Firms are increasingly putting up prices as they pass on soaring costs, according to new figures that are likely to add to fears of a squeeze on household budgets.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found 10% of businesses increased their prices in early September, up from 8% in mid-August and 4% in late December last year.
The figures came as the Bank of England’s new chief economist said the “magnitude and duration” of the recent upturn in inflation was proving greater than expected.
Image: Energy bills look set to rise further
Meanwhile new data published on Thursday showed global food prices at a ten-year peak.
It all adds to a cocktail of financial worries for consumers with energy bills looking set to climb further and experts warning of a possible 5% rise in council taxes.
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Regulator Ofgem acknowledged that if wholesale gas prices – which this week hit record levels – remain high the price cap on energy bills affecting millions of households, which has only just gone up by 12%, will need to go up again.
Businesses are experiencing surging costs thanks to a series of factors including supply chain strains – such as those caused by a shortage of HGV drivers – as well as recruitment difficulties and wage hikes and the rising global prices of commodities and energy.
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The latest data from the ONS, recorded at the start of September, showed 29% of businesses had seen the prices of materials, goods or services bought in the last two weeks increase by more than their normal price fluctuations.
Figures also showed that while 10% of all businesses were passing higher prices on to customers, a larger number of manufacturers (25%) were doing so, as were firms involved in wholesale and retail sales and vehicle repair (23%).
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Labour shortage squeezes food supply chain
Among companies classed as providing “other service activities” – ranging from professional associations and computer repair to dry cleaning and hair dressing – 22% increased prices.
Latest official data shows consumer price inflation running at 3.2% in August, a nine-year high, and the Bank of England expects it to top 4% later this year.
The broad background to the price spiral is a sudden jolt to higher demand as pandemic restrictions ease which has left supply struggling to keep up.
In answers to a series of questions from MPs published on Thursday, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said that as the pandemic recedes and “the level of composition of global demand and supply normalise” these price pressures should ease.
“But the magnitude and duration of the transient inflation spike is proving greater than expected,” he added.
Elsewhere, an index published by the Rome-based Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), which tracks prices for the most globally-traded food commodities, recorded an average of 130 points last month, the highest since September 2011.
The upturn was driven by cereals and vegetable oils and meant that on a year-on-year basis, prices were up by 32.8%.
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August: BoE governor: Inflation issue will be ‘temporary’
Earlier, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a respected economic think-tank, warned that council tax may have to rise by up to 5% a year as local authorities continue to contend with pandemic-related spending pressures and the government’s new social care policies.
At the same time, analysis by experts at Cornwall Insight suggests that the energy price cap – which affects 15 million households – could go up by another 30% when it is reviewed again next year, thanks to soaring wholesale gas prices.
Separately, a report from the National Grid showed the margin of electricity supply would be tighter this winter than a year ago – while expressing confidence that there was enough capacity to keep the lights on.
However, the grid is likely to have to utilise market alerts calling for some power stations to ramp up tight supply.
Such “margin notices”, which were also used last winter, tend to push wholesale prices up though they are now already close to levels seen at such times of stress.
Britain’s trade deal with India has created a pocket of controversy on taxation.
Under the agreement, Indian workers who have been seconded to Britain temporarily will not have to pay National Insurance (NI) contributions in the UK. Instead, they will continue to pay the Indian exchequer.
The same applies to British workers in India. It avoids workers from being taxed twice for a full suite of benefits they will not receive, such as the state pension.
Politicians of all stripes have leapt to judgement.
Nigel Farage has described it as a “big tax exemption” for Indian workers. He said it was “impossible to say how many will come,” with the Reform Party warning of “more mass immigration, more pressure on the NHS, more pressure on housing.”
But, is this deal really undercutting British workers or is it simply creating a level playing field?
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Be wary of any hasty conclusions. In the absence of an impact assessment from the government, it is difficult to be precise about any of this. However, at first glance, it is unlikely that some of Reform’s worst fears will play out.
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Firstly, avoiding double taxation is not the same thing as a “tax break.’ This type of agreement, known as a double contribution convention, is not new.
Britain has similar arrangements with other countries and blocs, including the US, EU, Canada and Japan.
It’s based on the principle that workers shouldn’t be paying twice for social security taxes that they will not benefit from.
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UK-India trade deal explained
Indian workers and businesses will still have to pay the equivalent tax in India, as well as sponsorship fees and the NHS surcharge.
Crucially, the deal only applies to workers being sent over by Indian companies on a temporary basis.
Those workers are on Indian payroll. It does not apply to Indian workers more generally. That means businesses in the UK can’t (and won’t) suddenly be replacing all their workers with Indians.
The conditions for a company to send over a secondee on a work visa are restrictive. It means it’s unlikely that these workers will be replacing British workers.
However, It does mean that the exchequer will not capture the extra national insurance tax from those who come over on this route.
The government has not shared its impact assessment for how many extra Indians they expect to come over on this route, how much NI they will escape, or how much this will be offset by extra income tax from those Indians. The net financial position is therefore murky.
The little-known investor cutting a swathe through the British high street has made it onto a shortlist of bidders vying to buy Poundland, the struggling discounter.
Sky News has learnt that Modella is among a handful of bidders notified in recent days that they have made it through to a second stage of the auction of Poundland.
Its progress in the sale process raises the prospect of Modella taking ownership of its fourth major British retailer in less than nine months.
The investment firm already owns Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, where it has in recent weeks launched company voluntary arrangements – court-sanctioned restructuring deals which allow it to close loss-making stores and slash rent payments.
That deal has yet to close, and Sky News reported at the weekend that Modella will effectively be prohibited from launching a CVA there for at least a year under the terms of its deal with WH Smith.
Among the other suitors for Poundland are Endless, the turnaround investor, and Hilco Capital, the new owner of Lakeland.
Poundland has been put up for sale by Pepco Group, its Warsaw-listed owner, amid mounting losses and a struggle to turn the company around.
Pepco confirmed in March that it planned to explore a sale of the business, with Teneo hired to advise on an auction.
Last year, Poundland, which employs about 18,000 people, recorded roughly €2bn of sales.
Earlier this year, Pepco, which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.
In an accompanying trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.
Recent tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have also increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.
Modella declined to comment on its interest in Poundland.
China has revealed a series of measures designed to help its economy navigate the effects of the escalating trade war with the United States, hours after exploratory peace talks were announced.
Senior officials from both sides are to meet in Switzerland this weekend for what are understood to be the first face-to-face meeting between the world’s two largest economies in months.
The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% while Beijing has responded with levies of 125% in recent weeks.
The effects are starting to be felt in both countries in respect of price, supply and business sentiment.
China’s export-dominated economy is showing strain in terms of factory order books while official figures recently revealed that the US economy contracted between January and March.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng will lead their respective delegations.
President Trump had previously suggested that any talks would look to lower tariffs but China has demanded the US moves first.
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A Commerce Ministry spokesperson said: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”
Commentators said it was impossible to know what could be achieved at the talks in Geneva but cautioned that any meaningful truce would take months to fully iron out.
Official Chinese economic data is yet to show the extent of the harm the trade war is causing but a coordinated stimulus effort was revealed by the authorities on Wednesday.
Officials from the country’s central bank outlined plans to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.
It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally as the country battles deflation.
Other help included government funding for factory upgrades.