Liverpool, Man City put on a show, Luis Suarez humbles Barcelona
What a weekend! It feels like we say this every weekend, but it was especially true here. Liverpool and Manchester City put on a show, Atletico Madrid (in particular Luis Suarez) made a statement vs. Barcelona and Cristiano Ronaldo made a scene after Manchester United‘s frustrating home draw vs. Everton. Elsewhere, Bayern Munich were beaten (but don’t worry), Borussia Dortmund won (and they should worry), Real Madrid lost again and Paris Saint-Germain‘s billion-dollar team was humbled by Rennes.
– ESPN+ viewers’ guide: LaLiga, Bundesliga, MLS, FA Cup, more
– Stream ESPN FC Daily on ESPN+ (U.S. only)
– Don’t have ESPN? Get instant access
It’s Monday, and Gab Marcotti reacts to the biggest moments in the world of football.
Jump to: Liverpool-Man City | Suarez beats Barcelona | Bayern lose | Milan are back! | Real Madrid woe | Ronaldo’s sulking | PSG misfire | Dortmund need a Plan B | Arsenal need time | Lucky Inter | Leverkusen keep rolling | Napoli still perfect | Chelsea’s depth steps up | Locatelli lifts Juve | Son stars for Spurs
Talent runs rampant when Liverpool play Man City
It finished 2-2, but unless you were a fan of either club, the result wasn’t the main thing. What mattered to most neutrals at the final whistle was the spectacle to which we had been treated by Jurgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola and their players. From Mohamed Salah‘s goal and weak-foot finish, to the Bernardo Silva run and shimmy that set up Phil Foden amid a crowd of red shirts, there was so much to please the eye.
– Ogden: Liverpool vs. Man City is now a great rivalry
But make no mistake about it, this wasn’t just about entertainment, technical ability unleashed or even the aesthetic smorgasbord it was. This was putting talent at the service of a game plan. Guardiola mixed it up, deploying Jack Grealish at center-forward — almost as if to troll the “recognized striker” brigade. City dominated a first half that finished scoreless, but could easily have seen them a couple goals up at the break. It’s not that Liverpool were poor in the first 45 minutes, it’s just that City were superior by several orders of magnitude.
Then came the break and Liverpool got back into the game, powered by an irrepressible Salah, who set up Sadio Mane‘s goal and then notched his own “Goal of the Season” contender. Both times City equalized, first with Foden, then with Kevin De Bruyne. And then, heading to injury time, came Rodri‘s last-ditch block of Fabinho‘s shot, sealing the 2-2 draw.
View the game strictly through the lens of merit and City deserved three points. Not just for the chances created (Alisson had to make several more super saves, De Bruyne sent a wide open header over the bar), but because James Milner stayed on the pitch rather than being sent off.
Milner was deputising for the unavailable Trent Alexander-Arnold and he had one of the roughest afternoons of his (recent) career, with Foden repeatedly getting away from him. Milner was booked once and he twice escaped an additional booking: once when Foden was through at the edge of the box (referee Paul Tierney didn’t even see a foul) and once when he hacked down Bernardo Silva, who did a 180 in the air and landed, literally, on his head.
Milner is a tremendous professional and a very likeable man whose selflessness and versatility, at age 35, are commendable. But that doesn’t change the fact that he was very lucky not to have been sent off (you hope it was just Tierney getting it wrong rather than some misguided attempt by the referee “not wanting to spoil the game” by keeping it 11 vs. 11). With a man advantage, it would have been hard to see City not taking home all three points. But that’s the sort of cold analysis that doesn’t seem right after what these two teams served up. Better then to talk about the performances.
0:34
Julien Laurens struggles to understand why some fans spoil games of football by abusing or spitting at the opposition.
Liverpool started slow, but reacted well, which is what you expect from teams of this caliber. Alexander-Arnold was missed as was, especially in this sort of game, the calm and quality of Thiago Alcantara. But they were fearless, committed and, crucially, unflustered, even after enduring that rough first half. That’s the sort of quality you see in champions.
As for City, it’s important to put this in context. In the past week they faced Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool — as good a trio of opponents as they’re likely to face this season. They beat Chelsea, lost to PSG and split the spoils with Liverpool, but in each game, they showed the ability to outplay quality opposition for long stretches. And, in a very Pep way, each time they did it with an entirely different look.
At Stamford Bridge, Foden led the line, with Gabriel Jesus and Grealish wide. In Paris, it was Grealish and Riyad Mahrez wide, with Raheem Sterling through the middle. And at Anfield, it was Grealish in the center-forward role, flanked by Foden and Gabriel Jesus. When you can throw so many different looks at the opposition without a drop in performance, you’re on to something special.
It was unmistakable. Having made it 2-0 against his former club, Luis Suarez initially didn’t celebrate — he’d later say it was a mark of respect for Barcelona, where he spent six seasons. Then, as he jogged back, he put his hand to his ear, middle fingers folded in, thumb and pinkie extended in the classic “telephone gesture.” The reference was obvious. It was Ronald Koeman, in the summer of 2020, who told Suarez — then a Barca player — over the course of a two-minute phone call that his services were no longer needed at the club. Not only did Suarez end up leaving for nothing, and joining Atletico, but Barca literally paid him several million just to go away.
It’s obviously not all on Koeman — Barca were (and are) hemorrhaging money, Suarez was on a big contract, the decision was clearly made above the manager’s head — but it was the Dutchman’s voice that Suarez heard on the phone. And that was more than enough.
1:21
Ale Moreno saw nothing from Barcelona to suggest the players ever believed they could beat Atletico Madrid.
In the grand scheme of things, this ignominy is at the bottom of Koeman’s laundry list of problems. It’s not so much the league table — defeat to Atletico leaves them eighth, but if they win their game in hand, they’re fourth — but the Champions League performances (two games, two defeats, zero goal scored and seven conceded) and the one victory in their last six in all competitions. And it’s that intangible sense that the only reason that he’s still in a job is because Barca remain close to insolvency and firing Koeman and hiring a replacement costs money — money they’d rather not spend unless they absolutely have to.
As for the game itself, Koeman’s decisions on Saturday blew up in his face. He stuck the youngster Nico alongside the veteran Sergio Busquets, with Frenkie De Jong out on the right. The idea, you presume, was to slow down Yannick Carrasco, Joao Felix and Thomas Lemar; it did no such thing and, in fact, that’s where Atleti’s first-half goals came from.
Why you would reinvent arguably your most important player in a role he’s never played before is one of the many mysteries of Koeman lore. By the time he fixed it at the break, sending on Sergi Roberto, Atletico were 2-0 up and more than comfortable sitting back.
It’s tough to know where you go from here. There were bright spots that maybe shouldn’t be forgotten. Philippe Coutinho started again and actually looked quite dangerous (though, again, he’s the guy who came off to make way for Ansu Fati with half an hour to go). Fati himself, you hope, will be ready to start after the international break. And sure, this wasn’t a game Barca expected to win (or even get points from), but the sense that Barca don’t score unless Memphis Depay wears his super hero cape, and Barca won’t keep opponents out no matter how many guys Koeman sticks in front of his defence, is hard to shake.
As for Atletico, Simeone deserves a ton of credit both for reading the game correctly — dropping Antoine Griezmann was overdue, but still took courage, as did trusting Joao Felix — and for, lest we forget, generating their first convincing 90-minute performance since August. Yes: between late goals, lucky breaks and refereeing errors, it had been that long since they logged such a comprehensive victory.
Call it the randomness of football. A late Filip Kostic goal meant Bayern were defeated at home by Eintracht Frankfurt. The visitors deserved the win for the intensity, energy and quality they displayed. At the same time, Bayern did not play poorly and, in fact, this game could have gone either way. Yes, both things can be true.
Given the perfectionist Bavarian media, you imagine some will question Julian Nagelsmann’s lack of rotation, or whether Niklas Sule can be an efficient right-back against opponents who sit deep. And sure: when you give up a lead at home and you’re Bayern, there will always be criticism. But as I see it, Kevin Trapp made some unbelievable saves, Bayern created plenty of chances and, as the old cliche goes, the other guys are also trying to win.
So Bayern may as well take it on the chin and move one. As long as it doesn’t become a habit, there’s no reason to be concerned.
Milan’s young guns take down Atalanta as well
Fresh off a crushing — and controversial — Champions League defeat to Atletico Madrid, the last team you’d likely want to face are Atalanta and their mile-a-minute intensity, which Pep Guardiola famously compared to a “trip to the dentist.” But this Milan side, as their coach Stefano Pioli put it, manage to be young without “acting young” and their win over Atalanta was more comprehensive than the 3-2 scoreline suggests.
The likes of Fikayo Tomori, Mike Maignan, Brahim Diaz, Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao again looked impressive, though for me, it was Sandro Tonali who stole the show, showing just why folks raved about him when he was a teenager, comparing him to one Andrea Pirlo.
They’re also confounding the critics, and it’s worth reminding themselves that they’re doing it without Gianluigi Donnarumma (by choice) as well as Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Olivier Giroud (by injury). Their decision to trust in youth and quality rather than big names is being rewarded with their best start in 17 years.
You wonder what happens when Ibrahimovic returns. He’ll get into the team you imagine, but in many ways this is no longer Zlatan’s Milan. It’s a different side. And if they’re going to succeed, it’s likely he’ll have to adapt to them rather than the other way around.
Real Madrid beaten as their hunt for balance continues
1:16
Luis Garcia explains where Real Madrid fell short in their shock 2-1 defeat against Espanyol.
I’ve lost count of the different versions of Real Madrid that Carlo Ancelotti has served up this season. Against Espanyol on Saturday, he brought Lucas Vazquez back at right-back, moved Nacho inside with David Alaba wide, dropped Casemiro and played a 4-4-2 with Toni Kroos and Luka Modric flanked by Fede Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga. The outcome was a 2-1 defeat that could have been heavier if not for Karim Benzema‘s solo effort and what Ancelotti himself described as Madrid’s “worst performance of the season.”
It certainly was far worse than the shock defeat against Sheriff Tiraspol, a match Real Madrid dominated.
You can see what Ancelotti was trying to do in alternative solutions for when Casemiro needs a break (he was on the bench and, based on his recent performances, he most definitely needed one). It’s just that even with so much talent, you still need chemistry and, at the very least, time together on the pitch.
Taken individually, all his moves, to varying degrees, make sense. Taken collectively, they backfired badly against a well-organised Espanyol. The good news is that they’re still top. The bad news is that at some point he’s going to need to settle on some sort of backbone for this team.
Glum Ronaldo overshadows Man United’s home draw vs. Everton
0:40
Stevie Nicol has doubts over Man United’s squad depth as they give up a lead in their draw with Everton.
When you sign Cristiano Ronaldo and he doesn’t start and you don’t win, you know what’s coming. Just ask the three guys who coached Juve in the past three seasons. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer knows this, and he probably knows that the fact Ronaldo looked disconsolate at the final whistle after the 1-1 draw with Everton has more to do with the home draw than the fact that he came on as a substitute. And that giving him the occasional time off is not just inevitable; it’s the right thing to do at age 36.
– Dawson: Ronaldo can’t rescue Man United off the bench
More problematic, as I see it, were the defensive wobbles from a back line that was only missing Harry Maguire, and a starting XI missing not just Ronaldo, but Paul Pogba and Jadon Sancho, too. Along with Bruno Fernandes, those are United’s most gifted individuals. What made him think Everton would be such pushovers that he could easily dispense with their services?
0:49
Gab Marcotti feels Ole Gunnar Solskjaer needs to stay humble to keep Manchester United fans on his side.
Picking Anthony Martial down the left ahead of Sancho is especially perplexing. United’s record signing has started just one Premier League game since August. Against Rafa Benitez’ predictably organized defensive system, one would have thought Sancho’s individual trickery and creativity would be a better fit than Martial, who these days is much more a forward than a winger anyway.
Who knows? Maybe it suits Solskjaer that folks are needlessly focusing so much on Ronaldo’s body language that they’re overlooking United’s other shortcomings in this game.
Reality bites for Messi, Neymar and Mbappe
Maybe, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really matter since prior to Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at Rennes, PSG had won all eight of their games in Ligue 1. They still have a six-point lead and it’s early October. So why not take the afternoon off against Rennes, who had won just once since August?
It certainly looked as if that’s what Neymar did. Lionel Messi hit the woodwork, but also faded as the game wore on. Kylian Mbappe at least showed some bite after missing a sitter, but goals just before and just after the break condemned PSG. This is something Mauricio Pochettino will have to deal with as the season goes on: with those three guys up front, some games will be boom (a moment of genius) or bust (when’s the next Champions League fixture?).
Maybe the solution will necessarily be more rotation and days off, especially after Champions League fixtures and before international breaks, perhaps with more room for Mauro Icardi. Otherwise, the risk is more days like Sunday, which might not affect who wins the Ligue 1 crown, but is simply deflating.
1:38
Julien Laurens explains all about Kylian Mbappe’s future after the forward confirmed he asked to leave PSG in July.
Three points, but no Plan B for Dortmund vs. Augsburg
Erling Haaland is one of several players unavailable to Borussia Dortmund and coach Marco Rose right now. And because it’s not as if there’s an off-brand Haaland alternative waiting to come off the bench, when he’s not there, Dortmund necessarily need to play differently. That’s not easy to do, but hey, you’re managing in the Bundesliga, your club moved heaven and Earth to get you, you’re Marco Rose — get it done.
Only he hasn’t, and it didn’t work again for the visit of lowly Augsburg. Marco Reus hit the woodwork and Dortmund took plenty of shots, but they did little in terms of attacking fluidity and were helped by a goalkeeping error and the gift of an early penalty. This team is nowhere near their ceiling and there’s still lots of work to be done, both with Haaland and without him.
Arsenal revival continues, but Brighton draw reminds us they need time
1:19
Steve Nicol explains why Arsenal can be happy with a well-earned point at Brighton.
It might seem counter-intuitive to speak of an Arsenal revival on a day when Brighton outplayed them for long stretches in a 0-0 draw, and on a day when they created little on the attacking end (thanks to a poor day at the office from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang), but this was the sort of game you could easily see them lose earlier in the campaign.
That they didn’t and, in fact, might even have won if Emile Smith Rowe had made a different choice late in the match, speaks volumes about how far they’ve come… and how far they have yet to go. Brighton may not be better than Arsenal man-for-man, but they are a better side right now; they’re a more cohesive unit and better coached, too. The operative words being “right now.”
Mikel Arteta has work to do, but the spirit seems to be there and the raw material. It’s a long way back to the top four, let alone the top.
Inter Milan ride luck — and quadruple change — to beat Sassuolo
For nearly an hour, Simone Inzaghi’s Inter got battered by Sassuolo. (By the way, coach Roberto De Zerbi may have gone, but Alessio Dionisi continues in the same vein, making them one of the most attractive and entertaining sides in Serie A, if not all of Europe.) They went a goal down, Samir Handanovic had to make a stellar save to deny Jeremie Boga and then Handanovic himself was very lucky not to be sent off after colliding with Gregoire Defrel outside the area.
Inzaghi made a quadruple change, sending on Edin Dzeko, Fede Dimarco, Matteo Darmian and Arturo Vidal, and the impact was immediate. Dzeko equalized with his first touch and won the penalty that Lautaro Martinez converted for the 2-1 win.
When stuff like this happens, a coach looks like a genius. But you can’t erase the first hour or so either, nor can you count on Dzeko, who is 35, to save you time and again.
Don’t look now, but Bayer Leverkusen are joint-top of the Bundesliga
But for a draw on opening day and a wild 4-3 defeat to Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen have won every game this season and the streak continued with a 4-0 trouncing of Arminia Bielefeld. It was enough to lift them to the top of the table alongside Bayern, and it shows just what an impact Gerardo Seoane has had since joining from Young Boys in the summer.
Seoane has cleaned up Peter Bosz’ mess, gotten the best out of Moussa Diaby, turned Patrik Schick into a goalscorer and helped nurture the prodigy that is Florian Wirtz. All in a few months’ work.
Can they stay at or near the top? It will be tough against better-funded and more talented opposition. But Leverkusen continue to grow and, certainly, a top four finish feels like an attainable goal.
Napoli still the only perfect team in Europe’s big five leagues
You wouldn’t have expected it after a summer that saw them make only one significant signing (midfielder Andre Zambo Anguissa on loan from Fulham), while replacing a popular manager (Rino Gattuso) with one who is more of a misunderstood genius-type (Luciano Spalletti). But after coming from behind to beat a tough Fiorentina side, 2-1, Napoli have seven wins from seven games and sit atop of Serie A.
Spalletti deserves praise for how quickly he’s connected with his players, but also for putting so much trust in them. Victor Osimhen, fit again after missing nearly half the campaign last season, obviously grabs the headlines, but players like Lorenzo Insigne (despite his contractual dispute), Fabian Ruiz and even Kalidou Koulibaly look positively regenerated by Spalletti.
Yes, coaching does matter, and the lesson here is evident. Too often, when a new manager comes in, debate focuses on whether the club will “back him” and what new players he’ll sign. First and foremost, the criteria ought to be whether he can do a better job than his predecessor with the guys who are already there.
Late goals and squad players deliver hard-fought win — and first place — for Chelsea
1:11
Steve Nicol explains Thomas Tuchel’s surprising decision that proved a masterstroke in Chelsea’s win.
I’m not sure what it says about Chelsea that they really haven’t had a convincing 90-minute performance since August, and yet they now sit atop the Premier League. On Saturday, against Southampton — a team that lost Ryan Bertrand, Danny Ings and Jannik Vestergaard over the summer — they put together a 3-1 victory, facilitated by two late goals and a lineup that suggests Thomas Tuchel is ready to use more of his squad in an effort to jolt the European champions into life.
– Olley: Werner, Chelsea’s fringe stars find redemption
Trevoh Chalobah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Ben Chilwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi all started (and Ross Barkley came on as a substitute), and maybe it’s what they needed after back-to-back defeats against City and Juventus in the Champions League. Of the above quartet, Chalobah may end up getting the most playing time, Chilwell may be the most expensive and Hudson-Odoi may have the biggest long-term upside, but it’s Loftus-Cheek who is the most intriguing.
Tall, strong and powerful, but blessed with a delicate touch, he’s the guy who never made the transition from teen prodigy to first-team regular at a Champions League-caliber club. When that happens, you often get the tag of “lazy” or “injury-prone,” but he looked fit on Saturday and, crucially, he has a very different skill set to Chelsea’s other midfielders. Whether it’s offering an alternative to Mateo Kovacic or N’Golo Kante or, possibly operating further up the pitch, Loftus-Cheek may well end up having the biggest long-term impact out of Saturday’s quartet.
Locatelli powers Juventus to fourth win in a row
Right now, Juventus are about two things: results and individual growth. The latter is important because in the absence of Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata, it’s critical that the kids they put their faith (and resources) in show they can grow in the face of adversity. Federico Chiesa and Manuel Locatelli (who scored the late winner against Torino) are doing just that. The others will need to catch up.
As for results, they’ve always been Allegri’s (and Juve’s) bread-and-butter, and the 1-0 win over Torino makes it four wins in a row. It also ended the horrific run of 20 games without keeping a clean sheet.
It was far from a sparkling performance — more the old-style defend-and-counter against Ivan Juric’s aggressive Torino — but it does alleviate the pressure and offers time and room to grow, which is just what Allegri needs in the post-Ronaldo Era.
Son shows that rumors of Spurs’ demise are vastly exaggerated
It was all set up for the wheels to come off. A week after humiliation in the North London Derby, there were protests against owner Joe Lewis and chairman Daniel Levy. Aston Villa were in town, fresh off wins over Everton and Manchester United and a solid performance away to Chelsea. Oh, and the international break was around the corner — that time when clubs like to change (or threaten to change) their managers.
Yet Spurs showed plenty of bite and plenty of fight in their 2-1 victory. Heung-Min Son was in fine form, showing he can be near unplayable when in full flight. But many of the players who, supposedly, had lost faith in Nuno Espirito Santo, from Tanguy Ndombele to Cristian Romero, turned up on the day. Nuno may or may not be the right guy to lead this team, but on Sunday’s evidence, the players are still on board.
-
Bill Connelly
To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.
Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.
I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?
The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.
2024 recap
Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.
Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.
Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.
Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.
Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.
2025 projections
We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.
Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.
LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.
Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.
Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.
Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.
Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)
2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)
Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.
Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)
Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.
The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.
It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.
For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.
The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.
But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)
2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.
The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)
2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)
Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.
Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.
The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.
The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.
Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.
The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)
2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.
In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.
The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.
Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)
2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.
Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.
This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.
The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.
On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?
Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.
Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)
Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)
Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)
The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.
This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.
It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)
2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.
It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.
There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.
Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.
Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)
2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.
Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.
Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)
Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)
Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).
The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.
Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.
Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)
2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.
I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”
I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.
The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.
Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)
In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.
Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.
On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.
On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.
On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)
2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.
Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.
And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.
Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.
A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)
2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)
Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)
Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.
On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).
The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.
A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.
James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.
The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.
With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.
Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)
2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?
I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.
Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.
Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.
Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).
Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)
2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)
On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.
On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).
After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.
I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.
Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.
Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)
2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.
You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.
If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).
Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.
Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.
Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)
2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)
As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.
So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.
The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.
Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?
-
Adam Rittenberg
Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.
The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”
The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.
Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.
The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.
Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.
-
Eli Lederman
Four-star cornerback Chauncey Kennon, No. 48 in the 2026 ESPN 300, announced his commitment to Florida State on Sunday, securing his place as the top-ranked recruit in the Seminoles’ latest recruiting class.
Kennon, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound defender from Sarasota, Florida, is ESPN’s fifth-ranked cornerback prospect in the 2026 cycle. A priority in-state target for Florida State coach Mike Norvell, Kennon chose the Seminoles over Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Oregon.
Kennon lands as the ninth ESPN 300 pledge to land with Florida State since June 1, spurring a run of recruiting momentum that has lifted the program’s 2026 class to No. 12 in ESPN’s latest class rankings. That group of recent additions includes four-star pass catchers Xavier Tiller (No. 84 overall) and Devin Carter (No. 130) and quarterback Jaden O’Neal (No. 166), the former Oklahoma commit and ESPN’s No. 8 pocket passer.
Kennon is now the top-ranked of six ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Seminoles in 2026, joining defensive tackle Earnest Rankins (No. 206 overall), cornerback Lawrence Timmons (No. 264), safeties Tedarius Hughes (No. 275) and Darryl Bell (No. 291) and defensive end James Carrington (No. 288). ESPN 300 commit Efrem White, currently classified as an athlete, could also land in the Florida State secondary when he joins the program next year.
Kennon is a two-way standout at Florida’s Booker High School, where he plays both wide receiver and cornerback. Sidelined by injury for a portion of his junior season, Kennon was credited 33 tackles, 16 pass breakups and an interception last fall, adding 10 receptions for 217 yards and six touchdowns on offense.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike