Europe’s Current Energy Crisis Was Predictable — And Was Predicted
Headlines are highlighting Europe’s energy challenges at present, with extremely high natural gas prices shocking consumers and corporations. But this was entirely predictable, and in fact was predicted. The real problem was the pivot to natural gas as a bridge fuel, and too much focus on building efficiency instead of fuel switching.
Historic natural gas price fluctuations courtesy US EIA
This US data shows a clear picture that has implications globally. The fracking and shale oil boom of the 1990s to 2010s led to a period of unnatural stability in natural gas prices, and at a historically low level. The fracking companies started bankrupting in 2019 because their debt-fueled business model and race for the bottom was unsustainable. The COVID crisis put more pressure on them with globally reduced demand for both oil and gas, so more went under or significantly diminished operations. A few European countries banned fracking entirely, given its significant negative externalities of methane leakage, aquifer pollution, microquakes and general pollution.
Then the Saudi-Russian price war put a nail in the coffin of the unconventional extraction industry, targeted high-priced producers globally. That meant unconventional oil extraction was under the gun, and a great deal of natural gas comes from shale oil fields in many regions.
As a result, the ability to turn the natural gas supply up when demand increases has radically diminished around the world. It’s no longer effectively something with an infinite supply that can be turned up in weeks at most.
Over the same period, the world built a lot of natural gas plants to displace coal, a partial good as natural gas generation has lower emissions than coal, something that is somewhat challenged by methane leakage. Some, like Texas, restructured their electrical generation around the assumption of just-in-time extraction and delivery of natural gas, and they froze in the dark in February of 2021 as a result.
Europe is facing the another facet of the same challenge that Texas did eight months ago. It’s consuming 33% more natural gas annually than it did in 1990, after a short-lived decline in the early 2000s.
EU natural gas consumption 1990-2020 courtesy EU
Natural gas is now returning to its mid-2000s habit of being a fluctuating price resource, with both greater month-to-month variance and even greater seasonal variance. All economies and facilities that have made strategic business decisions based on the false assumption of low prices and price stability of natural gas are paying the price this year. Given the growing chorus of concern about methane leakage from natural gas and shale oil extraction sites over the past decade, and given the clear reality of the climate crisis, this isn’t a surprise.
It also adds another nail in the coffin of “blue” hydrogen as a future energy source, even as the oil and gas industry works really hard to dismantle the coffin. Most hydrogen from natural gas schemes assume cheap natural gas and stable prices, not significant demand competition for a limited resource. Already unaffordable with fictitious CCS, all governments should be looking at 2021’s natural gas price shocks and reliability failures and pivoting away from “blue” hydrogen, regardless of fossil fuel industry lobbying and tax revenues.
The answer to these challenges are clear as well. Governments focused on natural gas as a bridge fuel and building efficiency programs should have been focused on renewables and fuel-switching to a much greater degree. Wind and solar have no seasonal spikes in price, and managing intermittency is a matter of overbuilding cheap renewables, more transmission, and grid storage, all of which are clearly understood and modeled.
Building efficiency is good, but fuel-switching to eliminate gas furnaces and leaky high-GWP air conditioners by replacing them with modern heat pumps with low-GWP refrigerants with COPs of 3-4 avoids a lot more of the root causes of the problems we are facing. Low cost variance wind and solar supplying high-efficiency electric heat pumps is a long overdue policy.
This change in natural gas from a constantly low-priced commodity available in as big amounts as demanded was masked by lower demand during COVID as buildings sat empty through the winter of 2020-2021 and electrical consumption was down. However, as people returned to work or school in September and October of 2021, and the weather cooled, the completely predictable has occurred.
Heating demand and electrical demand has increased, demand for gas has increased, and supply of gas is effectively capped at a low level. Supply and demand being what they are, gas prices have shot up. This isn’t rocket science, this isn’t Kahneman and Tversky Nobel Prize-winning thinking on the psychology of how decisions are actually made, this is basic economics. Supply capped, demand up, price up.
I was predicting this in the first quarter of 2020 as an obvious outcome, and wasn’t alone in seeing it. The implications of fracking bankruptcies, COVID, and the Saudi-Russian price war should have been clear to anyone looking at the space. McKinsey had a report out late last year making much the same points, although they were doing it for different reasons than I am, as they happily work with oil and gas companies and countries to help them sell more fossil fuels more profitably, not something I choose to do.
Will policymakers see the writing on the wall clearly? Certainly Texas will refuse to accept the lessons of 2021, but that doesn’t mean the US as a whole will. Brussels and the European parliaments should be rethinking their power grids and hydrogen pipe dreams, and refocusing on actual solutions to the climate crisis. Canada should be backing away from its blue-tainted hydrogen policy, and pivoting to one that’s actually green.
But the usual suspects are blaming renewables for Europe’s current problems, just as they falsely blamed renewables for Texas’ problems earlier this year. Those voices are being amplified by the usual suspects, and policymakers are susceptible to hearing what they want to hear just as much as anyone. It’s a fight for reality, and sadly, the truth travels much more slowly than lies.
The lessons of 2021 are deep, rich, and far-reaching. But the pockets of the fossil fuel companies fighting for their lives, if not the lives of their children or their employees’ children, or the children of the world, are deep, rich, and far-reaching as well. As I’ve been writing about hydrogen regularly for the past years, pointing out the failures of assumptions about demand and supply, a regular refrain has been that while I’m clearly correct in what I’m saying, my analysis and the points of others such as Paul Martin, Mark Jacobson, and Robert Howarth, among many others, will be drowned in a flood of oil-soaked lobbying.
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Tesla has mysteriously announced that it is holding an ‘all-hands’ meeting in public live-streamed on X amid a tough quarter.
This is a first for the company.
This is a developing story. Refresh the page for updates.
At around 9:00 PM ET Thursday, Tesla posted a live stream on X with some sound checks titled “all hands meeting Q1 2025”, but it went down shortly after.
At 9:30PM ET, the stream went live again, but nothing started until 9:57 PM when a video about Tesla’s business started.
This new strategy of holding a surprise public meeting comes at the end of a challenging quarter for Tesla, as the automaker is expected to deliver fewer cars than it had in any quarter in the last 3 years.
- Musk is now on stage:
A “all-hands”, or town hall, is a company-wide gathering where all employees, leaders, and stakeholders discuss company-wide matters, ensuring everyone is on the same page and updated on key information.
- Musk says that Tesla is the top place to work.
- Musk release safety data:
- Musk says that a better to think about a sustainable economy is “abundance for all.”
- Musk claims that “everyone in the world will be able to get everything they want” – “good or service”.
- He says that AI and robotics are the keys to that – hence why Tesla is working on Optimus.
- Musk claims that Model Y is going to be the best-selling car this year despite having still 3 full quarters to go in the year.
- The CEO jokes about people burning down Tesla vehicles.
- Musk says “people should also buy the Model 3”.
- He again claims that the Cybertruck is bulletproof despite this being a stretch.
- Musk says that Tesla will make “millions of Tesla Semi trucks” and they will be autonomous in the future
- Musk again claims that “autonomous Teslas will be everywhere”. We will have regulatory approval globally in 5 years.
- The CEO again claims that “almost the entire existing fleet is autonomous”
- Musk references the stock market, as Tesla stock is crumbling, and repeated his self-driving claims about increasing value of Tesla vehicles through software updates that will make the cars autonomous.
- Musk literally just said “hold on to your stocks”
- Tesla’s stock is down 40% so far this year.
- Musk talks about Megapacks and Powerwalls. No real new information so far.
- Musk: my predictions have been pretty good.
- The CEO says that he believes Tesla makes the lowest cost per kWh battery cell in the world.
- Musk releases a few manufacturing updates:
- Musk says that Tesla is making progress with Dojo, which had fallen behind. The first version is active, but operating at “5% capacity”.
- Musk says it is a “significant milestone” to see the cars drive themselves at the factory, six years after he said that Tesla would make cross-country trips autonomously.
- Musk claims that Optimus is “the most sophisticated humanoid robot on earth”
- Boston Dynamics posted this yesterday:
- Musk claims that the difference is that Optimus has “real-world AI” even though he started a separate AI company: xAI.
- Musk now takes questions from employees.
- The CEO says that Tesla will make about 5,000 Optimus robots this year – 50,000 in 2026 and start selling them externally in the second of 2026.
- He says that it will be available to Tesla employees first.
- It’s getting pretty boring at this point. I might end this live blog.
Electrek’s Jamie Dow on the live stream: this whole thing is an AI video trained on elon videos from 10 years ago.
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Rooftop tent specialist iKamper has unveiled a new all-season tent designed exclusively for Rivian EV owners. The Skycamp Mini was designed to protect its inhabitants from high winds, UV Rays, and inclement weather and just popped up in the Rivian Gear Shop this afternoon. Check it out.
iKamper is an outdoors gear specialist founded in 2012 and based in the Pacific Northwest. The company specializes in vehicle accessories made from premium materials to withstand tough terrain and, as its website states, “adventures around the globe.”
Naturally, an EV automaker like Rivian is a match made in heaven, as the company ethos is based around nature and exploration (it even calls its branded EV chargers the Adventure Network). One of the perks of being a Rivian R1T or R1S owner is the accessories available in Rivian’s gear shop, including options like a travel kitchen, field kit, and surfboard mounts.
When Rivian’s flagship models debuted, so did a three-person tent designed in collaboration with Yakima, which is still available today for $2,800. Now, Rivian has introduced a second rooftop tent option to its customers, which is available through iKamper. It costs quite a bit more, but it also looks pretty stellar.
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iKamper’s new Rivian branded tent available in Gear Shop
Rivian shared a brief release with Electrek following the unveiling of the brand-specific rooftop tent from iKamper it calls the Skycamp Mini. Per the release:
Building off the platform of the famed Skycamp 3.0 Mini, the Rivian x iKamper Skycamp Mini features PFAS-free construction with a Rivian-inspired aesthetic, including exclusive color options, blacked-out hardware, Rivian-keyed mounting bracket locks and a sleek, aerodynamic hardshell that minimizes drag to maximize range. Outfitted with iKamper’s deluxe RTT Comfort self-inflating air mattress, this new collaboration delivers refined craftsmanship and rugged durability for year-round adventure.
As you can see from the images above, the Skycamp Mini features locking mounting brackets compatible with Rivian’s Adventure Key Set and an aerodynamic hard shell storage case that sits on the truck bed or roof of a R1T or R1S, respectively, atop the EV’s cargo crossbars (sold separately).
The rooftop tent kit includes iKamper’s FTT Comfort 4-inch mattress. According to its creators, the tent can sleep one to two people and withstand wind up to 35 mph, protecting Rivian owners from the sun and rain. Kaila Vandermey, commercial lead for Rivian Adventure Gear spoke:
Rivian vehicles are built to empower exploration. Partnering with iKamper on the Rivian x iKamper Skycamp Mini, is the perfect accessory to complement and elevate that adventurous lifestyle. No matter where your adventure takes you, this mini rooftop tent delivers the freedom to explore and rest wherever you choose.
You can view more images of the iKamper Skycamp Mini on the Rivian Adventure Shop homepage. Still, it redirects you to the iKamper website to purchase one for a starting price of $4,595. That’s not all, though. To support this product launch, iKamper said it will include its Disco Series Stove outdoor cooking system as a bonus for customers who preorder the Rivian-specific rooftop tent while supplies last.
What do you think? Dope, or nope?
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Environment
Tesla protesters get rolled coal by diesel lover: no one knows which side is which anymore
In a new viral video, a diesel truck driver rolled coal over dozens of Tesla protesters peacefully exercising their First Amendment rights.
It’s not clear which side is which at this point.
“Rolling coal” is a term used when truck drivers with modified diesel engines deliberately emit large amounts of black or grey smoke, sometimes directed at specific cars or people – often as a form of anti-environmentalism protest or to be obnoxious.
It is illegal in most jurisdictions due to violating clean air laws.
Tesla drivers used to be the target of diesel truck owners rolling coal. I wrote about it several times to point out that some truck owners hate Tesla for no reason.
It’s impressive how quickly the world changes.
Now, you have thousands of people around the US protesting at Tesla locations. You would think that those Tesla-hating truck drivers would be on the protesters’ side, but that’s not the case anymore.
Instagram user Pierce6.4 posted a video of himself rolling coal in his Ford F-250 6.4 on protestors in front of a Tesla store this weekend:
The video went viral and was reposted by several pages on Facebook and X. Most commentators on Pierce’s page joked about how he should have gotten closer.
Not only are rolling coal diesel truck drivers now against peaceful people protesting Tesla, but some Tesla fans and shareholders are with those diesel truck drivers.
On a Tesla shareholder’s Facebook group, a top contributor posted the video favorably, and another added he is surprised to be on the same side as the diesel truck driver:
It shows a clear divide within Tesla fans as the brand and its CEO are increasingly politicized.
Electrek’s Take
We live in the weirdest timeline possible. A few years ago, peabrain truck drivers were rolling coal on Tesla drivers to protest against electric vehicles.
Now, you have environmentalists protesting Tesla and truck drivers rolling coal on Tesla protestors.
If you would have told me this is where we would be just 3 years ago, I would have never believed you.
First off, there’s obviously no excuse for this. These people peacefully protested, which is their right under the US Constitution.
Attacking them like that is not only dangerous and polluting, but it is, at its core, un-American.
Secondly, the fact that they are people who call themselves Tesla fans cheering shows that the community has lost its moral compass.
It’s all about money and the stock; it’s not about the mission anymore.
Where is the outrage from Tesla fans? I have condemned vandalism against Tesla vehicles and property, but this is objectively worse. It’s a direct physical attack on Tesla protesters. It’s not acceptable.
As a long-time Tesla fan and defender of its mission to accelerate the world’s transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy, I never felt so disconnected from this community.
This highlights Tesla’s main issue right now under CEO Elon Musk: it is becoming an entirely politicized brand.
For the left, Tesla is Musk’s personal piggy bank to finance the rise of fascism in the US.
For the right, Tesla is Musk’s personal piggy bank to finance the rise of fascism in the US
While that’s happening, Tesla can’t succeed at its mission to transition the world to a sustainable economy, and we all lose.
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