The golden rule of Boris Johnson’s Conservatives is that an otherwise disparate party is at its most happy when it’s talking about Brexit and its consequences.
At times of stress, it’s the trump card the PM routinely reaches for. Given the stage of the country, expect it to feature heavily during the party conference.
As the prime minister heads to Manchester in what would conventionally be an extraordinarily troublesome backdrop – fuel shortages, supply line disruption, containers mounting up at ports, food shortages for months, lack of medicines in pharmacies culling pigs where they live rather than in slaughter houses due to a lack of labour meaning they become pet food not pork – he will seek to turn this to his advantage.
Mr Johnson wants to boil this down into an argument over migration he believes he can win – the Tories will continue to control numbers coming in from overseas in the hope competition drives up wages, Labour would let in more workers from abroad to fill the vacancies, undercutting domestic workers.
It is a bold gambit, not without its risks. No matter the argument doesn’t fix the problems at hand or fill empty shelves. No matter that his government has had to increase visa numbers and relax conditions to entice migrant labour twice in a fortnight. No matter that Labour is not actually proposing a return to free movement or unlimited migration, though he is helped by their line being inconsistent. No matter that some economists would argue constraining labour supply when inflation is rising could lead to a stagnant economy.
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The argument over the involvement of Brexit will be nuanced, and he won’t say the shortages are a consequence of it. Instead he will make clear Brexit allowed the ending of free movement which stops overseas low-wage migration being part of the solution under his government.
Mr Johnson believes he has found a politically-winning dividing line up to a 2023 or 2024 election, so expect to hear variations of it from the conference podium and fringe events through the week. If he can show by the time of the next election wages have risen, he believes voters will thank him.
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The prime minister’s business secretary gave a foretaste of the argument in a pre-conference interview with Conservative Home.
Kwasi Kwarteng put the supply line crisis, flashing amber and red in different sectors in the briefings for minister, down to a “transition” as the UK “rejects a low-wage high immigration economic model”.
He goes on: “You’re quite right to say people are resisting that, particularly employers that were benefiting from an influx of labour that could keep wages low,” in remarks that will leave many industry associations reeling.
And what if the shortages cause disruption? “All you can do, other than take various emergency measures, is tough it out,” said Mr Kwarteng.
Faced with a crisis, this prime minister loves nothing more than to try and “tough it out”, so expect little backing down at conference, but if Christmas retail is disrupted in the way some predict, it could still be a choppy autumn for the Conservatives. But first he wants to use the extraordinary platform which Manchester affords.
The prime minister is entering Tory conference in as strong a position as any Conservative leader since David Cameron in October 2015. The Conservatives are eight percentage points of Labour in YouGov’s latest poll. The party enjoys huge leads in everyone over 50, with three times as many over-65s voting Tory as Labour. Almost nobody who voted Tory in 2019 says they will vote Labour now (at 2% this figure is within the margin of error of zero) with four times as many voters deserting to Richard Tice’s right-wing Reform party.
That does not mean that Mr Johnson is in an unassailable position. Slowly Sir Keir’s ratings have been catching up with Mr Johnson’s in the YouGov tracker. Some 52% said they disapprove of the government compared to 26% approving. It would not take much volatility for ‘red wall’ MPs, elected because Labour got the worst defeat since 1935 in the 2019 general election, to start to wobble. Politics can spiral.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer is slowly gaining on the PM in polls
This is not happening yet, and almost certainly will not happen in the confines of the Manchester Conference Centre. Tory MPs I’ve spoken are asking little more than that the prime minister empathises with cost of living pressures in his speech. Mr Johnson’s reshuffle confirmed he rules his party now, beholden to no one, hearing little meaningful dissent and happy to promote potential future rivals who can all compete to succeed.
So expect Manchester to be an Instagram beauty pageant, of Rishi Sunak’s diffident one-liners pitted against Liz Truss intoning to the ideologically faithful, all beautifully presented in picture form. Try and spot the work being put into the brands of people who consider themselves contenders to the Johnson throne while also waiting for Michael Gove to hit the dancefloor again.
With the lobbyists cooing complements and the faithful cheering, the Tory party conference is a long way from the real world. Mr Johnson will want to enjoy it.
Proponents of a bill to regulate stablecoins in the US Congress will likely take up another vote on the legislation in a matter of days without responding to concerns about President Donald Trump’s financial ties to the cryptocurrency industry.
The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, failed to get enough votes to pass in the US Senate on May 8 amid calls from some Democratic lawmakers to halt any legislation related to digital assets until Republicans could address Trump’s potential conflicts of interest.
Immediately following the vote, some lawmakers from both parties suggested they could reconsider the bill as early as this week, but without agreeing on a bipartisan path forward.
After the GENIUS Act failed to proceed in a 48 to 49 vote in the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune made a motion to reconsider, setting up a possible vote on the matter within days. A source familiar with the matter told Cointelegraph Republicans who backed the bill were unlikely to modify it to block Trump or any member of his administration from investing in digital assets, claiming it was beyond Congress’s authority under the Constitution.
“[…] this delay is not inherently detrimental,“ said Liat Shetret, vice president of global policy and regulation at blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. “We can expect the bill to return to the floor, with this pause giving both parties time to clarify provisions and address lawmakers’ concerns.”
The Cedar Innovation Foundation, an organization tied to the political action committee (PAC) Fairshake, issued a warning to Senate leadership to “avoid political games” and pass a stablecoin bill “in the coming days.” Fairshake spent more than $131 million to support candidates in the 2024 US elections, some of whom are currently serving in the House and Senate. There are still more than 500 days until the 2026 midterms, when many members of Congress are up for reelection.
On May 12, the Senate resumed consideration of the motion to proceed to consideration of the GENIUS Act, suggesting another vote soon.
Should Republicans in the Senate reintroduce the bill without any changes, it’s unclear whether they would have enough support to clear a 60-vote majority to avoid a Democratic filibuster — a process to delay or sometimes block a vote on a bill.
The Trump family’s ties to the crypto platform World Liberty Financial and its stablecoin, USD1, have raised potential corruption concerns, as has offering the top holders of his TRUMP memecoin the chance to pay for access to the president through an exclusive dinner and reception.
“[…] the Republicans’ bill did nothing to address Trump’s conflict, and instead voted to hand Trump the authority to write the rules over his and his competitors’ stablecoins,” said Democratic Representative Maxine Waters in a May 6 statement. She blocked a hearing to discuss a possible digital asset market structure bill, citing concerns about Trump’s “ownership of crypto.”
Democratic lawmakers have already introduced possible solutions to what they called the “biggest corruption scandal in the history of the White House” — with legislation in the House and Senate to bar members of Congress, the president, the vice president, and their families from profiting off memecoins. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen also reportedly called on the president to fully divest from USD1 before making any possible deals with foreign governments.
The nonpartisan organization State Democracy Defenders Action reported in April that Trump’s crypto holdings were worth roughly $2.9 billion, which accounted for 40% of his wealth. This report came before the launch of World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, which an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm said it would use to settle a $2 billion investment in Binance. Trump’s sons, Eric, Donald Trump Jr., and Barron, were all listed as “Web3 ambassadors” for the platform.
Sir Keir Starmer has rejected the comparison to Enoch Powell after he said the UK was at risk of becoming an “island of strangers” if migration does not come down.
The prime minister’s official spokesperson said migrants have made a “massive contribution” to society but the Tories “lost control of the system” and that is the point he was making.
In the speech, Mr Powell imagined a future multicultural Britain where the white population would find themselves “strangers in their own country” as a result of migration.
Among those to make the comparison was the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who said on X that “Talk of an “island of strangers” shockingly echoes the divisive language of Enoch Powell”.
However, the prime minister’s spokesperson said: “The PM rejects this comparison. He said that migrants have made a massive contribution to society.
“It is also right to say that between 2019 and 2024, the previous government lost control of the system. Migration needs to be controlled, fair and people that come here should integrate.”
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Image: Enoch Powell. Pic: PA
Asked why the prime minister used such robust language, the spokesperson said he was not going to “shy away” from the issue of immigration and the British public want it to be reduced.
He added: “We have welcomed immigrants for decades, but it’s too high and must come down. Also, it’s important for our domestic skills system, which is good for our economy.”
What has the government announced?
Sir Keir made the comment at a news conference in which measures were announced to curb net migration, including banning care homes from recruiting overseas, new English language requirements for visa holders and stricter rules on gaining British citizenship.
The package is aimed at reducing the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year, though the government has not officially set a target.
Who was Enoch Powell?
Enoch Powell was a Tory MP and the shadow defence secretary in the 1960s when a debate was raging about post-war immigration to Britain.
By the late 1960s, hundreds of thousands of Commonwealth citizens had exercised their legal right and settled in Britain, and it led to a quiet clampdown by the Labour government on immigration.
On 20 April 1968, Powell rose to his feet at a meeting of the Conservative Political Centre in Birmingham and declared Britons had “found themselves made strangers in their own country”.
Powell went on to say it had led to a shortage of hospital beds, school places, and “homes and neighbourhoods changed beyond recognition”.
He was swiftly kicked out of the shadow cabinet.
Net migration – the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country – soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020.
It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015.
Sir Keir said parts of the UK’s economy “seem almost addicted to importing cheap labour” rather than investing in skills at home.
However, it is not clear how the government plans to boost the domestic workforce, amid a UK skills shortage and record numbers of people being out of work.
According to the ONS, there are 9.2 million people of working age in the UK who are economically inactive, including 1.8m 18-24 year olds.
The prime minister’s spokesperson said the government is “focused on upskilling British workers” and “especially helping young people in the job sector” but did not elaborate how.
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2:45
PM’s ‘tough’ migration policies explained
On care homes, he said, around 40,000 care workers came over on visas for jobs that did not exist, and companies can recruit from that pool.
Earlier, a number of Labour MPs came to the prime minister’s defence. Rother Valley MP Jake Richards said on X that Sir Keir is “absolutely right to warn of the risk of becoming an ‘island of strangers’.
“Millions of people across the country have similar concerns. This theme must be central to missions across immigration, employment, work and tackling neighbourhood deprivation,” he said.
However former Labour home secretary Lord David Blunkett criticised the rhetoric, saying in a speech at a University of Law graduation ceremony: “I never felt I lived in, or had a part to play in, a country of strangers.
“I thought welcoming people from across the world was a tribute to our society, where people want to make their homes, to build a life and their economy and to contribute to our society.
“I think we need to be kind to each other, but we need a much kinder national world as well.”
Sir Keir Starmer is getting used to falling out with some of his MPs over policy decisions – be it on the winter fuel allowance, his approach to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza or welfare cuts.
But on Tuesday the prime minister found himself embroiled in a row with MPs over something entirely different – his language over immigration.
The prime minister’s argument that Britain “risked becoming an island of strangers” if immigration levels are not cut has sparked a backlash from some of his MPs, and the London mayor Sadiq Khan is alarmed that his own leader is using language similar to that of Enoch Powell.
In his infamous 1968 Rivers Of Blood speech, Powell warned of a future where white people “found themselves made strangers in their own country”.
It was a speech that cost him his shadow cabinet job and made Powell one of the most divisive and controversial politicians in Britain. It is also a speech that the prime minister’s team is now frantically trying to distance itself against, with one insider telling me on Tuesday the PM’s team hadn’t realised the similarity and hadn’t intended the comparison.
The politician the prime minister was trying to channel was about as far away from Powell as you could get in the 1960s, when the debate of immigration and race relations raged. Sir Keir had wanted to echo former Labour home secretary Roy Jenkins who had always argued that immigration was good for Britain, but needed to be done at a speed the country could absorb.
Take this from Jenkins in the House of Commons in 1966: “Let there be no suggestion that immigration, in reasonable numbers, is a cross that we have to bear, and no pretence that if only those who have come could find jobs back at home our problems would be at an end.
“But it does not follow that we can absorb them without limit. We have to strike a balance. That is what we are trying to do and I feel that we have been reasonably successful in recent months. We cannot lay down absolute numerical quantities, but I think that we have struck a reasonable balance and also that in the past year we have made substantial progress towards producing a healthier atmosphere, in terms of integration, on both sides – amongst both the indigenous and the immigrant community.”
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PM’s ‘tough’ migration policies explained
One person familiar with No 10’s approach told me: “We want a more cohesive society, we are not trying to pick fights.
“But the last Conservative government let in 2.3 million immigrants [in the three years to June 2024] and during that time built about 600,000 homes. That creates competition between people and that is typically at the lower end of the market. Just issuing visas and creating a sense of an unfair system is not a way to build cohesiveness.”
If you look at polling from YouGov, it seems the prime minister is more in step with public mood than those in his party criticising him, with 41% of all voters polled on Tuesday about his “island of strangers” remarks agreeing with the sentiment and having no issue with the language.
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28:27
‘We need to reduce immigration’
But it is true too that Labour’s approach lands particularly well with Reform voters, with 61% of them supportive of the PM’s words.
Beyond the battle of language, there will be battles ahead too over whether the prime minister’s policies will help or hinder the economy.
There has long been an assumption that higher net migration is positive of the economy and public finances, but there is growing concern in Number 10 that the benefits are being overstated, as it fails to take into account the additional resources needed for public services and the effect of lowering wages, which affects productivity growth – none of which is factored into the economic forecasts of the Office of Budget Responsibility.
There will be those in business that don’t like the cuts to visas. There will be those in government that will worry about the economic impact of cuts to visas – although the chancellor was on the front row for the prime minister’s speech on Monday. There will be those on the Labour left that will be uncomfortable about it.
I suspect the prime minister will be uncomfortable about the row over his language that has seen him attacked on both sides, as the left accuse him of trying to ape the far right and his opponents accuse him of being a “chameleon” for making the opposite argument on immigration when he was running for the Labour leadership in 2020.
But where his team think they are right is on the policy, and early polling suggests that voters from across the political divide broadly agree.