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Firms are increasingly putting up prices as they pass on soaring costs, according to new figures that are likely to add to fears of a squeeze on household budgets.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found 10% of businesses increased their prices in early September, up from 8% in mid-August and 4% in late December last year.

The figures came as the Bank of England’s new chief economist said the “magnitude and duration” of the recent upturn in inflation was proving greater than expected.

A generic stock photo of an elderly lady with her electric fire on at home in Liverpool. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Wednesday November 19, 2014. See PA story . Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Energy bills look set to rise further

Meanwhile new data published on Thursday showed global food prices at a ten-year peak.

It all adds to a cocktail of financial worries for consumers with energy bills looking set to climb further and experts warning of a possible 5% rise in council taxes.

Regulator Ofgem acknowledged that if wholesale gas prices – which this week hit record levels – remain high the price cap on energy bills affecting millions of households, which has only just gone up by 12%, will need to go up again.

Businesses are experiencing surging costs thanks to a series of factors including supply chain strains – such as those caused by a shortage of HGV drivers – as well as recruitment difficulties and wage hikes and the rising global prices of commodities and energy.

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The latest data from the ONS, recorded at the start of September, showed 29% of businesses had seen the prices of materials, goods or services bought in the last two weeks increase by more than their normal price fluctuations.

Figures also showed that while 10% of all businesses were passing higher prices on to customers, a larger number of manufacturers (25%) were doing so, as were firms involved in wholesale and retail sales and vehicle repair (23%).

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Labour shortage squeezes food supply chain

Among companies classed as providing “other service activities” – ranging from professional associations and computer repair to dry cleaning and hair dressing – 22% increased prices.

Latest official data shows consumer price inflation running at 3.2% in August, a nine-year high, and the Bank of England expects it to top 4% later this year.

The broad background to the price spiral is a sudden jolt to higher demand as pandemic restrictions ease which has left supply struggling to keep up.

In answers to a series of questions from MPs published on Thursday, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said that as the pandemic recedes and “the level of composition of global demand and supply normalise” these price pressures should ease.

“But the magnitude and duration of the transient inflation spike is proving greater than expected,” he added.

Elsewhere, an index published by the Rome-based Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), which tracks prices for the most globally-traded food commodities, recorded an average of 130 points last month, the highest since September 2011.

The upturn was driven by cereals and vegetable oils and meant that on a year-on-year basis, prices were up by 32.8%.

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August: BoE governor: Inflation issue will be ‘temporary’

Earlier, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a respected economic think-tank, warned that council tax may have to rise by up to 5% a year as local authorities continue to contend with pandemic-related spending pressures and the government’s new social care policies.

At the same time, analysis by experts at Cornwall Insight suggests that the energy price cap – which affects 15 million households – could go up by another 30% when it is reviewed again next year, thanks to soaring wholesale gas prices.

Separately, a report from the National Grid showed the margin of electricity supply would be tighter this winter than a year ago – while expressing confidence that there was enough capacity to keep the lights on.

However, the grid is likely to have to utilise market alerts calling for some power stations to ramp up tight supply.

Such “margin notices”, which were also used last winter, tend to push wholesale prices up though they are now already close to levels seen at such times of stress.

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

One of Britain’s leading venture capital investors is close to unveiling a deal to take over a nascent fintech fund which counted Lord Hammond, the former chancellor, among its advisors.

Sky News has learnt that Octopus Ventures has provisionally agreed to absorb the Fintech Growth Fund (FGF), which boasted of financial commitments from Barclays, the London Stock Exchange’s parent company, Mastercard and NatWest Group after it was set up three years ago.

The FGF has struggled to hit its original fundraising target and has yet to formally disclose any investments.

Sources close to a number of its investors said it was expected to be taken over by Octopus Investments in the coming weeks, with the transaction to be completed by the end of June.

Peel Hunt, the investment bank, had been advising on the fundraising for the last two years, and was itself an investor in the fund.

The FGF was originally conceived as a vehicle that would back high-potential UK-based fintechs, largely between their Series B and pre-public listing rounds of funding.

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According to an announcement made in August 2023, it aimed to make between four and eight investments annually, with cheques of between £10m and £100m.

In addition to Lord Hammond, the FGF’s advisory board included Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former Virgin Money boss; Baroness Morrissey, the former Legal & General Investment Management executive; Lord Grimstone, the former trade minister; and Sir Charles Bowman, former Lord Mayor of London.

Octopus Investments, which is now run by Erin Platt, the former boss of Silicon Valley Bank UK, is said to have significant ambitions for the FGF, which has built a lengthy pipeline of potential investments.

A spokesperson for Octopus Investments declined to comment this weekend, while the FGF could not be reached for comment.

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

The new owner of The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), one of Britain’s leading independent discount retailers, is preparing to unveil a package of savage rent cuts for its store landlords.

Sky News understands that Modella Capital – which recently agreed to buy WH Smith’s high street arm – is finalising plans for a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at TOFS.

City sources said the CVA – which requires court approval – could be unveiled within days.

Property sources cited industry rumours that significant store closures and job losses could form part of TOFS’ plans, while demands for two-year rent-free periods at some shops are said to also feature.

A spokesman for Modella declined to comment.

Modella, which also owns Hobbycraft, bought TOFS from its previous owner, Duke Street Capital, just two months ago.

Almost immediately, it engaged restructuring experts at Interpath to work on the plans.

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Sources have speculated that dozens of TOFS stores could close under a CVA, while a major distribution centre is also thought to feature in the proposals.

Any so-called ‘landlord-led’ CVA which triggered store closures would inevitably lead to job losses among TOFS’ workforce, which was said to number about 1,800 people at the time of the takeover.

TOFS, which sells beauty brands such as L’Oreal, the sportswear label Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker, trades from about 180 stores.

The chain, which was founded in 1969, was bought by the private equity firm Duke Street in 2007.

Duke Street had tried to sell the business before, having supported it through the COVID-19 pandemic with a cash injection of more than £10m.

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