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Originally published on ILSR.org

Nearly 7 gigawatts of new power generation capacity came online in the second quarter of 2021. Renewable energy generation capacity growth was comparable to last quarter, while new fossil gas construction dropped dramatically. In 4 of the last 8 quarters, the fossil gas contribution to new power generation capacity has been less than 10%. It has been two years since fossil fuel plants made up the majority of quarterly added generation capacity.

In the chart below, we illustrate the past two years of new power plant capacity in the US, disaggregated by energy source on a quarterly basis.

Wind Picks Up Large Solar’s Losses

After contributing over 30% of quarterly new power generation capacity for the last three quarters, utility-scale solar has lost some steam. 1.8 gigawatts of utility-scale solar came online this quarter, compared to 2.6 gigawatts in the first quarter of 2021. The solar industry as a whole is facing some supply constraints, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

The development of the wind industry, on the other hand, picked up slightly this quarter. 3.3 gigawatts of wind generation capacity were installed in the second quarter of 2021, compared to just under 3 gigawatts in the previous quarter. Wind power made up nearly half of all generation capacity added this quarter, making wind the largest contributor to new power generation capacity for three straight quarters. All of the wind capacity built out in the second quarter of 2021 was onshore.


Find out how we can Get More Solar by Making Utilities Share Data.


Demand for Distributed Solar is Only Growing

Distributed solar had a strong showing in the second quarter of 2021, showing a slight edge over an already impressive first quarter. The 100 megawatt quarter-over-quarter increase in generation capacity growth can be attributed to increases in residential, commercial, and community solar.


Watch as community solar progresses nationwide in our National Community Solar Programs Tracker.


According to SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, most residential solar was installed in California, Florida, or Texas. In California and Texas, the electric grid has shown itself vulnerable to failure or wildfire-induced shutoffs. Residents recovering from shut-offs and massive grid failures have every reason to find resilience through solar.


Distributed solar, especially when paired with storage, can provide great resilience to residential electric customers. See how installing solar with storage on Puerto Rico’s homes could power the island with 75% renewable energy by 2035 and provide resiliency for all.


The federal solar investment tax credit is not scheduled to step down into 2022, so 2021 may not see the same end of the year solar push as seen in previous years.

Gas Buildout Grinds to a Halt

Only 9 gas plants were built in the second quarter of 2021, with a total nameplate capacity of 346 megawatts — the lowest second quarter for gas on record. Only the third quarters of 2019 and 2020 had lower showings for gas buildout. Could the third quarter of 2021 set a new quarterly low for gas?

Gas has contributed less than 10% of new generation capacity in 4 of the last 8 quarters. Given current trends toward higher gas prices, and proposed federal policy, it is unlikely that conventional fossil gas will ever be a majority of new power plant capacity again.

Interested in earlier trends and analysis of new power plant capacity? Check out our archive, illustrating how electricity generation has changed in previous quarters and years.


This article originally posted at ilsr.org. For timely updates, follow John Farrell on Twitter or get the Energy Democracy weekly update.

Featured Photo Credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr (CC BY-ND 2.0)

 

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

A Wallbox EV charger for electric car is displayed during the “Mondial de l’Auto” at Parc des Expositions on October 15, 2024 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Silicon anodes appear to be leading the way in the race to commercialize next-generation battery technologies for electric vehicles.

The buzz around silicon-based anodes, which promise improved power and faster charging capabilities for EVs, has been growing in recent months — just as the hype around solid-state batteries seems to have fizzled.

It comes as increasing EV sales continue to drive up global battery demand, prompting auto giants to team up with major cell manufacturers on the road to full electrification.

While some OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have inked deals with solid-state battery developers, carmakers such as Mercedes, Porsche and GM have all bet big on silicon anodes to deliver transformative change in the science behind EVs.

A recent report from consultancy IDTechEx described the promise of advanced silicon anode materials as “immense” for improving critical areas of battery performance, noting that this potential hadn’t gone unnoticed by carmakers and key players in the battery industry.

It warned, however, that challenges such as cycle life, shelf life and — perhaps most importantly — cost, need to be addressed for widespread adoption.

Venkat Srinivasan, director of the Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science at the U.S. government’s Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, said silicon anodes appear to have the edge over solid-state batteries.

“If there’s a horse race, silicon does seem to be ahead at least at this moment, but we haven’t commercialized either one of them,” Srinivasan told CNBC via videoconference.

How silicon could enable cheaper EVs, electric flight and more powerful batteries

Srinivasan said five years ago silicon-anode batteries had a calendar life of roughly one year, but recent data appears to show a dramatic improvement in the durability of these materials, with some tests now projecting a three to four-year calendar life.

Unlike the cycle life of a battery, which counts the number of times it can be charged and discharged, the calendar life measures degradation over time. Typically, the calendar life of a battery refers to the period in which it can function at over 80% of its initial capacity, regardless of its usage.

Srinivasan said solid-state batteries, long billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving, still have a long way to go before they can match the recent progress made by silicon anodes.

“That transition still has to be made in solid-state with their metal batteries and that’s why I think you’re hearing from people that, hey, it looks like that promise hasn’t panned out,” Srinivasan said.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t get there. It may happen in a few years. It just means that it feels like today silicon is in a different part of the technology readiness level.”

Silicon anodes vs. solid-state batteries

Analysts say silicon anodes theoretically offer 10 times the energy density as graphite, which are commonly used in battery anodes today. Yet, these same materials typically suffer from rapid degradation when lots of silicon is used.

“Silicon anodes and solid-state batteries are two emerging technology trends in the EV battery market aimed at pushing the boundaries of high-performance battery cells,” Rory McNulty, senior research analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told CNBC via email.

A researcher checks the electromagnet de-ironing machine at the Daejoo Electronic Materials Co. R&D center in Siheung, South Korea, on Thursday, June 22, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

It has typically been the case that better battery performance comes at the cost of longevity or safety, McNulty said. Silicon anodes, for example, are known to swell significantly during charging, which reduces the battery’s longevity.

By comparison, McNulty said solid-state batteries were claimed to greatly improve the stability of the electrolyte to high performance electrode materials, combating the challenges of using high energy density materials such as silicon and lithium.

As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.

Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China.

Georgi Georgiev

Battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets

Japan’s Toyota and Nissan have both said they are aiming to bring solid-state batteries into mass production over the coming years, while China’s SAIC Motor Corp reportedly said in early September that its MG brand would equip cars with solid-state batteries within the next 12 months.

Nonetheless, analysts remain skeptical about when solid-state batteries will actually make it to market.

A strategic opportunity?

“Silicon based anodes promise to be the next-generation technology in the anode field, providing a solution for faster charging,” Georgi Georgiev, battery raw materials analyst at consultancy Fastmarkets, told CNBC via email.

Georgiev said several industry players have been looking into the potential of silicon anodes, from well-established anode suppliers in China and South Korea to new players like Taiwan’s ProLogium and U.S. manufacturers Group14 and Sila Nanotechnologies.

“Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China, which dominates the graphite-based anode supply chains with Chinese anode producers holding 98% of the global anode market for batteries,” Georgiev said.

“However, there are significant technical challenges going to 100% silicon anode such as silicon expansion affecting the longevity of the batteries and currently there are several routes to produce silicon anodes,” he added.

A FEV x ProLogium Technology Co. 100% silicon composite anode next-generation battery at the Paris Motor Show in Paris, France, on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium debuted the world’s first fully silicon anode battery at the Paris Motor Show last month, saying it’s new fast-charging battery system not only surpassed traditional lithium-ion batteries in performance and charging efficiency but also “critical industry challenges.”

ProLogium, citing test data, said it’s 100% silicon anode battery could charge from 5% to 60% in just 5 minutes, and reach 80% in 8.5 minutes. It described the advancement as an “unmatched achievement in the competitive EV market,” which will help to reduce charging times and extend the range of EVs.

Fastmarkets’ Georgiev said a big question mark over the commercialization of silicon anodes is the cost of production and whether any of the major silicon-anode producers “could produce material at scale with a consistent quality and at a competitive price — [a] major requirements of OEMs.”

“At this stage silicon anodes are used more as an additive to graphite-based anodes and in the years to come we expect to see increase of silicon share in anode, but in combination with graphite, while 100% silicon anodes will take longer time to enter the mass market,” he added.

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal

Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters

Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.

The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.

The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.

The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”

Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.

The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.

Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.

The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.

The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.

OPEC chief says delayed December output hike is 'nothing unusual'

“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”

The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!

Today’s episode is the first with our new title sponsor, BLUETTI – a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems.

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonusLucid proves than an EV company can keep its promises while Xiaomi teams up with Chevrolet and Honda to prove – at least conceptually – that records are made to be broken. audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

Read more: Renewables now make up 30% of US utility-scale generating capacity

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