U.S. EIA Projects Nearly 50% Increase in World Energy Use by 2050, Led by Growth in Renewables
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Reference case, we project that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, global energy consumption will increase nearly 50% over the next 30 years. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the world’s largest energy source in 2050, renewable energy sources, which include solar and wind, will grow to nearly the same level.
Falling technology costs and government policies that provide incentives for renewables will lead to the growth of renewable electricity generation to meet growing electricity demand. As a result, renewables will be the fastest-growing energy source for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We project that coal and nuclear use will decrease in OECD countries, although the decrease will be more than offset by increased coal and nuclear use in non-OECD countries.
We project that global use of petroleum and other liquids will return to pre-pandemic (2019) levels by 2023, driven entirely by growth in non-OECD energy consumption. We do not project OECD liquid fuel use to return to pre-pandemic levels at any point in the next 30 years, in part because of increased fuel efficiency.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021 Reference case. Note: Delivered consumption includes fuels directly used by the end-use sectors as well as electricity, excluding generation, transmission, and distribution losses.
We project that global use of petroleum and other liquids will return to pre-pandemic (2019) levels by 2023, driven entirely by growth in non-OECD energy consumption. We do not project OECD liquid fuel use to return to pre-pandemic levels at any point in the next 30 years, in part because of increased fuel efficiency.
Delivered electricity consumption will grow the most in the residential end-use sector. We project that in non-OECD countries, electricity will account for more than half of the energy used in households by 2050, compared with 33% in 2020. In non-OECD commercial buildings, we project that electricity will make up an even larger share of energy consumption in 2050, at 64%.
Globally, we project increased consumption of natural gas through 2050. The industrial sector is the main contributor to the growth in global natural gas consumption through 2050 in our Reference case, largely in non-OECD countries. Across OECD countries, gains in energy efficiency will reduce household natural gas use by 2050. The industrial sector will use the largest share of both natural gas and coal among all end-use sectors. Industrial coal use will expand fastest in non-OECD countries, where energy-intensive industries such as iron and steel production are expanding more quickly than in OECD countries.
Originally published on TODAY IN ENERGY.
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If you’re considering going electric, May will be a great time to score a deal on an EV lease. Automakers are slashing lease prices on some of the most popular EVs to move inventory – here are four standouts.
Nissan Ariya SUV
The Nissan Ariya SUV has an MSRP of $41,805. Its lease term is 36 months, with $4,409 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. Monthly payment? A sweet $129!
Nissan cut the 2025 Ariya Engage’s price by $144 in April, so it now has an effective monthly cost of $251 – that’s seriously affordable for an electric SUV. If you’re already a Nissan driver, then you’re going to get an even better deal, because Nissan is offering a $1,000 loyalty discount on the Ariya, which brings its effective cost down to $224 per month.
CarsDirect, which sniffed out this deal, thinks this Ariya deal will be in place until Memorial Day, so take advantage of tariff-free pricing while you can.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Nissan Ariya in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
Honda Prologue SUV
The Honda Prologue SUV has an MSRP of $48,850. Its lease term is 36 months, with $1,399 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. The monthly payment on the Prologue is $239.
The 2024 Honda Prologue has up to $18,800 in rebates, and the price includes a $1,000 lease loyalty discount or conquest offer. In California and other ZEV states, the EX has an effective cost of just $278 per month; in other parts of the US, pricing will be around $30 higher. This offer ends July 7.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Honda Prologue in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
Tesla Model 3
The Tesla Model 3 has an MSRP of $43,880. Its best lease term is 24 months, with $1,044 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. The monthly payment on the Model 3 is $349.
The 2025 Tesla Model 3 still has the $7,500 federal government EV rebate. Several months ago, Tesla reduced the amount due at signing on all Model 3s. And for those who want to lease a Long Range Model 3, the effective cost can be as low as $393 per month.
You can lease the Model 3 for 36 months, but the folks at CarsDirect found that the better deal will be had on 24-month leases. They compared the Model 3’s MSRP to the 2025 Lexus IS 300 F Sport’s MSRP, which is nearly identical, and the Model 3 was around 30% cheaper to lease.
Acura ZDX
The 2024 Acura ZDX has an MSRP of $65,850. Its best lease term is 36 months, with $4,699 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 7,500 a year. The monthly payment on the ZDX is $299.
The 2024 ZDX is Acura’s cheapest vehicle to lease because it features up to $29,450 in lease cash. However, the best deal is limited to California and ZEV states. If you cash in on a loyalty discount or conquest cash, the effective cost is $430 per month. This offer runs til June 30.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Acura ZDX in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
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Ford (F) reported its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s revenue and EPS expectations. However, with Trump’s auto tariffs, Ford is suspending full-year guidance. Here’s a breakdown of Ford’s Q1 2025 earnings
Ford Q1 2025 earnings preview
After crosstown rival General Motors cut its full-year financial guidance last week, investors are waiting to see if Ford will follow suit.
Ford’s previous 2025 forecast called for EBIT of $7 billion to $8.5 billion and capital expenditures between $8 billion and $9 billion.
The biggest threat is Trump’s new auto tariffs, which include a 25% duty on imported vehicles and many parts. Since Ford builds a greater percentage of vehicles in the US than any other major automaker, outside of Tesla, it isn’t expected to see as big of an impact.
CEO Jim Farley called it “an opportunity for Ford,” during an interview with CNN last week, saying the company has a “different footprint, a different exposure for tariffs.”
Ford imports around 21% of the vehicles it sells in the US, while GM imports around 46%. According to Estimize, Wall St expects Ford to post Q1 EPS of $0.0 on revenue of $38.02 billion.
The company reports earnings for each of its three business units, Ford Blue (gas-powered vehicles), Model e (electric vehicles), and Ford Pro (commercial and software business).
In the fourth quarter, Ford’s EV unit (Model e) lost another $1.4 billion while Pro and Blue each reported an adjusted EBIT of $1.6 billion.
Financial breakdown
Ford beat Wall Street estimates, reporting first-quarter revenue of $40.7 billion with an adjusted EPS of 0.49.
- Q1 2025 Revenue: $40.7 billion vs $38.02 billion expected.
- Q1 2025 Adjusted EPS: $0.49 vs $0.0 expected.
The company posted adjusted EBIT of $1 billion, down 63% from Q1 2024. Ford said its first-quarter EBIT suffered a nearly $200 million hit from added tariff costs, primarily in Ford Blue and Ford Pro.
Ford Pro generated an EBIT of $1.3 billion, Ford Blue $96 million, and Ford Model e reported an EBIT loss of $849 million.
For Model e, the company is focused on improving gross margins and “exercising a disciplined approach to investments in battery facilities and next-generation products.” Although still a nearly $1 billion loss, it’s still a $500 million improvement from Q1 2024.
Ford said higher Model e revenue was driven by new EVs launching in Europe, like the electric Explorer and Capri.
The company said its “Power Promise” promotion, which includes a free home charger and several other benefits, has helped drive demand in the US.
Although it’s tracking within its previous full-year adjusted EBIT guidance of between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, Ford is suspending full-year guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
Ford estimates the full-year gross cost of tariffs to be around $2.5 billion. It expects a tariff-related net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 billion for the full year 2025.
Ford also extended its “From America, For America” campaign last week. The promo includes employee pricing on most 2024 and 2025 models and now runs through July 4.
Check back for more info from Ford’s first quarter conference call. Ford is also hosting its annual meeting on Thursday, May 8, where we should learn more about its EV plans and how it will navigate the new tariffs.
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