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According to a new report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford, previous estimates about how quickly the price of renewables will fall have consistently underestimated reality (We think they are pointing their fingers at the International Energy Agency here.)

Here’s the first few paragraphs of the report:

“Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Most energy economy models have historically underestimated deployment rates for renewable energy technologies and overestimated their costs. The problems with these models have stimulated calls for better approaches and recent reports have made progress in this direction.

“Here we take a new approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that made reliable predictions when they were empirically tested on more than 50 technologies. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and find that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars (emphasis added) — even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.

“We show that if solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers continue to follow their current exponentially increasing deployment trends for another decade, we achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within twenty-five years. In contrast, a slower transition (which involves deployment growth trends that are lower than current rates) is more expensive and a nuclear driven transition is far more expensive.

“If non-energy sources of carbon emissions such as agriculture are brought under control, our analysis indicates that a rapid green energy transition would likely generate considerable economic savings while also meeting the 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement target.

“Future energy system costs will be determined by a combination of technologies that produce, store and distribute energy. Their costs and deployment will change with time due to innovation, economic competition, public policy, concerns about climate change and other factors.”

“It’s not just good news for renewables. It’s good news for the planet,” co-author Matthew Ives, a senior researcher at the Oxford Martin Post-Carbon Transition Program, tells ArsTechnica. “The energy transition is also going to save us money. We should be doing it anyway.”

“Our approach is based on two key design principles: 1) include only the minimal set of variables necessary to represent most of the global energy system, and the most important cost and production dynamics, and 2) ensure all assumptions and dynamics are technically realistic and closely tied to empirical evidence. This means that we focus on energy technologies that have been in commercial use for sufficient time to develop a reliable historical record.

“We choose a level of model granularity well suited to the probabilistic forecasting methods used, i.e. one that allows accurate model calibration, and ensures overall cost reduction trends associated with cumulative production are captured for each technology. Our model design can be run on a laptop, is easy to understand and interpret, and allows us to calibrate all components against historical data so that the model is firmly empirically grounded. The historical data does not exist to do this on a more granular level.”

Omitted Technologies

“Consistent with our two design principles, we have deliberately omitted several minor energy technologies. Co-generation of heat, traditional biomass, marine energy, solar thermal energy, and geothermal energy were omitted either due to insufficient historical data or because they have not exhibited significant historical cost improvements, or both.

“Liquid biofuels were also excluded because any significant expansion would have high environmental costs. Finally, carbon capture and storage in conjunction with fossil fuels was omitted because i) it is currently a very small, low growth sector, ii) it has exhibited no promising cost improvements so far in its 50 year history, and iii) the cost of fossil fuels provides a hard lower bound on the cost of providing energy via fossil fuels with CCS. This means that within a few decades, electricity produced with CCS will likely not be competitive even if CCS is free.” (emphasis added)

Massive Storage Capacity

“Since renewables are intermittent, storage is essential. In the Fast Transition scenario we have allocated so much storage capacity using batteries and P2X fuels that the entire global energy system could be run for a month without any sun or wind. This is a sensible choice because both batteries and electrolyzers have highly favorable trends for cost and production.

“From 1995 to 2018 the production of lithium ion batteries increased at 30% per year, while costs dropped at 12% per year, giving an experience curve comparable to that of solar PV. Currently, about 60% of the cost of electrolytic hydrogen is electricity, and hydrogen is around 80% of the cost of ammonia, so these automatically take advantage of the high progress rates for solar PV and wind.”

Final Energy

“To understand these scenarios it is important to distinguish final energy — which is the energy delivered for use in sectors of the economy — from useful energy, which is the portion of final energy used to perform energy services, such as heat, light and kinetic energy.

“Fossil fuels tend to have large conversion losses in comparison to electricity, which means that significantly more final energy needs to be produced to obtain a given amount of useful energy. Switching to energy carriers with higher conversion efficiencies (e.g. moving to electric vehicles) significantly reduces final energy consumption.

“Our Fast Transition scenario assumes that eventually almost all energy services originate with electricity generated by solar PV and wind, making and burning P2X fuels or using batteries when it is impractical to use renewables directly. The Fast Transition substantially increases the role of electricity in the energy system.”

The INET report focuses mainly on the process of technological advancement, which is part of what has made renewables cheaper. Renewables have routinely performed beyond the expectations of previous papers. “They’ve been getting these forecasts wrong for quite some time,” Ives said. “You can see we’ve consistently broken through those forecasts again and again.”

Rather than a plateau on renewable energy costs, Ives said the greater likelihood is that the prices will decrease slower once things like solar and wind end up dominating the market. At that point, technological advances may very well still happen, but they might not be rolled out as frequently as they are now. “It’s the deployment that slows it down,” Ives says.

Michael Taylor, senior analyst at IRENA, agrees. He tells ArsTechnica his organization found that the cost reduction drivers — improved technology, supply chains, scalability, and manufacturing processes — for solar and wind are likely to continue at least for the next 10 to 15 years. With regard to previous forecasts, he says, “I would expect they’re overly pessimistic.”

Unforeseen issues such as the global pandemic and supply chain woes could slow the decline in the cost of renewables, as well as other barriers such as oil and gas subsidies, public opinion, permitting, and political considerations. “Just on purely economic grounds, there are increasing benefits to consumers to be had by accelerating the roll out of renewable power generation,” Taylor says. “We encourage policymakers to look very seriously at trying to remove the barriers that currently exist.”

The Takeaway

The report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is a breath of fresh air. In particular, it explodes all the tripe being trotted out by fossil fuel companies to justify the continued use of their products. Carbon Capture? Pure baloney, a chimera they can hide behind while the continue their relentless greenwashing campaigns.

INET envisions consumers saving trillions of dollars as renewable energy takes over from thermal generation. The bottom line is we must stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible if we want to keep the Earth habitable for humans. This report comes just in time for the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow. In a rational world, global leaders would seize upon it as justification for moving forward aggressively with favorable renewable energy policies.

That’s unlikely. Those political leaders are beholden to fossil fuel companies, so expect a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth as they try to spin their way out of the obvious. The only thing we as renewable energy advocates can hope for is that the price of renewables will get so low that anyone with the acumen of kumquat will have to recognize the truth. Ultimately, those free market imperatives reactionaries are so fond of will drive a stake through the heart of their beloved fossil fuel industry. We can’t wait!

 

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Jackery flash sale takes $2,500 off select units with extra savings + gift, Heybike Mars 2.0 hits $899 low, Autel EV charger, EGO, more

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March 18, 2025

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Jackery flash sale takes ,500 off select units with extra savings + gift, Heybike Mars 2.0 hits 9 low, Autel EV charger, EGO, more

Today’s Green Deals are headlined by Jackery’s Sustainable Power Flash Sale that is only running for a few days with up to $2,500 being taken off its power stations – there’s even some hangover St. Paddy’s Day extra savings and a free gift offer on select purchases. In a rare occurence directly from Jackery, we spotted the brand’s popular Explorer 100 Plus Portable Power Station dropping to $90, among other notable offers. Heybike has also switched to its Limited Spring Sale, with some short-term discounted bundle sale offers being led by the Mars 2.0 Fat Tire e-bike that is back down at its $899 low for the next few days. We also have Autel’s MaxiCharger AC Lite Home Level 2 EV Charger down at a limited-supply $455 Amazon low, as well as EGO’s Nexus Escape 400W Inverter Kit that helps you get more usage out of your batteries, returning to its $249 low. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals are in the links at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s Anker SOLIX Spring Sale offers, Tenways’ $895 in e-bike savings, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Jackery’s Explorer 100 Plus 99Wh power station hits $90 in flash sale + bonus savings and free gear on other units

Jackery is having a Sustainable Power Flash Sale through March 19 with up to $2,500 in discounts on a selection of power stations and solar generators for your spring adventures, with some bonus St. Paddy’s Day savings on the brand’s Explorer 5000 series of offers. Among what we’re seeing, we spied the popular Explorer 100 Plus Portable Power Station down at $89.99 shipped. Usually going for $149 most of the time, since Black Friday we’ve been seeing more frequent falls to its $89 low, normally as individual Amazon deals over any inclusion in these direct sales. Today’s deal is a 39% markdown that saves you $59 off the going rate, giving you the chance to grab it here at the second-lowest price we have tracked – only $1 above the lowest rate. For once, it’s even beating out Amazon, where it’s only discounted to $109 right now.

***Note: While there are no extra sitewide savings during Jackery’s Sustainable Power Flash Sale, we are seeing Jackery offer up St. Paddy’s Day extra savings through March 19 when you purchase any of its modular Explorer 5000 series units. You’ll score 15% off either the Explorer 5000 power station or its bundle options by using the code GREEN15 at checkout, as well as getting a FREE Explorer 100 Plus that will be automatically added to your cart.

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Jackery’s palm-sized, two-pound Explorer 100 Plus power station is the brand’s compact, airline-approved backup solution that beats out most popular sizes of power banks on top of offering solar charging capabilities. It provides you with a 99Wh (31,000mAh) LiFePO4 capacity with up to 128W of output through its dual USB-C and single USB-A ports. By plugging it into a wall outlet, you’ll regain 70% of the battery in about an hour, with a full battery taking a bit longer at up to two hours. As I mentioned, there are solar charging capabilities here, with a maximum 100W solar input giving you a full charge in around two hours – plus, you could also connect it to your car’s auxiliary port to regain a full charge in three hours time.

Jackery’s Sustainable Power Sale home and outdoor deals:

Jackery’s Sustainable Power Sale accessory deals:

You can check out the full lineup of deals for Jackery’s Sustainable Power Flash Sale on the landing page here.

Heybike Mars 2.0 Fat Tire e-bike

Heybike’s Mars 2.0 folding fat tire e-bike with free gear returns to $899 low in limited spring savings

Following in the footsteps of its previous flash sales, Heybike is offering a Limited Spring Sale on a selection of e-bikes, with the next few days giving folks another chance to score the Mars 2.0 Folding Fat Tire e-bike at $899 shipped through March 21. Coming down off its $1,499 price tag, we see this model prominently featured in most of the brand’s sales, often dropping to either $1,099 or lower to $999, though occasionally we do see it go lower to $899, like today. You’ll be benefitting from a $600 markdown, returning it to the all-time lowest price we have tracked just in time to secure it for your upcoming spring adventures. You’ll even get a free large cargo basket with your purchase. Head below for more details and to check out the other models benefitting from the savings.

While it doesn’t sport any fancy bells and whistles like higher-end models on the market, Heybike’s Mars 2.0 gives you some solid performance and features for such a budget-friendly price – especially this low. It arrives ready to support you through your commute with a removable 600Wh battery for up to 45 miles on a single charge with its five PAS levels, providing you with top speeds of 28 MPH. That’s with the standard’s 750W motor, which you can upgrade to a 1,000W model for $200 more, bumping your maximum speed up to 32 MPH while also providing more power for inclines, increased load capacity, and more.

Its folding frame will certainly be a blessing to folks with limited storage space, and you won’t have to worry about being caught with a flat on the two 4-inch puncture-resistant fat tires (each with fenders). There’s also the Shimano 7-speed derailleur, integrated cargo rack, an LED headlight and taillight, and LED display – plus, if you upgrade to the 1,000W motor, you’ll also have the brakes upgraded to hydraulic disc brakes to ensure stopping power at those higher speeds.

Heybike’s Limited Spring Sale offers:

  • Ranger S Folding Fat Tire e-bike: $1,099 (Reg. $1,499)
    • 28 MPH for up to 55 miles
    • Can upgrade to 1,000W motor for $200 more
    • Comes with free front basket and large basket
  • Cityrun Urban Commuter e-bike: $1,099 (Reg. $1,599)
    • 21 MPH for up to 55 miles
    • Comes with free front basket and large basket
  • Horizon Full-Suspension e-bike: $1,399 (Reg. $1,999)
    • 28 MPH for 55 miles
    • Comes with free front basket and large basket
  • Brawn Off-Road e-bike: $1,499 (Reg. $1,799)
    • 28 MPH for 65 miles
    • Comes with free large basket
  • ALPHA Mid-Drive All-Terrain e-bike (new model): $1,599 (Reg. $1,699)
    • 28 MPH for up to 60 miles
Autel MaxiCharger AC Lite EV charger

Autel’s MaxiCharger AC Lite level 2 EV charger gets limited-supply discount to $455 Amazon low

Amazon is offering a Lightning Deal on the Autel MaxiCharger AC Lite Home Level 2 EV Charger for $455.20 shipped while supplies last. Coming down off its usual $569 MSRP, we’ve been seeing frequent Lightning savings like today over the last year, along with some longer-lasting discounts too, often dropping costs to the same rate. Taking advantage of the limited savings here nets you $114 to go back in your pocket while you score it at the lowest price we have tracked on Amazon. At the time of writing this, 6% of the available units have been claimed. Head below for more.

Autel’s 240V MaxiCharger AC Lite arrives as an affordable alternative for non-Tesla drivers, compatible with any EV that takes a J1772 connector. It provides you up to 50A charging speeds once installed, averaging at around 37 miles for every hour your EV is hooked up (and assuming you’re setting it to the maximum output), with smart controls for monitoring and setting adjustments available through your smartphone. Built to stand against year-round elements, it sports a 25-foot cable that will continue to function in as low as -40 degrees, with Autel rating it to withstand “snow, rain, hail, and sleet.”

EGO Power+ Nexus Escape 400W Inverter Kit

Get more use out of your EGO batteries with the Nexus Escape 400W 3-Port Inverter Kit at a $249 low

Amazon is offering the third-ever savings hitting the EGO Power+ Nexus Escape 400W Inverter Kit with a 4.0Ah battery and a charger for $249 shipped, after clipping the on-page $50 off coupon. Normally this model carries a $300 price tag, which we saw the previous discount bring down only by $1 back in January. At the end of February we saw this same additional $50 off discount pop up, disappearing for a short time before being brought back today. You’re looking at a $51 markdown here, which returns costs to the all-time lowest we’ve seen.

Perfect for anyone who has collected a solid arsenal of EGO tools, this Nexus Escape inverter provides you with the means to get more out of your acquired batteries – beyond simply powering the brand’s equipment. Not only can you use the included 100W charger to refill your 56V EGO brand ARC batteries by connecting it to the inverter, but you’ll also be able to power up to three devices simultaneously through the two USB-C ports and one USB-A port. It delivers up to 400W of continuous power normally, peaking at 800W for anything needing the boost. You’ll even be getting a 4.0AH battery along with this kit, in case you’re just starting your investments into one of the top electric tool brands on the market.

We’ve got quite of few deals on EGO’s lineup of tools at the moment, like the 56V 21-inch Cordless Self-Propelled model that comes with two 6.0Ah batteries for a 100-minute runtime still sitting at its new $700 low, or there are also the brand’s T6 riding tractor or Z6 zero-turn riding mowers that are down at their lowest rates – up to $1,500 off and starting from $3,499.

Best New Year EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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Several Tesla vehicles burned down in Las Vegas and Kansas City, arson suspected

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1 hour ago

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March 18, 2025

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Several Tesla vehicles burned down in Las Vegas and Kansas City, arson suspected

Tesla Las Vegas fire

Several Tesla vehicles were set on fire at Tesla service center in Las Vegas. More Tesla vehicles were also set on fire in Kansas, arson is also suspected in this case, but it’s not confirmed.

Tesla is facing protests at stores across the US over masses trying to negatively affect Elon Musk who many believes is establishing himself as a oligarch in the US.

On top of the peaceful legal protests, more extremist groups are also attacking Tesla with vandalism.

Cars have been burned down, keyed, and Tesla stores had windows broken, have been graffitied, and even shot at.

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Protests are not slowing down with over 100 planned for the next 2 weeks and unfortunately, the vandalism attacks on Tesla also don’t appear to be slowing down.

Just last night, there were two instances.

The first one was at Tesla’s service center in Las Vegas were several vehicles were reportedly set on fire (pictured above).

The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police said that they were told that an individual set the vehicles on fire, but they are still investigating:

“LVMPD Communications received information that an individual had set several vehicles on fire in the parking lot and caused damage to the property,”

The FBI is reportedly being involved.

President Trump said last week that he wants to classify vandalism against Tesla as “domestic terrorism.” We previously reported that the FBI has already gotten involved in several instances of vandalism at Tesla stores.

In a separate instance in Kansas City last night, two Tesla Cybertrucks burned down at the local Tesla store.

A KCPD officer spotted the fire and tried to extinguish it himself but couldn’t. Firefighters had to come and the fire spread to a second Cybertruck in the meantime.

The KCPD Bomb and Arson unit is investigating the cause – therefore, arson is also suspected but not confirmed yet.

Tesla vehicles have at times caught on fire on their own – although it’s a rare occurrence.

Electrek’s Take

As we have often mentioned in the last few weeks, we sympathize with the people peacefully protesting and boycotting Tesla, but we condemn any violence, including vandalism.

The protests and boycotts are much more efficient in affecting Tesla than any form of violence, including setting cars on fire. Tesla will just collect the insurance anyway.

Everyone getting involved in this is actually eroding the credibility of the “Tesla Takedown” movement.

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Rivian CEO shows off R2 body progress ahead of production

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2 hours ago

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March 18, 2025

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Rivian CEO shows off R2 body progress ahead of production

Rivian-R2-body-EV

Rivian is plowing ahead with its new midsize R2 electric SUV. As it gears up for production, Rivian’s CEO, RJ Scaringe, gave us a sneak peek at the R2 body being built with production dies.

First look at the Rivian R2 body with production dies

Starting at $45,000, the R2 will be about half the cost of Rivian’s current R1S ($77,700) and R1T ($71,700). Despite a smaller size, the company promises it will still have that “Rivian essence” that has helped get the EV maker to where it is today.

Rivian’s CFO, Claire McDonough, said the team was “working around the clock” earlier this month to prepare its Normal, IL facility for R2 production.

McDonough confirmed that the sourcing for R2 was about 95% complete, and the start of production was still scheduled for the first half of 2026.

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In the meantime, Scaringe is giving us a closer look at the R2 as it goes through development. Earlier this month, he posted a picture of the R2’s highly efficient Maximum drive unit.

Rivian-R2-drive-unit
Rivian-R2-drive-unit

The new unit uses continuous winding in the stator to reduce the total welds per stator assembly from 264 to just 24. With an integrated rotor shaft and gear, Maximum uses just two bearings, down from four on its Enduro drive unit.

As Rivian moves closer to production, we’re getting an up-close look at the R2 body being built. Rivian’s CEO shared a picture on X showing the R2 body, now built with production dies.

Although Rivian will begin building R2 models in Normal, it will significantly ramp up production at its new plant in Georgia. McDonough said the GA facility is still on track to come online in 2028.

Rivian-R2-body-EV
Rivian R2 midsize electric SUV (Source: Rivian)

Once fully up and running, it’s expected to have up to 400,000 annual vehicle production capacity. To put that into perspective, Rivian built just shy of 50,000 EVs last year.

After scaling production, Rivian will launch the R2 in Europe as it takes the brand overseas. The company promises that R2 is just the start. Next up, Rivian will launch the smaller R3 crossover and R3X, a tri-motor electric hot hatch.

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