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According to a new report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford, previous estimates about how quickly the price of renewables will fall have consistently underestimated reality (We think they are pointing their fingers at the International Energy Agency here.)

Here’s the first few paragraphs of the report:

“Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Most energy economy models have historically underestimated deployment rates for renewable energy technologies and overestimated their costs. The problems with these models have stimulated calls for better approaches and recent reports have made progress in this direction.

“Here we take a new approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that made reliable predictions when they were empirically tested on more than 50 technologies. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and find that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars (emphasis added) even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.

“We show that if solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers continue to follow their current exponentially increasing deployment trends for another decade, we achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within twenty-five years. In contrast, a slower transition (which involves deployment growth trends that are lower than current rates) is more expensive and a nuclear driven transition is far more expensive.

“If non-energy sources of carbon emissions such as agriculture are brought under control, our analysis indicates that a rapid green energy transition would likely generate considerable economic savings while also meeting the 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement target.

“Future energy system costs will be determined by a combination of technologies that produce, store and distribute energy. Their costs and deployment will change with time due to innovation, economic competition, public policy, concerns about climate change and other factors.”

“It’s not just good news for renewables. It’s good news for the planet,” co-author Matthew Ives, a senior researcher at the Oxford Martin Post-Carbon Transition Program, tells ArsTechnica. “The energy transition is also going to save us money. We should be doing it anyway.”

“Our approach is based on two key design principles: 1) include only the minimal set of variables necessary to represent most of the global energy system, and the most important cost and production dynamics, and 2) ensure all assumptions and dynamics are technically realistic and closely tied to empirical evidence. This means that we focus on energy technologies that have been in commercial use for sufficient time to develop a reliable historical record.

“We choose a level of model granularity well suited to the probabilistic forecasting methods used, i.e. one that allows accurate model calibration, and ensures overall cost reduction trends associated with cumulative production are captured for each technology. Our model design can be run on a laptop, is easy to understand and interpret, and allows us to calibrate all components against historical data so that the model is firmly empirically grounded. The historical data does not exist to do this on a more granular level.”

Omitted Technologies

“Consistent with our two design principles, we have deliberately omitted several minor energy technologies. Co-generation of heat, traditional biomass, marine energy, solar thermal energy, and geothermal energy were omitted either due to insufficient historical data or because they have not exhibited significant historical cost improvements, or both.

“Liquid biofuels were also excluded because any significant expansion would have high environmental costs. Finally, carbon capture and storage in conjunction with fossil fuels was omitted because i) it is currently a very small, low growth sector, ii) it has exhibited no promising cost improvements so far in its 50 year history, and iii) the cost of fossil fuels provides a hard lower bound on the cost of providing energy via fossil fuels with CCS. This means that within a few decades, electricity produced with CCS will likely not be competitive even if CCS is free.” (emphasis added)

Massive Storage Capacity

“Since renewables are intermittent, storage is essential. In the Fast Transition scenario we have allocated so much storage capacity using batteries and P2X fuels that the entire global energy system could be run for a month without any sun or wind. This is a sensible choice because both batteries and electrolyzers have highly favorable trends for cost and production.

“From 1995 to 2018 the production of lithium ion batteries increased at 30% per year, while costs dropped at 12% per year, giving an experience curve comparable to that of solar PV. Currently, about 60% of the cost of electrolytic hydrogen is electricity, and hydrogen is around 80% of the cost of ammonia, so these automatically take advantage of the high progress rates for solar PV and wind.”

Final Energy

“To understand these scenarios it is important to distinguish final energy — which is the energy delivered for use in sectors of the economy — from useful energy, which is the portion of final energy used to perform energy services, such as heat, light and kinetic energy.

“Fossil fuels tend to have large conversion losses in comparison to electricity, which means that significantly more final energy needs to be produced to obtain a given amount of useful energy. Switching to energy carriers with higher conversion efficiencies (e.g. moving to electric vehicles) significantly reduces final energy consumption.

“Our Fast Transition scenario assumes that eventually almost all energy services originate with electricity generated by solar PV and wind, making and burning P2X fuels or using batteries when it is impractical to use renewables directly. The Fast Transition substantially increases the role of electricity in the energy system.”

The INET report focuses mainly on the process of technological advancement, which is part of what has made renewables cheaper. Renewables have routinely performed beyond the expectations of previous papers. “They’ve been getting these forecasts wrong for quite some time,” Ives said. “You can see we’ve consistently broken through those forecasts again and again.”

Rather than a plateau on renewable energy costs, Ives said the greater likelihood is that the prices will decrease slower once things like solar and wind end up dominating the market. At that point, technological advances may very well still happen, but they might not be rolled out as frequently as they are now. “It’s the deployment that slows it down,” Ives says.

Michael Taylor, senior analyst at IRENA, agrees. He tells ArsTechnica his organization found that the cost reduction drivers — improved technology, supply chains, scalability, and manufacturing processes — for solar and wind are likely to continue at least for the next 10 to 15 years. With regard to previous forecasts, he says, “I would expect they’re overly pessimistic.”

Unforeseen issues such as the global pandemic and supply chain woes could slow the decline in the cost of renewables, as well as other barriers such as oil and gas subsidies, public opinion, permitting, and political considerations. “Just on purely economic grounds, there are increasing benefits to consumers to be had by accelerating the roll out of renewable power generation,” Taylor says. “We encourage policymakers to look very seriously at trying to remove the barriers that currently exist.”

The Takeaway

The report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is a breath of fresh air. In particular, it explodes all the tripe being trotted out by fossil fuel companies to justify the continued use of their products. Carbon Capture? Pure baloney, a chimera they can hide behind while the continue their relentless greenwashing campaigns.

INET envisions consumers saving trillions of dollars as renewable energy takes over from thermal generation. The bottom line is we must stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible if we want to keep the Earth habitable for humans. This report comes just in time for the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow. In a rational world, global leaders would seize upon it as justification for moving forward aggressively with favorable renewable energy policies.

That’s unlikely. Those political leaders are beholden to fossil fuel companies, so expect a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth as they try to spin their way out of the obvious. The only thing we as renewable energy advocates can hope for is that the price of renewables will get so low that anyone with the acumen of kumquat will have to recognize the truth. Ultimately, those free market imperatives reactionaries are so fond of will drive a stake through the heart of their beloved fossil fuel industry. We can’t wait!

 

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Hyundai is about to shake things up its new ‘Pleos’ brand: Here’s what we know so far

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Hyundai is about to shake things up its new 'Pleos' brand: Here's what we know so far

In less than two weeks, Hyundai will unveil its “groundbreaking” new Pleos brand. The brand will introduce advanced new software and tech that will be used in upcoming Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis vehicles. We will also get our first look at its new development platform. Here’s what we know about Hyundai Pleos so far.

What is Hyundai’s new Pleos brand?

“What if mobility had its own software?” Hyundai asked on Tuesday after teasing its new software-defined brand. The company promises Pleos will “redefine mobility,” but how exactly?

A few weeks ago, Hyundai announced it was holding a developer conference to capitalize on the auto industry’s shift toward software-defined vehicles (SDVs).

At the event on March 28, Hyundai will debut its new Pleos brand while showcasing its latest tech, including a new development platform, artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous driving advancements. The new SDV tech will power upcoming Hyundai Motor, Kia, and Genesis models, including EVs.

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Hyundai describes Pleos as a symbol of its commitment to providing smart, sustainable mobility solutions. Designed to connect and integrate data, the brand will open the door for innovation and collaboration.

Hyundai-Pleos-brand
Hyundai IONIQ 9 Calligraphy trim interior (Source: Hyundai)

During the conference, we will also see Hyundai’s new software development kits (SDKs) and APIs for its next-gen infotainment systems for the first time. The event will feature an exhibition showcasing potential partnership opportunities.

Hyundai teases new Pleos software brand (Source: Hyundai Motor Group)

With Kia launching its first electric van, the PV5, Hyundai Motor is quickly advancing new tech and software “set to redefine mobility.” The PV5 will kick off Kia’s Platform Beyond Vehicle (PBV) business, a total mobility solution combining fit-for-purpose EVs with advanced software.

Hyundai claims that “the future of seamless movement is no longer just an idea—it’s becoming reality” as it gears up to unveil its new mobility software brand, Pleos, on March 28.

With a flood of new EVs and tech on the way, Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis are preparing to shake things up in a big way over the next few years. Stay tuned for more on Hyundai’s software brand.

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Xiaomi hits 200,000 EV deliveries in a scorching 119 days and raises 2025 target

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Xiaomi hits 200,000 EV deliveries in a scorching 119 days and raises 2025 target

Young EV automaker Xiaomi Automotive continues to showcase that it is a force to be reckoned with in China. The automotive division of the massive electronics manufacturer Xiaomi Corporation recently hit 200,000 EV deliveries in record time. As such, the automaker has increased its delivery targets for 2025 as its second all-electric model looks to hit the market this summer.

Xiaomi Automobile is a name that refuses to be ignored in China and the global EV scene. The EV-centric business was spun out from smartphone and electronics manufacturer Xiaomi Corporation in 2021 and has been evolving at a staggering pace ever since.

The automaker launched its first model, the SU7, in March 2024 after faster-than-expected development. It quickly secured over 50,000 orders in the first 27 minutes and currently has a delivery wait time of at least 30 weeks.

In 2024, Xiaomi initially targeted the assembly of 60,000, but the SU7’s tremendous demand led the young automaker to bolster production to keep up. Shortly after the SU7 launch, Xiaomi shared that it had built 10,000 EVs in 32 days before bolstering its production lines in China, hoping to double its initial production and targets.

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By mid-November, Xiaomi’s founder shared that the company had reached 100,000 EV builds earlier than expected and could reach 120,000 units before 2025 arrived. When 2024 ended, Xiaomi was reporting 135,000 SU7 deliveries with plans to double that figure in 2025.

Today, Xiaomi reported 200,000 EV deliveries and has once again pushed back its annual goalposts as its sales continue to snowball in China.

Xiaomi deliveries
Source: Xiaomi Automobile / Weibo

Xiaomi raises 2025 target to 350,000 deliveries

Xiaomi touted its latest milestone on Weibo today, noting 200,000 EV deliveries while showcasing the lucky couple who took delivery of their new SU7, seen in the featured image above. What’s most noteworthy about this news is that Xiaomi hit the 200,000 mark in a mere 119 days.

We thought it was fast when the Chinese EV automaker hit 100,000 deliveries in 230 days. Still, momentum continues to increase at Xiaomi HQ, even though the young automaker is only selling one EV model in three variants in addition to a 1,548 horsepower SU7 Ultra (seen above).

As an encore, Xiaomi has already introduced an all-electric SUV called the YU7, which debuted late last year and will compete against the Tesla Model Y in China when it hits the market his summer. With a fresh model on the way and continued demand for its growing lineup, Xiaomi has raised its targeted deliveries for 2025.

With its production facilities now complete in China, Xiaomi previously shared plans to achieve a full annual production capacity of 300,000 units this year. However, Xiaomi now says it is targeting 350,000 deliveries for 2025. Per its Weibo page, its production capacity increase is “progressing smoothly.”

From what we’ve seen from Xiaomi Auto thus far, everything has been smooth sailing. The company’s next milestone should be the official launch of the YU7 SUV, but who knows, it may hit 300,000 deliveries before then.

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NIO and CATL form new partnership to build the world’s largest battery swap network

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NIO and CATL form new partnership to build the world's largest battery swap network

This week, prominent Chinese EV automaker NIO and CATL, the world’s leading battery manufacturer, announced a new strategic partnership to combine and standardize their respective industries technologies and implement the “largest and most advanced battery swap network for passenger vehicles.”

When it comes to advanced battery technologies in China, both NIO and CATL are mainstays in the industry discourse. NIO has established itself as one of the leading innovators in EVs and adjacent technologies and has expanded beyond its native China into new global markets.

Simultaneously, CATL has remained the bonafide leader in battery manufacturing and market share for the better part of the last decade and has shown no signs of ceding to its competitors anytime soon. Beyond EV batteries, CATL has introduced its own network of battery swap stations in China, part of a strategy to eventually replace gas stations altogether.

Similarly, battery swaps remain a massive part of NIO’s EV strategy. Its growing networks in China and Europe, not to mention its customer support, have proven to the world that swaps can serve as a viable alternative to traditional charging methods in which the battery pack stays put.

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That said, NIO and CATL are no strangers to one another. Prior to today’s news, both companies had established several partnerships to expand battery technology and deliver it to more markets. Today, NIO and CATL have confirmed a new strategic partnership focused on battery swap technology to establish the world’s most prominent network. Given each’s current status in that segment, that goal shouldn’t be too hard to achieve.

NIO battery swap network
Source: CATL

CATL signs on to support NIO’s battery swap network

Both companies shared details of their new strategic partnership, which was signed on March 17 in Ningde, Fujian, China. NIO and CATL plan to collaborate and leverage their technological strengths to establish a world-leading battery swap network. Per the release:

 Building on unified battery standards, the two parties will strengthen the sharing of their battery swapping networks, and accelerate the adoption and advancement of battery swapping services. CATL will support NIO in developing the battery swapping network, while its Choco-Swap technical standards and network will be introduced to the subsequent newly developed models of firefly, NIO’s new brand.

CATL and NIO stated they will operate in parallel to offer NIO and other EV drivers a more seamless and efficient battery swap network experience. As for many EV automakers, the overall goal is to make BEV travel more convenient to help sway more consumers into going all-electric.

Yesterday, NIO and CATL competitor BYD introduced a new 1,000-volt EV platform that can recharge a vehicle in five minutes thanks to 1,000 kW rates, thus reaching time parity with a traditional gas station visit. Before that news, battery swaps have remained the much faster recharge method, taking between five and eight minutes to pull in, have a battery swapped out, and pull through back onto one’s travels.

NIO and CATL hope to promote this alternative method further in China by jointly developing and adopting national battery swap network standards, which include universal battery compatibility across various makes and models, not just NIO vehicles.

NIO and CATL plan to “complete a lifestyle loop” that includes battery R&D, swapping services, asset management, reutilization, and material recycling. In addition to spreading further adoption, the overall goal will be to reduce costs for swap station operators and EV owners alike while improving overall efficiency across the industry.

This is excellent news for the EV industry in China and let’s hope it finds success overseas so it can expand to other global markets soon.

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