to both provide competitive verification and operational utility”.


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A Nearby Supernova May End Dark Matter Search, Claims New Study

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A Nearby Supernova May End Dark Matter Search, Claims New Study

The pursuit of understanding dark matter, which comprises 85 percent of the universe’s mass, could take a significant leap forward with a nearby supernova. Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, led by Associate Professor of Physics Benjamin Safdi, have theorised that the elusive particle known as the axion might be detected within moments of gamma rays being emitted from such an event. Axions, predicted to emerge during the collapse of a massive star’s core into a neutron star, could transform into gamma rays in the presence of intense magnetic fields, offering a potential breakthrough in physics.

Potential Role of Gamma-Ray Telescopes

The study was published in Physical Review Letters and revealed that the gamma rays produced from axions could confirm the particle’s mass and properties if detected. The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, currently the only gamma-ray observatory in orbit, would need to be pointed directly at the supernova, with the likelihood of this alignment estimated at only 10 percent. A detection would revolutionise dark matter research, while the absence of gamma rays would constrain the range of axion masses, rendering many existing dark matter experiments redundant.

Challenges in Catching the Event

For detection, the supernova must occur within the Milky Way or its satellite galaxies—an event averaging once every few decades. The last such occurrence, supernova 1987A, lacked sensitive enough gamma-ray equipment. Safdi emphasised the need for preparedness, proposing a constellation of satellites, named GALAXIS, to ensure 24/7 sky coverage.

Axion’s Theoretical Importance

The axion, supported by theories like quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and string theory, bridges gaps in physics, potentially linking gravity with quantum mechanics. Unlike neutrinos, axions could convert into photons in strong magnetic fields, providing unique signals. Laboratory experiments like ABRACADABRA and ALPHA are also probing for axions, but their sensitivity is limited compared to the scenario of a nearby supernova. Safdi expressed urgency, noting that missing such an event could delay axion detection by decades, underscoring the high stakes of this astrophysical endeavour.

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Fastest-Moving Stars in the Galaxy May be Piloted by Aliens, New Study Suggests

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Fastest-Moving Stars in the Galaxy May be Piloted by Aliens, New Study Suggests

Intelligent extraterrestrial civilisations might be utilising stars as massive interstellar vehicles to explore the galaxy, according to a theory proposed by Clement Vidal, a philosopher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium. His research suggests that alien species could potentially accelerate their binary star systems to traverse vast cosmic distances. While such a concept is purely hypothetical and unproven, Vidal’s recent paper, which has not undergone peer review, raises intriguing possibilities about advanced extraterrestrial engineering.

Concept of Moving Star Systems

The study was published in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. As per a report by LiveScience, the idea revolves around the notion that alien civilisations, instead of building spacecraft for interstellar travel, might manipulate entire star systems to travel across the galaxy. Vidal highlights binary star systems, particularly those involving neutron stars and smaller companion stars, as ideal candidates. Neutron stars, due to their immense gravitational energy, could serve as anchors for devices designed to propel the system by selectively ejecting stellar material.

Vidal explained in the paper that uneven heating or manipulation of magnetic fields on a star’s surface could cause it to eject material in one direction. This process would create a reactionary thrust, propelling the binary system in the opposite direction. The concept provides a way to travel while preserving planetary ecosystems, making it a theoretically viable method for species reliant on their home systems.

Known Examples with High Velocities

Astronomers have identified hypervelocity stars, such as the pulsars PSR J0610-2100 and PSR J2043+1711, which exhibit high accelerations. While their movements are believed to be natural phenomena, Vidal suggests they could be worth further investigation to rule out potential artificial influences.

This theory adds an unconventional angle to the search for intelligent life, expanding possibilities beyond traditional methods of exploration like searching for signals or probes. The research underscores the importance of considering advanced and unconventional methods aliens might employ to navigate the galaxy.

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Hubble Telescope Finds Unexpectedly Hot Accretion Disk in FU Orionis

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Hubble Telescope Finds Unexpectedly Hot Accretion Disk in FU Orionis

NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope has provided new insights into the young star FU Orionis, located in the constellation Orion. Observations have uncovered extreme temperatures in the inner region of its accretion disk, challenging current models of stellar accretion. Using Hubble’s Cosmic Origins Spectrograph and Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph, astronomers captured far-ultraviolet and near-ultraviolet spectra, revealing the disk’s inner edge to be unexpectedly hot, with temperatures reaching 16,000 kelvins—almost three times the Sun’s surface temperature.

A Star’s Bright Outburst Explained

First observed in 1936, FU Orionis became a hundred times brighter in months and has remained a unique object of study. Unlike typical T Tauri stars, its accretion disk touches the stellar surface due to instabilities. These are caused by the disk’s large mass, interactions with companion stars, or material falling inwards. Lynne Hillenbrand, a co-author from Caltech, in a statement said that the ultraviolet brightness seen exceeded predictions, revealing a highly dynamic interface between the star and its disk.

Implications for Planet Formation

As per a report by NASA, the study holds significant implications for planetary systems forming around such stars. The report further quoted Adolfo Carvalho, lead author of the study, saying that while distant planets in the disk may experience altered chemical compositions due to outbursts, planets forming close to the star could face disruption or destruction. This revised model provides critical insights into the survival of rocky planets in young star systems, he further added.

Future Investigations on FU Orionis

The research team continues to examine spectral emission lines in the collected data, aiming to map gas movement in the star’s inner regions. Hillenbrand noted that FU Orionis offers a unique opportunity to study the mechanisms at play in eruptive young stars. These findings, published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, showcase the ongoing value of Hubble’s ultraviolet capabilities in advancing stellar science.

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