The price of natural gas is soaring – and both equity and bond markets are again fretting about surging inflation.
The cost of wholesale gas for next-day delivery in the UK today hit an all-time high of £3.55 per therm (one therm is equal to 100 cubic feet of natural gas), a rise of 27%, meaning the price has doubled in a week.
The immediate upshot is that more “challenger” household energy suppliers, who tend to buy their gas on the spot market rather than in advance, are likely to topple over.
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Energy boss: It’s ‘crunch time’ for many small providers
This is not just an issue in the UK.
Natural gas prices are rising across Europe due to a combination of liquefied natural gas cargoes being diverted to Asia to meet growing demand there, lower supplies from Russia and lower output from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
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The United States is also seeing a surge in natural gas prices.
Stock markets have suffered several bouts of unease this year amid signs that inflation is taking off.
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There was a notable sell-off early in May reflecting a rise in the price of commodities such as copper and the cost of shipping, exacerbated in March by the stranding in the Suez Canal of Ever Given, a container ship en route from China.
On that occasion, markets took at face value the insistence of central bankers such as Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank and Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England that the inflation starting to appear was simply “transitory”, a reflection of surging demand as economies re-opened after the pandemic.
Investors around the world are now taking the threat more seriously.
For example, in Japan, the world’s fourth largest energy importer, the Nikkei 225 has fallen in each of the last eight sessions, taking it into correction territory.
Similarly, the Dax in Germany is down to a level last seen in May, while the Nasdaq – which is full of tech stocks which tend to move in close correlation to expected movements in interest rates – fell this week to a level last seen in June.
The anxiety about inflation is playing out most markedly in the sovereign debt markets.
The yield on 10-year UK government gilts (the yield on a bond rises as the price falls) has surged from 0.621% at the start of September to 1.15% – a level not seen since May 2019 – today.
In the same period, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen from 1.307% to 1.552%, while yields on Treasuries of other durations have also risen.
Several things have changed since May.
The first and most obvious is that the price of crude oil has continued to grind higher.
In May, during the last inflation-inspired stock market squalls, a barrel of Brent Crude traded at between $64-$70 a barrel.
This month, so far, it has traded in a range between $77-83 a barrel.
The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, has seen an even sharper move higher and is now trading at a level last seen in November 2014.
That is starting to feed into inflation expectations – something central bankers everywhere watch warily because it usually tends to feed into higher wage demands.
For example, two weeks ago, the latest survey of inflation expectations carried out by the investment bank Citi and the pollsters YouGov found that the British public is expecting inflation to hit 4.1% over the next year.
It is a similar picture elsewhere.
The latest survey from the University of Michigan, which is closely watched by US policymakers, this week pointed to rising inflation expectations among American consumers.
And a market measurement of inflation expectations among consumers in the eurozone – a part of the world that during the last decade has had to worry more about deflation, or falling prices, than inflation – this week hit its highest level for six years.
In other words, consumers and investors in the US, the UK and the eurozone appear to be losing faith in the ability of their central banks to keep a lid on the cost of living.
That belief is entirely rational if, for example, you are a British motorist who has spent hours during the last couple of weeks trying to find petrol or, for example, you are an American consumer looking at big increases in the price of your weekly grocery shop.
What is particularly interesting is that a number of so-called “trimmed mean” inflation measures, which strip out the more extreme price changes of items in the inflationary “basket”, suggest the headline rate of inflation in the US is being artificially depressed by big drops in items such as air fares and hotel rooms.
They imply that underlying inflation – that element of inflation that cannot simply be explained away by pandemic-influenced levels of supply and demand – is actually much higher.
The third factor is that some investors are now starting to think seriously about “stagflation” – the ghastly combination of stagnant growth and inflation last seen in the 1970s.
Google searches for the term “stagflation” have in the last week hit their highest level since July 2008, when the global financial crisis was getting under way.
Now, there are several good reasons to argue that we are not in for a re-run of the 1970s, not least the fact that the world is less dependent on oil than it was then and the fact that the trades unions – in Britain at least – are not as powerful as they were then.
But such searches do point to a change of sentiment among not only investors but the wider public.
There is every reason to think that inflation may well rise in coming weeks and months.
A clutch of UK companies, including the car and aerospace parts supplier Melrose, the bakery chain Greggs, the furniture and floorcoverings retailer ScS and the online fashion retailer Boohoo have all in the last week highlighted labour shortages, supply chain issues and rising input costs.
And that is likely to feed into higher bills for consumers.
Petrol prices are already at their highest level for eight years.
The increase in the energy price cap this week will result in higher household energy bills for 15 million UK households.
And recent rises in the price of a number of agricultural commodities in recent weeks mean that food price increases are looming.
Further eating away at the ability of consumers to spend will be next year’s increases in national insurance.
In London, meanwhile, nearly 350,000 households and businesses are about to fall foul of Mayor Sadiq Khan’s extension of his ultra low emissions zone, obliging them to either replace their vehicle at vast expense or pay a £12.50 daily fine – again carrying the same effect as inflation.
In short, there are a lot of reasons why consumers and businesses alike have good reason to believe that current levels of inflation are not just transitory, but more deep-seated.
The Bank of England – along with its counterparts around the world – has its work cut out to persuade them otherwise.
Sir Keir Starmer has ordered Britain’s key watchdogs to remove barriers to growth in a bid to kickstart Britain’s sluggish economy.
Sky News has learnt that the prime minister wrote to more than ten regulators – including Ofgem, Ofwat, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Competition and Markets Authority – on Christmas Eve to demand they submit a range of pro-growth initiatives to Downing Street by the middle of January.
One recipient of the letter, which was also signed by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, and Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, said it was unambiguous in its direction to regulators to prioritise growth and investment.
Ofcom, the Environment Agency and healthcare regulators are also all understood to have been sent it.
It comes after a torrid first few months in office for the PM, who has been forced onto the back foot by a series of damaging sleaze rows and turbulent policymaking.
October’s budget, which involved pledges to raise taxes by tens of billions of pounds, triggered a bruising backlash from the private sector, with bosses in a string of sectors warning that it will fuel inflation and cause job losses and business closures.
One regulatory source said this weekend that the letter to watchdogs and a wider drive for regulatory reform emanating from Downing Street were the brainchild of Varun Chandra, the PM’s special adviser on business and investment.
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Sir Keir’s letter is understood to have referred to a need for every government department and regulator to support growth, and called on each recipient to submit five ideas for delivering that mandate by 16 January.
The letter also urged regulators to identify how the government could remove barriers to economic growth and where regulatory objectives were either conflicting or confused.
Mr Chandra is said by government insiders to have ruffled feathers in Whitehall since his appointment shortly after Labour’s massive general election victory in July.
A former managing partner at Hakluyt, the strategic advisory firm, Mr Chandra has been “relentlessly” emphasising the urgency of transforming business sentiment to drive growth, according to one Whitehall source.
The insider added that the letter to watchdogs was expected to be the first step in a broader programme of supply-side reforms to be overseen by Downing Street during the coming months.
Most of Britain’s economic regulators already have a Growth Duty enshrined in their statute, having come into effect in March 2017 under the Deregulation Act of two years earlier.
The push for watchdogs to have greater regard for economic competitiveness has already triggered a series of flashpoints, most notably in the financial services industry, where ministers have clashed with FCA officials over a number of policy areas.
Sir Keir has already signalled his aim of removing red tape, telling the government’s flagship International Investment Summit in the autumn: “The key test for me on regulation is of course growth.
“We’ve got to look at regulation across the piece, and where it is needlessly holding back the investment we need to take our country forward.
“Where it is stopping us building the homes, the data centres, the warehouses, grid connectors, roads, trainlines, then mark my words – we will get rid of it.”
On Saturday, a government spokesman declined to comment on the contents of the letter to regulators but said: “Our Plan for Change will drive economic growth right across the country, putting more money in people’s pockets.
“Regulating for growth instead of just risk is essential to that mission, ensuring that regulation does not unnecessarily hold back investment and good jobs in the UK.”
Searchlight Capital Partners, the private equity firm which has backed companies including Secret Escapes, is to lead a new funding package for Wefox, the European insurance company, that could be worth up to €170m (£141m).
Sky News has learnt that Searchlight has effectively proposed stepping in to refinance Wefox’s existing bank debt as the group seeks to avoid a fire-sale of its most prized assets.
Banking sources said a deal was close to being struck with Searchlight, which would be accompanied by an equity raise of between €80m (£66.5m) and €100m (£83.1m).
Last month, Sky News revealed that existing shareholders in Wefox, which operates across a swathe of European markets, were preparing to back a fresh cash call.
This group is understood to be led by Chrysalis, the London-listed investor in companies such as Klarna and Starling Bank, and Target Global.
One banker said that if completed, the wider refinancing deal involving Searchlight could be announced as soon as next month.
The share sale has been designed to allow Wefox to avert a sale of TAF, one of its prized subsidiaries.
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It said earlier this month that it had reached an agreement to sell its insurance carrier arm to a group of Swiss companies led by BERAG, an independent provider of pension services.
Wefox is also backed by prominent investors including the Abu Dhabi state fund Mubadala.
The company has twice this year warned that it faced running out of money within months.
It has been ravaged by losses in a number of its key markets including Italy, although its operations in the Netherlands remain profitable.
The company was valued at $4.5bn (£3.6bn) in a funding round less than two years ago and counts Barclays and JP Morgan among its lenders.
It is now valued at far less than the $1bn (£796m) needed to preserve its status as a tech unicorn.
Earlier this year, the company bought itself time by raising roughly €20m (£16.6m) from existing investors, while it has also sold Assona, a subsidiary which offers insurance cover for electric bikes.
Founded in 2015, Wefox sells insurance products through in-house and external insurance brokers, and has frequently boasted of its ambition of revolutionising the insurance industry through the use of technology.
It has more than 2 million customers across its business.
In July 2022, Wefox raised a $400m (£318m) Series D funding round valuing it at $4.5bn (£3.6bn), making it one of the largest fintechs in Europe.
That followed a $650m round in May 2021 valuing it at $3bn, reflecting the frothy appetite of investors to back scale-ups regarded as having the potential to become global competitors of genuine scale.
Neither Wefox nor Searchlight could be reached for comment.
Many months before farmers found themselves on the front pages of newspapers, after protesting in Whitehall against the new government’s inheritance tax rules, we at Sky News embarked upon a project.
Most of our reports are relatively short affairs, recorded and edited for the evening news. We capture snapshots of life in households, businesses and communities around the country. But this year we undertook to do something different: to spend a year covering the story of a family farm.
We had no inkling, at the time, that farming would become a front-page story. But even back in January, 2024 was shaping up to be a critical year for the sector. This, after all, was the year the new post-Brexit regime for farm payments would come into full force. Having depended on subsidies each year for simply farming a given acreage of land, farmers were now being asked to commit to different schemes focused less on food than on environmental goals.
This was also the first full year of the new trade deals with New Zealand and Australia. The upshot of these deals is that UK farmers are now competing with two of the world’s major food exporters, who can export more into Britain than they do currently.
You can watch the Sky News special report, The Last Straw, on Sky News at 9pm on Friday
On top of this, the winter that just passed was a particularly tough one, especially for arable farmers. Cold, wet and unpredictable – even more so than the usual British weather. It promised to be a challenging year for growing.
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With all of this in mind, we set out to document what a year like this actually felt like for a farm – in this case Lower Drayton Farm in Staffordshire. In some respects, this mixed farm is quite typical for parts of the UK – they rear livestock and grow wheat, as well as subcontracting some of their fields to potato and carrot growers.
A look at farming reimagined
But in other respects, the two generations of the Bower family here, Ray and Richard, are doing something unusual. Seeing the precipitous falls in income from growing food in recent years, they are trying to reimagine what farming in the 21st century might look like. And in their case, that means building a play centre for children and what might be classified as “agritourism” activities alongside them.
The upshot is that while much of their day-to-day work is still traditional farming, an increasing share of their income comes from non-food activity. It underlines a broader point: across the country, farmers are being asked to do unfamiliar things to make ends meet. Some, like the Bowers, are embracing that change; others are struggling to adapt. But with more wet years expected ahead and more changes due in government support, the coming years could be a continuing roller coaster for British farming.
With that in mind, I’d encourage you to watch our film of this year through the lens of this farm. It is, we hope, a fascinating, nuanced insight of life on the land.
You can watch the Sky News special report, The Last Straw, on Sky News at 9pm on Friday