The price of natural gas is soaring – and both equity and bond markets are again fretting about surging inflation.
The cost of wholesale gas for next-day delivery in the UK today hit an all-time high of £3.55 per therm (one therm is equal to 100 cubic feet of natural gas), a rise of 27%, meaning the price has doubled in a week.
The immediate upshot is that more “challenger” household energy suppliers, who tend to buy their gas on the spot market rather than in advance, are likely to topple over.
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Energy boss: It’s ‘crunch time’ for many small providers
This is not just an issue in the UK.
Natural gas prices are rising across Europe due to a combination of liquefied natural gas cargoes being diverted to Asia to meet growing demand there, lower supplies from Russia and lower output from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
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The United States is also seeing a surge in natural gas prices.
Stock markets have suffered several bouts of unease this year amid signs that inflation is taking off.
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There was a notable sell-off early in May reflecting a rise in the price of commodities such as copper and the cost of shipping, exacerbated in March by the stranding in the Suez Canal of Ever Given, a container ship en route from China.
On that occasion, markets took at face value the insistence of central bankers such as Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank and Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England that the inflation starting to appear was simply “transitory”, a reflection of surging demand as economies re-opened after the pandemic.
Image: The standing of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal exacerbated factors behind a sell-off earlier this year
Investors around the world are now taking the threat more seriously.
For example, in Japan, the world’s fourth largest energy importer, the Nikkei 225 has fallen in each of the last eight sessions, taking it into correction territory.
Similarly, the Dax in Germany is down to a level last seen in May, while the Nasdaq – which is full of tech stocks which tend to move in close correlation to expected movements in interest rates – fell this week to a level last seen in June.
The anxiety about inflation is playing out most markedly in the sovereign debt markets.
The yield on 10-year UK government gilts (the yield on a bond rises as the price falls) has surged from 0.621% at the start of September to 1.15% – a level not seen since May 2019 – today.
In the same period, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen from 1.307% to 1.552%, while yields on Treasuries of other durations have also risen.
Several things have changed since May.
The first and most obvious is that the price of crude oil has continued to grind higher.
Image: The Nasdaq has fallen to levels last seen in June
In May, during the last inflation-inspired stock market squalls, a barrel of Brent Crude traded at between $64-$70 a barrel.
This month, so far, it has traded in a range between $77-83 a barrel.
The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, has seen an even sharper move higher and is now trading at a level last seen in November 2014.
That is starting to feed into inflation expectations – something central bankers everywhere watch warily because it usually tends to feed into higher wage demands.
For example, two weeks ago, the latest survey of inflation expectations carried out by the investment bank Citi and the pollsters YouGov found that the British public is expecting inflation to hit 4.1% over the next year.
It is a similar picture elsewhere.
The latest survey from the University of Michigan, which is closely watched by US policymakers, this week pointed to rising inflation expectations among American consumers.
And a market measurement of inflation expectations among consumers in the eurozone – a part of the world that during the last decade has had to worry more about deflation, or falling prices, than inflation – this week hit its highest level for six years.
Image: The price of crude oil has continued to grind higher
In other words, consumers and investors in the US, the UK and the eurozone appear to be losing faith in the ability of their central banks to keep a lid on the cost of living.
That belief is entirely rational if, for example, you are a British motorist who has spent hours during the last couple of weeks trying to find petrol or, for example, you are an American consumer looking at big increases in the price of your weekly grocery shop.
What is particularly interesting is that a number of so-called “trimmed mean” inflation measures, which strip out the more extreme price changes of items in the inflationary “basket”, suggest the headline rate of inflation in the US is being artificially depressed by big drops in items such as air fares and hotel rooms.
They imply that underlying inflation – that element of inflation that cannot simply be explained away by pandemic-influenced levels of supply and demand – is actually much higher.
The third factor is that some investors are now starting to think seriously about “stagflation” – the ghastly combination of stagnant growth and inflation last seen in the 1970s.
Google searches for the term “stagflation” have in the last week hit their highest level since July 2008, when the global financial crisis was getting under way.
Now, there are several good reasons to argue that we are not in for a re-run of the 1970s, not least the fact that the world is less dependent on oil than it was then and the fact that the trades unions – in Britain at least – are not as powerful as they were then.
But such searches do point to a change of sentiment among not only investors but the wider public.
Image: British motorists have spent hours stuck in petrol queues
There is every reason to think that inflation may well rise in coming weeks and months.
A clutch of UK companies, including the car and aerospace parts supplier Melrose, the bakery chain Greggs, the furniture and floorcoverings retailer ScS and the online fashion retailer Boohoo have all in the last week highlighted labour shortages, supply chain issues and rising input costs.
And that is likely to feed into higher bills for consumers.
Petrol prices are already at their highest level for eight years.
The increase in the energy price cap this week will result in higher household energy bills for 15 million UK households.
And recent rises in the price of a number of agricultural commodities in recent weeks mean that food price increases are looming.
Further eating away at the ability of consumers to spend will be next year’s increases in national insurance.
In London, meanwhile, nearly 350,000 households and businesses are about to fall foul of Mayor Sadiq Khan’s extension of his ultra low emissions zone, obliging them to either replace their vehicle at vast expense or pay a £12.50 daily fine – again carrying the same effect as inflation.
In short, there are a lot of reasons why consumers and businesses alike have good reason to believe that current levels of inflation are not just transitory, but more deep-seated.
The Bank of England – along with its counterparts around the world – has its work cut out to persuade them otherwise.
The owners of New Look, the high street fashion retailer, have picked bankers to oversee a strategic review which is expected to see the company change hands next year.
Sky News has learnt that Rothschild has been appointed in recent days to advise New Look and its shareholders on a potential exit.
The investment bank’s appointment follows a number of unsolicited approaches for the business from unidentified suitors.
New Look, which trades from almost 340 stores and employs about 10,000 people across the UK, is the country’s second-largest womenswear retailer in the 18-to-44 year-old age group.
It has been owned by its current shareholders – Alcentra and Brait – since October 2020.
In April, Sky News reported that the investors were injecting £30m of fresh equity into the business to aid its digital transformation.
Last year, the chain reported sales of £769m, with an improvement in gross margins and a statutory loss before tax of £21.7m – down from £88m the previous year.
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Like most high street retailers, it endured a torrid Covid-19 and engaged in a formal financial restructuring through a company voluntary arrangement.
In the autumn of 2023, it completed a £100m refinancing deal with Blazehill Capital and Wells Fargo.
A spokesperson for New Look declined to comment specifically on the appointment of Rothschild, but said: “Management are focused on running the business and executing the strategy for long-term growth.
“The company is performing well, with strong momentum driven by a successful summer trading period and notable online market share gains.”
Roughly 40% of New Look’s sales are now generated through digital channels, while recent data from the market intelligence firm Kantar showed it had moved into second place in the online 18-44 category, overtaking Shein and ASOS.
The Coca-Cola Company is brewing up a sale of Costa, Britain’s biggest high street coffee chain, more than six years after acquiring the business in a move aimed at helping it reduce its reliance on sugary soft drinks.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Coca-Cola is working with bankers to hold exploratory talks about a sale of Costa.
Initial talks have already been held with a small number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, City sources said on Saturday.
Lazard, the investment bank, is understood to have been engaged by Coca-Cola to review options for the business and gauge interest from prospective buyers.
Indicative offers are said to be due in the early part of the autumn, although one source cautioned that Coca-Cola could yet decide not to proceed with a sale.
Costa trades from more than 2,000 stores in the UK, and well over 3,000 globally, according to the latest available figures.
It has been reported to have a global workforce numbering 35,000, although Coca-Cola did not respond to several attempts to establish the precise number of outlets currently in operation, or its employee numbers.
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This weekend, analysts said that a sale could crystallise a multibillion pound loss on the £3.9bn sum Coca-Cola agreed to pay to buy Costa from Whitbread, the London-listed owner of the Premier Inn hotel chain, in 2018.
One suggested that Costa might now command a price tag of just £2bn in a sale process.
The disposal proceeds would, in any case, not be material to the Atlanta-based company, which had a market capitalisation at Friday’s closing share price of $304.2bn (£224.9bn).
At the time of the acquisition, Coca-Cola’s chief executive, James Quincey, said: “Costa gives Coca-Cola new capabilities and expertise in coffee, and our system can create opportunities to grow the Costa brand worldwide.
“Hot beverages is one of the few segments of the total beverage landscape where Coca-Cola does not have a global brand.
“Costa gives us access to this market with a strong coffee platform.”
However, accounts filed at Companies House for Costa show that in 2023 – the last year for which standalone results are available – the coffee chain recorded revenues of £1.22bn.
While this represented a 9% increase on the previous year, it was below the £1.3bn recorded in 2018, the final year before Coca-Cola took control of the business.
Coca-Cola has been grappling with the weak performance of Costa for some time, with Mr Quincey saying on an earnings call last month: “We’re in the mode of reflecting on what we’ve learned, thinking about how we might want to find new avenues to grow in the coffee category while continuing to run the Costa business successfully.”
“It’s still a lot of money we put down, and we wanted that money to work as hard as possible.”
Costa’s 2022 accounts referred to the financial pressures it faced from “the economic environment and inflationary pressures”, resulting in it launching “a restructuring programme to address the scale of overheads and invest for growth”.
Filings show that despite its lacklustre performance, Costa has paid more than £250m in dividends to its owner since the acquisition.
The deal was intended to provide Coca-Cola with a global platform in a growing area of the beverages market.
Costa trades in dozens of countries, including India, Japan, Mexico and Poland, and operates a network of thousands of coffee vending machines internationally under the Costa Express brand.
The chain was founded in 1971 by Italian brothers Sergio and Bruno Costa.
It was sold to Whitbread for £19m in 1995, when it traded from fewer than 40 stores.
The business is now one of Britain’s biggest private sector employers, and has become a ubiquitous presence on high streets across the country.
Its main rivals include Starbucks, Caffe Nero and Pret a Manger – the last of which is being prepared for a stake sale and possible public market flotation.
It has also faced growing competition from more upmarket chains such as Gail’s, the bakeries group, which has also been exploring a sale.
Coca-Cola communications executives in the US and UK did not respond to a series of emails and calls from Sky News seeking comment on its plans for Costa.
TikTok is putting hundreds of jobs at risk in the UK, as it turns to artificial intelligence to assess problematic content.
The video-sharing app said a global restructuring is taking place that means it is “concentrating operations in fewer locations”.
Layoffs are set to affect those working in its trust and safety departments, who focus on content moderation.
Unions have reacted angrily to the move – and claim “it will put TikTok’s millions of British users at risk”.
Figures from the tech giant, obtained by Sky News, suggest more than 85% of the videos removed for violating its community guidelines are now flagged by automated tools.
Meanwhile, it is claimed 99% of problematic content is proactively removed before being reported by users.
Executives also argue that AI systems can help reduce the amount of distressing content that moderation teams are exposed to – with the number of graphic videos viewed by staff falling 60% since this technology was implemented.
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It comes weeks after the Online Safety Act came into force, which means social networks can face huge fines if they fail to stop the spread of harmful material.
The Communication Workers Union has claimed the redundancy announcement “looks likely to be a significant reduction of the platform’s vital moderation teams”.
In a statement, it warned: “Alongside concerns ranging from workplace stress to a lack of clarity over questions such as pay scales and office attendance policy, workers have also raised concerns over the quality of AI in content moderation, believing such ‘alternatives’ to human work to be too vulnerable and ineffective to maintain TikTok user safety.”
John Chadfield, the union’s national officer for tech, said many of its members believe the AI alternatives being used are “hastily developed and immature”.
He also alleged that the layoffs come a week before staff were due to vote on union recognition.
“That TikTok management have announced these cuts just as the company’s workers are about to vote on having their union recognised stinks of union-busting and putting corporate greed over the safety of workers and the public,” he added.
Under the proposed plans, affected employees would see their roles reallocated elsewhere in Europe or handled by third-party providers, with a smaller number of trust and safety roles remaining on British soil.
The tech giant currently employs more than 2,500 people in the UK, and is due to open a new office in central London next year
A TikTok spokesperson said: “We are continuing a reorganisation that we started last year to strengthen our global operating model for Trust and Safety, which includes concentrating our operations in fewer locations globally to ensure that we maximize effectiveness and speed as we evolve this critical function for the company with the benefit of technological advancements.”