Russia offered to pump more gas to Europe. But analysts doubt that’s ever going to happen
LONDON — Winter isn’t even upon us yet and Europe is already experiencing a gas market crisis with bumper demand and limited supply, prompting a squeeze on prices in the region.
So when Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped in on Wednesday, offering to increase Russia’s gas supplies to Europe, regional gas prices (up a staggering 500% so far this year) fell and markets breathed a sigh of relief.
Market analysts quickly suspected that the offer to increase supplies to Europe was likely intended to put pressure on Germany to certify the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (which will take Russian gas supplies to Germany via the Baltic Sea) for use, as Russia is waiting on Germany’s energy regulator to authorize the $11 billion pipeline, a process that could take several months.
Experts warned that Russia’s offer demonstrated that Europe is increasingly vulnerable to Moscow’s ability to turn on — and off, more importantly — gas supplies as and when it wants.
While Russia’s apparent largesse might have offered gas markets some respite, analysts have since noted that Russia might not even be able to deliver on promises to supply more.
“Comments from Mr. Putin appear to have provided some comfort to the market. However, whether these additional gas supplies depend on a quick approval of Nord Stream 2 or not may not be the main issue,” Adeline Van Houtte, Europe analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note Thursday.
“Currently, the Russian domestic gas market remains tight, with its inventories running low, output already near its peak and winter looming in Russia as well, limiting gas export capacity,” she said.
“There is also little sign that Gazprom — the Russian gas export pipeline monopoly, which supplies 35% of European gas needs — is attempting to pump more gas to Europe’s spot buyers via existing routes, and overall given its small room for manoeuver, it is unlikely that Gazprom could deliver more than around 190bcm (billion cubic meters) to Europe this year,” she said, warning it meant “European prices are unlikely to cool substantially in 2021.”
Mike Fulwood, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, expressed doubts that Russia is able to supply more gas to Europe too, noting that production is already at record levels.
“Russia’s been faced with the same demand pressures” as elsewhere, he noted.
“It was [a] very cold winter in Russia last winter, and Russian production is actually at record levels,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” “It’s well up on last year of course when demand was down, but it’s also up on 2019 levels, and they’ve been having to refill their own storage as well, which was depleted badly because of the cold weather.”
“So it’s extremely doubtful whether they could supply more gas, whatever the route,” he added.
Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier to Europe has been high on the agenda for policymakers, both in the region and the United States, for several years now.
The last couple of U.S. presidential administrations have been vocal in their disapproval of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 project, warning that it will reduce Europe’s energy security and increase its dependence on Russia. For its part, the U.S. would like to increase its own exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe.
‘They have the capacity’
The International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol seemed convinced that Russia could raise gas supplies to Europe, telling the Financial Times on Thursday that the IEA’s analysis suggested Russia could raise exports by roughly 15% of peak winter supply to the continent.
Calling on Russia to prove itself to be a “reliable supplier,” Birol said the gas exporter could live up to its word if it wants to.
“If Russia does what it indicated yesterday [Wednesday] and increases the volumes to Europe, this would have a calming effect on the market,” he said. “I don’t say they will do it, but if they wish so, they have the capacity to do it.”
On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve a huge spike in global EV sales and a huge dip in Tesla deliveries. Plus a whole bunch of news from Toyota, including an updated bZ that’s just a bit better than before … but is a bit better going to make a big difference?
We’re also on track for more than 1 in 4 new cars sold this year to be electric, with a whole lot more hybrids coming in to make up the difference and drive fuel demand down to a new yearly low. All this, plus the top 5 cheapest EVs to insure when you hit the play button.
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Solar and wind accounted for almost 98% of new US electrical generating capacity added in Q1 2025, according to new Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
Solar and wind also made up an impressive 100% of new capacity in March, and March was the 19th consecutive month in which solar was the largest source of new capacity.
Renewables were 100% of new capacity in March
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through March 31, 2025), FERC says 446 megawatts (MW) of solar were placed into service in March, along with the 223.9 MW Shamrock Wind & Storage Project in Crockett County, TX. Combined, they accounted for 100% of all new generating capacity added during the month.
For the first quarter of the year, the combination of solar and wind (7,076 MW) was 97.8% of new capacity while natural gas (147 MW) provided just 2.0% and another 0.2% came from oil (11 MW).
Solar was 66.6% of new capacity added in March
Solar accounted for two-thirds (66.6%) of all new generating capacity placed into service in March. It was 72.3% of new capacity added during Q1 2025.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month from September 2023 to March 2025.
New wind accounted for the remaining third (33.4%) of capacity additions in March and provided over a fourth (25.5%) of new additions for the quarter.
Solar + wind are 22.5% of US utility-scale generating capacity
The installed capacities of solar (10.7%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Taken together, they constitute almost one-fourth (22.5%) of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
Approximately 30% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than 25% of the country’s total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.5% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are about one-third of total US generating capacity.
Ten years ago, the mix of utility-scale renewables accounted for 16.9% of total installed generating capacity, including solar (1.0%) and wind (5.7%). Thus, over the past decade, wind’s share of US generating capacity has more than doubled while that of solar has increased by more than tenfold.
Solar is still on track to be second-largest
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between April 2025 and March 2028 total 89,452 MW – an amount more than four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,109 MW), the second fastest growing resource. FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 130 MW in biomass capacity.
Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – that is, the bulk of the Trump administration’s remaining time in office – would total 112,119 MW.
On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast, while coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,372 MW and 2,108 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 1,738 MW.
Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be at least 20 times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity, while the electrical output by new wind capacity would be over seven times more than gas.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by April 1, 2028, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (16.3%) of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional 12.6% of the total. Thus, each would be greater than coal (12.4%) and substantially more than either nuclear power or hydropower (7.3% and 7.2%, respectively).
Assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar will likely surpass coal and wind in less than two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity, behind only natural gas.
Renewables may overtake natural gas within three years
The mix of all utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by April 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.5% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity, rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.2%). Solar and wind would constitute more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity. If those trendlines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass that of natural gas in 2029 or sooner.
However, as noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar. If that is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity (small-scale + utility-scale) could approach 330 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would exceed 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 37%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 223,620 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 66,368 MW of new wind, 9,059 MW of new hydropower, 201 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 29,912 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by early spring 2028.
“Notwithstanding the Trump Administration’s anti-renewable energy efforts during its first 100+ days, the strong growth of solar and wind continues,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “And FERC’s latest data and forecasts suggest this will not change in the near-term.”
Electrek’s Take
This is encouraging, but it might change in the longer term, depending on what happens with the House draft budget, in which the Republicans are attempting to end the residential 30% solar tax credit.
Trump and the energy secretary are also doing everything they can to smash renewables and promote fossil fuel growth, thus being out of step with the rest of the world. They’re certainly doing a fine job kicking offshore wind where it counts. Only time will tell in terms of how much damage Trump inflicts.
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Lucid (LCID) is gearing up for big growth this year. After launching its first electric SUV, the Gravity, the company plans to double production this year. According to Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, the EV maker will enter new global markets this year, including parts of Europe and the Middle East.
Lucid is expanding into new global markets in 2025
With over 3,100 vehicles delivered in the first quarter, Lucid set its fifth straight quarterly record. Production is picking up at its Casa Grande manufacturing plant, with 2,213 units built from January to March.
Lucid said the record quarter was achieved despite “limited deliveries in Saudi Arabia” due to a system change that has since been fixed. The company had another 600 vehicles in transit to Saudi Arabia, which will be counted in its second quarter results.
During the Saudi-US Investment Forum on Tuesday, Winterhoff told Bloomberg that Lucid expects to accelerate its global expansion with plans to enter new parts of Europe and the Middle East this year.
“We have started Abu Dhabi and we’re looking into Qatar and other additional markets coming very soon,” Winterhoff said.
Lucid opened its first international manufacturing plant (AMP-2) in Saudi Arabia and has been assembling its Air luxury electric sedan since September 2023. It’s also on track to finish construction on another plant in the region with 150,000 annual production capacity in 2026.
Last week, Lucid’s senior vice president, Adrian Price, announced on social media that the second batch of Gravity models was ready to ship to Saudi Arabia.
Winterhoff told Bloomberg that the company will begin delivering Saudi-made EVs locally the following year while exporting to Europe and parts of Asia, outside of China. Although no details were confirmed, Lucid is considering producing EV batteries in Saudi Arabia through a collaboration.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is Lucid’s top shareholder, with a 60% stake in the company. The investment fund has invested billions in the EV startup as it aims to diversify its GDP beyond oil.
Even with Trump’s auto tariffs, Lucid expects to produce 20,000 vehicles this year, more than double the 9,000 it made in 2024.
The Lucid Gravity Grand Touring model is available to order in the US, starting at $94,900 with up to 450 miles of range. For those looking for something a little cheaper, Lucid will launch the Gravity Touring trim later this year, starting at $79,900.
Lucid ended Q1 with $5.76 billion in liquidity, which it expects will be enough to fund it into the second half of 2026, when it plans to launch its more affordable midsize platform.
Lucid’s stock has risen over 15% since reporting first quarter earnings on May 6, but share prices are still down 12% over the past year at around $2.76.
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