The Cost Of Renewables Continues To Plummet
According to a new report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford, previous estimates about how quickly the price of renewables will fall have consistently underestimated reality (We think they are pointing their fingers at the International Energy Agency here.)
Here’s the first few paragraphs of the report:
“Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Most energy economy models have historically underestimated deployment rates for renewable energy technologies and overestimated their costs. The problems with these models have stimulated calls for better approaches and recent reports have made progress in this direction.
“Here we take a new approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that made reliable predictions when they were empirically tested on more than 50 technologies. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and find that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars (emphasis added) — even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.
“We show that if solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers continue to follow their current exponentially increasing deployment trends for another decade, we achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within twenty-five years. In contrast, a slower transition (which involves deployment growth trends that are lower than current rates) is more expensive and a nuclear driven transition is far more expensive.
“If non-energy sources of carbon emissions such as agriculture are brought under control, our analysis indicates that a rapid green energy transition would likely generate considerable economic savings while also meeting the 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement target.
“Future energy system costs will be determined by a combination of technologies that produce, store and distribute energy. Their costs and deployment will change with time due to innovation, economic competition, public policy, concerns about climate change and other factors.”
“It’s not just good news for renewables. It’s good news for the planet,” co-author Matthew Ives, a senior researcher at the Oxford Martin Post-Carbon Transition Program, tells ArsTechnica. “The energy transition is also going to save us money. We should be doing it anyway.”
“Our approach is based on two key design principles: 1) include only the minimal set of variables necessary to represent most of the global energy system, and the most important cost and production dynamics, and 2) ensure all assumptions and dynamics are technically realistic and closely tied to empirical evidence. This means that we focus on energy technologies that have been in commercial use for sufficient time to develop a reliable historical record.
“We choose a level of model granularity well suited to the probabilistic forecasting methods used, i.e. one that allows accurate model calibration, and ensures overall cost reduction trends associated with cumulative production are captured for each technology. Our model design can be run on a laptop, is easy to understand and interpret, and allows us to calibrate all components against historical data so that the model is firmly empirically grounded. The historical data does not exist to do this on a more granular level.”
Omitted Technologies
“Consistent with our two design principles, we have deliberately omitted several minor energy technologies. Co-generation of heat, traditional biomass, marine energy, solar thermal energy, and geothermal energy were omitted either due to insufficient historical data or because they have not exhibited significant historical cost improvements, or both.
“Liquid biofuels were also excluded because any significant expansion would have high environmental costs. Finally, carbon capture and storage in conjunction with fossil fuels was omitted because i) it is currently a very small, low growth sector, ii) it has exhibited no promising cost improvements so far in its 50 year history, and iii) the cost of fossil fuels provides a hard lower bound on the cost of providing energy via fossil fuels with CCS. This means that within a few decades, electricity produced with CCS will likely not be competitive even if CCS is free.” (emphasis added)
Massive Storage Capacity
“Since renewables are intermittent, storage is essential. In the Fast Transition scenario we have allocated so much storage capacity using batteries and P2X fuels that the entire global energy system could be run for a month without any sun or wind. This is a sensible choice because both batteries and electrolyzers have highly favorable trends for cost and production.
“From 1995 to 2018 the production of lithium ion batteries increased at 30% per year, while costs dropped at 12% per year, giving an experience curve comparable to that of solar PV. Currently, about 60% of the cost of electrolytic hydrogen is electricity, and hydrogen is around 80% of the cost of ammonia, so these automatically take advantage of the high progress rates for solar PV and wind.”
Final Energy
“To understand these scenarios it is important to distinguish final energy — which is the energy delivered for use in sectors of the economy — from useful energy, which is the portion of final energy used to perform energy services, such as heat, light and kinetic energy.
“Fossil fuels tend to have large conversion losses in comparison to electricity, which means that significantly more final energy needs to be produced to obtain a given amount of useful energy. Switching to energy carriers with higher conversion efficiencies (e.g. moving to electric vehicles) significantly reduces final energy consumption.
“Our Fast Transition scenario assumes that eventually almost all energy services originate with electricity generated by solar PV and wind, making and burning P2X fuels or using batteries when it is impractical to use renewables directly. The Fast Transition substantially increases the role of electricity in the energy system.”
The INET report focuses mainly on the process of technological advancement, which is part of what has made renewables cheaper. Renewables have routinely performed beyond the expectations of previous papers. “They’ve been getting these forecasts wrong for quite some time,” Ives said. “You can see we’ve consistently broken through those forecasts again and again.”
Rather than a plateau on renewable energy costs, Ives said the greater likelihood is that the prices will decrease slower once things like solar and wind end up dominating the market. At that point, technological advances may very well still happen, but they might not be rolled out as frequently as they are now. “It’s the deployment that slows it down,” Ives says.
Michael Taylor, senior analyst at IRENA, agrees. He tells ArsTechnica his organization found that the cost reduction drivers — improved technology, supply chains, scalability, and manufacturing processes — for solar and wind are likely to continue at least for the next 10 to 15 years. With regard to previous forecasts, he says, “I would expect they’re overly pessimistic.”
Unforeseen issues such as the global pandemic and supply chain woes could slow the decline in the cost of renewables, as well as other barriers such as oil and gas subsidies, public opinion, permitting, and political considerations. “Just on purely economic grounds, there are increasing benefits to consumers to be had by accelerating the roll out of renewable power generation,” Taylor says. “We encourage policymakers to look very seriously at trying to remove the barriers that currently exist.”
The Takeaway
The report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is a breath of fresh air. In particular, it explodes all the tripe being trotted out by fossil fuel companies to justify the continued use of their products. Carbon Capture? Pure baloney, a chimera they can hide behind while the continue their relentless greenwashing campaigns.
INET envisions consumers saving trillions of dollars as renewable energy takes over from thermal generation. The bottom line is we must stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible if we want to keep the Earth habitable for humans. This report comes just in time for the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow. In a rational world, global leaders would seize upon it as justification for moving forward aggressively with favorable renewable energy policies.
That’s unlikely. Those political leaders are beholden to fossil fuel companies, so expect a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth as they try to spin their way out of the obvious. The only thing we as renewable energy advocates can hope for is that the price of renewables will get so low that anyone with the acumen of kumquat will have to recognize the truth. Ultimately, those free market imperatives reactionaries are so fond of will drive a stake through the heart of their beloved fossil fuel industry. We can’t wait!
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Renewables and nuclear provided 40.9% of the world’s power generation in 2024, passing the 40% mark for the first time since the 1940s, according to a new global energy think tank Ember report.
Renewables added a record 858 TWh in 2024, 49% more than the previous high in 2022. Solar was the largest contributor for the third year running, adding 474 TWh to reach a share of 6.9%. Solar was the fastest-growing power source (+29%) for the 20th year in a row.
Solar has doubled in just three years, providing more than 2,000 TWh of electricity in 2024. Wind generation also grew to 8.1% of global electricity, while hydro – the single largest renewable source – remained steady at 14% of global electricity.
“Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition,” said Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director. “Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”
Ember’s sixth annual Global Electricity Review, published today, provides the first comprehensive overview of the global power system in 2024 based on country-level data. It’s published alongside the world’s first open dataset on electricity generation in 2024, covering 88 countries that account for 93% of global electricity demand, as well as historical data for 215 countries.
What drove the rising power demand
The analysis finds that fossil fuels also saw a small 1.4% increase in 2024 due to surging electricity demand, pushing global power sector emissions up 1.6% to an all-time high.
Heatwaves were the main driver of the rise in fossil generation, accounting for almost a fifth (+0.7%) of the increase in global electricity demand in 2024 (+4.0%), mainly through additional use of cooling. Without these temperature effects, fossil fuel generation would have risen by only 0.2%, as clean electricity generation met 96% of the demand growth not caused by hotter temperatures.
“Amid the noise, it’s essential to focus on the real signal,” continued MacDonald. “Hotter weather drove the fossil generation increase in 2024, but we’re very unlikely to see a similar jump in 2025.”
Aside from weather effects, the increasing use of electricity for AI, data centers, EVs, and heat pumps is already contributing to global demand growth. Combined, the growing use of these technologies accounted for a 0.7% increase in global electricity demand in 2024, double what they contributed five years ago.
Clean power will grow faster than demand
Ember’s report shows that clean generation growth is set to outpace faster-rising demand in the coming years, marking the start of a permanent decline in fossil fuel generation. The current expected growth in clean generation would be sufficient to meet a demand increase of 4.1% per year to 2030, which is above expectations for demand growth.
“The world is watching how technologies like AI and EVs will drive electricity demand,” said MacDonald. “It’s clear that booming solar and wind are comfortably set to deliver, and those expecting fossil fuel generation to keep rising will be disappointed.”
Beyond emerging technologies, the growth trajectories of the world’s largest emerging economies will play a crucial role in defining the global outlook. More than half of the increase in solar generation in 2024 was in China, with its clean generation growth meeting 81% of its demand increase in 2024. India’s solar capacity additions in 2024 doubled compared to 2023. These two countries are at the forefront of the drive to clean power and will help tip the balance toward a decline in fossil generation at a global level.
Professor Xunpeng Shi, president of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), said: “The future of the global power system is being shaped in Asia, with China and India at the heart of the energy transition. Their increasing reliance on renewables to power demand growth marks a shift that will redefine the global power sector and accelerate the decline of fossil fuels.”
Read more: Made-in-America solar just got a big win in Louisiana
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The next-gen LEAF is almost here, and it’s looking better than ever. This isn’t the electric hatch you are used to seeing. Nissan’s new LEAF EV has more range, a fresh crossover design, and yes, it can finally charge up at Tesla Superchargers with an NACS port. With the official reveal just around the corner, someone already spotted the new LEAF at a Tesla charger in Canada.
Nissan is launching the new LEAF in the US and Canada
A little over a week ago, we finally got our first look at the third-generation LEAF. Nissan’s iconic electric hatch has grown into a “sleek and spacious family-friendly crossover.”
The US and Canada will be the first to see the reimagined LEAF later this year. It will join the Ariya in Nissan’s North American EV lineup as it looks to spark growth in one of its most important markets.
Based on the CMF-EV platform, the same one underpinning the Ariya, Nissan promises the new LEAF will have “significant range improvements.” Although no other details were revealed, Nissan’s vehicle programs chief, Francois Bailly, told TopGear.com that it’s expected to have WLTP driving range of up to 373 miles (600 km).
It will likely be lower on the EPA scale, but anything even close to 300 miles would be a major improvement over the current 212 EPA-estimated miles offered on the 2025 LEAF SV Plus.
The next-gen LEAF will also be Nissan’s first EV to feature an integrated NACS charging port. With its official debut later this year, the new model is out for testing and was just caught testing at a Tesla Supercharger in Canada.
If you didn’t know what vehicle it is, the LEAF is hardly recognizable. The new image from KindelAuto gives us a closer look at the new crossover design. It almost looks like a Tesla sitting in front of the charger.
The new LEAF is one of 10 new and refreshed Nissan vehicles set to launch in the US and Canada. It will arrive later this year, followed by the fourth-gen Rogue in 2026, which will be available as a PHEV for the first time.
Nissan also plans to build a new “adventure-focused SUV” at its Canton, Mississippi, plant in late 2027. The teaser shows what appears to be a rugged electric Xterra. We’ll have to wait for more details on that one.
Nissan will reveal additional info about the upcoming LEAF mid-year. Check back soon for more updates.
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The Port of Barcelona launched the Ecocat Tres, a highly efficient, all-electric commuter ferry powered by Molabo’s ARIES i50 electric motors.
Ecocat Tres is the latest zero-emission ferry in Bus Nàutic’s growing electric fleet, providing clean transportation between the Drassanes and Llevant wharves. In just its first three months, the Bus Nàutic service logged over 125,000 sustainable trips. Operated by ALSA and backed by the Port of Barcelona, the initiative offers locals and visitors an eco-friendly way to travel, cutting down on road congestion and air pollution in the bustling city.
Built by Spanish shipbuilder Metaltec Naval, Ecocat Tres is a 15-meter aluminum catamaran that carries up to 84 passengers. It even includes a rooftop deck, offering extra seating and a breezy ride across the port. The ferry runs every 15 to 30 minutes for at least 12 hours each day, with the entire trip taking about 10 minutes.
Under the deck are two powerful 48V Molabo ARIES i50 motors, enabling the electric ferry to hit a top speed of 12 knots. Cruising at its regular operational speed of 5 knots, Ecocat Tres can run efficiently for up to 21 hours on a single charge, making it highly reliable for daily commuters.
Molabo’s motors have a low-voltage setup, which makes them safer to maintain compared to traditional high-voltage electric systems. Passengers also enjoy a smoother, quieter ride thanks to significantly reduced noise and vibrations onboard. Azimut Marine supplied the full propulsion and energy system, which includes two ARIES 50 kW electric drives, 36 batteries providing a total of 216 kWh, fast chargers, and integrated solar panels. Impressively, solar power alone can cover up to 40% of the ferry’s energy needs.
Ecocat Tres will cut around 90 tons of CO2 emissions each year, making a positive impact on Barcelona’s ambitious climate goals.
Port of Barcelona president José Antonio Carbonell said, “This 100% electric, zero-emission passenger ferry is helping us reshape mobility in the port and accelerate the decarbonization of our operations.”
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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