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The Point of Ayr Gas Terminal in Talacre, Wales, on September 20, 2021.
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A global energy crunch is sending natural gas prices soaring in the U.K., Europe and Asia hitting record highs. However, experts say the stratospheric prices seen in Europe are unlikely to carry over to the States.

Much will ultimately depend on what the winter weather brings. But the U.S. is better positioned heading into the colder months given that it’s the world’s largest natural gas producer, and because inventory levels are not as depleted as they are in Europe.

“We’re at a unique point in time now where just all energy prices are going up,” Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities, equity derivatives and cross-asset quantitative investment strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said last week on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” “The U.S. is much more insulated from this global energy trend than the rest of the world,” he added.

That’s not to say U.S. prices won’t be volatile. Natural gas futures settled at their highest level since December 2008 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the contract traded as high as $6.466 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). 

Natural gas for November delivery has since eased from that level, but it’s still on track for the seventh straight week of gains. The contract currently trades around $5.63 per MMBtu, which is more than double where prices were at the beginning of the year. 

But the moves abroad are far more extreme. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that in Europe prices are up five fold, while in the U.S. and Asia prices are about 1.5 times higher. In Europe, the price spike in natural gas is equivalent to if oil were trading around $200 per barrel.

“The importance of these moves on inflation, growth and external accounts are not to be underestimated,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. “These price moves are a big deal.”

Coal and oil prices are also jumping. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, topped $80 per barrel on Friday for the first time since November 2014. International benchmark Brent crude, meanwhile, traded at its highest level since 2018. Analysts say that elevated natural gas prices could even prompt utilities to swap the fuel for oil.

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Why are prices jumping?

A number of factors are fueling the price surge in natural gas and commodities like oil and coal more generally.

Demand is rebounding as economies get back to business and consumers return to pre-pandemic activities. At the same time, producers, who suffered through 2020’s unprecedented downturn, have been slow to hike output. 

A colder and longer-than-expected 2020 winter meant that European inventory levels were below average heading into the fall. On top of that, slow wind speeds and dry conditions weighed on renewables’ energy output. Carbon offsets are pricey and the continent has moved away from coal-fired plants, meaning everyone was suddenly competing for natural gas.

Europe’s gas production has declined over the last two decades, and the continent now depends on imports from Russia. The country has limited supplies to Europe this year in what some have called a politically motivated move, although this week President Vladimir Putin said Russia could boost output in an effort to alleviate the strain in Europe. 

Europe is not the only place in need of supplies. Asian demand is jumping as countries including China look to shift away from dependence on coal. In some cases, cargoes are bypassing Europe for Asia, where they can get better prices. 

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies summarized this confluence of factors, noting it creates “this perfect storm.”

What about in the U.S.?

While the U.S. has its own power problems, as demonstrated in Texas last winter when millions of customers were left in the dark for multiple days, the same price jump and energy crunch playing out in Europe and Asia is unlikely to happen.

“[The U.S.] hasn’t had to rely on the rest of the world to provide its supply and that’s really what Europe’s problem has been,” said Robert Thummel, managing director at TortoiseEcofin. He noted that the shortage stems not from a lack of supply, but rather from a lack of infrastructure — specifically for liquified natural gas. 

“You’re not going to see the U.S. to the rescue here, because there’s just not enough infrastructure on either side — on the U.S. side or the European side and most importantly on the Asian side to solve this,” he added.

At the end of the day, Thummel said his forecast for natural gas prices all comes down to weather. A normal winter could see prices stay slightly elevated in the $3 to $4 range, while warmer-than-expected temperatures could see a retreat to between $2.50 and $3. On the flip side, if temperatures drop prices could spike into the double digits.

While the U.S. is in a better position than Europe heading into the winter, such wild swings in overseas energy markets do have cascading effects around the globe. This week Credit Suisse lifted its forecast for fourth-quarter prices by more than 60% — from $3.50 MMBtu to $5.75 MMBtu.

“The near-term set-up around winter storage inventories and increasingly tight global demand fundamentals have proven more bullish than we had anticipated,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. While the new target is elevated relative to average prices in recent years, it’s still below the $6 level natural gas crossed last week.

JPMorgan, meanwhile, raised its 2022 annual average price forecast by $1.70 MMBtu to $4.81 MMBtu in a note titled “unthinkable upside, limited downside.” The firm made sure to point out that it’s atypical to adjust forecasts right before winter weather reports become available. But this time it was warranted. Analysts said there was an “absolute need” to adjust forecasts given the “risks that are plaguing this balance at the current time.”

“We go where the US supply and demand balance takes us, and it has taken us to a place that hasn’t been visited in quite some time,” the firm said. For the current quarter, JPMorgan envisions prices averaging $5.50 MMBtu, which would bring 2021’s average price to $3.65 MMBtu.

While the energy crunch is likely the primary driver of the price action, some of the volatility could also be from Wall Street firms shorting futures into the massive rally, and subsequently being forced to cover positions.

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Tesla now distinguishes cars by battery suppliers for tax credit eligibility

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Tesla now distinguishes cars by battery suppliers for tax credit eligibility

Tesla is now distinguishing its cars between battery suppliers in order for people who are eligible for the tax credit to get it.

Electric vehicle manufacturers in the US are still adapting to the increasingly more stringent rules of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

The increased requirements for more battery material and component sourcing have shuffled the eligibility of some vehicles, and for Tesla vehicles, it can change depending on the trim.

We recently noted that Tesla managed to get its Model 3 Long Range to get access to the full tax credit. Prior to that, its generally more expensive Performance variant would cost less due to access to the tax credit.

Now, Tesla has come up with an interesting solution to optimize the use of the cells so that more people can get access to the credit.

On its inventory page, Tesla has now added a new toggle for ‘Tax Credit Eligible Vehicles’:

Screenshot

What this toggle does is distinguish vehicles with Panasonic cells, which are eligible for the tax credit, rather LG cells, which are not.

This makes sense because the vehicle and the buyer need to be eligible. The eligibility criteria for buyers are $150,000 in individual income or $300,000 for dual filers.

If you don’t fit those criteria, it makes sense to get a car that doesn’t have those cells since you won’t get the credit anyway.

Electrek’s Take

This is a great idea to optimize access to the tax credit. However, it leaves people who are not eligible with a choice because, technically, the Panasonic cells are a little more desirable even without the credit.

They are known to charge a little faster than the LG cells.

It’s not a huge difference, but it’s something that people should at least know about before buying.

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Rivian (RIVN) talks R2, cost-cutting, and more during 2024 Investor Day: Here’s the latest

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Rivian (RIVN) talks R2, cost-cutting, and more during 2024 Investor Day: Here's the latest

At its first Investor Day on Thursday, Rivian gave several insights into the EV maker’s future. CEO RJ Scaringe explained how Rivian’s software-defined EVs, built from the ground up, and other in-house tech are evolving for its next-gen vehicles.

Check out the latest from Rivian’s 2024 Investor Day below.

The next growth stage

Rivian held its first Investor Day on Thursday. In a Tesla-like presentation, Scaringe outlined Rivian’s roadmap to profitability.

A Rivian is not just any other vehicle. Rivian’s Adventure Vehicles were built from day one to improve over time. “On day 300, it’s a better vehicle,” Rivian’s CEO said during the event.

Perhaps, more importantly, Rivian is learning to build them at a “significantly” lower cost, passing the savings onto buyers.

After building an authentic luxury EV brand, Rivian is making its vehicles more accessible. Rivian shut down its Normal, IL plant in April to improve efficiency. Scaringe said the updates and supplier negotiations have resulted in “significant cost improvements.”

The company cut out 100 steps from its battery-making process, over 50 components from the body shop, and 500 parts from the design.

Rivian-costs
Production at Rivian’s Normal, IL plant (Source: Rivian)

Its focus on a scalable, flexible platform, built from the ground up, is paving the way for its future EVs.

Rivian outlines R2, future plans during 2024 Investor Day

Rivian introduced its smaller, cheaper R2 electric vehicle in March. Starting at $45,000, Rivian’s R2 is nearly half the cost of the R1S and R1T models.

After scoring over 68,000 reservations in less than 24 hours, Rivian’s R2 is expected to significantly expand its market.

Rivian-investor-day
Rivian R2 (Source: Rivian)

Rivian’s R1S is already one of the top-selling EVs. Through the first three months of 2024, Rivian’s R1S was the fourth top-selling EV in the US, behind only Tesla’s Model Y, Model 3, and Ford’s Mustang Mach-E.

According to Scaringe, it’s also the top-selling large vehicle in California, electric or gas. The tech and features driving demand will translate to a lower price point in the R2, R3, and beyond.

Rivian-investor-day
(Source: Rivian)

Rivian is consolidating ECUs, harness length, and electrical parts to cut costs. In addition to supplier negotiations and more efficient manufacturing, Rivian is confident R2 will help drive profits.

Rivian plans to begin R2 production in Normal in early 2026. Although initially Rivian planned to build R2 at its new GA plant, the move will help save $2.25 billion. More importantly, it will help get R2 to market earlier.

Rivian-investor-day
(Source: Rivian)

The new partnership with Volkswagen shows the flexibility of Rivian’s platform. Rivian’s head of software, Wassym Bensaid, said the platform can be scaled up or down for more variants.

Bensaid explained how Rivian is focused on getting its software and hardware into more EVs globally. With software at the heart, Rivian’s vehicles will continue improving over time.

Rivian-investor-day
(Source: Rivian)

Since launching, Rivian has rolled out more than 30 OTA updates, adding over 500 features. It continues to take feedback to add new features like Snow Mode and Launch Mode.

Rivian’s platform enables continuous improvement and can be used for new functions, like autonomy. Using AI and machine learning, the software constantly takes in information, analyzes it, and improves via OTA updates.

Rivian-investor-day
(Source: Rivian)

Scaringe explained how Rivian’s new Enduro and Ascend drive units, built in-house, are driving down costs while improving performance.

The new Ascend motor is paving the way for future improvements for the R2 and further generation vehicles.

Rivian-investor-day
(Source: Rivian)

Maximus, or “Enduro Gen 2,” the drive R2 and R3 drive units, is focused on cost savings with less labor and parts. The side-mounted inverter optimizes packaging.

Rivian has also significantly reduced the number of parts to support lower costs. For example, the R2 has 65% fewer parts than the R1S.

Despite its cheaper price point, the EV maker promises that R2 will still have the essence of a Rivian.

Check back for more updates from Rivian’s 2024 Investor Day.

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The EU has revised its proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs… but only in the slightest

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The EU has revised its proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs... but only in the slightest

A new report states that the European Union has slightly tweaked its proposed tariffs on imported EVs from certain Chinese automakers after those companies divulged more details of their businesses. The tariff cuts are marginal but could offer a shred of hope that the EU is still willing to negotiate said duties before they are imposed next week.

Another week, another chapter in the ongoing bluster of a potential trade war following proposed tariffs by the EU on Chinese-built EVs entering the region.

You probably know the backstory by now. The EU Commission opened an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EV imports, deeming them unfair in competition, threatened new tariffs, the US imposed tariffs of its own quadrupled to 100%, etc.

Last we reported, Canada had joined the fracas, mulling tariffs on Chinese EVs to align with its US and EU trade partners. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce had criticized the EU Commission’s anti-subsidy probing, claiming the requested details from foreign automakers were “unprecedented” and compared the probe to spy-like levels of inquisition.

Earlier this month, China’s Ministry of Commerce met in Beijing with several automakers subject to the EU probe, including state-owned SAIC and BYD. The meeting also included European automakers like BMW, Volkswagen, and Porsche, who have tried to help find a solution to avoid the Chinese government’s threats to “adopt firm countermeasures” and raise a provisional tariff on imported gasoline cars from the EU.

In a recent report, the EU has eased its proposed tariffs for some Chinese EV automakers, but only by mere percentage points.

China tariffs

EU reduces proposed tariffs for SAIC and Geely

According to a recent Bloomberg report, the EU has reduced some tariffs on Chinese EVs after receiving more information from automakers as part of its anti-subsidy probe. The news comes from someone familiar with the matter who spoke under the condition of maintaining anonymity.

Per the report, the following Chinese automakers will see reduced duties on EVs imported into the European market:

  • SAIC: 37.6% (Previously 38.1%)
  • Geely Automobile Holding: 19.9% (Previously 20%)

As you can see, the reduced tariff percentages are marginal but better than nothing, we suppose. The revised proposed tariffs will add to the existing 10% duty in the EU and apply to the other Chinese automakers—those who cooperated with the anti-subsidy and those who didn’t. Those proposed tariffs are an additional 20.8% (weight average duty) and 37.6% levy, respectively.

Rising EV automaker Build Your Dreams (BYD) was also mentioned in the EU tariff reduction report but will see no change to its proposed duties, which will be 17.4% if and when those tariffs take effect next.

Both China and the EU are reportedly still in talks at the negotiating table, and it appears the former is now settling for a bartered compromise rather than a complete abolishment of the new tariffs. We will keep a close watch on this ongoing story as the EU’s proposed tariffs are scheduled to initially go into effect on July 4 before definitive duties kick in this fall.

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